Freelance Graphics - Squamish 2005.PRZ
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
CMHC Market Analysis
Squamish Housing Markets
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 [email protected]
CMHC Market Analysis
Mortgage Rates 1951-2004, three year forecast % 20 15 10 5 0 51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
01
06
five year term CMHC Victoria 363-8040 Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
CMHC Market Analysis
B.C. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 1st Q 1990 - 4th Q 2004 Seasonally Adjusted 115 110
Consumer Confidence Index 1991=100
105 100 95 90 85 80 2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
75
Quarterly
DATA: Conference Board of Canada CMHC Victoria 363-8040
CMHC Market Analysis
KEY PROVINCIAL INDICATORS British Columbia 2002
2003
2004
2005f
2.4
2.2
3.0e
3.2
20,459
29,345
35,000e
38,500
1.6
2.5
2.4
2.2
8.5
8.1
7.3
6.7
Total
21,625
26,174
32,925
33,600
Singles
10,730
12,252
14,056
13,800
Multiples
10,895
13,922
18,869
19,800
82,737
93,095
96,316
90,000
238,877
259,990
289,107
308,000
Real GDP (% chg) Net Migration Employment (% chg) Unemp. Rate (%) Housing Starts (units)
MLS Sales (units) Avg. MLS Price ($)
SOURCES: CMHC, Canadian Real Estate Association and Statistics Canada; estimate & forecast by CMHC
CMHC Victoria 363-8040 Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Population Squamish-Lillooet Reg. Dist.
Squamish
40
16 15
35 Thousands
Thousands
14 13 12 11 10
30 25 20
9 8
15 1976
1981 1986
1991 1996
2001
1976
1981 1986
1991 1996
Demographics % Change in Estimated Population 12 Squamish
10
Whistler
Pemberton
8 6 4 2 0 -2 2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: B.C. Stats Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
2004
2001
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Demographics
Percentage Age Distribution 60 Squamish
Pemberton
Whistler
B.C.
50 40 30 20 10 0 Under 15
15-24
25-44
45-64
65+
Source: 2001 Census
Sea-to-Sky Labour Force Participation Rates, 2001 100
Male
90
Female
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Squamish
Pemberton
Whistler
Source: 2001 Census
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
B.C.
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Incomes Median Income, 2001 35
Thousands
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Squamish-Lillooet Squamish
Pemberton
B.C. Whistler
Source: 2001 Census
Squamish-Lillooet shows diverse economy
Index measures crime, youth at risk, poverty, housing costs etc. Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Home Values Average Value of Dwelling, 2001 600
Thousands
500 400 300 200 100 0 Squamish-Lillooet Squamish
Pemberton
B.C. Whistler
Source: 2001 Census
Sea-to-Sky Housing Dwelling Tenure, 2001
Squamish
Pemberton
rented 27.7%
rented 31.0% owned 69.0%
owned 72.3%
Whistler rented 46.2%
BC rented 33.5% owned 53.8%
Source: Statistics Canada Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
owned 66.5%
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Squamish Housing local employment driven by logging & forest products manufacture secondary drivers are tourism, retail trade & construction 2010 already impacting economy local economy poised for more diversification large commuter base
Squamish Housing New Home Starts, 1991-2004 350 multi
300
single
250 200 150 100 50 0 91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
Source:CMHC Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
01
02
03
04
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
SQUAMISH VACANCY RATE
%
1985 - 2004
15
10
5
0 85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
SOURCE: CMHC
SQUAMISH %
Average Apartment Rents - Annual Percent Chg. 1990 - 2004
20
15
10
5
0
-5 90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
SOURCE: CMHC
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
02
03
04
03
04
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Squamish Housing Detached House Sales, 1991-2004 300
250
200
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
100
1991
150
Source: GV Real Estate Board, forecast by CMHC
Squamish Housing Average Prices, 1999-2004 $400 $350
Thousands
$300
House Townhouse Apt
$250 $200 $150 $100 $50 1999
2000
2001
2002
Source:Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
2003
2004
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Sea-to-Sky Housing Future Directions Whistler Comprehensive Sustainability Pemberton development slowing Squamish development on track Potential First Nations Development 2010 Winter Olympic legacies Aging population - seniors' housing Affordability concerns growing
Squamish Core Housing Need Status 2001 Households In Core Need 10.9%
Not in Core Need 89.1%
Source: CMHC (census-based indicators and data)
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Squamish 2001 Households in Core Housing Need Senior 23.8%
Non-family 32.4%
Family 43.8%
Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data)
Canada 2001 Households in Core Housing Need Senior 28.7%
Non-family 29.7%
Family 41.5%
Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data)
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Squamish Households in Core Housing Need, 2001 Senior
rented 53.8%
Non-family owned 46.2%
rented 55.3%
owned 44.7%
Family owned 37.1% rented 62.9%
Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data)
CMHC Market Analysis
CMHC Market Reports Get the Competitive Edge! Monthly Homebuilding Release Housing Now B.C. quarterly Housing Market Outlook - Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna Seniors Housing Market Report - Okanagan, Vancouver, Vancouver Island Rental Market Reports . . . Victoria Vancouver Kelowna B.C. Highlights
also CMHC Research
www.cmhc.ca CMHC Victoria 363-8040
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
CMHC Market Analysis
Squamish Housing Markets
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 [email protected]
CMHC Market Analysis
Mortgage Rates 1951-2004, three year forecast % 20 15 10 5 0 51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
01
06
five year term CMHC Victoria 363-8040 Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
CMHC Market Analysis
B.C. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 1st Q 1990 - 4th Q 2004 Seasonally Adjusted 115 110
Consumer Confidence Index 1991=100
105 100 95 90 85 80 2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
75
Quarterly
DATA: Conference Board of Canada CMHC Victoria 363-8040
CMHC Market Analysis
KEY PROVINCIAL INDICATORS British Columbia 2002
2003
2004
2005f
2.4
2.2
3.0e
3.2
20,459
29,345
35,000e
38,500
1.6
2.5
2.4
2.2
8.5
8.1
7.3
6.7
Total
21,625
26,174
32,925
33,600
Singles
10,730
12,252
14,056
13,800
Multiples
10,895
13,922
18,869
19,800
82,737
93,095
96,316
90,000
238,877
259,990
289,107
308,000
Real GDP (% chg) Net Migration Employment (% chg) Unemp. Rate (%) Housing Starts (units)
MLS Sales (units) Avg. MLS Price ($)
SOURCES: CMHC, Canadian Real Estate Association and Statistics Canada; estimate & forecast by CMHC
CMHC Victoria 363-8040 Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Population Squamish-Lillooet Reg. Dist.
