2010 12 Apr.
PORTUGAL RETAIL
Jerónimo Martins
Update Valuation
New Organization to face new challenges
COMPANY UPDATE
Reduce (Medium Risk) Financials Turnover (€ mn) EBITDA (€ mn) Net Income (€ mn) EPS (€) CEPS (€) Ratios Pre-tax RoIC (%) RoE (%) Net Debt/EBITDA (x) Net Debt/Equity (%) Valuation P / E (x) EV / Revenues (%) EV / EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield (%) Source: Millennium investment banking
TargetYE10(€):
7,70
Price (€): Upside: No. Shares (mn): Market Cap (€ mn): Avg Daily Vol 3m (k): Reuters: Bloomberg:
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
6.893,7 473,0 163,2 0,27 0,52
7.317,1 528,0 200,3 0,33 3,01
8.592,9 631,4 260,6 0,41 3,56
9.772,3 725,2 319,5 0,51 4,20
17,4 25,1 1,9 94,2
19,9 25,7 1,4 69,7
24,2 27,5 0,9 45,7
26,8 27,8 0,6 29,3
14,6
20,9
18,7
15,3
139
57,1 8,3 2,8
78,1 10,8 2,0
70,7 9,6 2,4
61,2 8,2 3,6
117
7,745 -1% 629,3 4.873,9 1.232,2 JMT.LS JMT PL
Prices as at 09-April-2010 205
JM 183
PSI20
161
95 Abr-09 Jun-09 Ago-09 Out-09 Dez-09 Fev-10
!
Based on FY09 Earnings together with Annual Report, we decided to fine-tune our JM`s valuation. Our price target YE10 was revised upwards to €7.70 from €7.10 while recommendation kept unchanged: Reduce (Medium Risk). We also updated Euro/Zloty exchange rate we are using in JM`s valuation. Recall we are using Euro/Zloty Fwd exchange rate YE10 3.95 (vs 4.19 previously) to calculate Biedronka valuation in SoTP while we are using Euro/Zloty avg annual rate 4.03 (vs 4.15 previously) to estimate Biedronka`s sales in Euros
!
Fine-tune (€0.25 effect) in estimates (upwards revision in polish Biedronka`s margins while slightly downwards margins in Portuguese retail) and sales numbers (upwards revised both in Portugal and Poland), together with Euro/Zloty exchange rate update (€0.35 effect) lead to a €0.60 positive effect on JM`s price target.
!
We believe that JM`s increasing internationalization together with natural succession of the Chairman would put limitations to the current centralized management model, thus it was necessary to decentralize.
!
Jerónimo Martins approved at Annual General Meeting (April 09th) the new corporate bodies for the three-year period of 2010-2012 (proposal from Soares dos Santos family holding). Following election of Board Members, the Board disclosed a new organizational Model: Mr. Pedro Soares dos Santos will be the new CEO and Mr Palha da Silva will head the new “Financial Matters Committee”.
!
Despite having seen its influence reduced, we consider important that both Mr Alexandre Soares dos Santos and Mr Luis Palha kept in the Organizational Structure, which will help to maintain confidence in JM`s while company adapts to the new structure
!
All in all, we have a new YE10 price target of €7.70. Given the 1% downside on the stock we rate it as Reduce (Medium Risk).
João Flores, Equity Analyst +351 21 003 7830
[email protected] All prices are those of the end of the trading session unless otherwise indicated. For important Disclosure and Disclaimer go to the last page.
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
Index Investment Case
3
Breakdown of changes in price target Valuation and Estimates
12
Sum of the Parts DCF Assumptions DCF – Business areas
14
JMR Wholesale Madeira Biedronka Manufacturing Divisional Estimates
18
Expansion Plans Biedronka Margins Revenues
20
Sales Growth Rate Average Biedronka Quarterly Preview
22
P&L Sales Seasonality Consolidated Estimates
24
Income Statements Financial Balance Sheets Cash Flow Statements
Disclosures and Disclaimer
25
Page 2 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
Investment case Based on FY09 Earnings together with Annual Report, we decided to fine-tune our JM`s valuation. Our price target YE10 was revised upwards to €7.70 from €7.10 while recommendation kept unchanged: Reduce (Medium Risk). We also updated Euro/Zloty exchange rate we are using in JM`s valuation. Recall we are using Euro/Zloty Fwd exchange rate YE10 3.95 (vs 4.19 previously) to calculate Biedronka valuation in SoTP while we are using Euro/Zloty avg annual rate 4.03 (vs 4.15 previously) to estimate Biedronka`s sales in Euros. Polish unit Biedronka estimated sales (in 2010) were revised upwards (to €4.764mn from €4,563mn), reflecting favorable Euro/Zloty exchange rate (avg annual rate). Using constant exchange rate Euro/Zloty scenario at 4.31 (the same avg annual rate in 2009) and not 4.03 (which we estimate as avg annual rate this year) sales numbers would increase to €4,452mn. Fine-tune in margins (upwards revision in polish Biedronka`s margins while slightly downwards margins in Portuguese retail) and sales numbers (upwards revised both in Portugal and Poland), together with Euro/Zloty exchange rate update lead to a €0.60 positive effect on JM`s price target. According to the polish press, Poland’s central bank is prepared to act on the foreign exchange market to weaken the Zloty, fearing its rise may slow economy’s expansion. There’s a positive climate for intervention since polish authorities are dealing with a strong appreciation of the Zloty (biggest quarterly gain in six years in 1Q10). We are using Euro/Zloty Fwd exchange rate YE10 3.95, thus if we consider 4.00 as a equilibrium level, fx risk to JM`s valuation is negligible. JM will release 1Q10 Earnings on April 28 before market opening.
Changes in price target
Breakdown of change in price target
8.00
7.70
7.50 0.35 7.10 0.25
7.00 Previous target (YE10)
Changes in estimates
Changes in Euro/Zloty
YE10 price target
Sales: Sales numbers in 2009 were slightly lower than our estimates, penalized by lower than estimated sales area while benefiting from positive sales growth numbers. Domestic retail ex-Madeira benefited from positive numbers in Supermarkets “Pingo Doce” (reflecting stores remodelling efforts, good performance during Christmas period and increasing LfL sales numbers) while Hypermarkets ”Feira Nova” kept negative trend (penalized by repositioning that is taking place and reduction in assortment). We slightly increased expected sales growth rate for 2010 in Portugal (to 6.4% from 5.5%), reflecting fine-tune in sales / Avg M2 growth while kept unchanged sale area and store openings. Page 3 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
In current difficult environment, we expect JM`s supermarkets “Pingo Doce” (together with Sonae`s “Modelo” main competitor) will keep increasing market share while small players and discount stores are expected to be the most penalized. Supermarkets and hypermarkets are the most resilient segments, which could explain the possible exit of “Minipreço” from Portuguese market (according to the French press) since “Minipreço” its Carrefour discount brand. Higher volumes are not compensating significant reduction of consumer’s average ticket in Food based retail, thus it’s important to keep increasing market share to retain growth. Declining purchase power together with increasing unemployment rate in Portugal are a major threat to the economy, weakening economic recovery (unemployment makes consumer’s more reluctant to spend, since almost everyone has someone in the family at risk of loosing job). Furthermore, despite available income has increased to employees (benefiting from lower interest rates, growth in real wages,…) people are saving much more and spending less. Polish unit Biedronka estimated sales (in 2010) were revised upwards (to €4.764mn from €4,563mn), reflecting favorable Euro/Zloty exchange rate (avg annual rate). Using constant exchange rate Euro/Zloty scenario at 4.31 (the same avg annual rate in 2009) and not 4.03 (which we estimate as avg annual rate this year) sales numbers would increase to €4,452mn.
Sales
Sales €mn Consolidated sales Portugal Domestic Retail ex-Madeira Poland Biedronka € Biedronka Zlt Sales Growth % Consolidated sales Portugal Domestic Retail ex-Madeira Poland Biedronka € Biedronka Zlt
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
6893.7 3621.9 2503.4
7317.1 3853.3 2708.3
8592.9 4099.1 2925.0
9772.3 4246.5 3042.9
10887.5 4401.2 3168.7
11856.1 4535.2 3272.9
12374.2 4637.0 3351.9
12861.0 4728.5 3419.0
13270.1 4823.0 3487.3
13543.4 4919.5 3557.1
13822.2 5017.9 3628.2
3520.9 12380.0
3724.7 16066.8
4764.1 19189.9
5804.6 23108.8
6773.6 27371.2
7616.6 31239.1
8039.0 33466.4
8440.3 35664.0
8761.0 37574.4
8944.1 38935.1
9130.9 40344.6
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
28.9% 13.8% 18.6%
6.1% 6.4% 8.2%
17.4% 6.4% 8.0%
13.7% 3.6% 4.0%
11.4% 3.6% 4.1%
8.9% 3.0% 3.3%
4.4% 2.2% 2.4%
3.9% 2.0% 2.0%
3.2% 2.0% 2.0%
2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
47.2% 37.3%
5.8% 29.8%
27.9% 19.4%
21.8% 20.4%
16.7% 18.4%
12.4% 14.1%
5.5% 7.1%
5.0% 6.6%
3.8% 5.4%
2.1% 3.6%
2.1% 3.6%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Sales - Before
Sales €mn Consolidated sales Portugal Domestic Retail ex-Madeira Poland Biedronka € Biedronka Zlt Sales Growth % Consolidated sales Portugal Domestic Retail ex-Madeira Poland Biedronka € Biedronka Zlt
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
6893.7 3621.9 2503.4
7317.1 3853.4 2708.3
8352.7 4063.7 2875.3
9310.9 4227.4 2994.6
10282.8 4399.7 3121.9
11082.0 4533.3 3224.4
11541.4 4634.8 3302.2
11970.5 4726.2 3368.3
12329.6 4820.8 3435.6
12567.5 4917.2 3504.3
12809.9 5015.5 3574.4
3520.9 12380.0
3724.7 16066.8
4562.6 18929.0
5369.5 22705.3
6181.9 26585.0
6856.3 29986.4
7220.5 32116.4
7564.4 34218.1
7835.4 36046.5
7983.4 37351.8
8134.1 38703.8
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
28.9% 13.8% 18.6%
6.1% 6.4% 8.2%
14.2% 5.5% 6.2%
11.5% 4.0% 4.1%
10.4% 4.1% 4.3%
7.8% 3.0% 3.3%
4.1% 2.2% 2.4%
3.7% 2.0% 2.0%
3.0% 2.0% 2.0%
1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
47.2% 37.3%
5.8% 29.8%
22.5% 17.8%
17.7% 19.9%
15.1% 17.1%
10.9% 12.8%
5.3% 7.1%
4.8% 6.5%
3.6% 5.3%
1.9% 3.6%
1.9% 3.6%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Store openings: We kept unchanged Pingo Doce estimated store openings. We expect JM will open 6 stores in the current year, thus our estimates are in line with JM target (c.20 stores to be opened over the 3Y period 2010/12). Pingo Doce targets gaining market share in the LfL and expand only to key locations. JM favours locations next to existing stores, than having a national coverage. In Poland, we slightly revised downwards store openings. JM expects to have 2000 stores by 2012 (+550 stores in the period 2010/12) thus we slightly adjusted our numbers in order to reach 2.006 Biedronka`s stores in 2012 (vs 2.016 stores previously). JM discipline in defining stores size is very strict and will not consider different approaches, different formats in the market, thus we believe expanding to a different business model from Biedronka is not on the agenda.
