Dashboard 2014 plus.xlsx
Developing & Recently Completed Suburban Communities Supply Monitoring: Monthly reporting will be adjusted (trued up) with each SRG annual inventory report. Takes December inventory adds in new supply and subtracts out absorption
December, 2014 Estimated Serviced Inventory Subdivided Lots and Unsubdivided with Approved Land Use / Outline Plan (includes vacant registered lots and approved Tentative Plans of Subdivision) Sector & Community
2014 Estimated December Inventory Lands available to be Subdivided Lands available to be Subdivided Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total Ha 75 366 1,215 1,581 111 80 437 5,949 6,386 93 8 0 ‐60 ‐60 20 8 0 1,412 1,412 ‐1 2 0 20 20 35 172 803 8,536 9,339 258
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi 1,087 1,564 659 6,541 290 392 4 2,631 571 353 2,611 11,481
Total 2,651 7,200 682 2,635 924 14,092
Subdivided Land & Units (A) SF/Semi Multi Total 372 63 435 105 ‐75 30 61 1,565 1,626 242 86 328 780 1,639 2,419
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 93 1,005 1,975 2,980 168 3,571 1,528 5,099 39 ‐5 5,576 5,571 94 1,012 2,483 3,495 394 5,583 11,562 17,145
Ha 102 170 45 103 420
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi 1,377 2,038 3,676 1,453 56 7,141 1,254 2,569 6,363 13,201
Total 3,415 5,129 7,197 3,823 19,564
Subdivided Land & Units (A) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 4 108 ‐6 102 4 85 75 160 17 324 310 634 54 989 344 1,333 35 699 538 1,237 114 2,205 1,261 3,466
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 3 0 235 235 31 321 764 1,085 23 222 108 330 280 3,353 5,799 9,152 8 ‐2 632 630 345 3,894 7,538 11,432
Ha 7 35 40 334 42 459
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi 108 229 406 839 546 418 4,342 6,143 697 1,170 6,099 8,799
Total 337 1,245 964 10,485 1,867 14,898
Ha 2 16 34 5 55
Subdivided Land & Units (A) SF/Semi Multi Total 46 0 46 329 360 689 607 915 1,522 31 58 89 1,013 1,333 2,346
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 51 633 689 1,322 192 2,716 1,251 3,967 9 121 113 234 252 3,470 2,053 5,523
Ha 2 67 225 14 307
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi 46 0 962 1,049 3,323 2,166 152 171 4,483 3,386
Total 46 2,011 5,489 323 7,869
WEST Community Aspen Woods West Springs Springbank Hill Total
Ha 22 5 13 41
Subdivided Land & Units (A) SF/Semi Multi Total 259 63 322 29 81 110 128 0 128 416 144 560
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 21 245 288 533 20 97 690 787 1 ‐4 0 ‐4 41 338 978 1,316
Ha 43 25 14 82
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 504 351 855 126 771 897 124 0 124 754 1,122 1,876
NORTHWEST Community No Communities Total
Ha 0 0
Subdivided Land & Units (A) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 322 6,222 7,322 13,544
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 1,204 14,088 30,667 44,755
Ha 1,525
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 20,310 37,989 58,299
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 112 2,588 4,583 7,171 210 3,634 2,738 6,372
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 566 6,386 20,099 26,485 638 7,702 10,569 18,271
Ha 677 848
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 8,974 24,682 33,656 11,336 13,307 24,643
NORTH Community Nolan Hill Sage Hill Sherwood Kincora Evanston Total
Units available for Housing Units available for Housing Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 36 721 349 1,070 13 222 592 814 12 290 452 742 ‐8 4 1,219 1,223 33 571 333 904 86 1,808 2,945 4,753
NORTHEAST Community Cityscape S ddl Rid Saddle Ridge Skyview Ranch Redstone Total
Ha 10 2 6 9 26
EAST Community No Communities Total
Ha 0 0
SOUTHEAST Community New Brighton g Copperfield Cranston Mahogany Auburn Bay Total SOUTH Community Chaparral Walden Legacy Silverado Total
CITYTOTAL
CITYTOTAL Portion of City NORTH 1/2 OF CITY SOUTH 1/2 OF CITY
Source: City of Calgary: Planning Development and Assessmen ‐ City Wide Policy & Integration ‐ Geodemographics North half of Calgary = North, Northeast, East, Northwest Sectors; South half of Calgary = Southeast, South and West Sectors Note on SERVICED LAND: The CITY defines capacity for a serviced lot as EITHER… Lot that has Outline plan (land use) and all five services (water, storm, sanitary, fire and transportation). T Translation: A lot which is ‘available for tentative plans of subdivision.’…. Which December Include…. l ti A l t hi h i ‘ il bl f t t ti l f bdi i i ’ Whi h D b I l d Lot that is approved and available for a Building Permit (BP). Translation: A lot that has all services, is subdivided and has all the approvals. This also includes those lots that have “pipes sticking out of the ground”. Process to determine Current Month's supply: Subdivided: Takes previous months supply. Adds in the approvals for the month to get additional supply added.Then subtracts out estimated absorption using Building Permits from the Subdivided supply.This then equals the current estimated subdivided supply. Unsubdivided: Takes the previous months unsubdivided supply. Then adds in any approvals in outline plan/landuse (unsubdivided).Then takes out the months additional subdivided supply from this total.This then equals the current estimated unsubdivided supply.
