february 2016 market commentary
COMMENTARY
FEBRUARY 2016 MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS • In February, safe-haven assets
continued to fare best in rapidly changing market conditions.
• Muni yields fell to near-record
lows in February, but we believe that steepness in the muni curve provides opportunities.
• In Tax-Efficient portfolios, we remain focused on high-quality bonds and we continue to strategically increase exposure to strong credits in dedicated revenue sectors.
• In Government Credit portfolios,
Breckinridge remains underweight to BBB names, but maintains agility to make opportunistic BBB selections.
MARKET REVIEW And the Winner Is … Treasury Bonds? In February, the story of fixed income was told from a complex screenplay, with oil pricing, FOMC commentary, Brexit uncertainty, banks’ energy exposure, and economic data all receiving award nominations for “Most Worrisome to Market Participants.” The month began with significant volatility in equity and credit markets spawned by oil price declines, data showing poor manufacturing results out of China and lackluster U.S. performance on manufacturing and personal spending. In the first week of the month, the dollar fell sharply, Treasury yields dropped and markets recalibrated rate-hike expectations to roughly 25 percent odds of a rate hike in June. Midmonth, U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen made comments that did not rule out the possibility of negative rates in the U.S. These comments, following Japan’s unveiling of negative rates at the end of January, prompted further anxieties about global growth, sending Treasuries even lower and lifting gold to its highest level in a year. In the second half of the month (spoiler alert) market tone improved. Suggestions of an oil freeze from major oil-producing nations; better-thanexpected U.S. durable goods and GDP data; and a RRR cut of 50 basis point (bps) from China helped smooth the ride for risk assets. In inflation news, January core PCE—the metric targeted by the Fed—rose 1.7 percent year-over-year, beating Fed year-end estimates of 1.6 percent. Also, U.S. labor was a bright spot throughout the month. Chair Yellen’s comments indicate that the FOMC continues to be data dependent, with key data points still pointing to an upward rate hike trajectory. Employment performed well in February, with contained jobless claims and a 158,000 rise in private sector jobs. The reported job growth was lower than expected, but still indicated job growth in excess of population growth. Our outlook remains for at least three rate hikes in 2016, which is out of line with the market consensus, but in line with FOMC comments. As of monthend, the probability of a rate hike in March was 10 percent, with the chance of one rate hike in 2016 at 50 percent. Despite the rise in sentiment in the latter part of February, Treasury bonds outperformed investment grade (IG) muni and corporate bonds overall, as safe haven assets continue to fare best in rapidly changing market conditions. The 10-year Treasury bond fell 20bps to end the month at 1.74 percent, returning 1
FEBRUARY 2016 MARKET COMMENTARY
Figure 1: Immediate Impact of Rate Hikes on Direction of Longer-Term Market Rates Has Been Mixed US Federal Reserve Rate Hike Cycle
1994
1999
2000
2004
Dates Referenced
01/31/94 through 03/31/95
03/31/99 through 12/31/99
01/31/00 through 06/30/00
03/31/04 through 12/31/04
Change in Federal Funds Rate
+3%
+0.75%
+1%
+1.25%
Change in Longer-Maturity Treasury Rates*
+1.21%
+0.85%
-0.59%
+0.08%
Directional Impact on Market Rates
Higher
Higher
Lower
Flat
evident in recent months. Overall, gross issuance came in at $29.85 billion for the month of February, down 11 percent versus February 2015, mainly due to a substantial decline in refunding transactions. On the demand side, retail muni bond funds have seen 21 straight weeks of inflows as of February 26. Year-to-date inflows have reached nearly $10 billion, per Lipper data.
*For 1994, 1999, and 2000, references 30-Year US Treasury Rates; for 2004, references 20-Year US Treasury Rates. Source: US Department of the Treasury and US Federal Reserve, as of March 3, 2016.
Even with the supply/demand tailwinds, munis lagged behind the big moves in Treasury bonds, and ratios for 10-year and 30-year maturities rose to the highest levels in over 4 months. As of February 29, 7-year, 10-year and 30-year ratios were at 85 percent, 101 percent and 107 percent, respectively.
