FINAL REPORT Review of Dublin Region Annual
FINAL REPORT
Review of Dublin Region Annual Progress Report 2009
Report to: THE IRISH WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION
15th February 2010, SLR Ref: 501.0181.00001.002
IWMA i Review of Dublin Region Annual Progress Report 2009
SLR Consulting Ireland
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IWMA ii Review of Dublin Region Annual Progress Report 2009
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CONTENTS 1.0
Background
1
2.0
Household Waste
1
2.1
Household Waste Arisings
1
2.2
Household Waste Recycling
2
2.3
Residual Household Waste
3
3.0
4.0
Commercial Waste
4
3.1
Commercial Waste Arisings
4
3.2
Commercial Waste Recycling
4
3.3
Residual Commercial Waste
4
Waste Growth Projections
5
4.1
Waste Management Plan Projections
5
4.2
Annual progress report Projections
7
5.0
Waste Available for the Poolbeg Incinerator
12
6.0
Conclusions
13
FIGURES Figure 1: Projected and Actual Growth in Household Waste Arisings 2004 to 2008 Figure 2: Projected and Actual Growth in Commercial Waste Arisings 2004 to 2008 Figure 3: Projected and Actual Growth in Household Waste Arisings 2004 to 2020 Figure 4: Projected and Actual Growth in Commercial Waste Arisings 2004 to 2020 Figure 5: Net Migration in Ireland 1987 to 2009 TABLES Table 1: Improved Household Waste Recycling Performance 2007 to 2008 Table 2: Dublin Waste Plan 2005-2010, Predictions of Municipal Waste Growth Table 3: Annual Progress Report 2009, Predictions of Municipal Waste Growth Table 4: Comparison of Projected Growth Rates for the period 2012 to 2020 as presented in Regional Waste Management Plans in Ireland Table 5: Residual Waste Controlled by the Dublin Authorities and Available to the Poolbeg Incinerator based on 2009 Annual Progress Report Table 6: Total Residual Waste from Dublin Region Potentially Available to the Poolbeg Incinerator based on 2009 Annual Progress Report
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Background
In October 2009, the Irish Waste Management Association (IWMA) commissioned SLR Consulting Ireland (SLR) to independently assess the need for thermal treatment of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in the Dublin Region over a 25 year period commencing in 2012. The findings of SLR’s assessment were published in a report1 dated 9th November 2009. SLR also produced a supplementary report2 dated 13th January 2010 addressing the sensitivity of the waste growth projections put forward by SLR relative to other waste growth scenarios. In mid-January 2010, Dublin City Council published the 2009 Annual Progress Report of the Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region 2005-2010. The data contained in the report relates to waste arisings for the year 2008 and was compiled by RPS Consulting Engineers (RPS) on behalf of the Dublin Local Authorities. The IWMA has asked SLR to conduct a review of the 2009 Annual Progress Report with a view to further determining the need for thermal treatment in the Dublin Region. The 2009 Progress Report is well presented and very informative and shows that significant progress has been made in meeting and often exceeding targets that have been set for the Dublin Region. Major progress has been observed in household waste recycling, while commercial waste recycling received a noticeable set-back in 2008, due to reasons that are discussed later in this report. 2.0
Household Waste
2.1
Household Waste Arisings
Household waste arisings generated in the Dublin Region grew by just less than 1% from 2007 to a total of 474,767 tonnes in 2008. This result is surprising in the context of the National trend whereby household waste fell by 5% in Ireland in 2008. The EPA has indicated3 that the 2008 household data includes Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) collected at civic amenity sites and retail premises and perhaps this has influenced the returns for Dublin to some degree. The average annual growth rate in household waste arisings in the Dublin Region between 2003 and 2008 was 0.65% per annum. The population of the Dublin Region4 grew by 5.7% from 2002 to 2006, equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 1.4% per annum. This suggests that the percentage growth in household waste in the Dublin Region in recent years has been less than half of the population growth.
1
Dublin Region Thermal Treatment Needs Assessment – SLR – 9th November 2009. (www.slrconsulting.com ) Dublin Region Thermal Treatment Needs Assessment using ESRI/EPA ISus waste growth data – SLR – 13th January 2010. (www.slrconsulting.com ) 3 EPA National Waste Report 2008. 4 See Executive Summary of Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region - Annual Progress Report 2008 Key Facts - page iv. 2
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Household Waste Recycling
In 2008, the Dublin Region experienced major progress towards achieving the 2013 household waste recycling target of 60%5. The recycling rate for household waste jumped from 28% in 2007 to 35% in 2008. This improved recycling performance was observed in a broad range of waste collection streams as shown in Table 1 below: Table 1: Improved Household Waste Recycling Performance 2007 to 2008 Collection System
2007
2008
Increase
% Increase
(tonnes)
(tonnes)
(tonnes)
Green Bin Collections
69,172
82,687
13,515
19.5
Bring Banks
27,486
31,307
3,821
13.9
Recycling Centres, Bulky &
31,040
31,981
941
3.0
4,617
20,562
15,945
445.0
132,315
166,537
34,222
25.9
Greenwaste Collections Brown Bin Collections Total
While much of the credit for this increased recycling performance must go to the local authorities in the Region, particularly in relation to the brown bin roll-out, the increased private sector involvement in the household waste market in Dublin has also contributed to the improved recycling performance. Private companies, such as Panda and Greenstar, introduced fortnightly collections of green bins, at a time when the local authority green bin collection6 was conducted monthly throughout the Region. The private sector companies also accepted a wider range of materials for recycling, including plastics and glass. In response to the private sector initiatives, the local authority green bin collection service was increased to fortnightly and plastics were accepted in all green bins throughout the Region. The overall effect of the increased collection frequency and the acceptance of a broader range of materials resulted in a 19.5% increase in recycling volumes via the green bin collection system. While the increase in tonnages collected through bring banks is also commendable, the most significant factor in the increased recycling rates relates to the brown bin roll-out by Dublin City Council and Fingal County Council, alongside minor roll-out of private sector brown bins. The Annual Progress Report assumes that by the end of 2008, 50% of households in Dublin City and Fingal County were served with a brown bin.7 It was estimated that these local authorities collected a total of 18,497 tonnes in 2008 through the brown bin system and this was supplemented by 2,065 tonnes collected by the private sector. In response to National Policy, as detailed in the National Strategy on Biodegradable Waste, published by the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government in April 5
2009 Annual progress Report - Figure 15.2 – page 32 Service provided by Oxigen under contract to the Dublin local authorities. 7 Note on Page 38 of 2009 Annual Progress Report 6
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2006, all households in Dublin City and suburbs can expect delivery of a brown bin in the next year or two. The total brown bin waste collected in the Dublin Region in 2008 represented 4.3% of the recorded waste arisings. The brown bin system has been fully rolled-out in Galway City and it was reported8 by RPS for the EPA that 21.7% of household waste was collected as a separate organic fraction in 2007. It is reasonable to expect that the Dublin Region can reach an equivalent level of source segregation of organics when the brown bin system is fully rolled-out in the next couple of years. This implies that the household waste recycling rate could increase to 52.4% when the service is fully rolled out. Higher participation rates by householders in use of green bin recycling collections and bring centres will be required to reach the 2013 recycling target of 60% and this can be achieved through public information and awareness campaigns. In addition, we consider it reasonable that the local authorities should aim to recover 60% of the litter and street sweepings collected in the Region. Much of this material is recoverable. In consideration of the above, we believe that the 60% household waste recycling target for Dublin is credible and can be achieved by the target date of 2013.
