Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder ABCs for FY 2017- FY 2018
Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder ABCs for FY 2017- FY 2018 Jamie M. Cournane, PhD NEFMC Staff Groundfish Plan Coordinator SSC Meeting August 10, 2016 1
SSC Recommendations in 2015 1.
ABC for Georges Bank yellowtail flounder for fishing year 2016 should not exceed 354 mt. In the absence of evidence of a substantial change in biomass in the 2016 TRAC assessment, ABC for fishing year 2017 should remain 354 mt. OFL for the stock remains unknown.
1.
The interacting management, market and biological factors that determine actual catch from the stock should be more closely examined in order to better understand why catch remains substantially below ABC and how that disparity might change in the future. 2
2016 TRAC Summary Met July 12-14 in Woods Hole, MA Results indicate that stock is low and productivity is poor Recent recruitment below average Age structure includes fewer young fish and fewer old fish Recent catch low relative to low quotas Biomass decreased in two surveys and increased in the
other relative to the previous assessment Recent catch is low relative to the quota and biomass estimated by surveys, while total mortality is high
3
9
Other
Catch (thousand mt)
8
USA
7
Canada
6
Quota
5
4 3 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Lowest catch on record US Canada Sum
metric tons Landings Discards 63 41 3 11 66 52
Catch 104 14 118
US Canada Sum
Landings 54% 2% 56%
Discards 34% 10% 44%
Catch 88% 12% 100%
2015 quota = 354 mt 4 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
2016 = 8th lowest out of 30 years
Surveys down on average 2016 = the lowest out of 49 years
2015 = 3rd lowest out of 53 years 5 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
DFO
6 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC 7
8 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
No indication of incoming recruitment
Note: 2016 NEFSC spring survey age data not available
9 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
10
11
12
3 2 1 0
Relative F (scaled to mean)
4
DFO NMFS Spring NMFS Fall
1970
1980
1990 Year
2000
2010 13 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
Note: 2016 NEFSC spring survey age data not available 14 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
Empirical Approach mu = Fall Spring (year-1)
Avg (mt)
2% Catch Advice (mt)
16% Catch Advice (mt)
Year
DFO
2010
8,233
22,181
26,936
19,117
382
3,059
2011
3,450
9,557
8,976
7,328
147
1,172
2012
5,063
14,908
9,793
9,921
198
1,587
2013
629
4,119
10,065
4,938
99
790
2014
462
2,763
3,493
2,240
45
358
2015
741
1,891
4,092
2,241
45
359
2016
1,557
1,165
1,875
1,532
31
245
15 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
TRAC Catch Advice for 2017 Recommended catch advice within the range of 31 mt to
245 mt (2%-16% exploitation rate) based on the empirical approach Based on further declines in the survey biomass since last year Noted that constant quota would result in 354 mt and an exploitation rate of 23%, above the upper bound of the exploitation rate range from the empirical approach
16
PDT Discussion Sources of uncertainty Timing of the 2016 spring survey Allegations of catch misreporting currently under litigation Experimental estimate of the catchability of the Bigelow survey trawl not available – based on literature review Using the empirical approach and applying an exploitation rate means that the quota could vary annually based on survey biomass estimates Stock does not appear to be responding to low catch – unclear if or what environmental driver might be impacting the stock 17
PDT Discussion Possible reasons for low catches Loss of market due to low quotas Poor stock condition Spatial shifts in stock distribution Avoidance of the stock (e.g., separator gear use) Difficulty finding yellowtail flounder Management of other species (northern windowpane flounder AMs, scallop fishery AMs and area-based management)
18
PDT Discussion Recent low quota have not appeared to constrain the U.S.
