Economic Growth Remains Weak
Andy Yao
Joanne Yim
Senior Economist [email protected]
Chief Economist [email protected]
October 2012
Economic Growth Remains Weak
Mainland’s major financial regulators released their 12th five-year plan for mainland China's financial industry on 17 September. The most notable part of the plan is that monetary policy would emphasise more on maintaining price stability, rather than full employment and GDP growth.
The Mainland’s economic growth remained weak in August amid worsening external demand and slowing manufacturing activity, though domestic demand was resilient on the back of the Central Government’s stimulus policies. We expect that economic growth would slow further to 7.4% in the third quarter from 7.6% in the second quarter. For 2012 as a whole, our forecast is for the Mainland economy to grow 7.7%.
Consumer price inflation edged up modestly to 2.0% in August from 1.8% in July. It is likely to stay low in the face of slowing economic growth and larger declines in producer prices. We expect inflation to fall slightly to 1.8% in September and to average 2.7% for 2012 as a whole.
With global conditions deteriorating and domestic inflation remaining subdued, the authorities may take further actions to support economic growth like approving a wave of investment projects. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is also likely to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) one or two more times. In addition, it may hold the RMB per US dollar steady at 6.30 by the end of 2012 to boost export growth.
Exhibit 1: Economic Forecast % year on year
2010
2011
2012F
Real GDP
10.4
9.2
7.7
Fixed asset investment (real)
20.2
16.1
18.6
Retail sales (real)
14.8
11.6
10.9
RMB loans outstanding
19.9
15.8
16.5
Consumer prices
3.3
5.4
2.7
Exports
31.3
20.3
6.0
RMB per US dollar
6.62
6.30
6.30
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics; Hang Seng Bank
Mainland China’s major financial regulators, including the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and other institutions, released the 12th five-year plan for China's financial industry on 17 September. The most notable part of the plan is that monetary policy would emphasise more on maintaining price stability, rather than full employment and GDP growth. In the past, mainland China’s monetary policy was often seen as a vehicle to support economic growth, with money supply growth exceeding nominal GDP growth by 4 percentage points each year over the past 15 years, taking M2 from 110% of GDP in 1997 to 188% at present. The plan also listed major tasks for the period from 2011-2015, including:
maintaining the value added of the financial sector at about 5% of GDP raising direct financing to be at least 15% of aggregate funding promoting interest rate and exchange rate liberation gradually opening up the capital account. deepening reform in banking, securities and insurance establishing a deposit insurance system.
Economic growth was still moderating Although China’s authorities have already taken actions to stimulate growth, the Mainland’s economic growth remained weak in August amid worsening external demand and slowing manufacturing activity. The growth of industrial output slowed further to 8.9% in August from 9.2% in July, the lowest since June 2009, suggesting the inventory destocking has yet to complete (Exhibit 2). The destocking process is confirmed by official PMI inventory index for finished goods, which was below 50 for the third consecutive month in September. Exhibit 2: Manufacturing PMI and Industrial Production Growth 30%
Exhibit 3: Mainland China’s Trade 60
25% 55 20% 15%
50
10% 45
5% 0%
40 ‐5% Industrial Production growth, LHS
‐10% 05
06
07
08
09
Manufacturing PMI, RHS 10
11
35
12
Source: CEIC, Hang Seng Bank
2
Trade weakness continued in August due to strong external headwinds. Exports rose 2.7% while the imports contracted 2.6%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$26.7 billion in August (Exhibit 3). Stripping off the price factor, real exports grew 1.4% in August, after 0.1% drop in July, while real import growth decelerated to 1.7% from 8.8% during the same period. One positive aspect of the Mainland’s economy is that domestic demand remained resilient on the government’s supportive policy. The growth of fixed asset investment (FAI) in urban areas decelerated slightly to 19.1% in August from 20.4% in July mainly due to slowing manufacturing investment. However, considering the sharp drop in purchase price, we estimate that the real FAI growth is likely to remain stable in August. In addition, retail sales growth accelerated slightly to 13.2% in August from 13.1% in July, but adjusted for inflation, that actually eased to 12.1% from 12.2%. Looking ahead, we expect that economic growth would slow further to 7.4% in the third quarter from 7.6% in the second quarter on weak external demand, slow manufacturing activity and government policies to cool the housing market. However, economic growth is likely to rebound slightly in the last quarter as the impact of supporting measures gradually filters through the economy. For 2012 as a whole, we expect the Mainland economy to grow 7.7%.
Inflation rebounded slightly Consumer price inflation edged up modestly to 2.0% in August from 1.8% in July, suggesting that inflation remained well contained so far (Exhibit 4). The small rebound in inflation was mainly attributed to a sharp pick up in food prices, particularly in vegetable prices, which jumped 23.8% in August, compared with an 8.0% increase a month earlier. Overall food prices rose 3.4% in August after increasing 2.4% in July, while non-food prices increased 1.4% from 1.5% during the same period. Looking ahead, inflation is likely to stay low in the face of slowing economic growth and larger declines in producer prices, although rising world food prices may lead to slightly higher food price inflation in the coming months. We expect inflation to fall slightly to 1.8% in September and to average 2.7% for 2012 as a whole. Exhibit4: Consumer Price Inflation
Exhibit 5: New Home Price Growth in Major Cities
3
Home prices seemed to have stopped rising in August on government policies to cool the housing market after a short rebound since June (Exhibit 5). Of the 70 cities beingsurveyed, 38 showed month-on-month increases in home prices in August, down from 50 in July. Another 16 cities saw price declines and 16 recorded no change. Exhibit 6: Change in Transactions (Floor Area)
Exhibit 7: Change in Transactions (Total Value)
However, home sales continued their strong momentum in August (Exhibit 6 and 7). According to the Statistical Bureau, new home sales grew 20.4% in value terms and 13.3% in volume terms in August. It is noted that land sales rebounded significantly in August after the Central Government urged local governments to increase land supply. The growth of land sales in August rebounded sharply to 65.5% in value terms and 50.3% in volume terms after contracting 38.8% and 54.7% in July, respectively. In addition, under improved home sales outlook and cash flow, property FAI growth rebounded to 16.7% in August, from 9.8 July and new starts grew 13.9% from a decline of 26.7%. Looking ahead, however, it would be difficult to see a strong rebound as the Central Government is expected to continue its targeted tightening measures on the sector.
More proactive measures to support economic growth Premier Wen Jiabao stated at Summer Davos World Economic Forum on 11 September that the Central Government has already taken proactive measures to support economic growth, and there is still ample room for further easing of monetary and fiscal policy. He said further that China's fiscal account registered RMB1 trillion of surplus in the first seven months of this year, and China has sufficient policy space to stabilise the economy, including by drawing on the fiscal stabilisation fund. President Hu Jintao also announced at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) on 8 September that China’s economic growth is facing notable downward pressure and fiscal support for infrastructure investment should be strengthened. Easing monetary policy has led to faster money and credit growth. New RMB loans surged to RMB704 billion in August from RMB540 billion in July, while the growth of outstanding RMB loans accelerated slightly to 16.1% from 16.0% during the same period. However, combined with August's disappointing trade and industrial output data, as well as September’s weak official PMI, we expect the Central Government to launch further measures to boost economic growth. 4
With global conditions deteriorating and domestic inflation muting, we therefore expect the PBOC to cut the required reserve ratio (RRR) one or two more times before the end of the year, each time by 50 basis points. On interest rates, though we do not rule out one more cut to come in the remainder of this year, the possibility is becoming smaller as the central government is still concerned about sending a wrong signal that may lead to renewed speculative activities and property price rebound. With export growth slowing, we also expect the PBOC to hold the RMB per US dollar steady at the rate of 6.30 by the end of this year, the same level as at the end of 2011. In addition to monetary policy easing, the Mainland authorities would also step up fiscal efforts to support economic growth. For example, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) approved 25 subway projects, 13 highways and some other transport projects with a total investment of about RMB1 trillion on September 5 and 6. In addition, The Ministry of Railway has increased its investment plan for 2012 three times since July. It was first revised from RMB406 billion to RMB448 billion in early July and again to RMB470 billion in early August and to RMB496 billion on 30 August.