2.3
Residual Household Waste
Table 5.2 of the Annual Progress Report shows that 302,552 tonnes of household waste generated in the Dublin Region was sent for disposal in 2008. The Dublin local authorities collected 245,117 tonnes of black bin waste, the private sector collected 38,250 tonnes and an additional 19,185 tonnes was delivered for disposal. Including Litter and Street Sweepings (35,136 t), the Dublin Authorities collected 280,253 tonnes of residual waste in 2008. Assuming the scenarios suggested for 2013 in the Annual Progress Report, the residual (black bin) household waste in the Dublin Region will be 40%9 of 538,12310 tonnes, i.e. 215,249 tonnes. Assuming that the Dublin local authorities maintain their current market share of 88% of household waste, they can expect to collect 189,419 tonnes of black bin waste in 2013. If no effort is made to recycle litter and street sweepings, an additional 35,000 tonnes of this material can be expected to be generated, giving the Dublin authorities 225,000 tonnes of collected residual waste. This is c.100,000 tonnes short of their commitment to the Poolbeg Incinerator contract and must be a source of some concern to the authorities. It is likely that the private sector will increase their share of the Dublin household waste market between 2010 and 2013, so the deficit outlined above could be significantly worse than currently projected using the data and projections presented the 2009 Annual Progress Report. 8 Municipal Waste Characterisation Surveys 2008 (Section 3.3.1 - page 16) – March 2009 – RPS & CTC commissioned by the EPA. 9 Annual Progress Report - Figure 15.2 - recycling target of 60% 10 Annual Progress Report - Table 6.4 – This figure appears to represent a significant over-estimate as discussed later in this report.
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3.0
Commercial Waste
3.1
Commercial Waste Arisings
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Commercial waste arisings in the Dublin Region fell by 5% from 2007 to 2008 and this is consistent with the National picture as reported by the EPA in late 2009. The fall in commercial waste arisings from 2006 to 2008 was 10% and this is consistent with SLR’s survey of the waste industry in late 2009, which indicated that commercial waste quantities appear to have dropped by 15 to 20% as a result of the current recession.11
3.2
Commercial Waste Recycling
The recycling rate for commercial waste dropped from 49% in 2007 to 46% in 2008. This drop included reductions in the quantities of recycled cardboard, paper and metal. Wood and glass recycling increased significantly, each by about 300% during the 2007 to 2008 period. The fall in recycling of commercial waste in 2008 is not surprising as the international recycling markets were in turmoil during the second half of that year. Cardboard, paper, metal and plastics were hit particularly hard as their recycling relies heavily on international markets. It is clear from the data, that the waste industry shifted focus towards materials such as wood and glass that can be recycled within Ireland, thereby avoiding an even more catastrophic set back in commercial waste recycling rates. The importance of flexibility in waste management is clearly demonstrated by the market collapse of 2008. We understand that there has been strong recovery in international recycling markets in 2009, so significantly improved recycling results can be expected for that year. However, it should be noted that landfill gate fees became very competitive in 2009 and were reduced significantly from previous levels. This is expected to impact on recycling levels for that particular year, but recent and proposed increases in the landfill levy from €20 per tonne to €75 per tonne in 201212 will ensure that the availability of a cheap landfill alternative is not an option in the medium to long term.
3.3
Residual Commercial Waste
The 2009 Annual Progress Report states that 397,704 tonnes of commercial waste from the Dublin Region was landfilled. The Dublin Authorities market share in commercial waste collection is believed to be less than 5%13 of the total Dublin market. It therefore follows that the Dublin Authorities collected less than 20,000 tonnes of residual commercial waste in the Region in 2008, assuming that their recycling performance was consistent with private sector recycling performance. 11
Dublin Region Thermal Treatment Needs Assessment (page 9) – SLR – 9th November 2009. Landfill levy is €30 per tonne from 1/2/10. A Ministerial announcement in November 2009 suggests that the landfill levy will be raised to €50 per tonne in 2011 and €75 per tonne in 2012. 13 Dublin Region Thermal Treatment Needs Assessment (page 5) – SLR – 9th November 2009. 12
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Waste Growth Projections
The 2009 Annual Progress Report, in a departure from previous progress reports, includes municipal waste growth projections from 2009 to 2020 and these are addressed in the following sections.
4.1
Waste Management Plan Projections
The Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region 2005-2010 included the following projections14 of municipal waste growth in the Dublin Region from the base year of 2003 to 2020. Table 2: Dublin Waste Plan 2005-2010, Predictions of Municipal Waste Growth Year
Household 459,282
Commercial/ Industrial 659,755
Total Municipal & Industrial 1,119,037
2003 2004
475,696
676,958
1,152,653
2005
492,187
701,328
1,193,515
2006
508,832
726,576
1,235,408
2007
523,016
744,014
1,267,029
2008
537,199
758,150
1,295,349
2009
551,383
771,797
1,323,180
2010
565,567
787,232
1,352,799
2011
574,932
797,467
1,372,399
2012
584,298
807,834
1,392,131
2013
593,663
818,335
1,411,998
2014
603,028
828,974
1,432,002
2015
612,394
839,750
1,452,144
2016
621,723
855,706
1,477,429
2017
629,171
871,964
1,501,135
2018
636,618
888,531
1,525,150
2019
644,066
905,414
1,549,479
2020
651,513
922,616
1,574,130
Figures 1 and 2 below show comparisons between projected growth rates presented in the Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region (2005-2010) and actual growth rates in municipal waste arisings from 2004 to 2008, as reported in the Annual Progress Reports.
14
Table 16.3 of the Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region 2005 to 2010 SLR Consulting Ireland
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Figure 1: Projected and Actual Growth in Household Waste Arisings 2004 to 2008
4.0 3.5
% Growth
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Year Projected Household Growth %
Actual Household Growth %
Figure 2: Projected and Actual Growth in Commercial Waste Arisings 2004 to 2008
8.0 6.0
% Growth
4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Year Projected C&I Growth %
Actual C&I Growth %
It is clear from Figure 1 that the projections for household waste arisings were dramatically over-estimated during the 2004 to 2008 period. Figure 2 shows that the Commercial and Industrial (C&I) waste growth was erratic during the period in question and was clearly difficult to predict.
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Annual Progress Report Projections
Table 6.4 of the Annual Progress Report 2009 presents projections for municipal waste growth from 2009 to 2020, as reproduced in Table 3 below.
Table 3: Annual Progress Report 2009, Predictions of Municipal Waste Growth Year
Household
Commercial
Total Municipal
2008
474,767
738,193
1,212,960
2009
503,034
675,037
1,178,071
2010
511,586
659,652
1,171,238
2011
520,283
717,473
1,237,756
2012
529,128
744,737
1,273,865
2013
538,123
773,037
1,311,160
2014
547,271
802,412
1,349,683
2015
556,574
830,497
1,387,071
2016
566,036
859,564
1,425,600
2017
575,659
889,649
1,465,308
2018
585,445
920,787
1,506,232
2019
595,398
953,014
1,548,412
2020
605,519
981,605
1,587,124
It appears that the separate projections from 2005 (Waste Plan) and 2009 (Progress Report) give similar results for the volume of municipal waste generated in 2020. However, this hides the fact that waste arisings in 2008 were well below those projected in 2005 and updating the original projections to take account of this new data would result in municipal waste arisings in 2020 that are 100,000 t/a lower than those presented in both Table 2 and Table 3. Figures 3 and 4 below compare the projections presented in the Progress Report 2009 with projections presented in the 2005-2010 Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region and the actual growth rates experienced between 2004 and 2008 as reported in the Progress Reports.
