Energy Market Update April 25, 2018
,Inc.
Energy Market Update April 25, 2018 NYMEX Prices Close May Crude Oil Crude Oil May Gasoline May Heating Oil May Natural Gas
$68.05 60 $2.0897 $2.1360 $2.786
Wk. Change -0.49 +0.0196 +0.0411 +0.051
Market Comments: U.S. crude moved higher today after shrugging off data showing a rise in domestic crude inventories and production. U.S. production output has already increased by more than a quarter since mid-2016, moving the U.S. past Saudi Arabia’s output of around 10 million bpd. Crude Change DOE EST. Propane
API’s
+2.2
3Yr Avg. 429.7 475 +2.451/-3.000 Total
Gasoline
5 Yr. Avg. 469
Change
+0.8
3Yr Avg. 225 236.8 +1.000/-3.875 Total
Distillate Fuel
5 Yr. Avg. 227
Change
-2.6
3Yr Avg. 122.7 133 +1.000/-3.875 Total
Total -0.2 35.7
Midwest -0.1 8.9
Gulf N/C -0.6 22.5
Crude +1.099 Cushing -0.930
Gasoline -2.724
Distillates -1.911
5 Yr. Avg. 134
The 2018 break-even for the Bakken, ND looks higher with the average at $38 compared to its cost of $30 in 2016. Permian Delaware, about $32 in 2016, averages $30 now. Permian Midland, about $39 in 2016, averages $25 in 2018. The Bakken in 2018 carries the highest wellhead costs of all wells specifically named. Unnamed shale wells carry an average cost of $32 in 2018, whereas average non-shale wells carry an average cost of $40 in 2018. The spring demand for gasoline has been aggressive, which has resulted in supplies of U.S. gasoline to be drawn down. A significant portion of the supply has been going to the export market. As a result of the strong demand and declining stocks we are seeing the price of gasoline higher then we have seen the previous three years. The national gas price average is two cents
The average U.S. price for regular gasoline has increased over the past couple of weeks to around $2.76 per gallon, marking the highest it’s been since the summer of 2015. The jump in price is primarily driven by the rise in crude costs, according to industry analyst Trilby Lundberg. California has the highest average price at $3.56 per gallon, while Missouri has the lowest state average price of $2.44 per gallon. Crude production is moving slowly higher with shale production continuing to make technical improvements and better break-even margins. I found this old chart (the falling cost of U.S. shale production) when I was looking for something else. The chart below shows break-even costs on oil at the wellhead from 2013-2016. According to the USDA U.S. corn planting is at 5 percent complete vs. the five year average of 14 percent. Soybeans planting stands at 2 percent, which is in line with the five year average. The winter wheat crop continues to struggle as only 31 percent of the crop is in good to excellent condition vs. the five year average of 54 percent. The spring demand for gasoline has been aggressive, which has resulted in supplies of U.S. gasoline to be drawn down. A significant portion of the supply has been going to the export market. As a result of the strong demand and declining stocks we are seeing the price of gasoline higher then we have seen the previous three years. The national gas price average is two cents
Energy Market Update April 25, 2018 NYMEX Prices Close May Crude Oil Crude Oil May Gasoline May Heating Oil May Natural Gas
$68.05 60 $2.0897 $2.1360 $2.786
Wk. Change -0.49 +0.0196 +0.0411 +0.051
Market Comments: U.S. crude moved higher today after shrugging off data showing a rise in domestic crude inventories and production. U.S. production output has already increased by more than a quarter since mid-2016, moving the U.S. past Saudi Arabia’s output of around 10 million bpd. Crude Change DOE EST. Propane
API’s
+2.2
3Yr Avg. 429.7 475 +2.451/-3.000 Total
Gasoline
5 Yr. Avg. 469
Change
+0.8
3Yr Avg. 225 236.8 +1.000/-3.875 Total
Distillate Fuel
5 Yr. Avg. 227
Change
-2.6
3Yr Avg. 122.7 133 +1.000/-3.875 Total
Total -0.2 35.7
Midwest -0.1 8.9
Gulf N/C -0.6 22.5
Crude +1.099 Cushing -0.930
Gasoline -2.724
Distillates -1.911
5 Yr. Avg. 134
The 2018 break-even for the Bakken, ND looks higher with the average at $38 compared to its cost of $30 in 2016. Permian Delaware, about $32 in 2016, averages $30 now. Permian Midland, about $39 in 2016, averages $25 in 2018. The Bakken in 2018 carries the highest wellhead costs of all wells specifically named. Unnamed shale wells carry an average cost of $32 in 2018, whereas average non-shale wells carry an average cost of $40 in 2018. The spring demand for gasoline has been aggressive, which has resulted in supplies of U.S. gasoline to be drawn down. A significant portion of the supply has been going to the export market. As a result of the strong demand and declining stocks we are seeing the price of gasoline higher then we have seen the previous three years. The national gas price average is two cents
The average U.S. price for regular gasoline has increased over the past couple of weeks to around $2.76 per gallon, marking the highest it’s been since the summer of 2015. The jump in price is primarily driven by the rise in crude costs, according to industry analyst Trilby Lundberg. California has the highest average price at $3.56 per gallon, while Missouri has the lowest state average price of $2.44 per gallon. Crude production is moving slowly higher with shale production continuing to make technical improvements and better break-even margins. I found this old chart (the falling cost of U.S. shale production) when I was looking for something else. The chart below shows break-even costs on oil at the wellhead from 2013-2016. According to the USDA U.S. corn planting is at 5 percent complete vs. the five year average of 14 percent. Soybeans planting stands at 2 percent, which is in line with the five year average. The winter wheat crop continues to struggle as only 31 percent of the crop is in good to excellent condition vs. the five year average of 54 percent. The spring demand for gasoline has been aggressive, which has resulted in supplies of U.S. gasoline to be drawn down. A significant portion of the supply has been going to the export market. As a result of the strong demand and declining stocks we are seeing the price of gasoline higher then we have seen the previous three years. The national gas price average is two cents
