Energy and Development: Providing Access and Growth
NOVEMBER 2017
Energy and Development Providing Access and Growth
authors
Sarah Ladislaw Philippe Benoit
A Report of the
CSIS ENERGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM
Blank
• • • • •
Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe)
OECD
Non-OECD
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe)
Cumulative Demand Growth
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAAGR)
5000
2.50%
4000
2.00%
3000
1.50%
2000
1.00%
1000
0.50%
0
0.00%
-1000
OECD
Non-OECD
-0.50%
3500 3000
20 2500 15
2000 1500
10
1000 5 500 0
0 1990
1994
China Energy Intensity
1998
2002
World Energy Intensity
2006
2010
2014
China Primary Energy Consumption
Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe)
MJ/$2011 PPP GDP (Energy Intensity)
25
2015
2035
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
New Clean Energy Investment ($ Billion)
New Clean Energy Capacity Installation
$500
160GW
160 140
$400 120
88GW
$300
$349 $317 $291
$276 $200
100
$315 $287
$269
60
$205 $207 $175
$100
80
40
$128
20GW
20
$88 $62 $-
0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Chinese Investment in Clean Energy ($ Billion)
Fourth Quarter Running Average
40
33.9
35 30.1
30
27.6 24.5
25 20.4
19.1
17.6 17.9 20
16.1
15.3
15 11.3
10.2 5.2 0.6 0.6
1.8 1.5 2.1
3.1 3.0
6.5 7.1
10.2 10.6
8.3
9.1
10
8
3.8
5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17
200
Energy Investment USD Billion
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Oil and Gas Coal Power Generation Renewable Transport & Heat Electricity Networks Energy Efficiency
40,000
Investment $2015 Billion
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 New Policies Fossil Fuel
Renewables
Current Policies Electricity Networks
Other Low Carbon
450 Scenario Energy Efficiency
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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COVER PHOTO CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES OCTOBER 2017
1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202 887 0200 | www.csis.org
Energy and Development Providing Access and Growth
authors
Sarah Ladislaw Philippe Benoit
A Report of the
CSIS ENERGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM
Energy and Development Providing Access and Growth
authors
Sarah Ladislaw Philippe Benoit
A Report of the
CSIS ENERGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM
Blank
• • • • •
Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe)
OECD
Non-OECD
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe)
Cumulative Demand Growth
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAAGR)
5000
2.50%
4000
2.00%
3000
1.50%
2000
1.00%
1000
0.50%
0
0.00%
-1000
OECD
Non-OECD
-0.50%
3500 3000
20 2500 15
2000 1500
10
1000 5 500 0
0 1990
1994
China Energy Intensity
1998
2002
World Energy Intensity
2006
2010
2014
China Primary Energy Consumption
Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe)
MJ/$2011 PPP GDP (Energy Intensity)
25
2015
2035
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
New Clean Energy Investment ($ Billion)
New Clean Energy Capacity Installation
$500
160GW
160 140
$400 120
88GW
$300
$349 $317 $291
$276 $200
100
$315 $287
$269
60
$205 $207 $175
$100
80
40
$128
20GW
20
$88 $62 $-
0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Chinese Investment in Clean Energy ($ Billion)
Fourth Quarter Running Average
40
33.9
35 30.1
30
27.6 24.5
25 20.4
19.1
17.6 17.9 20
16.1
15.3
15 11.3
10.2 5.2 0.6 0.6
1.8 1.5 2.1
3.1 3.0
6.5 7.1
10.2 10.6
8.3
9.1
10
8
3.8
5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17
200
Energy Investment USD Billion
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Oil and Gas Coal Power Generation Renewable Transport & Heat Electricity Networks Energy Efficiency
40,000
Investment $2015 Billion
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 New Policies Fossil Fuel
Renewables
Current Policies Electricity Networks
Other Low Carbon
450 Scenario Energy Efficiency
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Blank
Blank
COVER PHOTO CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES OCTOBER 2017
1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202 887 0200 | www.csis.org
Energy and Development Providing Access and Growth
authors
Sarah Ladislaw Philippe Benoit
A Report of the
CSIS ENERGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM