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Household Waste Projections
The 2005 Waste Plan projections for household waste shown in blue in Figure 3 assumed that household waste growth would decline over time as waste prevention measures come into effect and education and awareness campaigns change peoples behaviour. The latest projections from the 2009 Progress Report show remarkable growth in 2009 of almost 6% and steady growth of 1.7% thereafter. These projected growth rates are significantly higher than the previous projections from the Waste Management Plan and more than twice as high as the average historic data shown in red on Figure 3. There is no justification for such an increase in future projections, when the existing projections were already found to be too high. The projected 2009 growth is clearly an error that distorts future projections. The progress report has used 1.7% household waste growth per annum from 2010 to 2020 as this is equivalent to CSO population projection M2F1. However, M2F1 is the highest of four population projection scenarios for the Dublin Region and assumes net immigration of 36,700 people per year. The other scenarios offer population growth projections of 0.72%, 0.64% and -0.45%. The other questionable assumption used in the household waste projections in the 2009 Annual Progress Report is that household waste growth will mirror population growth. This has not been the case in recent years as discussed in Section 2.1 above. Household waste volumes have grown at half the rate of population growth in Dublin in recent years and at 40% of the population growth rate in Ireland as a whole.
Figure 3: Projected and Actual Growth in Household Waste Arisings 2004 to 2020
6.0 5.0
% Growth
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year Actual Household Waste Growth %
Projected in Progress Report
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Commercial Waste Projections
The commercial waste growth projections are less predictable than the household waste arisings as can be seen from the existing data presented in Figure 4 below. The projections in the Annual Progress Report are higher from 2011 than the original projections in the Waste Plan. The justification for this is given with reference to ESRI data on the economy. However, it should be noted that the ESRI data from their ISus model expected 1.3%15 growth in municipal waste arisings in Ireland in 2008, when the actual figure was recorded by the EPA in late 2009 as -5.1%. Considering that the ESRI can be so far out with a projection made at the time of the event, their projections into the future must be viewed with caution. The justification for increasing projected growth rates beyond 2011 is clearly open to question.
Figure 4: Projected and Actual Growth in Commercial Waste Arisings 2004 to 2020
10.0 8.0 6.0
% Growth
4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year Actual Commercial Waste Growth %
4.2.3
Projected in Progress Report
Projected in Waste Plan
Comparison with Other Waste Projections used by RPS
In addition to their work for the Dublin Local Authorities, RPS has prepared a large number of regional waste management plans in Ireland, including Northern Ireland. Table 4 compares the growth rates used by RPS in the 2009 Dublin Progress Report against other projections that have been used in other regional waste management plans, where RPS has written the Plan and/or has been engaged as lead waste management consultant to the local authorities that prepared the plans.16
15
The 1.3% resulted from a downward revision of the original projection of 3.8% growth in 2008. In the case of Arc21, RPS did not write the Plan, but is currently engaged as Client’s Representative in implementing the plan. In all other cases referred to in Table 4, it is our understanding that RPS wrote the plans.
16
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The years 2012 to 2020 have been chosen for this exercise, due to the fact that the Poolbeg Incinerator is due to be operational by early 2013 and the forecasts in the waste plans generally end in 2020. The waste plans did not predict the current recession and the 2009 Annual Progress Report assumes that the recession will be over by 2012, so in all cases the period 2012 to 2020 is expected to reflect a period of economic growth.
Table 4: Comparison of Projected Growth Rates for the period 2012 to 2020 as presented in Regional Waste Management Plans in Ireland Regional Waste Plan
Household
Commercial
Total Municipal
2009 Dublin Annual Progress Report
1.7%
3.0% to 3.8%
2.5% to 2.9%
Dublin Region Plan 2005-2010
1.2% to 1.6%
1.3% to 1.9%
1.4% to 1.8%
North East Region Plan 2005–2010
1.0% to 1.5%
1.3% to 1.9%
1.2% to 1.4%
Midlands Region Plan 2005–2010
1.9%
2.9% to 3.3%
2.3% to 2.4%
Connaught Region Plan 2006–2011
2.5% to 2.7%
1.3% to 1.9%
2.0% to 2.3%
Limerick/Clare/Kerry Region Plan 2006–2011
2.0% to 2.9%
17
Not Available
Donegal Waste Plan 2006-2011
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
Arc21 Waste Management Plan (Northern Ireland)18
1.0% to 1.6%
1.2%
1.0% to 1.5%
South West (SWaMP) Plan
Not Available
1.0%
0.5% to 1.0% (target)
Not Available
1.0%
0.5% to 1.0% (target)
0.8%
(Northern Ireland) North West Waste Management Plan (Northern Ireland)
It is clear from Table 4 that the municipal waste growth projections used in the 2009 Annual Progress Report are high, compared to similar projections used elsewhere by RPS. This is particularly apparent in the commercial waste projections, where the average annual projected growth for the Dublin Region (3.0% to 3.8%) is more than twice as high as the average growth rates (1.5%) forecast for the other eight regions included in Table 4. The original forecasts from the Dublin Region Waste Management Plan 2005-2010, as detailed in Table 2 above, are much more consistent with the projections included in the other eight regions. It is difficult to understand the rationale for now using the increased growth rates. Reference is made to ESRI forecasts of GDP growth and the authors of the 17
Projections available for 2012 to 2013 only The Arc21 projections were sourced from the Northern Ireland Waste Management Strategy and NI BPEO Guidance Document 2005 and are used by RPS as Client’s Representative for the Region. 18
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2009 Progress Report have assumed that commercial waste growth will mirror GDP growth. However, this is inconsistent with other waste management plans written by RPS, where the authors have recognised the implications of waste prevention measures in reducing commercial waste growth rates. The household waste growth projections presented in the 2009 Annual Progress Report are consistent with the average household waste growth projections from the other regions referred to in Table 4. However, annual average household waste growth in the Dublin Region between 2003 and 2008 was 0.65% and annual average household waste growth in the Republic of Ireland between 2003 and 2007 was 0.8%, before falling by 5% in 2008. The period 2003 to 2007 coincided with high levels of economic growth and a peak in immigration as shown in Figure 5 below.19
Figure 5: Net Migration in Ireland 1987 to 2009
Immigration (Number of People)
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000 2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
Year
Given the low level of growth in household waste arisings in Ireland during a period of strong economic growth and high levels of immigration, it appears that all the estimates of household waste growth, shown in Table 4 above, are on the high side. It is difficult to foresee a scenario whereby household waste growth will far exceed the levels of 0.65% observed in the Dublin Region during the Celtic Tiger boom years of 2003 to 2007.
19
Source: CSO. 2007 to 2009 data is preliminary. SLR Consulting Ireland
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Waste Available for the Poolbeg Incinerator
In SLR’s report20 to the IWMA in November 2009, it was established that the Dublin Authorities currently control 88% of the household waste collection market in the Dublin Region and less than 5% of the commercial waste collection market in the Region. It was also established in that report that 12% of the household waste market and 78% of the commercial waste market in Dublin is currently in the ownership of private sector companies that do not intend to send any waste to the Poolbeg Incinerator. These companies have alternative plans to use or develop competing facilities that include a range of technologies such as MBT, gasification and incineration. Table 5 below uses the data and projections from the 2009 Annual Progress Report to quantify the waste that will be available to the Dublin Authorities for the Poolbeg facility from 2013 to 2020. As discussed above, SLR does not accept the validity of the waste projections presented in the 2009 Annual Progress Report, but they are used in Table 5 to demonstrate that even in an unrealistically optimistic scenario, the Dublin local authorities are expected to fall well short of their commitment to supply 320,000 tonnes per annum to the Poolbeg Incinerator.
