CropCast® Corn and Soybean Report

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CropCast Corn and Soybean Report

Kenny Miller | Tuesday, March 14, 2017

®

10 Day Forecast for Peoria, Illinois

Peoria, IL Regional Forecast Discussion Skies should be mostly sunny across the region through Thursday afternoon before showers move in late Thursday and during the day on Friday. Sunny skies will return this weekend before a slight chance of rain again next Monday. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s today before warming into the low 30s on Wednesday and the low 40s on Thursday. Readings will spike into the mid 50s on Friday before cooling slightly on Saturday. Lows Tuesday night through Thursday night will be in the mid to upper 10s, with lows expected in the mid to upper 30s Friday and Saturday.

Day

Date

M ax Temp (°F)

M in Temp (°F)

Daily A vg Humidity

P recipitatio n (inches)

Tuesday

14-Mar-2017

27

16

84%

0.00

Wednesday

15-Mar-2017

31

14

81%

0.00

Thursday

16-Mar-2017

42

19

85%

0.03

Friday

17-Mar-2017

54

38

92%

0.10

Saturday

18-Mar-2017

50

32

80%

0.00

Sunday

19-Mar-2017

53

30

73%

0.00

Monday

20-Mar-2017

64

39

90%

0.09

Tuesday

21-Mar-2017

55

37

70%

0.14

Wednesday

22-Mar-2017

53

33

59%

0.41

Thursday

23-Mar-2017

50

34

67%

0.37

Today's Wind Direction/Speed Local Direction Speed Time From (mph)

7 Day Hourly Forecast for Peoria, Illinois 0.9

80

0.8

70

0.7

60

0.6

50

0.5

40

0.4

30

0.3

20

0.2

10

0.1

0

14-Mar

15-Mar

16-Mar

Precipitation

17-Mar

18-Mar

Temperature

19-Mar

20-Mar

Wind Speed

Accumulated Precipitation since March 1 for Peoria, IL

0

Precipitation (inches)

1

90

6:00 AM

N

9

7:00 AM

N

10

8:00 AM

N

10

9:00 AM

N

11

10:00 AM

N

11

11:00 AM

N

11

12:00 PM

N

11

1:00 PM

N

11

2:00 PM

N

11

3:00 PM

N

11

4:00 PM

N

11

5:00 PM

N

10

6:00 PM

N

9

7:00 PM

N

8

8:00 PM

N

7

9:00 PM

N

7

10:00 PM

NNW

6

11:00 PM

NNW

6

Accumulated Growing Degree Days (Base 50 F) since March 1 for Peoria, IL

3.5

140

3.0

120

Accumulated GDDs

Accumulated Rainfall (inches)

Temperature (°F)/Wind Speed (mph)

100

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5

100 80 60 40 20

0.0

0 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/11 3/13 3/15 3/17 3/19 3/21 3/23 3/25 3/27

3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/11 3/13 3/15 3/17 3/19 3/21 3/23 3/25 3/27

2017 Actuals

MDA 15 Day Forecast

2017 Actuals

MDA 15 Day Forecast

30 Year Normal

2016 Actuals

30 Year Normal

2016 Actuals

Page 1 MDA Information Systems LLC ©2016 | 820 W Diamond Ave, Suite 300, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 Tel 240-833-8300 Fax 240-833-8301 | www.mdaus.com | [cornsoy_midwest.pdf—Version 1.0]

CropCast Corn and Soybean Report

Kenny Miller | Tuesday, March 14, 2017

®

Total Precipitation Yesterday

Total Precipitation Past 7 Days

MDA Precipitation Forecast Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Friday, March 17, 2017

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Total Precipitation Next 5 Days

1-5 Day Precip Compared to Average

6-10 Day Precip Compared to Average

11-15 Day Precip Compared to Average

Page 2 MDA Information Systems LLC ©2016 | 820 W Diamond Ave, Suite 300, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 Tel 240-833-8300 Fax 240-833-8301 | www.mdaus.com | [cornsoy_midwest.pdf—Version 1.0]

CropCast Corn and Soybean Report

Kenny Miller | Tuesday, March 14, 2017

®

Maximum Temperature Yesterday

Temp Compared to Average- Past 7 Days

MDA Maximum Temperature Forecast Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Friday, March 17, 2017

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Average Maximum Temp Next 5 Days

