GCC Equity Monitor
Global Research Monthly Update Equity - GCC July, 2011
GCC Equity Monitor GCC Country Performance
GCC ROE & P/BV 24% 22%
Qatar
2011e ROE
20% 18%
Oman
16% UAE
14%
GCC KSA
12%
Kuwait
10% 0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
40%
2011e Earnings Growth
3M (%)
12M (%)
P/E*
P/BV*
DY (%)
Bahrain
-1.9%
-6.6%
-7.3%
11.4
1.0
8.6%
Kuwait
-4.5%
-11.4%
-17.9%
14.9
1.8
4.4%
Oman
-1.8%
-8.3%
-3.8%
10.1
1.5
5.3%
Qatar
0.8%
-1.3%
12.1%
10.6
2.0
5.8%
Saudi Arabia
-1.7%
-3.6%
5.0%
11.2
1.8
3.9%
UAE-Abu Dhabi
-2.4%
-2.1%
6.8%
8.2
1.2
4.4%
0.0%
-6.9%
4.1%
8.2
0.8
4.5%
Source: Global Research, Bloomberg, * 2011E
GCC PE & Earnings Grow th
Top Fundamental Picks
GCC Qatar
30% 25%
KSA
20% UAE
15%
Kuwait
10% 5% Oman 0% 6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
World & GCC Indices YTD 3.9%
-1.0% -0.6%0.0% -3.5%
-5.2%
-2.3%
-10.0% -10.5%
-10.4%
US
India
China
Egypt
Kuwait
Jordan
Bahrain
UAE-Abu Dhabi
KSA
UAE -Dubai
Savola Group Company (KSA), CMP: SAR25.7, Target Price: SAR34.0 SAVOLA Group is expected to operate more than 150 retail outlets by the end of 2013. We believe the expansion in retail will remain key factor to bring more synergies in operations where the company is able to easily market its other food products. Global Research believes that the company could utilize the customers’ brand loyalty of brands like Herfy, Almarai, Afia to support its overall business growth: where PAT is expected to increase 2010-14CAGR of 7.3%.
-9.8%
-22.4%
Oman
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (UAE), CMP: AED3.05, Target Price: AED3.91 ADCB tops our favorite list given that it is expected to overcome its asset quality issues which were dragging its price down. Albeit we still see high provisions we believe that the bank will see major relief from previous levels. Despite a recent run up in prices and doubling of price over the last 52 weeks, the stock still offers the lowest trading multiples although a significant improvement in operating ratios is anticipated.
16.0
2011e P/E
Qatar
1M (%)
UAE-Dubai
2011e P/BV
35%
Country
Qatar Electricity & Water Company: (QAT), CMP:QAR139, Target Price: QAR166.5 QEWC is actively seeking greenfield & acquisition opportunities in various regions across the world to expand its generation portfolio. Recently QEWC & other consortium partners signed an agreement to start construction on Sur power project in Oman. The IPP will provide 2,000 MW of power. The project will come on stream in two phases, 433 MW scheduled to be available from April 2013 & the remaining 1,567 MW by April 2014.
So urce: Glo bal Research, B lo o mberg
Top Technical Picks National Bank of Abu Dhabi: (UAE), CMP: AED11.20 The overall outlook of the stock remains positive and the recent stalling action does not indicate an end to the bullish momentum. On the bullish side, a cross over June’s high at AED11.90 will validate a higher-high and higher-low pattern, aiming for the target price at AED12.80 (76.4% level of the Fibonacci Retracements from AED15.29 – AED4.77) before AED14.00. Global Research [email protected] Tel.: (965) 22951270
Global Investment House www.globalinv.net
Yanbu Cement Company: (KSA), CMP: SAR58.25 The stock eased down after recording new high for this phase at SAR60.25. However, the price may continue to witness further weaknesses on the coming period due to the overbought status of the weekly “RSI” indicator but overall outlook remains positive. Knowing that a breaking above SAR60.25 would call for additional correction upwards, targeting SAR67.20 (50% level of the Fibonacci Retracements from SAR100.25 – SAR34.18) and SAR75.00 (61.8% level).
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by country Global Research - GCC Universe
Bloomberg Ticker
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
UAE Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Arkan Building Materials Company Dana Gas Emirates Telecommunications Corporation First Gulf Bank Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company National Bank of Abu Dhabi Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Abu Dhabi National Energy Union National Bank Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Air Arabia Arabtec Holding PJSC Dubai Financial Market Drake & Scull International Emirates NBD SALAMA Aramex Dubai Islamic Bank Sharjah Islamic Bank Emaar Properties Aldar Properties Sorouh Real Estate Total
ADCB UH ARKAN UH DANA UH ETISALAT UH FGB UH FCEM KK GCEM KK NBAD UH RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH TAQA UH UNB UH ADIB UH AIRARABI UH ARTC UH DFM UH DSI UH EMIRATES UH SALAMA UH ARMX UH DIB UH NBS UH EMAAR UH ALDAR UH SOROUH UH
4,646.4 581.3 1,114.0 22,062.5 6,738.2 105.6 198.7 8,751.3 110.7 356.1 2,118.5 2,384.8 2,092.3 852.5 553.5 2,526.5 555.5 6,506.3 233.9 713.5 2,130.4 581.1 4,776.0 980.7 879.0
1.7% -4.7% 1.6% -5.4% -7.3% -7.3% -15.4% 1.8% 2.4% -3.8% 4.2% -3.0% -1.2% 1.2% 6.3% -0.9% -2.0% 3.6% 4.4% 1.7% 2.5% -1.1% -4.6% 0.8% 0.0%
4.5% -23.3% -8.8% 1.4% -9.3% -9.3% -35.3% -0.4% -18.4% -13.3% -17.8% -2.5% -0.9% -9.4% -4.9% -15.3% -10.8% 7.5% -8.8% -1.3% -7.6% -1.1% -12.5% -18.3% -13.4%
82.6% -3.9% -20.5% 7.4% 24.5% 24.5% -45.8% 20.9% 16.7% 8.2% 12.9% 33.0% 34.9% -12.2% -3.4% -20.5% 10.2% 82.4% -10.2% 7.9% 10.0% 15.3% -8.9% -49.2% -29.3%
5.3 55.4 10.2 11.3 7.1 76.7 17.7 8.8 149.8 4.8 5.5 5.9 5.2 10.7 9.5 99.9 9.7 5.7 7.7 12.3 6.6 7.5 10.2 5.3 4.6 8.23
0.9 1.3 0.5 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.12
18.9% 2.4% 4.8% 17.9% 16.9% 0.5% 2.8% 17.0% 0.4% 11.2% 14.2% 14.3% 23.5% 5.4% 7.7% 1.2% 8.1% 13.5% 6.8% 11.7% 13.1% 6.7% 5.2% 10.2% 10.4% 14.2%
1.7% 1.5% 3.3% 9.2% 2.4% 0.3% 2.5% 1.6% 0.3% 4.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 4.4% 2.5% 1.2% 4.1% 1.4% 2.8% 9.0% 1.4% 1.7% 2.8% 1.6% 5.2% 2.2%
3.05 1.22 0.62 10.25 16.50 0.79 66.00 11.20 0.84 1.76 1.25 3.51 3.25 0.67 1.36 1.16 0.94 4.30 0.71 1.79 2.06 0.88 2.88 1.25 1.23
3.92 1.26 0.86 11.66 21.43 0.75 U/R 13.45 0.74 2.31 U/R 4.70 U/R 0.73 1.36 0.85 1.28 5.07 1.03 2.06 U/R U/R 3.91 1.51 1.52
Kuwait Mobile Telecommunications Company National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait Finance House Commercial Bank of Kuwait National Mobile Telecommunications Company Jazeera Airways Company Al Rai Media Group Burgan Bank Total
ZAIN KK NBK KK KFIN KK CBK KK NMTC KK JAZEERA KK ALRAI KK BURG KK
15,635.0 15,441.9 8,675.9 3,868.7 3,695.9 185.5 68.3 2,670.4
-4.8% -6.9% -12.0% -5.7% 2.0% 16.2% n/a -2.9%
-17.5% -14.3% -18.5% -10.8% -1.0% 91.7% n/a -10.0%
-3.5% 7.0% -7.0% -6.3% 12.0% 105.4% n/a 50.7%
13.4 13.5 23.6 24.3 10.8 11.0 7.7 16.6 14.94
1.8 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.2 2.5 0.7 1.6 1.83
12.6% 15.2% 8.1% 9.1% 14.0% 25.9% 9.5% 9.9% 12.3%
8.6% 2.3% 0.8% 1.1% 7.5% 2.6% 5.2% 1.0% 2.3%
0.99 1.08 0.88 0.83 2.00 0.23 0.08 0.50
1.00 1.17 0.96 0.79 2.35 0.24 0.13 0.55
Oman Oman Telecommunications Company Bank Muscat Bank Dhofar National Bank of Oman Raysut Cement Company Oman International Bank Oman Cement Company Ahli Bank Total
OTEL OM BKMB OM BKDB OM NBOB OM RCCI OM OIBB OM OCOI OM ABOB OM
2,057.1 2,911.8 1,378.8 904.1 543.4 636.1 459.8 545.4
-3.7% -2.4% 2.3% 0.6% -1.6% -3.4% -4.5% 0.4%
-5.2% -6.2% -10.6% 3.2% -4.6% -3.2% -9.3% -8.4%
-2.9% 4.2% -5.4% 2.0% -8.9% 1.3% -16.1% 8.4%
7.3 10.1 13.9 11.7 11.6 13.5 10.3 10.4 10.07
1.6 1.3 2.0 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.47
22.7% 13.2% 15.7% 11.0% 16.8% 10.4% 11.5% 17.9% 15.2%
15.5% 1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 9.0% 1.5% 10.1% 2.4% 2.8%
1.06 0.72 0.58 0.32 1.05 0.25 0.54 0.26
1.18 0.81 0.36 0.32 1.02 0.21 0.60 0.26
July - 2011
Upside / (Downside) 28.5% 3.3% 38.7% 13.8% 29.9% -5.4% U/R 20.1% -11.9% 31.3% U/R 33.9% U/R 8.3% 0.0% -26.7% 36.6% 17.9% 45.1% 15.1% U/R U/R 35.8% 20.8% 23.6%
Rating
STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY HOLD U/R STRONG BUY SELL STRONG BUY U/R STRONG BUY U/R HOLD HOLD SELL STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY BUY U/R U/R STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY
1.0% HOLD 8.2% HOLD 9.1% HOLD -5.1% HOLD 17.5% BUY 2.6% HOLD 58.8% STRONG BUY 11.7% BUY
11.6% 11.2% -37.7% 0.8% -2.5% -15.6% 12.1% -1.4%
BUY BUY SELL HOLD HOLD SELL BUY HOLD
2
