Early Action & Climate Change
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+ + + + +
+
CSIS Risk Management Roundtable
Scientific Uncertainty and Climate Change Risk Management Jay Gulledge, PhD Senior Scientist and Program Director Pew Center on Global Climate Change & Non-resident Senior Fellow Center for a New American Security
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Climate Change: A National Security Issue
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• UK Ministry of Defense (2006) The DCDC strategic global trends programme, 2007-2036. • CNA (2007) National Security and the Threat of Climate Change
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• NIC (2008) NIA on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030.
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• NIC (2008) Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World • DNI (2010) Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Comm.
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• White House (2010) National Security Strategy • DOD (2010) Quadrennial Defense Review
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• Joint Forces Command (2010) Joint Operating Environment • Joint Chiefs of Staff (2011) National Military Strategy of the U.S.
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Climate Change: A National Security Issue
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• UK Ministry of Defense (2006) The DCDC strategic global trends Competition in and governance of the Arctic programme, 2007-2036.
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• CNA (2007) conflict National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Intrastate over natural resources • CFR (2007) Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda
Increased for Action frequency of weather disasters
Water supply volatility in Security: glacier-fed regions • RUSI (2008) Delivering Climate International Responses to a Climate Changed World
Rising and volatile food prices +
• NIC (2008) NIA on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to damage 2030. Storm/tsunami on deltas/small islands • NIC (2008) Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World More permanently displaced persons
+
• DOD (2010) Quadrennial Defense Review
Heightened resentment toward West/USA
• U.S. Joint Forces Command (2010) Joint Operating Environment
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+
+ +
Risk Management/Reduction “Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation…” IPCC 2007
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Risk: Severity of outcome x probability Risk management: Actions to reduce probability (mitigation) Actions to reduce potential severity (adaptation)
+ + + + +
+
Uncertainty and Risk • Uncertainty tempts people to disregard risk • Risk = Probability X Severity • Risk can be significant when uncertainty is large • Risk can be high when probability is low (house fire) Uncertainty Range
Probability
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Projected Severity of Outcome
+ + + + +
+
Uncertainty and Risk • Uncertainty tempts people to disregard risk • Risk = Probability X Severity • Risk can be significant when uncertainty is large • Risk can be high when probability is low (house fire) Uncertainty Range
Probability
+
Scientific uncertainty is Information.
Uncertainty informs risk management. Projected Severity of Outcome
+
+
Uncertainty and Risk: Climate Sensitivity IPCC 2007
+ + + + Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity ( C)
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+
Impacts Risk for Doubled CO2 (560 ppm) Warming
+ 0 °C Food
1
2
3
4
5
6
Falling crop yields in developing regions first, then developed regions later
+ Water
+
Mountain glaciers disappear; Decreased water in some areas
Ecosystems Extensive damage to coral reefs
Many more areas suffer from low water availability
Sea level rise threatens major cities
Rising numbers of species extinctions
+
Extreme Weather
Rising intensity of storms, wildfires, droughts, floods, heatwaves
Risk of Irreversible + or Abrupt Changes
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Adapted from IPCC 2007
Rising risk of dangerous positive feedbacks, Rapid SLR and collapse of Atlantic conveyor
Best estimate ~40% Chance
~5% ~10% Chance Chance
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Reduce Uncertainty & Risk: Mitigate Emissions 40
Reduced “expected” change
+ 35
+ +
30
Probability (%)
+
2.0 2.5 3.0 4.5 6.0
25 20
2030
2050
2100
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.8
1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0
1.2 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4
15
Most severe outcome is off the table
10 5
+
Climate Sensitivity
Leftward shift relative to climate sensitivity of 1.5
0 0
2
-0.8°
4
-1.3°
6
8
No policy Mitigation
10
12
Change in global mean surface temperature ( C)
+ Rose, 2010
+ + + + +
+
CSIS Risk Management Roundtable
Scientific Uncertainty and Climate Change Risk Management Jay Gulledge, PhD Senior Scientist and Program Director Pew Center on Global Climate Change & Non-resident Senior Fellow Center for a New American Security
+
Climate Change: A National Security Issue
+
• UK Ministry of Defense (2006) The DCDC strategic global trends programme, 2007-2036. • CNA (2007) National Security and the Threat of Climate Change
+
• NIC (2008) NIA on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030.
+
• NIC (2008) Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World • DNI (2010) Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Comm.
+
• White House (2010) National Security Strategy • DOD (2010) Quadrennial Defense Review
+
• Joint Forces Command (2010) Joint Operating Environment • Joint Chiefs of Staff (2011) National Military Strategy of the U.S.
+
+
Climate Change: A National Security Issue
+
• UK Ministry of Defense (2006) The DCDC strategic global trends Competition in and governance of the Arctic programme, 2007-2036.
+ +
• CNA (2007) conflict National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Intrastate over natural resources • CFR (2007) Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda
Increased for Action frequency of weather disasters
Water supply volatility in Security: glacier-fed regions • RUSI (2008) Delivering Climate International Responses to a Climate Changed World
Rising and volatile food prices +
• NIC (2008) NIA on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to damage 2030. Storm/tsunami on deltas/small islands • NIC (2008) Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World More permanently displaced persons
+
• DOD (2010) Quadrennial Defense Review
Heightened resentment toward West/USA
• U.S. Joint Forces Command (2010) Joint Operating Environment
+
+
+ +
Risk Management/Reduction “Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation…” IPCC 2007
+ + +
+
Risk: Severity of outcome x probability Risk management: Actions to reduce probability (mitigation) Actions to reduce potential severity (adaptation)
+ + + + +
+
Uncertainty and Risk • Uncertainty tempts people to disregard risk • Risk = Probability X Severity • Risk can be significant when uncertainty is large • Risk can be high when probability is low (house fire) Uncertainty Range
Probability
+
Projected Severity of Outcome
+ + + + +
+
Uncertainty and Risk • Uncertainty tempts people to disregard risk • Risk = Probability X Severity • Risk can be significant when uncertainty is large • Risk can be high when probability is low (house fire) Uncertainty Range
Probability
+
Scientific uncertainty is Information.
Uncertainty informs risk management. Projected Severity of Outcome
+
+
Uncertainty and Risk: Climate Sensitivity IPCC 2007
+ + + + Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity ( C)
+
+
Impacts Risk for Doubled CO2 (560 ppm) Warming
+ 0 °C Food
1
2
3
4
5
6
Falling crop yields in developing regions first, then developed regions later
+ Water
+
Mountain glaciers disappear; Decreased water in some areas
Ecosystems Extensive damage to coral reefs
Many more areas suffer from low water availability
Sea level rise threatens major cities
Rising numbers of species extinctions
+
Extreme Weather
Rising intensity of storms, wildfires, droughts, floods, heatwaves
Risk of Irreversible + or Abrupt Changes
+
Adapted from IPCC 2007
Rising risk of dangerous positive feedbacks, Rapid SLR and collapse of Atlantic conveyor
Best estimate ~40% Chance
~5% ~10% Chance Chance
+
Reduce Uncertainty & Risk: Mitigate Emissions 40
Reduced “expected” change
+ 35
+ +
30
Probability (%)
+
2.0 2.5 3.0 4.5 6.0
25 20
2030
2050
2100
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.8
1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0
1.2 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4
15
Most severe outcome is off the table
10 5
+
Climate Sensitivity
Leftward shift relative to climate sensitivity of 1.5
0 0
2
-0.8°
4
-1.3°
6
8
No policy Mitigation
10
12
Change in global mean surface temperature ( C)
+ Rose, 2010
