FORWARD CURVE INTEREST RATE CURVE
FORWARD CURVE 6.5
6.5
CNH 6.3
6.3
CNY NDF
6.1
6.1
CBA forecasts
5.9
5.9 spot 1m
3m
6m
9m
12m 18m 24m
INTEREST RATE CURVE %
% 8
8 lending
CHIBOR
6
6
4
4
deposit
2
2
0
0 O/N
Prev
Daily
China Market Snapshot Current
Close
Change
USD/CNY
6.3825
6.3909
-0.13%
USD/CNY
USD/CNH
6.3721
6.3775
-0.08%
3 Month CNY NDF*
-0.40%
-0.62%
12 Month CNY NDF*
-1.65%
-2.04%
Shanghai Composite
2,608
2,627
Shenzhen Composite
1,167
3 Month CHIBOR (%)
7.30
2 Year Bond Yield (%) 10 Year Bond Yield (%)
1m
3m
6m
9m
12m 1-3y 3-5y
End Period Current
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
6.3825
6.3711
6.2756
6.2128
China 2 Year Bond Yield (%)
3.61
3.50
3.50
3.70
0.22 ppts
China 10 Year Bond Yield (%)
3.94
3.95
3.95
4.10
0.4 ppts
Benchmark 1 Year Lending rate (%)
6.56
6.56
6.56
6.56
-0.71%
Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) (%)
21.50
22.50
23.00
23.00
1,175
-0.73%
Real GDP Grow th (%YoY)
9.5
9.6
9.4
9.2
5.55
175 bps
Inflation (%YoY)
6.5
5.0
4.4
4.0
3.61
3.61
0 bps
Non-food Inflation (%YoY)
2.9
2.3
2.2
2.1
3.94
3.94
0 bps
Food Inflation (%YoY)
14.8
11.5
9.5
8.5
Source: Bloomberg, * denotes % difference from USD/CNY
China Forecasts
Source: Bloomberg, CBA
EQUITY MARKETS Index
Index 3500
1500 Shanghai Composite (lhs)
3000
1300
2500
1100
Shenzhen Composite (lhs) 2000
900
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
CURRENCY PERFORMANCE (% change vs. USD) KRW Depreciation
IDR CNY INR MYR TWD HKD
daily
THB PHP
weekly Appreciation
SGD
-2
-1
0
1
2
SGD NOMINAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (SGDNEER) 119
119 Upper bound
115
Moving mid point
SGDNEER 111
115
111 Lower bound
107
107
L C•
103
103
99 Dec 06
99 Dec 08
Dec 10
6.5
CNH 6.3
6.3
CNY NDF
6.1
6.1
CBA forecasts
5.9
5.9 spot 1m
3m
6m
9m
12m 18m 24m
INTEREST RATE CURVE %
% 8
8 lending
CHIBOR
6
6
4
4
deposit
2
2
0
0 O/N
Prev
Daily
China Market Snapshot Current
Close
Change
USD/CNY
6.3825
6.3909
-0.13%
USD/CNY
USD/CNH
6.3721
6.3775
-0.08%
3 Month CNY NDF*
-0.40%
-0.62%
12 Month CNY NDF*
-1.65%
-2.04%
Shanghai Composite
2,608
2,627
Shenzhen Composite
1,167
3 Month CHIBOR (%)
7.30
2 Year Bond Yield (%) 10 Year Bond Yield (%)
1m
3m
6m
9m
12m 1-3y 3-5y
End Period Current
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
6.3825
6.3711
6.2756
6.2128
China 2 Year Bond Yield (%)
3.61
3.50
3.50
3.70
0.22 ppts
China 10 Year Bond Yield (%)
3.94
3.95
3.95
4.10
0.4 ppts
Benchmark 1 Year Lending rate (%)
6.56
6.56
6.56
6.56
-0.71%
Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) (%)
21.50
22.50
23.00
23.00
1,175
-0.73%
Real GDP Grow th (%YoY)
9.5
9.6
9.4
9.2
5.55
175 bps
Inflation (%YoY)
6.5
5.0
4.4
4.0
3.61
3.61
0 bps
Non-food Inflation (%YoY)
2.9
2.3
2.2
2.1
3.94
3.94
0 bps
Food Inflation (%YoY)
14.8
11.5
9.5
8.5
Source: Bloomberg, * denotes % difference from USD/CNY
China Forecasts
Source: Bloomberg, CBA
EQUITY MARKETS Index
Index 3500
1500 Shanghai Composite (lhs)
3000
1300
2500
1100
Shenzhen Composite (lhs) 2000
900
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
CURRENCY PERFORMANCE (% change vs. USD) KRW Depreciation
IDR CNY INR MYR TWD HKD
daily
THB PHP
weekly Appreciation
SGD
-2
-1
0
1
2
SGD NOMINAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (SGDNEER) 119
119 Upper bound
115
Moving mid point
SGDNEER 111
115
111 Lower bound
107
107
L C•
103
103
99 Dec 06
99 Dec 08
Dec 10
