COBALT NEWS CHAIRMAN L. Gellens
(Umicore, Belgium)
COMMENT
VICE CHAIRMEN D. Elliott D. Morgan
(Falconbridge, Canada) (QNI, Australia)
Looking back on 2003, the year started in a lacklustre mood with the perception of a continued oversupply of cobalt resulting in low prices. However, an increase in demand in the battery sector and the realisation of limited amounts of additional metal becoming available from new sources for at least three years resulted in steady price increases from the second quarter of the year. By the time of our rescheduled conference on 19 November 2003, the price had reached nearly US$15.00/lb., the highest level for at least two years.
DIRECTORS I. Akalay (CTT, Morocco) J. Cochrane (Chambishi Metals, Zambia) S. Dunmead (OM Group, USA) J. Koeleman (Eurotungstène, France) T. Kubota (Sumitomo MM, Japan) R. McSweeney (WMC, Canada) B. Rochon (Inco, Canada) T. Shepherd (Shepherd Chemicals, USA)
Another major and probably more significant event was the agreement on 29 October 2003 by the EU Commission on the New Chemicals Policy (NCP). This agreement allowed Parliament and Council negotiations to begin with a view to implementation of the NCP by 2006. The implications of this policy are still vastly underestimated by most in the cobalt industry but without doubt, its implementation will have a major effect on the industry and all stakeholders ignore it at their peril.
THE COBALT DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE 167 High Street, Guildford, Surrey, GU1 3AJ, UK Tel: (0)1483 578877 Fax: (0)1483 573873 e-mail:
[email protected] Website: www.thecdi.com Editor: M Hawkins – Production: I. Porri ISSN: 1353-5587
The importance of the NCP is reflected in the fact that the CDI work is becoming more and more focussed on Health, Safety and Environment issues.
The Cobalt Development Institute carries out activities from a head office in Guildford, UK, to promote the use of cobalt. It is legally incorporated as an association of a wholly non-profit making character in accordance with its memorandum and articles, which are available on request. Membership of the CDI is open to those engaged or interested in the industry, by application and acceptance by the Board.
“Comment” is the responsibility of the Editor. Views expressed by the contributors are their own. Neither necessarily reflect those of the Institute, is directors or its members. Material is presented for the general information of the reader, and whilst believed to be correct, the CDI, its members, staff and contributors do not represent or warrant its suitability for any general or specific use and assume no liability of any kind in connection with the provision of the said information.
Cobalt News exists to disseminate promotion material on uses for, and development in, cobalt technology supported by items of interest to cobalt producers, users and all their customers. Unless otherwise stated as copyright reserved, Cobalt News permits the reprint of articles if fully credited to Cobalt News and its contributors where appropriate.
The Cobalt Development Institute is registered at 167 High Street, Guildford, Surrey, GU1 3AJ. The Cobalt Development Institute is an English Company Limited by Guarantee.
Printed by Graphic Impressions, Merlin House, 23 Parker Road, Chelmsford, Essex CM2 0ES. Telephone: 01245 260349.
2
Eurotungstène Poudres This short article on Eurotungstène Poudres results from a visit to their Grenoble facility by the General Manager and the Administration Manager of the CDI. On 22 August, Eurotungstène became wholly owned by Eramet who acquired the 49 percent stake in the company owned by Sandvik. For over 50 years, Eurotungstène has specialised in the production of metal powders. Today, the company’s main area of activity is in the diamond tool industry.
COUF (CO7106)
Cobalt powder production is via the conventional thermal reduction process but rigid process controls enable powders with specific characteristics to be produced to individual customer requirements. The controls are made throughout the process. Each batch of cobalt is subjected to hot pressing tests in order to ensure the quality and consistency of the powders to comply with customers’ specific requirements.
COF (CO6105)
Five grades of cobalt powder are produced ranging from 0.9 to 3.5 microns with a choice of hardness from 103H Rockwell B to 110 H Rockwell B. The different sizes of powder are shown shown in figure 1. The main role of the cobalt metal matrix is to ensure maximum cutting productivity of the diamond by holding it firmly until it is worn out. For optimum productivity, the matrix must have outstanding mechanical properties. During the cutting operation the diamond is subjected to stress by the stone workpiece. As this stress is transmitted directly to the metal matrix behind the diamond, the mechanical behaviour of the matrix is of great importance. It can be assumed that the best retention of the diamond is achieved when there is no deformation of the matrix, or only reversible (elastic) deformation allowing the matrix to return to its initial shape as soon as the stress ceases. However, if this deformation is not reversible (plastic deformation), the seat of the diamond will open slightly at each stress allowing the diamond to move and eventually to be ejected.
COC (CO6101)
COD (CO6102)
COH (CO6106) Figure 1
Their stability during sintering enable these powders to be sintered by hot pressing over a wide range of temperatures, between 780°C and 950°C: there is no grain growth, thus the fine structure and
Outstanding cutting performances can be achieved with these powders, which give excellent diamond retention due to the particular structure and mechanical properties achieved by sintering.
