Electric Vehicles in Oregon
Electric Vehicles in Oregon Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption
John Gartner Research Director
Introduction Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy ecosystem. Sector Focus:
Research Services:
Smart Energy Smart Grid Smart Transportation Smart Industry Smart Buildings
Research Reports
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
Subscription Advisory Services Consulting & Custom Research • Go-To-Market Strategy • Custom Market Analysis • Market Sizing & Forecasts • Primary Research • Technology Evaluation • Commercial Due Diligence • Competitive Benchmarking • Strategic Advisory Sessions 2
Advisory Services SMART TRANSPORTATION
SMART GRID
SMART ENERGY Renewable Energy
Smart Meters
Electric Vehicles
Distributed Generation
Smart Energy Home
Alternative Fuel Vehicles
Fuel Cells
Smart Grid Infrastructure
Energy Storage
Microgrids
Advanced Batteries
Smart Grid Security
Utility Innovations
Smart Grid Communications
SMART INDUSTRY
SMART BUILDINGS
Energy Management
Building Systems
Green IT
Green Buildings
Industrial Innovations
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
3
Smart Transportation Practice
SMART TRANSPORTATION
Electric Vehicles
Alternative Fuel Vehicles
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
4
Electric Vehicles • • • •
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles • Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Battery Electric Vehicles • Consumer Attitudes, Hybrid Electric Vehicles Preferences, and Behavior Electric Vehicle Battery Technologies
Reports Published:
Future Reports (Subject to Change):
2Q12
2Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 4Q12 4Q12 4Q12 4Q12 4Q12
1Q12 4Q11 4Q11 4Q11 4Q11 4Q11 3Q11 3Q11 3Q11 2Q11 2Q11 1Q11 1Q11 4Q10 3Q10 3Q10
Total Cost of Ownership for Fleet Alternative Drivetrains Pike Pulse: Electric Vehicles Batteries Electric Vehicle Telematics Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey White Paper: Electric Vehicle Predictions for 2012 Vehicle to Grid Technologies Electric Vehicle Batteries Hybrid Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts Neighborhood Electric Vehicles Pike Pulse: Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts Electric Vehicle Cyber Security Electric Vehicles in Asia Pacific Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Hybrid Electric Vehicles for Fleet Markets
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
Electric Vehicles in China Plug-in Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment in Europe Electric Buses Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Vehicle to Building Technologies Pike Pulse: Plug-in Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts Pike Pulse: Electric Buses Pike Pulse: Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Vehicle to Grid Technologies Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2013 Electric Vehicles: Europe
5
PEV Model Availability
•
•
Available Now:
• Coming in 2013:
Chevrolet Volt
Audi A3 E-Tron
Fisker Karma
Audi r8 E-Tron
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
BMW i3
Nissan Leaf
Cadillac ELR
Tesla Roadster
Ford Fusion Energi
Think City
Ford C-Max Energi
Toyota Prius Plug-in
Mercedes A Class E-Cell
Coming in 2012:
•
Coming in 2014:
Coda Sedan
Tesla Model X
Daimler Smartfortwo Electric Drive
BMW i8
Ford Focus EV
Fisker Atlantic
Fiat 500 EV
Tesla Model S
Toyota Rav4
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
6
PEV Consumer Trends •
40% of respondents are “Extremely Interested” or “Very Interested” in a PEV or BEV with a range of 40 to 100 miles
•
Price sensitivity analysis indicates that the optimal price point of a PEV is $23,750
•
84% of respondents drive 40 miles or less per day
•
PEV interest has declined somewhat during 3 years of surveys (from a high of 48% in 2009)
•
Men with high incomes (over $100,000) and Caucasians are the most likely targets for PEV adoption
Consumer Interest in Plug-in Electric Vehicles Not at all interested 13%
Extremely interested 15%
Not very interested 13%
Very interested 25%
Somewhat interested / somewhat disinterested 34%
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
(n=1,051) (Source: Pike Research)
7
PEV Demand in Oregon •
Plug-PEV sales will grow from 1,640 to 11,241 annually between 2012 and 2017
•
35,060 PEVs will be sold in Oregon through 2017, including 43% BEVs
•
PHEVs: Small battery pack with electric range of up to 40 miles and gas engine to extend range
BEVs: All electric vehicles with range of 80 to 200 miles
Portland metro area will represent approximately 82% of all PEV sales Annual Sales of PEVs, Oregon: 2012-2017 12,000
PHEV
10,000
BEV 8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2012