Monthly Absorption: December 2014
Monthly Supply Approved By Subdivision Services: December 2014
Yearly Average Absorption: December 2012‐ December 2014
December 2014 (Subdivided = Tentative and Unsubdivided = Outline Plans) Additional Supply Added to 2014 Inventory NORTH Community Nolan Hill Sage Hill Sherwood Kincora Evanston Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 2 0 1 0 1 5
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 30 18 1 0 31 0 0 0 21 14 83 32
Total 48 1 31 0 35 115
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 351 103 454 87 443 530 145 50 195 34 158 192 536 122 658 1,153 877 2,030
NORTHEAST Community Cityscape Saddle Ridge Skyview Ranch Redstone Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 1,643 1,643 0 0 0 0 12 0 1,643 1,643
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0 12 0 12
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,643 1,643 0 0 0 0 1,643 1,643
Ha 0 0 0 0 1
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 1 10 8 0 2 0 4 0 15 10
Total 11 8 2 4 25
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 100 46 146 121 126 246 204 321 525 192 120 312 616 614 1,230
EAST Community No Communities Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST Community New Brighton New Brighton Copperfield Cranston Mahogany Auburn Bay Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 335 335 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 335 335
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0 3 0 0 3
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335 335 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335 335
Ha 1 0 4 2 1 8
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 16 6 8 0 17 64 44 0 37 8 122 78
Total 22 8 81 44 45 122
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 201 3 204 173 388 561 441 190 631 487 243 730 530 266 796 1,832 1,091 2,924
SOUTH Community Chaparral Walden Legacy Silverado Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0 0 0 0
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 1 1 0 2
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 7 0 16 0 17 0 3 0 43 0
Total 7 16 17 3 43
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 132 0 132 172 112 284 277 0 277 41 111 152 623 222 845
WEST Community Aspen Woods West Springs Springbank Hill Totall
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 18 0 18 1 18 0 18
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0 1 1
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 18 18 0 18
Ha 1 0 0 1
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 10 0 3 0 3 0 16 0
Total 10 3 3 16
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 170 34 204 91 85 177 48 0 48 309 119 428
NORTHWEST Community No Communities Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 16 18 1,978 1,996
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0
Ha 16
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 18 1,978 1,996
Ha 17
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 279 120
Total 399
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 4,534 2,924 7,458
CITYTOTAL
Source: City of Calgary: Planning Development and Assessmen ‐ City Wide Policy & Integration ‐ Geodemographics North half of Calgary = North, Northeast, East, Northwest Sectors; South half of Calgary = Southeast, South and West Sectors Note on SERVICED LAND: The CITY defines capacity for a serviced lot as EITHER… Lot that has Outline plan (land use) and all five services (water, storm, sanitary, fire and transportation). Translation: A lot which is ‘available for tentative plans of subdivision.’…. Which December Include…. Lot that is approved and available for a Building Permit (BP). Translation: A lot that has all services, is subdivided and has all the approvals. This also includes those lots that have “pipes sticking out of the ground”.
18000
16000
14473
14,286
15,301
14,876
14000
14,219 14,694
14,107
14,106
14,088
June approval of an Outline Plan in Saddle Ridge increased supply of single/semi units. 12000
SF/Semi Unsubdivided SF/Semi Subdivided 10000
Unsubdivided and Serviced lands with approved land use (outline plan) in place available to industry for submissions of subdivision plans (anticipated units from approved plans). The Red Line is the monthly supply or capacity of units with vacant registered lots and/or approved subdvision.
