Gas Purchasing Committee Meeting
APGA Gas Supply Conference Market Forecasting Donnie Sharp Senior Natural Gas Supply Coordinator Huntsville Utilities
January 30, 2017
Background The Desk, a weekly digital newsletter and The Risk Desk, a bi-weekly magazine, and The Risk Desk are published by Scudder Publishing Group LLC, a leading energy news and information publishing company founded in 1997. The company is staffed by veteran news reporters and analysts, editors and columnists who have covered the energy sector for decades. The Desk is the market’s leading weekly newsletter (published 48X) on trends in energy commodity markets, policy, and includes the most comprehensive coverage of natural gas storage and specifically the EIA’s weekly storage report release. The Desk operates the continent’s biggest analyst forecast survey (40+ analysts, models and surveys contacted each week) for the EIA’s storage report. The competition includes many of the nation’s leading bank/financial analysts, independent consultants/analysts, surveys (Bloomberg, Reuters, Dow Jones, Platts) And me
Background (continued)
In 2016, I was The Desk’s winner of the 1st Quarter Boxscore on EIA Storage’s weekly projection In 2016, I was also The Desk’s winner of the End of Season Forecast Competition Copies of publication are included in your handouts. If interested in seeing more of the publication, contact [email protected]
2016 1st Quarter Storage Comparison
And me
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-looking Statements
Disclaimer: This presentation is furnished on an “as is” basis. Huntsville Utilities does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of the presentation or the information contained therein. Huntsville Utilities makes no warranty, express or implied, as to the use of any information contained in this report in connection with trading of commodities, equities, futures, options or any other use. Huntsville Utilities makes no express or implied warranties and expressly disclaims all warranties of merchant-ability of fitness for a particular purposes. Release and Limitation of Liability: In no event shall Huntsville Utilities be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages (including lost profit) arising out of or related to the accuracy or correctness of this presentation of the information contained therein, whether based no warranty, contract, tort, or any other legal theory.
A Few Quick Definitions… Natural Gas Market is a highly volatile futures market traded by commercial and nom-commercial participants on NYMEX/CME exchange Technical Analysis is the study of prices via various charting techniques to determine future price direction Candlestick Chart displays the open, high, low, and closing price of a selected period Market Profile Chart displays trade prices within 30-minute intervals Elliott Wave Theory is based upon the principle that pricing moves in definable 5 pattern waves Fibonacci numbers are a sequence of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers: (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233 etc). Any number is 1.618 time the preceding number and 0.618 times the following number. The correlation from one price to another can be broken into Fibonacci retracement levels at beginning at 0.0 to 0.382, 0.50, 0.618 to 1.0 upward Stochastics Momentum Index calculates the close relative to the midpoint of the recent high/low range between 0 and 100 Relative Strength Index calculates the strength of the current price movement as increasing from 0 to 100 Fundamental Analysis is the study of the economic conditions (supply/demand) and similar variables to determine future price direction
December 2016 Trade
October 2 through expiry on November 28 Key Takeaways on December trade: after weak demand during November, prices rebounded to 0.618 retracement level at expiry. Weather forecasts coming in colder, market shifted from oversold to overbought
January 2017 Trade During 2016
In order to know where you’re going, it’s good to have an idea where you’ve been…. Annual Low Feb 29 at $2.50; Annual High Oct 18 at $3.675
January 2017 Trade (1st Day Prompt)
What was January’s behavior prior to its turn as prompt?... It reached an annual high October 18 at $3.675 On Tuesday, November 29, it was overbought and had reached 0.618 retracement from the high to its low
January 2017 Analysis, (Tuesday, Nov 29)
Hello, My name is January, and I’m determining my value Jan 2017 1st day of trade as prompt month (on Tuesday, Nov 29).
January 2017 Analysis (Wednesday, Nov 30)
Jan 2017 2nd day of trade… Traded within its value range of the prior trade day. It did not probe more than a few pennies higher, and did not probe lower.
January 2017 Analysis (Thursday, Dec 1)
The market opened above the prior days range and traded higher throughout the day. It “gapped” higher and settled higher. Note that the day of trade was a Thursday
January 2017 Analysis (Thursday, Dec 1 Pt 2)
And it’s storage day. This week’s EIA number was 50 Bcf (which was not a surprise). Note that the market was already building momentum, and remained strong throughout the day. No big bounce up or down at 9:30 CST. But persistent buying throughout the day.
