Deep Sea Coral Analysis
Deep Sea Coral Analysis NEFSC Social Sciences Branch
Overview of approach and analysis of Option 7
December 20, 2017
Utilize multiple data sources • Attempt to overcome shortcomings in each • Vessel Trip Report (VTR) • “Census” of fishing trips • Only one lat-lon per trip • Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) • Higher spatial resolution • Only lat-lon of poll, time stamp, and vessel identifier
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2
VTR data set • Joined VTR to NEFOP & ASM hauls • Statistical model estimates distance between observed hauls and VTR locations • Data indicates a trip’s spatial resolution • Depends on trip length, gear employed, region
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3
Use statistical model to assess confidence intervals • Distances equate to 25, 50, 75, 90 percentiles • Depends on trip length, area, and gear
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4
Comparison of results
Comparison of VTR against observed hauls Point Aggregation Scallop Dredge Bottom Trawl Mean 0% 0% Ten minute square Median -0.004% -0.01% Standard Deviation 0.56% 0.21% Mean 0% 0% 500 meters squared Median -0.001% -0.002% Standard Deviation 0.05% 0.02%
Confidence Interval Gillnet Scallop Dredge Bottom Trawl Gillnet -0.0002% 0% 0% 0% 0.01% -0.01% 0.01% 0.004% 0.59% 0.41% 0.12% 0.31% 0% 0% 0% 0% -0.01 0% 0% 0% 0.14 0.002% 0.001% 0.005%
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6
Total mispredicted error (observed fishing and predicted nonfishing + no observed fishing and predicted fishing) • Point aggregation/Confidence interval mispredicted revenue Ten Minute Square
500 m2
Gillnet
1.14494448
1.79742
Bottom Trawl
1.452881638
2.063841
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7
Revenue by Gear Option 7 (revised Dec 2017)
Option 6 (600 m min)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8
Percent of Owner Revenue Option 7 (revised Dec 2017)
Option 6 (600 m min)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9
Top 10 species Species Prefered Alternative BUTTERFISH 0.3 FLOUNDER, SUMMER 0.2 FLOUNDER, YELLOWTAIL 0.1 HADDOCK 0.1 HAKE, SILVER 1.1 INSHORE LONGFIN SQUID 0.7 MONKFISH 0.1 Other 0.2 SCALLOP, SEA 1.1 SKATES 0.0 SQUID (ILLEX) 0.1 MACKEREL, ATLANTIC Not Top 10
Option 7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 1.3 Not Top 10 0.1 0.0
Percentage Increase 9% 9% 14% 14% 11% 10% 16% 11% 15% 9%
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10
VMS as secondary data source • Statistical models generally outperform more widespread speed rules • Muench, DePiper, & Demarest (CJFAS 2017) • Records & Demarest (Mimeo)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11
VMS Bottom Trawl Predictions Observed Hauls
VMS Model
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12
VMS Coverage of VTR trips is high Gear Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge Separator & Ruhle Trawl Separator & Ruhle Trawl Separator & Ruhle Trawl
Year 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Broad Zone Option 7 Permits VTR Trips VMS Trips Coverage 132 968 910 94% 124 848 768 91% 138 706 614 87% 19 20 18 90% 82 100 96 96% 194 265 257 97% 20 71 53 75% 33 135 114 84% 20 49 35 71%
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13
VMS Weighted effort (Percent of all permit weighted effort) Option 7 (revised Dec 2017)
Option 6 (600 m min)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14
Option 7 probability weighted effort
Gear Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop
Year Hours Fished Trips Permits 2005 19 27 19 2006 7 37 21 2007 16 48 26 2008 35 68 32 2009 45 70 29 2010 41 87 31 2011 24 54 20 2012 9 58 30 2005 NA NA 0 2006 NA NA 1 2007 NA NA 0 2008 NA NA 0 2009 NA NA 0 2010 NA NA 0 2011 NA NA 1 2012 NA NA 1
Gear LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Hours Fished 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 16 0 8 2 5 1
Trips 64 131 19 14 28 29 24 31 35 60 90 13 22 19 19 8
Permits 53 64 18 13 27 28 19 26 20 29 37 9 6 9 10 6
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15
In summary • The combined analysis indicates very few individuals have substantial exposure to Option 7 • VTR generally overestimates exposure • VMS coverage lacking for some highly exposed individuals • Predominantly landing longfin squid, silver hake, & butterfish • 19 of top 20 permits in 2013 • 10 of top 20 permits in 2014 • 7 of top 20 permits in 2015
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16
Questions?