Page 4 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
Revamping Feira Nova stores Starting with “Feira Nova” store in Braga (Portuguese city close to Oporto), JM will revamp its 9 hypermarkets / “Feira Nova” into smaller stores (from 9.100smq to 6.000sqm average sales area per store) trying to recover from current negative LfL sale growth in Hypers / Feira Nova (-10.7% 09FY). Remodelled stores will adopt “Pingo Doce” layout and formats, while more focused on perishables and take-away (benefiting from higher area compared to current Pingo Doce stores with 1.050sqm sales area). Scheduled plan: March 2010: “Feira Nova” in Braga (close to Oporto) December 2010: “Feira Nova” in Mem Martins (close to Lisbon) 2011: remaining 7 stores
Store Openings -09 -12
Store Openings -Before
MIB Store Openings 2009 2010E Pingo Doce 0 6 Biedronka 107 170 Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
2011E 7 185
2012E 7 185
JM Inv. Day 2010/12 2010 2011 2012 20 over the 3Y period 550 over the 3Y period
MIB Store Openings 2009 2010E Pingo Doce 0 6 Biedronka 107 185 Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
2011E 7 185
2012E 7 180
JM Inv. Day 2010/12 2010 2011 2012 20 over the 3Y period 550 over the 3Y period
Store openings on Sundays and Holidays after lunch According to the Portuguese General Attorney, housing component is excluded from supermarket/hypermarket definition. According to the law, supermarkets/hypermarkets having sales area exceeding 2.000 sqm or integrate in the same space a sales area exceeding 3.000 sqm may not be open on Sundays and holidays after lunch. The withdrawal of the housing restriction is in line with ASAE (Portuguese Food Safety Authority) the body which asked clarification of the law (in counties under 30,000 inhabitants, the limits would change respectively to 1.000sqm and 2.000 sqm).We believe both Sonae and Jeronimo Martins stores under 2,000 sqm already opened on Sundays (regardless local population density and in line with local authorities understanding), thus we consider neutral news (or slightly positive). According to APED (Portuguese retailer’s association) local authorities understanding already excluded housing component, thus a large share of supermarkets/hypermarket under 2.000 sqm (or 3.000 sqm if integrate in the same space a sales area under 3000 sqm) already opened on Sundays and holidays after lunch. New understating covers 63 stores (more than 1.000 and under 2.000 sqm located in council under 30.000 inhabitants): 12 Lidl stores, 21 Pingo Doce (JM) stores, 20 Modelo (Sonae) stores, 4 Mini-Preços, 4 Max-mat (Sonae), 2 Worten (Sonae) and 1 Pão de Açucar.
Page 5 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
Margins: We also made some fine-tune in EBITDA margins: upwards revision in polish Biedronka`s margins while slightly downwards margins in Portuguese retail reflecting 2009 numbers. Expected increasing margins in all business areas are reflecting larger scale operations both in Portugal and Poland, increased maturity in stores open recently and expected benefits from formers Plus stores integration. Furthermore, not expected aggressive prices wars scenario in both countries are also contributing positively to margins. We reinforce our confidence in Jerónimo Martins, benefiting from a solid strategy (consistent business plan) while keeping costs control and strong debt management, thus we believe it will be possible to increase margins both in Portugal and Poland. Recall estimated EBITDA margins in Portugal are lower than they were observed prior to retail consolidation (Sonae acquired Carrefour hypermarkets in July 2007 and JM bought Plus stores in December 2007) which gave us more confidence it will be possible to reach estimated numbers. Increasing scale in Polish operations together with expected aggressive stores openings policy, led us to believe it will be possible to increase margins in Poland too. Recall JM expects (I. Day Nov 2009) EBITDA margin with a stable to positive progression over the period 2010/12.
EBITDA margin evolution (historical and estimated)
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira
2008
2009 2010E 2012E 2015E 2018E
Polish Retail (Biedronka)
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking IAS Figures from 2004 onwards High Ebitda margins in Portugal at the beginning of the decade were explained by the premium positioning of JM`s supermarkets "Pingo Doce". However, increased competition (particularly from discount stores, more focused on low prices) led to a repositioning of JM`s brand, which showed signs of weakness (falling LFL sales was a clear sign to change business model). Pingo Doce repositioning along with “Plus” stores integration costs resulted in lower margins, which we expect will partially recover. Despite retail sector consolidation in Portugal (lead by major operators), margins are not expected to recover to previous levels since “Pingo Doce” repositioning to a different business model means lower margins (lower prices, store bands increased market share). Small supermarkets and traditional retail are the most penalized by current difficult environment in Portugal (Source: Nielsen), thus largest Portuguese retailers (Sonae/ "Modelo" supermarkets and JM / "Pingo Doce" supermarkets) are expected to increase market share, which should reflect in higher margins (scale benefits, pricing power). In addition, "Plus" integration costs are being diluted and private brand scale benefits are still to come, which should have positive effect on margins.
Page 6 of 26
Jerónimo Martins
Millennium investment banking
12 April 2010
Food Retail market share 2007 / 2008 2007 30.0% 22.0% 14.0% 11.0% 11.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0%
Market share evolution in Portugal (%) Sonae Distribuição Jerónimo Martins Intermarché Auchan Lidl Minipreço Lecrerc Others
2008 30.0% 23.0% 13.0% 10.0% 12.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0%
Chg YoY 0.0pp 1.0pp -1.0pp -1.0pp 1.0pp 0.0pp 0.0pp 0.0pp
Source: APED, Company data and Millennium investment banking Polish Biedronka high market share in discount retail (over 70%) together with sustained scale growth (led store openings in Polish discount retail last year) lead us to believe that will have positive effect on margins. We decided to limit margins in Poland to 7.5%, since higher margins could attract news players, thus lowering margins to a new equilibrium level.
Discount Stores network in Poland
Discount Stores network
2009
Net Openings
Mrkt Share
Biedronka Lidl Netto Aldi Total
1466 335 184 40 2025
107 27 27 28 189
72.4% 16.5% 9.1% 2.0% 100.0%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
EBITDA Margins EBITDA margin Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
6.8% 11.0% 6.5% 9.7% 3.6% 14.8% 2.4%
8.5% 10.1% 7.5% 7.8% 4.2% 15.7% 5.2%
8.7% 10.4% 7.5% 8.5% 4.9% 17.4% 4.9%
8.1% 9.7% 6.7% 8.0% 5.1% 17.7% 2.3%
7.2% 8.2% 6.0% 5.5% 5.3% 17.7% 2.3%
6.6% 7.0% 6.0% 4.6% 5.9% 14.1% 2.4%
6.9% 6.7% 6.1% 3.6% 6.9% 14.3% 1.3%
7.2% 7.0% 6.0% 4.8% 7.3% 15.3% 1.6%
7.3% 7.2% 6.1% 4.6% 7.4% 15.9% 2.2%
7.5% 7.4% 6.3% 4.8% 7.5% 16.6% 2.3%
7.5% 7.4% 6.5% 4.8% 7.5% 16.4% 2.3%
7.5% 7.4% 6.5% 4.8% 7.5% 16.4% 2.3%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
EBITDA Margins - Before
EBITDA margin Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
6.8% 11.0% 6.5% 9.7% 3.6% 14.8% 2.4%
8.5% 10.1% 7.5% 7.8% 4.2% 15.7% 5.2%
8.7% 10.4% 7.5% 8.5% 4.9% 17.4% 4.9%
8.1% 9.7% 6.7% 8.0% 5.1% 17.7% 2.3%
7.2% 8.2% 6.0% 5.5% 5.3% 17.7% 2.3%
6.6% 7.0% 6.0% 4.6% 5.9% 14.1% 2.4%
6.9% 6.7% 6.1% 3.6% 6.9% 14.3% 1.3%
7.2% 7.2% 6.2% 4.3% 7.1% 15.9% 2.5%
7.3% 7.3% 6.3% 4.3% 7.2% 15.9% 2.5%
7.5% 7.5% 6.5% 4.5% 7.4% 16.6% 2.6%
7.5% 7.5% 6.5% 4.5% 7.4% 16.4% 2.6%
7.5% 7.5% 6.5% 4.5% 7.4% 16.4% 2.6%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 7 of 26
Millennium investment banking EBITDA Margins - Retail peers
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
EBITDA Margins Company Carrefour Metro Ahold Casino Delhaize Super de Boer Tesco Sainsbury Jerónimo Martins Jerónimo Martins* Alma Market Bomi Eurocash Emperia Holding X5 Retail Group BIM Birlesik Seventh Continent Dixy Group
Country France Germany Netherlands France Belgium Netherlands Great-Britain Great-Britain Portugal Portugal Poland Poland Poland Poland Russia Turkey Russia Russia
Sector Food Retail Department Stores Food Retail Food Retail Food Retail Food Retail Food Retail Food Retail Food Retail Food Retail Food Retail Food Retail Discount Stores Food Retail Food Retail Discount Stores Food Retail Food Retail
2007 6,1% 5,3% 6,8% 7,3% 7,5% 2,5% 7,9% 5,7% 6,6% 6,6% 4,7% 5,0% 2,6% 3,9% 9,0% 5,4% 11,4% 5,1%
2008 5,9% 5,2% 7,3% 6,8% 7,3% 3,1% 7,9% 5,7% 6,9% 6,9% 2,8% 4,7% 2,6% 2,9% 9,6% 4,5% 9,6% 5,6%
2009E 5,3% 5,0% 7,4% 6,9% 7,3% 2,7% 8,2% 5,7% 7,2% 7,2% 2,0% 5,5% 2,9% 3,1% 8,5% 5,9% 8,8% 5,5%
2010E 5,6% 5,2% 7,5% 6,8% 7,6% 2,5% 8,3% 5,8% 7,1% 7,3% 3,0% 5,7% 3,1% 3,1% 8,4% 5,3% 8,2% 6,2%
2011E 5,9% 5,5% 7,7% 7,0% 7,6% 2,7% 8,5% 5,8% 7,2% 7,4% 2,7% 5,8% 3,2% 3,4% 8,5% 5,1% 8,2% 6,5%
2012E 6,1% 5,7% 7,9% 7,1% 7,6% na 8,6% 5,9% 7,4% 7,5% na na na na 8,9% 5,0% 8,1% 6,2%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Capex: JM`s plans to invest circa €1.3bn in 3 years through 2012 and Poland will represent 70% (roughly €910mn), reflecting strong Polish expansion plan. Recall Capex reached €312mn last year, reflecting strong discipline in capital management. Capex slowdown reflects strong discipline and postponing of some projects (expansion plans to Eastern Europe are halted. Recall Ukraine, Romania and Russia are potential targets to JM`s expansion plans). Given current challenging scenario, we believe acquisitions will not necessarily come this year. We have fine-tuned our Capex estimates, reflecting changes in revenues numbers. Capex in 2010 will be roughly €426mn (middle of JM`s expected range from €400mn to €450mn).