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
(Source: Pike Research)
8
Key Contributing Factors to PEV Forecast •
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) include both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
•
There are a number of factors that are included in Pike Research’s forecast model that vary between national and state level forecasts depending on the data available:
National forecasts include: •
Government policies, including federal purchase incentives and anticipated fuel economy rules
•
Product rollout plans and availability
•
Ownership and interest in hybrid vehicles
•
Economic growth
•
Average gasoline costs
State forecasts include: •
State population and vehicle ownership
•
State demographics compared to hybrid owner demographics
•
State government policies, including incentives
•
Number of electric vehicle charging equipment (EVCE) units installed
•
Manufacturers’ PEV rollout plans and availability
•
Opinion of plug-in electric vehicles, including number and activity of advocacy groups
•
Statewide gasoline prices
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
9
Factors Impacting National PEV Demand •
Federal purchase incentives (between $2,500 and $7,500 per vehicle) are anticipated to remain in place throughout the forecast period
•
Increasing traditional internal combustion engine vehicle fuel economy has a negative impact on PEV sales due to decreasing cost of operation for higher fuel economy vehicles
•
Elimination or reduction of incentives would have a negative impact on demand at the national level
This is much more difficult to quantify and is more likely to have an impact in the latter years of the forecast
Battery pack costs are anticipated to fall 34% by 2017, but for several years this is not anticipated to impact the cost of BEVs as manufacturers increase the battery pack size
Manufacturers are expected to use cost decreases in 2012 to 2014 as a way to increase the range of vehicles while maintaining relatively steady pricing
After 2014, Pike Research anticipates lower battery costs will be reflected in pricing of the vehicles
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
10
Details Regarding Oregon’s PEV Forecast •
Oregon’s population of 3.8 million and new vehicle sales of 110,000 (for all vehicle classes) in 2011 were used as a baseline for calculating potential plug-in electric vehicle forecasts
•
The following assumptions are included in the forecast:
•
Pike Research created an “EV Positive Opinion Index” based on our consumer survey results. Oregon is ranked 6th with an index rating of 1.96 (a rating of 1.0 matches the national average).
In 2017 Oregon is anticipated to have the second highest percentage (5.4%) of PEV vehicles.
Oregon overall is ranked 7th for sales of PEVs
•
The combination of vehicle availability and strong advocacy from automotive manufacturers in the state will help maintain Oregon’s adoption lead over other states
Portland MSA has the highest correlation to HEV ownership of any region in the United States
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
11
Demand Drivers in Oregon •
Many of the same forces that drive demand at a national level are in play in Oregon, as well: Federal incentives of up to $7,500 per vehicle High cost of petroleum based fuels Economy and growth of automobile sales
•
PEV demand in Oregon: Concentration of EVCEs in Oregon enhances consumer demand for PEVs West Coast Electric Highway along I-5 enables lengthy EV driving •
However, while EVCE is an indicator, many communities may find public EVCE will go largely unused as commuters charge their vehicles in the evening and then drive to work, never using the public infrastructure
Short average daily driving (18.5 miles in Portland) is compatible with PEV driving range
•
Strong hybrid ownership indicative of interest in green vehicles and driving electric
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
12
Scenarios Impacting Demand • Key incentives that could positively impact Oregon demand include: Higher than expected average fuel costs could contribute to increased demand • Currently, Pike Research includes fuel cost estimates of the national average at $3.79/gallon gasoline in 2011 growing to $5.38/gallon gasoline in 2018 • In general, for gasoline prices to have impact on sales, Pike Research anticipates that fuel prices will need to be higher by about 10% or more • Assuming a 10% higher fuel cost (e.g. $4.17/gallon in 2012), Pike Research would expect between 2% and 4% increase in PEV sales • If gasoline prices fall by 10% (e.g. $3.41/gallon in 2012), Pike Research would expect PEV sales to fall at a rate of 5% or greater.
