Daily Market Highlights
Daily Market Highlights Click below to see the Daily Commentary PDF version http://www.aghost.net/images/e0176001/DailyMarketCommentary.pdf Friday, July 28, 2017
Hogs: Today's Markets: Aug 17 LEAN HOGS Oct 17 LEAN HOGS Western Cash Carcass Cutout CME Index
• •
• •
$81.73 $66.98 $82.93 $99.94 $89.39
(0.53) (0.70)
Slaughter Last Week Last Year
0.44 (0.64) (0.45)
WTD WTD Last Wk WTD Last Yr
443,000 439,000 416,000 1,743,000 1,738,000 1,704,000
Lean Hogs are trading lower. With the historically wide basis, new sellers For August and October hogs may be difficult to find. While this might provide for a temporary bounce, rallies still look like selling opportunities as the market faces a higher than normal increase in supply for the second half of the year and recent trade data shows weak demand from China for imports. This is the lowest pork cut out value since June 22nd. The market remains oversold and basis levels are stretched wide but the supply outlook remains burdensome. . Technicals Oct Hogs
Support
Resistance
67.15 66.40
68.20 68.57
Aug ’17 Hogs:
Professional Ag Marketing [email protected]
(507) 449 2030 (886) 470-0757
Grains: Today's Markets: Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Aug 17 Sep 17 Nov 17
CORN CORN CORN SOYBEANS SOYBEANS SOYBEANS
• •
•
•
• •
•
$3.76 $3.89 $4.01 $9.99 $10.04 $10.12
$0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04
Upcoming Reports Crop Progress WASDE
31-Jul 10-Aug
Grains are trading higher. For the week, All Wheat prices are down roughly 13 to 17 cents for the winters and down 25 for spring; Corn down 6 cents; Soybeans down 16 cents; Soymeal down $7.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points (December crushing margins down 2 cents). The 11-16 Day forecast has both models, the GFS and European, showing a Northwest flow for the Midwest with ridging in the Plains/Rockies; they both have limited rains for the northern Plains and average to above average rains for the Delta. Rain ideas differ for the Midwest with the GFS showing average rains east of the Mississippi River and below in west; the European has below average precip in all of the Midwest. The International Grains Council cut its forecasts for 2017/18 global corn crops with prospects dimmed by dry weather in several countries; the IGC cut its forecast for the global corn crop by five million tons to 1.02 billion tons; this was driven by diminished outlooks in the United States (352.1 million from 357.7 million) and the European Union (59.5 million from 60.2 million); the cuts were partially offset by an upward revision to Brazil's 2017/18 corn crop to 90.2 million tons from 88.7 million. The International Grains Council put global soybean production in 2017/18 at 345 million tons, down from a previous forecast of 348 million but still the secondbiggest crop on record. The International Grains Council yesterday cut its forecast for 2017/18 global wheat crops with prospects dimmed by dry weather in several countries; the IGC cut its forecast for the world wheat crop by 3 million tons to 732 million; the decline was driven by downward revisions for the United States (46.7 million from 48.6 million), Australia (22.8 million from 24.8 million) and the EU (148.1 million from 149.4 million); the outlook for Russia's wheat crop was, however, upwardly revised to 71.0 million tons from 68.0 million. Funds bought 6,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal, 5,000 corn and 1,000 wheat on Thursday. Funds are est to be long 40,000 soybeans, short 1,000 soymeal, long 50,000 soyoil, long 101,000 corn and long 22,000 wheat. Technicals Dec Corn Nov Beans Sep Meal
Professional Ag Marketing [email protected]
Support
Resistance
3.85 10.00 322.00
3.97 10.10 326.00
(507) 449 2030 (886) 470-0757
Sep ’17 Corn
Aug ’17 Soybeans
Cattle: Today's Markets: Aug 17 LIVE CATTLE Oct 17 LIVE CATTLE Choice Select CME Index
• • •
$112.95 $112.20 $206.43 $196.66 $151.30
(1.35) (1.38) (0.64) (1.21) (0.27)
Slaughter Last Week Last Year WTD WTD Last Wk WTD Last Yr
118,000 115,000 111,000 467,000 462,000 448,000
Live Cattle are trading higher. Further weakness in beef prices and the outlook for a continued downtrend in cash should keep cattle futures at a stiff discount to the cash market. In addition, the market faces a burdensome supply flow over the near term and fund traders still hold a huge net long position so further long liquidation selling is a threat. Technicals Oct Cattle
Support
Resistance
112.65 111.82
114.47 115.50
Aug ’17 Cattle
Professional Ag Marketing [email protected]
(507) 449 2030 (886) 470-0757
Weather
Professional Ag Marketing [email protected]
(507) 449 2030 (886) 470-0757
Economy: Sep’17 Crude Oil
US Dollar Index
17-Jun
US Dollar
Aug 17 EURO FX Sep 17 S&P 500 INDEX Sep 17 DOW JONES Aug 17 ETHANOL 17-Jun
Crude Oil
17-Oct 17-Jun 17-Apr
Crude Oil Gold Natural Gas
$93.30 1.17495 2465.9 $21,724.00 $1.53 49.59 49.68 1266.8 2.964
($0.42) $0.006 ($6.000) ($19.00) $0.00 0.55 0.51 5.3 -0.003
Your Partner And Resource For Good Marketing Decisions For any questions please feel free to call us at (507) 449-2030 Copyright © 2017 Professional Ag Marketing, Inc. Reproduction in any form without the expressed written consent of Professional Ag Marketing, Inc. is strictly forbidden. This data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies without consulting Professional Ag Marketing Inc. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Past results are no indication of future performance. All information is based upon data that is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.