Capex Highlights - 09-12
Capex - Before
MIB Capex 2009 2010 Portugal 125 131 Poland 182 291 Industry 5 5 Total 312 426 Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
2011 139 310 5 454
2012 144 330 5 479
MIB Capex 2009 2010 Portugal 149 137 Poland 201 272 Industry 5 5 Total 355 414 Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
2011 142 285 5 432
2012 141 297 5 444
JM Inv. Day 2010/12 2010 2011 2012 -
-
-
€910Mn over the 3Y period -
-
-
€1.3Bn over the 3Y period
JM Inv. Day 2010/12 2010 2011 2012 -
-
-
€910Mn over the 3Y period -
-
-
€1.3Bn over the 3Y period
Exchange rate: We updated Euro/Zloty exchange rate both Forward and Avg annual rate. Recall we are using Euro/Zloty Fwd exchange rate YE10 3.95 (vs 4.19 previously) to calculate Biedronka valuation in SoTP while we are using Euro/Zloty avg annual rate 4.03 (vs 4.15 previously) to estimate Biedronka`s sales in Euros. Polish unit Biedronka estimated sales (in 2010) were revised upwards (to €4.764mn from €4,563mn), reflecting favorable Euro/Zloty exchange rate (avg annual rate). Using constant exchange rate Euro/Zloty scenario at 4.31 (the same avg annual rate in 2009) and not 4.03 (which we estimate as avg annual rate this year) sales numbers would increase to €4,452mn. Page 8 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
Risk-free: we kept unchanged risk-free rate at 4.25%. Recall our debt spread is over Portuguese government bonds, this way we take into consideration the trend of the Portuguese spread over the German bonds (As we want to avoid repeatedly changing Portuguese 10-years Government yields, we only change it by 25 bp when there is a gap of more than 50 bp).
Ahold no longer plans to sell stake in JMR Ahold CEO does not plan to sell JMR stake anymore. Ahold decided to keep its stake in JMR after falling to get a “sensible” price for 3 to 4 years. On November 6, 2006, Ahold announced its intention to divest its stake in JMR. Since then, the Company has actively marketed its stake in JMR at a price it considers reflects a reasonable value for it. Recall Ahold has a 49% stake in JM`s joint-venture JMR (holds retail market in mainland Portugal: Pingo Doce / Feira Nova retail chains and Madeira, not including Recheio wholesale and Polish Biedronka) and was negotiating to divest its stake in JMR, since it’s refocusing its portfolio in order to operate as market leaders in local food retail markets in the United States and Europe. According to Jerónimo Martins, there are no new negotiations and no recent development regarding Ahold stake in JMR. Based on JM and Ahold statements, we believe it will be a non-issue to the next years.
Annual General Meeting Jerónimo Martins approved at Annual General Meeting (April 09th) the new corporate bodies for the three-year period of 2010-2012 (proposal from Soares dos Santos family holding). Following election of Board Members, the Board disclosed a new organizational Model: Mr. Pedro Soares dos Santos will be the new CEO and Mr Palha da Silva will head the new “Financial Matters Committee”.
The question is why changing something that has worked quite well? We believe that JM`s increasing internationalization together with natural succession of the Chairman would put limitations to the current centralized management model, thus it was necessary to decentralize. To ease new organizational structure and give confidence to the markets, JM decided to keep Mr Alexandre Soares dos Santos as Chairman (even breaking JM`s rule not to accumulate Chairman and CEO in Soares dos Santos family) and keep Mr Luis Palha in the company. We believe market could negatively react case Mr Palha returned to cement company Cimpor (CGD shareholder invited Mr Palha to head Cimpor as Chairman or CEO) given excellent track record of current JM`s management.
Page 9 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
New organizational chart
Source: Company data
New organizational structure
Source: Company data
Page 10 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
Highlights: Decentralizing decision-making -
Organization structure closer to the U.S. model, with the aim of speeding up decisions regarding expected JM`s increased internationalization and competitiveness in Retail sector. Holding reduced management responsibility while keeping strategy responsibility and increasing accountability of non-executive directors (the 3rd market where to expand will be decided during 2010/12 strategic plan).
-
Executive Committee has disappeared in the new organization (recall Mr. Luis Palha was President of Executive Committee while Mr Pedro Soares dos Santos together with Mr José Soares dos Santos were Executives Directors) replaced by Responsibility Committees.
-
CEO will report to the Committees and no to the Board, since JM`s Chairman wants to become nonexecutive.
-
Mr. Alexandre Soares dos Santos kept as JM`s Chairman while becoming a non-executive (will head “Evaluation and Nomination Committee”).
-
Mr Pedro Soares dos Santos (Chairman`s son) was named CEO (replacing Mr. Luis Palha), backed by a “Management Committee”. JM`s policy not to hold both governing bodies (Chairman and CEO) in Santos`s family at the same time was broken.
-
Mr Luis Palha da Silva will head the new “Financial Matters Committee” together with “Corporate Responsibility Committee”.
-
Despite having seen its influence reduced, we consider important that both Mr Alexandre Soares dos Santos and Mr Luis Palha kept in the Organizational Structure, which will help to maintain confidence in JM`s while company adapts to the new structure
Recall Board of Directors (elected on March 2007 to the period 2007/09) has been comprised of nine members, three of whom formed the Executive Committee. Board of Directors (2007/09): -
Chairman: Mr Alexandre Soares dos Santos
-
President of Executive Comittee, Group CEO, CFO: Mr. Luis Palha da Sillva
-
Executive Director: Mr Pedro Soares dos Santos (Chairman`s son)
-
Executive Director: Mr José Soares dos Santos (Chairman`s son)
All in all, we have a new YE10 price target of €7.70. Given the 1% downside on the stock we rate it as Reduce (Medium Risk). Overall, fine-tune in EBITDA margins together with Euro/Zloty exchange rate update impacted positively in JM`s valuation. We reinforce our confidence in Jerónimo Martins, benefiting from a solid strategy (consistent business plan) while keeping costs control and strong debt management.
JM kept trading at premium compared to retail sector multiples, but we believe it’s justifiable given Biedronka`s growth potential and a solid strategy (consistent business plan). Our price target YE10 was revised upwards to €7.70 from €7.10 and recommendation kept unchanged Reduce (Medium Risk).
Page 11 of 26
Jerónimo Martins
Millennium investment banking
12 April 2010
Valuation and Estimates
Sum of the Parts
€ million Portuguese Retail Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail Biedronka Portuguese Manufacturing JVs Financial Investments & Other BCP Shares (09th April) Excess Real Estate Assets Other Financial Investments Enterprise Value Net Debt YE09 Consolidated Net Debt Unfunded Pension Liabilities Dividends to be paid out in 2010 Minority Interests 49% of JMR Minority Interests JMR Equity Value Shares (mn) Fair Value per Share (€) Price Target (€)
Enterp. Value
Stake
1,536.5 380.7 38.3
100% 100% 100%
3,937.0 575.7
100% 45%
Attrib. JM % Equity 1,955.5 1,536.5 380.7 38.3 3,937.0 3,937.0 259.0 29.3 1.6 25.3 2.4 6,180.9 852.9 742.9 20.1 89.9 487.5 477.2 10.3 4,840.5 629.3 7.69 7.70
40% 32% 8% 1% 81% 81% 5% 1% 0% 1% 0% 128% 18%
% EV 32% 25% 6% 1% 64% 64% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 14%
Implied Multiples 7.9x EV/EBITDA 10 8.8x EV/EBITDA 10 6.2x EV/EBITDA 10
14x EV/EBIT 10 11x EV/EBIT 10 16.5x EV/EBIT 10
10.7x EV/EBITDA 10 6.8x EV/EBITDA 10
14x EV/EBIT 10 7.7x EV/EBIT 10
14% 0.91cnts%
100%
Market value of €1.6 per share 0.4x YE09 Book value of €63.3mn 0.4x YE09 Book value of €5.9mn 9.7x EV/EBITDA 10 13.8x EV/EBIT 10
0.73x YE05 Book value of €27.7mn 45.3% Payout ratio 26.1x PER 09 YE08E Book Value 18.6x PER 10
78%
