CSIRO Public Events in the Canberra Region
THE CANBERRA TIMES SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2009
FORUM 5
VIRGINIA HAUSSEGGER – A paedophile like Ferguson, who presents as a grubby, uneducated simpleton, is hated. But a paedophile like revered artist Donald Friend, whose highly acclaimed work hangs in galleries around Australia, is not. Page 20
managers, according to Peter Lewis, the director of Essential Research, which produces a weekly poll of more than 1000 people. The Liberals usually enjoy a considerable advantage in that area. ‘‘If [Rudd] can maintain parity with the Liberals on who’s better at managing the economy even as interest rates slowly go up, then he’s on really solid ground,’’ Lewis says. ‘‘If you start to see the Liberals . . . get an advantage on economic management, it would give them something to run the debt argument on over the next 12 months. But at the moment, they don’t have that.’’ Lewis points out border protection is low on the list when voters are asked to rank issues based on importance. Respondents rated protecting the quality of the health system, managing the economy and ensuring a quality education for all children as the top three issues taken into account when deciding how to vote. In descending order, the others are: ensuring a quality water supply; jobs and protection of local industries; ensuring a fair taxation system; protecting the environment; a fair industrial relations system; housing affordability; interest rates; political leadership; climate change; and the war on terrorism and security. Lewis says polls have picked up some voter dissatisfaction with the Government’s handling of the asylum seeker issue. ‘‘On one level, you’ve got people saying they want a tough stand but also people marking Rudd’s position down,’’ Lewis says. ‘‘At the same time, people also saying they don’t think the Opposition would do a better job. I just think it’s really a little bit murky at the moment, what it all means.’’ There has been a sharp focus on border protection issues after a series of boats carrying asylum seekers have been intercepted en route to Australia. This week one boat sank more than 600km north-west of Cocos Island. It is understood that 39 people were on board – 27 have been rescued but up to five are dead. Meanwhile, 78 asylum seekers have now spent almost two weeks on the Oceanic Viking – the Australian Customs vessel moored off Indonesia. They are refusing to disembark and move into the Tanjung Pinang Detention Centre on the island of Bintan. Robinson says Labor struggles with immigration policies. ‘‘Opinion, I think, on the conservative side of politics is pretty strongly for a fairly hard line on the immigration issue. I think Labor has that problem that a lot of Labor’s base and Labor’s active supporters are sympathetic to a more soft or tolerant line, and I think the Labor Party suffers more internal agony about this issue,’’ Robinson says. The issue is causing ‘‘some problems’’ for the Government, eroding their support from the left. ‘‘The immigration issue comes and goes,’’ Robinson says. ‘‘But it’s worthwhile keeping in mind, for example, that public opinion about immigration levels overall mostly seems to be driven by the level of unemployment. If unemployment is coming down and the economic recovery is well underway by the time of the next election, that, in a sense, I think is going to make immigration even less of an election issue than it would be.’’ Hughes believes voters are reacting to Rudd’s confusing message – that he is tough on people smuggling but humane in dealing with asylum seekers. ‘‘I think the marketplace would respect him a lot more and stick with his brand a lot more if he was clear one way or another,’’ Hughes says. ‘‘We need to see Kevin Rudd PM now. Voters are saying, ‘We need to know that you’re not just about cool, funky things and promising bucketloads of change, but also that you can manage the economy, that you can manage the Government and that you can look after our interests and needs’.’’ If Rudd can’t resolve a stand-off with the asylum seekers on the Oceanic Viking, Hughes believes voters will begin to question whether the Prime Minister can deal with bigger issues, such as the ‘‘mess’’ in the economy and ‘‘mess’’ with the emissions trading scheme designed to tackle climate change – one of the Government’s