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 2)
Friday trade, after rallying the day before, prices checked the value of the prior day, probed lower, traded flat. What assumptions can one make? A short term peak, or spinning and waiting?
January 2017 (Monday, Dec 5)
Monday trade: The prior week’s trade is combined into one bell curve with the exception of Friday for comparative purposes. After rallying the week before, January prices gapped up and did not probe Friday’s price range. This is the 2nd gap in less than a week.
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 6)
Tuesday trade, after rallying the day before, prices checked the value of the prior day, probed higher in early trading, settled flat. Cash prices were strong – HH traded $3.63 - $3.73. Cold weather forecasts. What is this market thinking?
January 2017 (Wednesday, Dec 7)
Wednesday trade. On Tuesday, the market tested higher values before settling down. Today it did the same thing, other than as it failed to sustain higher value, it declined sharply in the final 30 minutes of the session. Cash prices remained very strong – HH traded $3.63 - $3.73. Cold weather forecasts. What is this market thinking?
January 2017 (Wednesday, Dec 7, Pt 2)
Let’s pull back and look at January trade for the past few weeks again January has retested its previous high at $3.674. However, look at the momentum indicators. Both indicate overbought. Is this a peak? About to sell off? Consolidation and then a run higher? $4.043 is the upside target. But it is overbought.
January 2017 (Thursday, Dec 8)
Thursday Trade , another “Storage Day”. On Wednesday, the market tested higher values before settling down. Today it did the same thing, other than as it failed to sustain higher value, it declined sharply in the final 30 minutes of the session. Cash prices remained very strong – HH traded $3.63 - $3.73. Cold weather forecasts. What is this market thinking?
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 9)
Friday Trade, for the week’s end. The market started strong, again probing its highs. HH Cash prices were also in the $3.70 range Friday morning. Prices withdrew into the close. Cash prices remained strong for the weekend – HH traded $3.63 - $3.73. What is this market thinking?
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 9, Pt 2)
Let’s look back at January from a broader time horizon. This week’s trade saw prices reach the previous January high. However, prices appear to have stalled there at this point. Look at the momentum indicators. What do they indicate?
January 2017 (Monday, Dec 12)
Monday trade, prior week combined into one bell curve with Friday’s day separated. Monday’s trade range did not touch Friday’s trade range. Henry Hub cash prices were down $0.20 on Monday for Tuesday delivery.
January 2017 (Monday, Dec 12, Pt 2)
Remember this chart from Friday? Look at the momentum indicators. Look at the Bollinger Bands. This chart indicates that a short term top was reached last week. While anything is always possible, high probability of selling to follow
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 13)
Tuesday trade: Note the highs for the day were during the first 30 minutes of the day and prices gradually declined, settling near the low. What is this market thinking?
January 2017 (Wednesday, Dec 14)
Wednesday trade: Note the lows for the day were during the first 30 minutes of the day and prices gradually declined, settling near the high. At this point prices have probed higher and failed (Tuesday) and probed lower (today) and failed. So what is the market thinking?
January 2017 (Thursday, Dec 15)
Thursday trade, another storage day: Note the highs for the day were during the 9:30 – 10:00 AM period of the day and after which prices declined, settling near the low. Prices bounced temporarily at the release of the storage number, and declined. The weather remains cold. Very cold in some regions of the country.
January 2017 (Thursday, Dec 15, Pt 2)
Thursday trade, another storage day: See the daily high in the 3 minute period after the storage report was made public by the EIA. From a fundamental perspective, the market was looking for a withdrawal near 126 – 130 Bcf. Actual withdrawal was 147 Bcf. So what is the market thinking?
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 16)
Friday trade: Observe that after trading horizontal Mon-Wed, and failing to move higher Thursday, settling lower, the market traded below Thursday’s settle, eventually settling down for the week and the day. Again, the weather remains cold. Very cold in regions of the country. Is this a move based upon fundamentals or technicals? Or a combination of both?
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 16, Pt 2)
Let’s pull back and look at January trade from a broader timeframe. Observe that after reaching its previous high at $3.678, prices stalled and traded lower and somewhat horizontally. Observe also that while the decline was slight ($0.40), the momentum indicators have declined significantly. This indicates temporary exhaustion of selling is occurring, or is nearby.