Professional Ag Marketing [email protected]
(507) 449 2030 (886) 470-0757
Hogs: Today's Markets: Aug 17 LEAN HOGS Oct 17 LEAN HOGS Western Cash Carcass Cutout CME Index
• •
• •
$81.73 $66.98 $82.93 $99.94 $89.39
(0.53) (0.70)
Slaughter Last Week Last Year
0.44 (0.64) (0.45)
WTD WTD Last Wk WTD Last Yr
443,000 439,000 416,000 1,743,000 1,738,000 1,704,000
Lean Hogs are trading lower. With the historically wide basis, new sellers For August and October hogs may be difficult to find. While this might provide for a temporary bounce, rallies still look like selling opportunities as the market faces a higher than normal increase in supply for the second half of the year and recent trade data shows weak demand from China for imports. This is the lowest pork cut out value since June 22nd. The market remains oversold and basis levels are stretched wide but the supply outlook remains burdensome. . Technicals Oct Hogs
Support
Resistance
67.15 66.40
68.20 68.57
Aug ’17 Hogs:
Professional Ag Marketing [email protected]
(507) 449 2030 (886) 470-0757
Grains: Today's Markets: Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Aug 17 Sep 17 Nov 17
CORN CORN CORN SOYBEANS SOYBEANS SOYBEANS
• •
•
•
• •
•
$3.76 $3.89 $4.01 $9.99 $10.04 $10.12
$0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04
Upcoming Reports Crop Progress WASDE
31-Jul 10-Aug
Grains are trading higher. For the week, All Wheat prices are down roughly 13 to 17 cents for the winters and down 25 for spring; Corn down 6 cents; Soybeans down 16 cents; Soymeal down $7.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points (December crushing margins down 2 cents). The 11-16 Day forecast has both models, the GFS and European, showing a Northwest flow for the Midwest with ridging in the Plains/Rockies; they both have limited rains for the northern Plains and average to above average rains for the Delta. Rain ideas differ for the Midwest with the GFS showing average rains east of the Mississippi River and below in west; the European has below average precip in all of the Midwest. The International Grains Council cut its forecasts for 2017/18 global corn crops with prospects dimmed by dry weather in several countries; the IGC cut its forecast for the global corn crop by five million tons to 1.02 billion tons; this was driven by diminished outlooks in the United States (352.1 million from 357.7 million) and the European Union (59.5 million from 60.2 million); the cuts were partially offset by an upward revision to Brazil's 2017/18 corn crop to 90.2 million tons from 88.7 million. The International Grains Council put global soybean production in 2017/18 at 345 million tons, down from a previous forecast of 348 million but still the secondbiggest crop on record. The International Grains Council yesterday cut its forecast for 2017/18 global wheat crops with prospects dimmed by dry weather in several countries; the IGC cut its forecast for the world wheat crop by 3 million tons to 732 million; the decline was driven by downward revisions for the United States (46.7 million from 48.6 million), Australia (22.8 million from 24.8 million) and the EU (148.1 million from 149.4 million); the outlook for Russia's wheat crop was, however, upwardly revised to 71.0 million tons from 68.0 million. Funds bought 6,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal, 5,000 corn and 1,000 wheat on Thursday. Funds are est to be long 40,000 soybeans, short 1,000 soymeal, long 50,000 soyoil, long 101,000 corn and long 22,000 wheat. Technicals Dec Corn Nov Beans Sep Meal
Professional Ag Marketing [email protected]
Support
Resistance
3.85 10.00 322.00
3.97 10.10 326.00
(507) 449 2030 (886) 470-0757
Sep ’17 Corn
Aug ’17 Soybeans
Cattle: Today's Markets: Aug 17 LIVE CATTLE Oct 17 LIVE CATTLE Choice Select CME Index
• • •
$112.95 $112.20 $206.43 $196.66 $151.30
(1.35) (1.38) (0.64) (1.21) (0.27)
Slaughter Last Week Last Year WTD WTD Last Wk WTD Last Yr
118,000 115,000 111,000 467,000 462,000 448,000
Live Cattle are trading higher. Further weakness in beef prices and the outlook for a continued downtrend in cash should keep cattle futures at a stiff discount to the cash market. In addition, the market faces a burdensome supply flow over the near term and fund traders still hold a huge net long position so further long liquidation selling is a threat. Technicals Oct Cattle
Support
Resistance
112.65 111.82
114.47 115.50
Aug ’17 Cattle
Professional Ag Marketing [email protected]
(507) 449 2030 (886) 470-0757
Weather
Professional Ag Marketing [email protected]
(507) 449 2030 (886) 470-0757
Economy: Sep’17 Crude Oil
US Dollar Index
17-Jun
US Dollar
Aug 17 EURO FX Sep 17 S&P 500 INDEX Sep 17 DOW JONES Aug 17 ETHANOL 17-Jun
Crude Oil
17-Oct 17-Jun 17-Apr
Crude Oil Gold Natural Gas
$93.30 1.17495 2465.9 $21,724.00 $1.53 49.59 49.68 1266.8 2.964
($0.42) $0.006 ($6.000) ($19.00) $0.00 0.55 0.51 5.3 -0.003
Your Partner And Resource For Good Marketing Decisions For any questions please feel free to call us at (507) 449-2030 Copyright © 2017 Professional Ag Marketing, Inc. Reproduction in any form without the expressed written consent of Professional Ag Marketing, Inc. is strictly forbidden. This data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies without consulting Professional Ag Marketing Inc. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Past results are no indication of future performance. All information is based upon data that is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.
Professional Ag Marketing [email protected]
(507) 449 2030 (886) 470-0757
