Dunstan Reducing cost and energy
Green Infrastructure Plan Chris Dunstan Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures
Reducing Costs and Emissions through Distributed Energy: “Meeting NSW Electricity Needs in a Carbon Constrained World”
Chris Dunstan Green Infrastructure Master Plan Briefing 19th August 2010
This study undertaken for the:
CSIRO Intelligent Grid Research Program
Collaborative research between CSIRO and University Sector
3 years, 5 universities, $8.6 million
Aim: to support major greenhouse gas emission reduction through greater use of distributed energy within smarter electricity networks.
What is Distributed Energy? Peak Load Management Time of Use tariffs Interruptible loads Electric to Gas Hot Water Biomass Generation Small Gas Generation Solar Photovoltaics Standby Generation
Distributed Generation
Ice Storage Battery Storage / EVs Power factor correction
Gas Chillers Behaviour change
Co/Trigeneration
Efficient motors & chillers Efficient Lighting Efficient showerheads Efficiency Retrofits
Energy Efficiency
NSW case study: Key questions 1. What are NSW power needs to 2020? •
Base load (total energy use)
•
Peak load (demand at peak times)
2. How can we best meet these needs?
Baseload vs Peak load Demand for Power- Typical NSW winter day 14000
Peak Load
12000 10000
Average Load
MW
8000 6000 4000
“Base”
2000 0
Time
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? FORECASTS
105,000
Transgrid 2007 (Owen)
95,000 90,000
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2007 estimate (Owen)
2020
2018
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000
2016
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
75,000
2014
80,000
2012
85,000
2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? Shortfall (Owen Inquiry 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
FORECASTS Transgrid 2007 (Owen)
95,000 90,000
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2007 estimate (Owen)
2020
2018
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000
2016
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
75,000
2014
80,000
2012
85,000
2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? Shortfall (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
FORECASTS Transgrid 2007 (Owen) Transgrid 2008 Transgrid 2010 Transgrid 2009
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2008 revision ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2007 estimate (Owen)
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000
2020
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
75,000
2018
80,000
2016
85,000
2014
90,000
2012
95,000
2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? Shortfall (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
Shortfall (Transgrid 2008) Starts 2017 3,800 GWh by 2020
Transgrid 2010
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2008 revision
95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000
2012
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
75,000
2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? Shortfall (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
Shortfall (Transgrid 2008) Starts 2017 3,800 GWh by 2020
Shortfall (Transgrid 2009) Starts 2019 2,510 GWh at 2020
95,000
Transgrid 2010
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2008 revision
90,000 85,000 80,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000
2012
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
75,000
2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
What if we include distributed & renewable energy? SHORTFALL (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2008) Starts 2017 3,800 GWh by 2020
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2010) Starts 2019 2,510 GWh at 2020
SUPPLY: 2008 revision + Snowy + RET
95,000 90,000
SURPLUS: 3900 GWh at 2020 Transgrid 2008 + efficiency
85,000 80,000 75,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000 2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
What if we include distributed & renewable energy? SHORTFALL (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2008) Starts 2017 3,800 GWh by 2020
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2010) Starts 2019 2,510 GWh at 2020
SURPLUS: (Transgrid 2008 + efficiency) 3,900 GWh at 2020
SUPPLY: 2008 revision + Snowy + RET
95,000 90,000
Transgrid 2008 + efficiency
85,000
Transgrid 2008 + efficiency + co/trigeneration
80,000 75,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000 2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
What if we include distributed & renewable energy? SHORTFALL (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2008) Starts 2017 3,800 GWh by 2020
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2010) Starts 2019 2,510 GWh at 2020
SURPLUS: (Transgrid 2008 + efficiency) 3,900 GWh at 2020
SUPPLY: 2008 revision + Snowy + RET
95,000 90,000
SURPLUS: 9,700 GWh at 2020 Transgrid 2008 + efficiency + co/trigeneration
85,000 80,000 75,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000 2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? - No Shortfall at 2020 11,600 GWh
Owen, using Transgrid 2007
ANNUAL REVISIONS IN ENERGY FORECASTS (Transgrid annual planning reports, supply projections)
2013 2017
Shortfall at 2020 2019 2,510 GWh
Transgrid 2009
NO SHORTFALL UNTIL 2019
2020
2018
2016
2014
Surplus at 2020 9,700 GWh
2012
Transgrid 2008 + Snowy + RET + efficiency + co/trigeneration
2010
Surplus at 2020 3,900 GWh
2008
Transgrid 2008 + Snowy + RET + efficiency
2006
2004
2002
INCLUSION OF DISTRIBUTED ENERGY (energy efficiency, cogeneration, renewable energy, ) SIGNIFICANT SURPLUS AT 2020
2000
Shortfall at 2020 3,800 GWh
Transgrid 2008
Baseload vs Peak load Demand for Power- Typical NSW winter day 14000
Peak Load
12000 10000
Average Load
MW
8000 6000 4000
“Base”
2000 0
Time
Does NSW need more peak power? - Yes 20,000
- and can distributed energy meet the shortfall?
