CO
Energy and Environment in Europe Present Status and Future Requirements
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Klaus R.G. Hein Universität Stuttgart
World Population and Energy Consumption [billion] 7
[PJ = 1015J] 400.000
350.000
6
300.000
5
250.000
4
200.000 3
150.000
2
Population Population
1
Energy Consumption TPES
0 1875
1900
100.000 basicneed need (2500 kcal / day) basic (2500 kcal/day*pers) 1925
1950
1975
50.000
0 2000 [year]
Source: BP 2002, US Census Bureau, own calculations
World Energy Consumption, 1970-2020
Projected demand for Europe – 30 (mtoe) 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 1990
2000 Transport
2010 Industry
2020
2030
Domestic, Tertiary source: EU-Energy Green Paper
World primary Energy Supply by Fuel (1971-2020)
__ 200 EJ
100 EJ__
41,86 [EJ] = 1000 [Mt Oil]
World Primary Energy Resources and Consumption Consumption 2001
Reserves (R/P ratio)* 2001
(Total: 9 124,8 Mtoe)
(Total: 317,3 years)
Nuclear Hydro Energy 7% electric 7%
Coal 25%
Natural Gas 24%
Gas 19%
Oil 13%
Oil 38%
Coal 68%
* Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio Sources: BP 2002, own calculations
Prospection: World Fossil Fuel Supply 12
10
8
Btoe
Fuel Total Oil NG Coal
6
4
2
year
Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
2100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
2050
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2000
1995
0
CO2-Content of the Atmosphere 350
340
direct measurement (Mouna Loa)
CO2 [ppm]
330
320
310
300
reconstruction from antartic ice samples
290
280 1750
1800
1850
1900
years
1950
2000
OECD Scenario on Carbon Dioxide Emissions million tons CO2 per year 20000 18000
Eastern Europe
16000
NIS Remaining OECD Japan EU
14000 12000
USA
10000
Remaining Developing Countries
8000
India
6000 4000 2000 0 1990
China
2005
year
2030
2050
Source: Joule-Thermie European Commission DG XII: Science, Research and Development DG XVII: Energy
General Targets: 1. Kyoto Protocol (1997): Reduction of greenhouse gases World (base year 1990):
- 5 % (max. 2012)
2. Regional Commitments: Reduction of CO2- (equivalent) emission Europe:
- 5.2 %
Germany:
- 20 ÷ 25 %
Specific CO2 Emissions CO2 electricity produced
CO2 fuel
C - content of fuel
kg kg
X
CO2 / C massratio
X
kg kWhel
spec. fuel consumption
1 LCV
X
kg kWhel
1 etael
CO2-Emission Factors of different Fuels 1.2
kg CO2/kWh
1
1.1 0.88
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.53
0.52
Natural Gas
Methane
0.4 0.2 0 Low Rank High Rank Coal Coal
Fuel Oil
Dependency of CO2-Emission on Fuel and total Plant Efficiency specific CO2- emission [kg CO2/kWhel]
1.25
brown coal black coal fuel oil light natural gas
1
0.75
0.5
0.25 0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
total net efficiency η el
0.5
0.55
0.6
Developement of Net Power Plant Efficiency 50 Avedore 2 , 460 MW
Hard Coal
Net efficiency
%
Lignite
BoA Plus, 1000 MW
Westfalen D , 350 MW Hemweg 8 , 680 MW
45
Niederaußem K, 960 MW
Staudinger 5 , 550 MW Esbjerg 3 , 400 MW
Lippendorf, 2 x 930 MW
Fynsvaerket 7, 400 MW
40
Boxberg IV 900 MW
Studstrup 3/4, 350 MW
Schwarze Pumpe, 2 x 800 MW Schkopau, 2 x 400 MW Neurath E, 600 MW
35 1970
1980
1990 Year
2000
2010
Combination of cycle process with different media Temperature
usable temperature drop
G
uf a l is e kr s a
conversion efficiency
economy Dampfkreislauf
Entropy
Future Power Station Alternatives Goals:
- CO2 ↓ - other emissions ↓ → spec. fuel consumption ↓ => η ↑
atmospheric: improved combustion/ steam cycle
pressurised: integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
integrated combustion combined cycle (ICCC)
fixed bed fluidized bed entrained flow
fluidized bed hybrid cycle
entrained flow
Present situation • Competitive power station concepts • • • • • • •
Coal: Conventional steam turbine cycle with advanced steam parameters: Combined steam/gas turbine cycle with integrated pressurized combustion (PFBC): Combined steam/gas turbine cycle with integrated pressurized gasification (IGCC):
• Natural gas: • Combined steam/gas turbine cycle:
η = 42–47 % η = 42–45 % η ≅ 45 % η = 50 – 55 %
Sustainable Energy for the Future Security of Supply
Sustainable Energy for the Future Environment Protection
Economical Competitiveness
Sustainable Energy Supply for the Future Requirements Security of supply - anywhere - anytime - sufficient quantities - social acceptability
Environmental protection - local / regional / global - rational use of resources
Economical competitiveness - fuel availability - high efficiency / availability - market prospects - low costs to consumers
- consistency in strategies - long term energy/enviromental policy
Forecast of the Power Plant Capacities in the EC
MW
Total Energy Supply [Mtoe] -100 200 500 800 1100 1400 1700
Domestic Energy Supply
Net Imports
Import Dependency [%] -25% 0% EU 2004 Present Partners Germany France UK Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Sweden Finland Greece Austria Portugal Denmark Ireland Luxembourg New Partners Poland Czech Republic Hungary Slovak Republic Baltic Republics Slovenia Cyprus & Malta
25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 46% 48% 61% 51%
-21% 84% 76% 31% 78% 33% 53% 67% 66% 92% -16% 83% 99% 30% 10% 26% 54% 71% 52% 55% 99%
European Union: Energy Balance of Member StatesSource: IEA 2001
Comparison West/East Germany 1989 kWh € GNP
0,91
0,86
0,49
Electricity utilisation
East
West
0,43 East
West
1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0
10 6 tCE € GNP
Primary energy consumption
Deregulation Deregulation
¬
Liberalisation of the power/electricity market ¼ Competition increase ¼ Concentration of supply industry ¼ Influence of indep. Power production (IPP) ¼ Final price dictates the market (no regional restriction)
Energy-Mix for Stationary Use; Future Options -
Nuclear power
-
Non-C-renewables: -- hydro power -- wind power -- solar power -- others
-
C-renewables: -- biomass -- garbage, wastes
-
Fossil resources: -- natural gas -- solids
CO2-free
„CO2-neutral“
„CO2-rich“
CO2 lean (< 2010)
„CO2-free“ (> 2020)
Total: 1 453 Mtoe Renewables 6%
Solid Fuels 15%
Nuclear 15%
Natural Gas 23%
Oil 41% Source: EUROSTAT, 2001
European Union: Gross Inland Consumption in 2000 (all Fuels)
European Union: Gross Inland Consumption in 2000 (Renewables) Total: 86.6 Mtoe
Hydro 31.9%
Wind 2.2%
Biomass 61.7%
Geothermal 3.8% Solar 0.3% Source: EUROSTAT, 2001
CO2 – reduction process
-
replacement of aging technology
-
CO2 – enrichment by by O2 – combustion
-
CO2 – separation from flue gases (combustion)
-
CO2 – separation from product gases (gasification)
CO2-sequestration, International Projects -
enhanced oil recovery (IEA Weyburn, Canada)
-
enhanced coal bed methane recovery (Canada)
-
saline aquifer CO2-storage (Sleipner, North Sea)
-
mineral carbonization (ZECA; USA)
CO2 – separation; Problem areas
-
longterm development
-
slow market introduction
-
contra – productive to saving resources
-
increase of electricity costs for customers
-
CO2 – sequestration technology at very early stage
Sustainable Energy Systems, EU – roadmap
Short term actions: • Rational use of energy (RES) (storage, distribution, use)
Longer term actions: • Clean fossil fuel utilisation, CO2-capture/sequestration
• Energy efficiency and savings (production, end users)
• Advanced/new concepts for renewable energy utilisation
• Alternative fuels in mobility
• Fuel cell application • Technologies for energy carriers, e.g. H2
Research and Development must be: • • • •
responsible innovative future directed productive
• interdisciplinary • cooperative (industry and science) • EU-wide • applicable for the benefit of the society in Europe and beyond
