DELAWARE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT
DELAWARE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT Jennifer de Mooy Delaware Division of Energy and Climate (DNREC)
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary 2015 Delaware Estuary Science & Environmental Summit January 26, 2015
Why did we develop the Delaware Climate Change Impact Assessment ? To understand and communicate the current and future impacts and risks from a changing climate. To summarize the best available science on climate change and the potential impacts for Delaware. To help Delaware’s citizens, communities and businesses prepare for and adapt to climate change.
How will the Assessment be used? • The Assessment is a scientific summary written for policy-makers, practitioners, and non-scientist readers. • State agencies, local governments, business and community leaders will find the Assessment a useful reference and resource for more in-depth planning and development of strategies to adapt to changing climate conditions. • Scientists and researchers can use climate projection data with other models and assessment tools.
Overview of the Assessment: Scientific Sources Sources of best available peer-reviewed science include: • • • • • •
Scientific literature Scientific assessments Expert interviews Steering Committee of scientists and practitioners Dr. Dan Leathers, Delaware State Climatologist (UD) Dr. Katharine Hayhoe (ATMOS Research and Consulting)
Overview of the Assessment: Two main components Delaware’s Climate • Climate Trends (observations) • Climate Projections (models)
Delaware’s Resources • Public Health • Water Resources • Agriculture • Ecosystems and Wildlife • Infrastructure
TEMPERATURE:
Trends and Projections
Delaware trend: Average temperatures are increasing
Mean Annual Temp. (F)
60
Statewide Mean Annual Temperature 1895 - 2012
58 56 54 52 50
+0.2oF per decade in every season but Fall
Source: Dr. Dan Leathers, Delaware State Climatologist
Temperature is projected to continue to rise
Larger increases projected in summer
Source: Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, et al
More hot days
Source: Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, et al
TEMPERATURE SUMMARY • Annual and seasonal temperatures are projected to increase, with slightly greater increases in summer as compared to winter. • Extreme heat days and heat waves are becoming more frequent; extreme cold, less frequent.
PRECIPITATION:
Trends and Projections
Delaware trend: Fall precipitation has increased An upward trend in autumn precipitation since 1895…. +0.27” / decade Delaware Statewide Autumn (SON) Precipitation 1895 - 2012
Precipitation (inches)
25 20 15 10 5 0
Source: Dr. Dan Leathers, Delaware State Climatologist
Annual precipitation projected to increase
Primarily due to increases in winter and fall precipitation. Source: Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, et al
More days of heavy precipitation
Source: Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, et al
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY • Annual precipitation projected to increase, mostly due to changes in winter and fall. • Heavy precipitation are expected to become more frequent as precipitation becomes more intense.
CLIMATE IMPACTS:
Species, Ecosystems, and Water Resources
Impacts to Species • Longer growing (frost-free) season may trigger changes in bloom time, migration, and reproduction – potentially causing a mismatch between plants and pollinators.
17
Impacts to Species • Longer growing (frost-free) season may trigger changes in bloom time, migration, and reproduction – potentially causing a mismatch between plants and pollinators. • Changes in precipitation will affect aquatic and wetland-dependent species, such as amphibians and ground-nesting birds.
18
Impacts to Species • Longer growing (frost-free) season may trigger changes in bloom time, migration, and reproduction – potentially causing a mismatch between plants and pollinators. • Changes in precipitation will affect aquatic and wetland-dependent species, such as amphibians and ground-nesting birds. • Wildlife species will face changes in habitat quality, timing, and availability of food sources, abundance of pests and diseases, and other stressors. 19
Impacts to Ecosystems • Freshwater habitats may be affected by higher water temperatures, resulting in algal blooms, decreased oxygen levels, and fish kills.
20
Impacts to Ecosystems • Freshwater habitats may be affected by higher water temperatures, resulting in algal blooms, decreased oxygen levels, and fish kills. • Salinity in tidal reaches of rivers and streams may be affected by sea level rise and changes in precipitation patterns.
21
Impacts to Ecosystems • Freshwater habitats may be affected by higher water temperatures, resulting in algal blooms, decreased oxygen levels, and fish kills. • Salinity in tidal reaches of rivers and streams may be affected by sea level rise and changes in precipitation patterns. • Shifts in species composition of forest habitats are likely to be triggered by changes in temperature. 22
Impacts to Water Resources • Higher peak temperatures in summer increases water demand for irrigation, power generation, and domestic use.
23
Impacts to Water Resources • Higher peak temperatures in summer increases water demand for irrigation, power generation, and domestic use. • Increase in heavy rain events leads to high flows that exceed capacity of water and stormwater systems.
24
Impacts to Water Resources • Higher peak temperatures in summer increases water demand for irrigation, power generation, and domestic use. • Increase in heavy rain events leads to high flows that exceed capacity of water and stormwater systems. • Increased flooding due to heavy precipitation and coastal storms can trigger pollutant transport, affect groundwater recharge areas, and worsen water quality. 25
Delaware Resources Delaware Climate Change Impact Assessment Delaware Division of Energy & Climate http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/energy/Pages/Climate.aspx
Delaware Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Delaware Coastal Programs http://de.gov/slrva
Delaware Data Sources Delaware Environmental Observing System (DEOS) http://www.deos.udel.edu/
Delaware Environmental Monitoring and Analysis Center (DEMAC) http://demac.udel.edu/
Coming Soon…… Delaware Climate Data Portal
Thank You! For more information, contact: Jennifer de Mooy Climate Adaptation Project Manager Delaware Division of Energy & Climate [email protected] 302-735-3351
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary 2015 Delaware Estuary Science & Environmental Summit January 26, 2015
Why did we develop the Delaware Climate Change Impact Assessment ? To understand and communicate the current and future impacts and risks from a changing climate. To summarize the best available science on climate change and the potential impacts for Delaware. To help Delaware’s citizens, communities and businesses prepare for and adapt to climate change.
