DEPLOYMENT OF ALTERNATIVE MOTOR FUELS
DEPLOYMENT OF ALTERNATIVE MOTOR FUELS Nils-Olof Nylund IEA Advanced Motor Fuels 8-9. October 2007
MAJOR CHALLENGES IN ROAD TRANSPORT
Local pollution –
–
Greenhouse gas emissions –
–
transport related GHG emissions are increasing energy savings is the most efficient measure to reduce GHG
Resource constraints – –
technology will solve this problem on developed markets still a problem for many years to come in emerging markets
road transport 97 % dependent on oil the price of oil is rocketing
Congestion –
at one point we have to start discussing reduction of traffic flows, spatial planning, public transport and modal shift Tabata 2005 2
IEA AMF STRATEGIC PLAN 2005-2009
“Advanced Motor Fuels” have been defined as fuels fulfilling one or more of the following criteria:
1. Low toxic emissions 2. Improved life-cycle efficiency 3. Reduced greenhouse gas emissions/utilisation of renewable energy sources 4. Enabling fuels for new propulsion systems
For the 2005-2009 Strategic Plan, two additional, partly overlapping criteria are added:
5. Fuels contributing to sustainability in transportation 6. Fuels contributing to security of supply
3
FUEL REQUIREMENTS/CHARACTERISTICS
Clean and efficient engines need high quality fuels –
– –
good combustion properties (high octane for petrol, high cetane for diesel) no lead, no sulphur good situation in e.g. Europe, Japan and North America
Enabling fuels –
–
–
–
lead-free fuel for exhaust aftertreatment petrol vehicles sulphur-free fuel for exhaust aftertreatment in diesel vehicles synthetic fuels for new combustion systems hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles
Godwin 2006
4
REASONS TO PROMOTE ALTERNATIVE FUELS
Increased security of supply
Reduced CO2 emissions
Reduced local emissions
New income possibilities for rural areas (biofuels)
5
TRANSPORTATION FUEL VOLUMES
World transport fuel consumption 1,600 Mtoe
Contribution of alternative fuels (approximate figures) – – – – – –
ethanol 18 Mtoe LPG 17 Mtoe CNG 12 Mtoe biodiesel 4 Mtoe methanol 3 Mtoe GTL 1 Mtoe
Alternative fuels in total 55 Mtoe or 3.4 %
Biofuels in total 22 Mtoe or 1.4 %
6
BIOFUELS ARE GROWING RAPIDLY EU BIOFUELS PRODUCTION IN MTOE/A 6
5
Mtoe/a
4 Bioethanol
3
Biodiesel
2
1
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Ethanol dominates worldwide, biodiesel in Europe
IFP Panorama 2007 7
MOST IMPORTANT MARKETS FOR ALTERNATIVE FUELS
Ethanol –
Biodiesel –
+100,000 vehicle countries Argentina, Pakistan, Brazil, Italy, India, Iran, Colombia, USA, China
LPG –
France and Germany
Natural gas –
Brazil & USA
rather evenly distributed
Methanol –
volumes have gone down due to the MTBE ban is USA
8
Brazilian ethanol vehicle sales (IFP Panorama 2007) World NGV numbers (IANGV)
9
WHICH ARE THE DRIVERS FOR ALTERNATIVE FUELS?
Mandates to use alternative fuels –
e.g. Europe (biofuels) and USA (fleets)
Tax incentives for alternative fuels
Subsidies for AF vehicles and infrastructure
Benefits for AF vehicles –
free parking, access to bus lanes etc.
A fuel which is cheaper than petrol and diesel –
natural gas and LPG
10
CASE SWEDEN/STOCKHOLM
Tax incentives for biofuels
Mandates for fuel retailers to provide alternative fuels (>600 stations)
Subsidy for procurement (10,000 SEK)
Reduced taxation value for company cars
Free parking for low-emission vehicles
Quittance from congestion fees for low-emission vehicles
Definition of low-emission cars: – – – –
vehicles fuelled on ethanol (E85) or methane electric vehicles petrol, diesel and hybrid vehicle emitting less than 120 g CO2/km additional requirement for low particle emissions 11
SWEDISH VEHICLE NUMBERS 2000 LD vehicles Electric 600 Hybrids 250 Fuel efficient 280 Methane 1500 Ethanol (FFV) 250 HD vehicles Ethanol Methane Electric/FC Ethanol in gasoline Ethanol in FFVs Ethanol in buses Biogas Natural gas Biodiesel in diesel Other alternative fuels
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 Share of energy
350 840 1640 890
500 530 970 2500 3500
450 620 1260 3440 7980
400 1350 2080 4500 13300
360 3300 2300 6500 21400
325 6100 7000 10500 46700
400 680 17
380 780 18
370 900 13
490 1100 9 1.7 % 0.4 % 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.6 % 0.1 %
12
EVALUATION OF FUEL ALTERNATIVES
Vehicle performance –
–
Fuel cost –
concentration of ethanol and FAME (conventional biodiesel) limited to max 10 % unless used in dedicated vehicles vehicles should comply with emission regulations also when running on alternative fuels!