The availability of public EVCE is anticipated to have an impact on PEV sales • With an increase of 50% more EVCE in an area, Pike Research would anticipate up to 10% increase in demand in that ZIP code
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
13
Vehicles and Charging •
PHEVs and Range Extended Vehicles: Charging at between 3.3 kW and 7.2 kW using standard J1772 AC connector Charge frequently in public locations to “top off” and prevent running on gasoline power Full charging requires up to 2 hours depending on battery size Do not currently support faster DC charging
•
BEVs: Charging at between 3.3 kW and 7.2 kW using standard J1772 AC connector or at 50 kW or more using CHAdeMo or upcoming SAE combination connector Fast charging limited to commercial locations Full charging requires up to 8 hours using AC DC charging can provide 80% charge in 30 minutes or less
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
14
EVSE Demand in Oregon •
EVSE sales will grow from 1,935 to 14,164 annually between 2012 and 2017
•
Percentage of residential EVSEs sold will slowly shrink as more EV owners rely primarily on public charging
Fewer people charging at home increases the ratio of EVSE to PEV sales
Annual Sales of EVSE, Oregon: 2012-2017 16,000
Commercial 14,000
Residential
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 2012
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
(Source: Pike Research)
15
EVSE Utilization Trends • Residential charging will remain the primary location, but will decrease from 67% to 56% of charging events by 2017 • Commercial charging location breakdown:
Public: retail, municipal, parking garages and lots, transit locations
Workplace: employers
Private: hotels, multi-family housing, fleets
Location Percentage Splits for EV Charging Events, United States: 2017 Private , 16%
Public, 14%
Residential, 56%
Workplace, 14% (Source: Pike Research)
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
16
EV Charging Impact on Utilities •
Most U.S. consumers will purchase home EVSE if possible and residential will be the most frequent charging location
•
PEVs are expected to sell in clusters, with much higher penetration in affluent areas
•
Several PEVs charging at 7 kW simultaneously can impact transformers and other distribution equipment
•
Implementation of time-of-use and EV-specific rates will encourage off-peak charging and mitigate impact
•
DC Charging at 50 kW is “on demand” and is expected to frequently occur at peak times
•
EV charging networks and operators are looking to install stationary batteries to support DC charging to avoid demand charges and peak power consumption
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
17
EVSE Vendor Overview Pike Pulse Grid: EVSE Vendors
Others: ABB Efacec OpConnect PodPoint Schneider Electric SemaConnect Shorepower
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
(Source: Pike Research)
18
EVSE Future Developments •
Charging services companies like 350 Green, CarCharging Group, and EV Connect becoming major EVSE owners and operators
•
Network EVSE operators are eyeing ancillary services (AS) as revenue stream
•
Solutions for integrating EV charging with solar are developing
•
Profitable business models for operating public EVSEs remain challenging
•
EVSEs looking to integrate with home energy management systems
•
Stationary energy storage (Li-ion batteries) will play a role in home energy and AS
•
Wireless charging is in an experimental phase with several auto OEMs and the market is unlikely to materialize before 2015
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
19
Summary and Conclusions • Growth of PEV sales in Oregon will likely be strongest in areas where large state universities are present or large populations of higher income hybrid owners reside • The availability of public EVCE will generally lead the adoption of PEVs and can be used to help bolster growth • However, there’s more than just EVCEs: EVCEs best installation practices that are recognized around the country include: • Streamlining the permitting process of businesses and residents who want to install EVCE o This should include coordination by permitting body with utilities, vehicle dealers, and installation contractors (electricians) to provide purchasers with a simplified road map to installation
• Offering localized grant programs that can help provide funding to purchase and install EVCE
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
20
Summary and Conclusions After installation, providing awareness and access to maps for public EVCE networks will help build confidence in the PEV market The Rocky Mountain Institute’s “Project Get Ready” provides detailed and proven strategies for promoting PEV adoption • EV City Casebook from RMI, Clinton Climate Initiative, and IEA provides local recommendations
