Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ships & Tractors; Liquid Hydrogen ...
Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ships & Tractors; Liquid Hydrogen Aircraft
Ecofriend.org
Zmships.eu
Electric ship
Ec.europa.eu
Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater
Midlandpower.com
Conservpros.com
Adaptivebuilders.com
Heat pump water heater
Lifecycle CO2e of Electricity Sources Low Est.
High Est.
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
50 0 Wind
CSP
Solar-PV
Geoth
Tidal
Wave
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal-CCS
Time Between Planning & Operation Nuclear:
10 - 19 y (life 40 y) Site permit: 3.5 - 6 y Construction permit approval and issue 2.5 - 4 y Construction time 4 - 9 years
Hydroelectric: Coal-CCS: Geothermal: Ethanol, CSP, Solar-PV, Wave, Tidal, Wind:
8 - 16 y (life 80 y) 6 - 11 y (life 35 y) 3 - 6 y (life 35 y) 2 - 5 y (life 40 y)
CO2e From Current Power Mix due to Planning-to-Operation Delays, Relative to Wind Low Est.
High Est.
150
100
50
0 Wind
CSP
Solar-PV
Geoth
Tidal
Wave
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal-CCS
Total CO2e of Electricity Sources Low Est.
High Est.
600 550
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Wind
CSP
Solar-PV
Geoth
Tidal
Wave
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal-CCS
Percent change in all U.S. CO2 emissions 50
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Maximum reduction is 33%
40
Corn-E85 Cel-E85
Wind-BEV Wind-HFCV CSP-BEV PV-BEV Geo-BEV Tidal-BEV Wave-BEV Hydro-BEV Nuc-BEV CCS-BEV
Change in U.S. CO2 (%) From Converting to BEVs, HFCVs, or E85
Low/High U.S. Air Pollution Deaths/yr For 2020 Upon Conversion of U.S. Vehicle Fleet Nuclear Terrorism or War
Low Est.
High Est.
27000 24000 21000 18000
15000 12000 9000 6000 3000 0
Wind Wind BEV HFCV
CSP BEV
PV BEV
Geo BEV
Tidal BEV
Wave Hydro Nuclear CCS BEV BEV BEV BEV
Corn E85
Cell Gasoline E85
Wind Footprints
Pro.corbins.com
Pro.corbins.com
www.eng.uoo.ca
www.npower-renewables.com
www.offshore-power.net
Nuclear Footprints
wwwdelivery.superstock.com; Pro.corbis.com; Eyeball-series.org; xs124.xs.to
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Wind-BEV Footprint 1-2.8 km2 Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US
Cellulosic E85 4.7-35.4% of US
Nuclear-BEV 0.05-0.062% Footprint 33% of total; the rest is buffer
Corn E85 9.8-17.6% of US
Geoth BEV 0.006-0.008%
Solar PV-BEV 0.077-0.18%
90m WRF-ARW model results for 2010
East Coast Offshore Wind In areas of CF>45% (8.8-9.9 m/s) and excluding 1/3 of area 173 GW avg. power 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 9.9
19 GW < 30 m depth 37 GW < 50 m 117 GW < 200 m
US electricity demand: 454 GW (EIA, 2009) Dvorak, M.J., Corcoran, B.A., McIntyre, N.G., Jacobson, M.Z.. Offshore wind energy resource characterization of the US East Coast. In preparation.
