Fiona Hogan, NEFMC Staff Skate PDT Chair
Fiona Hogan, NEFMC Staff Skate PDT Chair NEFMC Meeting September 27, 2017
Framework 5: Alternatives
Specifications Barndoor skate possession limit
Skate Complex Biomass Indices 16
Survey Indices
8 4
Updated Survey Indices
Increased indices for 2 of 7 species on 2015/16 Overfishing not occurring Overfished: thorny
10 8 6
Little Skate
4 2
Barndoor Skate 2
NEFSC Biomass Index (kg/tow)
Winter Skate
12
1
Thorny Skate
8 6 4 2
0.8 0.6
Smooth Skate
0.4 0.2
1.5
Clearnose Skate
1.0 0.5
0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02
Rosette Skate
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
1.1.1 Specifications
SSC approved in August MSY = 36,794 mt Key components
Survey indices Discards Catch/biomass medians
AP recommended the updated specifications (Option 2) to be the preferred alternative
ACL = ABC 31,327 mt
Management Uncertainty
ACT = 75% of ACL 23,495 mt Projected Dead Discards (41%)
State Landings (4.4%)
TAL = ACT – Discards – State Landings 13,157 mt
Wing TAL e.g. 66.5% = 8,749 mt
Bait TAL e.g. 33.5% = 4,408 mt
1.1.1 Impacts
Biological impacts
Option 1 - low positive Option 2 – slightly low negative
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 5800 6000 6200 6400 6600 6800 7000 7200 7400 7600 7800 8000 8200 8400 8600 8800 9000 9200 9400 9600 9900
1.1.1 Impacts 2500
2000
1500
1
2
1000
500
0
1.1.1 Impacts FY 2016 Catch and Landings of Skates Compared to Management Specifications
Management Specification
Specification Amount
Catch/Landings (mt)
Percent Landed or Caught
ABC/ACL
31,081
24,549
79%
ACT (75% of ABC)
23,311
24,549
110%
Assumed Discards + State Landings
10,721
10,310
NA
TAL Bait
4,218
4,262
101%
8,268
98.8%
TAL Wings
8,372
Discards
Adjusting discards for barndoor skate – unnecessary Current method to estimate landings and discards by species uses the length composition of the survey applied to the length composition of each portion of the catch – it’s contributing to landings already
Table 33 – Total and dead skate discards for calendar years 2012 - 2016 Year 2012 2013 2014
Total Discards (mt) 36,277 42,716 42,758
Dead Discards (mt) 10,270 12,093 12,673
2015 2016
37,894 33,271
10,417 10,436
1.1.1 Impacts
EFH Impacts
Option 1 – minor negative impacts Option 2 – minor negative impacts
Protected Resource Impacts
Option 1 – low negative Option 2 – low negative
1.1.1 Impacts ACL, No Action: Negative short-term: foregone revenues Negative long-term: foregone revenues ACL, Revised, TAL triggered: Low Negative short-term: revenue reduced Low Positive long-term: higher TAL achieved ACL, Revised, TAL not triggered: Low Positive short-term: revenue increased Low Positive long-term: higher TAL achieved
1.1.1 Impacts FY2016 Skate complex price and landings by disposition Disposition
Live weight Revenue (pounds)
Average price per lb
Wing
20,208,324
4,312,553
$ 0.21
10,146,208
$1,120,241
$ 0.11
160,539
$70,129
$ 0.44
7,991
$15
$ 0.00
Bait Unknown Personal Use/No market/packing, only
1.1.1 Impacts ACL, No Action: Negative short-term: foregone revenues Negative long-term: foregone revenues ACL, Revised, TAL triggered: Low Negative short-term: revenue reduced Low Positive long-term: higher TAL achieved ACL, Revised, TAL not triggered: Low Positive short-term: revenue increased Low Positive long-term: higher TAL achieved
1.2.1 Alternatives
Option 1 – No action Option 2 – 500 lb Option 3 – Proportional approach Option 4 – Mixed Option 5 – Discard restrictions
Options 3 and 5 recommended by the AP to be the preferred alternatives
Proportional approach
1.2.1 Impacts
Biological Impacts
Option 1 – positive for barndoor; neutral for skate complex Option 2 – Low negative for barndoor; low positive for skate complex Option 3 – negative for barndoor; low positive for skate complex Option 4 – negative for barndoor; low positive for skate complex Option 5 – low positive
Feedback on barndoor
Landings
Biological
What about state landings? Higher limit in Season 2 Survey proportion Management and scientific uncertainty buffer
Monitoring
Can we detect shifts onto barndoor
1.2.1 Impacts
EFH Impacts
Option 1 – low negative Option 2 – low negative Option 3 – low negative Option 4 – low negative Option 5 – low negative
Protected Resource Impacts
Options 1 – 5 – low negative
1.2.1 Impacts Short run: Option: 1
Without Option 5 Neutral
Long run: With Option 5 N.A.
