Company Presenation Master
Press conference 100% renewable energy Affordable and feasible for Switzerland? Bern May 3, 2011
Page 1 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Page 2 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Oerlikon is a provider of clean-technology solutions 100 years history of turning innovations into sales Oerlikon Solar
Oerlikon Systems
Leading provider of silicon based thin film solar technology
Advanced nanotechnology for solar cells, thermoelectric generators and batteries
Oerlikon Coating
Oerlikon Fairfield
Leading coatings in the automotive sector: - 10x durability - 4% less energy consumption
Loose gears and gearboxes for wind turbines
Oerlikon Graziano
Oerlikon Vacuum
Vacuum solutions for the solar and wind industry Employees Revenue 2010 Page 3 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Transmissions for hybrid and electrical cars 16,000/at over 150 locations CHF3,6 bn
Solar technologies overview Solar Power
Concentrated Solar Power
Photovoltaic (PV)
… concentrate sunlight to heat source fluid for a conventional power plant. CSP cannot be deployed at small scale and geographic range is limited
… direct conversion of sunlight into electricity through photoelectric effect. PV supports broad functional applications from roof-tops to large farms at competitive energy value Thin Film Technologies
Wafer based c-Si
Market Share
* Includes Ribbon Silicon ~ 2%
Page 4 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
83%*
TF-Si
3%
Oerlikon Solar … a pioneer in Thin Film Silicon technology
CdTe
13%
CIGS
1%
Photovoltaic (PV) technologies attributes Wafer based
Thin Film Technologies
c-Si
Long energy payback Susceptible to poly Si price fluctuations Complicated manufacturing process Higher cost Upside potential not significant for further cost reduction Proven production
TF-Si
Page 5 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Shortest energy payback Abundant raw material Non-toxic/Clean Favorable behavior in high temperature & low light conditions Proven production Upside for technology & cost improvements Simpler manufacturing process Low material requirement Favorable CoO
CdTe
Limited production due to exotic/rare material Use of toxic material Technology not available on open market for new manufacturing Favorable CoO due to GW scale production
CIGS
Use of exotic/rare material Use of toxic material Good lab results but not production proven Complex process To date high investment cost with low results
Drivers for photovoltaic (PV) growth Fundamentals do not change Energy Demand
Conventional Energy Costs
+577% PV Growth (GW)
12.1
CAGR 61%
Fossil Resources
Environmental Regulations
5.8
1.8
2006
National Security
Page 6 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
7.1
2.7
2007
2008
2009
2010
Module Capacity and Module Demand 1. Module Capacity utilization rates have historically been 50-65%
Module Capacity (GW) Module Capacity (Low Case) Module Capacity (Base Case) 50
Series
Module Demand (GW) Series Accelerated Module Demand Scenario 43 Europe
Japan
30
US
26
RoW
14
16 1
14
5 2008
26
2
3
2 2 4
2011
2012
2013
6
2009
2010
2008
2009
2010
11
10
11
2007
52%
Reduction in module prices and PV power costs (€/kWh)
19 2
3. Historically, Module Demand has exceeded the analyst forecasts
10 7
2006
55%
Emerging markets such as China, India, Middle East, Africa etc.
6
10
5
29
22
2005
62% 56%
2. Drivers for accelerated Module Demand are
33
India
62%
40 36
37
China
Module 61% Capacity Utilization
14
(GW) Actual Module Demand 2014
Analyst Expectation
6
7
8
4
5
2008
2009
Source: GreenTechMedia, Oct. ‘10, Navigant Aug ‘10
2010
Module Capacity growth in-line with Module Demand growth and historical utilization rates Page 7 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
* Module Capacity = Production Capacity of Module Suppliers
Module Capacity by Technology Module Capacity by Technology (GW) Low Case Base Case
1.
Module Capacity Growth Potential ~ 6-8 GW/year in the base case and ~ 3-4 GW/year in the low case
2.
c-Si likely to remain the dominant technology with only small drop in market share from 77% in 2010 to 72% in 2013
3.
Thin Film CdTe market share primarily dominated by First Solar with 2.7 GW capacity by 2013
4.
Thin Film CIGS remains a wild-card technology as currently mass production remains an industrial challenge
5.
Thin Film Si market share is expected to remain consistent at 13% with potential upside from OS ThinFab solution
Market Share (Thin Film Si)
c-Si 13%
Thin Film CdTe Thin Film CIGS Thin Film Si
13%
12%
13% 13%
43
37 9%
30 31
22
27 22
14 10 8
17
3 3
10
3
4
5
6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: GreenTechMedia, Oct. ‘10, Navigant Aug ‘10
Module Capacity is expected to grow by 6-8 GW/yr and 13% market share for Thin Film Si Page 8 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Balance of Module Capacity vs Module Demand Module Capacity Regional Share (%) 2010 (22 GW)
12%
2010 (14 GW)
19%
10%
9% 3%
Module Demand Regional Share (%) 9% 3% 1%
3%
5%
Europe 47%
China
81%
India Japan US RoW
2013 (33-43 GW)
18%
12%
2013 (21-26 GW)
9% 19%
11%
9% 2%
48%
7% 2% 10%
53%
Source: GreenTechMedia, Oct. ‘10, Navigant Aug ‘10
Shift of Module Demand from EU to US/Asia while China remains a key manufacturing market Page 9 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Future Module Demand Current Markets (Module Demand)
Future Markets (Module Demand)
Strategic shift of Module Demand from EU to hot regions such as China/India/Japan/US/ME/Africa Page 10 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Thank you for your attention.