Previous Revision Value for JM 2,056.9 -5% 1,583.4 -3% 432.3 -12% 41.3 -7% 3,469.3 13% 3,469.3 13% 269.1 -4% 29.5 -1% 1.4 18% 25.8 -2% 2.4 0% 5,824.8 6% 853.3 0% 751.4 -1% 20.4 -2% 81.5 10% 500.6 -3% 492.3 -3% 8.2 26% 4,471.0 8% 629.3 0% 7.10 8% 7.10 8%
Source: Millennium investment banking
Minority interests – 49% of JMR
€ million Portuguese Retail Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Other Excess Real Estate Assets Other Financial Investments Tax Credits Carried Forward Enterprise Value Net Debt YE09 Net Debt Unfunded Pension Liabilities Minority Interests Equity Value 49% of Equity Value
Enterp. Value
Stake
1,536.5 38.3
100% 50%
Attrib. JM % Equity 1,555.7 1,536.5 19.1 18.3 15.8 2.6 0.0 1,574.0 589.8 588.8 1.0 10.3 973.9 477.2
% EV
160% 158% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 162% 61%
99% 25% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 100% 37%
1% 100%
1% 62%
Implied Multiples 7.9x EV/EBITDA 10 8.8x EV/EBITDA 09
14x EV/EBIT 10 11x EV/EBIT 09
0.5x YE06 Book value of €31.5mn 0.5x YE06 Book value of €5.2mn 0x YE06 Book value of €6.4mn 9.9x EV/EBITDA 07 16.6x EV/EBIT 09
0.73x YE06 Book value of €1.4mn YE08E Book Value 26.1x PER 09
Previous Revision Value for JMR 1,604.0 -3% 1,583.4 -3% 20.6 -7% 18.3 0% 15.8 0% 2.6 0% 0.0 na 1,622.4 -3% 609.4 -3% 608.4 -3% 1.0 0% 8.2 26% 1,004.8 -3% 492.3 -3%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
DCF assumptions Cost of Equity Risk-Free Rate Market Premium Unlevered Beta Levered Beta After-tax Cost of Debt Cost of Debt Spread Corporate Tax Rate WACC Leverage Terminal Growth Rate Real Growth Rate LT Inflation WACC - TGR FX Rate (Fwd YE10)
Domestic Retail ExMadeira 9.85% 4.25% 5.00% 0.90 1.12 4.78% 6.50% 2.25% 26.50% 8.58% 25.00% 2.51% 0.50% 2.00% 6.07% -
Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira 10.16% 4.25% 5.00% 0.95 1.18 4.78% 6.50% 2.25% 26.50% 8.82% 25.00% 2.51% 0.50% 2.00% 6.31% -
Retail and Wholesale in Madeira 9.88% 4.25% 5.00% 0.90 1.13 4.88% 6.50% 2.25% 25.00% 8.63% 25.00% 2.51% 0.50% 2.00% 6.12% -
Polish Retail (Biedronka) 12.48% 5.81% 5.00% 1.05 1.33 6.94% 8.56% 2.75% 19.00% 11.10% 25.00% 4.05% 0.50% 3.53% 7.05% 3.95
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Page 12 of 26
Millennium investment banking
DCF assumptions – Before
Cost of Equity Risk-Free Rate Market Premium Unlevered Beta Levered Beta After-tax Cost of Debt Cost of Debt Spread Corporate Tax Rate WACC Leverage Terminal Growth Rate Real Growth Rate LT Inflation WACC - TGR FX Rate (Fwd YE10)
Jerónimo Martins
Domestic Retail ExMadeira 9.54% 4.25% 5.00% 0.85 1.06 4.78% 6.50% 2.25% 26.50% 8.35% 25.00% 2.51% 0.50% 2.00% 5.84% -
Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira 9.85% 4.25% 5.00% 0.90 1.12 4.78% 6.50% 2.25% 26.50% 8.58% 25.00% 2.51% 0.50% 2.00% 6.07% -
12 April 2010
Retail and Wholesale in Madeira 9.56% 4.25% 5.00% 0.85 1.06 4.88% 6.50% 2.25% 25.00% 8.39% 25.00% 2.51% 0.50% 2.00% 5.88% -
Polish Retail (Biedronka) 12.69% 6.02% 5.00% 1.05 1.33 7.11% 8.77% 2.75% 19.00% 11.29% 25.00% 4.25% 0.50% 3.73% 7.04% 4.19
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 13 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
DCF – Business areas JMR
€ million EBIT Depreciation & Amortisation Cash Flow from Op. Act Income Taxes Capital Expenditure Working Capital Changes Free Cash Flow WACC Discount Factor Discounted Cash Flow PV of Cash Flows Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value Enterprise Value
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
74.0 61.6 135.6 -19.6 -239.4 1.1 -122.3 8.58%
81.8 73.0 154.8 -21.7 -327.0 39.1 -154.8 8.58%
92.6 82.5 175.1 -24.5 -112.8 20.0 57.7 8.58%
109.5 85.8 195.2 -29.0 -105.1 22.1 83.2 8.58% 1.00 83.2
123.2 94.5 217.8 -32.7 -120.8 12.2 76.6 8.58% 0.85 64.9
125.7 109.4 235.1 -33.3 -108.0 3.1 96.9 8.58% 0.66 64.2
122.8 126.7 249.5 -32.5 -116.0 6.6 107.6 8.58% 0.52 55.7
CAGR CAGR 08-12 08-18 10.8% 4.1% 6.7% 5.7% 8.9% 4.9% 10.8% 4.1% -22.0% -9.8% -25.2% -16.3% nm nm
596.9 2.51% 939.6 1,536.5
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
JMR – Before
€ million EBIT Depreciation & Amortisation Cash Flow from Op. Act Income Taxes Capital Expenditure Working Capital Changes Free Cash Flow WACC Discount Factor Discounted Cash Flow PV of Cash Flows Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value Enterprise Value
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
74.0 61.6 135.6 -19.6 -239.4 1.1 -122.3 8.35%
82.9 71.9 154.8 -22.0 -327.0 39.1 -155.1 8.35%
99.5 80.5 180.0 -26.4 -135.7 19.9 37.9 8.35%
110.3 83.7 194.0 -29.2 -110.2 16.5 71.1 8.35% 1.00 71.1
124.0 92.3 216.3 -32.9 -117.6 12.0 77.9 8.35% 0.85 66.3
126.7 106.9 233.5 -33.6 -105.9 3.1 97.2 8.35% 0.67 65.1
124.1 123.7 247.8 -32.9 -113.7 6.5 107.7 8.35% 0.53 56.7
CAGR CAGR 08-12 08-18 10.6% 4.1% 6.5% 5.6% 8.7% 4.8% 10.6% 4.1% -22.6% -10.0% -25.6% -16.4% nm nm
587.8 2.51% 995.6 1,583.4
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Wholesale
€ million EBIT Depreciation Cash Flow from Op. Act Income Taxes Capital Expenditure Working Capital Changes Free Cash Flow WACC Discount Factor Discounted Cash Flow PV of Cash Flows Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value Enterprise Value
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
30.1 7.4 37.6 -8.0 -12.6 4.8 21.7 8.82%
31.4 8.5 39.9 -8.3 -25.4 5.7 11.9 8.82%
32.7 8.6 41.3 -8.7 -11.2 3.4 24.9 8.82%
34.5 8.8 43.3 -9.1 -23.5 0.5 11.1 8.82% 1.00 11.13
38.3 9.1 47.4 -10.1 -19.7 0.3 17.8 8.82% 0.84 15.05
42.7 9.7 52.4 -11.3 -16.1 2.7 27.7 8.82% 0.66 18.12
45.3 10.3 55.6 -12.0 -17.1 2.9 29.3 8.82% 0.51 14.93
CAGR CAGR 08-12 08-18 5.0% 3.7% 1.9% 2.0% 4.4% 3.4% 5.0% 3.7% -6.1% -3.9% nm -6.7% 10.6% 9.4%
138.1 2.51% 242.60 380.7
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 14 of 26
Millennium investment banking Wholesale – Before
€ million EBIT Depreciation Cash Flow from Op. Act Income Taxes Capital Expenditure Working Capital Changes Free Cash Flow WACC Discount Factor Discounted Cash Flow PV of Cash Flows Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value Enterprise Value
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
30.1 7.4 37.6 -8.0 -12.6 4.8 21.7 8.58%
31.2 8.7 39.9 -8.3 -25.4 5.7 12.0 8.58%
33.1 9.6 42.7 -8.8 -10.3 3.4 26.9 8.58%
35.8 9.8 45.5 -9.5 -23.9 3.1 15.3 8.58% 1.00 15.28
41.6 10.2 51.8 -11.0 -20.6 3.0 23.2 8.58% 0.85 19.66
44.7 10.8 55.5 -11.9 -17.1 2.8 29.4 8.58% 0.66 19.50
47.5 11.5 58.9 -12.6 -18.1 3.0 31.2 8.58% 0.52 16.16
CAGR CAGR 08-12 08-18 7.5% 4.3% 3.9% 2.8% 6.7% 4.0% 7.5% 4.3% -5.0% -3.3% nm -6.1% 17.9% 10.0%
159.5 2.51% 272.77 432.3
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Madeira
€ million EBIT Depreciation Cash Flow from Op. Act Income Taxes Capital Expenditure Working Capital Changes Free Cash Flow WACC Discount Factor Discounted Cash Flow PV of Cash Flows Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value Enterprise Value
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
2.0 3.6 5.7 -0.5 -8.9 0.4 -3.3 8.63%
1.2 3.4 4.6 -0.3 -4.4 0.7 0.6 8.63%
2.5 3.8 6.3 -0.6 -1.0 0.2 4.9 8.63%
2.3 3.9 6.2 -0.6 -2.0 0.2 3.8 8.63% 1.00 3.8
2.7 4.0 6.7 -0.7 -3.5 0.2 2.7 8.63% 0.85 2.3
2.9 4.3 7.2 -0.7 -4.2 0.2 2.5 8.63% 0.66 1.6
3.1 4.5 7.6 -0.8 -4.9 0.4 2.3 8.63% 0.52 1.2
CAGR CAGR 08-12 08-18 21.4% 9.4% 1.8% 3.0% 3.8% 5.1% 8.1% 9.4% -2.2% 1.2% -13.0% -5.7% 16.3% 14.4%
18.5 2.51% 19.8 38.3
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Madeira – Before
€ million EBIT Depreciation Cash Flow from Op. Act Income Taxes Capital Expenditure Working Capital Changes Free Cash Flow WACC Discount Factor Discounted Cash Flow PV of Cash Flows Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value Enterprise Value
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
2.0 3.6 5.7 -0.5 -8.9 0.4 -3.3 8.39%
0.4 4.2 4.6 -0.1 -4.4 0.7 0.8 8.39%
0.9 4.7 5.6 -0.2 -2.6 0.2 3.0 8.39%
1.0 4.8 5.7 -0.2 -2.8 0.2 2.9 8.39% 1.00 2.9
1.4 5.0 6.3 -0.3 -3.2 0.2 2.9 8.39% 0.85 2.5
1.5 5.3 6.7 -0.4 -3.9 0.2 2.7 8.39% 0.67 1.8
1.5 5.6 7.1 -0.4 -4.6 0.4 2.5 8.39% 0.52 1.3
CAGR CAGR 08-12 08-18 37.8% 15.1% 1.6% 2.8% 3.2% 4.4% 13.7% 15.1% -3.0% 0.5% -13.0% -5.7% 13.6% 11.9%
18.3 2.51% 23.0 41.3