0.98 percent and flying in the face of any expectations that December liftoff would immediately compel higher rates (Figure 1). Meanwhile, muni returns were muted, with the Barclays 1-10 Blend Index (with a duration of around 4) up 0.24 percent. The Barclays U.S. Intermediate Corporate Index returned 0.44 percent. The Treasury curve flattened further in February, as rates in the front end of the curve were flat to higher, while long end rates moved lower.
supportive enough for the Chicago Board of Education to complete its deal after it was previously postponed, though they had to pay a hefty premium on the bonds (the municipality priced $675 million general obligation (GO) bonds).
TAX-EXEMPT MARKET REVIEW Yields Fit for the Small Screen
Figure Yields Fell to Near-Record Lows Figure 2: Muni Yields Fell2:toMuni Near-Record Lows
Munis began the month with light supply, while demand remained robust. The environment was
10 0 Change in Yield (bps)
During the month, muni bond yields plummeted to near-record lows in sympathy with falling Treasury yields (Figure 2). Munis exhibited stability due to solid supply/demand technicals and constructive underlying fundamentals, aside from well-publicized problems in some pockets (Puerto Rico, Chicago, Illinois) of the market.
As the month progressed, supply picked up as the environment improved. Demand remained strong, but did not display the consistent oversubscriptions or lowering of yields
Nonetheless, the absolute level of muni yields remained extremely low to close out the month. Still, steepness in the muni curve keeps opportunities alive in the space, in our view. As the market has pared back expectations for a March rate hike, 5-year muni bonds have performed well, prompting noteworthy steepening for the 5- to 30-year portion of the curve.
-10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 1 YR
2 YR
3 YR
5 YR
7 YR
10 YR
20 YR
30 YR
YTD Change in Treasury Yields YTD Change in AAA GO Yields Source: Thomson Reuters, US Department of the Treasury, as of February 29, 2016.
2
FEBRUARY 2016 MARKET COMMENTARY
Looking closer at credit trends, fundamentals overall remain strong. However, oil-producing states saw more troubled times in terms of ratings. On February 25, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Louisiana’s GO bonds by one notch to Aa3. North Dakota was downgraded to AA+ from AAA by Standard & Poor’s on February 18.
GOVERNMENT CREDIT MARKET REVIEW Not Quite a Hollywood Ending Following the same theme of other risk assets in February, investment grade corporate bonds had a rough start, but picked up positive steam toward the end of the month. After widening over 20bps through midmonth, the Barclays U.S. Intermediate Corporate Index rebounded in the latter half of February and ended 3bps wider. In general, credit spreads remain wide and have reached recessionary levels due to many of the same swath of risks that markets have seen for some time now. U.S. financial spreads widened 21bps during the month of February, with investors concerned about the pending EU referendum in Britain, the flattening yield curve and its effect on bank profitability, and loan exposure to the energy sector. In the first part of the month, volatile equity markets and lagging oil prices carried over to the investment grade corporate market, sending spreads
wider. High-quality retailers and utilities fared better during this period. By contrast, in the second half of the month, higher-beta sectors such as telecom, media and technology and banks performed better as the market backdrop brightened. Overall, the best-performing sectors for February were metals, midstream, restaurants, chemicals and cable/satellite. Oil field services, refining, life, property and casualty, and paper had the worst showing, Barclays data shows. By rating, crossover credits had the best performance, while BBB names did the worst, per Barclays. The most dramatic swing in the month occurred in the IG primary market. Supply started out at a desolate pace. Only just over $5 billion of supply was priced the first two weeks of the month, which included several days of absolutely no supply. As a trenchant display of the markets’ lack of appetite for riskier credits, year-to-date, highyield supply has decreased 57 percent versus the same period in 2015, and only 32 percent of high yield supply is split BB or lower (versus 58 percent in full-year 2015). However, IG supply
came back to life the last two weeks of the month, as $58 billion priced post President’s Day—including two AAA deals. New issues performed well, seeing reduced concessions and strong performance on the “break” to secondary market trading. Following AB InBev’s $46 billion deal in January, issuance continued to be driven by M&A rather than refinancing transactions. Despite the slow start, total IG supply for February was $113.6 billion, only slightly lower than the February 2015 total of $116 billion. Fundamental credit challenges remain, shown by weaker company earnings and high leverage levels. The weakness in fundamentals has led to ratings downgrades, often multi-notch and for multiple names across sectors. In just the first two months of 2016, the credit markets have seen more fallen angels than in any full calendar year since 2009, per Barclays. Given the underperformance of higher-beta sectors, the spread between BBB and single A corporates has surged to its highest level since mid2009 (Figure 3). In-depth analysis
Figure 3: BBB Credits Are Notably Cheap Relative Figure 3: BBB Credits Are Notably Cheap Relative to Single A’s to Single A’s 250 Option-Adjusted Spread (bps)
Specifically, the pickup in yield from extending to a 10-year bond from a 5-year bond resulted in a yield pick-up of 83bps as of February 29 for a threemonth high. Extending from 10 years to 15 years meant a yield pickup of 48bps, just shy of a three-month high.