8000
6,801
6,623
6,871
6,876
6,677
6,902
6,628
6,483
6,222
6000
4000 April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Single Family/Semi Suburban Subdivided Unit Capacity Serviced By Sector (April 2014 to December 2014) 3,500 3,072
N
NE
E
SE
S
W
NW
3,000
2,500 2,205 2,000 1,808 1,516 1,500
1,027
1,013
1,000 651
780
535
416
500
0 2014 Dec
2014 Nov
2014 Oct
2014 Sept
2014 Aug
2014 July
2014 June
2014 May
2014 April
What is the City Serviced Definition? The definition of “serviced land” has been expanded. Previously, “serviced” has been defined as having City water, storm, and sanitary infrastructure in place providing capacity for development for industry. Now “serviced” represents those Five leading infrastructure services of Water, Storm, Sanitary, Transportation and Fire having infrastructure capacity in place by either the developer or The City. These are areas where the services are either installed by The City or provided by the developer without further City expenditures. These lands are comprised of two types of measures those that have local on‐site services in place and those that do not have local on‐site services in place but do have capacity within City infrastructure to accommodate their development.
The CITY defines capacity for a serviced lot as EITHER… (A) A lot that has Outline plan (land use) and all five services (water, storm, sanitary, fire and transportation). Translation: A lot which is ‘available for tentative plans of subdivision.’ …. Which Can Include…. (B) A lot that is approved and available for a Building Permit (BP). Translation: A lot that has all services, is subdivided and has all the approvals. This also includes those lots that have “pipes sticking out of the ground”. The INDUSTRY (builders) defines a serviced lot as .. (C) A lot with all approvals and services and ready for construction. Translation: A lot ready for a BP that has pipes ‘sticking out of the ground’. ‐ In Calgary, shallow utilities are not a requirement for a BP and sometimes builders will accept a lot with the expectation of shallows being forthcoming, but for the most part the definition of a serviced lot from a builder’s point of view means they have the necessary services to construct.
Sample screenshot of City of Calgary detailed inventory.
Understanding the Available Supply (of Lands available to the development industry) Unsubdivided Serviced with Land Use Approved These areas are fully serviced (no further City infrastructure is required) have land use and outline plan in place. These areas are available for tentative plan submissions by the Developer to the City for delivery to the market of serviced single family/semi‐detached lots. (The developer still has to apply for subdivision and pay for the final service connections from City infrastructure to every individual lot and create fully serviced parcels, and they do tend to delay this final cost in keeping with demand from the building community). At this point – the lands have Approved ASP/OP/are fully serviced and are lying fallow until tentative plans are submitted ‐ The City has little to say about the timing/delivery of the final serviced lot to the home builder. The City waits for the industry to submit tentative plans on this land. Conforming to the approved land use the tentative plans are generally processed within the standard ’60 day’ window.
Caveats? And Issues with Monitoring Understanding the Data As many in the residential construction and land development industry are aware, there is an annual lot count analysis compiled by a private company that physically observes how many single family lots have deep utilities installed (“water valve/pipe out of the ground”) which typically indicates construction of a house can occur on a site In the new report, The Developing Suburban Communities Supply Monitoring Report, developed jointly between The City of Calgary with UDI‐ Calgary and CHBA‐Calgary Region takes into account these fully serviced lots and also captures lots that have been granted subdivision approval (approved tentative plan). City leading infrastructure is in place but the lots still require utility servicing by the developer. There may be a gap in the serviced supply indicated by the private lot count analysis and the numbers contained within this new report. This potential gap would be due to the additional information collected as indicated above, along with other changes in methodology that include time of year the initial data is compiled and the number of building permits recorded monthly. It is important to note that any difference between the reports should not be seen as a deficiency of either reporting mechanism but rather an opportunity for the industry to gain a better understanding of the number of lots expected to come on stream within the near term as the lot servicing is completed (and become construction ready). This is a positive step forward as in the past this information has been very difficult to obtain. Bulding Permit Land Area Estimates As we do not have land area calculations for the Building Permits information a proxy to calculate the land area is used. This is done by simply taking the derived mathamatically calculated Units Per Hectare values of the subdivided lands as taken from the original April Land inventory. This is a reasonable method to determine the land area of the permits as these are the same areas that are currently considered subdivided and we know the units and remaining land, densities and the number of permits or units from these lands. See the calculation on the "Supply April 2014 (SRG )" Tab in this spreadsheet. Negative Values Reported? The detailed Suburban Lands Inventory is compiled using Civic Census, Registred vacant lots and Developer "Anticipated Units" as the starting point of the inventory dated April of each year. As monthly monitoring is done after the inventory there are cases where the Subdivision approval for lots and units may be higher than what The City Inventory originally recorded in April. This is true of building permits as well. In cases where this happens a negative number may be the result. i.e., Anticipated units in Evanston may be for 300 single family units and 400 multi units on a particular land use site area. However as the subdivision and building permits are applied for there could be a case that it ended up being 310 single family and 480 multi units. This would cause the negative number. This would be adjusted in the next detailed Suburban Residential Growth detailed inventory (yearly report). Amendment of Outline Plan Any amendment of an approved Outline Plan was not included to avoid double counting in Monthly report, but annual adjustment will be made to reflect the changes. Cancelled Building Permit The Developing Suburban Communities Supply Monitoring Report report does not reflect changes for cancelled building permits, but annual adjustment will be made to reflect the changes.
