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(19) United States (12) Patent Application Publication (10) Pub. No.: US 2012/0317058 A1 (43) Pub. Date:
ABHULIMEN (54)
(57) ABSTRACT A method for predicting risk and designing safety manage ment systems of complex production and process systems Which has been applied to an FPSO System operating in deep
DESIGN OF COMPUTER BASED RISK AND SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OF COMPLEX PRODUCTION AND MULTIFUNCTIONAL PROCESS FACILITIES-APPLICATION TO FPSO’S
Waters. The methods for the design Were derived from the inclusion of a Weight index in a fuZZy class belief variable in the risk model to assign the relative numerical value or impor tance a safety device or system has contain a risk haZards
(76) Inventor: Kingsley E. ABHULIMEN, Westbury, NY (US)
Within the barrier. The Weights index distributes the relative importance of risk events in series or parallel in several inter active risk and safety device systems. The fault tree, the FMECA and the BoW Tie noW contains Weights in ?zzy belief
(21) Appl. No.: 13/158,873 (22)
Filed:
class for implementing safety management programs critical
Jun. 13, 2011
to the process systems. The techniques uses the results of
neural netWorks derived from fuZZy belief systems of Weight index to implement the safety design systems thereby limit ing use of experienced procedures and benchmarks. The Weight index incorporate Safety Factors sets SFri {0, 0.1, 0.2
Publication Classi?cation
(51)
Int. Cl.
G06N 7/04 G06N 3/06 G06N 7/02
(52)
. . . 1}, and Markov Chain NetWork to alloW the possibility of
(2006.01) (2006.01) (2006.01)
evaluating the impact of different risks or reliability of mul tifunctional systems in transient state process. The applica tion of this technique and results of simulation to typical FPSO/ Riser systems has been discussed in this invention.
US. Cl. ............................................ .. 706/2; 706/52
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(19) United States (12) Patent Application Publication (10) Pub. No.: US 2012/0317058 A1 (43) Pub. Date:
ABHULIMEN (54)
(57) ABSTRACT A method for predicting risk and designing safety manage ment systems of complex production and process systems Which has been applied to an FPSO System operating in deep
DESIGN OF COMPUTER BASED RISK AND SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OF COMPLEX PRODUCTION AND MULTIFUNCTIONAL PROCESS FACILITIES-APPLICATION TO FPSO’S
Waters. The methods for the design Were derived from the inclusion of a Weight index in a fuZZy class belief variable in the risk model to assign the relative numerical value or impor tance a safety device or system has contain a risk haZards
(76) Inventor: Kingsley E. ABHULIMEN, Westbury, NY (US)
Within the barrier. The Weights index distributes the relative importance of risk events in series or parallel in several inter active risk and safety device systems. The fault tree, the FMECA and the BoW Tie noW contains Weights in ?zzy belief
(21) Appl. No.: 13/158,873 (22)
Filed:
class for implementing safety management programs critical
Jun. 13, 2011
to the process systems. The techniques uses the results of
neural netWorks derived from fuZZy belief systems of Weight index to implement the safety design systems thereby limit ing use of experienced procedures and benchmarks. The Weight index incorporate Safety Factors sets SFri {0, 0.1, 0.2
Publication Classi?cation
(51)
Int. Cl.
G06N 7/04 G06N 3/06 G06N 7/02
(52)
. . . 1}, and Markov Chain NetWork to alloW the possibility of
(2006.01) (2006.01) (2006.01)
evaluating the impact of different risks or reliability of mul tifunctional systems in transient state process. The applica tion of this technique and results of simulation to typical FPSO/ Riser systems has been discussed in this invention.
US. Cl. ............................................ .. 706/2; 706/52
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Patent Application Publication
Dec. 13, 2012 Sheet 1 0f 62
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US 2012/0317058 A1
Patent Application Publication
Dec. 13, 2012 Sheet 2 0f 62
P56. 18
Create a Parametiric Made!
v zfgxlr x2: "ml-xii)"
Generate a-Set of
Random Inputs
l
Evaluate the madei and store the results as y,
R'e?eat steps 2 and 3 f6} 5: 1 ‘to n‘
l
Analyzé- the results
US 2012/0317058 A1
Patent Application Publication
Dec. 13, 2012 Sheet 3 0f 62
US 2012/0317058 A1
HKazard
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