Cotton production trends and sustainability 2010
Cotton production trends and sustainability 2010 Simon Ferrigno Consultant Sustainable & Organic Farm Systems RITE Conference 2010 Westminster Central Hall, October 6 2010
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton fibre: facts 100 million farmers and 250 million jobs 80 countries 33 million hectares 36.5% of textiles market 2.5% arable land US$ 37 Billion Simon Ferrigno
Evolution of global cotton production since 1950/51 Cotton production volume for selected 10 year intervals 1951-2011 30.00
25.00
Million Metric Tonnes
20.00
Volume
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00 50/51
60/61
70/71
80/81
90/91
00/01
10/11
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton: current position Production: 22.08 Million MT lint in 2009/10 Consumption: 24.30 Million MT Projection for production 2010/11: 24.90 Million MT Marginal rise in stocks 2010/11 Simon Ferrigno
Cotton production and future projections 2007/08 to 2011/12 Cotton production and projections 07/08 to 11/12 30
In Million Metric Tonnes
25
20 2007/08 2008/9 2009/10
15
2010/11 2011/12 10
5
0 Global
China
India
USA
Pakistan
Brazil
Uzbekistan
Others
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton prices Cotlook A prices 1970-2009 100 90 80 70
Prices
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Date: 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Years
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton Prices Cotlook A prices 1970-2009 ranked from highest to lowest 100 90 80 70
Prices
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1983 1979 1989 1996 1982 1978 2007 1997 1984 1988 1977 1991 2006 1998 2000 1999 2004 1972 1971 Date: 1994 1995 1990 1976 2009 1973 1981 1987 1993 2003 1975 2008 1986 2002 1992 2005 1974 1985 2001 1970
Years
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton subsidies Subsidies have declined in past year but remain at an average US$ 0.13 per pound, US$ 3.5 Billion in total 52% of world cotton is subsidised China paid highest subsidies in 2009/10 ahead of the USA Highest subsidies per unit are in Spain (US$ 1.96) and Greece (US$ 0.55) Simon Ferrigno
Cotton subsidies Direct assistance subsidies past two seasons 3,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
China USA Greece
In US $
2,000,000,000
Turkey Brazil Spain
1,500,000,000
Colombia India Pakistan
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
0 2008/2009
2009/2010
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton production costs Production costs are rising Sample cost of production for irrigated cotton
1 0.9 0.8 0.7
In US $
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
Direct costs of seed cotton production are US$ 0.43 irrigation
Yields are stagnating and inputs such as fertilizers are increasing in costs
Weed control Fertilizer
Insecticides seed planting
Rain-fed cotton is cheaper to grow than irrigated cotton
0
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton sustainability trends Trends Some in insecticides indicators for usecotton: 1990s 2010 to present 25.00% 16.00%
14.00% 20.00%
Percent Percentage of global use
12.00%
10.00% 15.00% 8.00% 10.00% 6.00%
4.00% 5.00% 2.00%
1990s to present
0.00% 1
Water use
2Land area
Pesticides3
Insecticides
Simon Ferrigno
4
Intermission It probably feels sometimes like CSR people, NGOs and activists are doing this to you....
Simon Ferrigno
Sustainable Cotton Choices 700,000
600,000
Volume in Metric Tonnes
500,000
400,000
Sustainable in 2009 Improving cotton iscotton a matter of investing in the system as well as choosing the right system
Verifiable/transparent systems (e.g., organic) as well as training/growing systems such as IPM
Better Cotton CmiA O/FT
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
FT
Organic
Organic, Fairtrade, Fairtrade/Organic, Better Cotton, Cotton Made in Africa, Basic Program are some recognised options Hectares
Farmers
Volume
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton: what influences production & sustainability trends? Targeted investment in system and farmer support, not just technology Prices and costs of inputs Consumer and industry demand Limitations of land and water Natural advantages of a given region in soil, climate, rainfall, etc. Simon Ferrigno
Cotton Progress has been made Much remains to be done New challenges are ahead
Simon Ferrigno
Thank you!
