Cotton and Products Update Cotton and ... - USDA GAIN reports
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY
Required Report - public distribution Date: GAIN Report Number:
Turkey Cotton and Products Update Cotton and Products Update
Approved By: Jess Paulson, Agriculture Attaché Prepared By: Ibrahim Sirtioglu, Agriculture Marketing Specialist Report Highlights: The MY 2012 Turkish cotton crop is now projected at 400,000 hectares and 600,000 MT (2.7 million bales). High local temperatures, frequent electricity cuts and repeated insect attacks in the GAP region had adverse affects on yields. High domestic production in MY 2011 caused imports to decline to 465,000 MT (2.1million bales), down about thirty-two percent, during the first eleven months compared to a year ago. US exports were about 196,000 MT (0.9 million bales) during the same period. Availability of GSM-102 Credit Guarantee Program played an important role in U.S. exports to Turkey. Total registration reached US $156 million during FY 2012.
Post: Ankara
Commodities: Cotton
Production High temperatures and frequent electricity cuts of irrigation has adversely affected the local cotton crop in the Southeast Anatolian region. Additionally, unlike last year, some bug damage was also reported in the Southeastern region. Accordingly, MY 2012 area and production are now estimated at about 400,000 hectares and 600,000 MT. Available information on planting area and production for MY 2011 indicate higher planting and yield, therefore total production for the year is now estimated at 490,000 hectares and 750,000 MT (3.4 million bales). Consumption MY 2011 domestic cotton consumption is expected to be 1.23 MMT (5.6 million bales). Despite all the bleak economic developments around the world, Turkish textile and garment exporters managed to increase exports in both categories during MY 2011 until the month of June. Higher cotton prices and production costs in China helped Turkish textile exporters to compete against Chinese products in the international markets and prevented declines in textile exports. Experts indicate that economic problems in the main Turkish textile export market, the EU, and political problems in neighboring countries will eventually have an adverse affects on exports and the domestic economy. MY 2012 cotton consumption is now projected to remain about 1.2 MMT (5.5 million bales). The sudden price increases in March 2010 and following drops in the world cotton prices hurt Turkish mills and encouraged them to utilize their own stocks and the abundance of local cotton. This caused local gins and farmers to hold on to their stocks rather than sell to textile mills, creating pressure on local prices. Trade Turkey’s imports of cotton During the first eleven months of MY 2011 Turkey imported 465,292MT (2.1 Million bales), which is a thirty-four percent decline compared to the same period last marketing year and is due to high local production. Although the US was the leading supplier with 195,889 MT (0.9 Million bales) its market share declined from the usual sixty percent to forty-two percent. Rapid fluctuations in the global cotton price during the last two seasons have caused millers to prefer small orders from domestic sources, or from sources near-by, such as Greece. Marketing year-end imports are expected to remain at about 520,000 MT (2.3 million bales) compared to 730,000 MT (3.3Mmillion bales) last year. Cotton imports are expected to increase in MY 2012 to about 620,000 MT (2.8 million bales) due to a projected decrease in domestic production. During MY 2011 USA, Greece and the CIS countries were the traditional suppliers, but Brazil, Argentina and Australia are emerging as new cotton suppliers for Turkey. GSM-102 credit guarantee program continues to play a critical role in US cotton sales to Turkey. During FY 2012 Turkish cotton importers registered US $156 million worth of US cotton under the
program, which represents about twenty-four percent of Turkey’s total use of GSM-102 for the financial year. Turkish cotton exports during the same period were about 35,000 MT, up significantly compared to the last few years due to attractive local prices. 22,000 MT of this cotton went to the Mersin Free Trade Zone, which means that some of this cotton may be imported back in to the country. Turkey also exported about 27,000 MT of cotton for medical use in the same period.