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 15 of 26
Jerónimo Martins
Millennium investment banking
Biedronka
PLN million EBIT Depreciation Cash Flow from Op. Act Income Taxes Capital Expenditure Working Capital Changes Free Cash Flow WACC Discount Factor Discounted Cash Flow PV of Cash Flows Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value Enterprise Value YE07E PLN/EUR Enterrprise Value (€ mn)
12 April 2010
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
348.7 183.5 532.1 -66.2 -754.2 257.1 -31.2 11.10%
618.2 236.0 854.2 -117.5 -1,788.9 368.3 -683.8 11.10% 0.00% 0.00%
877.7 295.2 1,172.9 -166.8 -786.0 404.0 624.2 11.10% 0.00% 0.00%
1,074.9 339.4 1,414.3 -204.2 -1,170.8 312.6 351.8 11.10% 1.00 351.8
1,555.8 488.8 2,044.6 -295.6 -1,334.4 411.6 826.2 11.10% 0.81 669.4
2,017.4 646.7 2,664.1 -383.3 -1,086.6 227.2 1,421.5 11.10% 0.59 840.0
2018E
2025E
2,265.2 2,567.7 748.6 1,053.3 3,013.7 3,621.0 -430.4 -487.9 -1,012.1 -1,582.4 104.8 183.6 1,676.1 1,734.3 11.10% 11.10% 0.43 0.21 722.4 357.9
CAGR CAGR 08-12 16-25 9.7% 2.1% 7.6% 5.0% 9.1% 2.9% 9.7% 2.1% -2.9% 6.5% 1.1% -0.8% nm 0.2%
10,273.9 4.05% 5,283.34 15,557.24 3.95 3,937.0
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Biedronka – Before
PLN million EBIT Depreciation Cash Flow from Op. Act Income Taxes Capital Expenditure Working Capital Changes Free Cash Flow WACC Discount Factor Discounted Cash Flow PV of Cash Flows Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value Enterprise Value YE07E PLN/EUR Enterrprise Value (€ mn)
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
348.7 183.5 532.1 -66.2 -754.2 257.1 -31.2 11.29%
618.2 236.0 854.2 -117.5 -1,788.9 368.3 -683.8 11.29% 0.00% 0.00%
833.9 306.8 1,140.7 -158.4 -868.5 379.2 493.0 11.29% 0.00% 0.00%
1,010.1 352.8 1,362.9 -191.9 -1,130.3 280.0 320.7 11.29% 1.00 320.7
1,459.2 508.1 1,967.3 -277.3 -1,279.2 366.1 776.9 11.29% 0.81 627.2
1,860.0 672.2 2,532.1 -353.4 -975.7 214.1 1,417.1 11.29% 0.59 830.0
2018E
2025E
2,085.9 2,378.7 778.1 1,094.9 2,864.1 3,473.6 -396.3 -452.0 -984.4 -1,566.6 100.6 176.1 1,583.9 1,631.2 11.29% 11.29% 0.42 0.20 672.9 327.7
CAGR CAGR 08-12 16-25 9.0% 2.2% 8.0% 5.0% 8.7% 3.0% 9.0% 2.2% -3.3% 7.6% -0.1% -0.6% nm -0.3%
9,694.6 4.25% 4,851.88 14,546.49 4.19 3,469.3
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Manufacturing
€ million
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
EBIT Depreciation Cash Flow from Op. Activit Income Taxes Capital Expenditure Working Capital Changes Free Cash Flow WACC Discount Factor Discounted Cash Flow PV of Cash Flows Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value Enterprise Value Stake Attrib. JM
74.7 12.1 86.8 -24.7 -16.7 -7.5 38.0
74.4 9.3 83.7 -24.6 -19.4 -7.7 32.0
75.4 8.4 83.7 -24.9 -10.7 -8.7 39.4
75.0 9.4 84.4 -24.7 -10.7 -7.3 41.7 10.65% 1.00 41.7
80.4 9.8 90.2 -26.5 -8.7 -7.4 47.6 10.65% 0.82 38.9
81.8 10.4 92.2 -27.0 -9.0 -7.7 48.5 10.65% 0.61 29.3
86.8 11.1 97.8 -28.6 -9.6 -9.8 49.8 10.65% 0.45 22.3
CAGR CAGR 08-12 08-18 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% -18.2% -6.9% -0.9% 2.4% 10.4% 4.5%
292.0 2.51% 283.7 575.7 45.0% 259.0
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 16 of 26
Millennium investment banking Manufacturing – Before
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
€ million
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
EBIT Depreciation Cash Flow from Op. Activit Income Taxes Capital Expenditure Working Capital Changes Free Cash Flow WACC Discount Factor Discounted Cash Flow PV of Cash Flows Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value Enterprise Value Stake Attrib. JM
74.7 12.1 86.8 -24.7 -16.7 -7.5 38.0
71.1 12.7 83.7 -23.5 -19.4 -7.7 33.1
69.8 14.0 83.8 -23.0 -10.6 -7.2 42.9
70.3 14.3 84.6 -23.2 -10.7 -7.3 43.4 10.65% 1.00 43.4
75.6 14.8 90.4 -24.9 -8.7 -7.5 49.3 10.65% 0.82 40.3
76.7 15.7 92.4 -25.3 -9.0 -7.7 50.4 10.65% 0.61 30.5
81.4 16.7 98.1 -26.8 -9.6 -9.8 51.8 10.65% 0.45 23.2
CAGR CAGR 08-12 08-18 1.6% 1.4% 4.0% 2.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% -18.2% -6.8% -0.9% 2.4% 10.5% 4.6%
303.2 2.51% 294.8 598.0 45.0% 269.1
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
JM – Shareholder structure
Shareholder Structure - 10th August # Shares Soc. Francisco Manuel dos Santos, SGPS Asteck, AS Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Direct stake Throught Threadneedle Asset Management, Ltd Own Shares held by JM Free Float Total Shares Voting Shares
353,119,573 62,929,322 12,418,436 804,871 11,613,565 859,000 199,966,889 629,293,220 628,434,220
% Economic Stake 56.11% 10.00% 1.97% 0.13% 1.85% 0.14% 31.78%
% Voting Rights 56.19% 10.01% 1.98% 0.13% 1.85% 0.00%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Food retail multiples
Food Retail - Multiples
Carrefour Metro Ahold Casino Delhaize JM UK Sainsbury
Last Country Price 35,85 FR 40,54 GE 9,23 NE 60,35 FR 56,73 BE 7,001 PO 330,70
GB
Mkt Cap (€ mn) 25.271 13.184 10.996 6.660 5.722 4.406 7.073
EV/Sales 2009 2010 0,36 0,34 0,28 0,27 0,43 0,42 0,43 0,39 0,40 0,39 0,73 0,62 0,39
0,38
EV/EBITDA 2009 2010 7,0 6,4 5,5 5,1 6,0 5,5 6,1 5,6 5,4 5,2 10,2 8,8 6,9
6,5
EV/EBIT 2009 2010 11,9 10,6 9,3 8,4 9,3 8,5 9,4 8,6 8,2 8,0 15,1 13,4 11,7 11,0
PER 2009 2010 17,7 15,2 17,0 14,1 12,2 11,5 13,4 12,2 11,3 11,1 22,2 18,9 14,4
13,4
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 17 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
Divisional Estimates
Expansion plans Stores Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Selling Area (th sqm) Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Average Selling Area (th sqm) Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Sales Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Sales Densities Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka)
2007
2008
2009
1,349 256 33 15 1,045 1,016.8 355.8 109.6 14.6 536.7 994.3 333.6 109.8 14.2 536.7 5,349.7 1,937.5 626.1 123.3 2,392.3 5.4 5.8 5.7 8.7 4.5
1,752 343 35 15 1,359 1,316.9 433.0 115.7 14.6 753.5 1,275.3 394.4 112.7 14.6 753.5 6,893.7 2,310.2 654.5 128.4 3,520.9 5.4 5.9 5.8 8.8 4.7
1,859 343 35 15 1,466 1,377.9 434.7 114.4 14.3 814.5 1,377.9 433.9 115.1 14.5 814.5 7,317.1 2,500.8 688.5 131.6 3,724.7 5.3 5.8 6.0 9.1 4.6
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
2,037 2,424 2,704 349 363 363 37 40 40 15 15 15 1,636 2,006 2,286 1,493.6 1,742.3 1,913.0 440.8 455.0 455.0 120.4 129.4 129.4 14.3 14.3 14.3 918.1 1,143.6 1,314.3 1,422.8 1,666.8 1,878.7 437.8 451.5 455.0 117.4 127.9 129.4 14.3 14.3 14.3 853.3 1,073.1 1,280.0 8,592.9 10,887.5 12,861.0 2,711.5 2,942.7 3,177.2 709.2 752.4 806.3 134.6 140.5 149.1 4,764.1 6,773.6 8,440.3 6.0 6.5 6.8 6.2 6.5 7.0 6.0 5.9 6.2 9.4 9.8 10.4 5.6 6.3 6.6
2,808 363 40 15 2,390 1,976.6 455.0 129.4 14.3 1,377.9 1,963.2 455.0 129.4 14.3 1,364.5 13,822.2 3,371.7 855.6 158.2 9,130.9 7.0 7.4 6.6 11.1 6.7
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Biedronka (euros) Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin Depreciation EBIT Capex Capex % sales EBITDA - Capex EBITDA - Capex % sales
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2,392.3 141.1 5.9% 48.7 92.5 200.0 8.4% -58.9 -2.5%
3,520.9 242.9 6.9% 67.1 175.8 508.8 14.5% -265.8 -7.6%
3,724.7 271.9 7.3% 68.4 203.5 182.2 4.9% 89.7 2.4%
4,764.1 351.1 7.4% 84.3 266.8 290.7 6.1% 60.4 1.3%
6,773.6 506.0 7.5% 121.0 385.0 330.2 4.9% 175.8 2.6%
8,440.3 630.5 7.5% 153.0 477.5 257.1 3.0% 373.3 4.4%
2018E
2019E
2020E
2025E
9,130.9 9,321.5 9,539.6 10,839.3 682.1 687.0 703.1 758.8 7.5% 7.4% 7.4% 7.0% 237.4 71.1 85.0 148.6 444.7 615.9 618.0 610.2 229.1 245.3 262.9 331.6 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 3.1% 453.0 441.7 440.2 427.2 5.0% 4.7% 4.6% 3.9%
CAGR 08-25 6.4% 6.5% 0.1% 4.5% 7.2% -2.4% -8.3% nm nm
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Biedronka (euros) – Before
Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin Depreciation EBIT Capex Capex % sales EBITDA - Capex EBITDA - Capex % sales
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2,392.3 141.1 5.9% 48.7 92.5 200.0 8.4% -58.9 -2.5%
3,520.9 242.9 6.9% 67.1 175.8 508.8 14.5% -265.8 -7.6%
3,724.7 264.5 7.1% 71.1 193.3 201.3 5.4% 63.1 1.7%
