Forecasts Update Report Cement sector - Q3 2015 forecasts
September 2015
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Seasonality to affect 3Q2015 earnings; we expect cement sector to exhibit robust growth Cement sales in Saudi Arabia have recovered after a slowdown in 1H2014 due to huge spending by the government on infrastructure at the start of 2015 and recovering of labor shortage issue in the market. Third quarter has historically witnessed seasonally low demand as Ramadan and Hajj fall in this quarter. Lower working hours and construction activity during Ramadan and hajj lead to a decrease in demand for cement. Strong cement sales were reported for year-to-date (YTD) until August 2015. Cement sales increased 12.4% YoY to 39.5mn tons, indicating strong growth. We maintain our healthy growth outlook and expect cement sales to increase 11.8% YoY to 12.74mn tons in 3Q2015 from 11.39mn tons in 3Q2014. Saudi Arabia’s record budgeted expenditure of SAR 860bn would boost overall infrastructure spending. In addition, a strong pipeline of projects – including affordable housing, Riyadh Metro, Makkah and Madinah expansion, and airports will lead to continued growth in cement demand. Moreover, a new land taxation law would fuel the housing sector, thereby leading to higher cement demand.
Clinker inventory still increasing; lifting export ban most important demand of producers The clinker inventory level of Saudi cement companies increased 14.5% YoY to 22.5mn tons in August 2015, after reaching a low of 4.2mn tons in June 2013. The rise in inventory was primarily due to high level of imported clinker and the fall in cement demand in 2014. With few new plants expected to be commissioned in next 2–3 years, we expect the inventory level to further rise as demand is not expected to match supply. Lower cement demand during Ramadan would add to the high inventory level in 3Q2015. Figure 1: Clinker Inventory level of Saudi Cement Sector (in thousand tons)
23,000 22,500 22,000 21,500 21,000 20,500 20,000 19,500 19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500
g15 Au
-1 5 Ju l
n15 Ju
-1 5 M
ay
5 r-1 Ap
-1 5 ar M
Fe b15
Ja n15
14 cDe
v14 No
4 t-1 Oc
Se p14
Au g
-1
4
Clinker inventory increased in 3Q2015
Source: Yamama Cement, AlJazira Capital Research
The rise in clinker inventory level has led to an increase in market competition (we observed a decline in selling price per ton). This has prompted cement companies to demand for the lifting of the ban on cement exports. Growing demand for cement from Qatar for stadiums and facilities for the FIFA 2022 World Cup and Egypt and others provides a great export opportunity to Saudi cement companies. Cement companies in eastern Saudi Arabia (Saudi Cement Co. and Eastern Cement Co.) are expected to benefit the most from the lifting of the ban due to their proximity to the GCC region. Companies with proximities to the North Western and South Western coasts are also expected to benefit from lifting of exports embargo. For instance, Najran Cement has plans to export cement to Yemen, and Yanbu Cement, 70 KM north-west of the Port of Yanbu, has advantage of proximity to the port. Similarly, Southern Province Cement Co.’s location bordering Yemen and proximity to Jazan port is expected to benefit from the removal of export ban. Other companies with their plants located close to borders would also benefit as they would be able to export cement and eventually the inventory levels would decline thus benefitting the overall cement sector in Saudi Arabia. Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
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+966 11 2256248
[email protected] © All rights reserved
Forecasts Update Report Cement sector - Q3 2015 forecasts
September 2015
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Buying opportunity in undervalued, high-dividend yield stocks: the cement sector is undervalued with a trailing 12 month (TTM) P/E of 11.7x compared with an average P/E of 14.4x for the last three years. The decline in stock prices primarily occurred after 2Q2015 due to drop in oil price and uncertainty in global markets owing to the possibility of a Greek default. In August 2015, the TASI index declined further 17.3% as China devalued its currency, sending shockwaves to global markets. The cement sector index declined 18.5% YTD (higher than the 7.3% YTD decline in the TASI). The markets have considered the government’s decision to cut unnecessary fiscal spending due to a projected increase in fiscal deficit. About nine cement companies have been added to the MSCI Saudi Arabia Index. Average dividend yield of these stocks is 6.28%. Dividend yield for the cement sector is higher than average dividend yield of all other sectors in the last 12 months (3.4%). Therefore, we believe this is a good buying opportunity to earn handsome dividend along with price appreciation over the next few months. Key valuation methodology (After adjustments): 12-month price targets of all cement companies under our coverage are adjusted with our amended valuation methodology. Our adjustment is to reduce the sensitivity of our valuation to terminal value. The key amendments in our valuation methodology are given below; • Upward revision in the company’s risk free rate to 3.32% from 2.84% (due to increase in US 10-year bond yield to 2.175%); where, the impact of such revision on valuation is minimal due to CAPM equation.