Cobalt News 04/1
3
NEXT® are composed of alloyed metals of cobalt, iron and copper. This new concept of pre-alloyed powders offers both technical and economical advantages: Significant savings: -
In procurement NEXT® is cheaper than other traditional binders
-
In processing cost due to reduced sintering temperatures
Excellent metal distribution on a much finer scale and greater homogeneity than standard mixtures. Simplified binding component mixing Higher protrusion and stronger diamond retention with enhanced tool performance and life. The products are pure NEXT®, Binary Premixed and NEXT® granules. Pure NEXT®
Fig. 2 – Hardness as a function of sintering temperature (hot pressing)
NEXT®100: the benchmark NEXT® powder, the most used pre-alloyed powder worldwide.
resulting hardness of sintered pieces are kept constant.
NEXT®200: milder properties than NEXT®100
A weak reactivity with diamond guarantees that their cutting ability is kept constant.
NEXT®300: The construction market is subject to strong competition and manufacturers need to maintain the quality of their tools at lower cost. NEXT®300 offers both the technical and economical solution required by the market.
Figure 2 illustrates the variation in hardness of each grade of powder with sintering temperature. As well as cobalt powders, Eurotungstène specialises in the production of metal powders used as additives in the diamond tool industries. These include:
NEXT® premixed Range of NEXT® powders mixed with various additives in order to obtain specific properties for the different applications in the diamond tool market (granite, marble, concrete, asphalt, ceramic, glass…). Depending on the type of material, premixed powders enable optimisation and adaptation of the longevity and the tool speed. These premixed powders constitute a basis that can be adapted to specific requirements by adding traditional additives. Eurotungstène expertise in the field of mixing guarantees an outstanding homogeneity and an excellent dispersion in the bond.
- WC-Co mixed powders - Tungsten metal powders - Carbide powders - Fused tungsten carbide powder Some of the cobalt powders and the mixed WC-Co powders can be supplied in granulated form. In order to provide a better service to its customers and in anticipation of market trends, Eurotungstène has enlarged its product range to include bronze, copper, tin and carbonyl iron powders. This evolution gives its customers a wide range of options in metal binders for the diamond tool industry.
NEXT® granules Range of NEXT® powders in granulated versions produced for use in automated production processes and the production of diamond wires.
As the diamond tool technical leader, Eurotungstène has endeavoured to keep abreast of developments and was the first company to develop prealloyed powders in 1997. The powders known as
Cobalt News 04/1
Pre-alloyed powders composed of 3 metals: Cobalt, Iron and Copper. 3 grades of pure NEXT® are available whose properties can be optimised by mixing with traditional additives.
- NEXT®101, NEXT®201, NEXT®301
4
- MX1181, MX1481 Other premixed powders can be made upon request. Main advantages of NEXT® granules: -
NEXT® granules offer, after sintering, the same properties as non granules NEXT® powders
-
Improved flow properties
-
Easy debinding
-
Very low generation of dust while handling
The full range of Eurotungstène products with their hardness as a function of sintering temperature is shown in figure 3.
Fig.3 – Hardness as a function of sintering temperature
The products enable Eurotungstène to provide the diamond tool industry with materials suitable for a wide range of applications. An indication of the uses of the different binders is shown in figure 4.
Figure 4
Cobalt News 04/1
5
Postponed until the next meeting in May 2004. The CDI has been asked to provide data on the presence and effects of cobalt in testicular tissue and solubility data for CoCO3. Hence it has some work to do in preparation of the May 2004 meeting.
Meeting of the European Chemicals Bureau (ECB) Working Group on Classification of CMR (Cancer, Mutagenicity, Reproductive Toxicity) Substances concerning Cobalt Related Issues (Ispra, Italy, 17-19 November 2003)
•
A few weeks prior to the meeting, the Institute was advised that the agenda for the meeting of this working group included consideration of hazard classifications for various cobalt compounds proposed by the German delegation. In view to the great importance to the cobalt industry, the CDI mobilised itself and made submissions on the subjects to the EU representatives on the Working Group. In addition, the meeting was considered so important that Dr. Tom Brock, the CDI toxicologist, was diverted from the Institute annual conference to attend the meeting.
Proposal to place water soluble cobalt(II) salts in Category 3 for mutagenicity (Cat. 3 R68): Postponed until the next meeting in May 2004. Both in vitro and in vivo data support a concern for mutagenicity. Finland pointed out that the in vivo study cited did not fit standardised test criteria because it was not GLP. The WG have previously agreed that mutagenicity studies fit standardised criteria. This was an unexpected outcome. Once again the CDI will need to carry out some work on this issue in preparation for the May 2004 meeting.
