Federal budget deficit trajectory
Federal budget deficit trajectory CBO budget outlook US$ billions
Percent
0
0
-200
-2
-400 -4
-600 -800
-6 As % of GDP, (R)
-1000
-8
Level, (L)
-1200 -10
-1400 CBO baseline projection
-1600
06
07
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
-12
Publicly-held debt as share of GDP CBO budget outlook Percent
80
CBO baseline projection
70 60 50
40 30
06
07
08
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Revenues and outlays as share of GDP CBO budget outlook Percent
26
CBO baseline projection
24 Outlays
22 20
Revenues
18 16 14
06
07
08
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Outlays for mandatory spending as share of GDP CBO budget outlook Percent
7.0
CBO baseline projection
6.5 Medicare and Medicaid
6.0 5.5 5.0
Social Security
4.5 4.0 3.5
06
07
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Federal outlays as a percent of GDP
Sources: Bloomberg, Businessweek.
Government spending* as a percentage of GDP
*CBO’s alternative fiscal scenario from the Long Term Budget Outlook- June 2010 (Revised August 2010)
Deficit comparison of four plans Cuts in spending and changes in tax collections House GOP proposal -4 trillion
Fiscal Commission recommendations
Deficit reduction
-4.1 trillion
Obama's new framework
-2.5 trillion
Obama's 2012 budget request 0
President Obama's new deficit reduction framework would require the government to borrow more over the next decade than under plans put forward by the House Republicans or the President's fiscal commission
5.5 trillion 5.3 trillion
Total deficits over the decade
7 trillion
9.5 trillion
-6
-4
-2
0
Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, The Washington Post.
2
4
6
8
10
12
*Cuts compared with a current-policy baseline that assumes Bush-era tax cuts are made permanent on income under $250k, but allowed to expire on income above that amount.
National health expenditures per capita 1990-2019
$16,000
Historical
Projected
$14,000
(2019) $13,387
$12,000
$10,000
(2009) $8,086
$8,000 $6,000 $4,000
(1990) $2,853
$2,000 $0
Sources: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group.
Per Capita Projected Per Capita
Statutory corporate income tax rates OECD average vs. United States Tax rate
45 United States
40
35
OECD average*
30
25
88
90
Sources: OECD, Milken Institute.
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
*OECD average includes Chile from 2000 onward
Unemployment rate Civilian unemployment rate Percent
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
81
86
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
91
96
01
06
11
Real gross domestic product United States Compound annual growth rate
10
5
0
-5
-10
81
83
85
87
89
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
Interest rates Fed funds rate vs. 10-year bond yield Percent
6 10-year Tnote yield
5 4 3 2 1 0
Federal funds rate
2001
2002
2003
Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
U.S. Federal Budget 12 Mo. SAAR FEDERAL % Nominal GDP MarU.S. -9.2% e 4
BUDGET 12 Mo. SAAR % NOMINAL GDP Mar -9.2% e
2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Sources: ISI Group.
Who is Most Broke? GDP $Tr
Gov Bonds as a % of GDP
China
4.9
29
India
1.2
40
Indonesia
0.5
17
Euro Area
12.5
72
UK
2.2
54
Japan
5.1
192
US
14.3
64
2009 Numbers
Sources: Bank of International Settlements, Triennial Survey (2007); International Monetary Fund.
Over the next several years, Social Security’s cost growth exceeds that of any other federal program.
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Percent
0
0
-200
-2
-400 -4
-600 -800
-6 As % of GDP, (R)
-1000
-8
Level, (L)
-1200 -10
-1400 CBO baseline projection
-1600
06
07
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
-12
Publicly-held debt as share of GDP CBO budget outlook Percent
80
CBO baseline projection
70 60 50
40 30
06
07
08
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Revenues and outlays as share of GDP CBO budget outlook Percent
26
CBO baseline projection
24 Outlays
22 20
Revenues
18 16 14
06
07
08
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Outlays for mandatory spending as share of GDP CBO budget outlook Percent
7.0
CBO baseline projection
6.5 Medicare and Medicaid
6.0 5.5 5.0
Social Security
4.5 4.0 3.5
06
07
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Federal outlays as a percent of GDP
Sources: Bloomberg, Businessweek.
Government spending* as a percentage of GDP
*CBO’s alternative fiscal scenario from the Long Term Budget Outlook- June 2010 (Revised August 2010)
Deficit comparison of four plans Cuts in spending and changes in tax collections House GOP proposal -4 trillion
Fiscal Commission recommendations
Deficit reduction
-4.1 trillion
Obama's new framework
-2.5 trillion
Obama's 2012 budget request 0
President Obama's new deficit reduction framework would require the government to borrow more over the next decade than under plans put forward by the House Republicans or the President's fiscal commission
5.5 trillion 5.3 trillion
Total deficits over the decade
7 trillion
9.5 trillion
-6
-4
-2
0
Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, The Washington Post.
2
4
6
8
10
12
*Cuts compared with a current-policy baseline that assumes Bush-era tax cuts are made permanent on income under $250k, but allowed to expire on income above that amount.
National health expenditures per capita 1990-2019
$16,000
Historical
Projected
$14,000
(2019) $13,387
$12,000
$10,000
(2009) $8,086
$8,000 $6,000 $4,000
(1990) $2,853
$2,000 $0
Sources: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group.
Per Capita Projected Per Capita
Statutory corporate income tax rates OECD average vs. United States Tax rate
45 United States
40
35
OECD average*
30
25
88
90
Sources: OECD, Milken Institute.
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
*OECD average includes Chile from 2000 onward
Unemployment rate Civilian unemployment rate Percent
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
81
86
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
91
96
01
06
11
Real gross domestic product United States Compound annual growth rate
10
5
0
-5
-10
81
83
85
87
89
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
Interest rates Fed funds rate vs. 10-year bond yield Percent
6 10-year Tnote yield
5 4 3 2 1 0
Federal funds rate
2001
2002
2003
Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
U.S. Federal Budget 12 Mo. SAAR FEDERAL % Nominal GDP MarU.S. -9.2% e 4
BUDGET 12 Mo. SAAR % NOMINAL GDP Mar -9.2% e
2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Sources: ISI Group.
Who is Most Broke? GDP $Tr
Gov Bonds as a % of GDP
China
4.9
29
India
1.2
40
Indonesia
0.5
17
Euro Area
12.5
72
UK
2.2
54
Japan
5.1
192
US
14.3
64
2009 Numbers
Sources: Bank of International Settlements, Triennial Survey (2007); International Monetary Fund.
Over the next several years, Social Security’s cost growth exceeds that of any other federal program.
Source: Congressional Budget Office
