APRIL 12, 2010
ETF Spotlight A samping of research & data on exchange traded funds from AltaVista Research
Published by
In this week's issue: Chart of the week: Funds with the highest dividend yields Fund Focus: Claymore/S&P Global Dividend (LVL) page 2
Ph: +1.646.435.0569
Revisions, assets flows & short interest...page 3
[email protected] DPS estimates, growth rates, and yields on major ETFs...page 4 Market monitor: big movers & by category...page 5
Coverage at a glance: Chart of the week: ETFs with the highest dividend yields* (on 2010E DPS) 14% 12%
527
12.1%
10%
No. of ETFs:
8.5%
8%
8.3%
7.1%
6.9%
6%
6.4%
6.0%
5.9%
5.7%
5.6%
4%
Total Market Cap (bns):
$609.4
2% 0% REM
IYZ
PSL
LVL
DGS
EWX
FDD
DWX
IXP
EZA
*Before ETF expenses and fess.
Table: Ticker, fund name & ALTAR Score™ of above chart. ALTAR Ticker
Name
REM
iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage
IYZ
iShares Dow Jones Telecom Index
PSL
PowerShares Dynamic Consumer Staples
5.2%
LVL
Claymore/S&P Global Dividend
9.7%
DGS
WisdomTree Emg. Mkts. Small Cap Dividend
12.3%
EWX
SPDR S&P Emerging Small Cap
10.7%
FDD
First Trust DJ Stoxx Europe
10.9%
DWX
SPDR S&P Interational Dividend
10.1%
IXP
iShares S&P Global Telecomm
EZA
iShares MSCI South Africa
Note: Please visit www.etfresearchcenter.com for more information on the ALTAR overall investment merit,
Score™ n/m n/m
Avg. daily value traded (bns):
$41.8
n/m n/m
8.4% 12.6% ScoreTM,
For similar research plesae visit the ETF Research Center online see back page for details
our rating of an ETF's
Note: Unless otherwise noted, the source for all charts and tables is AltaVista Research calculations based on historical results and consensus estimates for fund constituents, as compiled by Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, and other data providers. This report if for information purposes only and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. Trademarks or Service Marks contined herein are the property of their respective owners. © 2010 AltaVista Research LLC. All rights reserved. See last page for additional discloures.
ETF Spotlight Fund Focus: Claymore/S&P Global Dividend (LVL) Trading History
Fund basics
ALTAR Score™
Fund assets ($mns)
$30 $25 $20
LVL
14
Avg. volume (000)
6
Expense ratio (bp)
66
9.7%
Avg.
Total returns (market)*
$15
$15.00
6.2%
One year
104.2%
$10
Five year
0.0%
Calculation: Avg. Rtn on Equity (5 yrs)
15.5%
$5
Ten year
0.0%
divided by: P/Book Value
÷ 1.4x
Since inception
$0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Bloomberg
Valuation metrics Price-to-Earnings
-11.8%
Beta vs. S&P 500
1.47
Standard deviation
20.6%
2011E
12.4
11.5
6.2
5.8
Price-to-Cash Flow Price-to-Sales
1.0
1.0
Price-to-Book Value
1.4
1.4
Yield (%)
7.1
7.0
− 66 bp
equals ALTAR Score™
= 9.7%
Note: Please visit www.etfresearchcenter.com for more information on the ALTAR ScoreTM, our rating of an ETF's overall investment merit,
*as of 03/31/10. See Notes.
2010E
less: expense ratio
Analyst's view: Although it appears profitability (both margins & ROE) will remain depressed and therefore the earnings recovery will be slow, dividend-oriented investors will like the fund's highdividend yields. The high yields in this case do not appear to be a sign of distress, as cash flow and EPS estimates imply ample coverage. And, with their relatively low yields, U.S. stocks account for less than one-quarter of assets in LVL.
Results & estimates* Sales per share Earnings per share
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
$12.13
$13.22
$13.69
$14.67
$14.09
$14.28
$14.60
$1.50
Change (%) Net margin
$1.48
$1.56
$1.63
$1.14
$1.21
$1.31
-1.1%
5.5%
4.2%
-30.0%
6.2%
8.2%
12.3%
11.2%
11.4%
11.1%
8.1%
8.5%
9.0%
Book value per share
$7.74
$8.90
$9.24
$9.08
$9.99
$10.13
$10.38
Dividends per share-gross
$0.83
$1.07
$1.16
$1.38
$1.05
$1.07
$1.06
*pro forma based on current fund constituents. See disclosures.