Page 11 Company Presentation
Page 1 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Page 2 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Oerlikon is a provider of clean-technology solutions 100 years history of turning innovations into sales Oerlikon Solar
Oerlikon Systems
Leading provider of silicon based thin film solar technology
Advanced nanotechnology for solar cells, thermoelectric generators and batteries
Oerlikon Coating
Oerlikon Fairfield
Leading coatings in the automotive sector: - 10x durability - 4% less energy consumption
Loose gears and gearboxes for wind turbines
Oerlikon Graziano
Oerlikon Vacuum
Vacuum solutions for the solar and wind industry Employees Revenue 2010 Page 3 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Transmissions for hybrid and electrical cars 16,000/at over 150 locations CHF3,6 bn
Solar technologies overview Solar Power
Concentrated Solar Power
Photovoltaic (PV)
… concentrate sunlight to heat source fluid for a conventional power plant. CSP cannot be deployed at small scale and geographic range is limited
… direct conversion of sunlight into electricity through photoelectric effect. PV supports broad functional applications from roof-tops to large farms at competitive energy value Thin Film Technologies
Wafer based c-Si
Market Share
* Includes Ribbon Silicon ~ 2%
Page 4 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
83%*
TF-Si
3%
Oerlikon Solar … a pioneer in Thin Film Silicon technology
CdTe
13%
CIGS
1%
Photovoltaic (PV) technologies attributes Wafer based
Thin Film Technologies
c-Si
Long energy payback Susceptible to poly Si price fluctuations Complicated manufacturing process Higher cost Upside potential not significant for further cost reduction Proven production
TF-Si
Page 5 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Shortest energy payback Abundant raw material Non-toxic/Clean Favorable behavior in high temperature & low light conditions Proven production Upside for technology & cost improvements Simpler manufacturing process Low material requirement Favorable CoO
CdTe
Limited production due to exotic/rare material Use of toxic material Technology not available on open market for new manufacturing Favorable CoO due to GW scale production
CIGS
Use of exotic/rare material Use of toxic material Good lab results but not production proven Complex process To date high investment cost with low results
Drivers for photovoltaic (PV) growth Fundamentals do not change Energy Demand
Conventional Energy Costs
+577% PV Growth (GW)
12.1
CAGR 61%
Fossil Resources
Environmental Regulations
5.8
1.8
2006
National Security
Page 6 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
7.1
2.7
2007
2008
2009
2010
Module Capacity and Module Demand 1. Module Capacity utilization rates have historically been 50-65%
Module Capacity (GW) Module Capacity (Low Case) Module Capacity (Base Case) 50
Series
Module Demand (GW) Series Accelerated Module Demand Scenario 43 Europe
Japan
30
US
26
RoW
14
16 1
14
5 2008
26
2
3
2 2 4
2011
2012
2013
6
2009
2010
2008
2009
2010
11
10
11
2007
52%
Reduction in module prices and PV power costs (€/kWh)
19 2
3. Historically, Module Demand has exceeded the analyst forecasts
10 7
2006
55%
Emerging markets such as China, India, Middle East, Africa etc.
6
10
5
29
22
2005
62% 56%
2. Drivers for accelerated Module Demand are
33
India
62%
40 36
37
China
Module 61% Capacity Utilization
14
(GW) Actual Module Demand 2014
Analyst Expectation
6
7
8
4
5
2008
2009
Source: GreenTechMedia, Oct. ‘10, Navigant Aug ‘10
2010
Module Capacity growth in-line with Module Demand growth and historical utilization rates Page 7 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
* Module Capacity = Production Capacity of Module Suppliers
Module Capacity by Technology Module Capacity by Technology (GW) Low Case Base Case
1.
Module Capacity Growth Potential ~ 6-8 GW/year in the base case and ~ 3-4 GW/year in the low case
2.
c-Si likely to remain the dominant technology with only small drop in market share from 77% in 2010 to 72% in 2013
3.
Thin Film CdTe market share primarily dominated by First Solar with 2.7 GW capacity by 2013
4.
Thin Film CIGS remains a wild-card technology as currently mass production remains an industrial challenge
5.
Thin Film Si market share is expected to remain consistent at 13% with potential upside from OS ThinFab solution
Market Share (Thin Film Si)
c-Si 13%
Thin Film CdTe Thin Film CIGS Thin Film Si
13%
12%
13% 13%
43
37 9%
30 31
22
27 22
14 10 8
17
3 3
10
3
4
5
6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: GreenTechMedia, Oct. ‘10, Navigant Aug ‘10
Module Capacity is expected to grow by 6-8 GW/yr and 13% market share for Thin Film Si Page 8 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Balance of Module Capacity vs Module Demand Module Capacity Regional Share (%) 2010 (22 GW)
12%
2010 (14 GW)
19%
10%
9% 3%
Module Demand Regional Share (%) 9% 3% 1%
3%
5%
Europe 47%
China
81%
India Japan US RoW
2013 (33-43 GW)
18%
12%
2013 (21-26 GW)
9% 19%
11%
9% 2%
48%
7% 2% 10%
53%
Source: GreenTechMedia, Oct. ‘10, Navigant Aug ‘10
Shift of Module Demand from EU to US/Asia while China remains a key manufacturing market Page 9 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Future Module Demand Current Markets (Module Demand)
Future Markets (Module Demand)
Strategic shift of Module Demand from EU to hot regions such as China/India/Japan/US/ME/Africa Page 10 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Thank you for your attention.
Page 11 Company Presentation