Squamish
40
16 15
35 Thousands
Thousands
14 13 12 11 10
30 25 20
9 8
15 1976
1981 1986
1991 1996
2001
1976
1981 1986
1991 1996
Demographics % Change in Estimated Population 12 Squamish
10
Whistler
Pemberton
8 6 4 2 0 -2 2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: B.C. Stats Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
2004
2001
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Demographics
Percentage Age Distribution 60 Squamish
Pemberton
Whistler
B.C.
50 40 30 20 10 0 Under 15
15-24
25-44
45-64
65+
Source: 2001 Census
Sea-to-Sky Labour Force Participation Rates, 2001 100
Male
90
Female
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Squamish
Pemberton
Whistler
Source: 2001 Census
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
B.C.
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Incomes Median Income, 2001 35
Thousands
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Squamish-Lillooet Squamish
Pemberton
B.C. Whistler
Source: 2001 Census
Squamish-Lillooet shows diverse economy
Index measures crime, youth at risk, poverty, housing costs etc. Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Home Values Average Value of Dwelling, 2001 600
Thousands
500 400 300 200 100 0 Squamish-Lillooet Squamish
Pemberton
B.C. Whistler
Source: 2001 Census
Sea-to-Sky Housing Dwelling Tenure, 2001
Squamish
Pemberton
rented 27.7%
rented 31.0% owned 69.0%
owned 72.3%
Whistler rented 46.2%
BC rented 33.5% owned 53.8%
Source: Statistics Canada Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
owned 66.5%
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Squamish Housing local employment driven by logging & forest products manufacture secondary drivers are tourism, retail trade & construction 2010 already impacting economy local economy poised for more diversification large commuter base
Squamish Housing New Home Starts, 1991-2004 350 multi
300
single
250 200 150 100 50 0 91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
Source:CMHC Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
01
02
03
04
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
SQUAMISH VACANCY RATE
%
1985 - 2004
15
10
5
0 85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
SOURCE: CMHC
SQUAMISH %
Average Apartment Rents - Annual Percent Chg. 1990 - 2004
20
15
10
5
0
-5 90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
SOURCE: CMHC
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
02
03
04
03
04
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Squamish Housing Detached House Sales, 1991-2004 300
250
200
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
100
1991
150
Source: GV Real Estate Board, forecast by CMHC
Squamish Housing Average Prices, 1999-2004 $400 $350
Thousands
$300
House Townhouse Apt
$250 $200 $150 $100 $50 1999
2000
2001
2002
Source:Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
2003
2004
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Sea-to-Sky Housing Future Directions Whistler Comprehensive Sustainability Pemberton development slowing Squamish development on track Potential First Nations Development 2010 Winter Olympic legacies Aging population - seniors' housing Affordability concerns growing
Squamish Core Housing Need Status 2001 Households In Core Need 10.9%
Not in Core Need 89.1%
Source: CMHC (census-based indicators and data)
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Squamish 2001 Households in Core Housing Need Senior 23.8%
Non-family 32.4%
Family 43.8%
Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data)
Canada 2001 Households in Core Housing Need Senior 28.7%
Non-family 29.7%
Family 41.5%
Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data)
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
Sea-to-Sky Housing Markets February 2005
Squamish Households in Core Housing Need, 2001 Senior
rented 53.8%
Non-family owned 46.2%
rented 55.3%
owned 44.7%
Family owned 37.1% rented 62.9%
Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data)
CMHC Market Analysis
CMHC Market Reports Get the Competitive Edge! Monthly Homebuilding Release Housing Now B.C. quarterly Housing Market Outlook - Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna Seniors Housing Market Report - Okanagan, Vancouver, Vancouver Island Rental Market Reports . . . Victoria Vancouver Kelowna B.C. Highlights
also CMHC Research
www.cmhc.ca CMHC Victoria 363-8040
Peggy Prill (250) 363-8045 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation
