The Egyptian Cabinet Information and Decision Support Center Public Opinion Poll Center
Egypt Telephone Surveys between Fixed Phones and Cell Phones
Prepared by Mahmoud El-Kasabi, Ahmed Loutfy
May2007
Egypt Telephone Surveys between Fixed Phones and Cell Phones Mahmoud El-Kasabi*, Ahmed Loutfy**
Abstract.
Briefly speaking, as the first and the only telephone poll center in Egypt,
(POPC) the Public Opinion Poll Center can reach 53 percent of the Egyptian households through their fixed phones. At the same time, the development in the cell phone technology is very fast and as a result the number of the cell phone owners is rising rapidly compared to the fixed telephones. In less than 10 years, the number of cell phone lines reached 18 million. Reaching to non-fixed telephone households through the cell phones can reduce the bias of the fixed phone surveys. This paper attempts to identify the characteristics of households that have at least one cell phone line and does not have fixed phone line, also the paper will explore the possibility of using the cell phone interviews as an alternative for the fixed phone surveys in Egypt.
Keywords: Telephone Surveys, Cell Phone Surveys.
1. Introduction In Egypt, telephone surveys methodology is a newborn method used in gathering data about public opinions. The Public Opinion Poll Center of the Information and Decision Support Center is the first Arabic specialized center in the area of public opinion polls, adopting the telephone survey methodology to collect data from respondents. The Public Opinion Poll Center depends on the fixed phone database inside the Arab Republic of Egypt, provided by Telecom Egypt Company. The advantages of the telephone survey methodology encourage the use of the methodology and support the efforts to overcome its disadvantages and problems. Telephone surveys are faster and less expensive than those done face-to-face. In the same time, the quality of the telephone survey process is well controlled through a centralized facility (Groves et. al. 2002). Telephone surveys face some problems such as; the nonresponse which occurs if the individuals selected in the sample do not provide the required information because they have not been contacted, are unable to co-operate, or refuse to. Another problem is the noncoverage which occurs only if units that should be in the sampling *
Statistician, Public Opinion Poll Center, The Information and Decision Support Center-The Cabinet Deputy Director, Public Opinion Poll Center, The Information and Decision Support Center-The Cabinet **
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frame are not in the frame, or are in the frame but with lower percent than they really are in the population (under-coverage). In a well designed fixed phone surveys, the only obstacle to achieve a universal coverage rate is the absence of telephones from some households and failure to sample numbers due to lack of comprehensive telephone directories, listing all households who have telephones (Shapiro et al, 1996). The advantages of the telephone survey methodology and the increasing penetration of the fixed phones all over the world encouraged a lot of researchers to attempt to treat these problems which can be considered a threat to the survey estimates. Using cell phones to target the household or gathering the survey data is one of the proposed solutions for the fixed phone surveys problems. Even if a full directory of all fixed numbers was used as a sampling frame in fixed telephone surveys in Egypt, there would remain 47 percent uncovered households which have not fixed telephones. So it's impossible to reach full sampling coverage of Egyptian households, due to the uncovered households (non-telephone households). During the last ten years in Egypt, the number of cell phone lines reached 18 million. This paper describes the features of the Egyptian phone market as an introduction to a descriptive analysis for the characteristics of the households which have cell phones but do not have fixed phones, and attempts to answer the following question: To what extent the cell phone surveys could be considered alternatives for the fixed phone surveys in Egypt?
2. Structure of the Telephone Market in Egypt Egypt communication network contains one major national fixed telephone company, Telecom Egypt, and two cell phone companies (Vodafone and Mobinil), and a third company namely "Etisalat" that has just started its activities on 1st May 2007. By the end of 2006, Telecom Egypt has 10.8 million fixed telephone subscribers. Over the last ten years, the number of cell phone subscribers skyrocketed to 18 million. The growth has been driven by the competition between two cell phone providers, Mobinil and Vodafone. The Egyptian cell phone market is far behind markets in Western and Eastern Europe as Egypt is still in the phase of providing basic cell phone voice services and some of GPRS services. Cell phone services were first introduced in Eastern Europe in
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1994-1995 but were not launched in Egypt until 1998. This 3-year time gap is the main difference between the Egyptian market and markets in Eastern Europe. Thus, over the next few years, it is expected that number of cell phone subscribers in Egypt will follow the S curve found in the Europe market. Mobinil and Vodafone are in a unique position as they can focus on developing their networks in terms of business hierarchies and network capacities. Both operators are trying to saturate the target market as much as possible. The third cell phone operator "Etisalat" will focus on attracting its competitors subscribers, by introducing different fee packages, with services of 3rd generation (3.5 G) Mobil's services, and widening the market by providing lower fees for lower income brackets, thus resegmenting the market (ICT Cluster Group, http://www.wmictcluster.org/).
