Earnings Review May 15, 2014
TTW
Buy (TP Bt12.90)
1Q14 beat our forecast
Close Bt9.85
TTW’s strong earnings released in 1Q14 reflect its resilient operation amid the fragile economic conditions domestically. This, together with its attractive dividend yield (~6-7%), prompts us to reiterate a BUY rating with a target price of Bt12.90 (SoTP). Facts & Figures 1Q14 NP beat our forecast and the street’s by 7%: TTW posted a net profit of Bt717mn (EPS: Bt0.18) in 1Q14, decreasing 18%YoY but increasing one-fold QoQ. 1Q14 core earnings improved both YoY and QoQ: Stripping out PTW’s corporate tax refund of Bt325mn booked in 1Q13 and TTW’s overdue tax of Bt261mn in 4Q13, its core earnings surged 22%YoY and 17%QoQ.
Stock Performance (%)
Analysis
Share data
1M
3M
12M
Absolute
-2.48
4.78
-9.64
Relative to SET
-2.07
0.00
6.38
The discrepancy between the actual results and our forecast mainly came from i) a higher gross margin (71.8% vs. our forecast of 70.2%), ii) 10% lower than expected SG&A expenses, iii) 12% higher than expected sharing profit from its associate (CKP).
Reuters / Bloomberg
YoY improvement on all levels: The increase in NP YoY was attributable to revenue growth with a better margin. Total revenue rose 5.8%YoY due to higher revenue from selling tap water (+5.7%YoY on increasing sales volume and selling prices) and service income (+9.4%YoY along with the increase in sales volume and BLDC’s service fee adjustment). The EBITDA margin improved from 82% to 83% as a result of flat COGS and lower SG&A expenses (mainly on the reduction of CSR expenses). Lastly, the effective tax rate dropped from 19% to 5%.
Foreign limit / actual (%)
Better margin boosted QoQ performance: The catalysts for the QoQ core earnings improvement were mainly the higher gross margin and lower SG&A expenses.
Ltd.
2014E NP forecast is maintained: Its 1Q14 core earnings account for 27% of our 2014E earnings forecast. Although we keep our full-year forecast unchanged at this point, the betterthan-expected margin in 1Q14 leaves upside risk for our forecast. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Revenues (Btm)
4,546
4,925
5,182
5,478
5,820
Net profit (Btm)
2,113
2,338
2,574
2,657
2,950
EPS (Bt)
0.53
0.59
0.65
0.67
0.74
Norm EPS (Bt)
0.53
0.55
0.59
0.67
0.74
2%
3%
9%
12%
11%
Dividend (Bt)
0.40
0.52
0.60
0.63
0.70
BV (Bt)
2.55
2.66
2.75
2.82
2.92
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
PER (x)
9.54
15.70
15.50
14.79
13.32
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.09
11.05
11.47
11.05
9.68
PBV (x)
1.98
3.45
3.64
3.50
3.37
7.9%
5.7%
6.0%
6.4%
7.1%
ROE (%)
21.5%
22.5%
23.8%
23.9%
25.8%
Net gearing (%)
61.0%
72.0%
64.7%
74.1%
58.0%
Norm EPS growth(%)
FY Ended 31 Dec
Dividend yield (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
TTW.BK/TTW TB
Sector
Energy & Utilities
Paid-up Shares (m)
3,990.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
39.00/1,212.00 49.00/11.78
52 week High / Low (Bt)
11.30/9.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
3,612.00
NVDR (%)
3.39
Estimated free float (%)
34.45
Beta
0.60
Major Shareholders (11/02/2014) Mitsui Water Holding (Thailand), Co.,
25.98 %
Bangkok Expressway Plc.
20.24 %
CH. Karnchang Plc.