biggest challenges, according to Day, who believes Rudd is ‘‘shirking’’ making tough decisions. ‘‘If climate change is serious, you can’t be half-hearted in tackling it. ‘‘I think in Australia . . . it actually opens up tremendous opportunities and we’re just not grasping them,’’ he says. But Day warns against drawing conclusions from one bad poll for Rudd. ‘‘It would be very ill-advised to take one poll as an end of Australians’ attachment to Kevin Rudd or the Labor Party, particularly as his own personal rating hasn’t really been affected,’’ Day says. In the latest Newspoll, almost 60 per cent of voters were satisfied with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s performance, compared with 63 per cent two weeks ago. About one in three was disappointed with his performance – up four points. Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s rating remained stable, with only 32 per cent of voters satisfied with his performance. About half of the voters surveyed are dissatisfied with Turnbull compared with 54 per cent two weeks ago. Robinson believes the Government has lost some support but that the latest poll exaggerates the size of the shift in public opinion. ‘‘I think the Rudd honeymoon has gone through various phases,’’ Robinson says. ‘‘I think it’s interesting that initially perhaps there was this prolonged period of very strong approval for Kevin Rudd, then that seemed to undergo something of a decline, perhaps, with the economic crisis and people with anxiety about the future. ‘‘Then there seemed to be this drift back towards the Government as well. So perhaps he’s been to a first honeymoon then a second honeymoon but maybe this second honeymoon is starting to run out a bit of steam.’’ Robinson thinks the Government is still in a ‘‘strong position’’ and a ‘‘strong favourite’’ to win the next election, potentially with an increased margin after favourable electoral redistributions. Lewis says their polls haven’t picked up any change in support on a two-party-preferred basis. ‘‘You wouldn’t want to call the honeymoon over yet. You wouldn’t want to say the marriage is going stale yet. There’s a little way to run,’’ according to Lewis who believes the Newspoll has picked up a ‘‘blip’’. Hughes says the result is a warning signal for Rudd. ‘‘The market is saying, ‘Look you’re not really looking after us as much as you used to. What’s going on? We used to think you were cool and trendy and we loved you and we had this relationship with you’,’’ Hughes says. Rudd must learn lessons from former prime minister John Howard, who was ‘‘like the Corolla’’ of federal politics – a master of rebranding. ‘‘[Rudd’s] got to . . . refresh the brand. You can’t rebuild it. It’s too late. He is the brand so you can’t suddenly come out with a new look and dye your hair purple or something.’’ Voters are ‘‘disheartened with the brand they like’’ and the only alternative is Turnbull, who is ‘‘not strong’’ – luckily for Rudd. ‘‘But the honeymoon is well over. When Kevin Rudd was elected, I would have thought he was a three-term prime minister but I think he’ll struggle for third. I don’t think he might make the third term. I think maybe two terms is all he’s going to have as prime minister,’’ Hughes says. Successful prime ministers – such as John Curtin, Ben Chifley and Andrew Fisher – have one thing in common, according to Day. They were all ‘‘very good at sketching out narrative’’. ‘‘People pretty much understood where they were being taken, where they were being led. There was a real sense of leadership,’’ Day says. ‘‘I think Mr Rudd has had a lot of distractions over the last year or so. ‘‘And I think whether he’ll be a great prime minister or not will be judged partly on whether he can sort of sketch out that narrative, and it’s a narrative that people can believe in and that deals with the big issues in a reasonable way.
Distractions: Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan have been preoccupied by economic concerns. Photo: GLEN McCURTAYNE.
‘‘But trying to hold on to our attachment to coal and all the rest of it at a time when we are confronting climate change seems to be very, very wrong.’’
Danielle Cronin is Political Correspondent for The Canberra Times.
