gauteng barometer
GAUTENG BAROMETER
www.economists.co.za
1.1
Gauteng Barometer
115
110
Gauteng Barometer 105
100
95
90
85
1.2
Gauteng Growth Index
125
Gauteng Growth Index 120 115 110 105 100 95 90
www.economists.co.za
1.3
Gauteng Economic Stress Index
125
Gauteng Economic Stress Index 120 115 110 105 100 95 90
1.4
Gauteng Mining Index
www.economists.co.za
110 100
Gauteng Mining Index
90 80 70 60 50 40
1.5
Gauteng Manufacturing Index 120
Gauteng Manufacturing Index 115 110 105 100 95 90 85
1.6
Gauteng Construction Index
www.economists.co.za
130
Gauteng Construction Index
120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50
1.7
Gauteng Transport and Communication Index
150
Gauteng Transport and Communication Index
140
130
120
110
100
90
1.8
Gauteng Electricity Index
www.economists.co.za
120
Gauteng Electricity Index 115
110
105
100
95
90
1.9
Gauteng Trade Index 150 145
Gauteng Trade Index
140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85
www.economists.co.za
1.10 Gauteng Financial Services Index 130 125
Gauteng Financial Services Index
120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80
1.11 Government 170 160
Gauteng Goverment Index
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80
www.economists.co.za
1.12 Gauteng Business Barometer (% Change y/y) 20% 15%
Gauteng Barometer Index (% Change YoY)
10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15%
1.13 Gauteng Growth Index (% Change y/y)
www.economists.co.za
20,0%
Gauteng Growth Index (% Change YoY)
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
-5,0%
-10,0%
-15,0%
1.14 Gauteng Stress Index (% Change y/y)
www.economists.co.za
15,0%
Gauteng Economic Stress Index (% Change YoY) 10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
-5,0%
-10,0%
-15,0%
How do Sake24 provincial barometers work? The Sake24 provincial barometers measure business activity levels of four leading South African private sector provinces. These provinces are Gauteng, Western Cape, Eastern Cape and the Free State. The barometer for an individual province consists of a set of sub indices that not only measures the overall performance of the province, but also individual economic subsectors. The barometers were developed by renowned economist Mike Schüssler. They are unique as they are developed specifically for an individual province. The information is sourced from a comprehensive range of individual time series that is specific to the particular
Mortgages registered
Property24
Interest rates Time series Inflation Building statistics (comprehensive residential and Manufacturing industrial) Mining Cement sales
Reserve Bank Source StatsSA StatsSA StatsSA StatsSA CNCI
Retail sales Wholesale sales Electricity generated Cargo handling Vehicle sales (in all segments) Airport arrivals at international airports Fuel sales (comprehensive info for all sectors) Property transfers Instalment sales Asset management Civil debt judgements
StatsSA StatsSA StatsSA NPA Naamsa Acsa Sapia Property24 Reserve Bank ACI StatsSA
The provincial barometers are developed specifically for Unemployment (indexing of job advertisements in StatsSA/Media24 individual newspapers) provinces. They are compiled from numerous statisticalvolumes time series in variousin economic sectors. Advertising (total advertising all Media24These mainstream newspapers) time seriesradio andand their sources include:
www.economists.co.za
province. These time series is sourced from various sources, including Stats SA, industry bodies and individual companies. The data is deflated and seasonally adjusted and their contribution to the provincial indices weighted to their actual contribution. The individual provincial barometers do not measure economic growth, but highlights how the private sector economy reacts to changing market conditions. It highlights the immediate health of the provincial economy and its underlying economic sectors.
The information is published monthly and will provide key information to all entrepreneurs and business owners, as well decision-makers in the provincial government and industry bodies. The individual provincial barometers compile detailed main and sub indices for the following sectors: 1. Growth Index (measures real growth in activity levels in all individual sectors) 2. Economic Stress (measures the negative factors in the economy, and is an indication of how difficult it is to do business in the province). 3. The main provincial barometer 4. Agriculture 5. Construction 6. Financial and business services 7. Electricity 8. Manufacturing 9. Transport 10. Trade (includes retail and wholesale, as well as tourism and entertainment)
The Growth Index is compiled through the consolidation of the performance of all the individual economic sectors. This growth index does not take into account the negative elements in the provincial economy. The Economic Stress Index measures these negative stresses. The provincial barometer is compiled by deflating the Growth Index with the Economic Stress Index.
Sectors
Western Cape
Gauteng
Eastern Cape
Free State
Agriculture Mining Electricity Manufacturing Construction Trade Transport Financial, real estate and business services Economic Stress Total
11 2 1 10 11 27 5 25
0 1 1 10 11 27 2 18
9 0 1 10 11 29 5 18
10 6 1 10 11 29 2 18
9 101
9 79
6 89
4 91
The first table depicts the actual time series and their respective sources. The second shows how many individual time series are used to compile the individual provincial barometers.