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Bloomberg Ticker
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
Qatar Qatar National Bank Industries Qatar Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar Qatar Islamic Bank The Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar Electricity & Water Company Doha Bank Qatar Insurance Company Al Rayan Bank Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Qatar National Cement Company Total Saudi Arabia Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Al Rajhi Bank Saudi Telecom Company Samba Financial Group Saudi Electricity Company Riyad Bank The Saudi British Bank Banque Saudi Fransi Etihad Etisalat Company Arab National Bank Alinma Bank Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Almarai Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company Savola Group Company Saudi Hollandi Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Bank Al Jazira Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Qassim Cement Company Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Eastern Province Cement Company Arabian Cement Co. Saudi Cement Company Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company Saudi Research and Marketing Group Bank Al Bilad Maaden Dar Alarkan Emaar Economic City Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Al Khodari Sons Company Mohammad Al-Mojil Group Total Bahrain Bahrain Telecommunications Company
QNBK QD IQCD QD QTEL QD VFQS QD QIBK QD CBQK QD QEWS QD DHBK QD QATI QD MARK QD QGRI QD QNCD QD
SABIC AB RJHI AB STC AB SAMBA AB SECO AB RIBL AB SABB AB BSFR AB EEC AB ARNB AB ALINMA AB SAFCO AB AlMARAI AB YANSAB AB SAVOLA AB AAAL AB SIBC AB BJAZ AB SIPCHEM AB SADAFCO AB QACCO AB YACCO AB YNCCO AB EACCO AB ARCCO AB SACCO AB ALHOKAIR AB RESEARCH AB ALBI AB MAADEN AB ALARKAN AB EMAAR AB SRECO AB ALKHODAR AB MMG AB
BATELCO BI
24,718.7 21,160.8 7,559.3 1,792.3 5,042.0 5,042.2 3,817.2 3,031.2 1,661.4 4,926.7 516.2 1,515.6
0.4% 2.9% 2.2% -1.3% -0.6% 2.9% -3.6% 3.9% 1.8% 2.9% -7.5% -3.1%
3.7% -4.9% -0.7% -3.0% -3.5% 1.4% -5.7% 3.3% -0.2% 3.6% -3.4% 0.4%
49.3% 46.0% 13.2% -2.3% 10.8% 15.3% 38.6% 30.1% 26.7% 69.6% 15.6% 66.2%
12.4 8.1 9.9 na 13.2 11.0 9.1 9.3 8.8 13.1 14.3 11.8 10.65
2.4 2.7 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.5 3.0 1.9 1.6 2.4 0.7 2.4 2.05
24.2% 37.6% 13.9% -5.6% 15.3% 14.3% 36.6% 21.5% 19.2% 21.8% 5.2% 20.9% 21.7%
2.9% 26.9% 2.7% -4.7% 2.5% 2.6% 6.8% 2.4% 9.3% 3.4% 3.3% 17.4% 4.3%
141.50 140.10 156.40 7.72 77.70 74.20 139.00 53.40 81.40 23.92 42.00 112.40
160.81 179.87 177.56 7.78 85.37 86.69 166.55 59.77 81.70 25.57 42.30 117.90
13.6% 28.4% 13.5% 0.8% 9.9% 16.8% 19.8% 11.9% 0.4% 6.9% 0.7% 4.9%
BUY STRONG BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD
82,195.6 28,798.5 18,772.3 11,663.4 14,832.3 9,919.5 8,459.5 8,369.5 9,986.1 6,720.8 3,919.8 11,516.1 5,611.7 7,439.6 3,426.5 2,531.2 2,698.4 1,355.9 2,043.4 334.5 1,571.9 2,195.9 1,630.9 1,105.3 896.0 2,458.1 933.3 360.5 1,435.9 6,462.3 2,102.3 1,620.6 748.8 759.3 693.3
0.7% 0.3% -1.9% -1.3% -2.9% 7.2% 0.7% -0.5% 4.3% 0.7% -1.5% -5.5% -3.2% 4.9% -4.6% -0.7% -2.4% -7.6% -3.0% -13.8% -4.4% -4.3% 5.9% -2.6% -5.0% -2.8% 5.5% -6.1% -6.8% -3.7% -7.0% -8.9% -2.3% -4.6% -8.4%
-6.1% -4.6% -1.7% -11.5% -3.3% -2.5% -7.0% -5.0% 2.4% -11.4% -3.0% -0.1% -2.1% -5.1% -6.7% -5.9% -3.4% -12.4% -4.1% -3.5% 9.6% 8.0% 30.9% 4.8% 5.7% 10.6% 2.0% -5.8% -3.0% -5.1% -18.9% 1.4% 3.3% 10.1% 0.4%
23.2% -6.1% -1.6% -16.7% -0.7% -8.9% -3.4% -1.1% 5.8% 1.1% -11.3% 36.0% -4.3% 32.3% -23.5% -16.3% 8.9% 0.6% 6.2% 10.4% 3.2% 25.5% 43.4% 12.4% 18.2% 48.7% 14.5% -15.0% -8.2% 40.9% -37.6% -16.4% 9.9% n/a 22.5%
9.5 13.8 8.9 9.4 22.7 12.0 13.2 10.1 7.8 11.5 69.2 12.8 15.4 8.5 13.6 9.7 11.3 24.8 12.9 9.7 10.9 11.7 14.1 12.1 7.8 12.0 10.1 14.8 15.2 45.7 6.8 na 23.8 14.1 20.6 11.16
1.6 3.7 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.6 0.9 5.3 3.1 3.1 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.2 2.5 2.6 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 3.9 1.6 1.75
18.2% 26.3% 14.2% 17.3% 4.8% 10.7% 15.3% 16.8% 27.9% 14.0% 1.4% 44.1% 21.2% 40.0% 11.1% 14.5% 10.4% 4.2% 9.5% 18.6% 28.5% 21.8% 16.8% 16.0% 16.0% 21.8% 28.2% 5.8% 10.8% 2.8% 7.9% -1.4% 3.7% 30.7% 7.9% 15.8%
9.7% 4.0% 6.8% 2.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.4% 13.9% 1.8% 0.6% 37.9% 10.1% 13.5% 5.1% 1.8% 1.7% 0.6% 4.8% 12.8% 26.0% 19.2% 10.1% 14.4% 10.1% 16.3% 16.3% 4.2% 1.5% 1.5% 4.9% -1.1% 3.3% 10.9% 4.0% 4.4%
102.75 72.00 35.20 48.60 13.35 24.80 42.30 43.40 53.50 29.60 9.80 172.75 91.50 49.60 25.70 28.70 18.40 16.95 20.90 38.60 65.50 61.00 58.25 48.20 42.00 60.25 50.00 16.90 17.95 26.20 7.30 7.15 23.40 67.00 20.80
122.81 70.60 41.00 56.60 13.88 27.50 41.50 49.50 68.50 30.70 10.90 178.60 91.6 60.77 34.00 31.10 19.50 19.00 28.33 43.88 71.90 65.60 54.40 42.80 55.00 63.00 49.20 15.80 19.80 28.30 9.75 7.20 28.95 73.70 25.20
19.5% -1.9% 16.5% 16.5% 4.0% 10.9% -1.9% 14.1% 28.0% 3.7% 11.2% 3.4% 0.2% 22.5% 32.3% 8.4% 6.0% 12.1% 35.6% 13.7% 9.8% 7.5% -6.6% -11.2% 31.0% 4.6% -1.6% -6.5% 10.3% 8.0% 33.6% 0.7% 23.7% 10.0% 21.2%
BUY HOLD BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY STRONG BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD BUY STRONG BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY
1,604.2
-1.8%
-9.1%
-10.0%
8.2
1.1
14.1%
11.1%
0.42
0.48
14.3%
BUY
* All price in local currency as of 31 July 2011 Source: Bloomberg & Global Research
July - 2011
3
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
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Bloomberg Ticker
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
Cement & Building Material Arkan Building Materials Company Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Raysut Cement Company Oman Cement Company Qatar National Cement Company Qassim Cement Company Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Eastern Province Cement Company Arabian Cement Co. Saudi Cement Company Total
ARKAN UH FCEM KK GCEM UH RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH RCCI OM OCOI OM QNCD QD QACCO AB YACCO AB YNCCO AB EACCO AB ARCCO AB SACCO AB
581.3 105.6 198.7 110.7 356.1 543.4 459.8 1,515.6 1,571.9 2,195.9 1,630.9 1,105.3 896.0 2,458.1
-4.7% -7.3% -15.4% 2.4% -3.8% -1.6% -4.5% -3.1% -4.4% -4.3% 5.9% -2.6% -5.0% -2.8%
-23.3% -9.3% -35.3% -18.4% -13.3% -4.6% -9.3% 0.4% 9.6% 8.0% 30.9% 4.8% 5.7% 10.6%
-3.9% 24.5% -45.8% 16.7% 8.2% -8.9% -16.1% 66.2% 3.2% 25.5% 43.4% 12.4% 18.2% 48.7%
55.4 76.7 17.7 149.8 4.8 11.6 10.3 11.8 10.9 11.7 14.1 12.1 7.8 12.0 11.66
1.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.2 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.2 2.5 1.87
2.4% 0.5% 2.8% 0.4% 11.2% 16.8% 11.5% 20.9% 28.5% 21.8% 16.8% 16.0% 16.0% 21.8% 15.6%
1.5% 0.3% 2.5% 0.3% 4.9% 9.0% 10.1% 17.4% 26.0% 19.2% 10.1% 14.4% 10.1% 16.3% 10.9%
1.22 0.79 66.00 0.84 1.76 1.05 0.54 112.40 65.50 61.00 58.25 48.20 42.00 60.25
1.26 0.75 U/R 0.74 2.31 1.02 0.60 117.90 71.90 65.60 54.40 42.80 55.00 63.00
3.3% HOLD -5.4% HOLD U/R U/R -11.9% SELL 31.3% STRONG BUY -2.5% HOLD 12.1% BUY 4.9% HOLD 9.8% HOLD 7.5% HOLD -6.6% HOLD -11.2% SELL 31.0% STRONG BUY 4.6% HOLD
Insurance SALAMA Qatar Insurance Company Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Total
SALAMA UH QATI QD QGRI QD
233.9 1,661.4 516.2
4.4% 1.8% -7.5%
-8.8% -0.2% -3.4%
-10.2% 26.7% 15.6%
7.7 8.8 14.3 8.17
0.5 1.6 0.7 1.37
6.8% 19.2% 5.2% 16.0%
2.8% 9.3% 3.3% 6.5%
0.71 81.40 42.00
1.03 81.70 42.30
45.1% STRONG BUY 0.4% HOLD 0.7% HOLD
Telecom Emirates Telecommunications Corporation Bahrain Telecommunications Company Mobile Telecommunications Company National Mobile Telecommunications Company Oman Telecommunications Company Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar Saudi Telecom Company Etihad Etisalat Company Total
ETISALAT UH BATELCO BI ZAIN KK NMTC KK OTEL OM QTEL QD VFQS QD STC AB EEC AB
22,062.5 1,604.2 15,635.0 3,695.9 2,057.1 7,559.3 1,792.3 18,772.3 9,986.1
-5.4% -1.8% -4.8% 2.0% -3.7% 2.2% -1.3% -1.9% 4.3%
1.4% -9.1% -17.5% -1.0% -5.2% -0.7% -3.0% -1.7% 2.4%
7.4% -10.0% 0.0% 12.0% -2.9% 13.2% -2.3% -1.6% 5.8%
11.3 8.2 13.4 10.8 7.3 9.9 na 8.9 7.8 10.42
2.0 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.2 2.0 1.66
17.9% 14.1% 12.6% 14.0% 22.7% 13.9% -5.6% 14.2% 27.9% 15.3%
9.2% 11.1% 8.6% 7.5% 15.5% 2.7% -4.7% 6.8% 13.9% 7.0%
