Energy Issues and My Water Heater
But first some nifty energy terms to know..
Lecture 7: Global and US Energy Production and Consumption, or “lo’ whither My Lonely Water Heater” Geography 1000 Spring 2009 January 28
Lecture Goals—tooo many graphs here but we can stop and discuss what you would like!!! • 1) Alaska National Wildlife Reserve—where what and why • 2) Energy’s high correlation with prosperity • 3) Estimating changing global energy demand and the new and growing role of China and India. • 4) US Energy balance and consumption • 5) Fossil Fuel Assessments in 2008 oil, natural gas, coal
Conversions Quad =
• • • • • • • •
Problems in ANWR pp. 305-306 Energy Sources – Figure 12-4 pp. 307 Turbo generators and use pp. 309-310 How fossil fuels form pp. 313 US Dependency on oil imports pp. 319 Oil shale and sands pp. 323 CHP systems pp. 326 For USA, what % of global oil reserves and consumption (p. 303). • August 14 Brownout in USA/Canada p.310
Definitions BTU = The quantity of heat, which is a form of energy, necessary to raise the temperature of a pound of water from 39 to 40 degrees F. A Quadrillion is 1,000,000,000,000,000 A Quad = 1015 BTUs A typical residential furnace is rated at 100,000 BTU/hour
North Slope Alaska
170 million barrels of petroleum 41 million tons of Eastern bituminous coal 57 million tons of Western sub-bituminous coal 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas 100 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity
NPRA = National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska ANWR = Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
1
Energy is still essential to PROSPERITY!: Relationship between energy consumption and Human Development Index
ANWR Reserves Oil in Quads Part of Study Area ANWR 1002 Area Recoverable Oil in Place Entire Coastal Recoverable Oil in Place
95% Probability
Mean
5% Probability
25.0 68.2
45.1 121.8
69.4 185.3
33.7 91.8
60.7 163.5
93.9 248.8
2003 U.S. Crude Oil Consumption was 43.1 Quads
Primary energy consumption per capita
Source: World Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions, EIA (2004)
Energy Demand & Prosperity
2006
Energy demand over time
Source: Drivers of the Energy Scene, World Energy Council (2003)
Is Sustainable Development an Oxymoron?
• 800 Billion barrels of oil (42 gal) have already been used since 1897. • 24.5 billion barrels a year are used now worldwide--growing @ 2.0 %/year • the world could use 40 billion bbls/year in 2020. Clearly, when we discuss development for these nations, we don’t mean they can all have my water heater….
2
World primary energy consumption
Regional primary energy consumption 2005
Well, lets look at the good ol’ USA!
Some U.S. Energy Factoids IN 2008 • Natural Gas 25.6% of energy consumed. • Coal 22.9 % of energy consumed. • OIL -mmmmmm m—37.4% yeh man tasty…
• SO Fossil FUELS account for 85.9 % (p. 312) AND 50% is imported • Renewable Energy 6-7 % (hydropower 2.7%) • Nuclear 8.3%
http://strathkirn.com/Presentations/ACSpresSTL07.pdf
3
United States Energy Consumption 2004 In Quadrillion BTUs (Quads) Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil NGPL Nuclear Power Hydro Waste Geothermal
22.5 19.3 11.5 2.5 8.2 2.7 2.8 0.3
Solar Wind Subtotal Crude Oil Imp. Adjustments Subtotal Exports Total
0.1 0.1 70.2 32.9 0.8 103.9 -4.4 99.5
http://strathkirn.com/Presentations/ACSpresSTL07.pdf
United States Energy Consumption 2004 In Industry Units Fuel Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil NGPL Pet. Imports
Quads/Year 22.5 Quads 19.3 Quads 11.5 Quads 2.5 Quads 32.9 Quads
Pet. Imports Total Petroleum
Yearly 1088.1 Million tons 19.6 Trillion cu ft 1,955,000,000 Barrels 419,560,000 Barrels 5,593,000,000 Barrels
Total Energy Flow, 2004 (Quadrillion Btu)
Daily 2.95 Million tons 53.69 Billion cu ft 5,356,164 Barrels 1,149,479 Barrels 15,323,288 Barrels
15,323,288 bbl/day = 643,578,096 gal/day 21,828,931 bbl/day = 916,323,102 gal/day
Electricity Flow, 2004 (Quadrillion Btu)
65% lost in conversion
Sure-a-roo This 65% is on the test!!