January 2017 (Monday, Dec 19)
Monday trade: Down a few pennies. Observe that after trading horizontal MonWed, and failing to move higher Thursday, settling lower, the market traded below Thursday’s settle, eventually settling down for the week and the day. Again, the weather remains cold. Very cold in regions of the country. Is this a move based upon fundamentals or technical?
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 20)
Tuesday trade: Note that January futures traded at its highs during the first 30 minutes and fell throughout the day, settling near its low. Again, the weather remains cold. Very cold in regions of the country. Is this a move based upon fundamentals or technical?
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 20, Pt 2)
Tuesday trade: Let’s look again at January trade on a daily chart. After peaking, prices have gradually traded lower, horizontally, not vertically. This is a relatively orderly indication of selling after the high. Look at the momentum indicators. They are becoming oversold. Look at the retracement target off the high. It is the 0.382 retracement level.
January 2017 (Wednesday, Dec 21)
Wednesday trade: Prices were above Tuesday’s settlement and trade range the entire day. Weather forecasts are calling for a respite from the colder than normal weather. Is this a move based upon fundamentals or technical?
January 2017 (Wednesday, Dec 21 Pt 2)
Wednesday trade: Let’s look yet again at January trade on a daily chart. Again, focus on the momentum indicators. Momentum indicators can certainly be oversold and overbought for long periods of time (and can be used in any time horizon). My assumption at this point is that the previous upside targets at/near $4.00 will be met
January 2017 (Thursday, Dec 22)
Thursday trade: Prices probed higher and consolidated flat for the trade day. From a fundamental perspective, the EIA announced that 209 Bcf was withdrawn from storage for the prior week. It was the 2nd time historically that over 200 Bcf had been withdrawn in during a week in December.
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 23)
Friday trade: OK, so I wasn’t in the office Friday…. But with technology today, a few clicks on a computer and you are basically in the office. There was continued buying into the weekend. A holiday weekend. Thoughts?
January 2017 (Monday, Dec 27)
Monday trade: Prices continued to move forward. The following day of trade, Dec 28, is the final day of trade for January futures. Therefore Dec 27 is the last day to trade options for the month of January.
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 28)
Tuesday trade saw a short squeeze into the final hours of trade, with the final settle at $3.930 And with that, January trade is over…
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 28, Pt 2)
As January trade has concluded, let’s refer back to its daily chart. On its last day of trade it took out the immediate 1.382 target at $3.982. The next target was $4.043. Well, hello February 2017…..
Long Term Thoughts
This is a weekly continuous chart I have been running for years. Assuming the 2008 was a long term high beginning a multi-year movement, prices remain bearish until, or if the 0.382 retracement is struck. 0.382 retracement is $6.72 prox
More Long Term Thoughts
More long term thoughts, because, well don’t ever stop thinking. This is an update to the weekly continuous chart, adapting to the 2012 low. Assuming the 2008 was a long term high beginning a multi-year movement, prices remain bearish until, or if the 0.382 retracement is struck. 0.382 retracement is $6.40 prox (which was struck in 2014)
Still More Long Term Thoughts
This is a monthly continuous chart. What I’m doing is picking apart the highs and lows to determine potential downside targets. 0.382 retracement is $6.40 prox (which was struck in 2014)
Final Long Term Thoughts
This is a monthly continuous chart, zeroing in tighter at the 2008 high. The most important takeaway is the $2.00 target, which was hit in 2012 (did anyone think they would really see $2.00 again until it happened?) Since withdrawing after touching the 0.382 retracement at $6.40, prices retested the $2.00 low.
What is going to happen next? I don’t know You don’t know either That being the case, what should those in our positions do? 1) Know your risk 2) Inform and discuss your company’s risk with your management teams, board members, etc. 3) Develop and maintain a strategy to manage price risk and protect your system’s rate payers as you would any other potential risk that could cause extreme harm to your system 4) Work closely with the APGA – they are our advocates, and we are stronger together than alone
Reading Materials Energy Price Risk by Tom James, Palgrave Macmillan Publisher New Trading Systems & Methods by Perry Kaufman, Wiley Publisher Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by Steve Nison, NYIF Publisher Beyond Candlesticks by Steve Nison, Wiley Publisher Steidlmayer on Markets (Trading with Market Profile) by J. Peter Steidlmayer and Steven B. Hawkins, Wiley Publisher Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter, Wiley Publisher Eilliott Wave Simplified by Clif Droke, Marketplace Books Publisher Bollinger on Bollinger Bands by John Bollinger, McGraw Hill Publisher
January 30, 2017
Background The Desk, a weekly digital newsletter and The Risk Desk, a bi-weekly magazine, and The Risk Desk are published by Scudder Publishing Group LLC, a leading energy news and information publishing company founded in 1997. The company is staffed by veteran news reporters and analysts, editors and columnists who have covered the energy sector for decades. The Desk is the market’s leading weekly newsletter (published 48X) on trends in energy commodity markets, policy, and includes the most comprehensive coverage of natural gas storage and specifically the EIA’s weekly storage report release. The Desk operates the continent’s biggest analyst forecast survey (40+ analysts, models and surveys contacted each week) for the EIA’s storage report. The competition includes many of the nation’s leading bank/financial analysts, independent consultants/analysts, surveys (Bloomberg, Reuters, Dow Jones, Platts) And me
Background (continued)
In 2016, I was The Desk’s winner of the 1st Quarter Boxscore on EIA Storage’s weekly projection In 2016, I was also The Desk’s winner of the End of Season Forecast Competition Copies of publication are included in your handouts. If interested in seeing more of the publication, contact [email protected]
2016 1st Quarter Storage Comparison
And me
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-looking Statements
Disclaimer: This presentation is furnished on an “as is” basis. Huntsville Utilities does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of the presentation or the information contained therein. Huntsville Utilities makes no warranty, express or implied, as to the use of any information contained in this report in connection with trading of commodities, equities, futures, options or any other use. Huntsville Utilities makes no express or implied warranties and expressly disclaims all warranties of merchant-ability of fitness for a particular purposes. Release and Limitation of Liability: In no event shall Huntsville Utilities be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages (including lost profit) arising out of or related to the accuracy or correctness of this presentation of the information contained therein, whether based no warranty, contract, tort, or any other legal theory.
A Few Quick Definitions… Natural Gas Market is a highly volatile futures market traded by commercial and nom-commercial participants on NYMEX/CME exchange Technical Analysis is the study of prices via various charting techniques to determine future price direction Candlestick Chart displays the open, high, low, and closing price of a selected period Market Profile Chart displays trade prices within 30-minute intervals Elliott Wave Theory is based upon the principle that pricing moves in definable 5 pattern waves Fibonacci numbers are a sequence of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers: (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233 etc). Any number is 1.618 time the preceding number and 0.618 times the following number. The correlation from one price to another can be broken into Fibonacci retracement levels at beginning at 0.0 to 0.382, 0.50, 0.618 to 1.0 upward Stochastics Momentum Index calculates the close relative to the midpoint of the recent high/low range between 0 and 100 Relative Strength Index calculates the strength of the current price movement as increasing from 0 to 100 Fundamental Analysis is the study of the economic conditions (supply/demand) and similar variables to determine future price direction
December 2016 Trade
October 2 through expiry on November 28 Key Takeaways on December trade: after weak demand during November, prices rebounded to 0.618 retracement level at expiry. Weather forecasts coming in colder, market shifted from oversold to overbought
January 2017 Trade During 2016
In order to know where you’re going, it’s good to have an idea where you’ve been…. Annual Low Feb 29 at $2.50; Annual High Oct 18 at $3.675
January 2017 Trade (1st Day Prompt)
What was January’s behavior prior to its turn as prompt?... It reached an annual high October 18 at $3.675 On Tuesday, November 29, it was overbought and had reached 0.618 retracement from the high to its low
January 2017 Analysis, (Tuesday, Nov 29)
Hello, My name is January, and I’m determining my value Jan 2017 1st day of trade as prompt month (on Tuesday, Nov 29).
January 2017 Analysis (Wednesday, Nov 30)
Jan 2017 2nd day of trade… Traded within its value range of the prior trade day. It did not probe more than a few pennies higher, and did not probe lower.
January 2017 Analysis (Thursday, Dec 1)
The market opened above the prior days range and traded higher throughout the day. It “gapped” higher and settled higher. Note that the day of trade was a Thursday
January 2017 Analysis (Thursday, Dec 1 Pt 2)
And it’s storage day. This week’s EIA number was 50 Bcf (which was not a surprise). Note that the market was already building momentum, and remained strong throughout the day. No big bounce up or down at 9:30 CST. But persistent buying throughout the day.
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 2)
Friday trade, after rallying the day before, prices checked the value of the prior day, probed lower, traded flat. What assumptions can one make? A short term peak, or spinning and waiting?