•
Proposal to place elemental cobalt, cobalt(II) oxide and cobalt(II) sulphate in Category 3 for cancer concerns (Cat. 3 R40): Postponed until new data are available. The working group generally agreed that the routes of exposure cited (injection and implantation of powders) were not relevant to human exposures. In addition, the routes of exposure were not associated with distant tumour formation. As no new data were available, the working group felt the information insufficient with which to make classification decisions. The WG agreed they would wait for new data. Although the CDI reported the ensuing NTP study with Co powder, the WG did not mention it as specifically being the reason. The CDI will continue to closely monitor this issue.
General The meeting was attended by delegates of the EU Members States and Norway. Representatives from Malta, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Hungary and Slovakia (soon to become EU Member States) attended but had no vote. Industry was represented by CONCAWE, Eurofer, CEFIC and Eurometaux (i.e. Tom Brock and Paola DiDiscordia of the European Nickel Group). Attendance at the meeting gave Tom Brock the opportunity to speak with delegates from The Netherlands (Henk Rolfzema), the UK (Richard Cary) and Belgium (Thaly Lukhanisky) prior to the issues being discussed.
Issues for the CDI Health Safety and Environment Committee to consider:
The cobalt issues were tabled on the last day of the meeting with the German delegation presenting the proposed classification dossiers. Tom’s impression was that the ECB is “speciating” the cobalt compounds for classification. They have prepared separate classification dossiers for each substance and agreed to discuss each separately. This approach is good for the industry because speciation allows focus on the substances that need attention without necessarily wasting time and resources on others that do not.
Reproductive Toxicity of Cobalt: The possibility remains that water soluble cobalt(II) salts will be classified Category 2 reproductive toxins. The CDI is currently planning to conduct a preliminary risk assessment study for reproductive toxicity. The outcome of this study should provide the CDI with forward guidance. In the near future we will have to decide whether conducting risk assessment alone is sufficient or whether animal studies should be included to refute classification pressure.
Attendance at the meeting also gave Tom Brock the opportunity to familiarise himself with the procedures of the WG. In this respect, he found that final action can be taken on substances that are up for a first discussion as was cobalt. Such action might have been taken with cobalt had the CDI not presented a dossier, not been present at the meeting and not made preliminary contacts with The Netherlands, the UK and Belgium delegates.
Mutagenicity: The current data on water soluble cobalt(II) salts support at least a concern for mutagenicity. The mutagenicity issues will be addressed in an upcoming workshop in April 2004. This issue is “poor” in terms of data useful for risk assessment. Recommendations from the workshop should guide the CDI future approach. Cancer: The CDI has taken a proactive stance in this area. It should continue to stress route of exposure and speciation of cobalt compounds in relation to carcinogenicity issues. Development of exposure data for risk assessment is the highest priority for cobalt and cancer issues.
Outcomes related to cobalt classification proposals •
Proposal to place water soluble cobalt(II) salts in Category 2 for fertility effects (Cat. 2, R60):
Cobalt News 04/1
6
Cobalt-Carboxylate Driers for Paints Summary Driers, also referred to as siccatives when in solution, are organometallic compounds soluble in organic solvents and binders [ref. 1]. Chemically, driers belong to the class of metal soaps and they are added to air-drying coating systems to accelerate or promote after application the transformation from the liquid film into the solid stage within an appropriate time. The oxidative cross-linking is catalysed by the cation of the drier. The anionic part of the drier molecule serves as the carrier, to solubilise the drier in the binder system.
Paints and other coating systems form a solid layer during the film-forming process where different physical and chemical processes are important. Oxidative drying is a process in which the evaporation of solvents is followed with an oxidation process of the unsaturated binder under influence of air-oxygen. This air-drying process is accelerated by the application of catalysts, referred to as driers. Cobalt-carboxylate is the most active and widely used drier in air-drying alkyd paints.
The first liquid driers were offered to the industry in the 1930s and were based on naphthenic acid, a crude oil fraction. Nowadays predominantly synthetic acids are used for the formulation of driers, for instance 2-ethyl hexoic acid or iso-nonanoic acid.
Introduction Air drying alkyd paints contain besides the main constituents (alkyd resins (binders), pigments and solvents), small amounts of driers (table 1). Driers speed up the oxidative cross-linking of unsaturated fatty acids, which are present as constituents of alkyd resins.
The role of Cobalt in the drying process of paints The drying process of alkyd paint is the result of the slow evaporation of the volatile components (physical drying) and in a second step chemical drying takes place. The oxidative cross-linking process of alkyd resins occurs via a radical reaction in which H-atoms are abstracted from the double methylene group of linoleic acid. The resulting radicals take up atmospheric oxygen and form hydroperoxides. The hydroperoxides degrade with Cobalt catalyst into alkoxy and peroxy radicals. These radicals form cross-links by recombination (initially dimerization). This process is known as “the autoxidation cross-link process” (figure 1).
Table 1 – Typical solvent-borne alkyd paint compostion Component
Weight (%)
Binder: alkyd resin
30
Volatile components, mainly mineral spirits
41
Pigments like TiO2
25
Additives: driers (eg Co-Zr-Ca)
2
Additives: other (incl. Anti-skinning agent)
2
-H.
(R.)