Future coal fired power stations ongoing actions
“AD 700” “COMTES 700” “Power 21” “FENCO” “POWERCLEAN” “GAME-GT” “CO2-net” “ENCAP” “CASTOR” “Cooretec”
Advanced materials for pulverized fuel technology, EU 5th FP Component test facility EU-RFSC Strategy and technology towards zero emission Cooperation of European governments for clean coal energy Identification of research requirements, EU 6th FP Coordination development for future gas turbines Research requirements for CO2 capture/sequestration, EU 6th FP CO2-lean coal utilisation, EU 6th FP CO2-capture/sequestration, EU 6th FP Research for clean coal technology
Research and Development medium and longer term needs: •
efficiency of steam cycles (45 %
51 %
53 %)
•
efficiency of combined n.g. cycles (58 %
•
optimissation of combustion process (air requirement , NOx )
•
materials development (650 °C
•
steam/gas turbine improvements
•
components and process development
•
fate of trace metals
•
concept for CO2-capture (oxyfuel, CO2-recirculation; CC, IGCC)
•
polygeneration
•
CO2-utilissation and storage
62 %
65 %)
720 °C; > 300 bar)
Energy Supply Strategies – Changes of Orientation Driving forces
Key issues
1950+: Growth - economical development - capacity - market demand - availability 1970+: Environment - emission control - pollution concern - integrated concepts
- liberalisation
1995+: Market - force concentration - short/medium term strategies - life time extension 2000+: Globalisation
- global climate - supply security - competitiveness
- energy supply management - energy mix considerations - public convincement
Future Sustainable Energy Supply General need for: •
Environmentally acceptable processes with marketable products
•
Public awareness that energy is a vital commodity
•
Principle understanding that energy saving is a pertinent requirement
•
Need for long term binding political strategies/directives
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Klaus R.G. Hein Universität Stuttgart
World Population and Energy Consumption [billion] 7
[PJ = 1015J] 400.000
350.000
6
300.000
5
250.000
4
200.000 3
150.000
2
Population Population
1
Energy Consumption TPES
0 1875
1900
100.000 basicneed need (2500 kcal / day) basic (2500 kcal/day*pers) 1925
1950
1975
50.000
0 2000 [year]
Source: BP 2002, US Census Bureau, own calculations
World Energy Consumption, 1970-2020
Projected demand for Europe – 30 (mtoe) 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 1990
2000 Transport
2010 Industry
2020
2030
Domestic, Tertiary source: EU-Energy Green Paper
World primary Energy Supply by Fuel (1971-2020)
__ 200 EJ
100 EJ__
41,86 [EJ] = 1000 [Mt Oil]
World Primary Energy Resources and Consumption Consumption 2001
Reserves (R/P ratio)* 2001
(Total: 9 124,8 Mtoe)
(Total: 317,3 years)
Nuclear Hydro Energy 7% electric 7%
Coal 25%
Natural Gas 24%
Gas 19%
Oil 13%
Oil 38%
Coal 68%
* Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio Sources: BP 2002, own calculations
Prospection: World Fossil Fuel Supply 12
10
8
Btoe
Fuel Total Oil NG Coal
6
4
2
year
Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
2100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
2050
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2000
1995
0
CO2-Content of the Atmosphere 350
340
direct measurement (Mouna Loa)
CO2 [ppm]
330
320
310
300
reconstruction from antartic ice samples
290
280 1750
1800
1850
1900
years
1950
2000
OECD Scenario on Carbon Dioxide Emissions million tons CO2 per year 20000 18000
Eastern Europe
16000
NIS Remaining OECD Japan EU
14000 12000
USA
10000
Remaining Developing Countries
8000
India
6000 4000 2000 0 1990
China
2005
year
2030
2050
Source: Joule-Thermie European Commission DG XII: Science, Research and Development DG XVII: Energy