4,562.6 328.5 7.2% 85.0 243.5 272.4 6.0% 56.1 1.2%
6,181.9 457.5 7.4% 118.1 339.3 297.4 4.8% 160.0 2.6%
7,564.4 559.8 7.4% 148.6 411.2 215.7 2.9% 344.1 4.5%
2018E
2019E
2020E
2025E
8,134.1 8,287.5 8,473.2 601.9 605.0 618.5 7.4% 7.3% 7.3% 211.5 70.5 94.3 390.4 534.5 524.2 206.9 226.7 248.1 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 395.0 378.3 370.5 4.9% 4.6% 4.4%
9,627.3 673.9 7.0% 209.5 464.4 303.9 3.2% 370.0 3.8%
CAGR 08-25 5.7% 5.8% 0.1% 6.5% 5.5% -2.8% -8.1% nm nm
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 18 of 26
Millennium investment banking Margins EBITDA margin Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services Depreciation to Sales Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services EBIT margin Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services Capex to Sales Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services EBITDA - Capex to Sales Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
6.6% 7.0% 6.0% 4.6% 5.9% 14.1% 2.4% -2.4% -3.2% -1.2% -2.9% -2.0% -2.1% 0.0% 4.2% 3.8% 4.8% 1.7% 3.9% 12.0% 2.4% -8.8% -12.4% -2.0% -7.2% -8.4% -3.0% -2.2% -5.4% 4.0% -2.6% -2.5% 11.1% 2.4%
6.9% 6.7% 6.1% 3.6% 6.9% 14.3% 1.3% -2.3% -3.2% -1.3% -2.6% -1.9% -1.6% 0.0% 4.6% 3.5% 4.8% 1.0% 5.0% 12.7% 1.3% -12.7% -14.2% -3.9% -3.4% -14.5% -3.4% -5.8% -7.5% 2.2% 0.2% -7.6% 10.9% 1.3%
7.2% 7.0% 6.0% 4.8% 7.3% 15.3% 1.6% -2.3% -3.3% -1.3% -2.9% -1.8% -1.4% 0.0% 4.9% 3.7% 4.7% 1.9% 5.5% 13.9% 1.6% -4.3% -4.5% -1.6% -0.8% -4.9% -2.0% 3.0% 2.5% 4.4% 4.0% 2.4% 13.3% 1.6%
7.3% 7.2% 6.1% 4.6% 7.4% 15.9% 2.2% -2.2% -3.2% -1.2% -2.9% -1.8% -1.8% 0.0% 5.2% 4.0% 4.9% 1.7% 5.6% 14.1% 2.2% -5.0% -3.9% -3.3% -1.5% -6.1% -2.0% 2.4% 3.3% 2.8% 3.1% 1.3% 13.9% 2.2%
7.5% 7.4% 6.3% 4.8% 7.5% 16.6% 2.3% -2.1% -3.2% -1.2% -2.9% -1.8% -1.8% 0.0% 5.4% 4.2% 5.1% 1.9% 5.7% 14.8% 2.3% -4.4% -4.1% -2.6% -2.5% -4.9% -2.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.7% 2.3% 2.6% 14.6% 2.3%
7.5% 7.4% 6.5% 4.8% 7.5% 16.4% 2.3% -2.2% -3.4% -1.2% -2.9% -1.8% -1.9% 0.0% 5.3% 4.0% 5.3% 1.9% 5.7% 14.5% 2.3% -3.0% -3.4% -2.0% -2.8% -3.0% -2.5% 4.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2.0% 4.4% 13.9% 2.3%
7.5% 7.4% 6.5% 4.8% 7.5% 16.4% 2.3% -2.3% -3.8% -1.2% -2.9% -1.9% -1.9% -0.9% 5.2% 3.6% 5.3% 1.9% 5.6% 14.5% 1.4% -2.7% -3.4% -2.0% -3.1% -2.5% -2.5% 4.8% 4.0% 4.5% 1.7% 5.0% 13.9% 2.3%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Margins – Before
EBITDA margin Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services Depreciation to Sales Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services EBIT margin Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services Capex to Sales Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services EBITDA - Capex to Sales Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Retail and Wholesale in Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Services
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
6.6% 7.0% 6.0% 4.6% 5.9% 14.1% 2.4% -2.4% -3.2% -1.2% -2.9% -2.0% -2.1% 0.0% 4.2% 3.8% 4.8% 1.7% 3.9% 12.0% 2.4% -8.8% -12.4% -2.0% -7.2% -8.4% -3.0% -2.2% -5.4% 4.0% -2.6% -2.5% 11.1% 2.4%
6.9% 6.7% 6.1% 3.6% 6.9% 14.3% 1.3% -2.3% -3.1% -1.3% -3.3% -1.9% -2.1% 0.0% 4.6% 3.6% 4.8% 0.3% 5.0% 12.2% 1.3% -12.7% -14.2% -3.9% -3.4% -14.5% -3.4% -5.8% -7.5% 2.2% 0.2% -7.6% 10.9% 1.3%
7.2% 7.2% 6.2% 4.3% 7.1% 15.9% 2.5% -2.4% -3.2% -1.4% -3.5% -1.9% -2.6% 0.0% 4.8% 4.0% 4.8% 0.7% 5.2% 13.2% 2.5% -4.8% -5.4% -1.5% -2.0% -5.4% -2.0% 2.3% 1.8% 4.7% 2.3% 1.7% 13.9% 2.5%
7.3% 7.3% 6.3% 4.3% 7.2% 15.9% 2.5% -2.3% -3.2% -1.4% -3.5% -1.9% -2.7% 0.0% 5.0% 4.1% 4.9% 0.7% 5.3% 13.2% 2.5% -5.0% -4.1% -3.3% -2.1% -6.0% -2.0% 2.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.2% 1.2% 13.9% 2.5%
7.5% 7.5% 6.5% 4.5% 7.4% 16.6% 2.6% -2.3% -3.2% -1.3% -3.5% -1.9% -2.7% 0.0% 5.2% 4.3% 5.2% 1.0% 5.5% 13.9% 2.6% -4.3% -4.1% -2.6% -2.3% -4.8% -2.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.9% 2.2% 2.6% 14.6% 2.6%
7.5% 7.5% 6.5% 4.5% 7.4% 16.4% 2.6% -2.3% -3.4% -1.3% -3.5% -2.0% -2.8% 0.0% 5.1% 4.1% 5.2% 1.0% 5.4% 13.6% 2.6% -2.9% -3.4% -2.0% -2.6% -2.9% -2.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.5% 1.9% 4.5% 13.9% 2.6%
7.5% 7.5% 6.5% 4.5% 7.4% 16.4% 2.6% -2.4% -3.7% -1.3% -3.5% -2.0% -2.8% -0.9% 5.0% 3.8% 5.2% 1.0% 5.4% 13.6% 1.7% -2.7% -3.4% -2.0% -2.9% -2.5% -2.5% 4.7% 4.1% 4.5% 1.6% 4.9% 13.9% 2.6%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Page 19 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
Revenues Consolidated sales
€ million Consolidated Sales Portugal Poland Domestic Retail ex-Madeira Wholesale ex-Madeira Madeira Manufacturing Services Biedronka € Biedronka Zlt Intragroup Adjustments
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2012E
5,349.7 2,957.4 2,392.3 2,111.5 626.1 123.3 246.3 75.9 2,392.3 9,018.9 -225.7
6,893.7 3,372.8 3,520.9 2,503.4 654.5 128.4 253.9 81.8 3,520.9 12,380.0 -249.1
7,317.1 3,592.4 3,724.7 2,708.3 688.5 131.6 237.8 87.2 3,724.7 16,066.8 -260.9
8,592.9 3,828.7 4,764.1 2,925.0 709.2 134.6 239.6 90.6 4,764.1 19,189.9 -270.4
10,887.5 4,113.9 6,773.6 3,168.7 752.4 140.5 244.5 95.2 6,773.6 27,371.2 -287.3
2015E
2018E
12,861.0 13,822.2 4,420.6 4,691.2 8,440.3 9,130.9 3,419.0 3,628.2 806.3 855.6 149.1 158.2 253.1 268.6 101.1 107.2 8,440.3 9,130.9 35,664.0 40,344.6 -307.9 -326.7
CAGR 08- CAGR 0812 18 12.1% 7.2% 5.1% 3.4% 17.8% 10.0% 6.1% 3.8% 3.5% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1% -0.9% 0.6% 3.9% 2.7% 17.8% 10.0% 21.9% 12.5% 3.6% 2.7%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Consolidated sales – Before
€ million Consolidated Sales Portugal Poland Domestic Retail ex-Madeira Wholesale ex-Madeira Madeira Manufacturing Services Biedronka € Biedronka Zlt Intragroup Adjustments
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
5,349.7 2,957.4 2,392.3 2,111.5 626.1 123.3 246.3 75.9 2,392.3 9,018.9 -225.7
6,893.7 3,372.8 3,520.9 2,503.4 654.5 128.4 253.9 81.8 3,520.9 12,380.0 -249.1
7,336.1 3,636.0 3,700.0 2,749.2 692.2 131.0 239.9 89.2 3,700.0 16,095.1 -265.4
8,341.0 3,870.2 4,470.8 2,980.1 716.5 134.9 241.1 91.0 4,470.8 19,317.7 -293.3
10,515.6 4,175.0 6,340.7 3,254.8 755.5 140.3 241.1 94.6 6,340.7 27,910.3 -311.4
2015E
2018E
12,419.4 13,344.6 4,485.5 4,745.3 7,933.9 8,599.3 3,519.5 3,734.9 809.6 859.2 148.9 158.0 241.1 241.1 100.4 106.6 7,933.9 8,599.3 36,734.8 41,881.2 -334.1 -354.5
CAGR 08- CAGR 0818 12 11.1% 6.8% 5.5% 3.5% 15.8% 9.3% 6.8% 4.1% 3.7% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% -1.3% -0.5% 3.7% 2.7% 15.8% 9.3% 22.5% 13.0% 5.7% 3.6%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Growth Rate of Revenues
% Consolidated Sales Portugal Poland Domestic Retail ex-Madeira Wholesale ex-Madeira Madeira Manufacturing Services Biedronka € Biedronka Zlt Intragroup Adjustments
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
21.4% 9.9% 39.5% 13.3% 4.0% 10.9% -2.6% 1.6% 39.5% 35.2% 6.0%
28.9% 14.0% 47.2% 18.6% 4.5% 4.2% 3.1% 7.8% 47.2% 37.3% 10.4%
6.1% 6.5% 5.8% 8.2% 5.2% 2.5% -6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 29.8% 4.7%
17.4% 6.6% 27.9% 8.0% 3.0% 2.3% 0.8% 4.0% 27.9% 19.4% 3.6%
11.4% 3.7% 16.7% 4.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 16.7% 18.4% 3.1%
3.9% 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 5.0% 6.6% 2.0%
2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 3.6% 2.0%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Growth Rate of Revenues - Before
% Consolidated Sales Portugal Poland Domestic Retail ex-Madeira Wholesale ex-Madeira Madeira Manufacturing Services Biedronka € Biedronka Zlt Intragroup Adjustments
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
21.4% 9.9% 39.5% 13.3% 4.0% 10.9% -2.6% 1.6% 39.5% 35.2% 6.0%
28.9% 14.0% 47.2% 18.6% 4.5% 4.2% 3.1% 7.8% 47.2% 37.3% 10.4%
6.4% 7.8% 5.1% 9.8% 5.8% 2.0% -5.5% 9.0% 5.1% 30.0% 6.6%
13.7% 6.4% 20.8% 8.4% 3.5% 3.0% 0.5% 2.0% 20.8% 20.0% 10.5%
11.4% 3.8% 17.0% 4.5% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 17.0% 19.0% 2.9%
4.0% 1.9% 5.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.3% 7.1% 2.0%
2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.1% 3.8% 2.0%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 20 of 26