5
6
China Economic Monitor Statistics
October 2012
Industrial GDP
Fixed asset investment**
output*
Foreign trade
Retail sales Exports growth, yoy, % nominal real 25.7 19.1 17.5 8.1 -16.0 -10.6 31.3 28.5 20.3 9.4 6.0 3.9 10.0 6.8
Imports growth, yoy, % nominal real 20.8 13.4 18.5 3.2 -11.2 3.1 38.7 22.0 24.9 9.6 6.0 5.0 12.0 9.8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
Nominal RMB bn 26,581 31,405 34,090 40,151 47,156 51,964 57,967
Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Q2
12,889 9,710 10,867 11,544 15,034 10,780 11,910
9.8 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.1 7.6
13.3 14.4 13.9 13.8 12.8 11.6 9.5
23.9 25.0 25.9 23.9 21.4 20.9 20.0
17.6 17.4 18.1 15.5 14.9 18.2 18.1
18.7 16.3 17.2 17.3 17.5 14.8 13.9
13.9 11.6 11.6 10.6 12.6 10.9 11.3
25.0 26.4 22.1 20.5 14.3 7.6 10.5
18.0 15.0 10.6 9.9 3.9 2.8 6.8
29.4 32.8 23.1 24.8 20.6 6.9 6.4
18.1 15.8 6.9 8.4 8.8 2.7 7.2
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
9.3 9.6 9.5 9.2 8.9 10.1
19.0 19.9 21.2 20.4 19.1 20.2
17.1 18.0 19.3 18.5 (e) 17.2 (e) 18.0 (e)
14.1 13.8 13.7 13.1 13.2 14.1
10.7 11.0 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.4
4.9 15.3 11.3 1.0 2.7 7.1
0.1 12.1 8.2 -0.1 1.4 3.6
0.3 12.7 6.3 4.7 -2.6 5.1
0.5 14.0 7.0 8.8 1.7 4.8
Apr 2012 May June July Aug Year-to-date
real growth real growth yoy(%) yoy(%) 14.2 18.5 9.6 12.9 9.2 11.0 10.4 15.7 9.2 13.9 7.7 9.7 8.0 11.0
growth, yoy, % nominal 25.8 26.6 30.5 24.5 23.8 21.0 21.0
Per capita income Urban
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Q2 Apr 2012 May June July Aug Year-to-date
real 21.5 16.3 33.7 20.2 16.1 18.6 15.5
growth, yoy, % nominal 16.8 21.6 15.5 18.4 17.1 14.0 15.0
Deposits outstanding (domestic currency)#
Rural
real 12.5 14.8 16.9 14.8 11.6 10.9 11.6
Loans (domestic currency)#
RMB 13,786 15,781 17,175 19,109 21,810 24,253 27,357
real growth yoy(%) 12.2 8.4 9.8 7.8 8.4 8.0 9.0
RMB 4,958 5,737 6,270 7,089 8,639 10,528 12,002
real growth yoy(%) 9.4 8.6 9.6 9.1 15.2 10.0 12.0
RMB bn 38,937 46,620 59,770 71,823 80,940 91,460 101,520
yoy % 16.1 19.7 28.2 20.2 13.5 13.0 11.0
Outstanding RMB bn yoy % 26,169 16.1 30,340 18.8 39,970 31.7 47,920 19.9 54,790 15.8 63,790 16.5 72,790 14.0
4,775 5,963 5,078 5,260 5,509 6,796 5,713
8.7 7.1 8.1 8.4 10.3 9.8 9.3
2,220 2,187 1,519 2,169 2,764 2,560 1,743
7.6 14.3 13.1 13.4 18.8 12.7 11.7
71,823 75,280 78,640 79,410 80,940 84,690 88,310
20.2 19.0 17.6 14.2 13.5 12.5 12.3
47,920 49,470 51,400 52,910 54,790 57,250 59,640
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
84,230 85,450 88,310 87,810 88,310 88,310
11.4 11.4 12.3 12.6 12.2 12.2
57,930 58,720 59,640 60,180 60,890 60,890
Lending rate Money supply (end-period) (M2)
Trade balance US$bn 262.2 295.5 196.1 183.1 155.1 164.4 143.9
Consumer prices
Food
non-food
yoy(%) 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.3 5.4 2.7 3.5
yoy(%) 12.4 14.6 0.8 7.2 11.8 5.1 5.5
yoy(%) 1.0 1.6 -1.4 1.4 2.7 1.6 2.5
62.5 -1.0 46.0 66.9 48.1 0.7 69.0
4.7 5.0 5.7 6.3 4.6 3.8 2.9
10.5 11.0 12.5 13.9 9.9 8.0 5.7
1.9 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.5
18.4 18.7 31.7 25.1 26.7 120.6
3.4 3.0 2.2 1.8 2.0 3.0
7.0 6.4 3.8 2.4 3.4 5.9
1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6
Foreign Forex reserves direct (end-period) investment
New loans RMB bn 3,635 4,180 9,590 7,950 7,470 9,000 9,000
1-year % 7.47 5.31 5.31 5.81 6.56 6.00 6.00
yoy(%) 16.7 17.8 27.7 19.7 13.6 14.0 14.0
US$ bn 1,528 1,946 2,399 2,847 3,181 3,500 3,800
yoy(%) 14.9 29.7 -13.2 12.4 9.7 -3.0 5.0
19.9 17.9 16.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 16.0
1,632 2,255 1,925 1,511 1,790 2,459 2,395
5.81 6.06 6.31 6.56 6.56 6.56 6.31
19.7 16.6 15.9 13.0 13.6 13.4 13.6
2,847 3,045 3,198 3,202 3,181 3,305 3,240
15.4 15.7 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1
682 793 920 540 704 6,098
6.56 6.56 6.31 6.00 6.00 6.00
12.8 13.2 13.6 13.9 13.5 13.5
3,299 3,206 3,240 NA NA NA