10.25 0.42 0.99 2.00 1.06 156.40 7.72 35.20 53.50
11.66 0.48 1.00 2.35 1.18 177.56 7.78 41.00 68.50
13.8% BUY 14.3% BUY 1.0% HOLD 17.5% BUY 11.6% BUY 13.5% BUY 0.8% HOLD 16.5% BUY 28.0% STRONG BUY
Petrochemicals Dana Gas Industries Qatar Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Total
DANA UH IQCD QD SABIC AB SAFCO AB YANSAB AB SIPCHEM AB
1,114.0 21,160.8 82,195.6 11,516.1 7,439.6 2,043.4
1.6% 2.9% 0.7% -5.5% 4.9% -3.0%
-8.8% -4.9% -6.1% -0.1% -5.1% -4.1%
-20.5% 46.0% 23.2% 36.0% 32.3% 6.2%
10.2 8.1 9.5 12.8 8.5 12.9 9.44
0.5 2.7 1.6 5.3 3.1 1.2 2.17
4.8% 37.6% 18.2% 44.1% 40.0% 9.5% 21.2%
3.3% 26.9% 9.7% 37.9% 13.5% 4.8% 11.7%
0.62 140.10 102.75 172.75 49.60 20.90
0.86 179.87 122.81 178.60 60.77 28.33
38.7% 96.0% 19.5% 3.4% 22.5% 35.6%
July - 2011
STRONG BUY STRONG BUY BUY HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY
4
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector (cont) Global Research - GCC Universe Banks Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank First Gulf Bank National Bank of Abu Dhabi Union National Bank Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Emirates NBD Dubai Islamic Bank Sharjah Islamic Bank National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait Finance House Commercial Bank of Kuwait Burgan Bank Bank Muscat Bank Dhofar National Bank of Oman Ahli Bank Qatar National Bank Qatar Islamic Bank The Commercial Bank of Qatar Doha Bank Al Rayan Bank Al Rajhi Bank Samba Financial Group Riyad Bank The Saudi British Bank Banque Saudi Fransi Arab National Bank Saudi Hollandi Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Bank Al Bilad Alinma Bank Bank Al Jazira Total
Bloomberg Ticker
ADCB UH FGB UH NBAD UH UNB UH ADIB UH EMIRATES UH DIB UH NBS UH NBK KK KFIN KK CBK KK BURG KK BKMB OM BKDB OM NBOB OM ABOB OM QNBK QD QIBK QD CBQK QD DHBK QD MARK QD RJHI AB SAMBA AB RIBL AB SABB AB BSFR AB ARNB AB AAAL AB SIBC AB ALBI AB ALINMA AB BJAZ AB
Utilities Abu Dhabi National Energy Qatar Electricity & Water Company Saudi Electricity Company Total
TAQA UH QEWS QD SECO AB
Transportation and Logistics Aramex Air Arabia Jazeera Airways Company Total
ARMX UH AIRARABI UH JAZEERA KK
July - 2011
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
4,646.4 6,738.2 8,751.3 2,384.8 2,092.3 6,506.3 2,130.4 581.1 15,441.9 8,675.9 3,868.7 2,670.4 2,911.8 1,378.8 904.1 545.4 24,718.7 5,042.0 5,042.2 3,031.2 4,926.7 28,798.5 11,663.4 9,919.5 8,459.5 8,369.5 6,720.8 2,531.2 2,698.4 1,435.9 3,919.8 1,355.9
1.7% -7.3% 1.8% -3.0% -1.2% 3.6% 2.5% -1.1% -6.9% -12.0% -5.7% -2.9% -2.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% -0.6% 2.9% 3.9% 2.9% 0.3% -1.3% 7.2% 0.7% -0.5% 0.7% -0.7% -2.4% -6.8% -1.5% -7.6%
4.5% -9.3% -0.4% -2.5% -0.9% 7.5% -7.6% -1.1% -14.3% -18.5% -10.8% -10.0% -6.2% -10.6% 3.2% -8.4% 3.7% -3.5% 1.4% 3.3% 3.6% -4.6% -11.5% -2.5% -7.0% -5.0% -11.4% -5.9% -3.4% -3.0% -3.0% -12.4%
82.6% 24.5% 20.9% 33.0% 34.9% 82.4% 10.0% 15.3% 7.0% -7.0% -6.3% 50.7% 4.2% -5.4% 2.0% 8.4% 49.3% 10.8% 15.3% 30.1% 69.6% -6.1% -16.7% -8.9% -3.4% -1.1% 1.1% -16.3% 8.9% -8.2% -11.3% 0.6%
5.3 7.1 8.8 5.9 5.2 5.7 6.6 7.5 13.5 23.6 24.3 16.6 10.1 13.9 11.7 10.4 12.4 13.2 11.0 9.3 13.1 13.8 9.4 12.0 13.2 10.1 11.5 9.7 11.3 15.2 69.2 24.8 10.84
0.9 1.1 1.4 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.3 2.0 1.3 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.7 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.86
18.9% 16.9% 17.0% 14.3% 23.5% 13.5% 13.1% 6.7% 15.2% 8.1% 9.1% 9.9% 13.2% 15.7% 11.0% 17.9% 24.2% 15.3% 14.3% 21.5% 21.8% 26.3% 17.3% 10.7% 15.3% 16.8% 14.0% 14.5% 10.4% 10.8% 1.4% 4.2% 16.2%
1.7% 2.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 3.4% 4.0% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.4% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 2.0%
3.05 16.50 11.20 3.51 3.25 4.30 2.06 0.88 1.08 0.88 0.83 0.50 0.72 0.58 0.32 0.26 141.50 77.70 74.20 53.40 23.92 72.00 48.60 24.80 42.30 43.40 29.60 28.70 18.40 17.95 9.80 16.95
3.92 21.43 13.45 4.70 U/R 5.07 U/R U/R 1.17 0.96 0.79 0.55 0.81 0.36 0.32 0.26 160.81 85.37 86.69 59.77 25.57 70.60 56.60 27.50 41.50 49.50 30.70 31.10 19.50 19.80 10.90 19.00
28.5% 29.9% 20.1% 33.9% U/R 17.9% U/R U/R 8.2% 9.1% -5.1% 11.7% 11.2% -37.7% 0.8% -1.4% 13.6% 9.9% 16.8% 11.9% 6.9% -1.9% 16.5% 10.9% -1.9% 14.1% 3.7% 8.4% 6.0% 10.3% 11.2% 12.1%
STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY U/R BUY U/R U/R HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY SELL HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY
2,118.5 3,817.2 14,832.3
4.2% -3.6% -2.9%
-17.8% -5.7% -3.3%
12.9% 38.6% -0.7%
5.5 9.1 22.7 14.23
0.7 3.0 1.1 1.21
14.2% 36.6% 4.8% 8.3%
1.4% 6.8% 1.2% 1.7%
1.25 139.00 13.35
U/R 166.55 13.88
U/R 19.8% 4.0%
U/R BUY HOLD
713.5 852.5 185.5
1.7% 1.2% 16.2%
-1.3% -9.4% 91.7%
7.9% -12.2% 105.4%
12.3 10.7 11.0 11.30
1.4 0.6 2.5 0.87
11.7% 5.4% 25.9% 7.6%
9.0% 4.4% 2.6% 5.0%
1.79 0.67 0.23
2.06 0.73 0.24
15.1% 8.3% 2.6%
BUY HOLD HOLD
5
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector (cont) Global Research - GCC Universe
Bloomberg Ticker
Construction Contractors Arabtec Holding Drake & Scull International Al Khodari Sons Company Mohammad Al-Mojil Group Total
ARTC UH DSI UH ALKHODAR AB MMG AB
Food & Agriculture Almarai Company Savola Group Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Total
AlMARAI AB SAVOLA AB SADAFCO AB
Real Estate Dar Alarkan Emaar Economic City Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Emaar Properties Aldar Properties Sorouh Real Estate Total Others Dubai Financial Market Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company Maaden Saudi Research and Marketing Group Al Rai Media Group Total
ALARKAN AB EMAAR AB SRECO AB EMAAR UH ALDAR UH SOROUH UH
DFM UH ALHOKAIR AB MAADEN AB RESEARCH AB ALRAI KK
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
553.5 555.5 759.3 693.3
6.3% -2.0% -4.6% -8.4%
-4.9% -10.8% 10.1% 0.4%
-3.4% 10.2% n/a 22.5%
9.5 9.7 14.1 20.6 9.57
0.7 0.8 3.9 1.6 0.78
7.7% 8.1% 30.7% 7.9% 7.9%
2.5% 4.1% 10.9% 4.0% 3.1%
1.36 0.94 67.00 20.80
1.36 1.28 73.70 25.20
0.0% 36.6% 10.0% 21.2%
HOLD STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY
5,611.7 3,426.5 334.5
-3.2% -4.6% -13.8%
-2.1% -6.7% -3.5%
-4.3% -23.5% 10.4%
15.4 13.6 9.7 14.39
3.1 1.5 1.7 2.33
21.2% 11.1% 18.6% 15.6%
10.1% 5.1% 12.8% 7.4%
91.50 25.70 38.60
91.65 34.00 43.88
0.2% 32.3% 13.7%
HOLD STRONG BUY BUY
2,102.3 1,620.6 748.8 4,776.0 980.7 879.0
-7.0% -8.9% -2.3% -4.6% 0.8% 0.0%
-18.9% 1.4% 3.3% -12.5% -18.3% -13.4%
-37.6% -16.4% 9.9% -8.9% -49.2% -29.3%
6.8 na 23.8 10.2 5.3 4.6 14.16
0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.68
7.9% -1.4% 3.7% 5.2% 10.2% 10.4% 4.7%
4.9% -1.1% 3.3% 2.8% 1.6% 5.2% 3.3%
7.30 7.15 23.40 2.88 1.25 1.23
9.75 7.20 28.95 3.91 1.51 1.52
33.6% 0.7% 23.7% 35.8% 20.8% 23.6%
STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY
2,526.5 933.3 6,462.3 360.5 68.3
-0.9% 5.5% -3.7% -6.1% n/a
-15.3% 2.0% -5.1% -5.8% n/a
-20.5% 14.5% 40.9% -15.0% n/a
99.9 10.1 45.7 14.8 7.7 36.31
1.2 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.33
1.2% 28.2% 2.8% 5.8% 9.5% 3.6%
1.2% 16.3% 1.5% 4.2% 5.2% 2.2%
1.16 50.00 26.20 16.90 0.08
0.85 49.20 28.30 15.80 0.13
-26.7% -1.6% 8.0% -6.5% 58.8%
SELL HOLD HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY
* All price in local currency as of 31 July 2011 * 1% added to the country risk premium for all the companies under coverage Source: Bloomberg & Global Research
July - 2011
6
July - 2011 5%
0%
Dividend Yield Top 10 Gainers in 1 month
15.0% 20%
12.0% 15%
9.0%
6.0%
10%
3.0% 5%
0.0%
0% Jazeera Airways Company
10%
Doha Bank
25%
Al Rajhi Bank
15%
Abu Dhabi National Energy
30%
20%
Etihad Etisalat Company
25%
Etihad Etisalat Company
45%
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company
30%
SALAMA
50%
35%
Qassim Cement Company
40%
Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company
Return on Assets (ROA)
Tawuniya
Abu Dhabi National Energy
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company
Arabtec Holding PJSC
Al Rai Media Group
Air Arabia
Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company
-
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company
0.1
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co.
