Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems - Navigant Research
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Vehicle, Smart Grid, and Utility IT Systems for Data Analytics, Smart Charging Management, and Customer Information Management NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger research report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Pike Research at [email protected] Published 3Q 2010
John Gartner Senior Analyst Clint Wheelock Managing Director
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems
Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1
Introduction The second comeback of the electric vehicle (EV) in little more than a decade has a much greater likelihood of success and will have a transformative effect on driving habits as well as the automotive and electric power industries. Automakers are planning to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year that plug in starting in 2012. By 2015, Pike Research forecasts that more than 1 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and EVs will be sold annually around the world, and during that year, more than 3 million EVs sold to date will be plugging in to recharge their batteries.
Chart 1.1
Cumulative PHEV/EV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015 3.5 3.0
Millions
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Source: Pike Research)
EVs can draw power via standard 110 V outlets, but the vast majority of charging sessions are expected to occur via electric vehicle service equipment (EVSE) that will monitor power quality and can deliver power much faster than a standard outlet when Level 2 (up to 6.7 kW) charging is utilized. Both residential and commercial EVSEs monitor power quality and contain intelligence that enables charging to be scheduled based on the time of day, grid conditions, or the cost of electricity. Investments in EVSE have begun in advance of EV sales, and are expected to be sold on a greater unit basis than the vehicles. By 2015, more than 4.7 million charge spots (residential and commercial) will be installed.
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
1
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Chart 1.2
Installed EV Charging Equipment, World Markets: 2010-2015 6 5
Millions
4 3 2 1 0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Source: Pike Research)
The majority of EVSEs will be networked and managed via IT and communications systems that aggregate power demand and enable a coordinated response to changing grid conditions. IT systems are necessary since, while during the early part of the decade, EVs will not immediately impact utilities' ability to keep up with the aggregated demand, the impact on distribution assets that deliver power to customers could be immediate in some areas. EVs are expected to be purchased in clusters around neighborhoods that have historically seen high adoption of hybrid vehicles. (Nissan and GM, the first companies to offer the new EVs in the United States, will initially sell vehicles in only a few coastal states plus Arizona, Michigan, and Texas.) If multiple EVs plug in simultaneously at the Level 2 charge rate into a single transformer (built to provide power to three-to-five households), the power draw could exceed the rated transformer capacity, resulting in equipment failures. As thousands of EVs begin to plug in daily, peak demand at the conclusion of the work day could be increased if intelligence is not built into the charging process. EV IT systems are needed to automatically manage charging; during times of extreme weather, demand can exceed supply throughout the day. With a comprehensive EV management system that can respond to grid signals, EV charging is not expected to require the addition of any generation resources. Utilities view EV IT systems as key to maximizing the use of renewable power, such as wind energy, which is generally strongest at night when demand is low. Through a smart charging system, EVs can absorb excess renewable power, and also be used as a replacement for fossil fuel power plants for grid services, such as frequency regulation and spinning reserves. Smart charging can maximize the use of clean energy and reduce the carbon emissions of the electricity used to power EVs.
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
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Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems EV IT systems that enable customers to schedule charging based on price signals, allowing EV owners to reduce their cost of charging and specify the use of only renewable energy will prompt future EV sales. Through these systems, customers will be able to monitor and manage charging online, from within the vehicle's information system, and through mobile phones. Investments in EV IT systems are initially focusing on collecting data and presenting it to consumers, with $125 million invested globally in 2010. By 2015, we forecast that annual investment will grow by more than tenfold as data analytics and integration with utilities' internal information systems becomes paramount. Investments in EV IT in the United States will grow to $371.9 million in 2015, representing 24.5% of the global market ($1.5 billion). The Asia-Pacific region, led by China, will be the largest market by far for EV IT. Chart 1.3
EV IT Investment by Region, World Markets: 2010-2015 $1,600 $1,400
Millions ($)
$1,200
Africa/Middle East
$1,000
Asia-Pacific
$800
Eastern Europe
$600
Western Europe Latin America
$400
North America
$200 $0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Source: Pike Research)
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
3
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Chart 1.4
EV IT Investment by Segment, United States: 2010-2015 $400 $350
Data Analytics
Millions ($)
$300 $250
Smart Charging Management
$200 $150 $100
Customer Information Management
$50 $0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Source: Pike Research)
Utilities historically have not had the interest, motivation, or resources to develop advanced IT systems, but the promise of the smart grid and the launch of the EV market require a change in philosophy. Companies including EVSE vendors, smart grid companies, thirdparty energy aggregators, and communications companies are all developing technologies to provide EV IT services to utilities. Utilities are likely to outsource and partner to develop systems for optimizing EV charging, but most utilities that are currently evaluating the impact of EV charging on the grid do not view investment in IT as an urgent priority today. Therefore, utility service providers currently investing in IT are likely to require several years before they can expect substantial revenue streams from utilities. In many cases, service providers will charge fees for developing the communications and data exchange between vehicles/EVSEs and utilities, and then provide ongoing "software as a service" licenses on an annual basis. By 2013, utilities will begin investing in EV IT systems and services so that the aggregated load of EVs can be managed as an asset and integrated into their demand response (DR) and other energy management systems. The focus in investment will shift towards data analytics and integration applications, making up more than half of EV IT investment globally by 2015. The implementation of EV IT systems will be slowed by a lack of standards for sharing information between utilities and external systems. The automotive, home networking, smart grid, and utility industries are collaborating with organizations, such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), in developing standards to establish firsttime interoperability with grid equipment, and many of these standards will not be completed until 2012 or later. The participation of utilities, automakers, and dozens of other stakeholders in the development of the standards will prolong the ratification process. The lack of standards today will encourage many companies to hold off on investment until interoperable products are released. Some of these systems will share information over the smart grid's emerging advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) platform, but that infrastructure is not yet available in many service territories. Utilities that are deploying © 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