PSD Table Country: Turkey Commodity: Cotton (HECTARES)(MT)
2010 USDA Official [Old] Market Year Begin Area Planted Area Harvested Beginning Stocks Production Imports MY Imp. from U.S. TOTAL SUPPLY Exports USE Dom. Consumption Loss Dom. Consumption TOTAL Dom. Consumption Ending Stocks TOTAL DISTRIBUTION
PSD Table (bales 1000)
320,000 320,000 254,068 460,000 729,428 476,925 1,443,496 8,587
Revised Post Estimate [New] August 2010 320,000 320,000 254,068 460,000 729,428 476,925 1,443,496 8,587
1,220,000
2011 USDA Official [Old]
480,000 480,000 214,909 710,000 480,000 320,000 1,404,909 35,000
Estimate Post Estimate [New] August 2011 490,000 490,000 214,909 750,000 520,000 230,000 1,484,909 35,000
2012 USDA Official [Old]
400,000 400,000 219,909 630,000 600,000 350,000 1,449,909 30,000
Forecast Post Estimate [New] August 2012 400,000 400,000 219,909 600,000 620,000 370,000 1,439,909 30,000
1,220,000
1,150,000
1,230,000
1,200,000
1,200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,220,000 214,909
1,220,000 214,909
1,150,000 219,909
1,230,000 219,909
1,200,000 219,909
1,200,000 209,909
1,443,496
1,443,496
1,404,909
1,484,909
1,449,909
1,439,909
Cotton Turkey
Area Planted Area Harvested Beginning Stocks Production Imports MY Imports from U.S. Total Supply Exports Use Loss Total Dom. Cons. Ending Stocks Total Distribution Stock to Use % Yield
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 USDA New Official Post
Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 USDA New Official Post
Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA New Official Post
0 320 1,928 2,110 3,350 0 7,388 146 5,600 -80 5,520 1,722 7,388 30 1,436
o 320 1,166 2,111 3,348 2,189 6,625 40 5,600 0 5,600 985 6,625 17 1,436
0 480 1,722 3,250 2,300 0 7,272 300 5,300 -80 5,220 1,752 7,272 31 1,474
0 490 985 3,443 2,387 1,056 6,815 160 5,646 0 5,646 1,009 6,815 17 1,530
0 400 1,752 2,750 3,000 0 7,502 200 5,600 -80 5,520 1,782 7,502 31 1,497
0 400 1,009 2,755 2,845 1,700 6,609 137 5,508 0 5,508 964 6,609 17 1,500
Trade Matrix Turkey: Cotton (MT)
August/July U.S. Greece Turkmenistan India Uzbekistan Syria Brazil Egypt Argentina Burkina Faso Tajikistan Australia Mersin FTZ Total of Others Others not listed Grand Total
MY 2010 476,925 87,365 51,250 11,135 16,672 1,988 27,851 5,209 6,186 3,610 21,088 0 0 232,354 20,149 729,428
MY 2011 195,889 80,706 23,176 6,049 6,916 0 72,889 4,547 10,661 0 11,461 8,458 5,585 230,448 38,955 465,292
Turkey: Cotton (Bales)
August/July U.S. Greece Turkmenistan India Uzbekistan Syria Brazil Egypt Argentina Burkina Faso Tajikistan Australia Mersin FTZ Total of Others Others not listed Grand Total
MY 2010 2,147,776 401,005 235,238 51,110 76,524 9,125 127,836 23,909 28,394 16,570 96,794 0 0 1,066,505 92,484 3,348,074
MY 2011 899,130 370,441 106,378 27,765 31,744 0 334,561 20,871 48,934 0 52,606 38,822 25,635 1,057,757 178,803 2,135,690
Required Report - public distribution Date: GAIN Report Number:
Turkey Cotton and Products Update Cotton and Products Update
Approved By: Jess Paulson, Agriculture Attaché Prepared By: Ibrahim Sirtioglu, Agriculture Marketing Specialist Report Highlights: The MY 2012 Turkish cotton crop is now projected at 400,000 hectares and 600,000 MT (2.7 million bales). High local temperatures, frequent electricity cuts and repeated insect attacks in the GAP region had adverse affects on yields. High domestic production in MY 2011 caused imports to decline to 465,000 MT (2.1million bales), down about thirty-two percent, during the first eleven months compared to a year ago. US exports were about 196,000 MT (0.9 million bales) during the same period. Availability of GSM-102 Credit Guarantee Program played an important role in U.S. exports to Turkey. Total registration reached US $156 million during FY 2012.
Post: Ankara
Commodities: Cotton
Production High temperatures and frequent electricity cuts of irrigation has adversely affected the local cotton crop in the Southeast Anatolian region. Additionally, unlike last year, some bug damage was also reported in the Southeastern region. Accordingly, MY 2012 area and production are now estimated at about 400,000 hectares and 600,000 MT. Available information on planting area and production for MY 2011 indicate higher planting and yield, therefore total production for the year is now estimated at 490,000 hectares and 750,000 MT (3.4 million bales). Consumption MY 2011 domestic cotton consumption is expected to be 1.23 MMT (5.6 million bales). Despite all the bleak economic developments around the world, Turkish textile and garment exporters managed to increase exports in both categories during MY 2011 until the month of June. Higher cotton prices and production costs in China helped Turkish textile exporters to compete against Chinese products in the international markets and prevented declines in textile exports. Experts indicate that economic problems in the main Turkish textile export market, the EU, and political problems in neighboring countries will eventually have an adverse affects on exports and the domestic economy. MY 2012 cotton consumption is now projected to remain about 1.2 MMT (5.5 million bales). The sudden price increases in March 2010 and following drops in the world cotton prices hurt Turkish mills and encouraged them to utilize their own stocks and the abundance of local cotton. This caused local gins and farmers to hold on to their stocks rather than sell to textile mills, creating pressure on local prices. Trade Turkey’s imports of cotton During the first eleven months of MY 2011 Turkey imported 465,292MT (2.1 Million bales), which is a thirty-four percent decline compared to the same period last marketing year and is due to high local production. Although the US was the leading supplier with 195,889 MT (0.9 Million bales) its market share declined from the usual sixty percent to forty-two percent. Rapid fluctuations in the global cotton price during the last two seasons have caused millers to prefer small orders from domestic sources, or from sources near-by, such as Greece. Marketing year-end imports are expected to remain at about 520,000 MT (2.3 million bales) compared to 730,000 MT (3.3Mmillion bales) last year. Cotton imports are expected to increase in MY 2012 to about 620,000 MT (2.8 million bales) due to a projected decrease in domestic production. During MY 2011 USA, Greece and the CIS countries were the traditional suppliers, but Brazil, Argentina and Australia are emerging as new cotton suppliers for Turkey. GSM-102 credit guarantee program continues to play a critical role in US cotton sales to Turkey. During FY 2012 Turkish cotton importers registered US $156 million worth of US cotton under the
program, which represents about twenty-four percent of Turkey’s total use of GSM-102 for the financial year. Turkish cotton exports during the same period were about 35,000 MT, up significantly compared to the last few years due to attractive local prices. 22,000 MT of this cotton went to the Mersin Free Trade Zone, which means that some of this cotton may be imported back in to the country. Turkey also exported about 27,000 MT of cotton for medical use in the same period.