CSIRO invites you to two free public forums as part of the symposium
CSIRO invites you to the following free Biosecurity in the new Bioeconomy: threats and opportunities public events around Canberra next week Weedy biofuels: should we be worried? Facilitator: Mr Tim Low, Invasive Species Council Thursday 19 November 4.00pm New Crops: New Pests? Facilitator: Prof Alison Stewart, Bioprotection NZ Friday 20 November 4.00pm Venue:The Shine Dome, Gordon Street, Canberra
CSIRO Public Events in the Canberra Region VISIT WWW.CSIRO.AU/ACTSEMINARS FOR VENUE DETAILS Bookings essential. Book online at www.csiro.au/events/ACT -seminars.html
FORUM 5
VIRGINIA HAUSSEGGER – A paedophile like Ferguson, who presents as a grubby, uneducated simpleton, is hated. But a paedophile like revered artist Donald Friend, whose highly acclaimed work hangs in galleries around Australia, is not. Page 20
managers, according to Peter Lewis, the director of Essential Research, which produces a weekly poll of more than 1000 people. The Liberals usually enjoy a considerable advantage in that area. ‘‘If [Rudd] can maintain parity with the Liberals on who’s better at managing the economy even as interest rates slowly go up, then he’s on really solid ground,’’ Lewis says. ‘‘If you start to see the Liberals . . . get an advantage on economic management, it would give them something to run the debt argument on over the next 12 months. But at the moment, they don’t have that.’’ Lewis points out border protection is low on the list when voters are asked to rank issues based on importance. Respondents rated protecting the quality of the health system, managing the economy and ensuring a quality education for all children as the top three issues taken into account when deciding how to vote. In descending order, the others are: ensuring a quality water supply; jobs and protection of local industries; ensuring a fair taxation system; protecting the environment; a fair industrial relations system; housing affordability; interest rates; political leadership; climate change; and the war on terrorism and security. Lewis says polls have picked up some voter dissatisfaction with the Government’s handling of the asylum seeker issue. ‘‘On one level, you’ve got people saying they want a tough stand but also people marking Rudd’s position down,’’ Lewis says. ‘‘At the same time, people also saying they don’t think the Opposition would do a better job. I just think it’s really a little bit murky at the moment, what it all means.’’ There has been a sharp focus on border protection issues after a series of boats carrying asylum seekers have been intercepted en route to Australia. This week one boat sank more than 600km north-west of Cocos Island. It is understood that 39 people were on board – 27 have been rescued but up to five are dead. Meanwhile, 78 asylum seekers have now spent almost two weeks on the Oceanic Viking – the Australian Customs vessel moored off Indonesia. They are refusing to disembark and move into the Tanjung Pinang Detention Centre on the island of Bintan. Robinson says Labor struggles with immigration policies. ‘‘Opinion, I think, on the conservative side of politics is pretty strongly for a fairly hard line on the immigration issue. I think Labor has that problem that a lot of Labor’s base and Labor’s active supporters are sympathetic to a more soft or tolerant line, and I think the Labor Party suffers more internal agony about this issue,’’ Robinson says. The issue is causing ‘‘some problems’’ for the Government, eroding their support from the left. ‘‘The immigration issue comes and goes,’’ Robinson says. ‘‘But it’s worthwhile keeping in mind, for example, that public opinion about immigration levels overall mostly seems to be driven by the level of unemployment. If unemployment is coming down and the economic recovery is well underway by the time of the next election, that, in a sense, I think is going to make immigration even less of an election issue than it would be.’’ Hughes believes voters are reacting to Rudd’s confusing message – that he is tough on people smuggling but humane in dealing with asylum seekers. ‘‘I think the marketplace would respect him a lot more and stick with his brand a lot more if he was clear one way or another,’’ Hughes says. ‘‘We need to see Kevin Rudd PM now. Voters are saying, ‘We need to know that you’re not just about cool, funky things and promising bucketloads of change, but also that you can manage the economy, that you can manage the Government and that you can look after our interests and needs’.’’ If Rudd can’t resolve a stand-off with the asylum seekers on the Oceanic Viking, Hughes believes voters will begin to question whether the Prime Minister can deal with bigger issues, such as the ‘‘mess’’ in the economy and ‘‘mess’’ with the emissions trading scheme designed to tackle climate change – one of the Government’s