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17
Raw Distance Statistics Gear
# Hauls
Mean
Median
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
Bottom Trawl/Pot
130,385
16.33
6.51
23.87
0
284.83
Drift Gillnet
1,271
4.06
1.25
8.33
0
96.18
Longline
4,233
4.65
1.30
11.29
0
131.44
Midwater Trawl
3,626
10.66
3.31
19.47
0
204.39
Dredge
291,718
10.31
4.09
17.33
0
303.51
Sink Gillnet
34,462
5.41
1.77
12.24
0
186.59
Observer coverage Gear
Ton class
2010 rate
2011 rate
2012 rate
2013 rate
Scallop Dredge
1
0.00
2.96
3.35
4.23
Scallop Dredge
2
2.15
1.98
1.16
3.04
Scallop Dredge
3
3.70
4.05
5.03
6.13
Scallop Dredge
4
7.64
8.33
11.40
10.93
Gillnet
1
4.16
8.49
6.87
6.18
Gillnet
2
12.29
12.78
10.95
5.71
Gillnet
3
16.84
19.93
16.28
11.81
Gillnet
4
0
NA
0
NA
Bottom Trawl
1
3.73
2.24
2.30
2.18
Bottom Trawl
2
6.60
8.93
8.89
7.69
Bottom Trawl
3
7.94
10.36
8.73
9.27
Bottom Trawl
4
16.51
21.30
17.78
15.15
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19
Overview of approach and analysis of Option 7
December 20, 2017
Utilize multiple data sources • Attempt to overcome shortcomings in each • Vessel Trip Report (VTR) • “Census” of fishing trips • Only one lat-lon per trip • Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) • Higher spatial resolution • Only lat-lon of poll, time stamp, and vessel identifier
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2
VTR data set • Joined VTR to NEFOP & ASM hauls • Statistical model estimates distance between observed hauls and VTR locations • Data indicates a trip’s spatial resolution • Depends on trip length, gear employed, region
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3
Use statistical model to assess confidence intervals • Distances equate to 25, 50, 75, 90 percentiles • Depends on trip length, area, and gear
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4
Comparison of results
Comparison of VTR against observed hauls Point Aggregation Scallop Dredge Bottom Trawl Mean 0% 0% Ten minute square Median -0.004% -0.01% Standard Deviation 0.56% 0.21% Mean 0% 0% 500 meters squared Median -0.001% -0.002% Standard Deviation 0.05% 0.02%
Confidence Interval Gillnet Scallop Dredge Bottom Trawl Gillnet -0.0002% 0% 0% 0% 0.01% -0.01% 0.01% 0.004% 0.59% 0.41% 0.12% 0.31% 0% 0% 0% 0% -0.01 0% 0% 0% 0.14 0.002% 0.001% 0.005%
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6
Total mispredicted error (observed fishing and predicted nonfishing + no observed fishing and predicted fishing) • Point aggregation/Confidence interval mispredicted revenue Ten Minute Square
500 m2
Gillnet
1.14494448
1.79742
Bottom Trawl
1.452881638
2.063841
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7
Revenue by Gear Option 7 (revised Dec 2017)
Option 6 (600 m min)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8
Percent of Owner Revenue Option 7 (revised Dec 2017)
Option 6 (600 m min)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9
Top 10 species Species Prefered Alternative BUTTERFISH 0.3 FLOUNDER, SUMMER 0.2 FLOUNDER, YELLOWTAIL 0.1 HADDOCK 0.1 HAKE, SILVER 1.1 INSHORE LONGFIN SQUID 0.7 MONKFISH 0.1 Other 0.2 SCALLOP, SEA 1.1 SKATES 0.0 SQUID (ILLEX) 0.1 MACKEREL, ATLANTIC Not Top 10
Option 7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 1.3 Not Top 10 0.1 0.0