0.2
1.00
Qatar Electricity & Water Company
Attractive P/E x
Yanbu Cement Company
0.3
2.00
Sharjah Islamic Bank
0.4
3.00
Industries Qatar
0.5
4.00
Arabtec Holding PJSC
0.6
5.00
SALAMA
0.7
6.00
Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company
Gulf Cement Company
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Oman Telecommunications Company
First Gulf Bank
Dubai Islamic Bank
Tawuniya
Union National Bank
Emirates NBD
Abu Dhabi National Energy
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank
0.8
7.00
Riyad Bank
Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company
Etihad Etisalat Company
Eastern Province Cement Company
Oman Telecommunications Company
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company
Saudi Cement Company
Qatar National Cement Company
Yamama Saudi Cement Company
Qassim Cement Company
Industries Qatar
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
8.00
Jazeera Airways Company
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
Qatar Insurance Company
Sharjah Islamic Bank
The Commercial Bank of Qatar
Saudi Telecom Company
Oman Cement Company
Bahrain Telecommunications Company
Doha Bank
Oman Telecommunications Company
Air Arabia
Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company
Global Research - GCC GCC Equity Monitor
Charts Attractive P/BV x
Return on Equity (ROE)
40%
35%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: Glob al Research, Bloomb erg
7
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
Technical Overview QE Index settled at 8,402.86 point. The index is still getting help from its rise above the support zone between 8,300 point – 8,250 point and the failure seen on the last two sessions to go below there could be an indication of a short-term buying intent. Meanwhile, the bulls are encountering a resistance line at 8,520 point, knowing that a successful close above there would call for limited downward move and additional strength, aiming for 8,600 point before April’s high at 8,843 point. However, only below the aforementioned support area will trigger 8,100 point. Weekly and daily “RSI” indicators are mixed as they show neutral and bullish signals, respectively. Strategy: Medium-term investors can only re-enter the market when the index sustains a close above 8,420 point, while long-term (50 weeks) investors can hold while the index is trading above 8,220 point. QE Index Index Name July 31, 2011 Sector
Index
Reuters’ RIC Last Trade (point)
8,402.86
MACD* RSI**
39.87 50.232
Moving Average (11 weeks) Moving Average (50 weeks)
8,420 8,220
Support (1) ^
8,250
Support (2) ^
8,100
Resistance(1) ^^
8,520
Resistance(2) ^^
8,843
Trend Status
Neutral to Bullish
Name of Index
Reuter' RIC
Close
Support
Weekly RSI 1
Resistance 2
1
2
Strategy Medium
Long
Moving Average 11
50
6,060.30
30.785
5,946
5,880
6,225
6,537 Bearish Bearish
6,200
6,560
6,392.13
45.265
6,300
6,000
6,535
6,800 Bearish Bearish
6,535
6,480
8,402.86
50.232
8,250
8,100
8,520
8,843 Neutral
Bullish
8,420
8,220
2,619.70
44.034
2,600
2,580
2,655
2,700 Bearish Bearish
2,685
2,685
1,517.58
43.574
1,500
1,472
1,567
1,600 Bearish Bearish
1,550
1,600
MSM 30 Index
5,808.30
28.759
5,700
5,600
6,000
6,085 Bearish Bearish
6,000
6,300
Bahrain All Share Index
1,291.66
24.235
1,270
1,250
1,322
1,350 Bearish Bearish
1,330
1,400
Kuwait Stock Exchange Price Index Saudi All Share Index QE Index Abu Dhabi Price Index Dubai Financial Market Index
Definitions: * A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. When the MACD is above zero, the short-term average is above the long-term average, which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true. ** A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. × Moving average. Which is an arithmetic way and a tool used purpose of easing the price fluctuations to clarify the trend and differentiate between primary or secondary trend of prices and the normal fluctuations. ^ The price level which, historically, a stock has had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock. ^^ The price at which a stock or market can trade, but can not exceed, for a certain period of time. The stock or market stops rising because sellers start to outnumber buyers. Disclaimer: This Technical Analysis is not an invitation to buy or sell, as it is “Global’s” opinion and speculation of future movement of the stock. Also it is not considered a sufficient material to relay on when taking financial and investment decisions. Investors should study the financial statement before taking any investment decision.
July - 2011
8
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
Disclosure The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure. Disclosure Checklist Company Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Abu Dhabi National Energy Ahli Bank Air Arabia Aldar Properties Al Rajhi Bank Al Rayan Bank Al Rai Media Group Al Khodari Sons Company Almarai Company Arab National Bank Arabian Cement Co. Arabtec Holding PJSC Aramex Arkan Building Materials Company Bahrain Telecommunications Company Bank Al Bilad Bank Dhofar Bank Muscat Banque Saudi Fransi Burgan Bank Commercial Bank of Kuwait Dana Gas Dar Alarkan Doha Bank Drake & Scull International Dubai Financial Market Eastern Province Cement Company Emaar Economic City Emaar Properties Emirates NBD Emirates Telecommunications Corporation Etihad Etisalat Company Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company First Gulf Bank Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company Industries Qatar Jazeera Airways Company Kuwait Finance House Maaden Mobile Telecommunications Company Mohammad Al-Mojil Group National Bank of Abu Dhabi National Bank of Kuwait National Bank of Oman
July - 2011
Recommendation
Bloomberg Ticker
Reuters Ticker
Price
Disclosure
STRONG BUY U/R HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY BUY SELL BUY BUY BUY HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY SELL SELL HOLD STRONG BUY BUY BUY STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD U/R STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD
ADCB UH TAQA UH ABOB OM AIRARABI UH ALDAR UH RJHI AB MARK QD ALRAI KK ALKHODAR AB AlMARAI AB ARNB AB ARCCO AB ARTC UH ARMX UH ARKAN UH BATELCO BI ALBI AB BKDB OM BKMB OM BSFR AB BURG KK CBK KK DANA UH ALARKAN AB DHBK QD DSI UH DFM UH EACCO AB EMAAR AB EMAAR UH EMIRATES UH ETISALAT UH EEC AB ALHOKAIR AB FGB UH FCEM KK GCEM UH IQCD QD JAZEERA KK KFIN KK MAADEN AB ZAIN KK MMG AB NBAD UH NBK KK NBOB OM
ADCB.AD TAQA.AD ABOB.OM AIRA.DU ALDR.AD 1120.SE MARK.QA ALRA.KW 1330.SE 2280.SE 1080.SE 3010.SE ARTC.DU ARMX.DU ARKN.AD BTEL.BH 1140.SE BDOF.OM BMAO.OM 1050.SE BURG.KW CBKK.KW DANA.AD 4300.SE DOBK.QA DSI.DU DFM.DU 3080.SE 4220.SE EMAR.DU ENBD.DU ETEL.AD 7020.SE 4240.SE FGB.AD FCEM.KW GCEM.AD IQCD.QA JAZK.KW KFIN.KW 1211.SE ZAIN.KW 1310.SE NBAD.AD NBKK.KW NBO.OM
AED 3.05 AED 1.25 OMR 0.262 SAR 0.671 AED 1.25 SAR 72 QAR 23.92 KWD 0.08 SAR 67 SAR 91.5 SAR 29.6 SAR 42 AED 1.36 AED 1.79 AED 1.22 BHD 0.42 SAR 17.95 OMR 0.58 OMR 0.724 SAR 43.4 KWD 0.495 KWD 0.83 AED 0.62 SAR 7.3 QAR 53.4 AED 0.937 AED 1.16 SAR 48.2 SAR 7.15 AED 2.88 AED 4.3 AED 10.25 SAR 53.5 SAR 50 AED 16.5 KWD 0.793 AED 66 QAR 140.1 KWD 0.23 KWD 0.88 SAR 26.2 KWD 0.99 SAR 20.8 AED 11.2 KWD 1.08 OMR 0.322
1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,11 1,10 1,10 1,10
9
Global Research - GCC National Mobile Telecommunications Company Oman Cement Company Oman Telecommunications Company Qassim Cement Company Qatar Electricity & Water Company Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Qatar Insurance Company Qatar Islamic Bank Qatar National Bank Qatar National Cement Company Qatar Telecom Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Raysut Cement Company Riyad Bank SALAMA Samba Financial Group Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Saudi Cement Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Saudi Electricity Company Saudi Hollandi Bank Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Saudi Research and Marketing Group Saudi Telecom Company Savola Group Company Sorouh Real Estate The Commercial Bank of Qatar The Saudi British Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Union National Bank Vodafone Qatar Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company
GCC Equity Monitor BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD BUY SELL STRONG BUY HOLD BUY STRONG BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY HOLD BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY
NMTC KK OCOI OM OTEL OM QACCO AB QEWS QD QGRI QD QATI QD QIBK QD QNBK QD QNCD QD QTEL QD RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH RCCI OM RIBL AB SALAMA UH SAMBA AB SAFCO AB SABIC AB SACCO AB SADAFCO AB SECO AB AAAL AB SIPCHEM AB SRECO AB RESEARCH AB STC AB SAVOLA AB SOROUH UH CBQK QD SABB AB SIBC AB UNB UH VFQS QD YACCO AB YNCCO AB YANSAB AB
NMTC.KW OCCO.OM OTL.OM 3040.SE QEWC.QA QGIR.QA QINS.QA QISB.QA QNBK.QA QANC.QA QTEL.QA RAKC.AD RKCE.AD RAYC.OM 1010.SE SALAMA.DU 1090.SE 2020.SE 2010.SE 3030.SE 2270.SE 5110.SE 1040.SE 2310.SE 4020.SE 4210.SE 4110.SE 2050.SE SOR.AD COMB.QA 1060.SE 1030.SE UNB.AD VFQS.QA 3020.SE 3060.SE 2290.SE
KWD 2 OMR 0.535 OMR 1.056 SAR 65.5 QAR 139 QAR 42 QAR 81.4 QAR 77.7 QAR 141.5 QAR 112.4 QAR 156.4 AED 0.84 AED 1.76 OMR 1.046 SAR 24.8 AED 0.71 SAR 48.6 SAR 172.75 SAR 102.75 SAR 60.25 SAR 38.6 SAR 13.35 SAR 28.7 SAR 20.9 SAR 23.4 SAR 16.9 SAR 35.2 SAR 25.7 AED 1.23 QAR 74.2 SAR 42.3 SAR 18.4 AED 3.51 QAR 7.72 SAR 61 SAR 58.25 SAR 49.6
1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10
1. Global Investment House did not receive and will not receive any compensation from the company or anyone else for the preparation of this report. 2. The company being researched holds more than 5% stake in Global Investment House. 3. Global Investment House makes a market in securities issued by this company. 4. Global Investment House acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 5. The author of or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 6. An employee of Global Investment House serves on the board of directors of this company. 7. Within the past year , Global Investment House has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it received fees. 8. Global Investment House has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 9. Global Investment House expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. 10. Please see special footnote below for other relevant disclosures.
July - 2011
10
Global Research - GCC Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions Global Rating Defination STRONG BUY Fair value of the stock is BUY Fair value of the stock is HOLD Fair value of the stock is SELL Fair value of the stock is
GCC Equity Monitor
>20% from the current market price between +10% and +20% from the current market price between +10% and -10% from the current market price < -10% from the current market price
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This material was also produced by Global Investment House - Saudia, a firm regulated by the Capital Market Authority of KSA. This document is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived by Global –Saudia from sources believed to be reliable, but Global- Saudia has not independently verified the contents of this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Global – Saudia accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Global shall have no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect of any inaccuracy in or omission from this or any other document prepared by Global- Saudia for, or sent by Global- Saudia to any person and any such person shall be responsible for conducting his own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this or other such document. Global investment house- Saudia is authorized and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. License Number 07067-37”.
