e Power of Predictive Marketing
The Power of Predictive Marketing
About Playnomics Founded in 2009 with Offices in San Francisco and New York Pioneered Prediction and Data mining in Games - won GDC Gamesbeat 2010 Focused on how and why people play Funded by FirstMark Capital, Vanedge Capital, xSeed Ventures, Accelerator Ventures and TriplePoint Capital Over 100M+ Player Profiles and 30M+ Monthly Active Users across 100s of games
2
What’s the Point of Predictive Marketing? Campaign End
Spend Per Player
A B Control
A
B
$106.19
$121.80
$42.63
Control 3
Free To Play Games Have a Big Problem Getting Players
• Crowded Marketplaces • High Acquisition
CostsIntensive UA Efforts
Keeping Players
• Most 1st-Time Players
LeaveLow First Month RetentionOngoing Churn Mgmt
Monetizing Payers
• Multiple Sessions to
MonetizeLow % of Audience Pays
• Freemium & Low App Pricing • Distribution Platform Taxes
4
Grim and Grimmer Playnomics Q1 Report We analyzed new players who joined a game in the first 2 weeks of 2013 We tracked them over 3 months Of all the players, only 0.77% spent any money!
OF THOSE 0.77%: Percentage of Total Spend Accounted for by Top 1%: 32.68% Percentage of Total Spend Accounted for by Top 20%: 90.50% Percentage of Total Spend Accounted for by Top 50%: 98.43% Percentage of Total Spend Accounted for by Top 60%: 99.09% Put another way - 90% of the spend came from 0.15%!
Why Does This Happen?
Spending for Installs
Why Does This Happen?
Analytics = Analysis. Lots of it. Then What?
One Size Fits All?
Players Are People Too - Unique and Different
Predicted LTV!
Psychographics!
Incentives!
Competitor
Scientist
Gifts
Viral Invites
Simple Game, right?
Not So Simple Motivations Collectors
Socialites
Competitors
Big Difference in Outcomes From Marketing Competitors
Control
Players Are Different! Millions of users, all want something different
Predictive Marketing - The Right Message for the Right Person at the Right Time
When Players Are Valuable, Nurture Them
Segment Your Audience Monetize Your Non-Performing Players through Third Party Ads
Valuable (Right) Person? Entry Funnel
Engaged
Location
Active Today
D30 Active
D1, D7, D14, D30 D1, D7, D14, D30 Monetized
Newly EngagedHighly Engaged
North AmericaEuropeMENA APACLatin America
D1, D7, D14, D30 NonMonetized
Non-Engaged
D14, D30 Lapsed
VIP
Milestones
Predictive
Recently Monetized
Tutorial Started/ Complete Reached Level X
At Risk Engaged
Highly Engaged MonetizedHigh Monetizer Highly ViralRecently ViralInfluencer Non-Monetizing
X% Level Complete Achievement Gained Collection Incomplete
At Risk Monetizer Likely to ChurnLikely EngagerLikely MonetizerLikely Viral
Can Also Be Personality Based
Right Message = Hard New Segments
Segment
Early Play SegmentsEngagement M onetizationVIPLocationMil estonesPredictive
Message Type Personalized ContentTips & TricksDid-YouKnowsInvite FriendsRecognitionRewar ds & Free ItemsDiscount Items Advertising
Channels
In-Game MessagingOut-ofGame MessagingPushEmailRetarg etingOpen Web Targeting
Right Time = Hard
Early Retention
/
Monetized First 3 Days
D7 Non-Monetized
First 7 Days
Recently Monetized
7-14 Days
Dolphin
30 Day Active
Milestones
/
/
Whale
Non-Spenders Tutorial Started
D7
Tutorial Complete
D14, Non-Monetized
Level 5 Reached
Cross Promotion or Third Party Ad Ad Clickers
Achievement X Complete
/
Playnomics Makes it Easy
First, The Right Person
Target Like-Minded Players
Targets Galore
Even More Targets
Then, the Right Message
Even Behavioral Push
Do it Again and Again - Adapt
At Exactly The Right Time
Message your First D7 players with Tips & Tricks or Power-Ups to help them motivate and advance
Retarget Early Players To Gain Mindshare
Send targeted display ads to you FIRST D3 and FIRST D7 Monetized players out-ofgame
Reward Loyal Players To Influence Engagement
Reward your HIGHLY ENGAGED players with exclusive items to encourage their loyalty and retention
Nurture Whales Encourage RECENT MONETIZER to monetize again with special offers
Show Ads to All Else
Case Study - Increase Early Spend Campaign Overview
Insights
Online and Mobile Gaming Company targeted players within First 3-7 Days with two personalized promotions - “50K Free Chips” and “100K Free Chips” - to encourage player retention