fuel cost per unit of energy content
Cost for infrastructure and vehicles –
substantial e.g. for natural gas, not to mention hydrogen and fuel cells
Well-to-wheel energy efficiency
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 13
Demands on Future Fuels e n i l o gas l e s die
biod iese l LPG
l o n a h et
DME
meth anol
natura l gas hydro gen
Diversification on the fuels side is economically unacceptable Blending relating to existing fuel specification methanol, ethanol, biodiesel
Diversification on the primary energy side from crude oil to natural gas, coal and biomass z
to blend into existing fuels
Group Research Powertrain
Frank Seyfried 2005
VOLKSWAGEN AG
THE BIOFUELS DILEMMA
So far only first generation biofuels have been available –
– –
with the exception of ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil first generation biofuels do not provide significant GHG reductions feedstock for fuel production is in competition with food maintaining fuel quality only allows blending of limited amounts into petrol and diesel
OECD recently published a report on biofuels with the title “Is the cure worse than the disease?” New types of biofuels, so-called second generation biofuels are needed for enhanced GHG and vehicle performance –
BTL fuels based on solid biomass expected in the market 2010 - 2015
Sufficiency of biomass feedstock will always be a restricting factor
Sustainability criteria for biofuels are being developed 15
TRENDS IN BIOFUELS
*
“Synthetic 2nd generation fuels” HVO= hydrotreated vegetable oil (e.g. NExBTL) BTL= biomass-to-liquids
Hermann 2006
*Many experts consider biogas a viable option
COST OF FUELS
IFP Panorama 2007
CNG is typically sold at 50 % of petrol retail price
17
DEVELOPMENT OF ETHANOL PRODUCTION AND PRICE IN BRAZIL
UN/ECLAC 2007 18
BIOFUELS AND SYNFUELS ARE ENERGY INTENSIVE
WTT= well-to-tank TTW= tank-to-wheel
EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE 2007
19
REDUCTION OF GHG
OECD 2007 20
SUMMARY
Currently there is a surge for biofuels in both Europe and North America –
Natural gas as a vehicle fuel is growing in Asia and South America Depending on the fuel, deployment may be restricted either by infrastructure, vehicle compatibility or by fuel availability In Europe and North America alternative fuels have been brought to the market using tax incentives, subsidies and mandates –
ethanol dominates on the world level, biodiesel in Europe
most alternatives will increase costs
Not all current biofuels meet the requirements for sustainability, GHG reductions, cost effectiveness and vehicle performance Most experts recommend development of second-generation biofuels for enhanced GHG and vehicle performance Fuel quality requirements will continue to tighten with developments in engine and exhaust after-treatment technology 21
MAJOR CHALLENGES IN ROAD TRANSPORT
Local pollution –
–
Greenhouse gas emissions –
–
transport related GHG emissions are increasing energy savings is the most efficient measure to reduce GHG
Resource constraints – –
technology will solve this problem on developed markets still a problem for many years to come in emerging markets
road transport 97 % dependent on oil the price of oil is rocketing
Congestion –
at one point we have to start discussing reduction of traffic flows, spatial planning, public transport and modal shift Tabata 2005 2
IEA AMF STRATEGIC PLAN 2005-2009
“Advanced Motor Fuels” have been defined as fuels fulfilling one or more of the following criteria:
1. Low toxic emissions 2. Improved life-cycle efficiency 3. Reduced greenhouse gas emissions/utilisation of renewable energy sources 4. Enabling fuels for new propulsion systems
For the 2005-2009 Strategic Plan, two additional, partly overlapping criteria are added:
5. Fuels contributing to sustainability in transportation 6. Fuels contributing to security of supply
3
FUEL REQUIREMENTS/CHARACTERISTICS
Clean and efficient engines need high quality fuels –
– –
good combustion properties (high octane for petrol, high cetane for diesel) no lead, no sulphur good situation in e.g. Europe, Japan and North America
Enabling fuels –
–
–
–
lead-free fuel for exhaust aftertreatment petrol vehicles sulphur-free fuel for exhaust aftertreatment in diesel vehicles synthetic fuels for new combustion systems hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles
Godwin 2006
4
REASONS TO PROMOTE ALTERNATIVE FUELS
Increased security of supply
Reduced CO2 emissions
Reduced local emissions
New income possibilities for rural areas (biofuels)
5
TRANSPORTATION FUEL VOLUMES
World transport fuel consumption 1,600 Mtoe
Contribution of alternative fuels (approximate figures) – – – – – –
ethanol 18 Mtoe LPG 17 Mtoe CNG 12 Mtoe biodiesel 4 Mtoe methanol 3 Mtoe GTL 1 Mtoe
Alternative fuels in total 55 Mtoe or 3.4 %
Biofuels in total 22 Mtoe or 1.4 %
6
BIOFUELS ARE GROWING RAPIDLY EU BIOFUELS PRODUCTION IN MTOE/A 6
5
Mtoe/a
4 Bioethanol
3
Biodiesel
2
1
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Ethanol dominates worldwide, biodiesel in Europe
IFP Panorama 2007 7
MOST IMPORTANT MARKETS FOR ALTERNATIVE FUELS
Ethanol –
Biodiesel –
+100,000 vehicle countries Argentina, Pakistan, Brazil, Italy, India, Iran, Colombia, USA, China
LPG –
France and Germany
Natural gas –
Brazil & USA
rather evenly distributed
Methanol –
volumes have gone down due to the MTBE ban is USA
8
Brazilian ethanol vehicle sales (IFP Panorama 2007) World NGV numbers (IANGV)
9
WHICH ARE THE DRIVERS FOR ALTERNATIVE FUELS?