July - 2011
11
GCC Equity Monitor GCC Country Performance
GCC ROE & P/BV 24% 22%
Qatar
2011e ROE
20% 18%
Oman
16% UAE
14%
GCC KSA
12%
Kuwait
10% 0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
40%
2011e Earnings Growth
3M (%)
12M (%)
P/E*
P/BV*
DY (%)
Bahrain
-1.9%
-6.6%
-7.3%
11.4
1.0
8.6%
Kuwait
-4.5%
-11.4%
-17.9%
14.9
1.8
4.4%
Oman
-1.8%
-8.3%
-3.8%
10.1
1.5
5.3%
Qatar
0.8%
-1.3%
12.1%
10.6
2.0
5.8%
Saudi Arabia
-1.7%
-3.6%
5.0%
11.2
1.8
3.9%
UAE-Abu Dhabi
-2.4%
-2.1%
6.8%
8.2
1.2
4.4%
0.0%
-6.9%
4.1%
8.2
0.8
4.5%
Source: Global Research, Bloomberg, * 2011E
GCC PE & Earnings Grow th
Top Fundamental Picks
GCC Qatar
30% 25%
KSA
20% UAE
15%
Kuwait
10% 5% Oman 0% 6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
World & GCC Indices YTD 3.9%
-1.0% -0.6%0.0% -3.5%
-5.2%
-2.3%
-10.0% -10.5%
-10.4%
US
India
China
Egypt
Kuwait
Jordan
Bahrain
UAE-Abu Dhabi
KSA
UAE -Dubai
Savola Group Company (KSA), CMP: SAR25.7, Target Price: SAR34.0 SAVOLA Group is expected to operate more than 150 retail outlets by the end of 2013. We believe the expansion in retail will remain key factor to bring more synergies in operations where the company is able to easily market its other food products. Global Research believes that the company could utilize the customers’ brand loyalty of brands like Herfy, Almarai, Afia to support its overall business growth: where PAT is expected to increase 2010-14CAGR of 7.3%.
-9.8%
-22.4%
Oman
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (UAE), CMP: AED3.05, Target Price: AED3.91 ADCB tops our favorite list given that it is expected to overcome its asset quality issues which were dragging its price down. Albeit we still see high provisions we believe that the bank will see major relief from previous levels. Despite a recent run up in prices and doubling of price over the last 52 weeks, the stock still offers the lowest trading multiples although a significant improvement in operating ratios is anticipated.
16.0
2011e P/E
Qatar
1M (%)
UAE-Dubai
2011e P/BV
35%
Country
Qatar Electricity & Water Company: (QAT), CMP:QAR139, Target Price: QAR166.5 QEWC is actively seeking greenfield & acquisition opportunities in various regions across the world to expand its generation portfolio. Recently QEWC & other consortium partners signed an agreement to start construction on Sur power project in Oman. The IPP will provide 2,000 MW of power. The project will come on stream in two phases, 433 MW scheduled to be available from April 2013 & the remaining 1,567 MW by April 2014.
So urce: Glo bal Research, B lo o mberg
Top Technical Picks National Bank of Abu Dhabi: (UAE), CMP: AED11.20 The overall outlook of the stock remains positive and the recent stalling action does not indicate an end to the bullish momentum. On the bullish side, a cross over June’s high at AED11.90 will validate a higher-high and higher-low pattern, aiming for the target price at AED12.80 (76.4% level of the Fibonacci Retracements from AED15.29 – AED4.77) before AED14.00. Global Research [email protected] Tel.: (965) 22951270
Global Investment House www.globalinv.net
Yanbu Cement Company: (KSA), CMP: SAR58.25 The stock eased down after recording new high for this phase at SAR60.25. However, the price may continue to witness further weaknesses on the coming period due to the overbought status of the weekly “RSI” indicator but overall outlook remains positive. Knowing that a breaking above SAR60.25 would call for additional correction upwards, targeting SAR67.20 (50% level of the Fibonacci Retracements from SAR100.25 – SAR34.18) and SAR75.00 (61.8% level).
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by country Global Research - GCC Universe
Bloomberg Ticker
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
UAE Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Arkan Building Materials Company Dana Gas Emirates Telecommunications Corporation First Gulf Bank Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company National Bank of Abu Dhabi Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Abu Dhabi National Energy Union National Bank Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Air Arabia Arabtec Holding PJSC Dubai Financial Market Drake & Scull International Emirates NBD SALAMA Aramex Dubai Islamic Bank Sharjah Islamic Bank Emaar Properties Aldar Properties Sorouh Real Estate Total
ADCB UH ARKAN UH DANA UH ETISALAT UH FGB UH FCEM KK GCEM KK NBAD UH RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH TAQA UH UNB UH ADIB UH AIRARABI UH ARTC UH DFM UH DSI UH EMIRATES UH SALAMA UH ARMX UH DIB UH NBS UH EMAAR UH ALDAR UH SOROUH UH
4,646.4 581.3 1,114.0 22,062.5 6,738.2 105.6 198.7 8,751.3 110.7 356.1 2,118.5 2,384.8 2,092.3 852.5 553.5 2,526.5 555.5 6,506.3 233.9 713.5 2,130.4 581.1 4,776.0 980.7 879.0
1.7% -4.7% 1.6% -5.4% -7.3% -7.3% -15.4% 1.8% 2.4% -3.8% 4.2% -3.0% -1.2% 1.2% 6.3% -0.9% -2.0% 3.6% 4.4% 1.7% 2.5% -1.1% -4.6% 0.8% 0.0%
4.5% -23.3% -8.8% 1.4% -9.3% -9.3% -35.3% -0.4% -18.4% -13.3% -17.8% -2.5% -0.9% -9.4% -4.9% -15.3% -10.8% 7.5% -8.8% -1.3% -7.6% -1.1% -12.5% -18.3% -13.4%
82.6% -3.9% -20.5% 7.4% 24.5% 24.5% -45.8% 20.9% 16.7% 8.2% 12.9% 33.0% 34.9% -12.2% -3.4% -20.5% 10.2% 82.4% -10.2% 7.9% 10.0% 15.3% -8.9% -49.2% -29.3%
5.3 55.4 10.2 11.3 7.1 76.7 17.7 8.8 149.8 4.8 5.5 5.9 5.2 10.7 9.5 99.9 9.7 5.7 7.7 12.3 6.6 7.5 10.2 5.3 4.6 8.23
0.9 1.3 0.5 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.12
18.9% 2.4% 4.8% 17.9% 16.9% 0.5% 2.8% 17.0% 0.4% 11.2% 14.2% 14.3% 23.5% 5.4% 7.7% 1.2% 8.1% 13.5% 6.8% 11.7% 13.1% 6.7% 5.2% 10.2% 10.4% 14.2%
1.7% 1.5% 3.3% 9.2% 2.4% 0.3% 2.5% 1.6% 0.3% 4.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 4.4% 2.5% 1.2% 4.1% 1.4% 2.8% 9.0% 1.4% 1.7% 2.8% 1.6% 5.2% 2.2%
3.05 1.22 0.62 10.25 16.50 0.79 66.00 11.20 0.84 1.76 1.25 3.51 3.25 0.67 1.36 1.16 0.94 4.30 0.71 1.79 2.06 0.88 2.88 1.25 1.23
3.92 1.26 0.86 11.66 21.43 0.75 U/R 13.45 0.74 2.31 U/R 4.70 U/R 0.73 1.36 0.85 1.28 5.07 1.03 2.06 U/R U/R 3.91 1.51 1.52
Kuwait Mobile Telecommunications Company National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait Finance House Commercial Bank of Kuwait National Mobile Telecommunications Company Jazeera Airways Company Al Rai Media Group Burgan Bank Total
ZAIN KK NBK KK KFIN KK CBK KK NMTC KK JAZEERA KK ALRAI KK BURG KK
15,635.0 15,441.9 8,675.9 3,868.7 3,695.9 185.5 68.3 2,670.4
-4.8% -6.9% -12.0% -5.7% 2.0% 16.2% n/a -2.9%
-17.5% -14.3% -18.5% -10.8% -1.0% 91.7% n/a -10.0%
-3.5% 7.0% -7.0% -6.3% 12.0% 105.4% n/a 50.7%
13.4 13.5 23.6 24.3 10.8 11.0 7.7 16.6 14.94
1.8 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.2 2.5 0.7 1.6 1.83
12.6% 15.2% 8.1% 9.1% 14.0% 25.9% 9.5% 9.9% 12.3%
8.6% 2.3% 0.8% 1.1% 7.5% 2.6% 5.2% 1.0% 2.3%
0.99 1.08 0.88 0.83 2.00 0.23 0.08 0.50
1.00 1.17 0.96 0.79 2.35 0.24 0.13 0.55
Oman Oman Telecommunications Company Bank Muscat Bank Dhofar National Bank of Oman Raysut Cement Company Oman International Bank Oman Cement Company Ahli Bank Total
OTEL OM BKMB OM BKDB OM NBOB OM RCCI OM OIBB OM OCOI OM ABOB OM
2,057.1 2,911.8 1,378.8 904.1 543.4 636.1 459.8 545.4
-3.7% -2.4% 2.3% 0.6% -1.6% -3.4% -4.5% 0.4%
-5.2% -6.2% -10.6% 3.2% -4.6% -3.2% -9.3% -8.4%
-2.9% 4.2% -5.4% 2.0% -8.9% 1.3% -16.1% 8.4%
7.3 10.1 13.9 11.7 11.6 13.5 10.3 10.4 10.07
1.6 1.3 2.0 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.47
22.7% 13.2% 15.7% 11.0% 16.8% 10.4% 11.5% 17.9% 15.2%
15.5% 1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 9.0% 1.5% 10.1% 2.4% 2.8%
1.06 0.72 0.58 0.32 1.05 0.25 0.54 0.26
1.18 0.81 0.36 0.32 1.02 0.21 0.60 0.26
July - 2011
Upside / (Downside) 28.5% 3.3% 38.7% 13.8% 29.9% -5.4% U/R 20.1% -11.9% 31.3% U/R 33.9% U/R 8.3% 0.0% -26.7% 36.6% 17.9% 45.1% 15.1% U/R U/R 35.8% 20.8% 23.6%
Rating
STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY HOLD U/R STRONG BUY SELL STRONG BUY U/R STRONG BUY U/R HOLD HOLD SELL STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY BUY U/R U/R STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY
1.0% HOLD 8.2% HOLD 9.1% HOLD -5.1% HOLD 17.5% BUY 2.6% HOLD 58.8% STRONG BUY 11.7% BUY
11.6% 11.2% -37.7% 0.8% -2.5% -15.6% 12.1% -1.4%
BUY BUY SELL HOLD HOLD SELL BUY HOLD
2
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by country (cont) Global Research - GCC Universe
Bloomberg Ticker