. OO
+ O2
+ H. HOO
(ROO .)
Catalyst
RR, ROR und ROOR
.O (RO .)
. OO
(ROOH) (ROO . ) Figure 1: Schematic presentation of the autoxidation process of alkyd resins
Cobalt News 04/1
7
Autoxidation reactions occur at significant rates only in presence of a catalyst, such as a transition metal [ref. 1, 2, 3].
formation of an irregular, wrinkled dry surface. This results from faster drying of the surface of the paint than the interior part of the layer. In order to improve trough-drying, hardness and stability, auxiliary driers, like Zirconium and Calcium, are being used in conjunction with Cobalt.
The autoxidation process referring to the drying of paints is accelerated by addition of driers. Without these drying catalysts the paint layer may dry only after some months; with driers this is accomplished within a few hours. In detail, chemical drying by oxidation can be a combination of four steps:
3. Cobalt and other Drier Metals Essentially, the metals are divided into two groups: active driers and auxiliary driers. Active driers promote at ambient temperatures oxygen uptake, peroxide formation and peroxide decomposition (ref. 1, 3). Auxiliary driers do not show catalytic activity themselves at ambient temperatures, but enhance the activity of the active drier metals (table 2).
- Step 1: Induction period - Step 2: Peroxide formation - Step 3: Peroxide decomposition into free radicals - Step 4: Polymerisation The induction step is measured from the time the coating is applied until the film begins to absorb oxygen from the air. The absorbed oxygen forms peroxides across the conjugated double bonds in the binder (step 2). When the peroxides start to decompose, active cross-linking sites are formed. As crosslinking proceeds during the polymerisation, the viscosity increases rapidly.
Table 2 – Active and Auxiliary Driers Active Driers Cobalt Manganese Iron Cerium Vanadium Lead
Step 2 and 4 proceed most effectively with resins containing conjugated double bonds; however, nonconjugated but poly-unsaturated resins also show some reactivity. In such a case the multiple double bonds may cause the activation of the various methylene groups, to rearrange the position of the non-conjugated double bonds, depending on the original position of the double bonds. The steps 1 and 2 (induction and peroxide formation) are accelerated dramatically by the presence of Cobaltdriers.
Cobalt is the most important and most widely used drier metal of all. No other metals are known which can show a similar effectiveness at room temperature. Cobalt is primarily an oxidation catalyst and as such acts as a surface drier. The red-violet colour of Cobalt-carboxylates may affect the colour of the liquid paint if used at higher concentrations. However, the colour of the dried paint layer is hardly affected.
The mutivalent metals in the drier system act as oxygen carriers because of their susceptibility to redox reactions. Cobalt also activates the formation of peroxides; it is assumed that the multivalent metal is associated to the double bonds, increasing the oxidation susceptibility. The addition of a cobalt drier reduces the energy, which is necessary for the activation of the oxygen absorption by an unsaturated resin by a factor 10 [ref. 4].
Manganese is an active drier as well, though less effective than Cobalt; moreover, Manganese is not preferred for use in white paints as it affects the colour. The other active driers as mentioned in table 2 are actually of lower commercial value.
The penetration of activated oxygen into the film favours the peroxide formation. As soon as peroxides are formed their decomposition in a metal-catalysed reaction to alkoxy (RO•) and peroxy radicals (ROO•) takes place (figure 2).
Initiation: RH
→
R· + H·
Propagation: R· + O2 ROO· + RH ROOH + Mn+1 ROOH + Mn+
Drier systems for ambient cured decorative paints based on long oil alkyd resins are usually siccativated using a Cobalt-based drier mixture. Cobalt is the most active drier, speeds up the drying process at very low levels; typically just around 0.05% Co on resin solids will be needed. Cobaltcarboxylate is commercially available in various concentrations. A commonly used quality is “Cobalt 10”, a liquid Co-carboxylate solution in mineral spririts and containing 10% Co metal.
→ → → →
ROO· ROOH + R· ROO· + Mn+ + H+ RO· + Mn+1 + OH-
→ →
ROOR + 1O2 ROH + R = O + 1O2
Termination+ 2 ROO· 2 ROO·
Figure 2 – Reactions during the autoxidation crosslinking process
Used alone the Cobalt catalyst could lead to the Cobalt News 04/1
Auxiliary Driers Barium Zirconium Calcium Bismuth Zinc Potassium Strontium Lithium
8
From the auxiliary driers, Calcium is most widely used with Cobalt and typically also with Zirconium. Calcium promotes drying under adverse weather conditions such as low temperature and high humidity. Loss-of-dry problems during long storage times of paints can be reduced using calcium as an auxiliary drier. Calcium drier helps to improve hardness and gloss. Zirconium improves through drying and complexes Cobalt, thus affecting the catalytic effect of Cobalt.
procedures in order to collect data for the bioavailability of Cobalt, used as a drier in paints. Nevertheless, the pressure to replace Cobalt driers with Cobalt-free alternatives is growing. Recently replacements for Cobalt carboxylate based driers have been proposed using metal-complexes based on Manganese (ref. 4). Considerable improvements have been made in comparison to conventional Manganese-carboxylates. However, Cobalt-carboxylates are still needed because of their better drying efficiency, much better hardness development as well as best optical properties and general performance properties in paints.
