Conf Call UBM 10.12

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Utility Solar Business Models: What are they, and what makes a good one? How can solar build on previous work? SEPA Conference Call Presentation October 12, 2007

Adapted from: SEPA Pre-Conference Workshop SolarPower 2007 Conference Long Beach, California September 24, 2007

Presented by: John Nimmons, J.D. SEPA Project Lead Mill Valley, CA 415.381.7310 [email protected]

Agenda „ What is a ‘business model’? „ What’s different about a utility business model? „ How can we evaluate utility solar business models? „ What work’s been done in this area, and how can solar

stakeholders build on it? ‰

STAC Utility DER Incentives Project Ê approach and participants Ê business cases considered Ê cost/benefit analysis and tools Ê results and recommendations

„ What are the next steps, and how can stakeholders participate? 2

What is a ‘business model’? “Business model is one of those terms of art that were central to the internet boom: It glorified all manner of half-baked plans. All it really meant was how you planned to make money.” *

* Michael Lewis, quoted in Chesbrough, H. and Rosenbloom, R.S, The Role of the Business Model in Capturing Value from Innovation, Industrial and Corporate Change, V.11, No.3.

3

*

But there’s more . . . „ Delivering value may require a paradigm shift ‰

some innovations succeed using familiar models, but ...

‰

those models don’t always fit the technical or market opportunity, so ...

‰

firms often need new perspectives to create, capture and deliver value from new opportunities, and ...

‰

they often have great difficulty departing from familiar ways

“Identifying and executing a new or different business model is an entrepreneurial act requiring insight into both the technology and the market.”

* from Chesbrough, H. and Rosenbloom, R.S., The Role of the Business Model in Capturing Value from Innovation

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A business model is ... „ ‘a focusing tool to mediate between technology and value’ *

Business BusinessModel Model Technical Inputs 9 solar technologies 9 applications 9 feasibility 9performance

‰ ‰ market market ‰ ‰ value valueproposition proposition ‰ value chain ‰ value chain ‰ ‰ cost cost&&profit profit ‰ value network ‰ value network ‰ ‰ competitive competitivestrategy strategy

Economic Outputs 9 value to utility customers 9 value to shareholders 9 value to society 9revenues 9 pricing 9 profit

* from Chesbrough, H. and Rosenbloom, R.S., The Role of the Business Model in Capturing Value from Innovation

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Utilities are different „ To succeed for a utility, a business model must serve multiple stakeholders’ interests ‰ the

utility’s owners

Ê IOU shareholders Ê POU citizens/voters Ê Coop members

‰ its

customers

Ê participants Ê non-participants Ê protected groups (low-income, elderly, handicapped)

‰ society,

or the public interest

Ê IOU regulators require it Ê POU officials represent it Ê Coop executives focus it (on members)

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Business models & regulation

Level of Regulation

„ Regulation shapes business models – some more than others Pervasive economic regulation

Investor-owned Investor-owned utility utility

Political imperatives

Membership control

Publicly-owned Publicly-owned utility utility

Cooperative Cooperative utility utility

General law Mom & Pop

Small private business

Large private business

Type of Business

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So . . . what’s a utility business model? „ How the utility will – ‰

create value in the marketplace

‰

profit by capturing a share of that value

‰

sustain the business over time

„ Elements include – ‰

utility roles

‰

others’ roles

‰

economic & financial impacts

‰

regulatory treatment

• buy output • acquire projects • develop projects • own assets • provide services • incentivize others . . . • provide a site • sell &/or install equipment • develop projects • provide maintenance • buy or aggregate output . . . • value streams & magnitudes • cost/benefit allocations • project & aggregate impacts . . .

• ratebase treatment • revenue impacts • incentives . . .

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Evaluating utility solar business models „ ‘Cost-effectiveness’ is the key ‰

costs vs. benefits Ê tangible & intangible both matter Ê ideally quantifiable, but judgment plays a role

‰

one stakeholder’s benefit is often another’s cost Ê must recognize different stakeholder perspectives

‰

utility regulators and managers apply various tests Ê Ê Ê Ê

Participant Cost Test: Is solar worth it to the participating customer? Ratepayer Impact Measure: How will it impact utility earnings or rates? Total Resouce Cost test: What’s the net tangible benefit or cost? Societal Cost Test: Are there other societal costs or benefits, or ‘externalities’?

