Energy Market Update October 11, 2017
Inc.
Energy Market Update October 11, 2017 NYMEX Prices Close November Crude Oil CrudeNovember Oil Gasoline November Heating Oil November Natural Gas
$51.30 $1.6092 $1.7861 $2.886
Wk. Change +$1.32 +$0.0287 +$0.0122 -$0.053
MARKET COMMENTS: Inventory report delayed until Thursday. So far a quiet week, with a government/school holiday on Monday, OPEC talking the market higher on Tuesday, and a vacillating market today that ended higher. The Federal Reserve officials would like to raise interest rates again this year, but expressed concern over low inflation. They will hold two more meetings this calendar year. A Federal judge will allow the Dakota Access oil pipeline to operate while an environmental impact study is completed (by late spring).
Distillate stocks have fallen down to the five-year average line, erasing the surplus that has existed for more than two years.
The 8 to 14 day weather forecast, which is valid through October 22nd, does not look very promising for strong propane demand. It appears are if the vast majority of the United States is going to be experiencing above to well above normal temperatures for this time of year. As for precipitation, the Midwest is forecasted to receive above normal rainfall, while other areas are normal to dry. The Trump administration on Tuesday formally withdrew federal limits on carbon emissions at power plants, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt said, triggering the next stage of what is likely a yearlong fight over the Obama administration’s centerpiece for slowing climate change. The change would end a moratorium on the sale of coal leases on federal land. Pruitt filed the repeal on the grounds that the Obama regulation exceeded the agency’s “statutory authority.” The public will have 60 days to comment.
The number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased by 2 last week. Oil rigs in the United States now number 748—320 rigs above this time last year. Even though rig counts have been on the decline, U.S. crude production continues to climb, with production at 9.56 million barrels per day. Aside from the hiccups caused by Hurricane Harvey, US crude production climbed out of the hole quickly. State
% corn harvested
5 yr. avg.
State
Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Michigan Missouri Nebraska Ohio Wisconsin Total 18 states
59 36 18 60 10 68 22 22 12 33
52 34 28 61 13 65 29 21 16 37
Arkansas Illinois Indiana Iowa Michigan Minnesota Nebraska N. Dakota Ohio Total 18 states
% soybeans harvested 57 36 30 40 13 61 42 70 28 41
5 yr. avg.
State
49 41 35 45 29 63 46 64 35 43
Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Michigan Nebraska N. Dakota Ohio Wisconsin Total 48 states
Topsoil Moisture Adequate 39 55 59 71 37 68 63 58 74 56
The average U.S. household expenditure on gasoline in 2017 is expected to total $1,977, or approximately 2.4% of mean incomes of households, according to projections by the EIA. The most recent peak for household gasoline expenditures was $2,715, or 4.0% of household income, in 2008. Declines in gasoline prices since 2012, however, have led to increases in vehicle travel and increases in gasoline consumption. Based on EIA’s latest projections, continued low gasoline prices are expected to lead to record-high gasoline consumption of 9.3 million barrels per day for 2017.
Energy Market Update October 11, 2017 NYMEX Prices Close November Crude Oil CrudeNovember Oil Gasoline November Heating Oil November Natural Gas
$51.30 $1.6092 $1.7861 $2.886
Wk. Change +$1.32 +$0.0287 +$0.0122 -$0.053
MARKET COMMENTS: Inventory report delayed until Thursday. So far a quiet week, with a government/school holiday on Monday, OPEC talking the market higher on Tuesday, and a vacillating market today that ended higher. The Federal Reserve officials would like to raise interest rates again this year, but expressed concern over low inflation. They will hold two more meetings this calendar year. A Federal judge will allow the Dakota Access oil pipeline to operate while an environmental impact study is completed (by late spring).
Distillate stocks have fallen down to the five-year average line, erasing the surplus that has existed for more than two years.
The 8 to 14 day weather forecast, which is valid through October 22nd, does not look very promising for strong propane demand. It appears are if the vast majority of the United States is going to be experiencing above to well above normal temperatures for this time of year. As for precipitation, the Midwest is forecasted to receive above normal rainfall, while other areas are normal to dry. The Trump administration on Tuesday formally withdrew federal limits on carbon emissions at power plants, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt said, triggering the next stage of what is likely a yearlong fight over the Obama administration’s centerpiece for slowing climate change. The change would end a moratorium on the sale of coal leases on federal land. Pruitt filed the repeal on the grounds that the Obama regulation exceeded the agency’s “statutory authority.” The public will have 60 days to comment.
The number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased by 2 last week. Oil rigs in the United States now number 748—320 rigs above this time last year. Even though rig counts have been on the decline, U.S. crude production continues to climb, with production at 9.56 million barrels per day. Aside from the hiccups caused by Hurricane Harvey, US crude production climbed out of the hole quickly. State
% corn harvested
5 yr. avg.
State
Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Michigan Missouri Nebraska Ohio Wisconsin Total 18 states
59 36 18 60 10 68 22 22 12 33
52 34 28 61 13 65 29 21 16 37
Arkansas Illinois Indiana Iowa Michigan Minnesota Nebraska N. Dakota Ohio Total 18 states
% soybeans harvested 57 36 30 40 13 61 42 70 28 41
5 yr. avg.
State
49 41 35 45 29 63 46 64 35 43
Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Michigan Nebraska N. Dakota Ohio Wisconsin Total 48 states
Topsoil Moisture Adequate 39 55 59 71 37 68 63 58 74 56
The average U.S. household expenditure on gasoline in 2017 is expected to total $1,977, or approximately 2.4% of mean incomes of households, according to projections by the EIA. The most recent peak for household gasoline expenditures was $2,715, or 4.0% of household income, in 2008. Declines in gasoline prices since 2012, however, have led to increases in vehicle travel and increases in gasoline consumption. Based on EIA’s latest projections, continued low gasoline prices are expected to lead to record-high gasoline consumption of 9.3 million barrels per day for 2017.