4. Developments in relation to the use of Cobalt driers. For decades Cobalt has been the main active drier used in air-drying paints. However, as the result of recent studies with Cobalt sulphate heptahydrate, Cobalt-driers are subject to re-classification procedures. This, in spite of their important role in the drying of alkyd paints. Cobalt driers are considered as being potentially carcinogenic in aerosols (ref.4). Hence, Germany is no longer granting the Blue Angel award to Cobalt-containing paints. Together with the trend to reduce the amount of volatile solvents in paints, this gives rise to health, safety and environmental issues in relation with the use of conventional alkyd paints.
References: 1: J H Bieleman, Ed. in “Additives for Coatings”, Wiley-VCH, Weinheim, New York, 2000, chapter 7.1 2: M Fabrizio, internal report ATO B.V., P.O. Box 17, 6700 AA Wageningen, Neth., January 2001 3: Company brochure “Driers”, Sasol Servo B.V.; www.servo.nl 4: J H Bieleman, Fatipec Congress 2002, Dresden, Poster Session. This article was written by Johan Bieleman, SasolServo BV, P.O. Box 1, NL-7490 AA Delden, The Netherlands. For further information, he can be contacted as
[email protected] The classification for Cobalt driers has not been changed yet, as it is still unclear if the toxicity data as found for water soluble compounds like Cobalt sulphate heptahydrate are relevant for Cobalt driers. Drier manufacturers have initiated several test-
IMPORTANT INFORMATION REGARDING COBALT NEWS Several issues ago, we informed our readers that Cobalt News was available on our website and we asked them whether they still wished to receive a hard copy of the magazine. The majority of the readership elected to download Cobalt News from our website and consequently, very few hard copies are now being printed and sent, although the cost of printing it remains high. We have therefore decided to discontinue the issue of a hard copy and as of the April edition, Cobalt News will only be available on the CDI website. We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause any of our readers.
www.thecdi.com Cobalt News 04/1
9
Cobalt Now and in the Future recycling. The latter includes Ni and Co alloys and catalysts and more recently end of life batteries Li-ion and Lithium Polymer (LP) batteries and to a lesser extent NiMH batteries. Battery recycling is an exciting and challenging business opportunity which we expect to grow rapidly due to product stewardship and legislative responsibilities. We are also excited about the CoPt GTL catalyst market.
Introduction The cobalt market of today is a small but significant part of the non ferrous metals industry. It continues to play a vital role across many different industry sectors, it still is a significant contributor to the economic success of several countries and as always, cobalt can bring the unexpected.
Demand
Today, I would like to touch on three area of general interest to producers, consumers and journalists alike. These are: -
Since we are talking about demand, lets first start with a comparison of today’s market to that of 1990 for clues where we expect it to go in the future. Current cobalt demand is about 40,000 mt compared to about 28,000mt in 1990, giving average annual growth of 3.2%. The demand for cobalt has evolved and changed. Back then, the biggest market was superalloys, and batteries were a mere blip on the screen. Today, superalloys are still a significant component of demand, especially for producers of high grade cobalt, but the chemical sector has become the dominant sector, rising to 48% of demand. Within this sector, batteries and catalysts stand out as the top performers, and are one of the main reasons for the growth of the cobalt market over the last ten years. We expect them to remain a bright spot into the future.
Supply – current status and a perspective on the future, Demand – past, present and the future, and, How does cobalt supply and demand impact price trends?
First, a few words about Falconbridge International.
Who is Falconbridge and what do we do? Falconbridge International Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Falconbridge Limited, a leading low cost producer of nickel, copper, cobalt and platinum group metals. Last year Falconbridge Limited produced approx. 100,000 mt of nickel 450,000 mt of copper, 4,000 mt of cobalt and 145,000 mt of zinc.
Cobalt battery demand mainly comes from LiCoO2 type cathode materials which are the mainstay of Li-ion and LiP batteries. These batteries typical contain 15-20% cobalt. There is also a need for cobalt additives to NiMH and NiCd batteries. Demand is expected to continue to grow for the foreseeable future as cobalt based Li-ion and LP type batteries are well established and offer a good mix between cost, performance and reliability.
Falconbridge International is an industry leader in the recycling business and is one of the world’s largest recyclers of cobalt bearing materials. Various raw material feeds are sourced from around the world for toll treatment through Falconbridge’s metallurgical facilities. These include mine based feeds – ore, concentrate, matte and various residues; secondary feeds from metal producing industries such as superalloy production scrap, plating sludges and industrial residues; and, end of life
Graph 2 illustrates the rapid growth of the secondary battery market in terms of value. The rapid increase in demand for portable consumer electronics is driving this trend. Cellular phones are the leading market for Li-ion and LiP batteries
Graph 1: End Use Demand - 1999 vs. 2002
Cobalt News 04/1
10
fuel. If battery demand is leading the way into the future then gas to liquid (GTL) cobalt based catalysts will certainly be a close second.