18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000
Existing or planned capacity Peak power capacity needed for reliability
Distributed Energy Options Peak load management Cogeneration Energy efficiency
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
12,000
2010
13,000 2009
CAPACITY (MW)
19,000
What about the cost?
$35 $33
90
87.6
86.4
85.4
$31 Billion $ 2009 – 2020
85
84.7 79.2
80
$29 $27
70
$25
65
$23
60
$21
55
$19
50
$17
45
$15
Coal
Gas
Cogeneration & Peak Load Managment
Existing supply - operational cost New supply - amortized capital cost Million tonnes CO2 in 2020
Energy efficiency & PLM
Combined DE + retire 900 MW coal
Network capital - amortized cost New supply - operational cost
40
Emissions (Mt CO2 per year)
Coal or Gas more costly and polluting than each Distributed Energy Scenario
Network Investment: >$45 Billion by 2015 Bigger (and sooner) than National Broadband Network N etw ork C apital Expenditure (>$9b p.a.)
$m 4 ,0 0 0 3 ,5 0 0
N SW
3 ,0 0 0
Q ld (draft)
2 ,5 0 0 2 ,0 0 0
V ic (prop.)
1 ,5 0 0
WA
1 ,0 0 0 500
SA (draft)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2 0 11
2012
2013
2014
2015
Network Capacity Required Sydney by 2012
Avail. Capacity
>15MVA
< -10MVA
NSW case study: Summary of results Providing new baseload power stations is not an urgent issue in NSW BUT there ARE urgent issues in NSW energy policy: • addressing peak demand growth • ensuring efficient network investment • moderating rapidly rising power prices and bills • limiting greenhouse gas emissions A mix of Distributed Energy is the best way to manage these issues … and should be at the core of our energy planning
For more information, see the Report :
“Meeting NSW Electricity Needs in a Carbon Constrained World” available at: www.igrid.net.au [email protected] [email protected] Tel: (02) 9514 4950
Reducing Costs and Emissions through Distributed Energy: “Meeting NSW Electricity Needs in a Carbon Constrained World”
Chris Dunstan Green Infrastructure Master Plan Briefing 19th August 2010
This study undertaken for the:
CSIRO Intelligent Grid Research Program
Collaborative research between CSIRO and University Sector
3 years, 5 universities, $8.6 million
Aim: to support major greenhouse gas emission reduction through greater use of distributed energy within smarter electricity networks.
What is Distributed Energy? Peak Load Management Time of Use tariffs Interruptible loads Electric to Gas Hot Water Biomass Generation Small Gas Generation Solar Photovoltaics Standby Generation
Distributed Generation
Ice Storage Battery Storage / EVs Power factor correction
Gas Chillers Behaviour change
Co/Trigeneration
Efficient motors & chillers Efficient Lighting Efficient showerheads Efficiency Retrofits
Energy Efficiency
NSW case study: Key questions 1. What are NSW power needs to 2020? •
Base load (total energy use)
•
Peak load (demand at peak times)