200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
Mar-14 Mar-15
Spread Differential Between BBB and Single-A Corporate Credits Source: Barclays, as of February 29, 2016.
3
FEBRUARY 2016 MARKET COMMENTARY
of idiosyncratic risks remains paramount for investors seeking to take advantage of attractive valuations in investment grade.
BRECKINRIDGE STRATEGY Markets Roll *Up* the Fed Carpet
going forward. Nonetheless, market expectations continue to lag the Fed’s projections. Following the equity market rout early in February and ongoing geopolitical turmoil, markets have lowered the probability of a March rate hike to about 10 percent.
40 percent to 45 percent and reduced its government security allocation from 30 percent to 25 percent. This is not a significant move given prior positioning. The change was opportunistic and based on attractive relative valuation of high grade bonds. We remain underweight to BBB names, but we are actively monitoring this position, and we maintain agility to make strategic BBB selections.
In its January meeting, the FOMC maintained its target Fed Funds rate of 25bps to 50bps. The FOMC acknowledged that recent economic data has been weak and recent financial and foreign developments may pose risks to the U.S. economy. Fed Chair Yellen has noted that the FOMC still expects the rate trajectory to be rising rather than falling
Breckinridge continues to expect a bear flattening of the U.S. yield curve and Fed normalization at a measured pace. We maintain relatively neutral duration targets in our Government Credit and Tax-Efficient strategies. In our Government Credit portfolios, the Investment Committee increased the corporate allocation target from
In our Tax-Efficient portfolios, we remain focused on high-quality bonds and we are comfortable with our overweight to local GO’s. We continue to increase exposure to strong credits in dedicated revenue sectors when possible.
FOOTNOTES:
5. Barclays U.S. Intermediate Corporate Index, Option
8. JP Morgan, as of February 26, 2016.
1. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as of March 1, 2016.
Adjusted Spread as of February 29, 2016.
9. JP Morgan, as of February 26, 2016.
2. Municipal Market Analytics, as of February 3, 2016.
6. Barclays U.S. Intermediate Corporate Index,
10. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, as of
3. The Bond Buyer, as of February 29, 2016.
Financial Institutions, Option Adjusted Spread, as of
4. Thomson Reuters The Municipal Market Monitor, as
February 29, 2016.
of February 29, 2016.
7. JP Morgan, as of February 17, 2016.
February 26, 2016. 11. Barclays, as of March 1, 2016. 12. Barclays, as of February 26, 2016.
DISCLAIMER: This material has been prepared for our clients and other interested parties and contains the opinions of Breckinridge Capital Advisors, Inc. Information and opinions are current as of the date(s) indicated and are subject to change without notice. Any specific securities or portfolio characteristics are for illustrative purposes and example only. They may not reflect historical, current or future investments in any client portfolio. Nothing in this document should be construed or relied upon as tax, legal or financial advice. All investments involve risk – including loss of principal. An investor should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions. Breckinridge can make no assurances, warranties or representations that any strategies described will meet their investment objectives or incur any profits.This document may include projections or other forward-looking statements, which are based on Breckinridge’s research, analysis, and assumptions. There can be no assurances that such projections will occur and the actual results may differ materially. Other events that were not taken into account in formulating such projections may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of any account. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This document includes information from companies not affiliated with Breckinridge (“third party content”). Breckinridge reasonably believes the third party content is reliable but cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
4
FEBRUARY 2016 MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS • In February, safe-haven assets
continued to fare best in rapidly changing market conditions.