6000 5000 LP
4000
The two stage conversion from natural gas to diesel NiMH fuel and other specialty NiCd products is now a viable commercial process and is part of the solution to meeting clean fuel legislation. Two large scale commercial GTL plants – one in Qatar and the second in Nigeria – are slated for a 2005 start with an initial capacity of approximately 34,000 bpd each. Most major oil companies have development programs underway. The potential is large, which is why most cobalt chemical companies and process developers are not divulging too much. It can be estimated that by 2015, 1,000,000 bpd of equivalent oil intake will be produced via GTL using well over 2,000mt of cobalt per year.
1000
99CY
97CY
95CY
93CY
91CY
89CY
87CY
0
Source: Institute of Information Technology 2003
leading market for Li-ion and LiP batteries with a 60% share. Cellular phone demand in 2003 is set to top 450 million units, a 10% increase from 2002. The bottom line on batteries is that by 2005 this application is set to demand well over 7,000mt. Turning to cobalt catalysts, it is difficult to get a true indication of demand in this sector. The whole area of cobalt chemical demand is shrouded in secrecy and for a “metals” man, organic chemistry is a bit of a mystery to begin with. However we will try to put some numbers to this important growth area. The catalytic properties of cobalt are put to use in a number of applications including, rubber to metal adhesives in tyres, paint dryer promoters in oil based paints, as hydrogen desulphurisation (HDS) catalysts for sulphur removal from petroleum feedstock and as oxidation catalysts.
03CY
2000
01CY
Li-ion
3000
85CY
Total sales of cell suppliers(US$ Million)
Graph 2: Growth of Rechargeable Batteries
So the future demand prospects for cobalt appear strong. The OECD composite leading indicator has been rising since the fall of 2002 and shows 4 straights months of strength. Cobalt demand is tied to both global consumer and capital spending and has a good mix between the two. For example, while the industrial gas turbine and jet engine markets are still going through a tough time, consumer demand for cell phones, digital cameras and digital tapes for camcorders is once again on the rise. At this point there does not appear to be any major
The two major areas of growth for catalysts over the last ten years have been CoMo HDS catalysts for low sulphur hydrocarbon Table 1: Refined Cobalt Availability products and Co acetate for purified Company/Country 1999 2000 2001 terephthalic acid (PTA) production. PTA is mainly used in producing polyester 470 1,200 1,200 CTT Morocco fibre and polyethylene terephthalate 5,180 4,320 3,199 Gecamines (PET). The growth has been in PET res3,946 3,342 4,665 Zambia ins and film for commercial packaging 77 420 634 Kasese applications like soft drink bottles and for 320 320 252 South Africa beer drinkers, the new plastic “bud” bot4,009 3,433 3,314 Falconbridge tle. CoMo catalysts have benefited and 6,200 7,700 8,100 OMG will continue to benefit from clean fuel 180 204 199 Eramet legislation. Amongst other jurisdictions, 950 1,110 1,090 Umicore both the EU and the US have lowered 4,000 4,100 4,600 Norilsk the permissible level of sulphur in diesel 221 311 350 Sumitomo and gasoline. For example, by 2006 US 1,539 1,520 1,818 QNI refineries must lower their average sul83 925 1,452 Murrin Murrin phur level in gasoline to 30ppm from 79 192 203 Bulong over 300ppm at present. 1,200 1,200 1,470 China 120 206 250 India This has lead the way not only to in2,770 2,855 2,943 ICCI creased demand for existing catalysts 1,420 1,470 1,450 Inco but to new catalyst development, two 630 792 889 Tocantins stage hydrodesulphurization and the use 1,679 3,083 1,893 DLA of natural gas conversion technology to Total Availability 35,073 38,704 39,971 produce synthetic crude which can be *2003 figures based on 6 month data only further refined into products like diesel Cobalt News 04/1
11
2002
2003*
1,100 2,149 6,144 450 256 3,993 8,200 176 1,135 4,200 354 1,863 1,838 200 1,842 270 3,065 1,480 960 1,284 40,959
1,000 1,200 6,500 0 250 4,500 7,600 200 1,200 4,600 398 1,840 1,752 0 2,100 280 3,220 1,000 960 2,000 40,600
Source: CDI
threat to cobalt demand for the near future, with one caveat.
Table 2: Export of Cobalt Ore and Concentrate from Congo/RSA/Namibia
I must stress that while cobalt demand plays a positive environmental role – such as in contributing to lower sulphur emissions from gasoline - the cobalt industry must also ensure that cobalt is not negatively impacted by environmental legislation. The European Union’s New Chemical Policy is of major concern to the cobalt industry and other non ferrous metals and chemicals. Although righteous in purpose, it is threatening to unduly legislate and restrict market access for cobalt.