Jerónimo Martins
Millennium investment banking
Biedronka Revenues Poland € Poland Zlt
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2012E
2,392.3 9,018.9
3,520.9 12,380.0
3,724.7 16,066.8
4,764.1 19,189.9
6,773.6 27,371.2
12 April 2010
2018E
2020E
2025E
8,440.3 9,130.9 35,664.0 40,344.6
9,539.6 43,316.6
10,839.3 51,728.6
2018E
2020E
2025E
7,564.4 8,134.1 34,218.1 38,703.8
8,473.2 41,554.6
9,627.3 49,623.4
2015E
CAGR 08-25 6.4% 8.3%
CAGR 08-25 6.4% 8.3%
CAGR 08-25 5.7% 8.0%
CAGR 08-25 5.7% 8.0%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Biedronka Revenues – Before
Poland € Poland Zlt
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2012E
2,392.3 9,018.9
3,520.9 12,380.0
3,724.7 16,066.8
4,562.6 18,929.0
6,181.9 26,585.0
2015E
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Revenues Screening
€ million Consolidated Sales Portugal Poland Domestic Retail ex-Madeira Wholesale ex-Madeira Madeira Manufacturing Services Biedronka € Intragroup Adjustments
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
100% 55% 45% 39% 12% 2% 5% 1% 45% -4%
100% 49% 51% 36% 9% 2% 4% 1% 51% -4%
100% 49% 51% 37% 9% 2% 3% 1% 51% -4%
100% 45% 55% 34% 8% 2% 3% 1% 55% -3%
100% 38% 62% 29% 7% 1% 2% 1% 62% -3%
100% 34% 66% 27% 6% 1% 2% 1% 66% -2%
100% 34% 66% 26% 6% 1% 2% 1% 66% -2%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Revenues Screening – Before
€ million Consolidated Sales Portugal Poland Domestic Retail ex-Madeira Wholesale ex-Madeira Madeira Manufacturing Services Biedronka € Intragroup Adjustments
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2012E
2015E
2018E
100% 55% 45% 39% 12% 2% 5% 1% 45% -4%
100% 49% 51% 36% 9% 2% 4% 1% 51% -4%
100% 49% 51% 37% 9% 2% 3% 1% 51% -4%
100% 45% 55% 34% 9% 2% 3% 1% 55% -3%
100% 40% 60% 30% 8% 1% 2% 1% 60% -3%
100% 37% 63% 28% 7% 1% 2% 1% 63% -3%
100% 37% 63% 28% 7% 1% 2% 1% 63% -3%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 21 of 26
Millennium investment banking
Jerónimo Martins
12 April 2010
Quarterly Preview
P&L
€ million Sales EBITDA D&A EBIT Net Financials Non-Operating Items EBT Income Taxes Minority Interests Net Income EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Effective Tax Rate (%) Net margin (%)
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
1,504.9 1,666.8 91.9 107.5 -35.9 -38.0 56.0 69.5 -24.8 -19.3 9.6 -10.6 40.7 39.5 -8.2 -10.4 -0.6 3.9 31.9 33.0 6.1% 6.4% 3.7% 4.2% -20.2% -26.4% 2.1% 2.0%
1Q08
1,854.0 132.6 -40.8 91.7 -17.6 8.9 83.0 -19.3 -7.1 56.6 7.2% 4.9% -23.3% 3.1%
1,868.0 141.0 -42.8 98.2 -23.5 -15.7 58.9 -8.2 -9.0 41.8 7.6% 5.3% -13.8% 2.2%
1,605.1 100.7 -40.9 59.7 -17.5 0.8 43.0 -7.3 -3.2 32.5 6.3% 3.7% -16.9% 2.0%
1,775.4 118.9 -40.9 78.0 -17.6 -5.3 55.2 -12.4 -2.3 40.5 6.7% 4.4% -22.5% 2.3%
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10E
2Q10E
1,937.7 1,998.8 1,889.6 2,086.5 154.1 154.4 121.1 141.3 -42.7 -43.7 -45.5 -45.4 111.4 110.6 75.7 95.8 -18.1 -17.2 -16.8 -16.8 -1.7 -4.2 0.0 0.0 91.5 89.2 58.9 79.0 -18.7 -17.3 -11.6 -19.7 -7.1 -10.3 -3.9 -2.8 65.7 61.7 43.4 56.5 8.0% 7.7% 6.4% 6.8% 5.7% 5.5% 4.0% 4.6% -20.5% -19.3% -19.6% -25.0% 3.4% 3.1% 2.3% 2.7%
3Q10E
4Q10E
2,283.0 2,333.8 184.7 184.3 -47.4 -48.6 137.3 135.7 -17.4 -16.5 0.0 0.0 119.9 119.2 -29.8 -27.5 -8.6 -12.5 81.4 79.3 8.1% 7.9% 6.0% 5.8% -24.9% -23.0% 3.6% 3.4%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking P&L– Before
€ million Sales EBITDA D&A EBIT Net Financials Non-Operating Items EBT Income Taxes Minority Interests Net Income EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Effective Tax Rate (%) Net margin (%)
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
1,504.9 1,666.8 91.9 107.5 -35.9 -38.0 56.0 69.5 -24.8 -19.3 9.6 -10.6 40.7 39.5 -8.2 -10.4 -0.6 3.9 31.9 33.0 6.1% 6.4% 3.7% 4.2% -20.2% -26.4% 2.1% 2.0%
1Q08
1,854.0 132.6 -40.8 91.7 -17.6 8.9 83.0 -19.3 -7.1 56.6 7.2% 4.9% -23.3% 3.1%
1,868.0 141.0 -42.8 98.2 -23.5 -15.7 58.9 -8.2 -9.0 41.8 7.6% 5.3% -13.8% 2.2%
1,605.1 100.7 -40.9 59.7 -17.5 0.8 43.0 -7.3 -3.2 32.5 6.3% 3.7% -16.9% 2.0%
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09E
1Q10E
2Q10E
1,775.4 1,937.7 1,998.8 1,825.2 2,021.4 118.9 154.1 152.2 117.3 136.5 -40.9 -42.7 -47.6 -45.1 -45.1 78.0 111.4 104.6 72.2 91.4 -17.6 -18.1 -17.8 -17.3 -17.3 -5.3 -1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.2 91.5 86.8 54.9 74.1 -12.4 -18.7 -18.3 -10.5 -17.9 -2.3 -7.1 -9.7 -3.8 -2.7 40.5 65.7 58.8 40.6 53.5 6.7% 8.0% 7.6% 6.4% 6.8% 4.4% 5.7% 5.2% 4.0% 4.5% -22.5% -20.5% -21.1% -19.0% -24.1% 2.3% 3.4% 2.9% 2.2% 2.6%
3Q10E
4Q10E
2,229.0 2,277.1 177.1 176.4 -47.1 -52.5 130.1 124.0 -17.9 -17.5 0.0 0.0 112.2 106.4 -27.0 -26.4 -8.4 -11.5 76.8 68.6 7.9% 7.7% 5.8% 5.4% -24.0% -24.8% 3.4% 3.0%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking Sales by business
€ million Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Domestic Services Other/Intragroup Sales Total Sales
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
550.3 591.1 146.0 158.8 29.8 30.5 756.6 862.2 59.0 66.0 17.8 18.1 -54.7 -59.8 1,504.9 1,666.8
1Q08
668.7 186.2 34.4 939.8 73.8 20.8 -69.6 1,854.0
693.2 163.5 33.8 962.4 55.1 25.1 -65.0 1,868.0
612.2 153.6 28.5 795.7 54.2 18.7 -57.8 1,605.1
664.6 171.1 32.3 886.5 64.0 21.6 -64.6 1,775.4
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10E
2Q10E
696.7 734.9 662.4 713.9 195.0 168.8 158.2 174.1 35.3 35.5 30.2 32.5 992.0 1,050.5 1,024.3 1,146.7 69.0 50.7 54.4 64.2 21.9 25.0 19.6 21.2 -72.1 -66.6 -59.6 -66.2 1,937.7 1,998.8 1,889.6 2,086.5
3Q10E
4Q10E
755.9 792.7 201.3 175.5 36.1 35.9 1,270.2 1,322.9 69.7 51.3 22.9 26.9 -73.2 -71.4 2,283.0 2,333.8
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Sales by business – Before
€ million Domestic Retail Ex-Madeira Domestic Wholesale Ex-Madeira Madeira Polish Retail (Biedronka) Manufacturing Domestic Services Other/Intragroup Sales Total Sales
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
550.3 591.1 146.0 158.8 29.8 30.5 756.6 862.2 59.0 66.0 17.8 18.1 -54.7 -59.8 1,504.9 1,666.8
668.7 186.2 34.4 939.8 73.8 20.8 -69.6 1,854.0
693.2 163.5 33.8 962.4 55.1 25.1 -65.0 1,868.0
612.2 153.6 28.5 795.7 54.2 18.7 -57.8 1,605.1
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09E
1Q10E
2Q10E
664.6 696.7 734.9 641.8 692.5 171.1 195.0 168.8 161.3 177.5 32.3 35.3 35.5 30.2 32.5 886.5 992.0 1,050.5 977.5 1,101.6 64.0 69.0 50.7 55.3 63.5 21.6 21.9 25.0 19.6 21.3 -64.6 -72.1 -66.6 -60.7 -67.4 1,775.4 1,937.7 1,998.8 1,825.2 2,021.4
3Q10E
4Q10E
753.1 787.9 205.2 178.9 36.1 35.9 1,216.5 1,266.9 69.7 51.7 22.9 26.9 -74.5 -71.1 2,229.0 2,277.1
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 22 of 26
Jerónimo Martins
Millennium investment banking Seasonality Weight in FY Operating Revenues EBITDA EBIT Net Income Growth Rates YoY Operating Revenues EBITDA EBIT Net Income Growth Rates QoQ Operating Revenues EBITDA EBIT Net Income
12 April 2010
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10E
2Q10E
3Q10E
4Q10E
22% 19% 18% 20%
24% 23% 22% 20%
27% 28% 29% 35%
27% 30% 31% 26%
22% 19% 17% 16%
24% 23% 22% 20%
26% 29% 31% 33%
27% 29% 31% 31%
22% 19% 17% 17%
24% 22% 22% 22%
27% 29% 31% 31%
27% 29% 31% 30%
32% 44% 61% 74%
30% 37% 45% 41%
34% 32% 35% 22%
21% 29% 33% -4%
7% 10% 7% 2%
7% 11% 12% 23%
5% 16% 21% 16%
7% 9% 13% 48%
18% 20% 27% 33%
18% 19% 23% 40%
18% 20% 23% 24%
17% 19% 23% 29%
-2% -16% -24% -26%
11% 17% 24% 3%
11% 23% 32% 72%
1% 6% 7% -26%
-14% -29% -39% -22%
11% 18% 31% 24%
9% 30% 43% 62%
3% 0% -1% -6%
-5% -22% -32% -30%
10% 17% 27% 30%
9% 31% 43% 44%
2% 0% -1% -3%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Seasonality - Before Weight in FY Operating Revenues EBITDA EBIT Net Income Growth Rates YoY Operating Revenues EBITDA EBIT Net Income Growth Rates QoQ Operating Revenues EBITDA EBIT Net Income
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09E
1Q10E
2Q10E
3Q10E
4Q10E
22% 19% 18% 20%
24% 23% 22% 20%
27% 28% 29% 35%
27% 30% 31% 26%
22% 19% 17% 16%
24% 23% 22% 20%
26% 29% 31% 33%
27% 29% 30% 30%
22% 19% 17% 17%
24% 22% 22% 22%
27% 29% 31% 32%
27% 29% 30% 29%
32% 44% 61% 74%
30% 37% 45% 41%
34% 32% 35% 22%
21% 29% 33% -4%
7% 10% 7% 2%