• Muni yields fell to near-record
lows in February, but we believe that steepness in the muni curve provides opportunities.
• In Tax-Efficient portfolios, we remain focused on high-quality bonds and we continue to strategically increase exposure to strong credits in dedicated revenue sectors.
• In Government Credit portfolios,
Breckinridge remains underweight to BBB names, but maintains agility to make opportunistic BBB selections.
MARKET REVIEW And the Winner Is … Treasury Bonds? In February, the story of fixed income was told from a complex screenplay, with oil pricing, FOMC commentary, Brexit uncertainty, banks’ energy exposure, and economic data all receiving award nominations for “Most Worrisome to Market Participants.” The month began with significant volatility in equity and credit markets spawned by oil price declines, data showing poor manufacturing results out of China and lackluster U.S. performance on manufacturing and personal spending. In the first week of the month, the dollar fell sharply, Treasury yields dropped and markets recalibrated rate-hike expectations to roughly 25 percent odds of a rate hike in June. Midmonth, U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen made comments that did not rule out the possibility of negative rates in the U.S. These comments, following Japan’s unveiling of negative rates at the end of January, prompted further anxieties about global growth, sending Treasuries even lower and lifting gold to its highest level in a year. In the second half of the month (spoiler alert) market tone improved. Suggestions of an oil freeze from major oil-producing nations; better-thanexpected U.S. durable goods and GDP data; and a RRR cut of 50 basis point (bps) from China helped smooth the ride for risk assets. In inflation news, January core PCE—the metric targeted by the Fed—rose 1.7 percent year-over-year, beating Fed year-end estimates of 1.6 percent. Also, U.S. labor was a bright spot throughout the month. Chair Yellen’s comments indicate that the FOMC continues to be data dependent, with key data points still pointing to an upward rate hike trajectory. Employment performed well in February, with contained jobless claims and a 158,000 rise in private sector jobs. The reported job growth was lower than expected, but still indicated job growth in excess of population growth. Our outlook remains for at least three rate hikes in 2016, which is out of line with the market consensus, but in line with FOMC comments. As of monthend, the probability of a rate hike in March was 10 percent, with the chance of one rate hike in 2016 at 50 percent. Despite the rise in sentiment in the latter part of February, Treasury bonds outperformed investment grade (IG) muni and corporate bonds overall, as safe haven assets continue to fare best in rapidly changing market conditions. The 10-year Treasury bond fell 20bps to end the month at 1.74 percent, returning 1
FEBRUARY 2016 MARKET COMMENTARY
Figure 1: Immediate Impact of Rate Hikes on Direction of Longer-Term Market Rates Has Been Mixed US Federal Reserve Rate Hike Cycle
1994
1999
2000
2004
Dates Referenced
01/31/94 through 03/31/95
03/31/99 through 12/31/99
01/31/00 through 06/30/00
03/31/04 through 12/31/04
Change in Federal Funds Rate
+3%
+0.75%
+1%
+1.25%
Change in Longer-Maturity Treasury Rates*
+1.21%
+0.85%
-0.59%
+0.08%
Directional Impact on Market Rates
Higher
Higher
Lower
Flat
evident in recent months. Overall, gross issuance came in at $29.85 billion for the month of February, down 11 percent versus February 2015, mainly due to a substantial decline in refunding transactions. On the demand side, retail muni bond funds have seen 21 straight weeks of inflows as of February 26. Year-to-date inflows have reached nearly $10 billion, per Lipper data.
*For 1994, 1999, and 2000, references 30-Year US Treasury Rates; for 2004, references 20-Year US Treasury Rates. Source: US Department of the Treasury and US Federal Reserve, as of March 3, 2016.
Even with the supply/demand tailwinds, munis lagged behind the big moves in Treasury bonds, and ratios for 10-year and 30-year maturities rose to the highest levels in over 4 months. As of February 29, 7-year, 10-year and 30-year ratios were at 85 percent, 101 percent and 107 percent, respectively.