„ New assessment tools streamline the task Ê see STAC Project discussion, below

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What’s a good utility business model? „ ‘Win/win/win’ is the goal net benefits ≥ net costs for each stakeholder ‰ multiple stakeholders benefit, & none are harmed ‰

„ Win/win/win example: ‰

utility pays a ‘locational credit’ to solar provider (a cost to the utility and a benefit to the provider)

‰

credit is set at a level that makes program participant and other ratepayers better off (both PCT and RIM benefit/cost ratios > 0)

‰

that’s good, but is it a sustainable business model? 10

Can solar build on other work? „ YES: the 2006-07 STAC Incentives Project ‘Creating & Demonstrating Utility Distributed Resource Incentives’

„ Primary sponsors ‰ ‰ ‰

State Technologies Advancement Collaborative (USDOE/NASEO) California Energy Commission Massachusetts Technology Collaborative

„ One of several EPRI-led collaboratives, 2003-on ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

catalogued existing utility incentive programs & business approaches identified important legal & regulatory issues, & program alternatives developed sophisticated spreadsheet tools to assess benefits vs. costs for each key stakeholder group systematically explored ‘win/win/wins’ benefitting all groups defined & tested utility business models for PV & other resources 11

STAC Incentives Project:

Participants „ Government & Research ƒ California Energy Commission „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „

U.S. Dept. of Energy U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Nat’l Assn. of State Energy Offices Mass. Div. of Energy Resources Mass. Technology Collaborative Mass. Dept. of Telecomm & Energy NY State Energy Research & Dev. Auth. New Jersey Board of Public Utilities Electric Power Research Institute

„ Customer Reps ƒ Los Angeles County Sanitation Dist. „ „ „

General Services Administration Democracy and Regulation Energy Consortium

„ Utilities „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „

Southern California Edison Pacific Gas & Electric San Diego Gas & Electric Edison Electric Institute National Grid Northeast Utilities NStar Tennessee Valley Authority

„ Public Interest ƒ Conservation Law Foundation „

Conservation Services Group

„ Vendors/Developers ƒ Solar Turbines „ „ „ „ „ „

Cummins Power Generation Northern Power Systems RealEnergy TurboSteam UTC Power EnerNOC

„ EPRI Project Team ƒ Ellen Petrill, Director „ „ „ „ „

David Thimsen, Project Mgr. John Nimmons & Assoc. Madison Energy Consultants Energy & Environmental Econs. Regulatory Assistance Project 12

STAC Incentives Project:

Issues Addressed „ Are there viable business models for investor-owned utility participation in DER markets? – i.e., approaches that benefit: ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

participating customers non-participating customers the utility and its shareholders society at large

„ Can we quantify their stakeholder impacts – who benefits, who pays, and what drives this? „ What regulatory changes might be needed to support promising business models? „ Can we test these business & regulatory approaches in pilot projects? 13

STAC Incentives Project:

Collaborative Activities 2d stakeholder workshop Recommended state-specific pilot approaches

. . . MA & CA stakeholder discussions to identify viable pilot projects . . .

MA: Customer-owned 2-day stakeholder workshop Recommended two inquiries, with two work groups:

Project Team developed ‘strawman’ business models

. Aug

Work Group activities . . . 1. Customer-owned DER . . . 2. Utility-owned DER . . .

1. Customer-owned 2. Utility-owned

t. Se p

. Oct

. Nov

. Dec

CA: Utility-owned

. Jan

. Feb

Mar

. Apr

.

200

May

7

6 200

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STAC Incentives Project:

Defining a ‘business model’ „ How the utility will – ‰

create value in the marketplace

‰

profit by capturing a share of that value

‰

sustain the business over time

„ Elements include – ‰

utility roles

‰

others’ roles

‰

economic & financial impacts

‰

regulatory treatment

• buy output • acquire projects • develop projects • own assets • provide services • incentivize others . . . • provide a site • sell &/or install equipment • develop projects • provide maintenance • buy or aggregate output . . . • value streams & magnitudes • cost/benefit allocations • project & aggregate impacts . . .

• ratebase treatment • revenue impacts • incentives . . .

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STAC Incentives Project:

Analyzing Costs & Benefits „ Working Groups worked closely with E3 (Energy & Environmental Economics, San Francisco, CA)

„ Previous work identified costs & benefits, including: • • • • • • •

capital cost fuel cost maintenance cost standby charge thermal payment facilities payment efficiency/non-DG eqpmt

• • • • • • •

electric bill savings gas bill savings generation capacity T&D capacity DG electricity purchase wholesale energy grid reliability

• • • • • • •

backup value avoided waste stream reduced emissions fuel cost subsidy REC credit value State incentives Federal incentives

„ Key analytical point: ‰

a benefit to one stakeholder is often a cost to another 16

STAC Incentives Project:

Quantifying Costs & Benefits „ E3 developed 2 modeling tools for this project 1. ‘Single installation’ calculator model shows – Ê who benefits and who pays for various types of DER Ê whether benefits exceed costs for each stakeholder group Ê which benefits and costs drive the outcome

2. ‘Aggregate impact’ calculator model shows the impacts of variable DER penetration levels on – Ê utility revenues or customer bills Ê utility rates

