EBC/EEA Offshore Wind Energy Seminar Series
EBC/EEA Offshore Wind Energy Seminar Series Tuesday November 28th 2007 Kurt E. Thomsen Advanced Offshore Solutions Aps
Contents of this presentation • • • • • • •
Short biography of Kurt E. Thomsen Brief overview of the danish experience Brief overview of the European market A little technology Summary of effects of offshore wind farms The future The US business case
Short biography • • • • • •
1999 patent for installation vessel applied for 2000 the company A2SEA is founded 2001 contract awarded to build HR 2002 HR installed using patented vessels Next contracts are secured Commercial and world leading installation contractor for offshore wind farms • 2006 leaves A2SEA to start AOS
Clients represented by AOS • • • • • • • • • •
Cape Wind Associates Credit Suisse Dong Energy DOTI GmbH E-on Energy Projects Essent Wind E2 Nai Kun Renergys Multibrid
The Danish experience The contractors point of view.
Mammoet van Oord
History • 1995 the new danish energy 2005 plan recognizes the offshore wind ressource as new market • 1996 – 2000 two offshore windfarm pilots are built: Tunø and Middelgrunden • 2001 Horns Rev wind farm 160 MW is contracted • 2002 HR is built by Elsamproject now Dong Energy
The offshore market in Europe • • • •
More than 200 named offshore projects Regulatory framework in place Feed in tarifs in place The first generation of wind turbines are ready • The first generation of infrastructure is ready • Bottlenecks are generating due to market development
Current state of technology • Siting in shallow waters is crucial • The second generation turbine is not proven • Installation contractors can not yet cope with larger turbines and foundations • Foundation design is not geared for large waterdepths
Cost drivers for offshore wind • Cost is related to seabed conditions and water depth because: • Foundations are expensive, up to 45% of total cost • Simple driven monopiles are cheaper than tripods and jackets, but are limited by water depth • The design of offshore foundations is largely driven by wave impact and fatigue load. Thus the more exposed the foundation is the more expensive it becomes
Current state in offshore wind • Turbines are still in the training years • The size hasn´t significantly grown in the first 7 years • However the reliability of proven turbines is there • Foundation cost hasn´t significantly dropped • Cabling is still a very big challenge
What we know • Turbines and foundations can be installed succesfully • Windfarms can operate in coexistence with wildlife • Cost can be comparable to ”normal” power • The windfarms offshore work at a very high reliability in general
What windfarms do • • • • •
Windfarms generate jobs! They must be installed and decomissioned They must be maintained They must be repaired They must be surveyed
• Generally it is a very interesting market
What they also do • They generate clean power for everyone • They offset CO2 emissions from day one • They create opportunity for wildlife above and below sealevel • They create a business opportunity for the surrounding society • As a consequence they generate opportunity for the users of the offshore environment
What they don´t do • They do not form obstacles for the naval traffic above or below the surface • They do not form obstacles for the aviation neither birds nor planes • They do not form a threat to commercial fisheries or users of the sea • In fact: • They serve as rescue structures for sailors • They create artificial reefs for fish and benthic life
The future trends • • • •
The turbines will become larger They will move further offshore They will generate more power They will become even more competitive towards ”normal” power production
• Over time!
Larger turbines • • • • •
Development is mostly prohibited by: Current state of supporting technologies Shortage in supply Shortage in contractor capacity Shortage in contractor capability
The US business case • Build steel foundations for offshore wind farms • Build tubulars for offshore wind turbines • Start an installation and O&M industry • Build the infrastructure which is necessary • Develop offshore skill base for wind farm installation
Forecast of North American projects • • • • • • • • •
Cape Wind 130 monopiles, Transition pieces and towers Delaware 130 units. LIPA 40 units. Nai Kun 300 units. New Jersey 100 units. Patriot Renewables 100 units. Rhode Island estimated 338 units. Estimated total work load – 5 to 6 years of work, plus Shipbuilding for Eg. Cape Wind and other east coast projects. • Installation of the wind farms • Service industry for an additional 20 years per wind farm
The US market perspective • Driver of the market conditions – eg. oil price vs. power cost, the time is right now. • Develop infrastructure – you wont be able to get ready when the demand for inistallation is there • Develop standard solutions for the developers – don’t randomly evaluate projects on personal feelings such as visual pollution * • Set up a granting scheme for businesses which endavour into the offshore wind industry
Job forecast • If wind farm installation is started: • We estimate a probable number of 1000 – 1500 direct jobs and equally as many indirect jobs, such as service and subcontractors • Wind farm servicing will require additionally 500 to 1000 direct jobs and more indirect jobs • If offshore wind farm supplies are started: • We estimate an additional 500 to 800 direct jobs and equally as many indirect jobs. • For a minimum of 20 years!
What is the next step • To finish the regulatory framework, taking advantage of the lessons learned in Europe • To finish the permitting process for the first offshore windfarm(s) in the USA • To start building for a cleaner future – offshore.
Thank You.