January 2017 (Monday, Dec 5)
Monday trade: The prior week’s trade is combined into one bell curve with the exception of Friday for comparative purposes. After rallying the week before, January prices gapped up and did not probe Friday’s price range. This is the 2nd gap in less than a week.
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 6)
Tuesday trade, after rallying the day before, prices checked the value of the prior day, probed higher in early trading, settled flat. Cash prices were strong – HH traded $3.63 - $3.73. Cold weather forecasts. What is this market thinking?
January 2017 (Wednesday, Dec 7)
Wednesday trade. On Tuesday, the market tested higher values before settling down. Today it did the same thing, other than as it failed to sustain higher value, it declined sharply in the final 30 minutes of the session. Cash prices remained very strong – HH traded $3.63 - $3.73. Cold weather forecasts. What is this market thinking?
January 2017 (Wednesday, Dec 7, Pt 2)
Let’s pull back and look at January trade for the past few weeks again January has retested its previous high at $3.674. However, look at the momentum indicators. Both indicate overbought. Is this a peak? About to sell off? Consolidation and then a run higher? $4.043 is the upside target. But it is overbought.
January 2017 (Thursday, Dec 8)
Thursday Trade , another “Storage Day”. On Wednesday, the market tested higher values before settling down. Today it did the same thing, other than as it failed to sustain higher value, it declined sharply in the final 30 minutes of the session. Cash prices remained very strong – HH traded $3.63 - $3.73. Cold weather forecasts. What is this market thinking?
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 9)
Friday Trade, for the week’s end. The market started strong, again probing its highs. HH Cash prices were also in the $3.70 range Friday morning. Prices withdrew into the close. Cash prices remained strong for the weekend – HH traded $3.63 - $3.73. What is this market thinking?
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 9, Pt 2)
Let’s look back at January from a broader time horizon. This week’s trade saw prices reach the previous January high. However, prices appear to have stalled there at this point. Look at the momentum indicators. What do they indicate?
January 2017 (Monday, Dec 12)
Monday trade, prior week combined into one bell curve with Friday’s day separated. Monday’s trade range did not touch Friday’s trade range. Henry Hub cash prices were down $0.20 on Monday for Tuesday delivery.
January 2017 (Monday, Dec 12, Pt 2)
Remember this chart from Friday? Look at the momentum indicators. Look at the Bollinger Bands. This chart indicates that a short term top was reached last week. While anything is always possible, high probability of selling to follow
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 13)
Tuesday trade: Note the highs for the day were during the first 30 minutes of the day and prices gradually declined, settling near the low. What is this market thinking?
January 2017 (Wednesday, Dec 14)
Wednesday trade: Note the lows for the day were during the first 30 minutes of the day and prices gradually declined, settling near the high. At this point prices have probed higher and failed (Tuesday) and probed lower (today) and failed. So what is the market thinking?
January 2017 (Thursday, Dec 15)
Thursday trade, another storage day: Note the highs for the day were during the 9:30 – 10:00 AM period of the day and after which prices declined, settling near the low. Prices bounced temporarily at the release of the storage number, and declined. The weather remains cold. Very cold in some regions of the country.
January 2017 (Thursday, Dec 15, Pt 2)
Thursday trade, another storage day: See the daily high in the 3 minute period after the storage report was made public by the EIA. From a fundamental perspective, the market was looking for a withdrawal near 126 – 130 Bcf. Actual withdrawal was 147 Bcf. So what is the market thinking?
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 16)
Friday trade: Observe that after trading horizontal Mon-Wed, and failing to move higher Thursday, settling lower, the market traded below Thursday’s settle, eventually settling down for the week and the day. Again, the weather remains cold. Very cold in regions of the country. Is this a move based upon fundamentals or technicals? Or a combination of both?
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 16, Pt 2)
Let’s pull back and look at January trade from a broader timeframe. Observe that after reaching its previous high at $3.678, prices stalled and traded lower and somewhat horizontally. Observe also that while the decline was slight ($0.40), the momentum indicators have declined significantly. This indicates temporary exhaustion of selling is occurring, or is nearby.
January 2017 (Monday, Dec 19)
Monday trade: Down a few pennies. Observe that after trading horizontal MonWed, and failing to move higher Thursday, settling lower, the market traded below Thursday’s settle, eventually settling down for the week and the day. Again, the weather remains cold. Very cold in regions of the country. Is this a move based upon fundamentals or technical?