RMB per USD mid-rate (end of period)
New home prices in Shanghai
7.3046 6.8400 6.8270 6.6227 6.3009 6.30 6.20
yoy(%) 3.4 5.6 1.0 7.4 2.2 NA NA
3.6 29.4 9.2 12.6 -4.6 -2.8 -2.5
6.6227 6.5564 6.4716 6.3549 6.3009 6.2943 6.3249
2.3 1.8 1.6 2.8 2.4 -0.2 -1.5
-0.7 0.1 -6.9 -8.7 -1.4 -3.4
6.2787 6.3355 6.3249 6.3320 6.3449 6.3449
-1.3 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.0
NA not available; (A)= actual; (e)= HASE estimate; yoy= year-on-year; (1H)= first half * Includes output by SOEs and non-SOEs with annual output sales of over RMB5 million. It accounts for about 88% of national industrial output. **Only covers fixed asset investment in urban areas. It accounts for about 85% of national fixed asset investment @ Also covers FDI in financial sectors since January 2008 # Accounting for about 95% of total deposits and loans Source: State Statistical Bureau; China Statistical Yearbook; CEIC
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8
Joanne Yim
Senior Economist [email protected]
Chief Economist [email protected]
October 2012
Economic Growth Remains Weak
Mainland’s major financial regulators released their 12th five-year plan for mainland China's financial industry on 17 September. The most notable part of the plan is that monetary policy would emphasise more on maintaining price stability, rather than full employment and GDP growth.
The Mainland’s economic growth remained weak in August amid worsening external demand and slowing manufacturing activity, though domestic demand was resilient on the back of the Central Government’s stimulus policies. We expect that economic growth would slow further to 7.4% in the third quarter from 7.6% in the second quarter. For 2012 as a whole, our forecast is for the Mainland economy to grow 7.7%.
Consumer price inflation edged up modestly to 2.0% in August from 1.8% in July. It is likely to stay low in the face of slowing economic growth and larger declines in producer prices. We expect inflation to fall slightly to 1.8% in September and to average 2.7% for 2012 as a whole.
With global conditions deteriorating and domestic inflation remaining subdued, the authorities may take further actions to support economic growth like approving a wave of investment projects. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is also likely to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) one or two more times. In addition, it may hold the RMB per US dollar steady at 6.30 by the end of 2012 to boost export growth.
Exhibit 1: Economic Forecast % year on year
2010
2011
2012F
Real GDP
10.4
9.2
7.7
Fixed asset investment (real)
20.2
16.1
18.6
Retail sales (real)
14.8
11.6
10.9
RMB loans outstanding
19.9
15.8
16.5
Consumer prices
3.3
5.4
2.7
Exports
31.3
20.3
6.0
RMB per US dollar
6.62
6.30
6.30
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics; Hang Seng Bank
Mainland China’s major financial regulators, including the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and other institutions, released the 12th five-year plan for China's financial industry on 17 September. The most notable part of the plan is that monetary policy would emphasise more on maintaining price stability, rather than full employment and GDP growth. In the past, mainland China’s monetary policy was often seen as a vehicle to support economic growth, with money supply growth exceeding nominal GDP growth by 4 percentage points each year over the past 15 years, taking M2 from 110% of GDP in 1997 to 188% at present. The plan also listed major tasks for the period from 2011-2015, including:
maintaining the value added of the financial sector at about 5% of GDP raising direct financing to be at least 15% of aggregate funding promoting interest rate and exchange rate liberation gradually opening up the capital account. deepening reform in banking, securities and insurance establishing a deposit insurance system.