Census Dwelling Count for Under‐construction Dwellings The Developing Suburban Communities Supply Monitoring Report uses Civic Census dwelling count as the base number. Under construction dwellings could be missed out if foundations are not in place or addresses are not posted properly. Subdivision of Multi‐family Sites Multi‐family sites usully go through multiple subdivision applications to create legal lots (units) that could be sold to individuals. For the purpose of Lot Supply report, UDA and City of Calgary agreed to count the very first subvision application of the sites, and the number of units are determined by the anticipated units from approved Outline Plans.
Actively Developing Communities in Calgary
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SGH
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EVN
RSN
SHW KCA
SKR CSC SAD
NORTHWEST
WSP ASP
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SOUTHEAST AUB
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WAL LEG
ISC: Protected
calgary.ca | Call 3-1-1
Created on: January 12, 2015 Z:\Geodemographics\PROJECTS\Lot Supply Dashboard\MXDs\Developing_Communities_in_Calgary_.mxd
MAH
December, 2014 Estimated Serviced Inventory Subdivided Lots and Unsubdivided with Approved Land Use / Outline Plan (includes vacant registered lots and approved Tentative Plans of Subdivision) Sector & Community
2014 Estimated December Inventory Lands available to be Subdivided Lands available to be Subdivided Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total Ha 75 366 1,215 1,581 111 80 437 5,949 6,386 93 8 0 ‐60 ‐60 20 8 0 1,412 1,412 ‐1 2 0 20 20 35 172 803 8,536 9,339 258
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi 1,087 1,564 659 6,541 290 392 4 2,631 571 353 2,611 11,481
Total 2,651 7,200 682 2,635 924 14,092
Subdivided Land & Units (A) SF/Semi Multi Total 372 63 435 105 ‐75 30 61 1,565 1,626 242 86 328 780 1,639 2,419
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 93 1,005 1,975 2,980 168 3,571 1,528 5,099 39 ‐5 5,576 5,571 94 1,012 2,483 3,495 394 5,583 11,562 17,145
Ha 102 170 45 103 420
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi 1,377 2,038 3,676 1,453 56 7,141 1,254 2,569 6,363 13,201
Total 3,415 5,129 7,197 3,823 19,564
Subdivided Land & Units (A) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 4 108 ‐6 102 4 85 75 160 17 324 310 634 54 989 344 1,333 35 699 538 1,237 114 2,205 1,261 3,466
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 3 0 235 235 31 321 764 1,085 23 222 108 330 280 3,353 5,799 9,152 8 ‐2 632 630 345 3,894 7,538 11,432
Ha 7 35 40 334 42 459
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi 108 229 406 839 546 418 4,342 6,143 697 1,170 6,099 8,799
Total 337 1,245 964 10,485 1,867 14,898
Ha 2 16 34 5 55
Subdivided Land & Units (A) SF/Semi Multi Total 46 0 46 329 360 689 607 915 1,522 31 58 89 1,013 1,333 2,346
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 51 633 689 1,322 192 2,716 1,251 3,967 9 121 113 234 252 3,470 2,053 5,523
Ha 2 67 225 14 307
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi 46 0 962 1,049 3,323 2,166 152 171 4,483 3,386
Total 46 2,011 5,489 323 7,869
WEST Community Aspen Woods West Springs Springbank Hill Total
Ha 22 5 13 41
Subdivided Land & Units (A) SF/Semi Multi Total 259 63 322 29 81 110 128 0 128 416 144 560
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 21 245 288 533 20 97 690 787 1 ‐4 0 ‐4 41 338 978 1,316
Ha 43 25 14 82
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 504 351 855 126 771 897 124 0 124 754 1,122 1,876
NORTHWEST Community No Communities Total
Ha 0 0
Subdivided Land & Units (A) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 322 6,222 7,322 13,544
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 1,204 14,088 30,667 44,755
Ha 1,525
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 20,310 37,989 58,299
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 112 2,588 4,583 7,171 210 3,634 2,738 6,372
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 566 6,386 20,099 26,485 638 7,702 10,569 18,271
Ha 677 848
Total Supply (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 8,974 24,682 33,656 11,336 13,307 24,643
NORTH Community Nolan Hill Sage Hill Sherwood Kincora Evanston Total