3. Trends of the number of subscribers of fixed and cell phones in Egypt Figure (1) displays the trends
of
the
number
of
Figure (1): Trends of fixed and cell phones lines in Egypt millions
increase in the number of cell
Jul-06
Dec-06
Mar-06
Jul-05
Jul-04
cell phones
Nov-05
rapid
Mar-05
the
Nov-04
displays
Mar-04
figure
The
Jul-03
http://nds.idsc.gov.eg/).
Center,
Nov-03
Support
Mar-03
Decision
Jul-02
2002-2006 (Information and
Nov-02
cell phones over the period
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Mar-02
subscribers of fixed phones and
fixed
phone subscribers compared to the number of fixed phone subscribers. In the same time, considering that, the fixed phone reaches all household members, and the household may have more than one cell phone, the 10.8 million fixed lines may cover about 30 million adults, where the 18 million cell phone line may present less than 18 million adults. So this reduction in individual coverage may lead to serious bias in the survey estimates (in case of using the cell phone as a tool of interviewing in Egypt).
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4. Cell phone only households' characteristics This part depends on the 2005 Egypt Demographic and Health Survey (2005 EDHS). The 2005 EDHS is the eighth in a series of national face-to-face Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Egypt. The 2005 EDHS sample is a nationally representative stratified probability cluster sample. The sample consists of 21,972 households in 682 primary sampling units (298 shiakhas/towns and 384 villages), with some demographic data about the individuals in sampled households. These households are distributed over the 26 Egyptian governorates. More details about the design and data of the EDHS can be found in (El-Zanaty and Way, 2006). Figure (2) displays the coverage of households by fixed phones and cell phones in Egypt. Households can be divided into four groups which are, no-phone households, only cell phone households, only fixed phone households, and both cell and fixed phones households. Figure (2) indicates that fixed phones can reach 53 percent of the Egyptian
Figure (2): Percents of fixed and cell phones households in Egypt
households (31% fixed only and 22% have both phones), and cell phones can reach 25
both 22%
percent of the Egyptian households (3% cell phones only and 22% have both phones), so it's not the proper time to use the cell phones
fixed only 31%
as a tool for collecting survey data in Egypt.
no phone 44%
cell only 3%
The 25 percent households that own cell phones, has been formed over less than ten years, which indicates that cell phone surveys may be a promising methodology in the near future, in particular as their prevalence expands among non-telephone households (44%). The households that have cell phones only (3%) represent the new window of opportunity to reach households that are not covered by the fixed telephone service. Table (1) shows that, apparently, this small newly formed group is relatively more concentrated among non-telephone households: in the forth quintile of the economic level, in the urban governorates, with age of head less than 40 years, in male-headed households, and in households where the head has a secondary level education.
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Although we consider cell phones to be a means to reach non-telephone households, we have to emphasis the point that this tool is mainly an individual feature rather than a household characteristic and better be used at this level.
5. Practical considerations Cell phones differ from the fixed phones in many aspects. These differences may affect the process of gathering the survey data. Cell phones are carried all the time, which may reduce the problem of nonresponse, but in the same time the respondent may be anywhere and in any situation, which may have an effect on the concentration of the respondent and therefore the quality of the answers. Fixed phones survey samples are household samples and can also be used to sample individuals, but cell phone survey samples are mainly individual samples, this means that we can reach only the cell phone holder. Supposedly that, our sampling unit is the household, if more than one member of the household has a cell phone, this will result in duplication of households in the sample, or at least, a higher chance for these households to be sampled. Cell phone surveys may reach some households which have cell phones but do not have fixed phones, which may reduce the non-coverage problem by reaching uncovered part of the population. With regard to the cost, cell phone calls cost more than the fixed phones calls, which affects the total cost of the cell phone surveys. This part attempts to present some influences of cell phones on survey research, which must be considered when we use the cell phone as a tool for collecting surveys data. In 2002, Kuusela and Simpanen divided these influences into sampling and nonsampling influences. Identifying these influences enables us to make changes in some sampling-related issues and considering the non-sampling effects, which are composed of the practicalities of survey work and survey cost. The non-sampling influences of using the cell phones in surveys are related with survey cost, survey practice, survey results, and finally the response rate of the respondents. According to the sampling related influences, these influences are related with frame coverage, inclusion probability, and profile of cell phone users. Here non-sampling issues relate with the practicalities of survey work. In Egypt, a call to cell phone cost more than a call to a fixed phone, which will raise the cost of
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the survey. Using cell phone in contacting the respondents may be affected by the nature of cell phone, because a cell phone is carried nearly all the time, a respondent may answer a call anywhere which may have an impact on the quality of responses and on how the respondent will answer. The interviewers should be trained on dealing with cell phone interviewing, the interviewer must ensure that the respondent is in a place where he or she can speak freely and would be able to concentrate properly. According to the non-response rate, cell phones may succeed to contact a big part of refusals, those respondents who previously were difficult to reach like young men and students if these groups turn out to indeed have cell phones. Also cell phones can reduce the high non-response rate obtained during the holiday season. According to the sampling related influences, these influences are related with the sampling unit and the sample frame. First, according to the frame coverage, the proportion of households reached with cell phones differ from the proportion of households reached with fixed phones. In Egypt, this problem faces the fixed phone surveys as well as the cell phone surveys, but the percent of fixed phones coverage exceeds the cell phones coverage (53% compared to 25% only). Using cell phones in surveys will alter the sample to be individual or population sample, not a household sample as in fixed phone surveys, what may cause some overlapping in the frame. Also cell phones numbers do not indicate where the user of the phone lives, what affects the geographic distribution of the sample. The probability of inclusion of a household will increase by increasing the cell phones in the household what may increase by increasing the number of household members. Cell phone users are not a homogeneous group as fixed phones users with regard to their ownership and usage. There are cell phones provided by employer to their employees, so many people have both cell phone of their own and a company cell phone. So the owners of the cell phones may be not their users. Also many of cell phone users may not be eligible to answer the survey questionnaire (less than 18 years of age) (Kuusela and Simpanen, 2002).