Water Consumed to Run U.S. Vehicles Corn-E85 15000
Cel-E85
Hydro-BEV
0
Nuc-BEV CCS-BEV
5000
Geo-BEV Tidal-BEV Wave-BEV
10000
Wind-BEV Wind-HFCV CSP-BEV PV-BEV
Water consumption (Ggal/year)
20000
U.S. water demand = 150,000 Ggal/yr
Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security – Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009) Electric Power Vehicles Recommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS) 1. Wind 3. Geothermal 5. PV 7. Hydroelectricity
2. CSP 4. Tidal 6. Wave
WWS-Battery-Electric WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Not Recommended Nuclear Coal-CCS Natural gas, biomass
Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanol Soy, algae biodiesel Compressed natural gas
Powering the World on Renewables Global end-use power demand 2010 12.5 TW Global end-use power demand 2030 with current fuels 16.9 TW Global end-use power demand 2030 converting all energy to windwater-sun (WWS) and electricty/H2 11.5 TW (30% reduction)
Conversion to electricity, H reduces power demand 30%
Number of Plants or Devices to Power World Technology
Percent Supply 2030
Number
5-MW wind turbines 50% 3.8 mill. (0.8% in place) 0.75-MW wave devices 1 720,000 100-MW geothermal plants 4 5350 (1.7% in place) 1300-MW hydro plants 4 900 (70% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines 1 490,000 3-kW Roof PV systems 6 1.7 billion 300-MW Solar PV plants 14 40,000 300-MW CSP plants 20 49,000 ____ 100%
World Wind Speeds at 100m 90 10
8
0 6
4
-90
2 -180
-90
0
90
180
All wind worldwide: 1700 TW; All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-170 TW World power demand 2030: 16.9 TW
World Surface Solar 90
Surface downward solar radiation (W/m2) (global avg: 193; land: 183) 250
200 0 150
100 -90 -180
-90
0
90
All solar worldwide: 6500 TW; All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TW World power demand 2030: 16.9 TW
180
Methods of addressing variability of WWS 1. Interconnecting geographically-dispersed WWS resources 2. Bundling WWS resources as one commodity and using hydroelectricity to fill in gaps in supply 3. Using demand-response management
4. Oversizing peak generation capacity and producing hydrogen with excess for industry, transportation 5. Storing electric power on site or in BEVs (e.g., VTG) 6. Forecasting winds and cloudiness better to reduce reserves
Matching Hourly Demand With WWS Supply by Aggregating Sites and Bundling WWS Resources – Least Cost Optimization for California For 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006, delivered CA elec. carbon free. Can oversize WWS capacity, use demand-response, forecast, store to reduce NG backup more
Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/
Desertec
www.dw-world.de/image/0,,4470611_1,00.jpg
Resources for Nd2O3 (Tg) Used in Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators Country
China CIS U.S. Australia India Others World
Resources
16 3.8 2.1 1 0.2 4.1 27.3
Current production:
Needed to power 50% of world with wind
4.4 (0.1 Tg/yr for 44 years)
periodictable.com
0.022 Tg/yr Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
Resources for Lithium (Tg) Used in Batteries Country
Bolivia Chile China U.S. Argentina Brazil Other World land Oceans
Resources
9 7.5 5.4 4 2.6 1 3.5 33 240
Possible number of vehicles @10kg/each
with current known land resources
www.saltsale.com
3.3 billion+ (currently 800 million) Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh) Energy Technology
2005-2010
Wind onshore Wind offshore Wave Geothermal Hydroelectric CSP Solar PV Tidal Conventional (+Externalities)
4-7 10-17 >>11 4-7 4 11-15 >20 >>11 7 (+5)=12
2020-2030
≤4 8-13 4-11 4-7 4 8 10 5-7 8 (+5.5) =13.5 Delucchi & Jacobson (2010)
Long-Distance Transmission Costs (2007 $US) for Transmission 1200-2000 km Low
Cost of l.d. transmission (¢/kWh) 0.3
Med
High
1.2
3.2
Delucchi & Jacobson (2010)
Summary 2030 electricity cost 4-10¢/kWh for most, 8-13 for some WWS , vs. fossil-fuel 8 + 5.5 externality = 13.5¢/kWh Includes long-distance transmission (1200-2000 km) ~1¢/kWh Requires only 0.41% more of world land for footprint; 0.59% for spacing (compared w/40% of world land for cropland and pasture) Eliminates 2.5-3 million air pollution deaths/year Eliminates global warming, provides energy stability
Summary, cont. Converting to Wind, Water, & Sun (WWS) and electricity/H2 will reduce global power demand by 30% Methods of addressing WWS variability: (a) interconnecting geographically-dispersed WWS; (b) bundling WWS and using hydro to fill in gaps; (c) demand-response; (d) oversizing peak capacity and producing hydrogen with excess for industry, vehicles; (e) onsite storage; (f) forecasting Materials are not limits although recycling may be needed. Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics. Papers: www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html
Ecofriend.org
Zmships.eu
Electric ship
Ec.europa.eu
Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater
Midlandpower.com
Conservpros.com
Adaptivebuilders.com
Heat pump water heater
Lifecycle CO2e of Electricity Sources Low Est.