Without Option 5 Neutral
With Option 5 N.A.
2
MediumLow low positive positive
MediumLow low positive positive
3
Mediumhigh positive High positive
Mediumhigh positive Medium negative
4
Medium positive Mediumhigh positive
Medium positive Neutral
1.2.1 Impacts Short run:
Long run:
1
Neutral
Negative
2
Low positive
Low positive
3
Medium positive
Medium positive
4
High positive
Unknown
5
Neutral
Low positive
Option:
Limited Access YEAR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of distinct skate permits 1968 2391 2632 2675 2685 2633 2574 2503 2326 2265 2202 2148 2084 2074 1919
Limited Access FYEAR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total
Number of permits 807 747 757 708 574 584 594 586 549 572 550 567 527 455 452 440 415
SUM(SPPLIV LB) 28,687,769 27,574,209 27,044,193 35,642,997 33,841,051 31,618,607 32,768,904 42,636,697 39,368,647 40,395,958 31,751,580 40,003,340 31,881,532 30,065,547 33,672,850 31,426,230 29,322,293 567,702,404
SUM(SPPLND LB) 17,396,346 17,308,245 16,792,103 20,441,768 19,263,776 18,724,101 19,675,523 25,161,377 23,695,298 24,123,535 20,180,770 24,470,657 20,274,739 19,834,644 20,842,305 20,206,843 19,588,405 347,980,435
SUM(SPPVAL UE) 3,732,998 2,988,346 3,455,023 4,525,488 5,172,408 5,522,563 7,112,309 8,262,164 6,752,855 7,257,965 6,051,191 8,874,093 6,727,504 7,125,863 9,024,569 5,590,823 5,113,614 103,289,776
Skate Research
Thorny Skate tagging studies
Movement patterns and stock structure
Satellite tags Floy tags
Discard mortality
Barndoor skate discard mortality
SNE gillnet fishery
Satellite tags
Timelines Framework 4
Framework 5
Amendment 5
Development
April – June 2017
July – Sept 2017
Oct 2017 - ?
Final Action
June 2017
Sept/Dec 2017
TBD
Preliminary Submission
August 25, 2017
Oct/Nov 2017
TBD
Final Submission
TBD
TBD
TBD
Framework 5: Alternatives
Specifications Barndoor skate possession limit
Skate Complex Biomass Indices 16
Survey Indices
8 4
Updated Survey Indices
Increased indices for 2 of 7 species on 2015/16 Overfishing not occurring Overfished: thorny
10 8 6
Little Skate
4 2
Barndoor Skate 2
NEFSC Biomass Index (kg/tow)
Winter Skate
12
1
Thorny Skate
8 6 4 2
0.8 0.6
Smooth Skate
0.4 0.2
1.5
Clearnose Skate
1.0 0.5
0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02
Rosette Skate
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
1.1.1 Specifications
SSC approved in August MSY = 36,794 mt Key components
Survey indices Discards Catch/biomass medians
AP recommended the updated specifications (Option 2) to be the preferred alternative
ACL = ABC 31,327 mt
Management Uncertainty
ACT = 75% of ACL 23,495 mt Projected Dead Discards (41%)
State Landings (4.4%)
TAL = ACT – Discards – State Landings 13,157 mt
Wing TAL e.g. 66.5% = 8,749 mt
Bait TAL e.g. 33.5% = 4,408 mt
1.1.1 Impacts
Biological impacts
Option 1 - low positive Option 2 – slightly low negative
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 5800 6000 6200 6400 6600 6800 7000 7200 7400 7600 7800 8000 8200 8400 8600 8800 9000 9200 9400 9600 9900
1.1.1 Impacts 2500
2000
1500
1
2
1000
500
0
1.1.1 Impacts FY 2016 Catch and Landings of Skates Compared to Management Specifications
Management Specification
Specification Amount
Catch/Landings (mt)
Percent Landed or Caught
ABC/ACL
31,081
24,549
79%
ACT (75% of ABC)
23,311
24,549
110%
Assumed Discards + State Landings
10,721
10,310
NA
TAL Bait
4,218
4,262
101%
8,268
98.8%
TAL Wings
8,372
Discards
Adjusting discards for barndoor skate – unnecessary Current method to estimate landings and discards by species uses the length composition of the survey applied to the length composition of each portion of the catch – it’s contributing to landings already
Table 33 – Total and dead skate discards for calendar years 2012 - 2016 Year 2012 2013 2014
Total Discards (mt) 36,277 42,716 42,758
Dead Discards (mt) 10,270 12,093 12,673
2015 2016
37,894 33,271
10,417 10,436
1.1.1 Impacts
EFH Impacts