Electricity Generation in the US • Nuclear-1999 -107 nuclear plants in the US generate 20% of our electricity Last built was 1996 (Watts Bar, TN)--none under construction. (17% world power) • Natural Gas accounts for 9 % • Coal 57 % (we have a 400 year supply if we figure out how to burn it more efficiently and cleanly) • Oil --2% (just too expensive!!) • Hydropower 11% (300 dams in NW and SE) • Other (wood, renewables, garbage) 0.7%
4
Natural Gas Flow, 2004
Petroleum Flow, 2004
(Trillion Cubic Feet)
(Million Barrels per Day)
66% for transportation
Coal Flow, 2004 (Million Short Tons)
Global Oil Consumption and Production
Crude oil prices since 1861
5
Proved oil reserves at end 2005
Oil production by area 2006
Oil consumption per capita
Distribution of proven oil reserves 1985, 1995, 2005
Oil consumption by area 2006
Major oil trade movements
2006
6
Greg, what about Natural Gas?
Proved natural gas reserves at end 2005
Distribution of proved (natural gas) reserves 1985, 1995, 2005
Natural gas production by area
Natural gas consumption by area
7
Natural gas consumption per capita
Major natural gas trade movements
Oddly, coal consumption is GROWING too!
And what does this mean to Uncle Greg’s Ford Taurus Wagon with 110K miles???
8
Proved coal reserves at end 2005
Rising energy demand, especially for oil, means there will be major challenges for, and conflicts between,
Coal production - Coal consumption
―Marjorie, your glass gazebo is very cool and classy, but it can be very stuffy, lets heat it up and then open the windows to cool off!!‖
•Economic growth, esp. in developing world (ie accessibility) •Geopolitical stability •Environmental Ideology – coal and nuclear are here to stay •Climate policy - attempts to stabilize emissions will cost $$$
You cannot separate energy prices, global politics, and consumption—cannot be done— you know more of that circle of life stuff…..
9
―I’ll put the patio heaters on, Angela. We can sit outside instead!—only in America can we be warm like inside, but be ―like‖ outside!‖
Do what we SAY, not what we do!!! Advice to China
China & oil China only demands 8% of world oil but was responsible for 40% inc. in global consumption since 2000 – China’s consumption inc. 15% last year alone. In 2003, China consumed 40% of all the coal and 30% of all the world’s steel, and is the leading consumer of copper and cement.
Why Kick China??
Effects: •Prices will become volatile - a slowdown in China’s economic growth is predicted but if too much then investment in raw materials drops demand and price will fall •Basic industries are highly energy intensive but not necessarily for oil (ie coal). •As individual incomes rise (=cars, appliances) oil demand rises sharply Japan and S Korea’s oil demand rose from 5–15 barrels oil per head in 10 years If China follows this pattern its energy demand will quadruple. This increase alone will be greater than US total demand today, plus if car ownership keeps on current track by 2020 China will have 650m cars - more than in world today! Much scope for greater energy efficiency so predict doubling of demand by 2020. As of 2000-2001, China's economy was eight times more energy intensive than Japan and three times more energy intensive than the US.
China & emissions China's now accounts for 13 percent of the global emissions total, compared with 26 percent for the United States.
