InVision
New business area update
School as a service
Software & comp services
InVision’s H1 results showed the early success of the web-based The Call
17 September 2014
Center School offering. This gives us greater confidence that this new area of the business could, as management suggests, be as significant a business opportunity as the one it already addresses in workforce
Price
€47.56
Market cap
€105m
management. Although InVision’s valuation multiples are high by traditional software company standards, this is a real SaaS business, rather than a conventional software company with a SaaS product. Furthermore, at present there is relatively little in our forecasts in terms of revenues and profits for The Call Center School.
Net cash (€m) as at 30 June 2014
0.6m
Shares in issue
2.2m
Free float
31%
Code
IVX
Primary exchange Revenue (€m)
PBT* (€m)
EPS* (€)
DPS (€)
P/E (x)
Yield (%)
12/13
13.6
1.8
0.9
0.0
52.8
N/A
12/14e
13.5
4.0
1.6
0.0
29.7
N/A
12/15e
15.5
5.7
2.3
0.0
20.7
N/A
12/16e
18.2
8.0
3.2
0.0
14.9
N/A
Year end
Frankfurt
Secondary exchange
N/A
Share price performance
Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.
The Call Center School watershed H1 figures showed that InVision is continuing to make good progress in its development as a SaaS software business and that its move into the eLearning market has been well received. Although the progress the company is seeing in developing its subscriptions-based software revenues is impressive (indicated as high teens growth by management), in our view it is the strong launch of The Call Center School (TCCS) that was the most significant development in the first half. The ease of use, broad appeal and attractive pricing have helped TCCS attract more customers within its first six months of release than all the other InVision products combined in the past three years.
TCCS is only a small part of the short-term numbers Our forecasts include only €0.5m and €0.8m in revenues for TCCS in FY14e and FY15e respectively. It is clear from the strong start and the nature of the business model that this area could show dramatic growth in revenues and, in turn, profits over the coming years. The brand has been established and the digital education content has already been created, but the big marketing push has yet to begin.
Valuation: Pure SaaS plus more InVision’s shares continue to trade on earnings multiples discounts to those of the leading US-listed SaaS players (see table overleaf). Although the scale and the opportunities facing these other US businesses are admittedly considerably greater, InVision has many of the core business dynamics that investors find so
%
1m
3m
12m
Abs
1.2
(12.3)
160.0
(4.5)
(10.0)
132.4
Rel (local) 52-week high/low
€64.6
€17.9
Business description InVision provides workforce management software and online training for contact centres on a software-as-a-service platform. It is based in Germany and focused on European and North American opportunities as the market moves from in-house to professional solutions.
Next event Q3 preliminary results
23 October 2014
Analysts Ian Robertson
+44 (0)20 3681 2523
Dan Ridsdale
+44 (0)20 3077 5729
[email protected] Edison profile page
attractive in SaaS (such as ease of scaling, direct delivery, predictability of revenues).
InVision is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited
The Call Center School – a SaaS-type dynamic The nature of call centre agent training is such that the key messages can be relayed within an eLearning environment at a fraction of the cost of the traditional equivalent; for example a call centre can enrol up to 25 call centre agents to all of the school’s 170 modules for a list price of only $199 per month. Furthermore, agents can be taught in sessions that can be stopped and started at will and that can be taken at times convenient to the agents and the call centre’s management. Management has stated that it believes the market opportunity to be worth in excess of $300m a year in North America alone.
No obvious direct competitor, yet Our research into eLearning for call centres suggests the existing players in the training for call centre staff, which are typically small-scale operations, struggle with the harsh choices that eLearning forces upon them. Most appear to be constrained by, and wedded to, their traditional models involving trainers presenting the training, or creating courses tailored to the clients’ specific requirements. This gives us some reassurance that InVision will be able to continue to demonstrate strong growth in TCCS revenues for some time to come.
TCCS as a way to open software opportunities Importantly, InVision is able to offer TCCS courses to any size of call centre and is in no way restricted to existing customers of its workforce management software. TCCS is an established brand in the US and most of the growth it is seeing is within the US call centre market. This should benefit the wider group as injixo WFM (the SaaS workforce management product) is coming from behind in the small and mid-sized US call centre market, so TCCS could well open up a few doors over the coming years.