Campaign was successful in increasing retention and monetizationThe 50K Free Chip offer outperformed the 100K Free Chip offer
Results
Compared to Control Group
+5.3x
CLICK-THRU-RATE
+28%
DOUBLE
CUMULATIVE SPEND
+23%
AVG. TOTAL HRS PLAYED AVG. RETURN RATE
Big Big Big Impact on Spend Campaign End
Spend Per Player
A B Control
A
B
$106.19
$121.80
$42.63
Control
33
The Good (Free) Stuff: Predicting Churn
More Good (Free) Stuff: Predicting Revenue at Risk
We Believe Predictive Marketing Is The Answer • Free to play games have had a big monetization problem for FIVE YEARS • Spending money on the wrong users and looking at endless charts hasn’t worked • You have to get value out of each player continuously to have a profitable game • Millions of players, all with their own unique value - it can’t be done manually • Instead, it has to be done continuously, and it has to be AUTOMATIC
Thanks www.playnomics.com Chethan Ramachandran CEO - Playnomics [email protected]
Case Study: Monetize Early Players Performance Compared to Control Group
Campaign Overview Improve monetization by targeting the never monetized first 3-7 days segment with a promotional campaign 50,000 free coins
+4.0x ARPPU
+302% CTR
+132%
PAYING CONVERSION
Takeaways • Strong Increase of Monetizers • Higher ARPPU • Improved Engagement Score and Return Rate
38
Case Study: Increase Player Retention Performance Compared to Control Group
Campaign Overview Encourage longer gameplay by targeting players in the First 7Days of their lifecycle with personalized promotions
+2.4x
CLICK-THRU-RATE
+30.3%
PAYING CLICKER CONVERSION
+2x
TOTAL HOURS PLAYED / DAU
+3x ARPPU
Takeaways • Longer Game Sessions • Higher ARPPU & Conversion Rates • Strong Correlation Between Monetization and Hours Played
39
Case Study: Bring Monetizers Back to Game Performance Compared to Control Group
Campaign Overview Retain monetizers and recapture lapsed players by sending targeted incentives to at risk monetizers and players that have left game
25K
PLAYERS RESCUED
+218% ROI
Takeaways • Higher Advertising Revenue
Resulted from Longer Play Sessions
• PlayRM Successfully Found and Recaptured Lapsed Players
40
Case Study #2 - Increase Longer Play Results
Compared to Control Group
Campaign Overview Social Game targeted players in the First 7-Days of their lifecycle with personalized promotions to encourage longer gameplay
+2.4x
CLICK-THRU-RATE
+30.3%
PAYING CONVERSION
Insights Campaign was successful in the total hours played The campaign also included monetization metrics - number of paying players and ARPPU
+1.4x
TTL HRS PLAYED/DAU
+1.6x ARPPU
About Playnomics Founded in 2009 with Offices in San Francisco and New York Pioneered Prediction and Data mining in Games - won GDC Gamesbeat 2010 Focused on how and why people play Funded by FirstMark Capital, Vanedge Capital, xSeed Ventures, Accelerator Ventures and TriplePoint Capital Over 100M+ Player Profiles and 30M+ Monthly Active Users across 100s of games
2
What’s the Point of Predictive Marketing? Campaign End
Spend Per Player
A B Control
A
B
$106.19
$121.80
$42.63
Control 3
Free To Play Games Have a Big Problem Getting Players
• Crowded Marketplaces • High Acquisition
CostsIntensive UA Efforts
Keeping Players
• Most 1st-Time Players
LeaveLow First Month RetentionOngoing Churn Mgmt
Monetizing Payers
• Multiple Sessions to
MonetizeLow % of Audience Pays
• Freemium & Low App Pricing • Distribution Platform Taxes
4
Grim and Grimmer Playnomics Q1 Report We analyzed new players who joined a game in the first 2 weeks of 2013 We tracked them over 3 months Of all the players, only 0.77% spent any money!
OF THOSE 0.77%: Percentage of Total Spend Accounted for by Top 1%: 32.68% Percentage of Total Spend Accounted for by Top 20%: 90.50% Percentage of Total Spend Accounted for by Top 50%: 98.43% Percentage of Total Spend Accounted for by Top 60%: 99.09% Put another way - 90% of the spend came from 0.15%!
Why Does This Happen?
Spending for Installs
Why Does This Happen?
Analytics = Analysis. Lots of it. Then What?
One Size Fits All?
Players Are People Too - Unique and Different
Predicted LTV!
Psychographics!
Incentives!
Competitor
Scientist
Gifts
Viral Invites
Simple Game, right?