Table 5: Residual Waste Controlled by the Dublin Authorities and Available to the Poolbeg Incinerator based on 2009 Annual Progress Report projections. 21
22
23
Year
Household Waste Projections
Local Authority Controlled Residual Household Waste
Residual Litter & Street Sweepings
Commercial Waste Projections
Local Authority Controlled Residual Commercial Waste
Total Residual Municipal Waste Controlled by Dublin Local Authorities
2008
474,767
245,117
35,136
738,193
19,885
300,138
2013
538,123
189,419
14,054
773,037
14,301
217,775
2014
547,271
192,639
14,054
802,412
14,845
221,538
2015
556,574
195,914
14,054
830,497
15,364
225,332
2016
566,036
199,245
14,054
859,564
15,902
229,201
2017
575,659
202,632
14,054
889,649
16,459
233,144
2018
585,445
206,077
14,054
920,787
17,035
237,165
2019
595,398
209,580
14,054
953,014
17,631
241,265
2020
605,519
213,143
14,054
981,605
18,160
245,356
20
Dublin Region Thermal Treatment Needs Assessment – SLR – 9th November 2009. Based on achieving the 60% recycling target and maintaining 88% share of the household waste collection market. 22 Based on 60% recycling by 2013 23 Based on 5% of the market and 37% incineration (as proposed in the Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region 2005-2010). Even in the event that only 50% recycling of commercial waste is achieved, this figure would only increase by 5,000 t/a in 2013 and 6,380 t/a in 2020. 21
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In addition to local authority controlled waste, the Poolbeg Incinerator will source commercial waste from private waste collection companies that are currently undecided on their future use of the Poolbeg Incinerator. These companies represent an estimated 17%24 of the commercial waste market in the Dublin Region. Using the same assumptions detailed in Table 5 above, Table 6 estimates the quantity of private sector residual waste that may become available to the Poolbeg Incinerator.
Table 6: Total Residual Waste from Dublin Region Potentially Available to the Poolbeg Incinerator based on 2009 Annual Progress Report projections. Year
Total Residual Municipal Waste Controlled by Dublin Local Authorities
2008
25
Potentially Available Private Sector Residual Commercial Waste Sourced in Dublin Region
Total Residual Municipal Waste from Dublin Region Potentially Available to the Poolbeg Incinerator
300,138
67,610
367,748
2013
217,775
48,624
266,399
2014
221,538
50,472
272,010
2015
225,332
52,238
277,571
2016
229,201
54,067
283,267
2017
233,144
55,959
289,103
2018
237,165
57,918
295,083
2019
241,265
59,945
301,209
2020
245,356
61,743
307,099
The data presented in Table 6 shows that, even using waste projections that are considered overly optimistic by SLR, as discussed above, the appropriate size for an incinerator designed to serve the Dublin Region remains in or around 300,000 t/a.
6.0
Conclusions
The main findings of SLR’s review of the 2009 Annual Progress Report of the Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region 2005-2010 are as follows:
24
Result of questionnaire described in SLR’s report of 9th November 2009. As with Table 4, residual commercial waste is 37%. However, if 50% was used this would add another 17,084 t/a in 2013 and 21,693 t/a in 2020. 25
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•
Household waste growth in Dublin between 2003 and 2008 has averaged 0.65% per annum whereas population growth from 2002 to 2006 averaged 1.4% per annum and this suggests that household waste arisings grow at about half the rate of population growth. This suggests that household waste generation per capita in Dublin is falling.
•
The household waste recycling rate increased from 28% in 2007 to 35% in 2008 due to a number of factors including: o
the partial roll-out of the household brown bin,
o
increased frequency of collection of the household green bin (monthly to fortnightly),
o
expanded list of materials collected in the green bin (plastic and glass in places), and
o
increased volumes of recyclables collected through the bring bank network.
•
Based on evidence from Galway City, the full roll-out of the household brown bin could increase the household waste recycling rate in the Dublin Region to 52.4%.
•
SLR believes that the 60% target for recycling household waste in the Dublin Region is ambitious, but achievable by the target date of 2013.
•
The Dublin local authorities collected 280,253 tonne of residual household waste, litter and street sweepings in 2008. This figure is expected to drop to 225,000 tonnes in 2013, when the Poolbeg Incinerator is due to commence operation and may well be lower if the local authorities lose market share and/or commence recycling of litter and street sweepings.
•
Commercial waste arisings in the Dublin Region have fallen by 10% from 2006 to 2008 and this is consistent with SLR’s recent survey of the waste industry in the final quarter of 2009 that suggested a fall of 15 to 20% in commercial waste arisings in the Region as a result of the current recession.
•
Commercial waste recycling rates decreased from 49% in 2007 to 46% in 2008. The main cause of this reduction in recycling rates is thought to relate to the collapse of international markets for recycled material such as paper, cardboard, metal and plastic in the second half of 2008. A secondary factor is believed to be the reduction in landfill gate fees experienced from mid 2008 to date. The international markets recovered to some extent in 2009 and the landfill levy has increased recently and will continue to increase dramatically over the next two years to a proposed level of €75 per tonne by 2012. These developments should ensure that the reduced recycling rate for commercial waste was a temporary set back and recycling rates of 60% or higher should be achievable by 2013.
•
Residual commercial waste from the Dublin Region amounted to 397,704 tonnes in 2008. It is estimated that the Dublin local authorities control less than 5% of that market, so it is assumed that the local authorities collected less than 20,000 tonnes of residual commercial waste in 2008. SLR Consulting Ireland
IWMA 15 Review of Dublin Region Annual Progress Report 2009
•
SLR Ref: 501.0181.00001.002 th 15 February 2010
The 2009 Annual Progress Report contains predictions of household and commercial waste growth from 2009 to 2020. The original projections from the Waste Management Plan 2005-2010 grossly over-estimated household waste growth from 2004 to 2008. This over-estimate of growth ranged from 250% to 1,000%. SLR suggests that the latest projections for household waste growth, as presented in the 2009 Annual Progress Report, are also over-estimated as the authors of that report have made the following assumptions that skew the data towards an over-estimation: o
The projections use the highest of four population growth scenarios put forward by the CSO and this assumes high levels of net immigration,
o
The projections assume that household waste growth will mirror population growth when the recent evidence in Dublin and Ireland shows that household waste growth has been 40% to 50% of population growth,
o
Household waste growth from 2008 to 2009 is projected at 6% and this appears to be an error that skews all future projections. There is no justification for an increase that is 10 times higher than the average growth rates for the previous 5 years (0.65% per annum).
•
Commercial waste growth projections are more difficult to predict than household waste projections and growth rates have been erratic in recent years. However, the 2009 Annual Progress Report predicts higher growth rates from 2011 to 2020 than was originally projected in the Dublin Waste Management Plan (2005) and SLR fails to see any justification for such increased projections. A comparison of waste growth projections presented by RPS in regional waste plans elsewhere in Ireland (North and South) shows that the projections for commercial waste growth in the Dublin Region are twice as high as the average of similar projections in eight other regions.
•
Despite SLR’s reservations in relation to waste growth projections put forward in the 2009 Annual progress Report, these projections confirm that if the Dublin Authorities can maintain their current market share, they will have between 218,000 and 245,000 t/a of residual waste from 2013 to 2020 to deliver to the Poolbeg Incinerator. This represents a shortfall of 75,000 to 102,000 t/a on their put or pay contract commitment of 320,000 t/a.
•
Also using the projections provided in the 2009 Annual Progress Report and adding potentially available private sector residual waste, we estimate that the total requirement for an incinerator in Dublin is in or around 300,000 t/a. This is consistent with SLR’s previous reports on this matter.