High Est.
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
50 0 Wind
CSP
Solar-PV
Geoth
Tidal
Wave
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal-CCS
Time Between Planning & Operation Nuclear:
10 - 19 y (life 40 y) Site permit: 3.5 - 6 y Construction permit approval and issue 2.5 - 4 y Construction time 4 - 9 years
Hydroelectric: Coal-CCS: Geothermal: Ethanol, CSP, Solar-PV, Wave, Tidal, Wind:
8 - 16 y (life 80 y) 6 - 11 y (life 35 y) 3 - 6 y (life 35 y) 2 - 5 y (life 40 y)
CO2e From Current Power Mix due to Planning-to-Operation Delays, Relative to Wind Low Est.
High Est.
150
100
50
0 Wind
CSP
Solar-PV
Geoth
Tidal
Wave
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal-CCS
Total CO2e of Electricity Sources Low Est.
High Est.
600 550
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Wind
CSP
Solar-PV
Geoth
Tidal
Wave
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal-CCS
Percent change in all U.S. CO2 emissions 50
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Maximum reduction is 33%
40
Corn-E85 Cel-E85
Wind-BEV Wind-HFCV CSP-BEV PV-BEV Geo-BEV Tidal-BEV Wave-BEV Hydro-BEV Nuc-BEV CCS-BEV
Change in U.S. CO2 (%) From Converting to BEVs, HFCVs, or E85
Low/High U.S. Air Pollution Deaths/yr For 2020 Upon Conversion of U.S. Vehicle Fleet Nuclear Terrorism or War
Low Est.
High Est.
27000 24000 21000 18000
15000 12000 9000 6000 3000 0
Wind Wind BEV HFCV
CSP BEV
PV BEV
Geo BEV
Tidal BEV
Wave Hydro Nuclear CCS BEV BEV BEV BEV
Corn E85
Cell Gasoline E85
Wind Footprints
Pro.corbins.com
Pro.corbins.com
www.eng.uoo.ca
www.npower-renewables.com
www.offshore-power.net
Nuclear Footprints
wwwdelivery.superstock.com; Pro.corbis.com; Eyeball-series.org; xs124.xs.to
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Wind-BEV Footprint 1-2.8 km2 Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US
Cellulosic E85 4.7-35.4% of US
Nuclear-BEV 0.05-0.062% Footprint 33% of total; the rest is buffer
Corn E85 9.8-17.6% of US
Geoth BEV 0.006-0.008%
Solar PV-BEV 0.077-0.18%
90m WRF-ARW model results for 2010
East Coast Offshore Wind In areas of CF>45% (8.8-9.9 m/s) and excluding 1/3 of area 173 GW avg. power 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 9.9
19 GW < 30 m depth 37 GW < 50 m 117 GW < 200 m
US electricity demand: 454 GW (EIA, 2009) Dvorak, M.J., Corcoran, B.A., McIntyre, N.G., Jacobson, M.Z.. Offshore wind energy resource characterization of the US East Coast. In preparation.