0.98 percent and flying in the face of any expectations that December liftoff would immediately compel higher rates (Figure 1). Meanwhile, muni returns were muted, with the Barclays 1-10 Blend Index (with a duration of around 4) up 0.24 percent. The Barclays U.S. Intermediate Corporate Index returned 0.44 percent. The Treasury curve flattened further in February, as rates in the front end of the curve were flat to higher, while long end rates moved lower.
supportive enough for the Chicago Board of Education to complete its deal after it was previously postponed, though they had to pay a hefty premium on the bonds (the municipality priced $675 million general obligation (GO) bonds).
TAX-EXEMPT MARKET REVIEW Yields Fit for the Small Screen
Figure Yields Fell to Near-Record Lows Figure 2: Muni Yields Fell2:toMuni Near-Record Lows
Munis began the month with light supply, while demand remained robust. The environment was
10 0 Change in Yield (bps)
During the month, muni bond yields plummeted to near-record lows in sympathy with falling Treasury yields (Figure 2). Munis exhibited stability due to solid supply/demand technicals and constructive underlying fundamentals, aside from well-publicized problems in some pockets (Puerto Rico, Chicago, Illinois) of the market.
As the month progressed, supply picked up as the environment improved. Demand remained strong, but did not display the consistent oversubscriptions or lowering of yields
Nonetheless, the absolute level of muni yields remained extremely low to close out the month. Still, steepness in the muni curve keeps opportunities alive in the space, in our view. As the market has pared back expectations for a March rate hike, 5-year muni bonds have performed well, prompting noteworthy steepening for the 5- to 30-year portion of the curve.
-10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 1 YR
2 YR
3 YR
5 YR
7 YR
10 YR
20 YR
30 YR
YTD Change in Treasury Yields YTD Change in AAA GO Yields Source: Thomson Reuters, US Department of the Treasury, as of February 29, 2016.
2
FEBRUARY 2016 MARKET COMMENTARY
Looking closer at credit trends, fundamentals overall remain strong. However, oil-producing states saw more troubled times in terms of ratings. On February 25, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Louisiana’s GO bonds by one notch to Aa3. North Dakota was downgraded to AA+ from AAA by Standard & Poor’s on February 18.
GOVERNMENT CREDIT MARKET REVIEW Not Quite a Hollywood Ending Following the same theme of other risk assets in February, investment grade corporate bonds had a rough start, but picked up positive steam toward the end of the month. After widening over 20bps through midmonth, the Barclays U.S. Intermediate Corporate Index rebounded in the latter half of February and ended 3bps wider. In general, credit spreads remain wide and have reached recessionary levels due to many of the same swath of risks that markets have seen for some time now. U.S. financial spreads widened 21bps during the month of February, with investors concerned about the pending EU referendum in Britain, the flattening yield curve and its effect on bank profitability, and loan exposure to the energy sector. In the first part of the month, volatile equity markets and lagging oil prices carried over to the investment grade corporate market, sending spreads
wider. High-quality retailers and utilities fared better during this period. By contrast, in the second half of the month, higher-beta sectors such as telecom, media and technology and banks performed better as the market backdrop brightened. Overall, the best-performing sectors for February were metals, midstream, restaurants, chemicals and cable/satellite. Oil field services, refining, life, property and casualty, and paper had the worst showing, Barclays data shows. By rating, crossover credits had the best performance, while BBB names did the worst, per Barclays. The most dramatic swing in the month occurred in the IG primary market. Supply started out at a desolate pace. Only just over $5 billion of supply was priced the first two weeks of the month, which included several days of absolutely no supply. As a trenchant display of the markets’ lack of appetite for riskier credits, year-to-date, highyield supply has decreased 57 percent versus the same period in 2015, and only 32 percent of high yield supply is split BB or lower (versus 58 percent in full-year 2015). However, IG supply
came back to life the last two weeks of the month, as $58 billion priced post President’s Day—including two AAA deals. New issues performed well, seeing reduced concessions and strong performance on the “break” to secondary market trading. Following AB InBev’s $46 billion deal in January, issuance continued to be driven by M&A rather than refinancing transactions. Despite the slow start, total IG supply for February was $113.6 billion, only slightly lower than the February 2015 total of $116 billion. Fundamental credit challenges remain, shown by weaker company earnings and high leverage levels. The weakness in fundamentals has led to ratings downgrades, often multi-notch and for multiple names across sectors. In just the first two months of 2016, the credit markets have seen more fallen angels than in any full calendar year since 2009, per Barclays. Given the underperformance of higher-beta sectors, the spread between BBB and single A corporates has surged to its highest level since mid2009 (Figure 3). In-depth analysis
Figure 3: BBB Credits Are Notably Cheap Relative Figure 3: BBB Credits Are Notably Cheap Relative to Single A’s to Single A’s 250 Option-Adjusted Spread (bps)
Specifically, the pickup in yield from extending to a 10-year bond from a 5-year bond resulted in a yield pick-up of 83bps as of February 29 for a threemonth high. Extending from 10 years to 15 years meant a yield pickup of 48bps, just shy of a three-month high.