General Targets: 1. Kyoto Protocol (1997): Reduction of greenhouse gases World (base year 1990):
- 5 % (max. 2012)
2. Regional Commitments: Reduction of CO2- (equivalent) emission Europe:
- 5.2 %
Germany:
- 20 ÷ 25 %
Specific CO2 Emissions CO2 electricity produced
CO2 fuel
C - content of fuel
kg kg
X
CO2 / C massratio
X
kg kWhel
spec. fuel consumption
1 LCV
X
kg kWhel
1 etael
CO2-Emission Factors of different Fuels 1.2
kg CO2/kWh
1
1.1 0.88
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.53
0.52
Natural Gas
Methane
0.4 0.2 0 Low Rank High Rank Coal Coal
Fuel Oil
Dependency of CO2-Emission on Fuel and total Plant Efficiency specific CO2- emission [kg CO2/kWhel]
1.25
brown coal black coal fuel oil light natural gas
1
0.75
0.5
0.25 0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
total net efficiency η el
0.5
0.55
0.6
Developement of Net Power Plant Efficiency 50 Avedore 2 , 460 MW
Hard Coal
Net efficiency
%
Lignite
BoA Plus, 1000 MW
Westfalen D , 350 MW Hemweg 8 , 680 MW
45
Niederaußem K, 960 MW
Staudinger 5 , 550 MW Esbjerg 3 , 400 MW
Lippendorf, 2 x 930 MW
Fynsvaerket 7, 400 MW
40
Boxberg IV 900 MW
Studstrup 3/4, 350 MW
Schwarze Pumpe, 2 x 800 MW Schkopau, 2 x 400 MW Neurath E, 600 MW
35 1970
1980
1990 Year
2000
2010
Combination of cycle process with different media Temperature
usable temperature drop
G
uf a l is e kr s a
conversion efficiency
economy Dampfkreislauf
Entropy
Future Power Station Alternatives Goals:
- CO2 ↓ - other emissions ↓ → spec. fuel consumption ↓ => η ↑
atmospheric: improved combustion/ steam cycle
pressurised: integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
integrated combustion combined cycle (ICCC)
fixed bed fluidized bed entrained flow
fluidized bed hybrid cycle
entrained flow
Present situation • Competitive power station concepts • • • • • • •
Coal: Conventional steam turbine cycle with advanced steam parameters: Combined steam/gas turbine cycle with integrated pressurized combustion (PFBC): Combined steam/gas turbine cycle with integrated pressurized gasification (IGCC):
• Natural gas: • Combined steam/gas turbine cycle:
η = 42–47 % η = 42–45 % η ≅ 45 % η = 50 – 55 %
Sustainable Energy for the Future Security of Supply
Sustainable Energy for the Future Environment Protection
Economical Competitiveness
Sustainable Energy Supply for the Future Requirements Security of supply - anywhere - anytime - sufficient quantities - social acceptability
Environmental protection - local / regional / global - rational use of resources
Economical competitiveness - fuel availability - high efficiency / availability - market prospects - low costs to consumers
- consistency in strategies - long term energy/enviromental policy
Forecast of the Power Plant Capacities in the EC
MW
Total Energy Supply [Mtoe] -100 200 500 800 1100 1400 1700
Domestic Energy Supply
Net Imports
Import Dependency [%] -25% 0% EU 2004 Present Partners Germany France UK Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Sweden Finland Greece Austria Portugal Denmark Ireland Luxembourg New Partners Poland Czech Republic Hungary Slovak Republic Baltic Republics Slovenia Cyprus & Malta
25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 46% 48% 61% 51%
-21% 84% 76% 31% 78% 33% 53% 67% 66% 92% -16% 83% 99% 30% 10% 26% 54% 71% 52% 55% 99%
European Union: Energy Balance of Member StatesSource: IEA 2001
Comparison West/East Germany 1989 kWh € GNP
0,91
0,86
0,49
Electricity utilisation
East
West
0,43 East
West
1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0
10 6 tCE € GNP
Primary energy consumption
Deregulation Deregulation
¬
Liberalisation of the power/electricity market ¼ Competition increase ¼ Concentration of supply industry ¼ Influence of indep. Power production (IPP) ¼ Final price dictates the market (no regional restriction)
