CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
COLORED DIAMONDS As an asset class
LEGAL DISCLOSURE This is not an offering for the sale of securities or colored diamonds.
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Information contained herein is the property of Sciens Capital Management LLC and its affiliates and may not be distributed without written permission
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WHAT ARE COLORED DIAMONDS?
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Geologists place the formation of most natural occurring diamonds between 4.6 billion and 500 million years ago (King) when crystals of pure carbon formed under extreme temperature and pressure about 100 miles under the earth’s surface
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During the formation process, a non-carbon element (such as boron, nitrogen, or hydrogen) would occasionally become trapped in the carbon, adding color to the diamonds
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Fancy colored diamonds are one of the rarest kinds of natural resources in the world. Only one in ten thousand diamonds has a “fancy” color [Gemological Institute of America (“GIA”)]
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The supply constraint for these beautiful stones enhances their allure even further with a number of appealing attributes such as uncorrelated returns, consistent and long term value growth, and downside risk protection
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DIAMOND PRODUCTION Before the 19th century, diamonds were mostly found along the deltas of certain rivers in Southern India. The first recorded diamond mining project began in South Africa circa 1870, with the Kimberley Mine (Balfour) According to Bain’s 2015 Global Diamond Report, there are five major producers of rough diamonds - ALROSA, De Beers, Rio Tinto, Dominion Diamond, and Petra Diamonds - that in 2014 accounted for 70% of total global production
In 2014, Russia and Botswana were the largest diamond producers, mining ~30% and ~20% of global output respectively (Kimberly Process Certification Scheme)
Mined diamonds are divided into two categories: industrial grade and gem grade
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STRUCTURE OF THE MARKET
Stones of one carat or more account for only about 10% of polished-diamond production but about 35% of polished-diamond value - Bain & Company, 2014 Global Diamond Report PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Information contained herein is the property of Sciens Capital Management LLC and its affiliates and may not be distributed without written permission
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DIAMOND SUPPLY CHAIN
ROUGH DIAMONDS STAGE COMPANY
POLISHED DIAMONDS
DIAMOND JEWELRY
ROUGH-DIAMOND DEALERS
POLISHED-DIAMOND MANUFACTURERS
POLISHED-DIAMOND DEALERS
JEWELRY MANUFACTURERS
Mining Companies
Polishers / cutters
Dealers in major cities
Jewelry manufacturers
(De Beers, Rio Tinto, etc)
RETAIL JEWELERS Retail jewelers
(~26 companies)
(NY, London, Dubai, etc)
(Cartier, Bulgari, etc)
(Asprey, H. Winston, Graff)
MARKET SIZE¹
US $14B – $15B
US $17B – $21B
US $18B – $23B
US $35B – $47B
US $69B – $72B
MARGIN UPLIFT
3% – 5%
21% – 40%
6% – 10%
94% – 104%
53% – 97%
¹Estimated gross revenue per year Source: Mining Journal, The Diamond Industry “Miss to Mistress”, Bain & Company, Sciens Analysis
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DIAMOND PRODUCTION BREAKDOWN
Following GIA’s fancy colored diamond market size estimate, approximately 2-3k carats of fancy colored diamonds are produced annually.
Annul Production, carats
~55-65M
~2-3k
~125M
Total rough-diamond production
Waste from cutting & polishing
~40-50M
Polished Diamonds
~20-25M
Industrial-grade rough diamonds
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~20-25M Gem-quality rough diamonds
Fancy colored diamonds Source: Bain, GIA
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FANCY COLORED DIAMOND LOCATIONS
Unlike colorless diamonds, which are found across the globe and cannot be associated with a specific origin after mined (unless marked); a fancy colored diamond may easily be associated with the specific region where it was formed. For example, Australia’s Argyle Mine produces more than 90% of the world’s pink diamonds (Rio Tinto)
MINAS GERAIS MINE CULLINAN MINE
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KOLLUR MINE ARGYLE MINE
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CLASSIFYING DIAMONDS u
Every diamond is unique
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Scarcity has traditionally been the main driver of colorless and fancy colored diamond prices
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Today, one of the most widely used methods for valuing diamonds relies on the concept of “The 4Cs”, introduced by the GIA
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This methodology assigns value based on a diamond’s specific Color, Clarity, Cut and Carat Weight
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Each “C” has a different scale and may have a different impact on a colorless or a fancy colored stone
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GIA 4Cs GRADING METHODOLOGY
COLOR
CLARITY
CUT
CARAT WEIGHT
Source: Gemological Institute of America
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COLORLESS VS FANCY COLORED
DIFFERENCES IN VALUING DIAMONDS – COLOR
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SCARCITY & VALUE – PRODUCTION INDICATIVE FANCY COLORED DIAMOND SUPPLY APPROX. COLORLESS DIAMOND SUPPLY: ~ 20,000,000 – 25,000,000 CARATS EST. FANCY COLORED / COLORLESS RATIO: 1 / 10,000 EST. FANCY COLORED DIAMOND SUPPLY: ~2,000 – 2,500 CARATS EST. INTENSE-VIVID AS % OF FANCY COLORED DIAMONDS: ~5% – 10% EST. INTENSE-VIVID SUPPLY: ~100 – 200 CARATS Source: Bain & Company, GIA, Sciens Analysis.