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Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems AMI and other smart grid technologies are likely to incorporate EV IT systems into their overall smart grid rollout schedule. The strong regulation of utilities in the United States will also slow adoption of EV IT systems relative to other regions. Utilities in many areas are discouraged from making long-term investments in technology unless the benefit to rate-payers can be clearly proven. Utilities in Asia and Europe that have greater freedom to own and operate charging equipment are more likely to install EV IT systems since they will be able to control and reap the benefits across the entire value chain of providing power for EVs. The understanding of the benefits of EV IT across all aspects of grid operations including load management, the use of renewable power, and being able to avoid capital investment in generation and transmission equipment, are not well known today. Greater knowledge of the lifetime value of EV IT systems including the financial benefits from reducing carbon emissions would make it easier for utilities to justify the investment. EVSE vendors are developing charging equipment and display interfaces that they hope will create product differentiation. However, in creating products that are unique (e.g., using a variety of cards or wireless devices for payment), EVSE vendors may be discouraging EV owners from using public equipment with which they are unfamiliar. This could impact the utilization of public charging spots.
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
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Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems
Section 9 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 1 Section 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 Market Issues .............................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 EV Charging Market Overview ...................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 Impact on Peak Demand ......................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 The State of EV IT ................................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2.1 The EV Project................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.2.2 ChargePoint America...................................................................................................... 8 2.2 EV IT Ecosystem Participants ....................................................................................................... 8 2.3 IT Systems Impacted .................................................................................................................. 10 2.3.1 EVSE Charging Systems ...................................................................................................... 10 2.3.1.1 Chargers ....................................................................................................................... 10 2.3.1.2 Smart Charging............................................................................................................. 10 2.3.1.3 Remote EVSE Administration ....................................................................................... 12 2.3.1.4 Communication/Networking .......................................................................................... 12 2.3.2 Advanced Metering Infrastructure/Smart Meters .................................................................. 13 2.3.3 Home Area Networks ............................................................................................................ 13 2.3.4 Home Energy Management Systems ................................................................................... 14 2.3.5 Utility Systems ....................................................................................................................... 14 2.3.5.1 Distribution Automation Systems .................................................................................. 14 2.3.5.2 Demand Response Systems ........................................................................................ 15 2.3.6 Vehicle Information Systems ................................................................................................. 15 2.3.7 Mobile Phones ....................................................................................................................... 15 2.4 Market Drivers ............................................................................................................................. 15 2.4.1 Preventing Increase in Peak Demand ................................................................................... 15 2.4.2 Reduced Emissions ............................................................................................................... 16 2.4.3 Benefits to Participant Groups............................................................................................... 17 2.4.3.1 Utilities .......................................................................................................................... 17 2.4.3.2 Automakers ................................................................................................................... 17 2.4.3.3 Charging Equipment Operators .................................................................................... 17 2.4.3.4 EV Owners/Operators................................................................................................... 17 2.4.3.5 Energy Services Companies ........................................................................................ 18 2.4.4 EV Sales ................................................................................................................................ 18 2.4.5 Smart Grid ............................................................................................................................. 18 2.4.6 Increased Use of Renewables .............................................................................................. 18 2.4.7 Low Carbon Fuel Standards.................................................................................................. 18 2.5 Barriers ........................................................................................................................................ 19 2.5.1 Lack of Standards ................................................................................................................. 19 2.5.2 Intersection of Multiple Markets............................................................................................. 19 2.5.3 Utilities' Cautious Philosophy ................................................................................................ 19 2.5.4 Utility Legacy Systems .......................................................................................................... 19 2.5.5 Uncertain Financial Benefits.................................................................................................. 20
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
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Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Section 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Marketability and Commercialization ...................................................................................................... 21 3.1 Service Provider Roles ................................................................................................................ 21 3.1.1 EVSE Services ...................................................................................................................... 22 3.1.1.1 Partners ........................................................................................................................ 22 3.1.1.2 Ancillary Services ......................................................................................................... 22 3.1.1.3 Demand Response ....................................................................................................... 22 3.1.1.4 V2G Services ................................................................................................................ 22 3.1.1.5 New Services for Utilities .............................................................................................. 23 3.1.2 Smart Grid/Utility Service Providers ...................................................................................... 23 3.1.2.1 Partners ........................................................................................................................ 23 3.1.3 Grid Infrastructure/Utility Integrators ..................................................................................... 23 3.1.3.1 Partners ........................................................................................................................ 24 3.1.4 Energy Aggregators .............................................................................................................. 24 3.1.4.1 Partners ........................................................................................................................ 24 3.2 Revenue and Cost ...................................................................................................................... 24 3.2.1 Transaction Costs ................................................................................................................. 24 3.3 Implementation Issues ................................................................................................................ 25 3.3.1 Connecting with Utility Systems ............................................................................................ 25 3.3.2 Smart Grid Upgrades ............................................................................................................ 25 3.3.3 Integrated Customer Billing ................................................................................................... 