SLR Consulting Ireland
Review of Dublin Region Annual Progress Report 2009
Report to: THE IRISH WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION
15th February 2010, SLR Ref: 501.0181.00001.002
IWMA i Review of Dublin Region Annual Progress Report 2009
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IWMA ii Review of Dublin Region Annual Progress Report 2009
SLR Ref: 501.0181.00001.002 th 15 February 2010
CONTENTS 1.0
Background
1
2.0
Household Waste
1
2.1
Household Waste Arisings
1
2.2
Household Waste Recycling
2
2.3
Residual Household Waste
3
3.0
4.0
Commercial Waste
4
3.1
Commercial Waste Arisings
4
3.2
Commercial Waste Recycling
4
3.3
Residual Commercial Waste
4
Waste Growth Projections
5
4.1
Waste Management Plan Projections
5
4.2
Annual progress report Projections
7
5.0
Waste Available for the Poolbeg Incinerator
12
6.0
Conclusions
13
FIGURES Figure 1: Projected and Actual Growth in Household Waste Arisings 2004 to 2008 Figure 2: Projected and Actual Growth in Commercial Waste Arisings 2004 to 2008 Figure 3: Projected and Actual Growth in Household Waste Arisings 2004 to 2020 Figure 4: Projected and Actual Growth in Commercial Waste Arisings 2004 to 2020 Figure 5: Net Migration in Ireland 1987 to 2009 TABLES Table 1: Improved Household Waste Recycling Performance 2007 to 2008 Table 2: Dublin Waste Plan 2005-2010, Predictions of Municipal Waste Growth Table 3: Annual Progress Report 2009, Predictions of Municipal Waste Growth Table 4: Comparison of Projected Growth Rates for the period 2012 to 2020 as presented in Regional Waste Management Plans in Ireland Table 5: Residual Waste Controlled by the Dublin Authorities and Available to the Poolbeg Incinerator based on 2009 Annual Progress Report Table 6: Total Residual Waste from Dublin Region Potentially Available to the Poolbeg Incinerator based on 2009 Annual Progress Report
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Background
In October 2009, the Irish Waste Management Association (IWMA) commissioned SLR Consulting Ireland (SLR) to independently assess the need for thermal treatment of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in the Dublin Region over a 25 year period commencing in 2012. The findings of SLR’s assessment were published in a report1 dated 9th November 2009. SLR also produced a supplementary report2 dated 13th January 2010 addressing the sensitivity of the waste growth projections put forward by SLR relative to other waste growth scenarios. In mid-January 2010, Dublin City Council published the 2009 Annual Progress Report of the Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region 2005-2010. The data contained in the report relates to waste arisings for the year 2008 and was compiled by RPS Consulting Engineers (RPS) on behalf of the Dublin Local Authorities. The IWMA has asked SLR to conduct a review of the 2009 Annual Progress Report with a view to further determining the need for thermal treatment in the Dublin Region. The 2009 Progress Report is well presented and very informative and shows that significant progress has been made in meeting and often exceeding targets that have been set for the Dublin Region. Major progress has been observed in household waste recycling, while commercial waste recycling received a noticeable set-back in 2008, due to reasons that are discussed later in this report. 2.0
Household Waste
2.1
Household Waste Arisings
Household waste arisings generated in the Dublin Region grew by just less than 1% from 2007 to a total of 474,767 tonnes in 2008. This result is surprising in the context of the National trend whereby household waste fell by 5% in Ireland in 2008. The EPA has indicated3 that the 2008 household data includes Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) collected at civic amenity sites and retail premises and perhaps this has influenced the returns for Dublin to some degree. The average annual growth rate in household waste arisings in the Dublin Region between 2003 and 2008 was 0.65% per annum. The population of the Dublin Region4 grew by 5.7% from 2002 to 2006, equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 1.4% per annum. This suggests that the percentage growth in household waste in the Dublin Region in recent years has been less than half of the population growth.
1
Dublin Region Thermal Treatment Needs Assessment – SLR – 9th November 2009. (www.slrconsulting.com ) Dublin Region Thermal Treatment Needs Assessment using ESRI/EPA ISus waste growth data – SLR – 13th January 2010. (www.slrconsulting.com ) 3 EPA National Waste Report 2008. 4 See Executive Summary of Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region - Annual Progress Report 2008 Key Facts - page iv. 2
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Household Waste Recycling
In 2008, the Dublin Region experienced major progress towards achieving the 2013 household waste recycling target of 60%5. The recycling rate for household waste jumped from 28% in 2007 to 35% in 2008. This improved recycling performance was observed in a broad range of waste collection streams as shown in Table 1 below: Table 1: Improved Household Waste Recycling Performance 2007 to 2008 Collection System
2007
2008
Increase
% Increase
(tonnes)
(tonnes)
(tonnes)
Green Bin Collections
69,172
82,687
13,515
19.5
Bring Banks
27,486
31,307
3,821
13.9
Recycling Centres, Bulky &
31,040
31,981
941
3.0
4,617
20,562
15,945
445.0
132,315
166,537
34,222
25.9
Greenwaste Collections Brown Bin Collections Total
While much of the credit for this increased recycling performance must go to the local authorities in the Region, particularly in relation to the brown bin roll-out, the increased private sector involvement in the household waste market in Dublin has also contributed to the improved recycling performance. Private companies, such as Panda and Greenstar, introduced fortnightly collections of green bins, at a time when the local authority green bin collection6 was conducted monthly throughout the Region. The private sector companies also accepted a wider range of materials for recycling, including plastics and glass. In response to the private sector initiatives, the local authority green bin collection service was increased to fortnightly and plastics were accepted in all green bins throughout the Region. The overall effect of the increased collection frequency and the acceptance of a broader range of materials resulted in a 19.5% increase in recycling volumes via the green bin collection system. While the increase in tonnages collected through bring banks is also commendable, the most significant factor in the increased recycling rates relates to the brown bin roll-out by Dublin City Council and Fingal County Council, alongside minor roll-out of private sector brown bins. The Annual Progress Report assumes that by the end of 2008, 50% of households in Dublin City and Fingal County were served with a brown bin.7 It was estimated that these local authorities collected a total of 18,497 tonnes in 2008 through the brown bin system and this was supplemented by 2,065 tonnes collected by the private sector. In response to National Policy, as detailed in the National Strategy on Biodegradable Waste, published by the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government in April 5
2009 Annual progress Report - Figure 15.2 – page 32 Service provided by Oxigen under contract to the Dublin local authorities. 7 Note on Page 38 of 2009 Annual Progress Report 6
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2006, all households in Dublin City and suburbs can expect delivery of a brown bin in the next year or two. The total brown bin waste collected in the Dublin Region in 2008 represented 4.3% of the recorded waste arisings. The brown bin system has been fully rolled-out in Galway City and it was reported8 by RPS for the EPA that 21.7% of household waste was collected as a separate organic fraction in 2007. It is reasonable to expect that the Dublin Region can reach an equivalent level of source segregation of organics when the brown bin system is fully rolled-out in the next couple of years. This implies that the household waste recycling rate could increase to 52.4% when the service is fully rolled out. Higher participation rates by householders in use of green bin recycling collections and bring centres will be required to reach the 2013 recycling target of 60% and this can be achieved through public information and awareness campaigns. In addition, we consider it reasonable that the local authorities should aim to recover 60% of the litter and street sweepings collected in the Region. Much of this material is recoverable. In consideration of the above, we believe that the 60% household waste recycling target for Dublin is credible and can be achieved by the target date of 2013.