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
Qatar Qatar National Bank Industries Qatar Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar Qatar Islamic Bank The Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar Electricity & Water Company Doha Bank Qatar Insurance Company Al Rayan Bank Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Qatar National Cement Company Total Saudi Arabia Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Al Rajhi Bank Saudi Telecom Company Samba Financial Group Saudi Electricity Company Riyad Bank The Saudi British Bank Banque Saudi Fransi Etihad Etisalat Company Arab National Bank Alinma Bank Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Almarai Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company Savola Group Company Saudi Hollandi Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Bank Al Jazira Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Qassim Cement Company Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Eastern Province Cement Company Arabian Cement Co. Saudi Cement Company Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company Saudi Research and Marketing Group Bank Al Bilad Maaden Dar Alarkan Emaar Economic City Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Al Khodari Sons Company Mohammad Al-Mojil Group Total Bahrain Bahrain Telecommunications Company
QNBK QD IQCD QD QTEL QD VFQS QD QIBK QD CBQK QD QEWS QD DHBK QD QATI QD MARK QD QGRI QD QNCD QD
SABIC AB RJHI AB STC AB SAMBA AB SECO AB RIBL AB SABB AB BSFR AB EEC AB ARNB AB ALINMA AB SAFCO AB AlMARAI AB YANSAB AB SAVOLA AB AAAL AB SIBC AB BJAZ AB SIPCHEM AB SADAFCO AB QACCO AB YACCO AB YNCCO AB EACCO AB ARCCO AB SACCO AB ALHOKAIR AB RESEARCH AB ALBI AB MAADEN AB ALARKAN AB EMAAR AB SRECO AB ALKHODAR AB MMG AB
BATELCO BI
24,718.7 21,160.8 7,559.3 1,792.3 5,042.0 5,042.2 3,817.2 3,031.2 1,661.4 4,926.7 516.2 1,515.6
0.4% 2.9% 2.2% -1.3% -0.6% 2.9% -3.6% 3.9% 1.8% 2.9% -7.5% -3.1%
3.7% -4.9% -0.7% -3.0% -3.5% 1.4% -5.7% 3.3% -0.2% 3.6% -3.4% 0.4%
49.3% 46.0% 13.2% -2.3% 10.8% 15.3% 38.6% 30.1% 26.7% 69.6% 15.6% 66.2%
12.4 8.1 9.9 na 13.2 11.0 9.1 9.3 8.8 13.1 14.3 11.8 10.65
2.4 2.7 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.5 3.0 1.9 1.6 2.4 0.7 2.4 2.05
24.2% 37.6% 13.9% -5.6% 15.3% 14.3% 36.6% 21.5% 19.2% 21.8% 5.2% 20.9% 21.7%
2.9% 26.9% 2.7% -4.7% 2.5% 2.6% 6.8% 2.4% 9.3% 3.4% 3.3% 17.4% 4.3%
141.50 140.10 156.40 7.72 77.70 74.20 139.00 53.40 81.40 23.92 42.00 112.40
160.81 179.87 177.56 7.78 85.37 86.69 166.55 59.77 81.70 25.57 42.30 117.90
13.6% 28.4% 13.5% 0.8% 9.9% 16.8% 19.8% 11.9% 0.4% 6.9% 0.7% 4.9%
BUY STRONG BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD
82,195.6 28,798.5 18,772.3 11,663.4 14,832.3 9,919.5 8,459.5 8,369.5 9,986.1 6,720.8 3,919.8 11,516.1 5,611.7 7,439.6 3,426.5 2,531.2 2,698.4 1,355.9 2,043.4 334.5 1,571.9 2,195.9 1,630.9 1,105.3 896.0 2,458.1 933.3 360.5 1,435.9 6,462.3 2,102.3 1,620.6 748.8 759.3 693.3
0.7% 0.3% -1.9% -1.3% -2.9% 7.2% 0.7% -0.5% 4.3% 0.7% -1.5% -5.5% -3.2% 4.9% -4.6% -0.7% -2.4% -7.6% -3.0% -13.8% -4.4% -4.3% 5.9% -2.6% -5.0% -2.8% 5.5% -6.1% -6.8% -3.7% -7.0% -8.9% -2.3% -4.6% -8.4%
-6.1% -4.6% -1.7% -11.5% -3.3% -2.5% -7.0% -5.0% 2.4% -11.4% -3.0% -0.1% -2.1% -5.1% -6.7% -5.9% -3.4% -12.4% -4.1% -3.5% 9.6% 8.0% 30.9% 4.8% 5.7% 10.6% 2.0% -5.8% -3.0% -5.1% -18.9% 1.4% 3.3% 10.1% 0.4%
23.2% -6.1% -1.6% -16.7% -0.7% -8.9% -3.4% -1.1% 5.8% 1.1% -11.3% 36.0% -4.3% 32.3% -23.5% -16.3% 8.9% 0.6% 6.2% 10.4% 3.2% 25.5% 43.4% 12.4% 18.2% 48.7% 14.5% -15.0% -8.2% 40.9% -37.6% -16.4% 9.9% n/a 22.5%
9.5 13.8 8.9 9.4 22.7 12.0 13.2 10.1 7.8 11.5 69.2 12.8 15.4 8.5 13.6 9.7 11.3 24.8 12.9 9.7 10.9 11.7 14.1 12.1 7.8 12.0 10.1 14.8 15.2 45.7 6.8 na 23.8 14.1 20.6 11.16
1.6 3.7 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.6 0.9 5.3 3.1 3.1 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.2 2.5 2.6 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 3.9 1.6 1.75
18.2% 26.3% 14.2% 17.3% 4.8% 10.7% 15.3% 16.8% 27.9% 14.0% 1.4% 44.1% 21.2% 40.0% 11.1% 14.5% 10.4% 4.2% 9.5% 18.6% 28.5% 21.8% 16.8% 16.0% 16.0% 21.8% 28.2% 5.8% 10.8% 2.8% 7.9% -1.4% 3.7% 30.7% 7.9% 15.8%
9.7% 4.0% 6.8% 2.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.4% 13.9% 1.8% 0.6% 37.9% 10.1% 13.5% 5.1% 1.8% 1.7% 0.6% 4.8% 12.8% 26.0% 19.2% 10.1% 14.4% 10.1% 16.3% 16.3% 4.2% 1.5% 1.5% 4.9% -1.1% 3.3% 10.9% 4.0% 4.4%
102.75 72.00 35.20 48.60 13.35 24.80 42.30 43.40 53.50 29.60 9.80 172.75 91.50 49.60 25.70 28.70 18.40 16.95 20.90 38.60 65.50 61.00 58.25 48.20 42.00 60.25 50.00 16.90 17.95 26.20 7.30 7.15 23.40 67.00 20.80
122.81 70.60 41.00 56.60 13.88 27.50 41.50 49.50 68.50 30.70 10.90 178.60 91.6 60.77 34.00 31.10 19.50 19.00 28.33 43.88 71.90 65.60 54.40 42.80 55.00 63.00 49.20 15.80 19.80 28.30 9.75 7.20 28.95 73.70 25.20
19.5% -1.9% 16.5% 16.5% 4.0% 10.9% -1.9% 14.1% 28.0% 3.7% 11.2% 3.4% 0.2% 22.5% 32.3% 8.4% 6.0% 12.1% 35.6% 13.7% 9.8% 7.5% -6.6% -11.2% 31.0% 4.6% -1.6% -6.5% 10.3% 8.0% 33.6% 0.7% 23.7% 10.0% 21.2%
BUY HOLD BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY STRONG BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD BUY STRONG BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY
1,604.2
-1.8%
-9.1%
-10.0%
8.2
1.1
14.1%
11.1%
0.42
0.48
14.3%
BUY
* All price in local currency as of 31 July 2011 Source: Bloomberg & Global Research
July - 2011
3
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector Global Research - GCC Universe
Bloomberg Ticker
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
Cement & Building Material Arkan Building Materials Company Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Raysut Cement Company Oman Cement Company Qatar National Cement Company Qassim Cement Company Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Eastern Province Cement Company Arabian Cement Co. Saudi Cement Company Total
ARKAN UH FCEM KK GCEM UH RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH RCCI OM OCOI OM QNCD QD QACCO AB YACCO AB YNCCO AB EACCO AB ARCCO AB SACCO AB
581.3 105.6 198.7 110.7 356.1 543.4 459.8 1,515.6 1,571.9 2,195.9 1,630.9 1,105.3 896.0 2,458.1
-4.7% -7.3% -15.4% 2.4% -3.8% -1.6% -4.5% -3.1% -4.4% -4.3% 5.9% -2.6% -5.0% -2.8%
-23.3% -9.3% -35.3% -18.4% -13.3% -4.6% -9.3% 0.4% 9.6% 8.0% 30.9% 4.8% 5.7% 10.6%
-3.9% 24.5% -45.8% 16.7% 8.2% -8.9% -16.1% 66.2% 3.2% 25.5% 43.4% 12.4% 18.2% 48.7%
55.4 76.7 17.7 149.8 4.8 11.6 10.3 11.8 10.9 11.7 14.1 12.1 7.8 12.0 11.66
1.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.2 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.2 2.5 1.87
2.4% 0.5% 2.8% 0.4% 11.2% 16.8% 11.5% 20.9% 28.5% 21.8% 16.8% 16.0% 16.0% 21.8% 15.6%
1.5% 0.3% 2.5% 0.3% 4.9% 9.0% 10.1% 17.4% 26.0% 19.2% 10.1% 14.4% 10.1% 16.3% 10.9%
1.22 0.79 66.00 0.84 1.76 1.05 0.54 112.40 65.50 61.00 58.25 48.20 42.00 60.25
1.26 0.75 U/R 0.74 2.31 1.02 0.60 117.90 71.90 65.60 54.40 42.80 55.00 63.00
3.3% HOLD -5.4% HOLD U/R U/R -11.9% SELL 31.3% STRONG BUY -2.5% HOLD 12.1% BUY 4.9% HOLD 9.8% HOLD 7.5% HOLD -6.6% HOLD -11.2% SELL 31.0% STRONG BUY 4.6% HOLD
Insurance SALAMA Qatar Insurance Company Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Total
SALAMA UH QATI QD QGRI QD
233.9 1,661.4 516.2
4.4% 1.8% -7.5%
-8.8% -0.2% -3.4%
-10.2% 26.7% 15.6%
7.7 8.8 14.3 8.17
0.5 1.6 0.7 1.37
6.8% 19.2% 5.2% 16.0%
2.8% 9.3% 3.3% 6.5%
0.71 81.40 42.00
1.03 81.70 42.30
45.1% STRONG BUY 0.4% HOLD 0.7% HOLD
Telecom Emirates Telecommunications Corporation Bahrain Telecommunications Company Mobile Telecommunications Company National Mobile Telecommunications Company Oman Telecommunications Company Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar Saudi Telecom Company Etihad Etisalat Company Total
ETISALAT UH BATELCO BI ZAIN KK NMTC KK OTEL OM QTEL QD VFQS QD STC AB EEC AB
22,062.5 1,604.2 15,635.0 3,695.9 2,057.1 7,559.3 1,792.3 18,772.3 9,986.1
-5.4% -1.8% -4.8% 2.0% -3.7% 2.2% -1.3% -1.9% 4.3%
1.4% -9.1% -17.5% -1.0% -5.2% -0.7% -3.0% -1.7% 2.4%
7.4% -10.0% 0.0% 12.0% -2.9% 13.2% -2.3% -1.6% 5.8%
11.3 8.2 13.4 10.8 7.3 9.9 na 8.9 7.8 10.42
2.0 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.2 2.0 1.66
17.9% 14.1% 12.6% 14.0% 22.7% 13.9% -5.6% 14.2% 27.9% 15.3%
9.2% 11.1% 8.6% 7.5% 15.5% 2.7% -4.7% 6.8% 13.9% 7.0%
10.25 0.42 0.99 2.00 1.06 156.40 7.72 35.20 53.50