Return on Equity
25% 20% 15%
20.7%
Sector breakdown
Tech Materials
18.1% 17.4% 17.9% 11.8% 12.0% 12.7%
10% 5%
Compound growth rates (2005-10E)
Sales
Telecom
Industrials
Cons Discr
Financials
Energy
0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS
Utilities
Health Care
3.3%
Staples
n/m
Bk Val
5.5%
DPS
5.3% 0%
2%
4%
6%
© 2010 AltaVista Research, LLC. All Rights Reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See last page for additional disclosures.
ETF Spotlight Revisions, asset flows and short interest Estimate revisions Largest positive & negative revisions to 2010E EPS over the past month Ticker
Name
XGC
Claymore/BNY Mellon Intl Sml
2010E
1 month
2010E
ALTAR
EPS
change
P/E
Score™
+13.0%
17.3 x
5.1%
$1.25
IGW
iShares N. American Tech-Semiconductors
$3.14
+5.1%
16.1 x
3.8%
XSD
SPDR S&P Semiconductors
$2.90
+5.0%
17.0 x
3.0%
ECH
iShares MSCI Chile Investable
$3.37
+4.9%
16.9 x
3.9%
PSI
PowerShares Dyn Semiconduct
$1.08
+4.8%
13.1 x
3.9%
KIE
SPDR KBW Insurance ETF
$3.06
-4.1%
13.8 x
7.2%
IEO
iShares DJ Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$3.08
-3.8%
18.6 x
8.0%
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration
$2.32
-3.8%
19.2 x
9.1%
IAK
iShares DJ US Insurance Ind
$2.88
-3.4%
10.7 x
11.6%
PIC
PowerShares Dyn Insurance Pt
$1.61
-2.8%
9.7 x
12.4%
*Note: Among ETFs with 2010E EPS of at least $1.00.
Asset Inflows
Asset Outflows
Top 5 increases in AUM (ticker, ALTAR Score™ )
Top 5 decreases in AUM (ticker, ATLAR Score™ )
Russell 2000 (IWM, 3.0%)
$1,409
Vngd Emg Mkts (VWO, 9.1%)
$1,032
Financial SPDR (XLF, 7.8%)
$494
iShrs Emg Mkts (EEM, 8.7%)
$355
MSCI EAFE (EFA, 8.1%)
-$316
SPDR S&P Retail (XRT, 5.8%)
-$208
Cons. Staples SPDR (XLP, 6.7%)
-$170
($millions) $500
$1,000
-$5,254
NASDAQ-100 (QQQQ, 4.9%)
Materials SPDR (XLB, 6.9%)
$274 $0
S&P500 SPDR (SPY, 7.5%)
-$6,000
$1,500
($millions) -$3,000
-$159 $0
Short Interest Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding Short
ALTAR
Interest
Score™
SPDR S&P Retail ETF
396%
5.8%
PMR
PowerShares Dynamic Retail
176%
4.3%
IYR
iShares Dow Jones Real Estate
141%
3.8%
KRE
SPDR KBW Regional Banking
131%
5.5%
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration
110%
9.1%
IWM
iShares Russell 2000
109%
3.0%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
53%
6.9%
XME
SPDR Metals & Mining ETF
44%
7.6%
IYM
iShares DJ US Basic Materials
42%
7.3%
SPY
S&P 500 SPDR
41%
7.5%
Ticker
Name
XRT
© 2010 AltaVista Research, LLC. All Rights Reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See last page for additional disclosures.