2.3
Residual Household Waste
Table 5.2 of the Annual Progress Report shows that 302,552 tonnes of household waste generated in the Dublin Region was sent for disposal in 2008. The Dublin local authorities collected 245,117 tonnes of black bin waste, the private sector collected 38,250 tonnes and an additional 19,185 tonnes was delivered for disposal. Including Litter and Street Sweepings (35,136 t), the Dublin Authorities collected 280,253 tonnes of residual waste in 2008. Assuming the scenarios suggested for 2013 in the Annual Progress Report, the residual (black bin) household waste in the Dublin Region will be 40%9 of 538,12310 tonnes, i.e. 215,249 tonnes. Assuming that the Dublin local authorities maintain their current market share of 88% of household waste, they can expect to collect 189,419 tonnes of black bin waste in 2013. If no effort is made to recycle litter and street sweepings, an additional 35,000 tonnes of this material can be expected to be generated, giving the Dublin authorities 225,000 tonnes of collected residual waste. This is c.100,000 tonnes short of their commitment to the Poolbeg Incinerator contract and must be a source of some concern to the authorities. It is likely that the private sector will increase their share of the Dublin household waste market between 2010 and 2013, so the deficit outlined above could be significantly worse than currently projected using the data and projections presented the 2009 Annual Progress Report. 8 Municipal Waste Characterisation Surveys 2008 (Section 3.3.1 - page 16) – March 2009 – RPS & CTC commissioned by the EPA. 9 Annual Progress Report - Figure 15.2 - recycling target of 60% 10 Annual Progress Report - Table 6.4 – This figure appears to represent a significant over-estimate as discussed later in this report.
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3.0
Commercial Waste
3.1
Commercial Waste Arisings
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Commercial waste arisings in the Dublin Region fell by 5% from 2007 to 2008 and this is consistent with the National picture as reported by the EPA in late 2009. The fall in commercial waste arisings from 2006 to 2008 was 10% and this is consistent with SLR’s survey of the waste industry in late 2009, which indicated that commercial waste quantities appear to have dropped by 15 to 20% as a result of the current recession.11
3.2
Commercial Waste Recycling
The recycling rate for commercial waste dropped from 49% in 2007 to 46% in 2008. This drop included reductions in the quantities of recycled cardboard, paper and metal. Wood and glass recycling increased significantly, each by about 300% during the 2007 to 2008 period. The fall in recycling of commercial waste in 2008 is not surprising as the international recycling markets were in turmoil during the second half of that year. Cardboard, paper, metal and plastics were hit particularly hard as their recycling relies heavily on international markets. It is clear from the data, that the waste industry shifted focus towards materials such as wood and glass that can be recycled within Ireland, thereby avoiding an even more catastrophic set back in commercial waste recycling rates. The importance of flexibility in waste management is clearly demonstrated by the market collapse of 2008. We understand that there has been strong recovery in international recycling markets in 2009, so significantly improved recycling results can be expected for that year. However, it should be noted that landfill gate fees became very competitive in 2009 and were reduced significantly from previous levels. This is expected to impact on recycling levels for that particular year, but recent and proposed increases in the landfill levy from €20 per tonne to €75 per tonne in 201212 will ensure that the availability of a cheap landfill alternative is not an option in the medium to long term.
3.3
Residual Commercial Waste
The 2009 Annual Progress Report states that 397,704 tonnes of commercial waste from the Dublin Region was landfilled. The Dublin Authorities market share in commercial waste collection is believed to be less than 5%13 of the total Dublin market. It therefore follows that the Dublin Authorities collected less than 20,000 tonnes of residual commercial waste in the Region in 2008, assuming that their recycling performance was consistent with private sector recycling performance. 11
Dublin Region Thermal Treatment Needs Assessment (page 9) – SLR – 9th November 2009. Landfill levy is €30 per tonne from 1/2/10. A Ministerial announcement in November 2009 suggests that the landfill levy will be raised to €50 per tonne in 2011 and €75 per tonne in 2012. 13 Dublin Region Thermal Treatment Needs Assessment (page 5) – SLR – 9th November 2009. 12
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Waste Growth Projections
The 2009 Annual Progress Report, in a departure from previous progress reports, includes municipal waste growth projections from 2009 to 2020 and these are addressed in the following sections.
4.1
Waste Management Plan Projections
The Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region 2005-2010 included the following projections14 of municipal waste growth in the Dublin Region from the base year of 2003 to 2020. Table 2: Dublin Waste Plan 2005-2010, Predictions of Municipal Waste Growth Year
Household 459,282
Commercial/ Industrial 659,755
Total Municipal & Industrial 1,119,037
2003 2004
475,696
676,958
1,152,653
2005
492,187
701,328
1,193,515
2006
508,832
726,576
1,235,408
2007
523,016
744,014
1,267,029
2008
537,199
758,150
1,295,349
2009
551,383
771,797
1,323,180
2010
565,567
787,232
1,352,799
2011
574,932
797,467
1,372,399
2012
584,298
807,834
1,392,131
2013
593,663
818,335
1,411,998
2014
603,028
828,974
1,432,002
2015
612,394
839,750
1,452,144
2016
621,723
855,706
1,477,429
2017
629,171
871,964
1,501,135
2018
636,618
888,531
1,525,150
2019
644,066
905,414
1,549,479
2020
651,513
922,616
1,574,130
Figures 1 and 2 below show comparisons between projected growth rates presented in the Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region (2005-2010) and actual growth rates in municipal waste arisings from 2004 to 2008, as reported in the Annual Progress Reports.
14
Table 16.3 of the Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region 2005 to 2010 SLR Consulting Ireland
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Figure 1: Projected and Actual Growth in Household Waste Arisings 2004 to 2008
4.0 3.5
% Growth
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Year Projected Household Growth %
Actual Household Growth %
Figure 2: Projected and Actual Growth in Commercial Waste Arisings 2004 to 2008
8.0 6.0
% Growth
4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Year Projected C&I Growth %
Actual C&I Growth %
It is clear from Figure 1 that the projections for household waste arisings were dramatically over-estimated during the 2004 to 2008 period. Figure 2 shows that the Commercial and Industrial (C&I) waste growth was erratic during the period in question and was clearly difficult to predict.
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Annual Progress Report Projections
Table 6.4 of the Annual Progress Report 2009 presents projections for municipal waste growth from 2009 to 2020, as reproduced in Table 3 below.
Table 3: Annual Progress Report 2009, Predictions of Municipal Waste Growth Year
Household
Commercial
Total Municipal
2008
474,767
738,193
1,212,960
2009
503,034
675,037
1,178,071
2010
511,586
659,652
1,171,238
2011
520,283
717,473
1,237,756
2012
529,128
744,737
1,273,865
2013
538,123
773,037
1,311,160
2014
547,271
802,412
1,349,683
2015
556,574
830,497
1,387,071
2016
566,036
859,564
1,425,600
2017
575,659
889,649
1,465,308
2018
585,445
920,787
1,506,232
2019
595,398
953,014
1,548,412
2020
605,519
981,605
1,587,124
It appears that the separate projections from 2005 (Waste Plan) and 2009 (Progress Report) give similar results for the volume of municipal waste generated in 2020. However, this hides the fact that waste arisings in 2008 were well below those projected in 2005 and updating the original projections to take account of this new data would result in municipal waste arisings in 2020 that are 100,000 t/a lower than those presented in both Table 2 and Table 3. Figures 3 and 4 below compare the projections presented in the Progress Report 2009 with projections presented in the 2005-2010 Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region and the actual growth rates experienced between 2004 and 2008 as reported in the Progress Reports.