Ê utility net income Ê utility return on equity Ê net societal savings

„ Both allow flexible manipulation of variables, and offer sophisticated screening tools 17

STAC Incentives Project:

Business Cases Considered „ All DER installed on customer premises, but some on the utility side of the meter

„ Customer-owned

(& utility-facilitated)

Combined cooling, heating & power (CCHP) ‰ Commercial rooftop PV ‰

„ Utility-owned

(& provider-allied)

CCHP, on either side of the meter ‰ Biogas, from dairy or other customer operations ‰ Residential rooftop PV ‰

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STAC Incentives Project:

Customer-Owned PV Case „ Commercial PV – base case description ‰

Utility – Ê pays incentive for siting in targeted congestion areas Ê facilitates interconnection Ê manages wholesale market interactions Ê receives any excess electricity (offsetting own generation or wholesale purchase) Ê receives capacity value, but pays for 50% of it Ê foregoes electricity revenues from participant

‰

Participating PV customer – Ê pays PV capital & maintenance Ê reduces purchases of grid electricity (possibly on-peak or shoulder) Ê receives any state installation incentive and REC credits Ê receives federal tax credit

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STAC Incentives Project:

Utility-Owned PV Case „ Residential PV – base case description ‰

Utility – Ê teams with PV provider to market & install systems on customer roofs Ê owns & ratebases PV equipment, & recovers costs from all utility customers Ê provides PV maintenance, & recovers from participating PV customer Ê sells electricity to participating customer at higher ‘green’ rate Ê receives any excess electricity (offsetting own generation or wholesale purchase) Ê receives capacity value, if any Ê receives state installation incentive, if any

‰

Participating PV customer – Ê pays utility for electricity (at green price higher than otherwise applicable tariff) Ê receives REC credits, if any 20

STAC Incentives Project – Results:

CCHP, Customer-Owned (single install)

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STAC Incentives Project – Results:

CCHP, Utility-Owned (single install)

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STAC Incentives Project – Results:

Comm. PV, Customer-Owned (single install)

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STAC Incentives Project – Results:

Residential PV, Utility-Owned (single install)

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STAC Incentives Project – Results:

Residential PV, Utility-Owned (single install) ... with Federal Investment Tax Credit

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STAC Incentives Project – Results:

Aggregate Impacts, All Stakeholders „ Output from ‘single installation’ calculator

feeds into ‘aggregate impact’ calculator „ Aggregate impacts

are shown this way:

(Example: Utility-Owned CCHP Base Case)

From E3’s Aggregate Cost-Effectiveness Tool for clean DG, Utility Model v1d, updated 1/23/07

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Customer-Owned DER Issues „ Customer-owned business cases confront – ‰

neutralizing the ‘revenue loss’ disincentive Ê decoupling revenues from sales (e.g., CA utilities) Ê lost revenue adjustment mechanism (e.g., PSE&G PV filing) Ê not a panacea

• • ‰

utility-wide solution; DER tail wagging the dog? removes one source of utility resistance, but only one

establishing affirmative incentives Ê capacity markets, RECs, etc. (e.g., New England, NJ) Ê tax incentives, rebates, performance payments, etc. (widespread)

‰

creating significant financial value Ê replicability (for other DER) Ê scale (for rooftop solar) 27

Utility-Owned DER Issues „ Utility-owned business cases confront – ‰

Can utilities own ‘generation’? Ê in restructured states, not always clear Ê some treat distributed generation differently

‰

Can they enter & compete in competitive businesses? Ê Ê Ê Ê

‰

if directed by law or regulators to advance favored policies subject to rules to prevent cross-subsidies, preserve competition usually separated from regulated activities and . . . often unsuccessfully

Can they manage customer-premises risk & liability? Ê not altogether new or different; standard tools are available

‰

Will customers who don’t install DER be treated fairly? Ê main concern is ‘cost [burden] shifting’, but policy often permits Ê magnitude matters, & benefits can offset burdens

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How could utility ownership work? „ Through teaming arrangements that – ‰

enable stakeholders to do what each does best, most efficiently, & at least cost

‰

minimize anti-competitive concerns

‰

enlarge the pie for all stakeholders

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Conclusions „ DER business arrangements that benefit multiple stakeholders

without harming others should be encouraged „ New tools are available to assess & allocate costs & benefits „ Where investor-owned utilities can add value & increase

beneficial DER deployment, regulation should encourage that as one option for customers who want it „ Utility-owned DER can reduce customer cost & risk, protect non-

participants, achieve societal goals, & yield economic DER „ Stakeholders increasingly value this approach – if anti-

competitive concerns are addressed & teaming is encouraged „ Stakeholders in California & Massachusetts have identified

potentially viable business models & regulatory approaches „ Our challenge is to apply them to solar, or expand solar horizons 30