11.66 0.48 1.00 2.35 1.18 177.56 7.78 41.00 68.50
13.8% BUY 14.3% BUY 1.0% HOLD 17.5% BUY 11.6% BUY 13.5% BUY 0.8% HOLD 16.5% BUY 28.0% STRONG BUY
Petrochemicals Dana Gas Industries Qatar Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Total
DANA UH IQCD QD SABIC AB SAFCO AB YANSAB AB SIPCHEM AB
1,114.0 21,160.8 82,195.6 11,516.1 7,439.6 2,043.4
1.6% 2.9% 0.7% -5.5% 4.9% -3.0%
-8.8% -4.9% -6.1% -0.1% -5.1% -4.1%
-20.5% 46.0% 23.2% 36.0% 32.3% 6.2%
10.2 8.1 9.5 12.8 8.5 12.9 9.44
0.5 2.7 1.6 5.3 3.1 1.2 2.17
4.8% 37.6% 18.2% 44.1% 40.0% 9.5% 21.2%
3.3% 26.9% 9.7% 37.9% 13.5% 4.8% 11.7%
0.62 140.10 102.75 172.75 49.60 20.90
0.86 179.87 122.81 178.60 60.77 28.33
38.7% 96.0% 19.5% 3.4% 22.5% 35.6%
July - 2011
STRONG BUY STRONG BUY BUY HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY
4
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector (cont) Global Research - GCC Universe Banks Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank First Gulf Bank National Bank of Abu Dhabi Union National Bank Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Emirates NBD Dubai Islamic Bank Sharjah Islamic Bank National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait Finance House Commercial Bank of Kuwait Burgan Bank Bank Muscat Bank Dhofar National Bank of Oman Ahli Bank Qatar National Bank Qatar Islamic Bank The Commercial Bank of Qatar Doha Bank Al Rayan Bank Al Rajhi Bank Samba Financial Group Riyad Bank The Saudi British Bank Banque Saudi Fransi Arab National Bank Saudi Hollandi Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Bank Al Bilad Alinma Bank Bank Al Jazira Total
Bloomberg Ticker
ADCB UH FGB UH NBAD UH UNB UH ADIB UH EMIRATES UH DIB UH NBS UH NBK KK KFIN KK CBK KK BURG KK BKMB OM BKDB OM NBOB OM ABOB OM QNBK QD QIBK QD CBQK QD DHBK QD MARK QD RJHI AB SAMBA AB RIBL AB SABB AB BSFR AB ARNB AB AAAL AB SIBC AB ALBI AB ALINMA AB BJAZ AB
Utilities Abu Dhabi National Energy Qatar Electricity & Water Company Saudi Electricity Company Total
TAQA UH QEWS QD SECO AB
Transportation and Logistics Aramex Air Arabia Jazeera Airways Company Total
ARMX UH AIRARABI UH JAZEERA KK
July - 2011
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
4,646.4 6,738.2 8,751.3 2,384.8 2,092.3 6,506.3 2,130.4 581.1 15,441.9 8,675.9 3,868.7 2,670.4 2,911.8 1,378.8 904.1 545.4 24,718.7 5,042.0 5,042.2 3,031.2 4,926.7 28,798.5 11,663.4 9,919.5 8,459.5 8,369.5 6,720.8 2,531.2 2,698.4 1,435.9 3,919.8 1,355.9
1.7% -7.3% 1.8% -3.0% -1.2% 3.6% 2.5% -1.1% -6.9% -12.0% -5.7% -2.9% -2.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% -0.6% 2.9% 3.9% 2.9% 0.3% -1.3% 7.2% 0.7% -0.5% 0.7% -0.7% -2.4% -6.8% -1.5% -7.6%
4.5% -9.3% -0.4% -2.5% -0.9% 7.5% -7.6% -1.1% -14.3% -18.5% -10.8% -10.0% -6.2% -10.6% 3.2% -8.4% 3.7% -3.5% 1.4% 3.3% 3.6% -4.6% -11.5% -2.5% -7.0% -5.0% -11.4% -5.9% -3.4% -3.0% -3.0% -12.4%
82.6% 24.5% 20.9% 33.0% 34.9% 82.4% 10.0% 15.3% 7.0% -7.0% -6.3% 50.7% 4.2% -5.4% 2.0% 8.4% 49.3% 10.8% 15.3% 30.1% 69.6% -6.1% -16.7% -8.9% -3.4% -1.1% 1.1% -16.3% 8.9% -8.2% -11.3% 0.6%
5.3 7.1 8.8 5.9 5.2 5.7 6.6 7.5 13.5 23.6 24.3 16.6 10.1 13.9 11.7 10.4 12.4 13.2 11.0 9.3 13.1 13.8 9.4 12.0 13.2 10.1 11.5 9.7 11.3 15.2 69.2 24.8 10.84
0.9 1.1 1.4 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.3 2.0 1.3 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.7 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.86
18.9% 16.9% 17.0% 14.3% 23.5% 13.5% 13.1% 6.7% 15.2% 8.1% 9.1% 9.9% 13.2% 15.7% 11.0% 17.9% 24.2% 15.3% 14.3% 21.5% 21.8% 26.3% 17.3% 10.7% 15.3% 16.8% 14.0% 14.5% 10.4% 10.8% 1.4% 4.2% 16.2%
1.7% 2.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 3.4% 4.0% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.4% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 2.0%
3.05 16.50 11.20 3.51 3.25 4.30 2.06 0.88 1.08 0.88 0.83 0.50 0.72 0.58 0.32 0.26 141.50 77.70 74.20 53.40 23.92 72.00 48.60 24.80 42.30 43.40 29.60 28.70 18.40 17.95 9.80 16.95
3.92 21.43 13.45 4.70 U/R 5.07 U/R U/R 1.17 0.96 0.79 0.55 0.81 0.36 0.32 0.26 160.81 85.37 86.69 59.77 25.57 70.60 56.60 27.50 41.50 49.50 30.70 31.10 19.50 19.80 10.90 19.00
28.5% 29.9% 20.1% 33.9% U/R 17.9% U/R U/R 8.2% 9.1% -5.1% 11.7% 11.2% -37.7% 0.8% -1.4% 13.6% 9.9% 16.8% 11.9% 6.9% -1.9% 16.5% 10.9% -1.9% 14.1% 3.7% 8.4% 6.0% 10.3% 11.2% 12.1%
STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY U/R BUY U/R U/R HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY SELL HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY
2,118.5 3,817.2 14,832.3
4.2% -3.6% -2.9%
-17.8% -5.7% -3.3%
12.9% 38.6% -0.7%
5.5 9.1 22.7 14.23
0.7 3.0 1.1 1.21
14.2% 36.6% 4.8% 8.3%
1.4% 6.8% 1.2% 1.7%
1.25 139.00 13.35
U/R 166.55 13.88
U/R 19.8% 4.0%
U/R BUY HOLD
713.5 852.5 185.5
1.7% 1.2% 16.2%
-1.3% -9.4% 91.7%
7.9% -12.2% 105.4%
12.3 10.7 11.0 11.30
1.4 0.6 2.5 0.87
11.7% 5.4% 25.9% 7.6%
9.0% 4.4% 2.6% 5.0%
1.79 0.67 0.23
2.06 0.73 0.24
15.1% 8.3% 2.6%
BUY HOLD HOLD
5
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
GCC Universe by sector (cont) Global Research - GCC Universe
Bloomberg Ticker
Construction Contractors Arabtec Holding Drake & Scull International Al Khodari Sons Company Mohammad Al-Mojil Group Total
ARTC UH DSI UH ALKHODAR AB MMG AB
Food & Agriculture Almarai Company Savola Group Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Total
AlMARAI AB SAVOLA AB SADAFCO AB
Real Estate Dar Alarkan Emaar Economic City Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Emaar Properties Aldar Properties Sorouh Real Estate Total Others Dubai Financial Market Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company Maaden Saudi Research and Marketing Group Al Rai Media Group Total
ALARKAN AB EMAAR AB SRECO AB EMAAR UH ALDAR UH SOROUH UH
DFM UH ALHOKAIR AB MAADEN AB RESEARCH AB ALRAI KK
Mkt. Cap USD mn
1M
Stock Performance 3M 12M
P/E 2011e
P/BV 2011e
ROE 2011e
ROA 2011e
Current Price
Target Price
Upside / (Downside)
Rating
553.5 555.5 759.3 693.3
6.3% -2.0% -4.6% -8.4%
-4.9% -10.8% 10.1% 0.4%
-3.4% 10.2% n/a 22.5%
9.5 9.7 14.1 20.6 9.57
0.7 0.8 3.9 1.6 0.78
7.7% 8.1% 30.7% 7.9% 7.9%
2.5% 4.1% 10.9% 4.0% 3.1%
1.36 0.94 67.00 20.80
1.36 1.28 73.70 25.20
0.0% 36.6% 10.0% 21.2%
HOLD STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY
5,611.7 3,426.5 334.5
-3.2% -4.6% -13.8%
-2.1% -6.7% -3.5%
-4.3% -23.5% 10.4%
15.4 13.6 9.7 14.39
3.1 1.5 1.7 2.33
21.2% 11.1% 18.6% 15.6%
10.1% 5.1% 12.8% 7.4%
91.50 25.70 38.60
91.65 34.00 43.88
0.2% 32.3% 13.7%
HOLD STRONG BUY BUY
2,102.3 1,620.6 748.8 4,776.0 980.7 879.0
-7.0% -8.9% -2.3% -4.6% 0.8% 0.0%
-18.9% 1.4% 3.3% -12.5% -18.3% -13.4%
-37.6% -16.4% 9.9% -8.9% -49.2% -29.3%
6.8 na 23.8 10.2 5.3 4.6 14.16
0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.68
7.9% -1.4% 3.7% 5.2% 10.2% 10.4% 4.7%
4.9% -1.1% 3.3% 2.8% 1.6% 5.2% 3.3%
7.30 7.15 23.40 2.88 1.25 1.23
9.75 7.20 28.95 3.91 1.51 1.52
33.6% 0.7% 23.7% 35.8% 20.8% 23.6%
STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY
2,526.5 933.3 6,462.3 360.5 68.3
-0.9% 5.5% -3.7% -6.1% n/a
-15.3% 2.0% -5.1% -5.8% n/a
-20.5% 14.5% 40.9% -15.0% n/a
99.9 10.1 45.7 14.8 7.7 36.31
1.2 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.33
1.2% 28.2% 2.8% 5.8% 9.5% 3.6%
1.2% 16.3% 1.5% 4.2% 5.2% 2.2%
1.16 50.00 26.20 16.90 0.08
0.85 49.20 28.30 15.80 0.13
-26.7% -1.6% 8.0% -6.5% 58.8%
SELL HOLD HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY
* All price in local currency as of 31 July 2011 * 1% added to the country risk premium for all the companies under coverage Source: Bloomberg & Global Research
July - 2011
6
July - 2011 5%
0%
Dividend Yield Top 10 Gainers in 1 month
15.0% 20%
12.0% 15%
9.0%
6.0%
10%
3.0% 5%
0.0%
0% Jazeera Airways Company
10%
Doha Bank
25%
Al Rajhi Bank
15%
Abu Dhabi National Energy
30%
20%
Etihad Etisalat Company
25%
Etihad Etisalat Company
45%
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company
30%
SALAMA
50%
35%
Qassim Cement Company
40%
Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company
Return on Assets (ROA)
Tawuniya
Abu Dhabi National Energy
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company
Arabtec Holding PJSC
Al Rai Media Group
Air Arabia
Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company
-
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company
0.1
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co.