2. How can we best meet these needs?
Baseload vs Peak load Demand for Power- Typical NSW winter day 14000
Peak Load
12000 10000
Average Load
MW
8000 6000 4000
“Base”
2000 0
Time
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? FORECASTS
105,000
Transgrid 2007 (Owen)
95,000 90,000
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2007 estimate (Owen)
2020
2018
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000
2016
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
75,000
2014
80,000
2012
85,000
2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? Shortfall (Owen Inquiry 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
FORECASTS Transgrid 2007 (Owen)
95,000 90,000
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2007 estimate (Owen)
2020
2018
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000
2016
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
75,000
2014
80,000
2012
85,000
2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? Shortfall (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
FORECASTS Transgrid 2007 (Owen) Transgrid 2008 Transgrid 2010 Transgrid 2009
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2008 revision ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2007 estimate (Owen)
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000
2020
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
75,000
2018
80,000
2016
85,000
2014
90,000
2012
95,000
2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? Shortfall (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
Shortfall (Transgrid 2008) Starts 2017 3,800 GWh by 2020
Transgrid 2010
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2008 revision
95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000
2012
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
75,000
2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? Shortfall (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
Shortfall (Transgrid 2008) Starts 2017 3,800 GWh by 2020
Shortfall (Transgrid 2009) Starts 2019 2,510 GWh at 2020
95,000
Transgrid 2010
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY: 2008 revision
90,000 85,000 80,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000
2012
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
75,000
2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
What if we include distributed & renewable energy? SHORTFALL (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2008) Starts 2017 3,800 GWh by 2020
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2010) Starts 2019 2,510 GWh at 2020
SUPPLY: 2008 revision + Snowy + RET
95,000 90,000
SURPLUS: 3900 GWh at 2020 Transgrid 2008 + efficiency
85,000 80,000 75,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000 2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
What if we include distributed & renewable energy? SHORTFALL (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2008) Starts 2017 3,800 GWh by 2020
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2010) Starts 2019 2,510 GWh at 2020
SURPLUS: (Transgrid 2008 + efficiency) 3,900 GWh at 2020
SUPPLY: 2008 revision + Snowy + RET
95,000 90,000
Transgrid 2008 + efficiency
85,000
Transgrid 2008 + efficiency + co/trigeneration
80,000 75,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000 2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
What if we include distributed & renewable energy? SHORTFALL (Owen 2007) Starts 2013 11,600 GWh by 2020
105,000
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2008) Starts 2017 3,800 GWh by 2020
SHORTFALL (Transgrid 2010) Starts 2019 2,510 GWh at 2020
SURPLUS: (Transgrid 2008 + efficiency) 3,900 GWh at 2020
SUPPLY: 2008 revision + Snowy + RET
95,000 90,000
SURPLUS: 9,700 GWh at 2020 Transgrid 2008 + efficiency + co/trigeneration
85,000 80,000 75,000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2002
65,000
2004
Actual
70,000 2000
Electricity - GWh
100,000
Do we need more base load energy supply in NSW? - No Shortfall at 2020 11,600 GWh
Owen, using Transgrid 2007
ANNUAL REVISIONS IN ENERGY FORECASTS (Transgrid annual planning reports, supply projections)
2013 2017
Shortfall at 2020 2019 2,510 GWh
Transgrid 2009
NO SHORTFALL UNTIL 2019
2020
2018
2016
2014
Surplus at 2020 9,700 GWh
2012
Transgrid 2008 + Snowy + RET + efficiency + co/trigeneration
2010
Surplus at 2020 3,900 GWh
2008
Transgrid 2008 + Snowy + RET + efficiency
2006
2004
2002
INCLUSION OF DISTRIBUTED ENERGY (energy efficiency, cogeneration, renewable energy, ) SIGNIFICANT SURPLUS AT 2020
2000
Shortfall at 2020 3,800 GWh
Transgrid 2008
Baseload vs Peak load Demand for Power- Typical NSW winter day 14000
Peak Load
12000 10000
Average Load
MW
8000 6000 4000
“Base”
2000 0
Time
Does NSW need more peak power? - Yes 20,000
- and can distributed energy meet the shortfall?
18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000
Existing or planned capacity Peak power capacity needed for reliability
Distributed Energy Options Peak load management Cogeneration Energy efficiency
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
12,000
2010
13,000 2009
CAPACITY (MW)
19,000
What about the cost?
$35 $33
90
87.6
86.4
85.4
$31 Billion $ 2009 – 2020
85
84.7 79.2
80
$29 $27
70
$25
65
$23
60
$21
55
$19
50
$17
45
$15
Coal
Gas
Cogeneration & Peak Load Managment
Existing supply - operational cost New supply - amortized capital cost Million tonnes CO2 in 2020
Energy efficiency & PLM
Combined DE + retire 900 MW coal
Network capital - amortized cost New supply - operational cost
40
Emissions (Mt CO2 per year)
Coal or Gas more costly and polluting than each Distributed Energy Scenario
Network Investment: >$45 Billion by 2015 Bigger (and sooner) than National Broadband Network N etw ork C apital Expenditure (>$9b p.a.)
$m 4 ,0 0 0 3 ,5 0 0
N SW
3 ,0 0 0
Q ld (draft)
2 ,5 0 0 2 ,0 0 0
V ic (prop.)
1 ,5 0 0
WA
1 ,0 0 0 500
SA (draft)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2 0 11
2012
2013
2014
2015
Network Capacity Required Sydney by 2012
Avail. Capacity
>15MVA
< -10MVA
NSW case study: Summary of results Providing new baseload power stations is not an urgent issue in NSW BUT there ARE urgent issues in NSW energy policy: • addressing peak demand growth • ensuring efficient network investment • moderating rapidly rising power prices and bills • limiting greenhouse gas emissions A mix of Distributed Energy is the best way to manage these issues … and should be at the core of our energy planning
For more information, see the Report :
“Meeting NSW Electricity Needs in a Carbon Constrained World” available at: www.igrid.net.au [email protected] [email protected] Tel: (02) 9514 4950