China Finland India Total
Turning to the supply side of the cobalt market, it appears that after a number of years of new project announcements, false promises, bankruptcies and company reorganizations some sense of stability is emerging in the industry. Last year was certainty a transition year. The full significance is only now starting to surface as production statistics slowly trickle out.
2002 28,747 65,558 1,985 96,290
Table 2 shows the exports of cobalt ores and concentrates from the Congo, South Africa and Namibia over the last four years, as reported by the country of import. We are making the assumption that the majority of this material is from the Congo. We are only showing the most significant export countries but there are others including Belgium. Furthermore, these numbers do not include higher grade intermediates such as cobalt matte and oxide. Although incomplete and some interpretation is needed, it does identify a trend. In fact, it confirms that the Congo still plays a significant role in the supply of cobalt today. Even though many companies and/or countries are cobalt “producers” much of the supply still comes, and will continue to come from the Congo. I estimate that the Congo accounted for about 28% of mine based feed supply in 2002 – and this does not take into consideration the DLA deliveries, which are essentially made up of past Congolese production.
Table 1 is a list of cobalt availability as compiled by the CDI for 1999-2002. The story is more complete if we also look at the first 6 month data from 2003 on an annualized basis - normally not a truly valid assumption to make but in this case it does explain the state of the market at present, and probably a good approximation for the year. The most significant observations are a steady increase from OMG and Murrin Murrin, recent large increases from Zambia, due to the presence of Chambishi Metals and a steady decrease from the Congo. We can also see the effect of low metal prices on the ramp up and exit of Kasese, which has been sold and put on care and maintenance. What we cannot see from the numbers is the liquidation of the Canmine assets, who were on the doorstep of production, and the flight of capital from any new cobalt potential projects. Sustained low metal prices also had an adverse impact in the restructuring at OMG, Chambishi Metals and Murrin Murrin and the receivership of Bulong.
Turning to China, Table 3 shows the increasing significance of this country to cobalt supply. Cobalt production in China, other than at Jinchuan, the major Ni/Cu/Co producer, tends to be a bit difficult to analyse due to the sheer size of the country and the large number of small companies using intermediate feed materials to produce cobalt products. As shown previously, after Finland, China is the main recipient of Congolese intermediate cobalt – but China also imports from Australia, Morocco and Cuba and secondary feeds from Korea and Japan to name but two. Increased production in China reflects the expanding domestic appetite for cobalt. Unwrought cobalt and cobalt oxide imports are also on the rise.
Table 3: Ore & Concentrate Imports to China
2003 ytd
38,050
Source: Chinese I/E stats
Cobalt News 04/1
2001 16,579 60,704 237 77,520
It is not anticipated that at current prices we will see any large swings in production from the existing list of producers with two exceptions. A closer look at the Congo and China are warranted. The changing fortunes of Gecamines – mainly the effect of sustained low copper and cobalt prices are obvious from the numbers. However, Congolese based production in general is probably one of the most misunderstood and yet most interesting aspect of supply. Although Gecamines metal production is today a fraction of what it was in the past, the Congo still overwhelmingly dominates the cobalt world. A number of Gecamines joint ventures and other entrepreneurial start ups continue to export various feeds including high grade ore, concentrate, intermediate cobalt chemicals and white alloy.
Supply
2002 24,226 4,521 6,685 117 2,140 227 37,916
2000 11,033 54,827 123 65,983
Source: Country I/E stats
The Cobalt Development Institute and its member companies are working hard both individually and cooperatively to ensure that there is a balance in legislation and that decisions are based on scientific facts and not political fiction.
Congo RSA/Namibia Cuba Morocco Australia Japan Total
1999 2,265 43,769 0 46,034
12
Focusing now on the Table 4: Potential to meet increased demand? Location Cobalt Capacity DLA, we are begin- Projects (mt/yr) (full production) ning to see the light Current Upside Potential at the end of the OMG/GGF/GCM – STL “Big Hill” Dem. Republic of Congo 5,000 5,000-6,000 DRC tunnel. A program Gecamines/Forrest – Luiswishi that started in 1993 Mine & Co. Concentrator 2,000-5,000 to only sell a limited White Alloy/Chemical Producers DRC quantity of low grade cobalt has success- Future Potential Ni Based 750 Philippines fully emptied the Sumitomo – Coral Bay 2006 700 Canada-Newfoundland cupboard of all but Inco – Voisey’s Bay 2006 4,000 New Caledonia approximately 10.5 Inco – Goro million pounds of cobalt as of the be- Future Potential Cu/Co Based 7,000 DRC ginning of Septem- AMF – Kolewezi 3,000-8,000 DRC ber 2003. At the cur- TM – Tenke Fungurume 2,000 Zambia rent pace and as- Chambishi Cu Mine suming congresGraph 3 shows the monthly MB and Ryan’s Notes sional approval, the DLA cobalt stock will be de99.3% spot cobalt quotation for the past 5 ½ years. pleted in calendar year 2005. Twice in this time frame, these market transaction indictors have bottomed at around the 6 USD/lb One last note on supply. If demand does continue level. Twice we have seen market reactions to to grow, cobalt availability can be expanded. Table these prices levels on the supply side. It appears 4 lists a number of underutilized operations which clear that at a price level of around 6.00 USD/lb a can ramp up production, along with potential new percentage of primary cobalt supply (i.e. not byprojects. The “Big Hill” joint venture project is reproduct cobalt) is not economical and thus there is ported to be operating below design capacity, as is a natural floor. Moreover, what may not be so evithe Luiswishi mine and concentrator. Several indent is that the cobalt market needs cobalt based termediate alloy plants in the Congo continue to production and a severe shortage would occur if produce cobalt units with varying success. On the only by-product cobalt was economic to produce. If nickel side, there are at least three projects that we include Congolese production as cobalt dehave potential to add not insignificant amounts of pendent, at least 42% of all supply is coming from cobalt to the market over the next 2 to 5 years. And cobalt based assets – a supply that is needed by in Africa, there are several large potential Cu/Co the market. projects, the biggest of which are shown here.