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Household Waste Projections
The 2005 Waste Plan projections for household waste shown in blue in Figure 3 assumed that household waste growth would decline over time as waste prevention measures come into effect and education and awareness campaigns change peoples behaviour. The latest projections from the 2009 Progress Report show remarkable growth in 2009 of almost 6% and steady growth of 1.7% thereafter. These projected growth rates are significantly higher than the previous projections from the Waste Management Plan and more than twice as high as the average historic data shown in red on Figure 3. There is no justification for such an increase in future projections, when the existing projections were already found to be too high. The projected 2009 growth is clearly an error that distorts future projections. The progress report has used 1.7% household waste growth per annum from 2010 to 2020 as this is equivalent to CSO population projection M2F1. However, M2F1 is the highest of four population projection scenarios for the Dublin Region and assumes net immigration of 36,700 people per year. The other scenarios offer population growth projections of 0.72%, 0.64% and -0.45%. The other questionable assumption used in the household waste projections in the 2009 Annual Progress Report is that household waste growth will mirror population growth. This has not been the case in recent years as discussed in Section 2.1 above. Household waste volumes have grown at half the rate of population growth in Dublin in recent years and at 40% of the population growth rate in Ireland as a whole.
Figure 3: Projected and Actual Growth in Household Waste Arisings 2004 to 2020
6.0 5.0
% Growth
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year Actual Household Waste Growth %
Projected in Progress Report
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Commercial Waste Projections
The commercial waste growth projections are less predictable than the household waste arisings as can be seen from the existing data presented in Figure 4 below. The projections in the Annual Progress Report are higher from 2011 than the original projections in the Waste Plan. The justification for this is given with reference to ESRI data on the economy. However, it should be noted that the ESRI data from their ISus model expected 1.3%15 growth in municipal waste arisings in Ireland in 2008, when the actual figure was recorded by the EPA in late 2009 as -5.1%. Considering that the ESRI can be so far out with a projection made at the time of the event, their projections into the future must be viewed with caution. The justification for increasing projected growth rates beyond 2011 is clearly open to question.
Figure 4: Projected and Actual Growth in Commercial Waste Arisings 2004 to 2020
10.0 8.0 6.0
% Growth
4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year Actual Commercial Waste Growth %
4.2.3
Projected in Progress Report
Projected in Waste Plan
Comparison with Other Waste Projections used by RPS
In addition to their work for the Dublin Local Authorities, RPS has prepared a large number of regional waste management plans in Ireland, including Northern Ireland. Table 4 compares the growth rates used by RPS in the 2009 Dublin Progress Report against other projections that have been used in other regional waste management plans, where RPS has written the Plan and/or has been engaged as lead waste management consultant to the local authorities that prepared the plans.16
15
The 1.3% resulted from a downward revision of the original projection of 3.8% growth in 2008. In the case of Arc21, RPS did not write the Plan, but is currently engaged as Client’s Representative in implementing the plan. In all other cases referred to in Table 4, it is our understanding that RPS wrote the plans.
16
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The years 2012 to 2020 have been chosen for this exercise, due to the fact that the Poolbeg Incinerator is due to be operational by early 2013 and the forecasts in the waste plans generally end in 2020. The waste plans did not predict the current recession and the 2009 Annual Progress Report assumes that the recession will be over by 2012, so in all cases the period 2012 to 2020 is expected to reflect a period of economic growth.
Table 4: Comparison of Projected Growth Rates for the period 2012 to 2020 as presented in Regional Waste Management Plans in Ireland Regional Waste Plan
Household
Commercial
Total Municipal
2009 Dublin Annual Progress Report
1.7%
3.0% to 3.8%
2.5% to 2.9%
Dublin Region Plan 2005-2010
1.2% to 1.6%
1.3% to 1.9%
1.4% to 1.8%
North East Region Plan 2005–2010
1.0% to 1.5%
1.3% to 1.9%
1.2% to 1.4%
Midlands Region Plan 2005–2010
1.9%
2.9% to 3.3%
2.3% to 2.4%
Connaught Region Plan 2006–2011
2.5% to 2.7%
1.3% to 1.9%
2.0% to 2.3%
Limerick/Clare/Kerry Region Plan 2006–2011
2.0% to 2.9%
17
Not Available
Donegal Waste Plan 2006-2011
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
Arc21 Waste Management Plan (Northern Ireland)18
1.0% to 1.6%
1.2%
1.0% to 1.5%
South West (SWaMP) Plan
Not Available
1.0%
0.5% to 1.0% (target)
Not Available
1.0%
0.5% to 1.0% (target)
0.8%
(Northern Ireland) North West Waste Management Plan (Northern Ireland)
It is clear from Table 4 that the municipal waste growth projections used in the 2009 Annual Progress Report are high, compared to similar projections used elsewhere by RPS. This is particularly apparent in the commercial waste projections, where the average annual projected growth for the Dublin Region (3.0% to 3.8%) is more than twice as high as the average growth rates (1.5%) forecast for the other eight regions included in Table 4. The original forecasts from the Dublin Region Waste Management Plan 2005-2010, as detailed in Table 2 above, are much more consistent with the projections included in the other eight regions. It is difficult to understand the rationale for now using the increased growth rates. Reference is made to ESRI forecasts of GDP growth and the authors of the 17
Projections available for 2012 to 2013 only The Arc21 projections were sourced from the Northern Ireland Waste Management Strategy and NI BPEO Guidance Document 2005 and are used by RPS as Client’s Representative for the Region. 18
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2009 Progress Report have assumed that commercial waste growth will mirror GDP growth. However, this is inconsistent with other waste management plans written by RPS, where the authors have recognised the implications of waste prevention measures in reducing commercial waste growth rates. The household waste growth projections presented in the 2009 Annual Progress Report are consistent with the average household waste growth projections from the other regions referred to in Table 4. However, annual average household waste growth in the Dublin Region between 2003 and 2008 was 0.65% and annual average household waste growth in the Republic of Ireland between 2003 and 2007 was 0.8%, before falling by 5% in 2008. The period 2003 to 2007 coincided with high levels of economic growth and a peak in immigration as shown in Figure 5 below.19
Figure 5: Net Migration in Ireland 1987 to 2009
Immigration (Number of People)
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000 2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
Year
Given the low level of growth in household waste arisings in Ireland during a period of strong economic growth and high levels of immigration, it appears that all the estimates of household waste growth, shown in Table 4 above, are on the high side. It is difficult to foresee a scenario whereby household waste growth will far exceed the levels of 0.65% observed in the Dublin Region during the Celtic Tiger boom years of 2003 to 2007.
19
Source: CSO. 2007 to 2009 data is preliminary. SLR Consulting Ireland
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SLR Ref: 501.0181.00001.002 th 15 February 2010
Waste Available for the Poolbeg Incinerator
In SLR’s report20 to the IWMA in November 2009, it was established that the Dublin Authorities currently control 88% of the household waste collection market in the Dublin Region and less than 5% of the commercial waste collection market in the Region. It was also established in that report that 12% of the household waste market and 78% of the commercial waste market in Dublin is currently in the ownership of private sector companies that do not intend to send any waste to the Poolbeg Incinerator. These companies have alternative plans to use or develop competing facilities that include a range of technologies such as MBT, gasification and incineration. Table 5 below uses the data and projections from the 2009 Annual Progress Report to quantify the waste that will be available to the Dublin Authorities for the Poolbeg facility from 2013 to 2020. As discussed above, SLR does not accept the validity of the waste projections presented in the 2009 Annual Progress Report, but they are used in Table 5 to demonstrate that even in an unrealistically optimistic scenario, the Dublin local authorities are expected to fall well short of their commitment to supply 320,000 tonnes per annum to the Poolbeg Incinerator.