PSD Table Country: Turkey Commodity: Cotton (HECTARES)(MT)
2010 USDA Official [Old] Market Year Begin Area Planted Area Harvested Beginning Stocks Production Imports MY Imp. from U.S. TOTAL SUPPLY Exports USE Dom. Consumption Loss Dom. Consumption TOTAL Dom. Consumption Ending Stocks TOTAL DISTRIBUTION
PSD Table (bales 1000)
320,000 320,000 254,068 460,000 729,428 476,925 1,443,496 8,587
Revised Post Estimate [New] August 2010 320,000 320,000 254,068 460,000 729,428 476,925 1,443,496 8,587
1,220,000
2011 USDA Official [Old]
480,000 480,000 214,909 710,000 480,000 320,000 1,404,909 35,000
Estimate Post Estimate [New] August 2011 490,000 490,000 214,909 750,000 520,000 230,000 1,484,909 35,000
2012 USDA Official [Old]
400,000 400,000 219,909 630,000 600,000 350,000 1,449,909 30,000
Forecast Post Estimate [New] August 2012 400,000 400,000 219,909 600,000 620,000 370,000 1,439,909 30,000
1,220,000
1,150,000
1,230,000
1,200,000
1,200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,220,000 214,909
1,220,000 214,909
1,150,000 219,909
1,230,000 219,909
1,200,000 219,909
1,200,000 209,909
1,443,496
1,443,496
1,404,909
1,484,909
1,449,909
1,439,909
Cotton Turkey
Area Planted Area Harvested Beginning Stocks Production Imports MY Imports from U.S. Total Supply Exports Use Loss Total Dom. Cons. Ending Stocks Total Distribution Stock to Use % Yield
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 USDA New Official Post
Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 USDA New Official Post
Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA New Official Post
0 320 1,928 2,110 3,350 0 7,388 146 5,600 -80 5,520 1,722 7,388 30 1,436
o 320 1,166 2,111 3,348 2,189 6,625 40 5,600 0 5,600 985 6,625 17 1,436
0 480 1,722 3,250 2,300 0 7,272 300 5,300 -80 5,220 1,752 7,272 31 1,474
0 490 985 3,443 2,387 1,056 6,815 160 5,646 0 5,646 1,009 6,815 17 1,530
0 400 1,752 2,750 3,000 0 7,502 200 5,600 -80 5,520 1,782 7,502 31 1,497
0 400 1,009 2,755 2,845 1,700 6,609 137 5,508 0 5,508 964 6,609 17 1,500
Trade Matrix Turkey: Cotton (MT)
August/July U.S. Greece Turkmenistan India Uzbekistan Syria Brazil Egypt Argentina Burkina Faso Tajikistan Australia Mersin FTZ Total of Others Others not listed Grand Total
MY 2010 476,925 87,365 51,250 11,135 16,672 1,988 27,851 5,209 6,186 3,610 21,088 0 0 232,354 20,149 729,428
MY 2011 195,889 80,706 23,176 6,049 6,916 0 72,889 4,547 10,661 0 11,461 8,458 5,585 230,448 38,955 465,292
Turkey: Cotton (Bales)
August/July U.S. Greece Turkmenistan India Uzbekistan Syria Brazil Egypt Argentina Burkina Faso Tajikistan Australia Mersin FTZ Total of Others Others not listed Grand Total
MY 2010 2,147,776 401,005 235,238 51,110 76,524 9,125 127,836 23,909 28,394 16,570 96,794 0 0 1,066,505 92,484 3,348,074
MY 2011 899,130 370,441 106,378 27,765 31,744 0 334,561 20,871 48,934 0 52,606 38,822 25,635 1,057,757 178,803 2,135,690