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 20)
Tuesday trade: Note that January futures traded at its highs during the first 30 minutes and fell throughout the day, settling near its low. Again, the weather remains cold. Very cold in regions of the country. Is this a move based upon fundamentals or technical?
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 20, Pt 2)
Tuesday trade: Let’s look again at January trade on a daily chart. After peaking, prices have gradually traded lower, horizontally, not vertically. This is a relatively orderly indication of selling after the high. Look at the momentum indicators. They are becoming oversold. Look at the retracement target off the high. It is the 0.382 retracement level.
January 2017 (Wednesday, Dec 21)
Wednesday trade: Prices were above Tuesday’s settlement and trade range the entire day. Weather forecasts are calling for a respite from the colder than normal weather. Is this a move based upon fundamentals or technical?
January 2017 (Wednesday, Dec 21 Pt 2)
Wednesday trade: Let’s look yet again at January trade on a daily chart. Again, focus on the momentum indicators. Momentum indicators can certainly be oversold and overbought for long periods of time (and can be used in any time horizon). My assumption at this point is that the previous upside targets at/near $4.00 will be met
January 2017 (Thursday, Dec 22)
Thursday trade: Prices probed higher and consolidated flat for the trade day. From a fundamental perspective, the EIA announced that 209 Bcf was withdrawn from storage for the prior week. It was the 2nd time historically that over 200 Bcf had been withdrawn in during a week in December.
January 2017 (Friday, Dec 23)
Friday trade: OK, so I wasn’t in the office Friday…. But with technology today, a few clicks on a computer and you are basically in the office. There was continued buying into the weekend. A holiday weekend. Thoughts?
January 2017 (Monday, Dec 27)
Monday trade: Prices continued to move forward. The following day of trade, Dec 28, is the final day of trade for January futures. Therefore Dec 27 is the last day to trade options for the month of January.
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 28)
Tuesday trade saw a short squeeze into the final hours of trade, with the final settle at $3.930 And with that, January trade is over…
January 2017 (Tuesday, Dec 28, Pt 2)
As January trade has concluded, let’s refer back to its daily chart. On its last day of trade it took out the immediate 1.382 target at $3.982. The next target was $4.043. Well, hello February 2017…..
Long Term Thoughts
This is a weekly continuous chart I have been running for years. Assuming the 2008 was a long term high beginning a multi-year movement, prices remain bearish until, or if the 0.382 retracement is struck. 0.382 retracement is $6.72 prox
More Long Term Thoughts
More long term thoughts, because, well don’t ever stop thinking. This is an update to the weekly continuous chart, adapting to the 2012 low. Assuming the 2008 was a long term high beginning a multi-year movement, prices remain bearish until, or if the 0.382 retracement is struck. 0.382 retracement is $6.40 prox (which was struck in 2014)
Still More Long Term Thoughts
This is a monthly continuous chart. What I’m doing is picking apart the highs and lows to determine potential downside targets. 0.382 retracement is $6.40 prox (which was struck in 2014)
Final Long Term Thoughts
This is a monthly continuous chart, zeroing in tighter at the 2008 high. The most important takeaway is the $2.00 target, which was hit in 2012 (did anyone think they would really see $2.00 again until it happened?) Since withdrawing after touching the 0.382 retracement at $6.40, prices retested the $2.00 low.
What is going to happen next? I don’t know You don’t know either That being the case, what should those in our positions do? 1) Know your risk 2) Inform and discuss your company’s risk with your management teams, board members, etc. 3) Develop and maintain a strategy to manage price risk and protect your system’s rate payers as you would any other potential risk that could cause extreme harm to your system 4) Work closely with the APGA – they are our advocates, and we are stronger together than alone
Reading Materials Energy Price Risk by Tom James, Palgrave Macmillan Publisher New Trading Systems & Methods by Perry Kaufman, Wiley Publisher Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by Steve Nison, NYIF Publisher Beyond Candlesticks by Steve Nison, Wiley Publisher Steidlmayer on Markets (Trading with Market Profile) by J. Peter Steidlmayer and Steven B. Hawkins, Wiley Publisher Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter, Wiley Publisher Eilliott Wave Simplified by Clif Droke, Marketplace Books Publisher Bollinger on Bollinger Bands by John Bollinger, McGraw Hill Publisher