25 3.3.4 Data Aggregation .................................................................................................................. 25 3.3.5 Data Center Operations ........................................................................................................ 26 3.3.6 Algorithms.............................................................................................................................. 27 3.3.7 Security.................................................................................................................................. 27 3.3.8 Overlap in Service Offering ................................................................................................... 28 3.4 Workplace Systems .................................................................................................................... 29 3.5 Fleet Management ...................................................................................................................... 29 Section 4 .................................................................................................................................................... 30 Technology Issues .................................................................................................................................... 30 4.1 Communications Pathways ......................................................................................................... 30 4.1.1 Cellular Networks .................................................................................................................. 30 4.1.2 Advanced Metering Infrastructure ......................................................................................... 31 4.1.3 AMI versus Cellular ............................................................................................................... 32 4.1.3.1 Role of Smart Meters .................................................................................................... 33 4.2 Standards .................................................................................................................................... 33 4.2.1 Equipment Connection Standard .......................................................................................... 34 4.2.2 Rapid Charging Connector .................................................................................................... 35 4.2.3 Energy Transfer Standard J2847 .......................................................................................... 35 4.2.4 Messaging Standard J2836................................................................................................... 35 4.2.5 EV to Utility J2293 ................................................................................................................. 36 4.2.6 IEEE P2030.1 ........................................................................................................................ 36 4.2.7 IEEE P1547.8 ........................................................................................................................ 36 4.2.8 IEC Standards ....................................................................................................................... 36 4.2.9 ZigBee Smart Energy 2.0 ...................................................................................................... 36 4.2.10 NIST Standards................................................................................................................. 37 4.2.11 V2G Services .................................................................................................................... 37
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
60
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Section 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 38 Key Industry Players................................................................................................................................. 38 5.1 EV IT Service Providers .............................................................................................................. 38 5.1.1 ABB Group ............................................................................................................................ 38 5.1.2 Better Place ........................................................................................................................... 38 5.1.3 Burt Automotive ..................................................................................................................... 38 5.1.4 ClipperCreek.......................................................................................................................... 38 5.1.5 Coulomb Technologies.......................................................................................................... 39 5.1.6 Eaton Corporation ................................................................................................................. 39 5.1.7 ECOtality ............................................................................................................................... 39 5.1.8 eMeter ................................................................................................................................... 40 5.1.9 Ford Motor Company ............................................................................................................ 40 5.1.10 GE Energy......................................................................................................................... 40 5.1.11 Grid2Home ........................................................................................................................ 40 5.1.12 GridPoint ........................................................................................................................... 40 5.1.13 IBM .................................................................................................................................... 41 5.1.14 Itochu Corporation............................................................................................................. 41 5.1.15 Microsoft ............................................................................................................................ 41 5.1.16 Nissan ............................................................................................................................... 41 5.1.17 Optimization Technologies ................................................................................................ 42 5.1.18 Shorepower Technologies ................................................................................................ 42 5.1.19 Siemens Energy ................................................................................................................ 42 5.1.20 Silver Spring Networks ...................................................................................................... 42 5.1.21 SmartSynch....................................................................................................................... 42 5.1.22 Tendril Networks ............................................................................................................... 43 5.2 Utilities ......................................................................................................................................... 43 5.2.1 Austin Energy ........................................................................................................................ 43 5.2.2 BC Hydro ............................................................................................................................... 43 5.2.3 Dong Energy.......................................................................................................................... 43 5.2.4 Duke Energy .......................................................................................................................... 43 5.2.5 Florida Power & Light ............................................................................................................ 44 5.2.6 NRG Energy .......................................................................................................................... 44 5.2.7 Pacific Gas & Electric ............................................................................................................ 44 5.2.8 Portland General Electric ...................................................................................................... 44 5.2.9 RWE AG ................................................................................................................................ 44 5.2.10 San Diego Gas & Electric ................................................................................................. 44 5.2.11 Xcel Energy ....................................................................................................................... 45 Section 6 .................................................................................................................................................... 46 Market Forecasts....................................................................................................................................... 