Economic growth was still moderating Although China’s authorities have already taken actions to stimulate growth, the Mainland’s economic growth remained weak in August amid worsening external demand and slowing manufacturing activity. The growth of industrial output slowed further to 8.9% in August from 9.2% in July, the lowest since June 2009, suggesting the inventory destocking has yet to complete (Exhibit 2). The destocking process is confirmed by official PMI inventory index for finished goods, which was below 50 for the third consecutive month in September. Exhibit 2: Manufacturing PMI and Industrial Production Growth 30%
Exhibit 3: Mainland China’s Trade 60
25% 55 20% 15%
50
10% 45
5% 0%
40 ‐5% Industrial Production growth, LHS
‐10% 05
06
07
08
09
Manufacturing PMI, RHS 10
11
35
12
Source: CEIC, Hang Seng Bank
2
Trade weakness continued in August due to strong external headwinds. Exports rose 2.7% while the imports contracted 2.6%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$26.7 billion in August (Exhibit 3). Stripping off the price factor, real exports grew 1.4% in August, after 0.1% drop in July, while real import growth decelerated to 1.7% from 8.8% during the same period. One positive aspect of the Mainland’s economy is that domestic demand remained resilient on the government’s supportive policy. The growth of fixed asset investment (FAI) in urban areas decelerated slightly to 19.1% in August from 20.4% in July mainly due to slowing manufacturing investment. However, considering the sharp drop in purchase price, we estimate that the real FAI growth is likely to remain stable in August. In addition, retail sales growth accelerated slightly to 13.2% in August from 13.1% in July, but adjusted for inflation, that actually eased to 12.1% from 12.2%. Looking ahead, we expect that economic growth would slow further to 7.4% in the third quarter from 7.6% in the second quarter on weak external demand, slow manufacturing activity and government policies to cool the housing market. However, economic growth is likely to rebound slightly in the last quarter as the impact of supporting measures gradually filters through the economy. For 2012 as a whole, we expect the Mainland economy to grow 7.7%.
Inflation rebounded slightly Consumer price inflation edged up modestly to 2.0% in August from 1.8% in July, suggesting that inflation remained well contained so far (Exhibit 4). The small rebound in inflation was mainly attributed to a sharp pick up in food prices, particularly in vegetable prices, which jumped 23.8% in August, compared with an 8.0% increase a month earlier. Overall food prices rose 3.4% in August after increasing 2.4% in July, while non-food prices increased 1.4% from 1.5% during the same period. Looking ahead, inflation is likely to stay low in the face of slowing economic growth and larger declines in producer prices, although rising world food prices may lead to slightly higher food price inflation in the coming months. We expect inflation to fall slightly to 1.8% in September and to average 2.7% for 2012 as a whole. Exhibit4: Consumer Price Inflation
Exhibit 5: New Home Price Growth in Major Cities
3
Home prices seemed to have stopped rising in August on government policies to cool the housing market after a short rebound since June (Exhibit 5). Of the 70 cities beingsurveyed, 38 showed month-on-month increases in home prices in August, down from 50 in July. Another 16 cities saw price declines and 16 recorded no change. Exhibit 6: Change in Transactions (Floor Area)
Exhibit 7: Change in Transactions (Total Value)
However, home sales continued their strong momentum in August (Exhibit 6 and 7). According to the Statistical Bureau, new home sales grew 20.4% in value terms and 13.3% in volume terms in August. It is noted that land sales rebounded significantly in August after the Central Government urged local governments to increase land supply. The growth of land sales in August rebounded sharply to 65.5% in value terms and 50.3% in volume terms after contracting 38.8% and 54.7% in July, respectively. In addition, under improved home sales outlook and cash flow, property FAI growth rebounded to 16.7% in August, from 9.8 July and new starts grew 13.9% from a decline of 26.7%. Looking ahead, however, it would be difficult to see a strong rebound as the Central Government is expected to continue its targeted tightening measures on the sector.