How will the Assessment be used? • The Assessment is a scientific summary written for policy-makers, practitioners, and non-scientist readers. • State agencies, local governments, business and community leaders will find the Assessment a useful reference and resource for more in-depth planning and development of strategies to adapt to changing climate conditions. • Scientists and researchers can use climate projection data with other models and assessment tools.
Overview of the Assessment: Scientific Sources Sources of best available peer-reviewed science include: • • • • • •
Scientific literature Scientific assessments Expert interviews Steering Committee of scientists and practitioners Dr. Dan Leathers, Delaware State Climatologist (UD) Dr. Katharine Hayhoe (ATMOS Research and Consulting)
Overview of the Assessment: Two main components Delaware’s Climate • Climate Trends (observations) • Climate Projections (models)
Delaware’s Resources • Public Health • Water Resources • Agriculture • Ecosystems and Wildlife • Infrastructure
TEMPERATURE:
Trends and Projections
Delaware trend: Average temperatures are increasing
Mean Annual Temp. (F)
60
Statewide Mean Annual Temperature 1895 - 2012
58 56 54 52 50
+0.2oF per decade in every season but Fall
Source: Dr. Dan Leathers, Delaware State Climatologist
Temperature is projected to continue to rise
Larger increases projected in summer
Source: Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, et al
More hot days
Source: Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, et al
TEMPERATURE SUMMARY • Annual and seasonal temperatures are projected to increase, with slightly greater increases in summer as compared to winter. • Extreme heat days and heat waves are becoming more frequent; extreme cold, less frequent.
PRECIPITATION:
Trends and Projections
Delaware trend: Fall precipitation has increased An upward trend in autumn precipitation since 1895…. +0.27” / decade Delaware Statewide Autumn (SON) Precipitation 1895 - 2012
Precipitation (inches)
25 20 15 10 5 0
Source: Dr. Dan Leathers, Delaware State Climatologist
Annual precipitation projected to increase
Primarily due to increases in winter and fall precipitation. Source: Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, et al
More days of heavy precipitation
Source: Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, et al
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY • Annual precipitation projected to increase, mostly due to changes in winter and fall. • Heavy precipitation are expected to become more frequent as precipitation becomes more intense.
CLIMATE IMPACTS:
Species, Ecosystems, and Water Resources
Impacts to Species • Longer growing (frost-free) season may trigger changes in bloom time, migration, and reproduction – potentially causing a mismatch between plants and pollinators.
17
Impacts to Species • Longer growing (frost-free) season may trigger changes in bloom time, migration, and reproduction – potentially causing a mismatch between plants and pollinators. • Changes in precipitation will affect aquatic and wetland-dependent species, such as amphibians and ground-nesting birds.
18
Impacts to Species • Longer growing (frost-free) season may trigger changes in bloom time, migration, and reproduction – potentially causing a mismatch between plants and pollinators. • Changes in precipitation will affect aquatic and wetland-dependent species, such as amphibians and ground-nesting birds. • Wildlife species will face changes in habitat quality, timing, and availability of food sources, abundance of pests and diseases, and other stressors. 19
Impacts to Ecosystems • Freshwater habitats may be affected by higher water temperatures, resulting in algal blooms, decreased oxygen levels, and fish kills.
20
Impacts to Ecosystems • Freshwater habitats may be affected by higher water temperatures, resulting in algal blooms, decreased oxygen levels, and fish kills. • Salinity in tidal reaches of rivers and streams may be affected by sea level rise and changes in precipitation patterns.
21
Impacts to Ecosystems • Freshwater habitats may be affected by higher water temperatures, resulting in algal blooms, decreased oxygen levels, and fish kills. • Salinity in tidal reaches of rivers and streams may be affected by sea level rise and changes in precipitation patterns. • Shifts in species composition of forest habitats are likely to be triggered by changes in temperature. 22
Impacts to Water Resources • Higher peak temperatures in summer increases water demand for irrigation, power generation, and domestic use.
23
Impacts to Water Resources • Higher peak temperatures in summer increases water demand for irrigation, power generation, and domestic use. • Increase in heavy rain events leads to high flows that exceed capacity of water and stormwater systems.
24
Impacts to Water Resources • Higher peak temperatures in summer increases water demand for irrigation, power generation, and domestic use. • Increase in heavy rain events leads to high flows that exceed capacity of water and stormwater systems. • Increased flooding due to heavy precipitation and coastal storms can trigger pollutant transport, affect groundwater recharge areas, and worsen water quality. 25
Delaware Resources Delaware Climate Change Impact Assessment Delaware Division of Energy & Climate http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/energy/Pages/Climate.aspx
Delaware Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Delaware Coastal Programs http://de.gov/slrva
Delaware Data Sources Delaware Environmental Observing System (DEOS) http://www.deos.udel.edu/
Delaware Environmental Monitoring and Analysis Center (DEMAC) http://demac.udel.edu/
Coming Soon…… Delaware Climate Data Portal
Thank You! For more information, contact: Jennifer de Mooy Climate Adaptation Project Manager Delaware Division of Energy & Climate [email protected] 302-735-3351