Water Consumed to Run U.S. Vehicles Corn-E85 15000
Cel-E85
Hydro-BEV
0
Nuc-BEV CCS-BEV
5000
Geo-BEV Tidal-BEV Wave-BEV
10000
Wind-BEV Wind-HFCV CSP-BEV PV-BEV
Water consumption (Ggal/year)
20000
U.S. water demand = 150,000 Ggal/yr
Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security – Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009) Electric Power Vehicles Recommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS) 1. Wind 3. Geothermal 5. PV 7. Hydroelectricity
2. CSP 4. Tidal 6. Wave
WWS-Battery-Electric WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Not Recommended Nuclear Coal-CCS Natural gas, biomass
Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanol Soy, algae biodiesel Compressed natural gas
Powering the World on Renewables Global end-use power demand 2010 12.5 TW Global end-use power demand 2030 with current fuels 16.9 TW Global end-use power demand 2030 converting all energy to windwater-sun (WWS) and electricty/H2 11.5 TW (30% reduction)
Conversion to electricity, H reduces power demand 30%
Number of Plants or Devices to Power World Technology
Percent Supply 2030
Number
5-MW wind turbines 50% 3.8 mill. (0.8% in place) 0.75-MW wave devices 1 720,000 100-MW geothermal plants 4 5350 (1.7% in place) 1300-MW hydro plants 4 900 (70% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines 1 490,000 3-kW Roof PV systems 6 1.7 billion 300-MW Solar PV plants 14 40,000 300-MW CSP plants 20 49,000 ____ 100%
World Wind Speeds at 100m 90 10
8
0 6
4
-90
2 -180
-90
0
90
180
All wind worldwide: 1700 TW; All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-170 TW World power demand 2030: 16.9 TW
World Surface Solar 90
Surface downward solar radiation (W/m2) (global avg: 193; land: 183) 250
200 0 150
100 -90 -180
-90
0
90
All solar worldwide: 6500 TW; All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TW World power demand 2030: 16.9 TW
180
Methods of addressing variability of WWS 1. Interconnecting geographically-dispersed WWS resources 2. Bundling WWS resources as one commodity and using hydroelectricity to fill in gaps in supply 3. Using demand-response management
4. Oversizing peak generation capacity and producing hydrogen with excess for industry, transportation 5. Storing electric power on site or in BEVs (e.g., VTG) 6. Forecasting winds and cloudiness better to reduce reserves
Matching Hourly Demand With WWS Supply by Aggregating Sites and Bundling WWS Resources – Least Cost Optimization for California For 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006, delivered CA elec. carbon free. Can oversize WWS capacity, use demand-response, forecast, store to reduce NG backup more
Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/
Desertec
www.dw-world.de/image/0,,4470611_1,00.jpg
Resources for Nd2O3 (Tg) Used in Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators Country
China CIS U.S. Australia India Others World
Resources
16 3.8 2.1 1 0.2 4.1 27.3
Current production:
Needed to power 50% of world with wind
4.4 (0.1 Tg/yr for 44 years)
periodictable.com
0.022 Tg/yr Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
Resources for Lithium (Tg) Used in Batteries Country
Bolivia Chile China U.S. Argentina Brazil Other World land Oceans
Resources
9 7.5 5.4 4 2.6 1 3.5 33 240
Possible number of vehicles @10kg/each
with current known land resources
www.saltsale.com
3.3 billion+ (currently 800 million) Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh) Energy Technology
2005-2010
Wind onshore Wind offshore Wave Geothermal Hydroelectric CSP Solar PV Tidal Conventional (+Externalities)
4-7 10-17 >>11 4-7 4 11-15 >20 >>11 7 (+5)=12
2020-2030
≤4 8-13 4-11 4-7 4 8 10 5-7 8 (+5.5) =13.5 Delucchi & Jacobson (2010)
Long-Distance Transmission Costs (2007 $US) for Transmission 1200-2000 km Low
Cost of l.d. transmission (¢/kWh) 0.3
Med
High
1.2
3.2
Delucchi & Jacobson (2010)
Summary 2030 electricity cost 4-10¢/kWh for most, 8-13 for some WWS , vs. fossil-fuel 8 + 5.5 externality = 13.5¢/kWh Includes long-distance transmission (1200-2000 km) ~1¢/kWh Requires only 0.41% more of world land for footprint; 0.59% for spacing (compared w/40% of world land for cropland and pasture) Eliminates 2.5-3 million air pollution deaths/year Eliminates global warming, provides energy stability
Summary, cont. Converting to Wind, Water, & Sun (WWS) and electricity/H2 will reduce global power demand by 30% Methods of addressing WWS variability: (a) interconnecting geographically-dispersed WWS; (b) bundling WWS and using hydro to fill in gaps; (c) demand-response; (d) oversizing peak capacity and producing hydrogen with excess for industry, vehicles; (e) onsite storage; (f) forecasting Materials are not limits although recycling may be needed. Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics. Papers: www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html