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6. Conclusion Using cell phones to collect data of surveys is related with the structure of the telephone market, which differs from country to another. Covering 25% of Egyptian households by cell phones (including only 3 percent of cell phone only households) indicates that cell phone surveys have the opportunity to be applied in the future, if the cell phone succeeded to reach the 44 percent of non-telephone households. Currently the fixed phone survey is a more practical and better methodology to be applied in Egypt. To apply the cell phone survey methodology in the future, some practical points must be considered, these points are either sampling or non-sampling issues. Finally, having a cell phone is an individual feature rather than a household characteristic and better to used at this level.
Acknowledgment The authors thanks Dr. Sahar El-Tawila, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University, for her supports and comments on an earlier version of the paper.
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References 1. Cunningham, P., Berlin, M., Meader, J., Molloy, K., Moore, D., and Pajunen, S. 1997. "Using Cellular Telephone to Interview Nontelephone Households". 1997Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Survey Research Methods Section, pp. 250-254. 2. El-Zanaty, Fatma and Ann Way. 2006. Egypt Demographic and Health Survey 2005. Cairo, Egypt: Ministry of Health and Population, National Population Council, El-Zanaty and Associates, and ORC Macro. 3. Groves, Rober, M., Biemer, Paul, P., Lyberg, Lars, E., Massey, James, T., Nicholls, William, L., and Waksberg, Joseph. 2002. Telephone Survey Methodology. John Wiley & Sons, inc. 4. Kim, Sun W., and Lepkowski, James M. 2002. " Telephone Household NonCoverage and Mobile Telephones". 2002Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Survey Research Methods Section, pp. 1845-1850. 5. Kuusela, Vesa and Simpanen, Matti,. 2002. " Effects of Mobile Phones on Telephone Survey". Present paper in the International Conference on Improving Surveys, University of Copenhagen – Denmark. 6. Roy, Gildas and Vanheuverzwyn, Aurélie,. 2002. "Mobile Phone in Sample Surveys". Present paper in the International Conference on Improving Surveys, University of Copenhagen – Denmark. 7.
Shapiro, Gary M., Battaglia, Michael P., Hoaglin, David C., Buckley, Paul, and Massey, James T. 1996. "Geographical Variation in Within-household Coverage of Households with Telephones in an RDD Survey". 1996 Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Survey Research Methods Section, pp. 491-496.
8. http://nds.idsc.gov.eg/, Information and Decision Support Center. National Data Store. Extracted in 22/03/2007. 9. http://www.wmictcluster.org/, Communication Market in Egypt. ICT Cluster Group. Extracted in 22/03/2007.
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Table (1): Distributions of the cell phone only households only cell
All
phone HH
households
Urban Governorates
29.1
21.4
Urban Lower Egypt
15.1
12.4
Rural Lower Egypt
28.4
28.7
Urban Upper Egypt
13.1
13.5
Rural Upper Egypt
12.1
23.0
Frontier Governorates
2.2
0.9
18 - 29
24.4
9.5
30 - 39
32.0
23.3
40 - 49
19.6
26.9
50 - 59
14.6
20.5
60 +
9.3
19.9
Male
93.8
87.7
Female
6.2
12.3
No Education
13.9
30.0
Educational Level of
Primary/Prep
20.3
20.5
Head
Secondary
51.6
34.2
Higher
14.2
15.3
Never Married
7.4
2.8
Married
83.3
83.4
Widowed
7.4
12.2
Divorced
1.0
1.1
Separated
1.0
0.4
One
5.5
4.8
Two
13.7
10.2
Three
16.9
12.6
Four
20.7
18.7
Five
16.3
19.5
Six
11.3
13.9
Seven or more
5.5
20.3
1 Quintile (poorest)
6.0
17.3
2 Quintile (poorer)
12.5
16.6
3rd Quintile Moderate
17.4
19.4
49.3
22.9
14.9
23.8
Characteristic
Region
Age of Head
Sex of Head
Marital Status of Head
Family size
st
nd
Economic level
th
4 Quintile (Richer) th
5 Quintile (Richest)
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