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
21
Contact Us HEADQUARTERS 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO 80302 John Gartner 303.493.0364 [email protected]
Sales Inquiries:
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
Carlton Bonilla 303-953-9765 [email protected]
22
John Gartner Research Director
Introduction Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy ecosystem. Sector Focus:
Research Services:
Smart Energy Smart Grid Smart Transportation Smart Industry Smart Buildings
Research Reports
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
Subscription Advisory Services Consulting & Custom Research • Go-To-Market Strategy • Custom Market Analysis • Market Sizing & Forecasts • Primary Research • Technology Evaluation • Commercial Due Diligence • Competitive Benchmarking • Strategic Advisory Sessions 2
Advisory Services SMART TRANSPORTATION
SMART GRID
SMART ENERGY Renewable Energy
Smart Meters
Electric Vehicles
Distributed Generation
Smart Energy Home
Alternative Fuel Vehicles
Fuel Cells
Smart Grid Infrastructure
Energy Storage
Microgrids
Advanced Batteries
Smart Grid Security
Utility Innovations
Smart Grid Communications
SMART INDUSTRY
SMART BUILDINGS
Energy Management
Building Systems
Green IT
Green Buildings
Industrial Innovations
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
3
Smart Transportation Practice
SMART TRANSPORTATION
Electric Vehicles
Alternative Fuel Vehicles
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
4
Electric Vehicles • • • •
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles • Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Battery Electric Vehicles • Consumer Attitudes, Hybrid Electric Vehicles Preferences, and Behavior Electric Vehicle Battery Technologies
Reports Published:
Future Reports (Subject to Change):
2Q12
2Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 3Q12 4Q12 4Q12 4Q12 4Q12 4Q12
1Q12 4Q11 4Q11 4Q11 4Q11 4Q11 3Q11 3Q11 3Q11 2Q11 2Q11 1Q11 1Q11 4Q10 3Q10 3Q10
Total Cost of Ownership for Fleet Alternative Drivetrains Pike Pulse: Electric Vehicles Batteries Electric Vehicle Telematics Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey White Paper: Electric Vehicle Predictions for 2012 Vehicle to Grid Technologies Electric Vehicle Batteries Hybrid Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts Neighborhood Electric Vehicles Pike Pulse: Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts Electric Vehicle Cyber Security Electric Vehicles in Asia Pacific Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems Hybrid Electric Vehicles for Fleet Markets
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
Electric Vehicles in China Plug-in Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment in Europe Electric Buses Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Vehicle to Building Technologies Pike Pulse: Plug-in Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts Pike Pulse: Electric Buses Pike Pulse: Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Vehicle to Grid Technologies Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2013 Electric Vehicles: Europe
5
PEV Model Availability
•
•
Available Now:
• Coming in 2013:
Chevrolet Volt
Audi A3 E-Tron
Fisker Karma
Audi r8 E-Tron
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
BMW i3
Nissan Leaf
Cadillac ELR
Tesla Roadster
Ford Fusion Energi
Think City
Ford C-Max Energi
Toyota Prius Plug-in
Mercedes A Class E-Cell
Coming in 2012:
•
Coming in 2014:
Coda Sedan
Tesla Model X
Daimler Smartfortwo Electric Drive
BMW i8
Ford Focus EV
Fisker Atlantic
Fiat 500 EV
Tesla Model S
Toyota Rav4
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
6
PEV Consumer Trends •
40% of respondents are “Extremely Interested” or “Very Interested” in a PEV or BEV with a range of 40 to 100 miles
•
Price sensitivity analysis indicates that the optimal price point of a PEV is $23,750
•
84% of respondents drive 40 miles or less per day
•
PEV interest has declined somewhat during 3 years of surveys (from a high of 48% in 2009)
•
Men with high incomes (over $100,000) and Caucasians are the most likely targets for PEV adoption
Consumer Interest in Plug-in Electric Vehicles Not at all interested 13%
Extremely interested 15%
Not very interested 13%
Very interested 25%
Somewhat interested / somewhat disinterested 34%
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
(n=1,051) (Source: Pike Research)
7
PEV Demand in Oregon •
Plug-PEV sales will grow from 1,640 to 11,241 annually between 2012 and 2017
•
35,060 PEVs will be sold in Oregon through 2017, including 43% BEVs
•
PHEVs: Small battery pack with electric range of up to 40 miles and gas engine to extend range
BEVs: All electric vehicles with range of 80 to 200 miles
Portland metro area will represent approximately 82% of all PEV sales Annual Sales of PEVs, Oregon: 2012-2017 12,000
PHEV
10,000
BEV 8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2012
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
(Source: Pike Research)
8
Key Contributing Factors to PEV Forecast •
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) include both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
•
There are a number of factors that are included in Pike Research’s forecast model that vary between national and state level forecasts depending on the data available:
National forecasts include: •
Government policies, including federal purchase incentives and anticipated fuel economy rules
•
Product rollout plans and availability
•
Ownership and interest in hybrid vehicles
•
Economic growth
•
Average gasoline costs
State forecasts include: •
State population and vehicle ownership
•
State demographics compared to hybrid owner demographics
•
State government policies, including incentives
•
Number of electric vehicle charging equipment (EVCE) units installed
•
Manufacturers’ PEV rollout plans and availability
•
Opinion of plug-in electric vehicles, including number and activity of advocacy groups
•
Statewide gasoline prices
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
9
Factors Impacting National PEV Demand •
Federal purchase incentives (between $2,500 and $7,500 per vehicle) are anticipated to remain in place throughout the forecast period
•
Increasing traditional internal combustion engine vehicle fuel economy has a negative impact on PEV sales due to decreasing cost of operation for higher fuel economy vehicles
•
Elimination or reduction of incentives would have a negative impact on demand at the national level
This is much more difficult to quantify and is more likely to have an impact in the latter years of the forecast
Battery pack costs are anticipated to fall 34% by 2017, but for several years this is not anticipated to impact the cost of BEVs as manufacturers increase the battery pack size
Manufacturers are expected to use cost decreases in 2012 to 2014 as a way to increase the range of vehicles while maintaining relatively steady pricing
After 2014, Pike Research anticipates lower battery costs will be reflected in pricing of the vehicles
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
10
Details Regarding Oregon’s PEV Forecast •
Oregon’s population of 3.8 million and new vehicle sales of 110,000 (for all vehicle classes) in 2011 were used as a baseline for calculating potential plug-in electric vehicle forecasts
•
The following assumptions are included in the forecast:
•
Pike Research created an “EV Positive Opinion Index” based on our consumer survey results. Oregon is ranked 6th with an index rating of 1.96 (a rating of 1.0 matches the national average).
In 2017 Oregon is anticipated to have the second highest percentage (5.4%) of PEV vehicles.
Oregon overall is ranked 7th for sales of PEVs
•
The combination of vehicle availability and strong advocacy from automotive manufacturers in the state will help maintain Oregon’s adoption lead over other states
Portland MSA has the highest correlation to HEV ownership of any region in the United States
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
11
Demand Drivers in Oregon •
Many of the same forces that drive demand at a national level are in play in Oregon, as well: Federal incentives of up to $7,500 per vehicle High cost of petroleum based fuels Economy and growth of automobile sales
•
PEV demand in Oregon: Concentration of EVCEs in Oregon enhances consumer demand for PEVs West Coast Electric Highway along I-5 enables lengthy EV driving •
However, while EVCE is an indicator, many communities may find public EVCE will go largely unused as commuters charge their vehicles in the evening and then drive to work, never using the public infrastructure
Short average daily driving (18.5 miles in Portland) is compatible with PEV driving range
•
Strong hybrid ownership indicative of interest in green vehicles and driving electric
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
12
Scenarios Impacting Demand • Key incentives that could positively impact Oregon demand include: Higher than expected average fuel costs could contribute to increased demand • Currently, Pike Research includes fuel cost estimates of the national average at $3.79/gallon gasoline in 2011 growing to $5.38/gallon gasoline in 2018 • In general, for gasoline prices to have impact on sales, Pike Research anticipates that fuel prices will need to be higher by about 10% or more • Assuming a 10% higher fuel cost (e.g. $4.17/gallon in 2012), Pike Research would expect between 2% and 4% increase in PEV sales • If gasoline prices fall by 10% (e.g. $3.41/gallon in 2012), Pike Research would expect PEV sales to fall at a rate of 5% or greater.