200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
Mar-14 Mar-15
Spread Differential Between BBB and Single-A Corporate Credits Source: Barclays, as of February 29, 2016.
3
FEBRUARY 2016 MARKET COMMENTARY
of idiosyncratic risks remains paramount for investors seeking to take advantage of attractive valuations in investment grade.
BRECKINRIDGE STRATEGY Markets Roll *Up* the Fed Carpet
going forward. Nonetheless, market expectations continue to lag the Fed’s projections. Following the equity market rout early in February and ongoing geopolitical turmoil, markets have lowered the probability of a March rate hike to about 10 percent.
40 percent to 45 percent and reduced its government security allocation from 30 percent to 25 percent. This is not a significant move given prior positioning. The change was opportunistic and based on attractive relative valuation of high grade bonds. We remain underweight to BBB names, but we are actively monitoring this position, and we maintain agility to make strategic BBB selections.
In its January meeting, the FOMC maintained its target Fed Funds rate of 25bps to 50bps. The FOMC acknowledged that recent economic data has been weak and recent financial and foreign developments may pose risks to the U.S. economy. Fed Chair Yellen has noted that the FOMC still expects the rate trajectory to be rising rather than falling
Breckinridge continues to expect a bear flattening of the U.S. yield curve and Fed normalization at a measured pace. We maintain relatively neutral duration targets in our Government Credit and Tax-Efficient strategies. In our Government Credit portfolios, the Investment Committee increased the corporate allocation target from
In our Tax-Efficient portfolios, we remain focused on high-quality bonds and we are comfortable with our overweight to local GO’s. We continue to increase exposure to strong credits in dedicated revenue sectors when possible.
FOOTNOTES:
5. Barclays U.S. Intermediate Corporate Index, Option
8. JP Morgan, as of February 26, 2016.
1. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as of March 1, 2016.
Adjusted Spread as of February 29, 2016.
9. JP Morgan, as of February 26, 2016.
2. Municipal Market Analytics, as of February 3, 2016.
6. Barclays U.S. Intermediate Corporate Index,
10. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, as of
3. The Bond Buyer, as of February 29, 2016.
Financial Institutions, Option Adjusted Spread, as of
4. Thomson Reuters The Municipal Market Monitor, as
February 29, 2016.
of February 29, 2016.
7. JP Morgan, as of February 17, 2016.
February 26, 2016. 11. Barclays, as of March 1, 2016. 12. Barclays, as of February 26, 2016.
DISCLAIMER: This material has been prepared for our clients and other interested parties and contains the opinions of Breckinridge Capital Advisors, Inc. Information and opinions are current as of the date(s) indicated and are subject to change without notice. Any specific securities or portfolio characteristics are for illustrative purposes and example only. They may not reflect historical, current or future investments in any client portfolio. Nothing in this document should be construed or relied upon as tax, legal or financial advice. All investments involve risk – including loss of principal. An investor should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions. Breckinridge can make no assurances, warranties or representations that any strategies described will meet their investment objectives or incur any profits.This document may include projections or other forward-looking statements, which are based on Breckinridge’s research, analysis, and assumptions. There can be no assurances that such projections will occur and the actual results may differ materially. Other events that were not taken into account in formulating such projections may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of any account. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This document includes information from companies not affiliated with Breckinridge (“third party content”). Breckinridge reasonably believes the third party content is reliable but cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
4