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SCARCITY – IN CONTEXT APPROX. ANNUAL ROUGH-DIAMOND WORLD PRODUCTION – MEASURED AS AFRICAN ELEPHANTS
African Elephant average weight: 9,500 lbs1 Annual total rough-diamond production approximately weighs as much as 6 African Elephants
EST. ANNUAL FANCY COLORED DIAMOND WORLD PRODUCTION – MEASURED AS SIBERIAN CHIPMUNCKS
Siberian chipmunk average weight: 3.6 Oz2 Estimated annual fancy colored diamond production approximately weighs as much as a 4 Siberian Chipmunks
1http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/mammals/african-elephant/ 2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_chipmunk PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Information contained herein is the property of Sciens Capital Management LLC and its affiliates and may not be distributed without written permission
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RECENT MARKET TRANSACTIONS (2015 – 2016) COLOR
CARAT WEIGHT
PRICE (US$)
PRICE PER CARAT
FANCY VIVID BLUE
12.03
$48,500,000
$4,031,588
FANCY VIVID PINK
16.08
$28,500,000
$1,772,388
FANCY VIVID BLUE
10.10
$32,000,000
$3,168,317
FANCY VIVID GREEN
5.03
$16,820,000
$3,343,936
PICTURE
Source: Sotheby’s, Christie’s. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Information contained herein is the property of Sciens Capital Management LLC and its affiliates and may not be distributed without written permission
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DIAMOND PRICE RANGES PRICE RANGES ALONG THE COLOR SCALE
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FANCY COLORED DIAMONDS AS AN ASSET CLASS u
Most investors will naturally think of gold as the quintessential inflation hedge/real asset investment target
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In the wake of the “new normal” investors are beginning to move into asset classes such as fancy colored diamonds to diversify their portfolios in search of uncorrelated returns with an attractive risk/return profile
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Sciens’ Real Assets Research Team conducted an extensive analysis on the long-term performance of stocks, gold, colorless, and fancy colored diamonds
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Results show that fancy colored diamonds outperformed all of these asset classes with low systematic risk and the lowest volatility
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FANCY COLORED DIAMONDS AS AN ASSET CLASS 10+ YEAR PERFORMANCE (JAN 2005 – JUL 2016)
Source: Fancy Color Research Foundation PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Information contained herein is the property of Sciens Capital Management LLC and its affiliates and may not be distributed without written permission
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FANCY COLORED DIAMONDS AS AN ASSET CLASS PERFORMANCE RESULTS (2006 – 2016) S&P 500
Gold
Colorless Diamonds
Annualized Return
4.25%
6.99%
-0.33%
8.94%
Volatility
16.28%
17.99%
12.44%
11.30%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
0.23
-0.25
0.54
Beta to S&P
1.00
-0.15
0.23
0.42
16.10%
10.80%
6.66%
9.92%
Downside Deviation
Fancy Colored Diamonds
Note: Based on semi-annual index returns from January 31 2006 to January 31 2016, downside deviation assumes an annual MAR of 6%. Source: Bloomberg, Fancy Color Research Foundation PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Information contained herein is the property of Sciens Capital Management LLC and its affiliates and may not be distributed without written permission
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REAL ASSET INVESTMENT REMARKS When analyzing the performance of real assets, it is important to address two issues: First, distinguish between the actual real asset and the financial securities tied to the price of such asset
Second, consider real assets’ differentiators such as their high barriers to entry and their recognition for holding intrinsic value
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Gold is a perfect example
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Still regarded by many investors as one of the safest asset classes when acquired in bullion, it may be argued that currently the price of gold is more influenced by speculative macro trading by investors taking a risk-on/risk-off approach to traditional financial markets, making it less attractive as a real asset investment
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Fancy colored diamond scarcity makes it very unlikely for these gems to be used as a proxy for a financial security, while historic price appreciation has been driven by classic supply and demand dynamics. This leads us to believe that fancy colored diamonds will continue to benefit from the investment fundamentals that real asset investors seek.
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FANCY COLORED DIAMONDS AS AN ASSET CLASS PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
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REAL ASSET INVESTMENT REMARKS
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For centuries, the extraordinary scarcity and unparalleled elegance of fancy colored diamonds made them the ultimate object of desire for royalty across Europe
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Mining advances in the twentieth century brought them forward as the definition of luxury through elaborate pieces of jewelry
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In recent years the price behavior of these unique gems has shown their brilliance does not only lie in their beauty, but also in their performance as an emerging and investable asset class and long-term store of value.
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Information contained herein is the property of Sciens Capital Management LLC and its affiliates and may not be distributed without written permission
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REFERENCES u
Bain & Co. bain.com. 9 December 2014. 10 June 2015 .
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Balfour, Ian. Famous Diamonds. London: William Collins, Sons & Company Ltd, 1987.
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Gemological Institute of America. gia.edu. 2015. 10 June 2015 .
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Gemological Institute of America. 4cs.gia.edu. 2015. 10 June 2015 .
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Gemological Institute of America. 4cs.gia.edu. 2015. 10 June 2015 .
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Kimberly Process Certification Scheme. kimberlyprocessstatistics.org. 1 July 2014. 10 June 2015 .
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King, Hobart. geology.com. 10 June 2015 .
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Rio Tinto. riotinto.com. 12 August 2014. 10 June 2015 .
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WWW International Diamond Consultants. diamondwww.com. July 2007. 10 June 2015 .
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Information contained herein is the property of Sciens Capital Management LLC and its affiliates and may not be distributed without written permission
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