Mandates to use alternative fuels –
e.g. Europe (biofuels) and USA (fleets)
Tax incentives for alternative fuels
Subsidies for AF vehicles and infrastructure
Benefits for AF vehicles –
free parking, access to bus lanes etc.
A fuel which is cheaper than petrol and diesel –
natural gas and LPG
10
CASE SWEDEN/STOCKHOLM
Tax incentives for biofuels
Mandates for fuel retailers to provide alternative fuels (>600 stations)
Subsidy for procurement (10,000 SEK)
Reduced taxation value for company cars
Free parking for low-emission vehicles
Quittance from congestion fees for low-emission vehicles
Definition of low-emission cars: – – – –
vehicles fuelled on ethanol (E85) or methane electric vehicles petrol, diesel and hybrid vehicle emitting less than 120 g CO2/km additional requirement for low particle emissions 11
SWEDISH VEHICLE NUMBERS 2000 LD vehicles Electric 600 Hybrids 250 Fuel efficient 280 Methane 1500 Ethanol (FFV) 250 HD vehicles Ethanol Methane Electric/FC Ethanol in gasoline Ethanol in FFVs Ethanol in buses Biogas Natural gas Biodiesel in diesel Other alternative fuels
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 Share of energy
350 840 1640 890
500 530 970 2500 3500
450 620 1260 3440 7980
400 1350 2080 4500 13300
360 3300 2300 6500 21400
325 6100 7000 10500 46700
400 680 17
380 780 18
370 900 13
490 1100 9 1.7 % 0.4 % 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.6 % 0.1 %
12
EVALUATION OF FUEL ALTERNATIVES
Vehicle performance –
–
Fuel cost –
concentration of ethanol and FAME (conventional biodiesel) limited to max 10 % unless used in dedicated vehicles vehicles should comply with emission regulations also when running on alternative fuels!
fuel cost per unit of energy content
Cost for infrastructure and vehicles –
substantial e.g. for natural gas, not to mention hydrogen and fuel cells
Well-to-wheel energy efficiency
Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions 13
Demands on Future Fuels e n i l o gas l e s die
biod iese l LPG
l o n a h et
DME
meth anol
natura l gas hydro gen
Diversification on the fuels side is economically unacceptable Blending relating to existing fuel specification methanol, ethanol, biodiesel
Diversification on the primary energy side from crude oil to natural gas, coal and biomass z
to blend into existing fuels
Group Research Powertrain
Frank Seyfried 2005
VOLKSWAGEN AG
THE BIOFUELS DILEMMA
So far only first generation biofuels have been available –
– –
with the exception of ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil first generation biofuels do not provide significant GHG reductions feedstock for fuel production is in competition with food maintaining fuel quality only allows blending of limited amounts into petrol and diesel
OECD recently published a report on biofuels with the title “Is the cure worse than the disease?” New types of biofuels, so-called second generation biofuels are needed for enhanced GHG and vehicle performance –
BTL fuels based on solid biomass expected in the market 2010 - 2015
Sufficiency of biomass feedstock will always be a restricting factor
Sustainability criteria for biofuels are being developed 15
TRENDS IN BIOFUELS
*
“Synthetic 2nd generation fuels” HVO= hydrotreated vegetable oil (e.g. NExBTL) BTL= biomass-to-liquids
Hermann 2006
*Many experts consider biogas a viable option
COST OF FUELS
IFP Panorama 2007
CNG is typically sold at 50 % of petrol retail price
17
DEVELOPMENT OF ETHANOL PRODUCTION AND PRICE IN BRAZIL
UN/ECLAC 2007 18
BIOFUELS AND SYNFUELS ARE ENERGY INTENSIVE
WTT= well-to-tank TTW= tank-to-wheel
EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE 2007
19
REDUCTION OF GHG
OECD 2007 20
SUMMARY
Currently there is a surge for biofuels in both Europe and North America –
Natural gas as a vehicle fuel is growing in Asia and South America Depending on the fuel, deployment may be restricted either by infrastructure, vehicle compatibility or by fuel availability In Europe and North America alternative fuels have been brought to the market using tax incentives, subsidies and mandates –
ethanol dominates on the world level, biodiesel in Europe
most alternatives will increase costs
Not all current biofuels meet the requirements for sustainability, GHG reductions, cost effectiveness and vehicle performance Most experts recommend development of second-generation biofuels for enhanced GHG and vehicle performance Fuel quality requirements will continue to tighten with developments in engine and exhaust after-treatment technology 21