Valuation discount As can be seen in the table below, InVision continues to trade on earnings multiple discounts to the leading US-listed SaaS players. Although the scale and the opportunities facing these other US businesses are admittedly considerably greater, InVision has many of the core business dynamics that investors find so attractive in SaaS (such as ease of scaling, direct delivery, predictability of revenues). Note that we have trimmed our EPS forecasts by 4% to reflect the recent sale of treasury shares to an institutional investor. Exhibit 1: Comparator earnings multiples
InVision Workday Cornerstone Salesforce NetSuite
Share Local Market cap price currency (local m) (local) 49.7 € 111 92.3 US$ 17,170 40.2 US$ 2,140 62.4 US$ 37,609 87.0 US$ 6,650
EV FY1 (local m) Year end 111 16,429 2,197 37,419 6,340
Dec/14 Jan/15 Dec/14 Jan/15 Dec/14
P/E FY1 (x)
P/E FY2 (x)
P/E FY3 (x)
30.5 N/A N/A 122.4 334.6
21.5 N/A N/A 87.9 193.3
15.3 923.0 134.0 67.1 110.1
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA FY1 (x) FY2 (x) 24.7 N/A 422.5 38.5 126.8
18.0 477.6 106.1 30.7 94.6
EV/EBITDA FY3 (x) 13.1 124.4 58.3 24.6 67.4
Source: Thomson Datastream, Edison Investment Research. Note: Priced at 9 September 2014.
InVision | 17 September 2014
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Exhibit 2: Financial summary Year-end 31 December
€000s
PROFIT & LOSS Revenue Cost of Sales Gross Profit EBITDA Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) Intangible Amortisation Exceptionals Other Operating Profit Net Interest Profit Before Tax (norm) Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) Tax Profit After Tax (norm) Profit After Tax (FRS 3)
2011 IFRS
2012 IFRS
2013 IFRS
2014e IFRS
2015e IFRS
2016e IFRS
12,384 (178) 12,206 (3,643) (3,860) 0 0 104 (3,756) 48 (3,813) (3,709) (3,887) (7,596) (7,596)
13,228 (340) 12,888 1,168 816 0 0 (125) 692 13 829 705 146 975 851
13,557 (324) 13,233 2,060 1,754 0 0 (222) 1,532 9 1,764 1,542 10 1,773 1,552
13,511 (270) 13,241 4,467 4,077 0 0 0 4,077 (50) 4,027 4,027 (383) 3,644 3,644
15,513 (264) 15,249 6,155 5,765 0 0 0 5,765 (50) 5,715 5,715 (543) 5,172 5,172
18,174 (309) 17,865 8,437 8,047 0 0 0 8,047 (50) 7,997 7,997 (760) 7,238 7,238
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) EPS - normalised (€) EPS - normalised and fully diluted (€) EPS - (IFRS) (€) Dividend per share (c)
2.2 (3.4) (3.4) (3.4) 0.0
2.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0
2.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.0
2.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.0
2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 0.0
2.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 0.0
Gross Margin (%) EBITDA Margin (%) Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)
98.6 -29.4 -31.2
97.4 8.8 6.2
97.6 15.2 12.9
98.0 33.1 30.2
98.3 39.7 37.2
98.3 46.4 44.3
BALANCE SHEET Fixed Assets Intangible Assets Tangible Assets Investments Current Assets Stocks Debtors Cash Other Current Liabilities Creditors Short term borrowings Long Term Liabilities Long term borrowings Other long term liabilities Net Assets
2,676 1,253 308 1,115 5,831 17 3,845 1,667 301 (4,933) (4,913) (20) 0 0 0 3,574
2,114 1,050 254 811 6,135 12 2,833 2,490 799 (3,853) (3,853) 0 0 0 0 4,396
2,436 852 697 887 6,417 11 1,563 4,576 267 (3,603) (3,603) 0 0 0 0 5,249
8,217 861 6,914 442 6,932 11 2,221 4,433 267 (3,357) (3,357) 0 (4,000) (4,000) 0 7,792
7,722 851 6,829 42 12,604 11 2,550 9,775 267 (3,362) (3,362) 0 (4,000) (4,000) 0 12,964
7,627 841 6,744 42 19,942 11 2,987 16,676 267 (3,367) (3,367) 0 (4,000) (4,000) 0 20,202
CASH FLOW Operating Cash Flow Net Interest Tax Capex Acquisitions/disposals Financing* Dividends Net Cash Flow Opening net debt/(cash) HP finance leases initiated Other Closing net debt/(cash)
(2,102) 0 0 (1,028) 0 (653) 0 (3,784) (5,431) 0 0 (1,647)
1,294 0 0 (374) (148) 71 0 843 (1,647) 0 0 (2,490)
3,023 0 0 (62) 0 (875) 0 2,086 (2,490) 0 0 (4,576)
3,575 0 0 (7,150) 0 (568) 0 (4,143) (4,576) 0 0 (433)
5,637 0 0 (295) 0 0 0 5,342 (433) 0 0 (5,775)
7,196 0 0 (295) 0 0 0 6,901 (5,775) 0 0 (12,676)
Source: InVision, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Financing includes capital restructuring payment in 2014.
InVision | 17 September 2014
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