Energy Futures Forum
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Energy Futures Forum 9:00 AM – 3:30 PM Monday, May 16, 2016 CSIS 1st Floor Conference Room 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM
Welcome Breakfast and Project Overview
9:15 AM – 10:45 AM
Theme #1 – Prospects for Economic Reform in the Middle East
Speaker:
Presenters:
Sarah Ladislaw, Director and Senior Fellow CSIS Energy and National Security Program
Dr. Pritha Mitra, Senior Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund Bassam Fattouh, Director Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Dr. Anthony Cordesman, Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy CSIS
Moderator:
Roger Diwan, Vice President IHS Financial Services
Many oil and gas producing economies in the Middle East are pursuing economic reform to cope with the economic and fiscal stress resulting from the current oil price downturn. While it is too soon tell which reform efforts will succeed and which will fail, many are poised to alter the underlying social contract between governments and restive populations in the region. To undertake economic reform in the context of the uneasy political and security environment is both a promising and perilous endeavor. How countries in the region fare could have important impacts on regional and global energy supply and demand balances over the next ten years and beyond. This session will explore the trajectory of current reform efforts and what their success might mean for energy production and consumption in the region. We will also discuss how the region’s reform agenda will face significant head winds and might be vulnerable to disruption.
11:00 AM – 12:15 PM
Theme #2 – Integrating Distributed Energy Resources: the Role for Advanced Lighting Presenters:
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Dr. Sonja Glavaski, Program Director ARPA-E, U.S. Department of Energy Jonathan Dorsheimer, Senior Equity Analyst Canaccord Genuity
Moderator:
Michelle Melton, Associate Fellow Energy & National Security Program, CSIS
The growth of intermittent, distributed generation, along with changing usage patterns (e.g., lower demand growth, increased penetration of electric vehicles) is leading to greater uncertainty and variability in the electric grid—a problem that state and federal regulators are currently grappling with. Depending on how they are managed, distributed energy resources (DERs) offer great potential to increase reliability, reduce carbon emissions, and result in energy savings, lowering overall energy system costs. If poorly managed, however, the proliferation of these resources may have the opposite effect. Whether DERs will realize their potential in the long term will depend on whether the right control and integration technologies are deployed. This session will explore the need for control and integration technologies while focusing on one specific potential control technology, advanced lighting, that may help integrate DERs, shape load, and play a more active role in demand response. In this discussion we will explore the how advanced lighting technologies could serve as a load aggregator and accelerator for the evolution of a more advanced grid. Lunch will be served at 12:15 PM 12:30 PM – 1:45 PM
Theme #3 – The Competitive Landscape for Natural Gas Presenters:
Dr. Anthony Yuen, Global Energy Strategist Citi Research Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Research Fellow King Abdu`llah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
Moderator:
Bassam Fattouh, Director Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Natural gas is often heralded as the bridge fuel in the transition to a low carbon energy future. In recent years the build out in LNG export capacity in places like Australia along with the surge in U.S. natural gas development led
some analysts to proclaim a golden age of natural gas. Even under today’s more tempered view of the global gas, future natural gas still plays a significant role in the official government projections of future energy demand as well as the strategies of many of the world’s major oil and gas companies. Yet the competitive landscape for gas is somewhat murky – with cheap coal and government backed renewables potentially eating into gas’ future market share. This session will explore the competitive landscape for natural gas over the next decade by looking at the competition it faces on a sector by sector basis and also within the landscape of policy incentives that may increasingly influence the fuel mix in the coming decade. 2:00PM – 3:15 PM
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Theme #4 - The Future of Chinese Energy Investment Abroad Presenters:
Thilo Hanemann, Director and Economist Rhodium Group Erica Downs, Senior Analyst Eurasia Group
Moderator:
Scott Kennedy, Deputy Director China Program, CSIS
Energy sector investments made by Chinese state owned enterprise or by the Chinese government have played an interesting and important role in energy sector finance over the last couple of decades. As the energy investment landscape continues to shift and the Chinese continue to reform their economy, foreign policy, and state owned enterprises there is a good likelihood that Chinese energy sector investments outside China will evolve as well. This session will investigate how Chinese energy sector investments might change in terms of volume, direction, and investor, over the next decade and what impact those changes could have on particular countries and sectors. 3:15 PM – 3:30 PM
Wrap Up and Close
Energy Futures Forum 9:00 AM – 3:30 PM Monday, May 16, 2016 CSIS 1st Floor Conference Room 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM
Welcome Breakfast and Project Overview
9:15 AM – 10:45 AM
Theme #1 – Prospects for Economic Reform in the Middle East
Speaker:
Presenters:
Sarah Ladislaw, Director and Senior Fellow CSIS Energy and National Security Program
Dr. Pritha Mitra, Senior Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund Bassam Fattouh, Director Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Dr. Anthony Cordesman, Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy CSIS
Moderator:
Roger Diwan, Vice President IHS Financial Services
Many oil and gas producing economies in the Middle East are pursuing economic reform to cope with the economic and fiscal stress resulting from the current oil price downturn. While it is too soon tell which reform efforts will succeed and which will fail, many are poised to alter the underlying social contract between governments and restive populations in the region. To undertake economic reform in the context of the uneasy political and security environment is both a promising and perilous endeavor. How countries in the region fare could have important impacts on regional and global energy supply and demand balances over the next ten years and beyond. This session will explore the trajectory of current reform efforts and what their success might mean for energy production and consumption in the region. We will also discuss how the region’s reform agenda will face significant head winds and might be vulnerable to disruption.