1-5 Day Temp Compared to Average

6-10 Day Temp Compared to Average

11-15 Day Temp Compared to Average

Page 3 MDA Information Systems LLC ©2016 | 820 W Diamond Ave, Suite 300, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 Tel 240-833-8300 Fax 240-833-8301 | www.mdaus.com | [cornsoy_midwest.pdf—Version 1.0]

CropCast Corn and Soybean Report

Kenny Miller | Tuesday, March 14, 2017

®

Minimum Temperature Yesterday

Temp Compared to Average- Past 7 Days

MDA Minimum Temperature Forecast Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Friday, March 17, 2017

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Average Average Minimum Minimum Temp Temp Next Next 5 5 Days Days

1-5 Day Temp Compared to Average

6-10 Day Temp Compared to Average

11-15 Day Temp Compared to Average

Page 4 MDA Information Systems LLC ©2016 | 820 W Diamond Ave, Suite 300, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 Tel 240-833-8300 Fax 240-833-8301 | www.mdaus.com | [cornsoy_midwest.pdf—Version 1.0]

CropCast Corn and Soybean Report

Kenny Miller | Tuesday, March 14, 2017

®

6-10 6-10 6-10Day Day DayForecast: Forecast: Forecast:Wed Sat TueMar Mar18 14 15---Wed Sat SunMar Mar18 22 19 Sun Mar 19 Thu Mar 23

Wetter Drier northern Drier Midwest, eastern Plains, northeast Midwest western Plains Midwest Wetter eastern Midwest, northern Delta

MDA 6-10 Day Temperature Forecast

MDA 6-10 Day Precipitation Forecast

Previous Forecast

Previous Forecast

Model Preference: ECM Ensemble

CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is wetter in the central and eastern Midwest, south central Plains, and northern Delta. Temperatures are unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Showers in the east central Plains, Midwest, and Delta would improve moisture for wheat. However, moisture will likely remain a bit limited in the southwestern Plains. Mild temperatures across the Plains and western Midwest will keep winterkill threats very low. RISKS: There is a drier risk in the northwest Midwest and northern Plains. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM Ensemble

11-15 11-15 Day Forecast: Sun Mon Mar Mar24 23 19 20--Tue Mon -Thu Fri Mar Mar Mar28 24 23 27 11-15Day DayForecast: Forecast:Thu Fri Mar

Slightly Slightly Wetter drier drier southern Plains Delta Plains Wetter southern Plains

MDA 11-15 Day Temperature Forecast

MDA 11-15 Day Precipitation Forecast

Model Preference:

Previous Forecast

Previous Forecast

ECM Ensemble

CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is slightly wetter in the southern Plains. Temperatures are cooler in all areas. CROP IMPACT: Additional showers in the Midwest, Delta, and central Plains would further improve moisture for wheat. Cooler temperatures should not result in any notable threats to wheat. RISKS: There is a drier risk in the southwestern Plains and northeastern Midwest. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble

Page 5 MDA Information Systems LLC ©2016 | 820 W Diamond Ave, Suite 300, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 Tel 240-833-8300 Fax 240-833-8301 | www.mdaus.com | [cornsoy_midwest.pdf—Version 1.0]

CropCast Corn and Soybean Report

Kenny Miller | Tuesday, March 14, 2017

®

Past 45 Days Precipitation Percent of 30 Year Average

Past 45 Days Temp Departure Compared to 30 Year Average

The chart below shows how accumulated precipitation since April 1 compares to benchmark weather years in the Peoria area. Benchmark unfavorable weather year: 2012 (IL corn yield 37% below trend, IL soybean yield 12% below trend) Benchmark favorable weather year: 2014 (IL corn yield 18% above trend, IL soybean yield 12% above trend)

The maps below track crop progress across the U.S. for the corn and soybean crops based on weekly data from the USDA crop progress report. These maps are updated each Tuesday, showing data from the previous Sunday. The colors on the map indicate county-level production levels for each crop. Corn harvesting is now 97% complete nationally, slightly ahead of the 5 year average of 96%, and matching the harvest pace from last year at this time. The only major corn producing state with less than 90% of the harvest complete is Michigan, where 83% of the corn crop had been harvested as of Sunday. There is also still at least 5% of the corn harvest left to complete across North Dakota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. None of these areas are running significantly behind the 5 year average, however. Snow in the far northern Midwest over the next couple of days may slow remaining corn harvesting, but drier weather later this week should allow the harvest to near completion in most areas. Soybean harvesting has finished up in most areas.