• Terminal growth rate is taken at 2.8% from 3.0%.
• KSA total market risk premium is taken at 13.8% (Bloomberg) from 12.09%.
Q3-2015 earnings estimates - Cement Company code
Company name
New12Forecasted Forecasted – Forecasted – Forecasted – Forecasted Prospective month – Net profits EPS Q3-2015 QoQ growth YoY growth EPS – 2015 PE – 2015 price target Q3-2015(mn)
Rating*
3020
Yamamah
165.9
0.82
-13.4%
20.9%
3.47
11.6x
53.2
Overweight
3030
Saudi
214.5
1.40
-15.5%
-7.4%
6.78
11.1x
99.2
Overweight
3050
Southern
222.4
1.59
-17.7%
-22.0%**
7.58
11.5x
113.4
Overweight
3040
Qassim
135.9
1.51
-19.2%
24.6%
6.71
12.6x
105.2
Overweight
3010
Arabian
147.2
1.47
-9.2%
9.9%
6.86
8.8x
82.9
Overweight
3060
Yanbu
178.5
1.13
-27.3%
9.6%
5.39
10.1x
72.5
Overweight
3002
Najran
44.1
0.26
-43.4%
6.9%
1.78
11.1x
26.4
Overweight
3001
Hail
38.4
0.39
34.2%
53.1%
1.59
11.0x
24.5
Overweight
3003
City
55.1
0.29
-19.4%
17.2%
1.36
13.8x
23.2
Overweight
3080
Eastern
67.8
0.79
-26.9%
21.3%
3.75
10.2x
51.8
Overweight
3004
Northern
62.3
0.35
-2.7%
21.4%
1.38
12.6x
21.1
Overweight
Source: Aljazira Capital * our ratings are based on the closing prices of 14/9/2015 ** Non-recurring income in Q3-2014
The key risks to margins in the cement sector are: Fuel pricing and supply concerns: Saudi Aramco has not clarified the status of fuel supply agreements for the upcoming capacity additions in the Kingdom. Thus, limited fuel allocation to the cement sector could pose a major threat to the planned capacity expansion, pushing production cost higher as companies’ source fuel at higher costs. This would impact margins of cement companies. Declining global oil prices: Saudi Arabia depends heavily on the revenues generated from the petroleum sector. However, the global oil prices are on the decline, touching six-year lows. This would adversely impact the Saudis Arabia revenues, thereby could impacting government spending on infrastructure. Lower government spending on infrastructure (biggest driver of cement) would impact demand, thereby affecting prices due to high inventory level in the sector. Consequently, margins are likely to decline.
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RESEARCH DIVISION
AGM - Head of Research
Abdullah Alawi +966 11 2256250
[email protected] Analyst
Sultan Al Kadi
+966 11 2256115
[email protected] +966 11 2256374
[email protected] General manager - brokerage services and sales
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
Ala’a Al-Yousef
brokerage
Brokerage
+966 11 2256000
[email protected] Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256277
[email protected] +966 12 6618400
[email protected] AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Samer Al- Joauni
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547
[email protected] +966 1 225 6352
[email protected] Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248
[email protected] BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Analyst
+966 11 2256364
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RATING TERMINOLOGY
Senior Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
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