More proactive measures to support economic growth Premier Wen Jiabao stated at Summer Davos World Economic Forum on 11 September that the Central Government has already taken proactive measures to support economic growth, and there is still ample room for further easing of monetary and fiscal policy. He said further that China's fiscal account registered RMB1 trillion of surplus in the first seven months of this year, and China has sufficient policy space to stabilise the economy, including by drawing on the fiscal stabilisation fund. President Hu Jintao also announced at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) on 8 September that China’s economic growth is facing notable downward pressure and fiscal support for infrastructure investment should be strengthened. Easing monetary policy has led to faster money and credit growth. New RMB loans surged to RMB704 billion in August from RMB540 billion in July, while the growth of outstanding RMB loans accelerated slightly to 16.1% from 16.0% during the same period. However, combined with August's disappointing trade and industrial output data, as well as September’s weak official PMI, we expect the Central Government to launch further measures to boost economic growth. 4
With global conditions deteriorating and domestic inflation muting, we therefore expect the PBOC to cut the required reserve ratio (RRR) one or two more times before the end of the year, each time by 50 basis points. On interest rates, though we do not rule out one more cut to come in the remainder of this year, the possibility is becoming smaller as the central government is still concerned about sending a wrong signal that may lead to renewed speculative activities and property price rebound. With export growth slowing, we also expect the PBOC to hold the RMB per US dollar steady at the rate of 6.30 by the end of this year, the same level as at the end of 2011. In addition to monetary policy easing, the Mainland authorities would also step up fiscal efforts to support economic growth. For example, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) approved 25 subway projects, 13 highways and some other transport projects with a total investment of about RMB1 trillion on September 5 and 6. In addition, The Ministry of Railway has increased its investment plan for 2012 three times since July. It was first revised from RMB406 billion to RMB448 billion in early July and again to RMB470 billion in early August and to RMB496 billion on 30 August.
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6
China Economic Monitor Statistics
October 2012
Industrial GDP
Fixed asset investment**
output*
Foreign trade
Retail sales Exports growth, yoy, % nominal real 25.7 19.1 17.5 8.1 -16.0 -10.6 31.3 28.5 20.3 9.4 6.0 3.9 10.0 6.8
Imports growth, yoy, % nominal real 20.8 13.4 18.5 3.2 -11.2 3.1 38.7 22.0 24.9 9.6 6.0 5.0 12.0 9.8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
Nominal RMB bn 26,581 31,405 34,090 40,151 47,156 51,964 57,967
Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Q2
12,889 9,710 10,867 11,544 15,034 10,780 11,910
9.8 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.1 7.6
13.3 14.4 13.9 13.8 12.8 11.6 9.5
23.9 25.0 25.9 23.9 21.4 20.9 20.0
17.6 17.4 18.1 15.5 14.9 18.2 18.1
18.7 16.3 17.2 17.3 17.5 14.8 13.9
13.9 11.6 11.6 10.6 12.6 10.9 11.3
25.0 26.4 22.1 20.5 14.3 7.6 10.5
18.0 15.0 10.6 9.9 3.9 2.8 6.8
29.4 32.8 23.1 24.8 20.6 6.9 6.4
18.1 15.8 6.9 8.4 8.8 2.7 7.2
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
9.3 9.6 9.5 9.2 8.9 10.1
19.0 19.9 21.2 20.4 19.1 20.2
17.1 18.0 19.3 18.5 (e) 17.2 (e) 18.0 (e)
14.1 13.8 13.7 13.1 13.2 14.1
10.7 11.0 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.4