19.04 % FY14
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.695
0.740
KT ZMICO vs. consensus
-3.6%
0%
Company Profile The Company is principally engaged in the production and sale of treated water to the Provincial Waterworks Authority (PWA) in the Amphur Nakorn Chaisri, Amphur Sam Pran, and Amphur Budha Monthon areas of Nakhon Pathom and the Amphur Muang and Amphur Kratumban areas of Samut Sakhon. Its subsidiaries provide treated water in Pathumthani province. CGR 2013
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624-6273 page 1 of 3
Table 1: Quarterly review Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec. 1Q13 Revenue 1,267 Gross profit 888 SG&A (77) EBITDA 1,039 Interest expense (156) Other income 66 Income tax (132) Other extra items 325 Gain (Loss) from affiliate 27 Net profit (loss) 874 Normalized profit (loss) 549 Reported EPS (Bt) 0.22 Gross margin 70.1% EBITDA margin 82.1% Net margin 69.0% Current ratio (x) 5.69 Interest coverage (x) 5.26 Debt to equity (x) 1.36 BVPS 2.58 ROE 21.4% Sales Volume (cu.m./day) - TTW 364,265 - PTW 381,169 - BIE 15,641 Effective water tariff (Bt/cu.m.) 18.13
4Q13 1,310 915 (145) 978 (149) 41 (262) (0) 17 353 615 0.09 69.8% 74.6% 26.9% 2.37 5.03 1.23 2.75 22.0%
1Q14 1,340 962 (67) 1,112 (147) 49 (40) 23 717 717 0.18 71.8% 82.9% 53.5% 4.72 6.01 1.30 2.58 24.7%
%QoQ 2.3% 5.1% -54.0% 13.7% -1.2% 20.8% -84.9% nm 31.8% 103.4% 16.6% 103.4%
%YoY 2014E 7.1% 5,478 8.3% 3,839 -13.4% (305) 7.0% 4,312 -5.7% (663) -25.4% 126 -70.0% (205) nm -14.4% 135 -17.9% 2,657 30.6% 2,657 -17.9% 0.67 70.1% 78.7% 48.5% 4.44 5.16 1.25 6.5% 0.0% 2.82 23.9%
371,751 375,739 21,081 18.14
379,960 377,488 21,011 18.74
2.2% 0.5% -0.3% 3.3%
4.3% 382,905 -1.0% 375,919 34.3% 21,429 3.3% 19.24
YTD %YoY (%2014E) 5.7% 24.5% 5.7% 25.1% -10.8% 21.9% 5.3% 25.8% 7.8% 22.2% -14.1% 39.0% -60.4% 19.4% nm nm 115.9% 17.0% 3.2% 27.0% 11.9% 27.0% 3.2% 27.0%
2.4%
2.7% 0.0% 13.4% 4.0%
Source: TTW and KT ZMICO Research
Table 2: Summary of sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for TTW Company TTW's stake Valuation Value to Note (%) Method TTW (Bt) Tap water business DCF 11.85 WACC 7.8% TTW's investment stake '- CKP 25% SOTP 1.65 KT ZMICO's TP estimate of Bt24 Minus: Net debt used for associate (0.69)
SOTP - based TP Source: TTW and KT ZMICO Research
12.90
Table 3: PER and PBV band
+2 S.D.
PER
+1 S.D.
5.0
+2 S.D. +1 S.D.
2.0 1.0
May‐08 Sep‐08 Jan‐09 May‐09 Sep‐09 Jan‐10 May‐10 Sep‐10 Jan‐11 May‐11 Sep‐11 Jan‐12 May‐12 Sep‐12 Jan‐13 May‐13 Sep‐13 Jan‐14 May‐14
PBV
4.0 3.0
-1 S.D.
(X)
‐1 S.D.
0.0
May‐08 Sep‐08 Jan‐09 May‐09 Sep‐09 Jan‐10 May‐10 Sep‐10 Jan‐11 May‐11 Sep‐11 Jan‐12 May‐12 Sep‐12 Jan‐13 May‐13 Sep‐13 Jan‐14 May‐14
(X) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Source: KT ZMICO Research, Bloomberg
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 2 of 3
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals
The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
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Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.