Not So Simple Motivations Collectors
Socialites
Competitors
Big Difference in Outcomes From Marketing Competitors
Control
Players Are Different! Millions of users, all want something different
Predictive Marketing - The Right Message for the Right Person at the Right Time
When Players Are Valuable, Nurture Them
Segment Your Audience Monetize Your Non-Performing Players through Third Party Ads
Valuable (Right) Person? Entry Funnel
Engaged
Location
Active Today
D30 Active
D1, D7, D14, D30 D1, D7, D14, D30 Monetized
Newly EngagedHighly Engaged
North AmericaEuropeMENA APACLatin America
D1, D7, D14, D30 NonMonetized
Non-Engaged
D14, D30 Lapsed
VIP
Milestones
Predictive
Recently Monetized
Tutorial Started/ Complete Reached Level X
At Risk Engaged
Highly Engaged MonetizedHigh Monetizer Highly ViralRecently ViralInfluencer Non-Monetizing
X% Level Complete Achievement Gained Collection Incomplete
At Risk Monetizer Likely to ChurnLikely EngagerLikely MonetizerLikely Viral
Can Also Be Personality Based
Right Message = Hard New Segments
Segment
Early Play SegmentsEngagement M onetizationVIPLocationMil estonesPredictive
Message Type Personalized ContentTips & TricksDid-YouKnowsInvite FriendsRecognitionRewar ds & Free ItemsDiscount Items Advertising
Channels
In-Game MessagingOut-ofGame MessagingPushEmailRetarg etingOpen Web Targeting
Right Time = Hard
Early Retention
/
Monetized First 3 Days
D7 Non-Monetized
First 7 Days
Recently Monetized
7-14 Days
Dolphin
30 Day Active
Milestones
/
/
Whale
Non-Spenders Tutorial Started
D7
Tutorial Complete
D14, Non-Monetized
Level 5 Reached
Cross Promotion or Third Party Ad Ad Clickers
Achievement X Complete
/
Playnomics Makes it Easy
First, The Right Person
Target Like-Minded Players
Targets Galore
Even More Targets
Then, the Right Message
Even Behavioral Push
Do it Again and Again - Adapt
At Exactly The Right Time
Message your First D7 players with Tips & Tricks or Power-Ups to help them motivate and advance
Retarget Early Players To Gain Mindshare
Send targeted display ads to you FIRST D3 and FIRST D7 Monetized players out-ofgame
Reward Loyal Players To Influence Engagement
Reward your HIGHLY ENGAGED players with exclusive items to encourage their loyalty and retention
Nurture Whales Encourage RECENT MONETIZER to monetize again with special offers
Show Ads to All Else
Case Study - Increase Early Spend Campaign Overview
Insights
Online and Mobile Gaming Company targeted players within First 3-7 Days with two personalized promotions - “50K Free Chips” and “100K Free Chips” - to encourage player retention
Campaign was successful in increasing retention and monetizationThe 50K Free Chip offer outperformed the 100K Free Chip offer
Results
Compared to Control Group
+5.3x
CLICK-THRU-RATE
+28%
DOUBLE
CUMULATIVE SPEND
+23%
AVG. TOTAL HRS PLAYED AVG. RETURN RATE
Big Big Big Impact on Spend Campaign End
Spend Per Player
A B Control
A
B
$106.19
$121.80
$42.63
Control
33
The Good (Free) Stuff: Predicting Churn
More Good (Free) Stuff: Predicting Revenue at Risk
We Believe Predictive Marketing Is The Answer • Free to play games have had a big monetization problem for FIVE YEARS • Spending money on the wrong users and looking at endless charts hasn’t worked • You have to get value out of each player continuously to have a profitable game • Millions of players, all with their own unique value - it can’t be done manually • Instead, it has to be done continuously, and it has to be AUTOMATIC
Thanks www.playnomics.com Chethan Ramachandran CEO - Playnomics [email protected]
Case Study: Monetize Early Players Performance Compared to Control Group
Campaign Overview Improve monetization by targeting the never monetized first 3-7 days segment with a promotional campaign 50,000 free coins
+4.0x ARPPU
+302% CTR
+132%
PAYING CONVERSION
Takeaways • Strong Increase of Monetizers • Higher ARPPU • Improved Engagement Score and Return Rate
38
Case Study: Increase Player Retention Performance Compared to Control Group
Campaign Overview Encourage longer gameplay by targeting players in the First 7Days of their lifecycle with personalized promotions
+2.4x
CLICK-THRU-RATE
+30.3%
PAYING CLICKER CONVERSION
+2x
TOTAL HOURS PLAYED / DAU
+3x ARPPU
Takeaways • Longer Game Sessions • Higher ARPPU & Conversion Rates • Strong Correlation Between Monetization and Hours Played
39
Case Study: Bring Monetizers Back to Game Performance Compared to Control Group
Campaign Overview Retain monetizers and recapture lapsed players by sending targeted incentives to at risk monetizers and players that have left game
25K
PLAYERS RESCUED
+218% ROI
Takeaways • Higher Advertising Revenue
Resulted from Longer Play Sessions
• PlayRM Successfully Found and Recaptured Lapsed Players
40
Case Study #2 - Increase Longer Play Results
Compared to Control Group
Campaign Overview Social Game targeted players in the First 7-Days of their lifecycle with personalized promotions to encourage longer gameplay
+2.4x
CLICK-THRU-RATE
+30.3%
PAYING CONVERSION
Insights Campaign was successful in the total hours played The campaign also included monetization metrics - number of paying players and ARPPU
+1.4x
TTL HRS PLAYED/DAU
+1.6x ARPPU