46 6.1 Market Segmentation .................................................................................................................. 46 6.1.1 Customer Information Management ...................................................................................... 46 6.1.2 Smart Charging Management ............................................................................................... 47 6.1.3 Data Analytics........................................................................................................................ 47 6.2 World Markets ............................................................................................................................. 48 6.2.1 North America........................................................................................................................ 49 6.2.2 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 50 6.2.2.1 Denmark ....................................................................................................................... 50 6.2.3 Asia-Pacific ............................................................................................................................ 51 6.2.4 Africa/Middle East ................................................................................................................. 51 Section 7 .................................................................................................................................................... 52 Company Directory ................................................................................................................................... 52 Electric Vehicle & Smart Grid Services Companies ............................................................................... 52 Utilities Participating in EV Charging ...................................................................................................... 55
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
61
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Section 8 .................................................................................................................................................... 56 Acronym and Abbreviation List ............................................................................................................... 56 Section 9 .................................................................................................................................................... 59 Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 59 Section 10 .................................................................................................................................................. 63 Table of Charts and Figures..................................................................................................................... 63 Section 11 .................................................................................................................................................. 64 Scope of Study .......................................................................................................................................... 64 Sources and Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 64 Notes .......................................................................................................................................................... 65
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
62
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems
Section 10 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Chart 1.2 Chart 1.3 Chart 1.4 Chart 3.1 Chart 6.1 Chart 6.2 Chart 6.3 Chart 6.4 Chart 6.5
Cumulative PHEV/EV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015 ....................................................... 1 Installed EV Charging Equipment, World Markets: 2010-2015............................................... 2 EV IT Investment by Region, World Markets: 2010-2015 ....................................................... 3 EV IT Investment by Segment, United States: 2010-2015 ..................................................... 4 EV Management Systems Cyber Security Revenue, United States: 2010-2015 ................. 28 EV IT Investment by Segment, World Markets: 2015 ........................................................... 46 EV IT Investment by Region, World Markets: 2010-2015 ..................................................... 48 EV IT Investment Share by Region, World Markets: 2015 ................................................... 48 EV IT Investment by Application, United States: 2010-2015 ................................................ 49 EV IT Investment, Western Europe: 2010-2015 ................................................................... 50
Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 2.4 Figure 2.5 Figure 3.1 Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2 Figure 4.3 Figure 4.4
Hourly Impact of Unmanaged EV Charging ............................................................................ 6 EV Charging Data Sharing .................................................................................................... 10 ECOtality Blink Networked Charging Station ........................................................................ 11 EVSE Network Administration ............................................................................................... 13 EV Charging Scenario without Intelligence or Incentives to Control Behaviors .................... 16 GridPoint's EV Charging Data Logging Application .............................................................. 26 Communications Pathway Systems ...................................................................................... 30 Advanced Metering Infrastructure ......................................................................................... 32 EV Connection Standards ..................................................................................................... 33 SAE J1772 Connector ........................................................................................................... 34
Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 3.1 Table 4.1
EV Project Equipment ............................................................................................................. 7 EV IT System Participants....................................................................................................... 9 IT Players’ Roles in Integrating EV Data ............................................................................... 21 SAE Standards in Development ............................................................................................ 35
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
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Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems
Section 11 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants involved in the automotive and utility services markets with a study of the information technology requirements for effectively managing the charging of plug-in and electric vehicles. Its major objective is to objectively assess the applications and equipment that will be required by utilities and their partners to monitor and control the impact of vehicle charging on the grid. We evaluate the likely business models for providing services to utilities and consumer services for managing vehicle charging and related services. The report’s purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and industries covered, but rather a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Pike Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included. The forecast period extends through 2015.
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research’s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research’s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities, and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research’s analysts and the firm’s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst’s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research’s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
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Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems
NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value ÷ Start Year Value)(1/steps) – 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2010 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
65
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems
Published 3Q 2010 ©2010 Pike Research LLC 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO 80302 USA Tel: +1 303.997.7609 http://www.pikeresearch.com
This publication is provided by Pike Research LLC (“Pike”). This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed or used without the express written permission of Pike. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Pike makes no claim to any Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication). If you do not have a license from Pike covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Pike to obtain a license to this publication.