The availability of public EVCE is anticipated to have an impact on PEV sales • With an increase of 50% more EVCE in an area, Pike Research would anticipate up to 10% increase in demand in that ZIP code
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
13
Vehicles and Charging •
PHEVs and Range Extended Vehicles: Charging at between 3.3 kW and 7.2 kW using standard J1772 AC connector Charge frequently in public locations to “top off” and prevent running on gasoline power Full charging requires up to 2 hours depending on battery size Do not currently support faster DC charging
•
BEVs: Charging at between 3.3 kW and 7.2 kW using standard J1772 AC connector or at 50 kW or more using CHAdeMo or upcoming SAE combination connector Fast charging limited to commercial locations Full charging requires up to 8 hours using AC DC charging can provide 80% charge in 30 minutes or less
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
14
EVSE Demand in Oregon •
EVSE sales will grow from 1,935 to 14,164 annually between 2012 and 2017
•
Percentage of residential EVSEs sold will slowly shrink as more EV owners rely primarily on public charging
Fewer people charging at home increases the ratio of EVSE to PEV sales
Annual Sales of EVSE, Oregon: 2012-2017 16,000
Commercial 14,000
Residential
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 2012
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
(Source: Pike Research)
15
EVSE Utilization Trends • Residential charging will remain the primary location, but will decrease from 67% to 56% of charging events by 2017 • Commercial charging location breakdown:
Public: retail, municipal, parking garages and lots, transit locations
Workplace: employers
Private: hotels, multi-family housing, fleets
Location Percentage Splits for EV Charging Events, United States: 2017 Private , 16%
Public, 14%
Residential, 56%
Workplace, 14% (Source: Pike Research)
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
16
EV Charging Impact on Utilities •
Most U.S. consumers will purchase home EVSE if possible and residential will be the most frequent charging location
•
PEVs are expected to sell in clusters, with much higher penetration in affluent areas
•
Several PEVs charging at 7 kW simultaneously can impact transformers and other distribution equipment
•
Implementation of time-of-use and EV-specific rates will encourage off-peak charging and mitigate impact
•
DC Charging at 50 kW is “on demand” and is expected to frequently occur at peak times
•
EV charging networks and operators are looking to install stationary batteries to support DC charging to avoid demand charges and peak power consumption
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
17
EVSE Vendor Overview Pike Pulse Grid: EVSE Vendors
Others: ABB Efacec OpConnect PodPoint Schneider Electric SemaConnect Shorepower
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
(Source: Pike Research)
18
EVSE Future Developments •
Charging services companies like 350 Green, CarCharging Group, and EV Connect becoming major EVSE owners and operators
•
Network EVSE operators are eyeing ancillary services (AS) as revenue stream
•
Solutions for integrating EV charging with solar are developing
•
Profitable business models for operating public EVSEs remain challenging
•
EVSEs looking to integrate with home energy management systems
•
Stationary energy storage (Li-ion batteries) will play a role in home energy and AS
•
Wireless charging is in an experimental phase with several auto OEMs and the market is unlikely to materialize before 2015
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
19
Summary and Conclusions • Growth of PEV sales in Oregon will likely be strongest in areas where large state universities are present or large populations of higher income hybrid owners reside • The availability of public EVCE will generally lead the adoption of PEVs and can be used to help bolster growth • However, there’s more than just EVCEs: EVCEs best installation practices that are recognized around the country include: • Streamlining the permitting process of businesses and residents who want to install EVCE o This should include coordination by permitting body with utilities, vehicle dealers, and installation contractors (electricians) to provide purchasers with a simplified road map to installation
• Offering localized grant programs that can help provide funding to purchase and install EVCE
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
20
Summary and Conclusions After installation, providing awareness and access to maps for public EVCE networks will help build confidence in the PEV market The Rocky Mountain Institute’s “Project Get Ready” provides detailed and proven strategies for promoting PEV adoption • EV City Casebook from RMI, Clinton Climate Initiative, and IEA provides local recommendations
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
21
Contact Us HEADQUARTERS 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO 80302 John Gartner 303.493.0364 [email protected]
Sales Inquiries:
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
Carlton Bonilla 303-953-9765 [email protected]
22