Pictures courtesy A2SEA; Talisman; Vestas; MTHojgaard and Mammoet van Oord
Contents of this presentation • • • • • • •
Short biography of Kurt E. Thomsen Brief overview of the danish experience Brief overview of the European market A little technology Summary of effects of offshore wind farms The future The US business case
Short biography • • • • • •
1999 patent for installation vessel applied for 2000 the company A2SEA is founded 2001 contract awarded to build HR 2002 HR installed using patented vessels Next contracts are secured Commercial and world leading installation contractor for offshore wind farms • 2006 leaves A2SEA to start AOS
Clients represented by AOS • • • • • • • • • •
Cape Wind Associates Credit Suisse Dong Energy DOTI GmbH E-on Energy Projects Essent Wind E2 Nai Kun Renergys Multibrid
The Danish experience The contractors point of view.
Mammoet van Oord
History • 1995 the new danish energy 2005 plan recognizes the offshore wind ressource as new market • 1996 – 2000 two offshore windfarm pilots are built: Tunø and Middelgrunden • 2001 Horns Rev wind farm 160 MW is contracted • 2002 HR is built by Elsamproject now Dong Energy
The offshore market in Europe • • • •
More than 200 named offshore projects Regulatory framework in place Feed in tarifs in place The first generation of wind turbines are ready • The first generation of infrastructure is ready • Bottlenecks are generating due to market development
Current state of technology • Siting in shallow waters is crucial • The second generation turbine is not proven • Installation contractors can not yet cope with larger turbines and foundations • Foundation design is not geared for large waterdepths
Cost drivers for offshore wind • Cost is related to seabed conditions and water depth because: • Foundations are expensive, up to 45% of total cost • Simple driven monopiles are cheaper than tripods and jackets, but are limited by water depth • The design of offshore foundations is largely driven by wave impact and fatigue load. Thus the more exposed the foundation is the more expensive it becomes
Current state in offshore wind • Turbines are still in the training years • The size hasn´t significantly grown in the first 7 years • However the reliability of proven turbines is there • Foundation cost hasn´t significantly dropped • Cabling is still a very big challenge
What we know • Turbines and foundations can be installed succesfully • Windfarms can operate in coexistence with wildlife • Cost can be comparable to ”normal” power • The windfarms offshore work at a very high reliability in general
What windfarms do • • • • •
Windfarms generate jobs! They must be installed and decomissioned They must be maintained They must be repaired They must be surveyed
• Generally it is a very interesting market
What they also do • They generate clean power for everyone • They offset CO2 emissions from day one • They create opportunity for wildlife above and below sealevel • They create a business opportunity for the surrounding society • As a consequence they generate opportunity for the users of the offshore environment
What they don´t do • They do not form obstacles for the naval traffic above or below the surface • They do not form obstacles for the aviation neither birds nor planes • They do not form a threat to commercial fisheries or users of the sea • In fact: • They serve as rescue structures for sailors • They create artificial reefs for fish and benthic life
The future trends • • • •
The turbines will become larger They will move further offshore They will generate more power They will become even more competitive towards ”normal” power production
• Over time!
Larger turbines • • • • •
Development is mostly prohibited by: Current state of supporting technologies Shortage in supply Shortage in contractor capacity Shortage in contractor capability
The US business case • Build steel foundations for offshore wind farms • Build tubulars for offshore wind turbines • Start an installation and O&M industry • Build the infrastructure which is necessary • Develop offshore skill base for wind farm installation
Forecast of North American projects • • • • • • • • •
Cape Wind 130 monopiles, Transition pieces and towers Delaware 130 units. LIPA 40 units. Nai Kun 300 units. New Jersey 100 units. Patriot Renewables 100 units. Rhode Island estimated 338 units. Estimated total work load – 5 to 6 years of work, plus Shipbuilding for Eg. Cape Wind and other east coast projects. • Installation of the wind farms • Service industry for an additional 20 years per wind farm
The US market perspective • Driver of the market conditions – eg. oil price vs. power cost, the time is right now. • Develop infrastructure – you wont be able to get ready when the demand for inistallation is there • Develop standard solutions for the developers – don’t randomly evaluate projects on personal feelings such as visual pollution * • Set up a granting scheme for businesses which endavour into the offshore wind industry
Job forecast • If wind farm installation is started: • We estimate a probable number of 1000 – 1500 direct jobs and equally as many indirect jobs, such as service and subcontractors • Wind farm servicing will require additionally 500 to 1000 direct jobs and more indirect jobs • If offshore wind farm supplies are started: • We estimate an additional 500 to 800 direct jobs and equally as many indirect jobs. • For a minimum of 20 years!
What is the next step • To finish the regulatory framework, taking advantage of the lessons learned in Europe • To finish the permitting process for the first offshore windfarm(s) in the USA • To start building for a cleaner future – offshore.
Thank You.
Pictures courtesy A2SEA; Talisman; Vestas; MTHojgaard and Mammoet van Oord