Accumulated Precipitation for Peoria, IL Compared to Benchmark Weather Years 4.0

3.5

Accumulated Precip (in.)

3.0

2.5 2.0 1.5

1.0 0.5

0.0 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/113/133/153/173/193/213/233/253/27

2017 Actuals MDA 15 Day Forecast 30 Year Normal 2014: Benchmark Favorable Year 2012: Benchmark Unfavorable Year

Page 6 MDA Information Systems LLC ©2016 | 820 W Diamond Ave, Suite 300, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 Tel 240-833-8300 Fax 240-833-8301 | www.mdaus.com | [cornsoy_midwest.pdf—Version 1.0]

CropCast Corn and Soybean Report

Kenny Miller | Tuesday, March 14, 2017

®

Global Ag Highlights Vegetative Health Index (VHI) is derived by satellite and is used to help determine whether crops are under stress and can also be used to estimate crop yields. The maps below show the Vegetative Health Index for major growing areas around the world relative to a 30 year average. Values less than zero represent below normal VHI, while values above zero represent above normal VHI. This imagery is updated on a weekly basis. Most recent update: Mar 4, 2017 -20

-15

-10

-5

+5

+10

+15

+20

Below Normal Above Normal Desert Snow/Ice or Missing Data Regional Crop Weather Discussions

Regional Vegetative Health Imagery

Midwest PAST 24 HOURS: Light snow favored southeastern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Michigan yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should return to the region Friday and Saturday. The showers will likely mix with snow in northeastern areas. CROP IMPACT: Snow across the region will likely melt a bit later in the week, and this combined with additional showers late week and early in the 6-10 day period should further improve moisture for wheat. Temperatures are rather cold in the region, but no notable winterkill is occurring. Readings should moderate later this week and in the 6-10 day period.

Brazil PAST 24 HOURS: A few showers favored central Sao Paulo, central Mato Grosso do Sul, and central Mato Grosso yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains should build across Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, western Goias, southern Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul through Saturday. 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Limited rains in northern areas recently have favored soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting. More notable showers there this week will slow fieldwork, but should improve moisture for safrinha corn growth. Showers in southern areas recently maintained favorable moisture for late crop growth.

Argentina PAST 24 HOURS: Dry weather prevailed yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Light showers should return to Cordoba, Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and southern Buenos Aires Wednesday and Thursday. Dry weather should prevail otherwise through Saturday. 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in northern areas. CROP IMPACT: Drier weather recently allowed wetness to ease a bit in northeastern areas. Showers in northern areas mid week should maintain moisture for late crop growth.

Other Major Crop Areas South Africa:

Forecast is unchanged; drier trends will allow moisture to decline in favor of corn drydown.

Black Sea:

Forecast is unchanged; warm weather will further melt snow cover and soil moisture will decline further. Page 7 MDA Information Systems LLC ©2016 | 820 W Diamond Ave, Suite 300, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 Tel 240-833-8300 Fax 240-833-8301 | www.mdaus.com | [cornsoy_midwest.pdf—Version 1.0]

CropCast Corn and Soybean Report

Kenny Miller | Tuesday, March 14, 2017

®

North America Long Range Forecast Percent of Average Precipitation over the Past 30 Days

Similar El Niño/La Niña Years: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

The forecasts on this page are updated monthly.

1957 1990 1963 1961 1972

Last Update: Mar 9, 2017 April Temperature Forecast

May Temperature Forecast

June Temperature Forecast

April Precipitation Forecast

May Precipitation Forecast

June Precipitation Forecast

APRIL CROP PHASES

MAY CROP PHASES

JUNE CROP PHASES

 Corn Planting

 Corn Planting/Germination

 Corn Vegetative Growth

 Early Soybean Planting

 Soybean Planting/Germination

 Soybean Vegetative Growth

 Winter Wheat Jointing/Heading

 Winter Wheat Heading

 Winter Wheat Harvesting

   

Long Range Potential Crop Impacts Warm and drier conditions in the Delta and Southeast in April will favor corn and soybean planting, but will lower moisture for germination Wetter conditions in the Plains in May will favor heading winter wheat and spring wheat germination Dryness will likely persist across the Delta through June, stressing corn and soybean growth An upturn in showers in the Prairies by June will improve moisture for spring wheat

Page 8 MDA Information Systems LLC ©2016 | 820 W Diamond Ave, Suite 300, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 Tel 240-833-8300 Fax 240-833-8301 | www.mdaus.com | [cornsoy_midwest.pdf—Version 1.0]