ETF Spotlight Major ETFs: select estimates & valuation metrics YoY
2010E
DPS
change
Yield
Name
(%)
(%)
S&P 500 SPDR
1.5%
2.26
2.0%
1.8%
7.5%
DIA
Dow Industrials DIAMONDS
0.7%
2.85
3.8%
2.5%
8.2%
QQQQ
NASDAQ-100
1.8%
0.47
8.4%
0.9%
4.9%
MDY
S&P MidCap 400 SPDR
2.2%
1.98
1.8%
1.3%
5.8%
IWM
iShares Russell 2000
2.7%
1.11
18.3%
1.5%
3.0%
IVW
iShrs S&P 500 Growth
1.3%
0.93
6.6%
1.5%
7.0%
IVE
iShrs S&P 500 Value
1.6%
1.30
-0.8%
2.2%
8.0%
IWF
iShrs Russell 1000 Grwth
1.2%
0.82
4.8%
1.5%
6.6%
IWD
iShrs Russell 1000 Value
1.9%
1.41
-0.5%
2.2%
7.9%
IJT
iShrs S&P 600 Sml Growth
1.7%
0.51
0.5%
0.8%
5.6%
IJS
iShrs S&P 600 Sml Value
2.9%
0.88
-6.6%
1.3%
5.2%
IWN
iShrs Russell 2000 Value
3.3%
1.67
21.7%
2.5%
3.7%
IWO
iShrs Russell 2000 Growth
1.9%
0.44
5.2%
0.5%
2.1%
EFA
iShrs MSCI EAFE Index
0.3%
1.91
9.6%
3.3%
8.1%
EEM
iShrs MSCI Emg. Mkts.
1.3%
1.36
22.8%
3.1%
8.7%
FXI
iShrs FTSE/Xinhua China 25
3.1%
1.20
17.3%
2.6%
7.1%
EWJ
iShrs MSCI Japan Index
0.4%
0.19
10.6%
1.8%
4.2%
EWZ
iShrs MSCI Brazil Index
0.7%
2.15
73.4%
2.8%
12.8%
XLY
Discretionary Sector SPDR
2.7%
0.47
14.2%
1.3%
4.6%
XLP
Staples Sector SPDR
-0.2%
0.82
8.2%
2.9%
6.7%
XLE
Energy Sector SPDR
2.2%
1.09
0.8%
1.8%
10.1%
XLF
Financials Sector SPDR
2.9%
0.19
-0.8%
1.1%
7.8%
International
Ticker SPY
Sector SPDRs
(%)
($)
ALTAR
Benchmarks
2010E
change
Growth & Value
Weekly
Score™
XLV
Health Care Sector SPDR
-0.7%
0.65
0.6%
2.0%
10.0%
XLI XLB
Industrials Sector SPDR Materials Sector SPDR
1.1% 1.2%
0.64 0.63
-9.2% 0.9%
2.0% 1.7%
6.7% 6.9%
XLK
Technology Sector SPDR
1.8%
0.35
4.4%
1.5%
6.2%
XLU
Utilities Sector SPDR
0.6%
1.33
3.2%
4.4%
9.0%
© 2010 AltaVista Research, LLC. All Rights Reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See last page for additional disclosures.
ETF Spotlight Market monitor: Movers & Categories Best performers last week
Worst performers last week
Ticker, weekly change (%)
Ticker, weekly change (%)
GDXJ
6.5%
TUR
PAGG
-1.9%
KBE
5.2%
IAT
5.2% 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
EWI
-1.5%
5.7%
BJK
THD
-1.6%
6.0%
IHF
-1.2%
EWL
-1.2%
6%
7%
-3%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-1%
0%
ALTAR Ticker
Name
Score™
GDXJ
Mark Vectors Jr Gold Miners
n/m
ALTAR Ticker
Name
Score™
PAGG
PowerShares Global Agriculture
7.2%
TUR
iShares MSCI Turkey Investable
10.4%
THD
iShares MSCI Thailand
KBE
KBW Bank ETF
4.9%
EWI
iShares MSCI Italy Index
BJK
Market Vectors Gaming ETF
7.1%
IHF
iShares DJ US Health Care Providers
8.0%
IAT
iShares DJ US Regional Banks
5.1%
EWL
iShares MSCI Switzerland
6.4%
ETF Price Change by Category
Large Cap
ETF Flows by Category ($mns and % of AUM)
1.5%
Mid Cap
Large Cap (-3.7%) 2.1%
Small Cap 1.5%
Value Developed
0.0%
0.5% 1.4% 1.0%
$248
Small Cap (6.5%)
$1,563
Growth (0.1%) 2.2%
Emerging
-$5,412
Mid Cap (1.0%) 2.6%
Growth
7.7% 11.4%
$31
Value (1.1%)
$369
Developed (0.8%)
$576
Emerging (1.9%) 2.0%
3.0%
-$10,000
$1,874 -$5,000
$0
$5,000
© 2010 AltaVista Research, LLC. All Rights Reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See last page for additional disclosures.