Simon Ferrigno
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton fibre: facts 100 million farmers and 250 million jobs 80 countries 33 million hectares 36.5% of textiles market 2.5% arable land US$ 37 Billion Simon Ferrigno
Evolution of global cotton production since 1950/51 Cotton production volume for selected 10 year intervals 1951-2011 30.00
25.00
Million Metric Tonnes
20.00
Volume
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00 50/51
60/61
70/71
80/81
90/91
00/01
10/11
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton: current position Production: 22.08 Million MT lint in 2009/10 Consumption: 24.30 Million MT Projection for production 2010/11: 24.90 Million MT Marginal rise in stocks 2010/11 Simon Ferrigno
Cotton production and future projections 2007/08 to 2011/12 Cotton production and projections 07/08 to 11/12 30
In Million Metric Tonnes
25
20 2007/08 2008/9 2009/10
15
2010/11 2011/12 10
5
0 Global
China
India
USA
Pakistan
Brazil
Uzbekistan
Others
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton prices Cotlook A prices 1970-2009 100 90 80 70
Prices
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Date: 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Years
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton Prices Cotlook A prices 1970-2009 ranked from highest to lowest 100 90 80 70
Prices
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1983 1979 1989 1996 1982 1978 2007 1997 1984 1988 1977 1991 2006 1998 2000 1999 2004 1972 1971 Date: 1994 1995 1990 1976 2009 1973 1981 1987 1993 2003 1975 2008 1986 2002 1992 2005 1974 1985 2001 1970
Years
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton subsidies Subsidies have declined in past year but remain at an average US$ 0.13 per pound, US$ 3.5 Billion in total 52% of world cotton is subsidised China paid highest subsidies in 2009/10 ahead of the USA Highest subsidies per unit are in Spain (US$ 1.96) and Greece (US$ 0.55) Simon Ferrigno
Cotton subsidies Direct assistance subsidies past two seasons 3,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
China USA Greece
In US $
2,000,000,000
Turkey Brazil Spain
1,500,000,000
Colombia India Pakistan
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
0 2008/2009
2009/2010
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton production costs Production costs are rising Sample cost of production for irrigated cotton
1 0.9 0.8 0.7
In US $
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
Direct costs of seed cotton production are US$ 0.43 irrigation
Yields are stagnating and inputs such as fertilizers are increasing in costs
Weed control Fertilizer
Insecticides seed planting
Rain-fed cotton is cheaper to grow than irrigated cotton
0
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton sustainability trends Trends Some in insecticides indicators for usecotton: 1990s 2010 to present 25.00% 16.00%
14.00% 20.00%
Percent Percentage of global use
12.00%
10.00% 15.00% 8.00% 10.00% 6.00%
4.00% 5.00% 2.00%
1990s to present
0.00% 1
Water use
2Land area
Pesticides3
Insecticides
Simon Ferrigno
4
Intermission It probably feels sometimes like CSR people, NGOs and activists are doing this to you....
Simon Ferrigno
Sustainable Cotton Choices 700,000
600,000
Volume in Metric Tonnes
500,000
400,000
Sustainable in 2009 Improving cotton iscotton a matter of investing in the system as well as choosing the right system
Verifiable/transparent systems (e.g., organic) as well as training/growing systems such as IPM
Better Cotton CmiA O/FT
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
FT
Organic
Organic, Fairtrade, Fairtrade/Organic, Better Cotton, Cotton Made in Africa, Basic Program are some recognised options Hectares
Farmers
Volume
Simon Ferrigno
Cotton: what influences production & sustainability trends? Targeted investment in system and farmer support, not just technology Prices and costs of inputs Consumer and industry demand Limitations of land and water Natural advantages of a given region in soil, climate, rainfall, etc. Simon Ferrigno
Cotton Progress has been made Much remains to be done New challenges are ahead
Simon Ferrigno
Thank you!
Simon Ferrigno