Reliable Energy Supplies: Barriers to Bridging the Welfare Gap
China's share of emissions is expected to exceed the United States, by around 2020, with China contributing 30% of global emissions by 2025. China, along with India and other developing countries, argue that the developed countries should take the lead as they generate more greenhouse gas per capita. China's per capita emission rate is much lower than the United States & Europe but will catch up as its GDP per capita increases. The developing nations have so far resisted calls for restrictions on their emissions on the grounds that they would hamper growth. Gao Guangsheng, deputy director-general of the National Development and Reform Commission: ―The priority is to satisfy our basic demand. The economy must develop. China has 1.3 billion people and we have to live." The scope for reducing China’s carbon intensity is huge. China still relies on coal for about 75 per cent of its energy and renewable sources account for
Lecture 7: Global and US Energy Production and Consumption, or “lo’ whither My Lonely Water Heater” Geography 1000 Spring 2009 January 28
Lecture Goals—tooo many graphs here but we can stop and discuss what you would like!!! • 1) Alaska National Wildlife Reserve—where what and why • 2) Energy’s high correlation with prosperity • 3) Estimating changing global energy demand and the new and growing role of China and India. • 4) US Energy balance and consumption • 5) Fossil Fuel Assessments in 2008 oil, natural gas, coal
Conversions Quad =
• • • • • • • •
Problems in ANWR pp. 305-306 Energy Sources – Figure 12-4 pp. 307 Turbo generators and use pp. 309-310 How fossil fuels form pp. 313 US Dependency on oil imports pp. 319 Oil shale and sands pp. 323 CHP systems pp. 326 For USA, what % of global oil reserves and consumption (p. 303). • August 14 Brownout in USA/Canada p.310
Definitions BTU = The quantity of heat, which is a form of energy, necessary to raise the temperature of a pound of water from 39 to 40 degrees F. A Quadrillion is 1,000,000,000,000,000 A Quad = 1015 BTUs A typical residential furnace is rated at 100,000 BTU/hour
North Slope Alaska
170 million barrels of petroleum 41 million tons of Eastern bituminous coal 57 million tons of Western sub-bituminous coal 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas 100 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity
NPRA = National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska ANWR = Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
1
Energy is still essential to PROSPERITY!: Relationship between energy consumption and Human Development Index
ANWR Reserves Oil in Quads Part of Study Area ANWR 1002 Area Recoverable Oil in Place Entire Coastal Recoverable Oil in Place
95% Probability
Mean
5% Probability
25.0 68.2
45.1 121.8
69.4 185.3
33.7 91.8
60.7 163.5
93.9 248.8
2003 U.S. Crude Oil Consumption was 43.1 Quads
Primary energy consumption per capita
Source: World Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions, EIA (2004)
Energy Demand & Prosperity
2006
Energy demand over time
Source: Drivers of the Energy Scene, World Energy Council (2003)
Is Sustainable Development an Oxymoron?
• 800 Billion barrels of oil (42 gal) have already been used since 1897. • 24.5 billion barrels a year are used now worldwide--growing @ 2.0 %/year • the world could use 40 billion bbls/year in 2020. Clearly, when we discuss development for these nations, we don’t mean they can all have my water heater….
2
World primary energy consumption
Regional primary energy consumption 2005
Well, lets look at the good ol’ USA!
Some U.S. Energy Factoids IN 2008 • Natural Gas 25.6% of energy consumed. • Coal 22.9 % of energy consumed. • OIL -mmmmmm m—37.4% yeh man tasty…
• SO Fossil FUELS account for 85.9 % (p. 312) AND 50% is imported • Renewable Energy 6-7 % (hydropower 2.7%) • Nuclear 8.3%
http://strathkirn.com/Presentations/ACSpresSTL07.pdf
3
United States Energy Consumption 2004 In Quadrillion BTUs (Quads) Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil NGPL Nuclear Power Hydro Waste Geothermal
22.5 19.3 11.5 2.5 8.2 2.7 2.8 0.3
Solar Wind Subtotal Crude Oil Imp. Adjustments Subtotal Exports Total
0.1 0.1 70.2 32.9 0.8 103.9 -4.4 99.5
http://strathkirn.com/Presentations/ACSpresSTL07.pdf
United States Energy Consumption 2004 In Industry Units Fuel Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil NGPL Pet. Imports
Quads/Year 22.5 Quads 19.3 Quads 11.5 Quads 2.5 Quads 32.9 Quads
Pet. Imports Total Petroleum
Yearly 1088.1 Million tons 19.6 Trillion cu ft 1,955,000,000 Barrels 419,560,000 Barrels 5,593,000,000 Barrels
Total Energy Flow, 2004 (Quadrillion Btu)
Daily 2.95 Million tons 53.69 Billion cu ft 5,356,164 Barrels 1,149,479 Barrels 15,323,288 Barrels
15,323,288 bbl/day = 643,578,096 gal/day 21,828,931 bbl/day = 916,323,102 gal/day
Electricity Flow, 2004 (Quadrillion Btu)
65% lost in conversion
Sure-a-roo This 65% is on the test!!