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
66
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Vehicle, Smart Grid, and Utility IT Systems for Data Analytics, Smart Charging Management, and Customer Information Management NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger research report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Pike Research at [email protected] Published 3Q 2010
John Gartner Senior Analyst Clint Wheelock Managing Director
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems
Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1
Introduction The second comeback of the electric vehicle (EV) in little more than a decade has a much greater likelihood of success and will have a transformative effect on driving habits as well as the automotive and electric power industries. Automakers are planning to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year that plug in starting in 2012. By 2015, Pike Research forecasts that more than 1 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and EVs will be sold annually around the world, and during that year, more than 3 million EVs sold to date will be plugging in to recharge their batteries.
Chart 1.1
Cumulative PHEV/EV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015 3.5 3.0
Millions
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Source: Pike Research)
EVs can draw power via standard 110 V outlets, but the vast majority of charging sessions are expected to occur via electric vehicle service equipment (EVSE) that will monitor power quality and can deliver power much faster than a standard outlet when Level 2 (up to 6.7 kW) charging is utilized. Both residential and commercial EVSEs monitor power quality and contain intelligence that enables charging to be scheduled based on the time of day, grid conditions, or the cost of electricity. Investments in EVSE have begun in advance of EV sales, and are expected to be sold on a greater unit basis than the vehicles. By 2015, more than 4.7 million charge spots (residential and commercial) will be installed.
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
1
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Chart 1.2
Installed EV Charging Equipment, World Markets: 2010-2015 6 5
Millions
4 3 2 1 0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Source: Pike Research)
The majority of EVSEs will be networked and managed via IT and communications systems that aggregate power demand and enable a coordinated response to changing grid conditions. IT systems are necessary since, while during the early part of the decade, EVs will not immediately impact utilities' ability to keep up with the aggregated demand, the impact on distribution assets that deliver power to customers could be immediate in some areas. EVs are expected to be purchased in clusters around neighborhoods that have historically seen high adoption of hybrid vehicles. (Nissan and GM, the first companies to offer the new EVs in the United States, will initially sell vehicles in only a few coastal states plus Arizona, Michigan, and Texas.) If multiple EVs plug in simultaneously at the Level 2 charge rate into a single transformer (built to provide power to three-to-five households), the power draw could exceed the rated transformer capacity, resulting in equipment failures. As thousands of EVs begin to plug in daily, peak demand at the conclusion of the work day could be increased if intelligence is not built into the charging process. EV IT systems are needed to automatically manage charging; during times of extreme weather, demand can exceed supply throughout the day. With a comprehensive EV management system that can respond to grid signals, EV charging is not expected to require the addition of any generation resources. Utilities view EV IT systems as key to maximizing the use of renewable power, such as wind energy, which is generally strongest at night when demand is low. Through a smart charging system, EVs can absorb excess renewable power, and also be used as a replacement for fossil fuel power plants for grid services, such as frequency regulation and spinning reserves. Smart charging can maximize the use of clean energy and reduce the carbon emissions of the electricity used to power EVs.
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
2
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems EV IT systems that enable customers to schedule charging based on price signals, allowing EV owners to reduce their cost of charging and specify the use of only renewable energy will prompt future EV sales. Through these systems, customers will be able to monitor and manage charging online, from within the vehicle's information system, and through mobile phones. Investments in EV IT systems are initially focusing on collecting data and presenting it to consumers, with $125 million invested globally in 2010. By 2015, we forecast that annual investment will grow by more than tenfold as data analytics and integration with utilities' internal information systems becomes paramount. Investments in EV IT in the United States will grow to $371.9 million in 2015, representing 24.5% of the global market ($1.5 billion). The Asia-Pacific region, led by China, will be the largest market by far for EV IT. Chart 1.3
EV IT Investment by Region, World Markets: 2010-2015 $1,600 $1,400
Millions ($)
$1,200
Africa/Middle East
$1,000
Asia-Pacific
$800
Eastern Europe
$600
Western Europe Latin America
$400
North America
$200 $0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Source: Pike Research)
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
3
Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Chart 1.4
EV IT Investment by Segment, United States: 2010-2015 $400 $350
Data Analytics
Millions ($)
$300 $250
Smart Charging Management
$200 $150 $100
Customer Information Management
$50 $0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Source: Pike Research)
Utilities historically have not had the interest, motivation, or resources to develop advanced IT systems, but the promise of the smart grid and the launch of the EV market require a change in philosophy. Companies including EVSE vendors, smart grid companies, thirdparty energy aggregators, and communications companies are all developing technologies to provide EV IT services to utilities. Utilities are likely to outsource and partner to develop systems for optimizing EV charging, but most utilities that are currently evaluating the impact of EV charging on the grid do not view investment in IT as an urgent priority today. Therefore, utility service providers currently investing in IT are likely to require several years before they can expect substantial revenue streams from utilities. In many cases, service providers will charge fees for developing the communications and data exchange between vehicles/EVSEs and utilities, and then provide ongoing "software as a service" licenses on an annual basis. By 2013, utilities will begin investing in EV IT systems and services so that the aggregated load of EVs can be managed as an asset and integrated into their demand response (DR) and other energy management systems. The focus in investment will shift towards data analytics and integration applications, making up more than half of EV IT investment globally by 2015. The implementation of EV IT systems will be slowed by a lack of standards for sharing information between utilities and external systems. The automotive, home networking, smart grid, and utility industries are collaborating with organizations, such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), in developing standards to establish firsttime interoperability with grid equipment, and many of these standards will not be completed until 2012 or later. The participation of utilities, automakers, and dozens of other stakeholders in the development of the standards will prolong the ratification process. The lack of standards today will encourage many companies to hold off on investment until interoperable products are released. Some of these systems will share information over the smart grid's emerging advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) platform, but that infrastructure is not yet available in many service territories. Utilities that are deploying © 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