Percentage Increase 9% 9% 14% 14% 11% 10% 16% 11% 15% 9%
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10
VMS as secondary data source • Statistical models generally outperform more widespread speed rules • Muench, DePiper, & Demarest (CJFAS 2017) • Records & Demarest (Mimeo)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11
VMS Bottom Trawl Predictions Observed Hauls
VMS Model
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12
VMS Coverage of VTR trips is high Gear Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge Separator & Ruhle Trawl Separator & Ruhle Trawl Separator & Ruhle Trawl
Year 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Broad Zone Option 7 Permits VTR Trips VMS Trips Coverage 132 968 910 94% 124 848 768 91% 138 706 614 87% 19 20 18 90% 82 100 96 96% 194 265 257 97% 20 71 53 75% 33 135 114 84% 20 49 35 71%
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13
VMS Weighted effort (Percent of all permit weighted effort) Option 7 (revised Dec 2017)
Option 6 (600 m min)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14
Option 7 probability weighted effort
Gear Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl Bottom Trawl GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop GC Scallop
Year Hours Fished Trips Permits 2005 19 27 19 2006 7 37 21 2007 16 48 26 2008 35 68 32 2009 45 70 29 2010 41 87 31 2011 24 54 20 2012 9 58 30 2005 NA NA 0 2006 NA NA 1 2007 NA NA 0 2008 NA NA 0 2009 NA NA 0 2010 NA NA 0 2011 NA NA 1 2012 NA NA 1
Gear LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop LA Scallop Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl Squid Trawl
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Hours Fished 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 16 0 8 2 5 1
Trips 64 131 19 14 28 29 24 31 35 60 90 13 22 19 19 8
Permits 53 64 18 13 27 28 19 26 20 29 37 9 6 9 10 6
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15
In summary • The combined analysis indicates very few individuals have substantial exposure to Option 7 • VTR generally overestimates exposure • VMS coverage lacking for some highly exposed individuals • Predominantly landing longfin squid, silver hake, & butterfish • 19 of top 20 permits in 2013 • 10 of top 20 permits in 2014 • 7 of top 20 permits in 2015
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16
Questions?
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17
Raw Distance Statistics Gear
# Hauls
Mean
Median
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
Bottom Trawl/Pot
130,385
16.33
6.51
23.87
0
284.83
Drift Gillnet
1,271
4.06
1.25
8.33
0
96.18
Longline
4,233
4.65
1.30
11.29
0
131.44
Midwater Trawl
3,626
10.66
3.31
19.47
0
204.39
Dredge
291,718
10.31
4.09
17.33
0
303.51
Sink Gillnet
34,462
5.41
1.77
12.24
0
186.59
Observer coverage Gear
Ton class
2010 rate
2011 rate
2012 rate
2013 rate
Scallop Dredge
1
0.00
2.96
3.35
4.23
Scallop Dredge
2
2.15
1.98
1.16
3.04
Scallop Dredge
3
3.70
4.05
5.03
6.13
Scallop Dredge
4
7.64
8.33
11.40
10.93
Gillnet
1
4.16
8.49
6.87
6.18
Gillnet
2
12.29
12.78
10.95
5.71
Gillnet
3
16.84
19.93
16.28
11.81
Gillnet
4
0
NA
0
NA
Bottom Trawl
1
3.73
2.24
2.30
2.18
Bottom Trawl
2
6.60
8.93
8.89
7.69
Bottom Trawl
3
7.94
10.36
8.73
9.27
Bottom Trawl
4
16.51
21.30
17.78
15.15
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19