Electricity Generation in the US • Nuclear-1999 -107 nuclear plants in the US generate 20% of our electricity Last built was 1996 (Watts Bar, TN)--none under construction. (17% world power) • Natural Gas accounts for 9 % • Coal 57 % (we have a 400 year supply if we figure out how to burn it more efficiently and cleanly) • Oil --2% (just too expensive!!) • Hydropower 11% (300 dams in NW and SE) • Other (wood, renewables, garbage) 0.7%
4
Natural Gas Flow, 2004
Petroleum Flow, 2004
(Trillion Cubic Feet)
(Million Barrels per Day)
66% for transportation
Coal Flow, 2004 (Million Short Tons)
Global Oil Consumption and Production
Crude oil prices since 1861
5
Proved oil reserves at end 2005
Oil production by area 2006
Oil consumption per capita
Distribution of proven oil reserves 1985, 1995, 2005
Oil consumption by area 2006
Major oil trade movements
2006
6
Greg, what about Natural Gas?
Proved natural gas reserves at end 2005
Distribution of proved (natural gas) reserves 1985, 1995, 2005
Natural gas production by area
Natural gas consumption by area
7
Natural gas consumption per capita
Major natural gas trade movements
Oddly, coal consumption is GROWING too!
And what does this mean to Uncle Greg’s Ford Taurus Wagon with 110K miles???
8
Proved coal reserves at end 2005
Rising energy demand, especially for oil, means there will be major challenges for, and conflicts between,
Coal production - Coal consumption
―Marjorie, your glass gazebo is very cool and classy, but it can be very stuffy, lets heat it up and then open the windows to cool off!!‖
•Economic growth, esp. in developing world (ie accessibility) •Geopolitical stability •Environmental Ideology – coal and nuclear are here to stay •Climate policy - attempts to stabilize emissions will cost $$$
You cannot separate energy prices, global politics, and consumption—cannot be done— you know more of that circle of life stuff…..
9
―I’ll put the patio heaters on, Angela. We can sit outside instead!—only in America can we be warm like inside, but be ―like‖ outside!‖
Do what we SAY, not what we do!!! Advice to China
China & oil China only demands 8% of world oil but was responsible for 40% inc. in global consumption since 2000 – China’s consumption inc. 15% last year alone. In 2003, China consumed 40% of all the coal and 30% of all the world’s steel, and is the leading consumer of copper and cement.
Why Kick China??
Effects: •Prices will become volatile - a slowdown in China’s economic growth is predicted but if too much then investment in raw materials drops demand and price will fall •Basic industries are highly energy intensive but not necessarily for oil (ie coal). •As individual incomes rise (=cars, appliances) oil demand rises sharply Japan and S Korea’s oil demand rose from 5–15 barrels oil per head in 10 years If China follows this pattern its energy demand will quadruple. This increase alone will be greater than US total demand today, plus if car ownership keeps on current track by 2020 China will have 650m cars - more than in world today! Much scope for greater energy efficiency so predict doubling of demand by 2020. As of 2000-2001, China's economy was eight times more energy intensive than Japan and three times more energy intensive than the US.
China & emissions China's now accounts for 13 percent of the global emissions total, compared with 26 percent for the United States.
Reliable Energy Supplies: Barriers to Bridging the Welfare Gap
China's share of emissions is expected to exceed the United States, by around 2020, with China contributing 30% of global emissions by 2025. China, along with India and other developing countries, argue that the developed countries should take the lead as they generate more greenhouse gas per capita. China's per capita emission rate is much lower than the United States & Europe but will catch up as its GDP per capita increases. The developing nations have so far resisted calls for restrictions on their emissions on the grounds that they would hamper growth. Gao Guangsheng, deputy director-general of the National Development and Reform Commission: ―The priority is to satisfy our basic demand. The economy must develop. China has 1.3 billion people and we have to live." The scope for reducing China’s carbon intensity is huge. China still relies on coal for about 75 per cent of its energy and renewable sources account for