Conclusion
How does cobalt Supply and Demand Impact Price Trends?
In conclusion, with all the evidence presented, we hope you have a better appreciation of the dynamics influencing the cobalt market of today. We are certainly entering an interesting time for supply and demand. Both of which are poised to grow, thus maintaining a healthy market well into the future.
In the cobalt market, price extremes are driven more by supply than by demand conditions. Over the last several years, we have been operating in a price environment bounded by the extremes of about 6.00 USD/lb and 15 USD/lb., with prices lately trending more to the bottom end. Within this range, a demand increase can be met with an elastic supply. Supply can relatively quickly be increased from known resources, existing capacity can be maximized and incremental expansions are possible. A spike outside this price range is therefore only reasonable with a supply disruption. This could occur with a major disruption at a smelter or refinery or due to any unforeseen occurrence like political unrest. What about at the low end of the price band – how low can the price go? Again the key is supply. Even a complete demand collapse will have a limited effect on price – i.e. a limited effect on the bottom price range. Cobalt News 04/1
This paper was presented by David Elliott, Falconbridge International Ltd at the Ryan’s Notes conference in October 2003. Further details are available at:
[email protected].
Graph 3: Ryan’s Notes and MB 99.3% Price Reference
13
6 Monthly Production Statistics Update Table 1: CDI 6 Months Refined Cobalt Production Statistics (Tonnes) 1995 CTT Eramet Falconbridge Gécamines ICCI Inco OMG QNI Sumitomo Umicore Zambia* TOTAL Total 12 M. %6 M. of 12
1996
1997
1370 1996 784 739 1687
1459 2992 945 860 1900
1880 1032 1108 820 2390
122
112
117
1092 7790 17445 44.65
2527 10795 20894 51.67
1880 9227 21383 43.15
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
100
128 85 2030 2605 1327 820 2800 705 32 400 2314 13263 26885 49.33
600 109 2075 1470 1460 780 3560 720 126 600 893 12393 26439 46.87
600 111 1469 1673 1386 830 3745 1035 171 540 1222 12782 26452 48.32
620 94 2103 964 1537 790 3900 910 167 590 2189 13864 27859 49.76
500 112 2300 560 1610 517 3800 920 199 600 2541 13659
1849 2041 1080 908 2470 545 169 600 2646 12493 26319 47.47
* Chambishi Metals only beginning 2000
The refined cobalt production figure for Gécamines for the six months ending 30 June 2003 is now available. This figure is included in Table 1 which shows cobalt production from CDI members. It can be seen that total production by CDI members is 205 tonnes less than the same period in 2002. Taking this figure into consideration, total refined cobalt availability in the first six months of 2003 is 21,771 tonnes, 1,960 tonnes higher than the same period in 2002. However, as stated in the October 2003 issue of Cobalt News, care should be taken in interpreting these data as the accuracy of reporting data in 2003 has vastly improved as compared to previous years, particularly in the case of Russia and China.
Met-Chem Technology Acquires The Hall Chemical Company “We’ve taken great care to insure that a highly experienced management team is in place. This team does include former employees of The Hall Chemical Company. The facility and the fine reputation of Hall provides the platform we need to provide full-cycle service to our customers.”
Wickliffe, OH, (November 12, 2003) – Met-Chem Technology, Inc. announced today the acquisition of the former Hall Chemical Company assets for an undisclosed price. The purchase includes the manufacturing facility in Wickliffe, as well as its associated equipment. Met-Chem Technology, Inc. is a privately owned specialty chemicals company offering nickel and cobalt full-cycle (supply and reclamation) product management to North American, European and Asian companies.
The headquarters will remain in Wickliffe. Additional information will be available shortly on our website – Metchem.org
“We are excited to begin January production at the Met-Chem facility,” said Edward Kielty, President. Cobalt News 04/1
14