7% 11% 12% 23%
5% 16% 21% 16%
7% 8% 7% 41%
14% 16% 21% 25%
14% 15% 17% 32%
15% 15% 17% 17%
14% 16% 19% 17%
-2% -16% -24% -26%
11% 17% 24% 3%
11% 23% 32% 72%
1% 6% 7% -26%
-14% -29% -39% -22%
11% 18% 31% 24%
9% 30% 43% 62%
3% -1% -6% -11%
-9% -23% -31% -31%
11% 16% 27% 32%
10% 30% 42% 44%
2% 0% -5% -11%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 23 of 26
Jerónimo Martins
Millennium investment banking
12 April 2010
Consolidated Estimates P&L
€ million Sales EBITDA Depreciation EBITA Amortisation EBIT Net Financials Non-operating Items EBT Income Taxes Minority Interests Net Income EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Implied borrowing rate (%) Effective tax rate (%) Minorities net margin (%) Net margin (%)
2007
2008
2009
2010E
5,349.7 351.4 -126.7 224.7 0.0 224.7 -59.2 22.3 187.8 -36.9 -19.6 131.3 6.6% 4.2% 10.3% 19.6% 2.1% 2.5%
6,893.7 473.0 -157.6 315.4 0.0 315.4 -85.3 -7.9 222.1 -46.1 -12.8 163.2 6.9% 4.6% 11.4% 20.8% 1.1% 2.4%
7,317.1 528.0 -168.3 359.7 0.0 359.7 -70.4 -10.4 278.9 -55.6 -22.9 200.3 7.2% 4.9% 8.7% 19.9% 1.9% 2.7%
8,592.9 631.4 -186.9 444.5 0.0 444.5 -67.5 0.0 377.0 -88.6 -27.8 260.6 7.3% 5.2% 10.2% 23.5% 2.1% 3.0%
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2018E
9,772.3 10,887.5 11,856.1 12,374.2 12,861.0 13,822.2 725.2 816.3 888.7 928.0 964.4 1,036.6 -209.6 -233.1 -260.2 -270.5 -281.2 -316.9 515.6 583.2 628.4 657.6 683.3 719.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 515.6 583.2 628.4 657.6 683.3 719.6 -56.7 -44.0 -24.5 -15.6 -15.2 -7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 458.9 539.2 603.9 642.0 668.1 712.4 -107.9 -126.7 -141.9 -150.9 -157.0 -167.4 -31.6 -35.4 -37.9 -40.0 -41.6 -47.4 319.5 377.0 424.1 451.2 469.5 497.6 7.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 5.3% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 11.2% 11.8% 10.3% 11.9% 16.6% 19.3% 23.5% 23.5% 23.5% 23.5% 23.5% 23.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6%
CAGR 09-12 14.2% 15.6% 11.5% 17.5% nm 17.5% -14.5% nm 24.6% 31.6% 15.6% 23.5% 0.1pp 0.1pp 0.8pp 0.9pp 0.1pp 0.2pp
CAGR 09-18 7.3% 7.8% 7.3% 8.0% nm 8.0% -22.4% nm 11.0% 13.0% 8.4% 10.6% 0.0pp 0.0pp 1.1pp 0.4pp 0.1pp 0.1pp
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Financial Balance Sheets
€ million Fixed Assets Non-Operating Assets Working Capital Invested Capital Net Debt Minority Interests Equity Capital Employed
2007
2008
2009
2,166.8 78.2 -756.5 1,488.5 624.3 287.3 576.9 1,488.5
2,701.6 81.3 -975.0 1,807.8 876.7 281.3 649.8 1,807.8
2,838.2 52.1 -1,081.6 1,808.6 742.9 287.6 778.1 1,808.6
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2018E
3,013.7 3,261.6 52.1 52.1 -1,230.3 -1,392.2 1,835.4 1,921.5 575.6 435.9 311.0 335.9 948.8 1,149.7 1,835.4 1,921.5
3,506.2 52.1 -1,531.6 2,026.7 312.3 363.4 1,351.0 2,026.7
3,613.9 52.1 -1,657.8 2,008.2 161.4 392.2 1,454.6 2,008.2
3,713.7 52.1 -1,718.7 2,047.1 100.7 422.2 1,524.1 2,047.1
3,823.0 52.1 -1,774.3 2,100.7 82.5 453.3 1,565.0 2,100.7
3,992.8 52.1 -1,866.9 2,178.0 37.5 520.7 1,619.7 2,178.0
CAGR 09-12 7.3% 0.0% 12.3% 3.9% -25.1% 8.1% 20.2% 3.9%
CAGR 09-18 3.9% 0.0% 6.3% 2.1% -28.2% 6.8% 8.5% 2.1%
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Cash-Flow Statements
€ million Cash Flow from Operations Cash Flow from Investing Capex Cash Flow from Financing Cash Increase (Decrease)
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2018E
459.0 -486.0 -468.5 125.5 98.5
563.3 -718.0 -874.2 119.2 -35.4
526.3 -280.7 -312.0 -243.7 1.9
622.2 -362.1 -426.0 -270.3 -10.2
722.6 -457.5 -453.8 -265.0 0.0
784.9 -477.7 -479.2 -307.3 0.0
848.4 -368.0 -369.4 -480.5 0.0
822.6 -370.3 -371.7 -452.3 0.0
847.8 -390.4 -391.8 -457.4 0.0
886.5 -372.4 -373.8 -514.0 0.0
CAGR 09-12 14.3% 19.4% 15.4% 8.0% nm
CAGR 09-18 6.0% 3.2% 2.0% nm nm
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Debt Ratio Net Debt-to-Equity (incl. Minorities) Net Debt-to-EBITDA EBITDA Cover
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2018E
72% 1.8x 5.9x
94% 1.9x 5.5x
70% 1.4x 7.5x
46% 0.9x 9.4x
29% 0.6x 12.8x
18% 0.4x 18.6x
9% 0.2x 36.3x
5% 0.1x 59.7x
4% 0.1x 63.6x
2% 0.0x 143.4x
CAGR 09-12 -12.9pp -25.6x 276.4x
CAGR 09-18 -6.8pp -13.7x 1359.2x
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Page 24 of 26
Jerónimo Martins
Millennium investment banking
12 April 2010
DISCLOSURES • • • • •
• • • • • •
•
This report has been prepared on behalf of Millennium investment banking (Mib), a registered trademark of Banco Comercial Português, S.A. (Millennium bcp). Millennium bcp is regulated by Comissão de Mercado de Valores Mobiliários. A draft of the report was shown to the company. Neither the company was aware of the recommendation nor was it changed. Recommendations: Buy means more than 10% absolute return; Neutral means between 0% and +10% absolute return; Reduce means between -10% and 0% absolute return; Sell means less than -10% absolute return. Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in this report is current year-end or next year-end.§ Risk is defined by the analyst’s view in a qualitative way. Usually we update our models and price targets in between 6 and 18 months. Millennium bcp prohibits its analysts and members of their households to own any shares of the companies covered by them. BCP group may have business relationships with the companies mentioned in this report. Millennium bcp, expects to receive or intends to seek compensations for investment banking services from the companies mentioned in this report. The views expressed above, accurately reflect personal views of the authors. They have not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. There were not any agreements between the companies covered and the analysts regarding the recommendation.· Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of BCP group, which includes investment banking revenues. Jerónimo Martins 7,53 7,07 6,61 6,15 5,69 5,23 4,77 4,31 3,85
Recommendation
Stock Price
Abr-10
Mar-10
Fev-10
Jan-10
Dez-09
Nov-09
Out-09
Set-09
Ago-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
Mai-09
Abr-09
Mar-09
Buy Neutral Reduce Sell (Unrated)
Price Target
DISCLAIMER This information is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to enter into any particular deal or contract. It consists of data compiled by or of opinions or estimates from Banco Comercial Português, S.A. and no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. This information is merely an auxiliary means of analysis to be used by its recipients, who will be solely responsible for its use, including for any losses or damages that may, directly or indirectly, derive from it. Its reproduction is not allowed without permission from the BCP group. The data herein disclosed are merely indicative and reflect the market conditions prevailing on the date they have been collected. Thus, its accuracy and timing must absolutely be confirmed before its usage. Any alteration in the market conditions shall imply the introduction of changes in this report. This information / these opinions may be altered without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas of BCP group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
Page 25 of 26
OFFICE LOCATIONS Millennium investment banking Av. José Malhoa, Lote 27 - 5 1099-010 Lisboa Portugal
Telephone +351 21 003 7811 Fax
+351 21 003 7819 / 39
Equity Team
Luis Feria (Head of Equities) Equity Research +351 21 003 7820
António Seladas, CFA (Head) Fundamental Analysis
Alexandra Delgado (Telecoms) João Flores (Media and Retail) João Mateus (Industrials and Utilities) Rita Silva (Banks and IT) Vanda Mesquita (Utilities and Oil&Gas) Market Analysis
Ramiro Loureiro Sónia Martins Telma Santos Publishing
Sónia Primo Prime Brokerage +351 21 003 7855
Vitor Almeida (Head) Hugo Ferreira Pinto Institutional Equity Sales +351 21 003 7880
Karsten Sommer (Head) Pedro Gonçalves Equity Trading +351 21 003 7850
Paulo Cruz (Head) Gonçalo Lima Jorge Caldeira Manuel Lança Lopes Nuno Marques Paulo Santos Pedro Lalanda Tiago Alves Equity Derivatives +351 21 003 7890
Jorge Pina (Head) Diogo Justino Inês Conceição Marco Barata Maria Cardoso Baptista