For more information about the Sake24 provincial barometers, contact Mike Schussler on 011 781 9980 or Ryk van Niekerk, assistant editor of Sake24, at 021 406 2079 or [email protected].
www.economists.co.za
www.economists.co.za
www.economists.co.za
1.1
Gauteng Barometer
115
110
Gauteng Barometer 105
100
95
90
85
1.2
Gauteng Growth Index
125
Gauteng Growth Index 120 115 110 105 100 95 90
www.economists.co.za
1.3
Gauteng Economic Stress Index
125
Gauteng Economic Stress Index 120 115 110 105 100 95 90
1.4
Gauteng Mining Index
www.economists.co.za
110 100
Gauteng Mining Index
90 80 70 60 50 40
1.5
Gauteng Manufacturing Index 120
Gauteng Manufacturing Index 115 110 105 100 95 90 85
1.6
Gauteng Construction Index
www.economists.co.za
130
Gauteng Construction Index
120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50
1.7
Gauteng Transport and Communication Index
150
Gauteng Transport and Communication Index
140
130
120
110
100
90
1.8
Gauteng Electricity Index
www.economists.co.za
120
Gauteng Electricity Index 115
110
105
100
95
90
1.9
Gauteng Trade Index 150 145
Gauteng Trade Index
140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85
www.economists.co.za
1.10 Gauteng Financial Services Index 130 125
Gauteng Financial Services Index
120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80
1.11 Government 170 160
Gauteng Goverment Index
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80
www.economists.co.za
1.12 Gauteng Business Barometer (% Change y/y) 20% 15%
Gauteng Barometer Index (% Change YoY)
10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15%
1.13 Gauteng Growth Index (% Change y/y)
www.economists.co.za
20,0%
Gauteng Growth Index (% Change YoY)
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
-5,0%
-10,0%
-15,0%
1.14 Gauteng Stress Index (% Change y/y)
www.economists.co.za
15,0%
Gauteng Economic Stress Index (% Change YoY) 10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
-5,0%
-10,0%
-15,0%
How do Sake24 provincial barometers work? The Sake24 provincial barometers measure business activity levels of four leading South African private sector provinces. These provinces are Gauteng, Western Cape, Eastern Cape and the Free State. The barometer for an individual province consists of a set of sub indices that not only measures the overall performance of the province, but also individual economic subsectors. The barometers were developed by renowned economist Mike Schüssler. They are unique as they are developed specifically for an individual province. The information is sourced from a comprehensive range of individual time series that is specific to the particular
Mortgages registered
Property24
Interest rates Time series Inflation Building statistics (comprehensive residential and Manufacturing industrial) Mining Cement sales
Reserve Bank Source StatsSA StatsSA StatsSA StatsSA CNCI
Retail sales Wholesale sales Electricity generated Cargo handling Vehicle sales (in all segments) Airport arrivals at international airports Fuel sales (comprehensive info for all sectors) Property transfers Instalment sales Asset management Civil debt judgements
StatsSA StatsSA StatsSA NPA Naamsa Acsa Sapia Property24 Reserve Bank ACI StatsSA
The provincial barometers are developed specifically for Unemployment (indexing of job advertisements in StatsSA/Media24 individual newspapers) provinces. They are compiled from numerous statisticalvolumes time series in variousin economic sectors. Advertising (total advertising all Media24These mainstream newspapers) time seriesradio andand their sources include:
www.economists.co.za
province. These time series is sourced from various sources, including Stats SA, industry bodies and individual companies. The data is deflated and seasonally adjusted and their contribution to the provincial indices weighted to their actual contribution. The individual provincial barometers do not measure economic growth, but highlights how the private sector economy reacts to changing market conditions. It highlights the immediate health of the provincial economy and its underlying economic sectors.
The information is published monthly and will provide key information to all entrepreneurs and business owners, as well decision-makers in the provincial government and industry bodies. The individual provincial barometers compile detailed main and sub indices for the following sectors: 1. Growth Index (measures real growth in activity levels in all individual sectors) 2. Economic Stress (measures the negative factors in the economy, and is an indication of how difficult it is to do business in the province). 3. The main provincial barometer 4. Agriculture 5. Construction 6. Financial and business services 7. Electricity 8. Manufacturing 9. Transport 10. Trade (includes retail and wholesale, as well as tourism and entertainment)
The Growth Index is compiled through the consolidation of the performance of all the individual economic sectors. This growth index does not take into account the negative elements in the provincial economy. The Economic Stress Index measures these negative stresses. The provincial barometer is compiled by deflating the Growth Index with the Economic Stress Index.
Sectors
Western Cape
Gauteng
Eastern Cape
Free State
Agriculture Mining Electricity Manufacturing Construction Trade Transport Financial, real estate and business services Economic Stress Total
11 2 1 10 11 27 5 25
0 1 1 10 11 27 2 18
9 0 1 10 11 29 5 18
10 6 1 10 11 29 2 18
9 101
9 79
6 89
4 91
The first table depicts the actual time series and their respective sources. The second shows how many individual time series are used to compile the individual provincial barometers.
For more information about the Sake24 provincial barometers, contact Mike Schussler on 011 781 9980 or Ryk van Niekerk, assistant editor of Sake24, at 021 406 2079 or [email protected].
www.economists.co.za
www.economists.co.za
