Events/Stowe/Stowe VT 2016 07 18 Alexander Green
“Ten-Baggers of Tomorrow” The Oxford Club’s PRIVATE WEALTH SEMINAR Stowe, Vermont July 18-29, 2016
Total Nominal Return Indices Total Nominal Return Indices January 1802 – December 31, 2006
The Best Mutual Fund Manager … Ever • Peter Lynch managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990 • He generated a 29.2% annual return • Wrote “One Up on Wall Street” • Coined the term “Ten-Baggers” • How diversified portfolios outperform
Best 10-Yr Stocks
v
Best Performing 30-Year Stocks
Characteristics of Ten-Baggers • • • • • • • •
Small- to mid-cap stocks Relatively unknown Tremendous innovators Exceptional sales growth (30% or more) A moat around the business (profit margins) Insider ownership Beating consensus estimates At least one near-death experience
Our Ten-Baggers Sell Strategy • • • • •
Oxford Trading Portfolio: 25% Trailing Stop VIP Trading Portfolio: Laddered Stops Oxford All-Star Portfolio: No Stops Gone Fishin’ Portfolio: Annual Rebalancing Ten-Bagger Portfolio: A 25%+ Earnings Miss
Opko Health (Nasdaq: OPK) - $9 • A diversified health care company specializing in pharmaceuticals and diagnostics • The diagnostics division includes Bio-Reference Laboratories, the nation’s third-largest clinical lab • Sells in-vitro medical tests • Its working on drugs to treat cancer, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, multiple sclerosis and Parkinson’s disease.
Opko Health (Nasdaq: OPK) • It has teamed with Bristol Meyers to develop a test for early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s • Revenue is increasing 867% year over year • The company has beaten estimates by an average of 238% during the last four quarters • Chairman and CEO Dr. Phillip Frost: 183 million shares
First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) - $47.75 • A leader in “photovoltaic energy solutions” • It has developed, constructed and currently operates many of the world’s largest grid-connected PV power plants. (Installed capacity tops 10 gigawatts.) • Delivers electricity at a cost that is competitive with fossil fuels • There is no correlation between oil prices and solar energy: 39% coal, 27% natural gas, 19% nuclear, 7% hydro, 6% renewables and 1% oil.
First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) • Market cap: $4.9 billion • Not currently profitable. Sales growing 81% year over year. • It has beaten the consensus estimate by an average 116% rate over the last four quarters • Revenue is increasing 81% year over year • Insiders own 27% of outstanding shares
Applied Optoelectronics (Nasdaq: AAOI) - $11.75 • A leading provider of fiber-optic networking products • The company designs and manufactures analog and digital lasers using a proprietary Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE) fabrication process • Holds 74 U.S. Patents on its products • Sales are growing 67% year over year
Applied Optoelectronics (Nasdaq: AAOI) • Not currently profitable but company should earn 45 cents a share this year and more than $1.15 in 2017 • Company has beaten the consensus by an average 17% over the last two quarters • Insiders own 7% of outstanding shares • Recent insider buying • Market cap is just $200 million
Total Nominal Return Indices Total Nominal Return Indices January 1802 – December 31, 2006
The Best Mutual Fund Manager … Ever • Peter Lynch managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990 • He generated a 29.2% annual return • Wrote “One Up on Wall Street” • Coined the term “Ten-Baggers” • How diversified portfolios outperform
Best 10-Yr Stocks
v
Best Performing 30-Year Stocks
Characteristics of Ten-Baggers • • • • • • • •
Small- to mid-cap stocks Relatively unknown Tremendous innovators Exceptional sales growth (30% or more) A moat around the business (profit margins) Insider ownership Beating consensus estimates At least one near-death experience
Our Ten-Baggers Sell Strategy • • • • •
Oxford Trading Portfolio: 25% Trailing Stop VIP Trading Portfolio: Laddered Stops Oxford All-Star Portfolio: No Stops Gone Fishin’ Portfolio: Annual Rebalancing Ten-Bagger Portfolio: A 25%+ Earnings Miss
Opko Health (Nasdaq: OPK) - $9 • A diversified health care company specializing in pharmaceuticals and diagnostics • The diagnostics division includes Bio-Reference Laboratories, the nation’s third-largest clinical lab • Sells in-vitro medical tests • Its working on drugs to treat cancer, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, multiple sclerosis and Parkinson’s disease.
Opko Health (Nasdaq: OPK) • It has teamed with Bristol Meyers to develop a test for early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s • Revenue is increasing 867% year over year • The company has beaten estimates by an average of 238% during the last four quarters • Chairman and CEO Dr. Phillip Frost: 183 million shares
First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) - $47.75 • A leader in “photovoltaic energy solutions” • It has developed, constructed and currently operates many of the world’s largest grid-connected PV power plants. (Installed capacity tops 10 gigawatts.) • Delivers electricity at a cost that is competitive with fossil fuels • There is no correlation between oil prices and solar energy: 39% coal, 27% natural gas, 19% nuclear, 7% hydro, 6% renewables and 1% oil.
First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) • Market cap: $4.9 billion • Not currently profitable. Sales growing 81% year over year. • It has beaten the consensus estimate by an average 116% rate over the last four quarters • Revenue is increasing 81% year over year • Insiders own 27% of outstanding shares
Applied Optoelectronics (Nasdaq: AAOI) - $11.75 • A leading provider of fiber-optic networking products • The company designs and manufactures analog and digital lasers using a proprietary Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE) fabrication process • Holds 74 U.S. Patents on its products • Sales are growing 67% year over year
Applied Optoelectronics (Nasdaq: AAOI) • Not currently profitable but company should earn 45 cents a share this year and more than $1.15 in 2017 • Company has beaten the consensus by an average 17% over the last two quarters • Insiders own 7% of outstanding shares • Recent insider buying • Market cap is just $200 million