Units available for Housing Units available for Housing Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 36 721 349 1,070 13 222 592 814 12 290 452 742 ‐8 4 1,219 1,223 33 571 333 904 86 1,808 2,945 4,753
NORTHEAST Community Cityscape S ddl Rid Saddle Ridge Skyview Ranch Redstone Total
Ha 10 2 6 9 26
EAST Community No Communities Total
Ha 0 0
SOUTHEAST Community New Brighton g Copperfield Cranston Mahogany Auburn Bay Total SOUTH Community Chaparral Walden Legacy Silverado Total
CITYTOTAL
CITYTOTAL Portion of City NORTH 1/2 OF CITY SOUTH 1/2 OF CITY
Source: City of Calgary: Planning Development and Assessmen ‐ City Wide Policy & Integration ‐ Geodemographics North half of Calgary = North, Northeast, East, Northwest Sectors; South half of Calgary = Southeast, South and West Sectors Note on SERVICED LAND: The CITY defines capacity for a serviced lot as EITHER… Lot that has Outline plan (land use) and all five services (water, storm, sanitary, fire and transportation). T Translation: A lot which is ‘available for tentative plans of subdivision.’…. Which December Include…. l ti A l t hi h i ‘ il bl f t t ti l f bdi i i ’ Whi h D b I l d Lot that is approved and available for a Building Permit (BP). Translation: A lot that has all services, is subdivided and has all the approvals. This also includes those lots that have “pipes sticking out of the ground”. Process to determine Current Month's supply: Subdivided: Takes previous months supply. Adds in the approvals for the month to get additional supply added.Then subtracts out estimated absorption using Building Permits from the Subdivided supply.This then equals the current estimated subdivided supply. Unsubdivided: Takes the previous months unsubdivided supply. Then adds in any approvals in outline plan/landuse (unsubdivided).Then takes out the months additional subdivided supply from this total.This then equals the current estimated unsubdivided supply.
Monthly Absorption: December 2014
Monthly Supply Approved By Subdivision Services: December 2014
Yearly Average Absorption: December 2012‐ December 2014
December 2014 (Subdivided = Tentative and Unsubdivided = Outline Plans) Additional Supply Added to 2014 Inventory NORTH Community Nolan Hill Sage Hill Sherwood Kincora Evanston Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 2 0 1 0 1 5
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 30 18 1 0 31 0 0 0 21 14 83 32
Total 48 1 31 0 35 115
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 351 103 454 87 443 530 145 50 195 34 158 192 536 122 658 1,153 877 2,030
NORTHEAST Community Cityscape Saddle Ridge Skyview Ranch Redstone Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 1,643 1,643 0 0 0 0 12 0 1,643 1,643
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0 12 0 12
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,643 1,643 0 0 0 0 1,643 1,643
Ha 0 0 0 0 1
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 1 10 8 0 2 0 4 0 15 10
Total 11 8 2 4 25
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 100 46 146 121 126 246 204 321 525 192 120 312 616 614 1,230
EAST Community No Communities Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST Community New Brighton New Brighton Copperfield Cranston Mahogany Auburn Bay Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 335 335 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 335 335
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0 3 0 0 3
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335 335 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335 335
Ha 1 0 4 2 1 8
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 16 6 8 0 17 64 44 0 37 8 122 78
Total 22 8 81 44 45 122
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 201 3 204 173 388 561 441 190 631 487 243 730 530 266 796 1,832 1,091 2,924
SOUTH Community Chaparral Walden Legacy Silverado Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0 0 0 0
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 1 1 0 2
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 7 0 16 0 17 0 3 0 43 0
Total 7 16 17 3 43
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 132 0 132 172 112 284 277 0 277 41 111 152 623 222 845
WEST Community Aspen Woods West Springs Springbank Hill Totall
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 18 0 18 1 18 0 18
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0 1 1