Table 5: Residual Waste Controlled by the Dublin Authorities and Available to the Poolbeg Incinerator based on 2009 Annual Progress Report projections. 21
22
23
Year
Household Waste Projections
Local Authority Controlled Residual Household Waste
Residual Litter & Street Sweepings
Commercial Waste Projections
Local Authority Controlled Residual Commercial Waste
Total Residual Municipal Waste Controlled by Dublin Local Authorities
2008
474,767
245,117
35,136
738,193
19,885
300,138
2013
538,123
189,419
14,054
773,037
14,301
217,775
2014
547,271
192,639
14,054
802,412
14,845
221,538
2015
556,574
195,914
14,054
830,497
15,364
225,332
2016
566,036
199,245
14,054
859,564
15,902
229,201
2017
575,659
202,632
14,054
889,649
16,459
233,144
2018
585,445
206,077
14,054
920,787
17,035
237,165
2019
595,398
209,580
14,054
953,014
17,631
241,265
2020
605,519
213,143
14,054
981,605
18,160
245,356
20
Dublin Region Thermal Treatment Needs Assessment – SLR – 9th November 2009. Based on achieving the 60% recycling target and maintaining 88% share of the household waste collection market. 22 Based on 60% recycling by 2013 23 Based on 5% of the market and 37% incineration (as proposed in the Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region 2005-2010). Even in the event that only 50% recycling of commercial waste is achieved, this figure would only increase by 5,000 t/a in 2013 and 6,380 t/a in 2020. 21
SLR Consulting Ireland
IWMA 13 Review of Dublin Region Annual Progress Report 2009
SLR Ref: 501.0181.00001.002 th 15 February 2010
In addition to local authority controlled waste, the Poolbeg Incinerator will source commercial waste from private waste collection companies that are currently undecided on their future use of the Poolbeg Incinerator. These companies represent an estimated 17%24 of the commercial waste market in the Dublin Region. Using the same assumptions detailed in Table 5 above, Table 6 estimates the quantity of private sector residual waste that may become available to the Poolbeg Incinerator.
Table 6: Total Residual Waste from Dublin Region Potentially Available to the Poolbeg Incinerator based on 2009 Annual Progress Report projections. Year
Total Residual Municipal Waste Controlled by Dublin Local Authorities
2008
25
Potentially Available Private Sector Residual Commercial Waste Sourced in Dublin Region
Total Residual Municipal Waste from Dublin Region Potentially Available to the Poolbeg Incinerator
300,138
67,610
367,748
2013
217,775
48,624
266,399
2014
221,538
50,472
272,010
2015
225,332
52,238
277,571
2016
229,201
54,067
283,267
2017
233,144
55,959
289,103
2018
237,165
57,918
295,083
2019
241,265
59,945
301,209
2020
245,356
61,743
307,099
The data presented in Table 6 shows that, even using waste projections that are considered overly optimistic by SLR, as discussed above, the appropriate size for an incinerator designed to serve the Dublin Region remains in or around 300,000 t/a.
6.0
Conclusions
The main findings of SLR’s review of the 2009 Annual Progress Report of the Waste Management Plan for the Dublin Region 2005-2010 are as follows:
24
Result of questionnaire described in SLR’s report of 9th November 2009. As with Table 4, residual commercial waste is 37%. However, if 50% was used this would add another 17,084 t/a in 2013 and 21,693 t/a in 2020. 25
SLR Consulting Ireland
IWMA 14 Review of Dublin Region Annual Progress Report 2009
SLR Ref: 501.0181.00001.002 th 15 February 2010
•
Household waste growth in Dublin between 2003 and 2008 has averaged 0.65% per annum whereas population growth from 2002 to 2006 averaged 1.4% per annum and this suggests that household waste arisings grow at about half the rate of population growth. This suggests that household waste generation per capita in Dublin is falling.
•
The household waste recycling rate increased from 28% in 2007 to 35% in 2008 due to a number of factors including: o
the partial roll-out of the household brown bin,
o
increased frequency of collection of the household green bin (monthly to fortnightly),
o
expanded list of materials collected in the green bin (plastic and glass in places), and
o
increased volumes of recyclables collected through the bring bank network.
•
Based on evidence from Galway City, the full roll-out of the household brown bin could increase the household waste recycling rate in the Dublin Region to 52.4%.
•
SLR believes that the 60% target for recycling household waste in the Dublin Region is ambitious, but achievable by the target date of 2013.
•
The Dublin local authorities collected 280,253 tonne of residual household waste, litter and street sweepings in 2008. This figure is expected to drop to 225,000 tonnes in 2013, when the Poolbeg Incinerator is due to commence operation and may well be lower if the local authorities lose market share and/or commence recycling of litter and street sweepings.
•
Commercial waste arisings in the Dublin Region have fallen by 10% from 2006 to 2008 and this is consistent with SLR’s recent survey of the waste industry in the final quarter of 2009 that suggested a fall of 15 to 20% in commercial waste arisings in the Region as a result of the current recession.
•
Commercial waste recycling rates decreased from 49% in 2007 to 46% in 2008. The main cause of this reduction in recycling rates is thought to relate to the collapse of international markets for recycled material such as paper, cardboard, metal and plastic in the second half of 2008. A secondary factor is believed to be the reduction in landfill gate fees experienced from mid 2008 to date. The international markets recovered to some extent in 2009 and the landfill levy has increased recently and will continue to increase dramatically over the next two years to a proposed level of €75 per tonne by 2012. These developments should ensure that the reduced recycling rate for commercial waste was a temporary set back and recycling rates of 60% or higher should be achievable by 2013.
•
Residual commercial waste from the Dublin Region amounted to 397,704 tonnes in 2008. It is estimated that the Dublin local authorities control less than 5% of that market, so it is assumed that the local authorities collected less than 20,000 tonnes of residual commercial waste in 2008. SLR Consulting Ireland
IWMA 15 Review of Dublin Region Annual Progress Report 2009
•
SLR Ref: 501.0181.00001.002 th 15 February 2010
The 2009 Annual Progress Report contains predictions of household and commercial waste growth from 2009 to 2020. The original projections from the Waste Management Plan 2005-2010 grossly over-estimated household waste growth from 2004 to 2008. This over-estimate of growth ranged from 250% to 1,000%. SLR suggests that the latest projections for household waste growth, as presented in the 2009 Annual Progress Report, are also over-estimated as the authors of that report have made the following assumptions that skew the data towards an over-estimation: o
The projections use the highest of four population growth scenarios put forward by the CSO and this assumes high levels of net immigration,
o
The projections assume that household waste growth will mirror population growth when the recent evidence in Dublin and Ireland shows that household waste growth has been 40% to 50% of population growth,
o
Household waste growth from 2008 to 2009 is projected at 6% and this appears to be an error that skews all future projections. There is no justification for an increase that is 10 times higher than the average growth rates for the previous 5 years (0.65% per annum).
•
Commercial waste growth projections are more difficult to predict than household waste projections and growth rates have been erratic in recent years. However, the 2009 Annual Progress Report predicts higher growth rates from 2011 to 2020 than was originally projected in the Dublin Waste Management Plan (2005) and SLR fails to see any justification for such increased projections. A comparison of waste growth projections presented by RPS in regional waste plans elsewhere in Ireland (North and South) shows that the projections for commercial waste growth in the Dublin Region are twice as high as the average of similar projections in eight other regions.
•
Despite SLR’s reservations in relation to waste growth projections put forward in the 2009 Annual progress Report, these projections confirm that if the Dublin Authorities can maintain their current market share, they will have between 218,000 and 245,000 t/a of residual waste from 2013 to 2020 to deliver to the Poolbeg Incinerator. This represents a shortfall of 75,000 to 102,000 t/a on their put or pay contract commitment of 320,000 t/a.
•
Also using the projections provided in the 2009 Annual Progress Report and adding potentially available private sector residual waste, we estimate that the total requirement for an incinerator in Dublin is in or around 300,000 t/a. This is consistent with SLR’s previous reports on this matter.
SLR Consulting Ireland