11:00 AM – 12:15 PM
Theme #2 – Integrating Distributed Energy Resources: the Role for Advanced Lighting Presenters:
2
Dr. Sonja Glavaski, Program Director ARPA-E, U.S. Department of Energy Jonathan Dorsheimer, Senior Equity Analyst Canaccord Genuity
Moderator:
Michelle Melton, Associate Fellow Energy & National Security Program, CSIS
The growth of intermittent, distributed generation, along with changing usage patterns (e.g., lower demand growth, increased penetration of electric vehicles) is leading to greater uncertainty and variability in the electric grid—a problem that state and federal regulators are currently grappling with. Depending on how they are managed, distributed energy resources (DERs) offer great potential to increase reliability, reduce carbon emissions, and result in energy savings, lowering overall energy system costs. If poorly managed, however, the proliferation of these resources may have the opposite effect. Whether DERs will realize their potential in the long term will depend on whether the right control and integration technologies are deployed. This session will explore the need for control and integration technologies while focusing on one specific potential control technology, advanced lighting, that may help integrate DERs, shape load, and play a more active role in demand response. In this discussion we will explore the how advanced lighting technologies could serve as a load aggregator and accelerator for the evolution of a more advanced grid. Lunch will be served at 12:15 PM 12:30 PM – 1:45 PM
Theme #3 – The Competitive Landscape for Natural Gas Presenters:
Dr. Anthony Yuen, Global Energy Strategist Citi Research Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Research Fellow King Abdu`llah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
Moderator:
Bassam Fattouh, Director Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Natural gas is often heralded as the bridge fuel in the transition to a low carbon energy future. In recent years the build out in LNG export capacity in places like Australia along with the surge in U.S. natural gas development led
some analysts to proclaim a golden age of natural gas. Even under today’s more tempered view of the global gas, future natural gas still plays a significant role in the official government projections of future energy demand as well as the strategies of many of the world’s major oil and gas companies. Yet the competitive landscape for gas is somewhat murky – with cheap coal and government backed renewables potentially eating into gas’ future market share. This session will explore the competitive landscape for natural gas over the next decade by looking at the competition it faces on a sector by sector basis and also within the landscape of policy incentives that may increasingly influence the fuel mix in the coming decade. 2:00PM – 3:15 PM
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Theme #4 - The Future of Chinese Energy Investment Abroad Presenters:
Thilo Hanemann, Director and Economist Rhodium Group Erica Downs, Senior Analyst Eurasia Group
Moderator:
Scott Kennedy, Deputy Director China Program, CSIS
Energy sector investments made by Chinese state owned enterprise or by the Chinese government have played an interesting and important role in energy sector finance over the last couple of decades. As the energy investment landscape continues to shift and the Chinese continue to reform their economy, foreign policy, and state owned enterprises there is a good likelihood that Chinese energy sector investments outside China will evolve as well. This session will investigate how Chinese energy sector investments might change in terms of volume, direction, and investor, over the next decade and what impact those changes could have on particular countries and sectors. 3:15 PM – 3:30 PM
Wrap Up and Close