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 18 18 0 18
Ha 1 0 0 1
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 10 0 3 0 3 0 16 0
Total 10 3 3 16
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 170 34 204 91 85 177 48 0 48 309 119 428
NORTHWEST Community No Communities Total
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ha 0 0
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subdivided Land & Units (A) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 16 18 1,978 1,996
Unsubdivided Land & Units (B) Ha SF/Semi Multi Total 0 0 0 0
Ha 16
Total Additions (A+B) SF/Semi Multi Total 18 1,978 1,996
Ha 17
Building Permits SF/Semi Multi 279 120
Total 399
Yearly Average Absorption SF/Semi Multi Total 4,534 2,924 7,458
CITYTOTAL
Source: City of Calgary: Planning Development and Assessmen ‐ City Wide Policy & Integration ‐ Geodemographics North half of Calgary = North, Northeast, East, Northwest Sectors; South half of Calgary = Southeast, South and West Sectors Note on SERVICED LAND: The CITY defines capacity for a serviced lot as EITHER… Lot that has Outline plan (land use) and all five services (water, storm, sanitary, fire and transportation). Translation: A lot which is ‘available for tentative plans of subdivision.’…. Which December Include…. Lot that is approved and available for a Building Permit (BP). Translation: A lot that has all services, is subdivided and has all the approvals. This also includes those lots that have “pipes sticking out of the ground”.
18000
16000
14473
14,286
15,301
14,876
14000
14,219 14,694
14,107
14,106
14,088
June approval of an Outline Plan in Saddle Ridge increased supply of single/semi units. 12000
SF/Semi Unsubdivided SF/Semi Subdivided 10000
Unsubdivided and Serviced lands with approved land use (outline plan) in place available to industry for submissions of subdivision plans (anticipated units from approved plans). The Red Line is the monthly supply or capacity of units with vacant registered lots and/or approved subdvision.
8000
6,801
6,623
6,871
6,876
6,677
6,902
6,628
6,483
6,222
6000
4000 April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Single Family/Semi Suburban Subdivided Unit Capacity Serviced By Sector (April 2014 to December 2014) 3,500 3,072
N
NE
E
SE
S
W
NW
3,000
2,500 2,205 2,000 1,808 1,516 1,500
1,027
1,013
1,000 651
780
535
416
500
0 2014 Dec
2014 Nov
2014 Oct
2014 Sept
2014 Aug
2014 July
2014 June
2014 May
2014 April
What is the City Serviced Definition? The definition of “serviced land” has been expanded. Previously, “serviced” has been defined as having City water, storm, and sanitary infrastructure in place providing capacity for development for industry. Now “serviced” represents those Five leading infrastructure services of Water, Storm, Sanitary, Transportation and Fire having infrastructure capacity in place by either the developer or The City. These are areas where the services are either installed by The City or provided by the developer without further City expenditures. These lands are comprised of two types of measures those that have local on‐site services in place and those that do not have local on‐site services in place but do have capacity within City infrastructure to accommodate their development.
The CITY defines capacity for a serviced lot as EITHER… (A) A lot that has Outline plan (land use) and all five services (water, storm, sanitary, fire and transportation). Translation: A lot which is ‘available for tentative plans of subdivision.’ …. Which Can Include…. (B) A lot that is approved and available for a Building Permit (BP). Translation: A lot that has all services, is subdivided and has all the approvals. This also includes those lots that have “pipes sticking out of the ground”. The INDUSTRY (builders) defines a serviced lot as .. (C) A lot with all approvals and services and ready for construction. Translation: A lot ready for a BP that has pipes ‘sticking out of the ground’. ‐ In Calgary, shallow utilities are not a requirement for a BP and sometimes builders will accept a lot with the expectation of shallows being forthcoming, but for the most part the definition of a serviced lot from a builder’s point of view means they have the necessary services to construct.
Sample screenshot of City of Calgary detailed inventory.
Understanding the Available Supply (of Lands available to the development industry) Unsubdivided Serviced with Land Use Approved These areas are fully serviced (no further City infrastructure is required) have land use and outline plan in place. These areas are available for tentative plan submissions by the Developer to the City for delivery to the market of serviced single family/semi‐detached lots. (The developer still has to apply for subdivision and pay for the final service connections from City infrastructure to every individual lot and create fully serviced parcels, and they do tend to delay this final cost in keeping with demand from the building community). At this point – the lands have Approved ASP/OP/are fully serviced and are lying fallow until tentative plans are submitted ‐ The City has little to say about the timing/delivery of the final serviced lot to the home builder. The City waits for the industry to submit tentative plans on this land. Conforming to the approved land use the tentative plans are generally processed within the standard ’60 day’ window.
Caveats? And Issues with Monitoring Understanding the Data As many in the residential construction and land development industry are aware, there is an annual lot count analysis compiled by a private company that physically observes how many single family lots have deep utilities installed (“water valve/pipe out of the ground”) which typically indicates construction of a house can occur on a site In the new report, The Developing Suburban Communities Supply Monitoring Report, developed jointly between The City of Calgary with UDI‐ Calgary and CHBA‐Calgary Region takes into account these fully serviced lots and also captures lots that have been granted subdivision approval (approved tentative plan). City leading infrastructure is in place but the lots still require utility servicing by the developer. There may be a gap in the serviced supply indicated by the private lot count analysis and the numbers contained within this new report. This potential gap would be due to the additional information collected as indicated above, along with other changes in methodology that include time of year the initial data is compiled and the number of building permits recorded monthly. It is important to note that any difference between the reports should not be seen as a deficiency of either reporting mechanism but rather an opportunity for the industry to gain a better understanding of the number of lots expected to come on stream within the near term as the lot servicing is completed (and become construction ready). This is a positive step forward as in the past this information has been very difficult to obtain. Bulding Permit Land Area Estimates As we do not have land area calculations for the Building Permits information a proxy to calculate the land area is used. This is done by simply taking the derived mathamatically calculated Units Per Hectare values of the subdivided lands as taken from the original April Land inventory. This is a reasonable method to determine the land area of the permits as these are the same areas that are currently considered subdivided and we know the units and remaining land, densities and the number of permits or units from these lands. See the calculation on the "Supply April 2014 (SRG )" Tab in this spreadsheet. Negative Values Reported? The detailed Suburban Lands Inventory is compiled using Civic Census, Registred vacant lots and Developer "Anticipated Units" as the starting point of the inventory dated April of each year. As monthly monitoring is done after the inventory there are cases where the Subdivision approval for lots and units may be higher than what The City Inventory originally recorded in April. This is true of building permits as well. In cases where this happens a negative number may be the result. i.e., Anticipated units in Evanston may be for 300 single family units and 400 multi units on a particular land use site area. However as the subdivision and building permits are applied for there could be a case that it ended up being 310 single family and 480 multi units. This would cause the negative number. This would be adjusted in the next detailed Suburban Residential Growth detailed inventory (yearly report). Amendment of Outline Plan Any amendment of an approved Outline Plan was not included to avoid double counting in Monthly report, but annual adjustment will be made to reflect the changes. Cancelled Building Permit The Developing Suburban Communities Supply Monitoring Report report does not reflect changes for cancelled building permits, but annual adjustment will be made to reflect the changes.
Census Dwelling Count for Under‐construction Dwellings The Developing Suburban Communities Supply Monitoring Report uses Civic Census dwelling count as the base number. Under construction dwellings could be missed out if foundations are not in place or addresses are not posted properly. Subdivision of Multi‐family Sites Multi‐family sites usully go through multiple subdivision applications to create legal lots (units) that could be sold to individuals. For the purpose of Lot Supply report, UDA and City of Calgary agreed to count the very first subvision application of the sites, and the number of units are determined by the anticipated units from approved Outline Plans.
Actively Developing Communities in Calgary
t
NOL
SGH
NORTH
EVN
RSN
SHW KCA
SKR CSC SAD
NORTHWEST
WSP ASP
WEST
NORTHEAST
CENTRE
SPH
EAST
SOUTH
NEB
CPF
SOUTHEAST AUB
CHA
SVO
CRA
WAL LEG
ISC: Protected
calgary.ca | Call 3-1-1
Created on: January 12, 2015 Z:\Geodemographics\PROJECTS\Lot Supply Dashboard\MXDs\Developing_Communities_in_Calgary_.mxd
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