Energy-Mix for Stationary Use; Future Options -
Nuclear power
-
Non-C-renewables: -- hydro power -- wind power -- solar power -- others
-
C-renewables: -- biomass -- garbage, wastes
-
Fossil resources: -- natural gas -- solids
CO2-free
„CO2-neutral“
„CO2-rich“
CO2 lean (< 2010)
„CO2-free“ (> 2020)
Total: 1 453 Mtoe Renewables 6%
Solid Fuels 15%
Nuclear 15%
Natural Gas 23%
Oil 41% Source: EUROSTAT, 2001
European Union: Gross Inland Consumption in 2000 (all Fuels)
European Union: Gross Inland Consumption in 2000 (Renewables) Total: 86.6 Mtoe
Hydro 31.9%
Wind 2.2%
Biomass 61.7%
Geothermal 3.8% Solar 0.3% Source: EUROSTAT, 2001
CO2 – reduction process
-
replacement of aging technology
-
CO2 – enrichment by by O2 – combustion
-
CO2 – separation from flue gases (combustion)
-
CO2 – separation from product gases (gasification)
CO2-sequestration, International Projects -
enhanced oil recovery (IEA Weyburn, Canada)
-
enhanced coal bed methane recovery (Canada)
-
saline aquifer CO2-storage (Sleipner, North Sea)
-
mineral carbonization (ZECA; USA)
CO2 – separation; Problem areas
-
longterm development
-
slow market introduction
-
contra – productive to saving resources
-
increase of electricity costs for customers
-
CO2 – sequestration technology at very early stage
Sustainable Energy Systems, EU – roadmap
Short term actions: • Rational use of energy (RES) (storage, distribution, use)
Longer term actions: • Clean fossil fuel utilisation, CO2-capture/sequestration
• Energy efficiency and savings (production, end users)
• Advanced/new concepts for renewable energy utilisation
• Alternative fuels in mobility
• Fuel cell application • Technologies for energy carriers, e.g. H2
Research and Development must be: • • • •
responsible innovative future directed productive
• interdisciplinary • cooperative (industry and science) • EU-wide • applicable for the benefit of the society in Europe and beyond
Future coal fired power stations ongoing actions
“AD 700” “COMTES 700” “Power 21” “FENCO” “POWERCLEAN” “GAME-GT” “CO2-net” “ENCAP” “CASTOR” “Cooretec”
Advanced materials for pulverized fuel technology, EU 5th FP Component test facility EU-RFSC Strategy and technology towards zero emission Cooperation of European governments for clean coal energy Identification of research requirements, EU 6th FP Coordination development for future gas turbines Research requirements for CO2 capture/sequestration, EU 6th FP CO2-lean coal utilisation, EU 6th FP CO2-capture/sequestration, EU 6th FP Research for clean coal technology
Research and Development medium and longer term needs: •
efficiency of steam cycles (45 %
51 %
53 %)
•
efficiency of combined n.g. cycles (58 %
•
optimissation of combustion process (air requirement , NOx )
•
materials development (650 °C
•
steam/gas turbine improvements
•
components and process development
•
fate of trace metals
•
concept for CO2-capture (oxyfuel, CO2-recirculation; CC, IGCC)
•
polygeneration
•
CO2-utilissation and storage
62 %
65 %)
720 °C; > 300 bar)
Energy Supply Strategies – Changes of Orientation Driving forces
Key issues
1950+: Growth - economical development - capacity - market demand - availability 1970+: Environment - emission control - pollution concern - integrated concepts
- liberalisation
1995+: Market - force concentration - short/medium term strategies - life time extension 2000+: Globalisation
- global climate - supply security - competitiveness
- energy supply management - energy mix considerations - public convincement
Future Sustainable Energy Supply General need for: •
Environmentally acceptable processes with marketable products
•
Public awareness that energy is a vital commodity
•
Principle understanding that energy saving is a pertinent requirement
•
Need for long term binding political strategies/directives