biggest challenges, according to Day, who believes Rudd is ‘‘shirking’’ making tough decisions. ‘‘If climate change is serious, you can’t be half-hearted in tackling it. ‘‘I think in Australia . . . it actually opens up tremendous opportunities and we’re just not grasping them,’’ he says. But Day warns against drawing conclusions from one bad poll for Rudd. ‘‘It would be very ill-advised to take one poll as an end of Australians’ attachment to Kevin Rudd or the Labor Party, particularly as his own personal rating hasn’t really been affected,’’ Day says. In the latest Newspoll, almost 60 per cent of voters were satisfied with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s performance, compared with 63 per cent two weeks ago. About one in three was disappointed with his performance – up four points. Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s rating remained stable, with only 32 per cent of voters satisfied with his performance. About half of the voters surveyed are dissatisfied with Turnbull compared with 54 per cent two weeks ago. Robinson believes the Government has lost some support but that the latest poll exaggerates the size of the shift in public opinion. ‘‘I think the Rudd honeymoon has gone through various phases,’’ Robinson says. ‘‘I think it’s interesting that initially perhaps there was this prolonged period of very strong approval for Kevin Rudd, then that seemed to undergo something of a decline, perhaps, with the economic crisis and people with anxiety about the future. ‘‘Then there seemed to be this drift back towards the Government as well. So perhaps he’s been to a first honeymoon then a second honeymoon but maybe this second honeymoon is starting to run out a bit of steam.’’ Robinson thinks the Government is still in a ‘‘strong position’’ and a ‘‘strong favourite’’ to win the next election, potentially with an increased margin after favourable electoral redistributions. Lewis says their polls haven’t picked up any change in support on a two-party-preferred basis. ‘‘You wouldn’t want to call the honeymoon over yet. You wouldn’t want to say the marriage is going stale yet. There’s a little way to run,’’ according to Lewis who believes the Newspoll has picked up a ‘‘blip’’. Hughes says the result is a warning signal for Rudd. ‘‘The market is saying, ‘Look you’re not really looking after us as much as you used to. What’s going on? We used to think you were cool and trendy and we loved you and we had this relationship with you’,’’ Hughes says. Rudd must learn lessons from former prime minister John Howard, who was ‘‘like the Corolla’’ of federal politics – a master of rebranding. ‘‘[Rudd’s] got to . . . refresh the brand. You can’t rebuild it. It’s too late. He is the brand so you can’t suddenly come out with a new look and dye your hair purple or something.’’ Voters are ‘‘disheartened with the brand they like’’ and the only alternative is Turnbull, who is ‘‘not strong’’ – luckily for Rudd. ‘‘But the honeymoon is well over. When Kevin Rudd was elected, I would have thought he was a three-term prime minister but I think he’ll struggle for third. I don’t think he might make the third term. I think maybe two terms is all he’s going to have as prime minister,’’ Hughes says. Successful prime ministers – such as John Curtin, Ben Chifley and Andrew Fisher – have one thing in common, according to Day. They were all ‘‘very good at sketching out narrative’’. ‘‘People pretty much understood where they were being taken, where they were being led. There was a real sense of leadership,’’ Day says. ‘‘I think Mr Rudd has had a lot of distractions over the last year or so. ‘‘And I think whether he’ll be a great prime minister or not will be judged partly on whether he can sort of sketch out that narrative, and it’s a narrative that people can believe in and that deals with the big issues in a reasonable way.
Distractions: Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan have been preoccupied by economic concerns. Photo: GLEN McCURTAYNE.
‘‘But trying to hold on to our attachment to coal and all the rest of it at a time when we are confronting climate change seems to be very, very wrong.’’
Danielle Cronin is Political Correspondent for The Canberra Times.
CSIRO invites you to two free public forums as part of the symposium
CSIRO invites you to the following free Biosecurity in the new Bioeconomy: threats and opportunities public events around Canberra next week Weedy biofuels: should we be worried? Facilitator: Mr Tim Low, Invasive Species Council Thursday 19 November 4.00pm New Crops: New Pests? Facilitator: Prof Alison Stewart, Bioprotection NZ Friday 20 November 4.00pm Venue:The Shine Dome, Gordon Street, Canberra
CSIRO Public Events in the Canberra Region VISIT WWW.CSIRO.AU/ACTSEMINARS FOR VENUE DETAILS Bookings essential. Book online at www.csiro.au/events/ACT -seminars.html