0.2
1.00
Qatar Electricity & Water Company
Attractive P/E x
Yanbu Cement Company
0.3
2.00
Sharjah Islamic Bank
0.4
3.00
Industries Qatar
0.5
4.00
Arabtec Holding PJSC
0.6
5.00
SALAMA
0.7
6.00
Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company
Gulf Cement Company
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Oman Telecommunications Company
First Gulf Bank
Dubai Islamic Bank
Tawuniya
Union National Bank
Emirates NBD
Abu Dhabi National Energy
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank
0.8
7.00
Riyad Bank
Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company
Etihad Etisalat Company
Eastern Province Cement Company
Oman Telecommunications Company
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company
Saudi Cement Company
Qatar National Cement Company
Yamama Saudi Cement Company
Qassim Cement Company
Industries Qatar
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
8.00
Jazeera Airways Company
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
Qatar Insurance Company
Sharjah Islamic Bank
The Commercial Bank of Qatar
Saudi Telecom Company
Oman Cement Company
Bahrain Telecommunications Company
Doha Bank
Oman Telecommunications Company
Air Arabia
Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company
Global Research - GCC GCC Equity Monitor
Charts Attractive P/BV x
Return on Equity (ROE)
40%
35%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: Glob al Research, Bloomb erg
7
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
Technical Overview QE Index settled at 8,402.86 point. The index is still getting help from its rise above the support zone between 8,300 point – 8,250 point and the failure seen on the last two sessions to go below there could be an indication of a short-term buying intent. Meanwhile, the bulls are encountering a resistance line at 8,520 point, knowing that a successful close above there would call for limited downward move and additional strength, aiming for 8,600 point before April’s high at 8,843 point. However, only below the aforementioned support area will trigger 8,100 point. Weekly and daily “RSI” indicators are mixed as they show neutral and bullish signals, respectively. Strategy: Medium-term investors can only re-enter the market when the index sustains a close above 8,420 point, while long-term (50 weeks) investors can hold while the index is trading above 8,220 point. QE Index Index Name July 31, 2011 Sector
Index
Reuters’ RIC Last Trade (point)
8,402.86
MACD* RSI**
39.87 50.232
Moving Average (11 weeks) Moving Average (50 weeks)
8,420 8,220
Support (1) ^
8,250
Support (2) ^
8,100
Resistance(1) ^^
8,520
Resistance(2) ^^
8,843
Trend Status
Neutral to Bullish
Name of Index
Reuter' RIC
Close
Support
Weekly RSI 1
Resistance 2
1
2
Strategy Medium
Long
Moving Average 11
50
6,060.30
30.785
5,946
5,880
6,225
6,537 Bearish Bearish
6,200
6,560
6,392.13
45.265
6,300
6,000
6,535
6,800 Bearish Bearish
6,535
6,480
8,402.86
50.232
8,250
8,100
8,520
8,843 Neutral
Bullish
8,420
8,220
2,619.70
44.034
2,600
2,580
2,655
2,700 Bearish Bearish
2,685
2,685
1,517.58
43.574
1,500
1,472
1,567
1,600 Bearish Bearish
1,550
1,600
MSM 30 Index
5,808.30
28.759
5,700
5,600
6,000
6,085 Bearish Bearish
6,000
6,300
Bahrain All Share Index
1,291.66
24.235
1,270
1,250
1,322
1,350 Bearish Bearish
1,330
1,400
Kuwait Stock Exchange Price Index Saudi All Share Index QE Index Abu Dhabi Price Index Dubai Financial Market Index
Definitions: * A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. When the MACD is above zero, the short-term average is above the long-term average, which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true. ** A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. × Moving average. Which is an arithmetic way and a tool used purpose of easing the price fluctuations to clarify the trend and differentiate between primary or secondary trend of prices and the normal fluctuations. ^ The price level which, historically, a stock has had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock. ^^ The price at which a stock or market can trade, but can not exceed, for a certain period of time. The stock or market stops rising because sellers start to outnumber buyers. Disclaimer: This Technical Analysis is not an invitation to buy or sell, as it is “Global’s” opinion and speculation of future movement of the stock. Also it is not considered a sufficient material to relay on when taking financial and investment decisions. Investors should study the financial statement before taking any investment decision.
July - 2011
8
Global Research - GCC
GCC Equity Monitor
Disclosure The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure. Disclosure Checklist Company Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Abu Dhabi National Energy Ahli Bank Air Arabia Aldar Properties Al Rajhi Bank Al Rayan Bank Al Rai Media Group Al Khodari Sons Company Almarai Company Arab National Bank Arabian Cement Co. Arabtec Holding PJSC Aramex Arkan Building Materials Company Bahrain Telecommunications Company Bank Al Bilad Bank Dhofar Bank Muscat Banque Saudi Fransi Burgan Bank Commercial Bank of Kuwait Dana Gas Dar Alarkan Doha Bank Drake & Scull International Dubai Financial Market Eastern Province Cement Company Emaar Economic City Emaar Properties Emirates NBD Emirates Telecommunications Corporation Etihad Etisalat Company Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company First Gulf Bank Fujairah Cement Industries Gulf Cement Company Industries Qatar Jazeera Airways Company Kuwait Finance House Maaden Mobile Telecommunications Company Mohammad Al-Mojil Group National Bank of Abu Dhabi National Bank of Kuwait National Bank of Oman
July - 2011
Recommendation
Bloomberg Ticker
Reuters Ticker
Price
Disclosure
STRONG BUY U/R HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY BUY SELL BUY BUY BUY HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY BUY STRONG BUY SELL SELL HOLD STRONG BUY BUY BUY STRONG BUY HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD U/R STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD
ADCB UH TAQA UH ABOB OM AIRARABI UH ALDAR UH RJHI AB MARK QD ALRAI KK ALKHODAR AB AlMARAI AB ARNB AB ARCCO AB ARTC UH ARMX UH ARKAN UH BATELCO BI ALBI AB BKDB OM BKMB OM BSFR AB BURG KK CBK KK DANA UH ALARKAN AB DHBK QD DSI UH DFM UH EACCO AB EMAAR AB EMAAR UH EMIRATES UH ETISALAT UH EEC AB ALHOKAIR AB FGB UH FCEM KK GCEM UH IQCD QD JAZEERA KK KFIN KK MAADEN AB ZAIN KK MMG AB NBAD UH NBK KK NBOB OM
ADCB.AD TAQA.AD ABOB.OM AIRA.DU ALDR.AD 1120.SE MARK.QA ALRA.KW 1330.SE 2280.SE 1080.SE 3010.SE ARTC.DU ARMX.DU ARKN.AD BTEL.BH 1140.SE BDOF.OM BMAO.OM 1050.SE BURG.KW CBKK.KW DANA.AD 4300.SE DOBK.QA DSI.DU DFM.DU 3080.SE 4220.SE EMAR.DU ENBD.DU ETEL.AD 7020.SE 4240.SE FGB.AD FCEM.KW GCEM.AD IQCD.QA JAZK.KW KFIN.KW 1211.SE ZAIN.KW 1310.SE NBAD.AD NBKK.KW NBO.OM
AED 3.05 AED 1.25 OMR 0.262 SAR 0.671 AED 1.25 SAR 72 QAR 23.92 KWD 0.08 SAR 67 SAR 91.5 SAR 29.6 SAR 42 AED 1.36 AED 1.79 AED 1.22 BHD 0.42 SAR 17.95 OMR 0.58 OMR 0.724 SAR 43.4 KWD 0.495 KWD 0.83 AED 0.62 SAR 7.3 QAR 53.4 AED 0.937 AED 1.16 SAR 48.2 SAR 7.15 AED 2.88 AED 4.3 AED 10.25 SAR 53.5 SAR 50 AED 16.5 KWD 0.793 AED 66 QAR 140.1 KWD 0.23 KWD 0.88 SAR 26.2 KWD 0.99 SAR 20.8 AED 11.2 KWD 1.08 OMR 0.322
1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,11 1,10 1,10 1,10
9
Global Research - GCC National Mobile Telecommunications Company Oman Cement Company Oman Telecommunications Company Qassim Cement Company Qatar Electricity & Water Company Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company Qatar Insurance Company Qatar Islamic Bank Qatar National Bank Qatar National Cement Company Qatar Telecom Ras Al Khaimah Cement Company Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics Co. Raysut Cement Company Riyad Bank SALAMA Samba Financial Group Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Company Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Saudi Cement Company Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company Saudi Electricity Company Saudi Hollandi Bank Saudi International Petrochemichal Company Saudi Real Estate Co. (Akaria) Saudi Research and Marketing Group Saudi Telecom Company Savola Group Company Sorouh Real Estate The Commercial Bank of Qatar The Saudi British Bank The Saudi Investment Bank Union National Bank Vodafone Qatar Yamama Saudi Cement Company Yanbu Cement Company Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company
GCC Equity Monitor BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD BUY SELL STRONG BUY HOLD BUY STRONG BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY STRONG BUY HOLD BUY STRONG BUY STRONG BUY BUY HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD STRONG BUY
NMTC KK OCOI OM OTEL OM QACCO AB QEWS QD QGRI QD QATI QD QIBK QD QNBK QD QNCD QD QTEL QD RAKCC UH RAKCEC UH RCCI OM RIBL AB SALAMA UH SAMBA AB SAFCO AB SABIC AB SACCO AB SADAFCO AB SECO AB AAAL AB SIPCHEM AB SRECO AB RESEARCH AB STC AB SAVOLA AB SOROUH UH CBQK QD SABB AB SIBC AB UNB UH VFQS QD YACCO AB YNCCO AB YANSAB AB
NMTC.KW OCCO.OM OTL.OM 3040.SE QEWC.QA QGIR.QA QINS.QA QISB.QA QNBK.QA QANC.QA QTEL.QA RAKC.AD RKCE.AD RAYC.OM 1010.SE SALAMA.DU 1090.SE 2020.SE 2010.SE 3030.SE 2270.SE 5110.SE 1040.SE 2310.SE 4020.SE 4210.SE 4110.SE 2050.SE SOR.AD COMB.QA 1060.SE 1030.SE UNB.AD VFQS.QA 3020.SE 3060.SE 2290.SE
KWD 2 OMR 0.535 OMR 1.056 SAR 65.5 QAR 139 QAR 42 QAR 81.4 QAR 77.7 QAR 141.5 QAR 112.4 QAR 156.4 AED 0.84 AED 1.76 OMR 1.046 SAR 24.8 AED 0.71 SAR 48.6 SAR 172.75 SAR 102.75 SAR 60.25 SAR 38.6 SAR 13.35 SAR 28.7 SAR 20.9 SAR 23.4 SAR 16.9 SAR 35.2 SAR 25.7 AED 1.23 QAR 74.2 SAR 42.3 SAR 18.4 AED 3.51 QAR 7.72 SAR 61 SAR 58.25 SAR 49.6
1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10
1. Global Investment House did not receive and will not receive any compensation from the company or anyone else for the preparation of this report. 2. The company being researched holds more than 5% stake in Global Investment House. 3. Global Investment House makes a market in securities issued by this company. 4. Global Investment House acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 5. The author of or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 6. An employee of Global Investment House serves on the board of directors of this company. 7. Within the past year , Global Investment House has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it received fees. 8. Global Investment House has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 9. Global Investment House expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. 10. Please see special footnote below for other relevant disclosures.
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Global Research - GCC Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions Global Rating Defination STRONG BUY Fair value of the stock is BUY Fair value of the stock is HOLD Fair value of the stock is SELL Fair value of the stock is
GCC Equity Monitor
>20% from the current market price between +10% and +20% from the current market price between +10% and -10% from the current market price < -10% from the current market price
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This material was also produced by Global Investment House - Saudia, a firm regulated by the Capital Market Authority of KSA. This document is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived by Global –Saudia from sources believed to be reliable, but Global- Saudia has not independently verified the contents of this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Global – Saudia accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Global shall have no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect of any inaccuracy in or omission from this or any other document prepared by Global- Saudia for, or sent by Global- Saudia to any person and any such person shall be responsible for conducting his own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this or other such document. Global investment house- Saudia is authorized and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. License Number 07067-37”.
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