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Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems AMI and other smart grid technologies are likely to incorporate EV IT systems into their overall smart grid rollout schedule. The strong regulation of utilities in the United States will also slow adoption of EV IT systems relative to other regions. Utilities in many areas are discouraged from making long-term investments in technology unless the benefit to rate-payers can be clearly proven. Utilities in Asia and Europe that have greater freedom to own and operate charging equipment are more likely to install EV IT systems since they will be able to control and reap the benefits across the entire value chain of providing power for EVs. The understanding of the benefits of EV IT across all aspects of grid operations including load management, the use of renewable power, and being able to avoid capital investment in generation and transmission equipment, are not well known today. Greater knowledge of the lifetime value of EV IT systems including the financial benefits from reducing carbon emissions would make it easier for utilities to justify the investment. EVSE vendors are developing charging equipment and display interfaces that they hope will create product differentiation. However, in creating products that are unique (e.g., using a variety of cards or wireless devices for payment), EVSE vendors may be discouraging EV owners from using public equipment with which they are unfamiliar. This could impact the utilization of public charging spots.
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Section 9 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 1 Section 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 Market Issues .............................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 EV Charging Market Overview ...................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 Impact on Peak Demand ......................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 The State of EV IT ................................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2.1 The EV Project................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.2.2 ChargePoint America...................................................................................................... 8 2.2 EV IT Ecosystem Participants ....................................................................................................... 8 2.3 IT Systems Impacted .................................................................................................................. 10 2.3.1 EVSE Charging Systems ...................................................................................................... 10 2.3.1.1 Chargers ....................................................................................................................... 10 2.3.1.2 Smart Charging............................................................................................................. 10 2.3.1.3 Remote EVSE Administration ....................................................................................... 12 2.3.1.4 Communication/Networking .......................................................................................... 12 2.3.2 Advanced Metering Infrastructure/Smart Meters .................................................................. 13 2.3.3 Home Area Networks ............................................................................................................ 13 2.3.4 Home Energy Management Systems ................................................................................... 14 2.3.5 Utility Systems ....................................................................................................................... 14 2.3.5.1 Distribution Automation Systems .................................................................................. 14 2.3.5.2 Demand Response Systems ........................................................................................ 15 2.3.6 Vehicle Information Systems ................................................................................................. 15 2.3.7 Mobile Phones ....................................................................................................................... 15 2.4 Market Drivers ............................................................................................................................. 15 2.4.1 Preventing Increase in Peak Demand ................................................................................... 15 2.4.2 Reduced Emissions ............................................................................................................... 16 2.4.3 Benefits to Participant Groups............................................................................................... 17 2.4.3.1 Utilities .......................................................................................................................... 17 2.4.3.2 Automakers ................................................................................................................... 17 2.4.3.3 Charging Equipment Operators .................................................................................... 17 2.4.3.4 EV Owners/Operators................................................................................................... 17 2.4.3.5 Energy Services Companies ........................................................................................ 18 2.4.4 EV Sales ................................................................................................................................ 18 2.4.5 Smart Grid ............................................................................................................................. 18 2.4.6 Increased Use of Renewables .............................................................................................. 18 2.4.7 Low Carbon Fuel Standards.................................................................................................. 18 2.5 Barriers ........................................................................................................................................ 19 2.5.1 Lack of Standards ................................................................................................................. 19 2.5.2 Intersection of Multiple Markets............................................................................................. 19 2.5.3 Utilities' Cautious Philosophy ................................................................................................ 19 2.5.4 Utility Legacy Systems .......................................................................................................... 19 2.5.5 Uncertain Financial Benefits.................................................................................................. 20
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Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Section 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Marketability and Commercialization ...................................................................................................... 21 3.1 Service Provider Roles ................................................................................................................ 21 3.1.1 EVSE Services ...................................................................................................................... 22 3.1.1.1 Partners ........................................................................................................................ 22 3.1.1.2 Ancillary Services ......................................................................................................... 22 3.1.1.3 Demand Response ....................................................................................................... 22 3.1.1.4 V2G Services ................................................................................................................ 22 3.1.1.5 New Services for Utilities .............................................................................................. 23 3.1.2 Smart Grid/Utility Service Providers ...................................................................................... 23 3.1.2.1 Partners ........................................................................................................................ 23 3.1.3 Grid Infrastructure/Utility Integrators ..................................................................................... 23 3.1.3.1 Partners ........................................................................................................................ 24 3.1.4 Energy Aggregators .............................................................................................................. 24 3.1.4.1 Partners ........................................................................................................................ 24 3.2 Revenue and Cost ...................................................................................................................... 24 3.2.1 Transaction Costs ................................................................................................................. 24 3.3 Implementation Issues ................................................................................................................ 25 3.3.1 Connecting with Utility Systems ............................................................................................ 25 3.3.2 Smart Grid Upgrades ............................................................................................................ 25 3.3.3 Integrated Customer Billing ................................................................................................... 25 3.3.4 Data Aggregation .................................................................................................................. 25 3.3.5 Data Center Operations ........................................................................................................ 26 3.3.6 Algorithms.............................................................................................................................. 27 3.3.7 Security.................................................................................................................................. 27 3.3.8 Overlap in Service Offering ................................................................................................... 28 3.4 Workplace Systems .................................................................................................................... 29 3.5 Fleet Management ...................................................................................................................... 29 Section 4 .................................................................................................................................................... 30 Technology Issues .................................................................................................................................... 30 4.1 Communications Pathways ......................................................................................................... 30 4.1.1 Cellular Networks .................................................................................................................. 30 4.1.2 Advanced Metering Infrastructure ......................................................................................... 31 4.1.3 AMI versus Cellular ............................................................................................................... 32 4.1.3.1 Role of Smart Meters .................................................................................................... 33 4.2 Standards .................................................................................................................................... 33 4.2.1 Equipment Connection Standard .......................................................................................... 34 4.2.2 Rapid Charging Connector .................................................................................................... 35 4.2.3 Energy Transfer Standard J2847 .......................................................................................... 35 4.2.4 Messaging Standard J2836................................................................................................... 35 4.2.5 EV to Utility J2293 ................................................................................................................. 36 4.2.6 IEEE P2030.1 ........................................................................................................................ 36 4.2.7 IEEE P1547.8 ........................................................................................................................ 36 4.2.8 IEC Standards ....................................................................................................................... 36 4.2.9 ZigBee Smart Energy 2.0 ...................................................................................................... 36 4.2.10 NIST Standards................................................................................................................. 37 4.2.11 V2G Services .................................................................................................................... 37
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Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Section 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 38 Key Industry Players................................................................................................................................. 38 5.1 EV IT Service Providers .............................................................................................................. 38 5.1.1 ABB Group ............................................................................................................................ 38 5.1.2 Better Place ........................................................................................................................... 38 5.1.3 Burt Automotive ..................................................................................................................... 38 5.1.4 ClipperCreek.......................................................................................................................... 38 5.1.5 Coulomb Technologies.......................................................................................................... 39 5.1.6 Eaton Corporation ................................................................................................................. 39 5.1.7 ECOtality ............................................................................................................................... 39 5.1.8 eMeter ................................................................................................................................... 40 5.1.9 Ford Motor Company ............................................................................................................ 40 5.1.10 GE Energy......................................................................................................................... 40 5.1.11 Grid2Home ........................................................................................................................ 40 5.1.12 GridPoint ........................................................................................................................... 40 5.1.13 IBM .................................................................................................................................... 41 5.1.14 Itochu Corporation............................................................................................................. 41 5.1.15 Microsoft ............................................................................................................................ 41 5.1.16 Nissan ............................................................................................................................... 41 5.1.17 Optimization Technologies ................................................................................................ 42 5.1.18 Shorepower Technologies ................................................................................................ 42 5.1.19 Siemens Energy ................................................................................................................ 42 5.1.20 Silver Spring Networks ...................................................................................................... 42 5.1.21 SmartSynch....................................................................................................................... 42 5.1.22 Tendril Networks ............................................................................................................... 43 5.2 Utilities ......................................................................................................................................... 43 5.2.1 Austin Energy ........................................................................................................................ 43 5.2.2 BC Hydro ............................................................................................................................... 43 5.2.3 Dong Energy.......................................................................................................................... 43 5.2.4 Duke Energy .......................................................................................................................... 43 5.2.5 Florida Power & Light ............................................................................................................ 44 5.2.6 NRG Energy .......................................................................................................................... 44 5.2.7 Pacific Gas & Electric ............................................................................................................ 44 5.2.8 Portland General Electric ...................................................................................................... 44 5.2.9 RWE AG ................................................................................................................................ 44 5.2.10 San Diego Gas & Electric ................................................................................................. 44 5.2.11 Xcel Energy ....................................................................................................................... 45 Section 6 .................................................................................................................................................... 