4.9 15.3 11.3 1.0 2.7 7.1
0.1 12.1 8.2 -0.1 1.4 3.6
0.3 12.7 6.3 4.7 -2.6 5.1
0.5 14.0 7.0 8.8 1.7 4.8
Apr 2012 May June July Aug Year-to-date
real growth real growth yoy(%) yoy(%) 14.2 18.5 9.6 12.9 9.2 11.0 10.4 15.7 9.2 13.9 7.7 9.7 8.0 11.0
growth, yoy, % nominal 25.8 26.6 30.5 24.5 23.8 21.0 21.0
Per capita income Urban
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Q2 Apr 2012 May June July Aug Year-to-date
real 21.5 16.3 33.7 20.2 16.1 18.6 15.5
growth, yoy, % nominal 16.8 21.6 15.5 18.4 17.1 14.0 15.0
Deposits outstanding (domestic currency)#
Rural
real 12.5 14.8 16.9 14.8 11.6 10.9 11.6
Loans (domestic currency)#
RMB 13,786 15,781 17,175 19,109 21,810 24,253 27,357
real growth yoy(%) 12.2 8.4 9.8 7.8 8.4 8.0 9.0
RMB 4,958 5,737 6,270 7,089 8,639 10,528 12,002
real growth yoy(%) 9.4 8.6 9.6 9.1 15.2 10.0 12.0
RMB bn 38,937 46,620 59,770 71,823 80,940 91,460 101,520
yoy % 16.1 19.7 28.2 20.2 13.5 13.0 11.0
Outstanding RMB bn yoy % 26,169 16.1 30,340 18.8 39,970 31.7 47,920 19.9 54,790 15.8 63,790 16.5 72,790 14.0
4,775 5,963 5,078 5,260 5,509 6,796 5,713
8.7 7.1 8.1 8.4 10.3 9.8 9.3
2,220 2,187 1,519 2,169 2,764 2,560 1,743
7.6 14.3 13.1 13.4 18.8 12.7 11.7
71,823 75,280 78,640 79,410 80,940 84,690 88,310
20.2 19.0 17.6 14.2 13.5 12.5 12.3
47,920 49,470 51,400 52,910 54,790 57,250 59,640
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
84,230 85,450 88,310 87,810 88,310 88,310
11.4 11.4 12.3 12.6 12.2 12.2
57,930 58,720 59,640 60,180 60,890 60,890
Lending rate Money supply (end-period) (M2)
Trade balance US$bn 262.2 295.5 196.1 183.1 155.1 164.4 143.9
Consumer prices
Food
non-food
yoy(%) 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.3 5.4 2.7 3.5
yoy(%) 12.4 14.6 0.8 7.2 11.8 5.1 5.5
yoy(%) 1.0 1.6 -1.4 1.4 2.7 1.6 2.5
62.5 -1.0 46.0 66.9 48.1 0.7 69.0
4.7 5.0 5.7 6.3 4.6 3.8 2.9
10.5 11.0 12.5 13.9 9.9 8.0 5.7
1.9 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.5
18.4 18.7 31.7 25.1 26.7 120.6
3.4 3.0 2.2 1.8 2.0 3.0
7.0 6.4 3.8 2.4 3.4 5.9
1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6
Foreign Forex reserves direct (end-period) investment
New loans RMB bn 3,635 4,180 9,590 7,950 7,470 9,000 9,000
1-year % 7.47 5.31 5.31 5.81 6.56 6.00 6.00
yoy(%) 16.7 17.8 27.7 19.7 13.6 14.0 14.0
US$ bn 1,528 1,946 2,399 2,847 3,181 3,500 3,800
yoy(%) 14.9 29.7 -13.2 12.4 9.7 -3.0 5.0
19.9 17.9 16.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 16.0
1,632 2,255 1,925 1,511 1,790 2,459 2,395
5.81 6.06 6.31 6.56 6.56 6.56 6.31
19.7 16.6 15.9 13.0 13.6 13.4 13.6
2,847 3,045 3,198 3,202 3,181 3,305 3,240
15.4 15.7 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1
682 793 920 540 704 6,098
6.56 6.56 6.31 6.00 6.00 6.00
12.8 13.2 13.6 13.9 13.5 13.5
3,299 3,206 3,240 NA NA NA
RMB per USD mid-rate (end of period)
New home prices in Shanghai
7.3046 6.8400 6.8270 6.6227 6.3009 6.30 6.20
yoy(%) 3.4 5.6 1.0 7.4 2.2 NA NA
3.6 29.4 9.2 12.6 -4.6 -2.8 -2.5
6.6227 6.5564 6.4716 6.3549 6.3009 6.2943 6.3249
2.3 1.8 1.6 2.8 2.4 -0.2 -1.5
-0.7 0.1 -6.9 -8.7 -1.4 -3.4
6.2787 6.3355 6.3249 6.3320 6.3449 6.3449
-1.3 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.0
NA not available; (A)= actual; (e)= HASE estimate; yoy= year-on-year; (1H)= first half * Includes output by SOEs and non-SOEs with annual output sales of over RMB5 million. It accounts for about 88% of national industrial output. **Only covers fixed asset investment in urban areas. It accounts for about 85% of national fixed asset investment @ Also covers FDI in financial sectors since January 2008 # Accounting for about 95% of total deposits and loans Source: State Statistical Bureau; China Statistical Yearbook; CEIC
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