Option 1 – minor negative impacts Option 2 – minor negative impacts
Protected Resource Impacts
Option 1 – low negative Option 2 – low negative
1.1.1 Impacts ACL, No Action: Negative short-term: foregone revenues Negative long-term: foregone revenues ACL, Revised, TAL triggered: Low Negative short-term: revenue reduced Low Positive long-term: higher TAL achieved ACL, Revised, TAL not triggered: Low Positive short-term: revenue increased Low Positive long-term: higher TAL achieved
1.1.1 Impacts FY2016 Skate complex price and landings by disposition Disposition
Live weight Revenue (pounds)
Average price per lb
Wing
20,208,324
4,312,553
$ 0.21
10,146,208
$1,120,241
$ 0.11
160,539
$70,129
$ 0.44
7,991
$15
$ 0.00
Bait Unknown Personal Use/No market/packing, only
1.1.1 Impacts ACL, No Action: Negative short-term: foregone revenues Negative long-term: foregone revenues ACL, Revised, TAL triggered: Low Negative short-term: revenue reduced Low Positive long-term: higher TAL achieved ACL, Revised, TAL not triggered: Low Positive short-term: revenue increased Low Positive long-term: higher TAL achieved
1.2.1 Alternatives
Option 1 – No action Option 2 – 500 lb Option 3 – Proportional approach Option 4 – Mixed Option 5 – Discard restrictions
Options 3 and 5 recommended by the AP to be the preferred alternatives
Proportional approach
1.2.1 Impacts
Biological Impacts
Option 1 – positive for barndoor; neutral for skate complex Option 2 – Low negative for barndoor; low positive for skate complex Option 3 – negative for barndoor; low positive for skate complex Option 4 – negative for barndoor; low positive for skate complex Option 5 – low positive
Feedback on barndoor
Landings
Biological
What about state landings? Higher limit in Season 2 Survey proportion Management and scientific uncertainty buffer
Monitoring
Can we detect shifts onto barndoor
1.2.1 Impacts
EFH Impacts
Option 1 – low negative Option 2 – low negative Option 3 – low negative Option 4 – low negative Option 5 – low negative
Protected Resource Impacts
Options 1 – 5 – low negative
1.2.1 Impacts Short run: Option: 1
Without Option 5 Neutral
Long run: With Option 5 N.A.
Without Option 5 Neutral
With Option 5 N.A.
2
MediumLow low positive positive
MediumLow low positive positive
3
Mediumhigh positive High positive
Mediumhigh positive Medium negative
4
Medium positive Mediumhigh positive
Medium positive Neutral
1.2.1 Impacts Short run:
Long run:
1
Neutral
Negative
2
Low positive
Low positive
3
Medium positive
Medium positive
4
High positive
Unknown
5
Neutral
Low positive
Option:
Limited Access YEAR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of distinct skate permits 1968 2391 2632 2675 2685 2633 2574 2503 2326 2265 2202 2148 2084 2074 1919
Limited Access FYEAR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total
Number of permits 807 747 757 708 574 584 594 586 549 572 550 567 527 455 452 440 415
SUM(SPPLIV LB) 28,687,769 27,574,209 27,044,193 35,642,997 33,841,051 31,618,607 32,768,904 42,636,697 39,368,647 40,395,958 31,751,580 40,003,340 31,881,532 30,065,547 33,672,850 31,426,230 29,322,293 567,702,404
SUM(SPPLND LB) 17,396,346 17,308,245 16,792,103 20,441,768 19,263,776 18,724,101 19,675,523 25,161,377 23,695,298 24,123,535 20,180,770 24,470,657 20,274,739 19,834,644 20,842,305 20,206,843 19,588,405 347,980,435
SUM(SPPVAL UE) 3,732,998 2,988,346 3,455,023 4,525,488 5,172,408 5,522,563 7,112,309 8,262,164 6,752,855 7,257,965 6,051,191 8,874,093 6,727,504 7,125,863 9,024,569 5,590,823 5,113,614 103,289,776
Skate Research
Thorny Skate tagging studies
Movement patterns and stock structure
Satellite tags Floy tags
Discard mortality
Barndoor skate discard mortality
SNE gillnet fishery
Satellite tags
Timelines Framework 4
Framework 5
Amendment 5
Development
April – June 2017
July – Sept 2017
Oct 2017 - ?
Final Action
June 2017
Sept/Dec 2017
TBD
Preliminary Submission
August 25, 2017
Oct/Nov 2017
TBD
Final Submission
TBD
TBD
TBD