46 Market Forecasts....................................................................................................................................... 46 6.1 Market Segmentation .................................................................................................................. 46 6.1.1 Customer Information Management ...................................................................................... 46 6.1.2 Smart Charging Management ............................................................................................... 47 6.1.3 Data Analytics........................................................................................................................ 47 6.2 World Markets ............................................................................................................................. 48 6.2.1 North America........................................................................................................................ 49 6.2.2 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 50 6.2.2.1 Denmark ....................................................................................................................... 50 6.2.3 Asia-Pacific ............................................................................................................................ 51 6.2.4 Africa/Middle East ................................................................................................................. 51 Section 7 .................................................................................................................................................... 52 Company Directory ................................................................................................................................... 52 Electric Vehicle & Smart Grid Services Companies ............................................................................... 52 Utilities Participating in EV Charging ...................................................................................................... 55
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Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Section 8 .................................................................................................................................................... 56 Acronym and Abbreviation List ............................................................................................................... 56 Section 9 .................................................................................................................................................... 59 Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 59 Section 10 .................................................................................................................................................. 63 Table of Charts and Figures..................................................................................................................... 63 Section 11 .................................................................................................................................................. 64 Scope of Study .......................................................................................................................................... 64 Sources and Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 64 Notes .......................................................................................................................................................... 65
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Section 10 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Chart 1.2 Chart 1.3 Chart 1.4 Chart 3.1 Chart 6.1 Chart 6.2 Chart 6.3 Chart 6.4 Chart 6.5
Cumulative PHEV/EV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015 ....................................................... 1 Installed EV Charging Equipment, World Markets: 2010-2015............................................... 2 EV IT Investment by Region, World Markets: 2010-2015 ....................................................... 3 EV IT Investment by Segment, United States: 2010-2015 ..................................................... 4 EV Management Systems Cyber Security Revenue, United States: 2010-2015 ................. 28 EV IT Investment by Segment, World Markets: 2015 ........................................................... 46 EV IT Investment by Region, World Markets: 2010-2015 ..................................................... 48 EV IT Investment Share by Region, World Markets: 2015 ................................................... 48 EV IT Investment by Application, United States: 2010-2015 ................................................ 49 EV IT Investment, Western Europe: 2010-2015 ................................................................... 50
Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 2.4 Figure 2.5 Figure 3.1 Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2 Figure 4.3 Figure 4.4
Hourly Impact of Unmanaged EV Charging ............................................................................ 6 EV Charging Data Sharing .................................................................................................... 10 ECOtality Blink Networked Charging Station ........................................................................ 11 EVSE Network Administration ............................................................................................... 13 EV Charging Scenario without Intelligence or Incentives to Control Behaviors .................... 16 GridPoint's EV Charging Data Logging Application .............................................................. 26 Communications Pathway Systems ...................................................................................... 30 Advanced Metering Infrastructure ......................................................................................... 32 EV Connection Standards ..................................................................................................... 33 SAE J1772 Connector ........................................................................................................... 34
Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 3.1 Table 4.1
EV Project Equipment ............................................................................................................. 7 EV IT System Participants....................................................................................................... 9 IT Players’ Roles in Integrating EV Data ............................................................................... 21 SAE Standards in Development ............................................................................................ 35
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Section 11 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants involved in the automotive and utility services markets with a study of the information technology requirements for effectively managing the charging of plug-in and electric vehicles. Its major objective is to objectively assess the applications and equipment that will be required by utilities and their partners to monitor and control the impact of vehicle charging on the grid. We evaluate the likely business models for providing services to utilities and consumer services for managing vehicle charging and related services. The report’s purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and industries covered, but rather a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Pike Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included. The forecast period extends through 2015.
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research’s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research’s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities, and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research’s analysts and the firm’s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst’s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research’s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.
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NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value ÷ Start Year Value)(1/steps) – 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2010 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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Published 3Q 2010 ©2010 Pike Research LLC 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO 80302 USA Tel: +1 303.997.7609 http://www.pikeresearch.com
This publication is provided by Pike Research LLC (“Pike”). This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed or used without the express written permission of Pike. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Pike makes no claim to any Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication). If you do not have a license from Pike covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Pike to obtain a license to this publication.
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