groundfish fishery in its access to other abundant stocks like GB haddock Otherwise, GB yellowtail flounder would be expected to be caught at a higher rate Total fishery catches were 218 mt in 2013, 159 mt in 2014, and 118 mt in 2015 Quotas lower than recent catches may constrain access to other species (i.e., haddock, scallops)
19
Catch performance
20
Ratio of US discards to US landings
21
Catch composition from observer data US trawl fishing on GB
22
N. Windowpane Flounder AMs Gear Restricted areas in FY 2014- FY 2015
23
Usage of separator gear on GB US groundfish fishery
24
Usage of separator gear on GB US groundfish fishery
25
Usage of separator gear on GB US groundfish fishery
26
Memo Attachments Attachment #1- U.S./Canada Management and Special Access Programs for Sector Vessels Attachment #2- Scallop PDT memo: Scallop Fishery Catch of GB yellowtail flounder 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Scallop Fishery Allocations and Catch of GB YT Rotational and Seasonal Closures within the GB YT Stock Area Gear Modifications to Reduce Flatfish Catch Bycatch Avoidance Efforts Scallop fishery effort in the GB YT stock area
27
PDT Recommendation Based on the PDT’s discussion, the PDT viewed 245 mt as an upper limit on the GB yellowtail flounder catch advice for FY 2017. Any FY 2018 catch advice would be a placeholder until the TRAC assessment in 2017. 245 mt would be approximately a 100 mt reduction from the FY 2016 ABC of 354 mt. The PDT recognizes, while considering the information in the TRAC assessment, that it is unclear if catches are driving the dynamics of the GB yellowtail flounder stock. Further, a quota lower than 245 mt might not lead to a positive response in the GB yellowtail flounder stock, given that recent low quotas and low catches have not appeared to generate a biological response to date. 28
FY 2016 Scallop Management
29
Catch Performance – Scallop Fishery
30
LA Scallop Fishery allocations and CA2 access
31
SMAST Bycatch Avoidance Program
32
Scallop Fishery Effort
33
Scallop Fishery Effort 2014 - # of LA VTR Trips
2013 – # of LA VTR Trips
34
Scallop Fishery Effort 2012 - # of LA VTR Trips
2011 – # of LA VTR Trips
35
SSC Recommendations in 2015 1.
ABC for Georges Bank yellowtail flounder for fishing year 2016 should not exceed 354 mt. In the absence of evidence of a substantial change in biomass in the 2016 TRAC assessment, ABC for fishing year 2017 should remain 354 mt. OFL for the stock remains unknown.
1.
The interacting management, market and biological factors that determine actual catch from the stock should be more closely examined in order to better understand why catch remains substantially below ABC and how that disparity might change in the future. 2
2016 TRAC Summary Met July 12-14 in Woods Hole, MA Results indicate that stock is low and productivity is poor Recent recruitment below average Age structure includes fewer young fish and fewer old fish Recent catch low relative to low quotas Biomass decreased in two surveys and increased in the
other relative to the previous assessment Recent catch is low relative to the quota and biomass estimated by surveys, while total mortality is high
3
9
Other
Catch (thousand mt)
8
USA
7
Canada
6
Quota
5
4 3 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Lowest catch on record US Canada Sum
metric tons Landings Discards 63 41 3 11 66 52
Catch 104 14 118
US Canada Sum
Landings 54% 2% 56%
Discards 34% 10% 44%
Catch 88% 12% 100%
2015 quota = 354 mt 4 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
2016 = 8th lowest out of 30 years
Surveys down on average 2016 = the lowest out of 49 years
2015 = 3rd lowest out of 53 years 5 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
DFO
6 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC 7
8 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
No indication of incoming recruitment
Note: 2016 NEFSC spring survey age data not available
9 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
10
11
12
3 2 1 0
Relative F (scaled to mean)
4
DFO NMFS Spring NMFS Fall
1970
1980
1990 Year
2000
2010 13 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
Note: 2016 NEFSC spring survey age data not available 14 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
Empirical Approach mu = Fall Spring (year-1)
Avg (mt)
2% Catch Advice (mt)
16% Catch Advice (mt)
Year
DFO
2010
8,233
22,181
26,936
19,117
382
3,059
2011
3,450
9,557
8,976
7,328
147
1,172
2012
5,063
14,908
9,793
9,921
198
1,587
2013
629
4,119
10,065
4,938
99
790
2014
462
2,763
3,493
2,240
45
358
2015
741
1,891
4,092
2,241
45
359
2016
1,557
1,165
1,875
1,532
31
245
15 Courtesy of C. Legault, NMFS/NEFSC
TRAC Catch Advice for 2017 Recommended catch advice within the range of 31 mt to
245 mt (2%-16% exploitation rate) based on the empirical approach Based on further declines in the survey biomass since last year Noted that constant quota would result in 354 mt and an exploitation rate of 23%, above the upper bound of the exploitation rate range from the empirical approach
16
PDT Discussion Sources of uncertainty Timing of the 2016 spring survey Allegations of catch misreporting currently under litigation Experimental estimate of the catchability of the Bigelow survey trawl not available – based on literature review Using the empirical approach and applying an exploitation rate means that the quota could vary annually based on survey biomass estimates Stock does not appear to be responding to low catch – unclear if or what environmental driver might be impacting the stock 17
PDT Discussion Possible reasons for low catches Loss of market due to low quotas Poor stock condition Spatial shifts in stock distribution Avoidance of the stock (e.g., separator gear use) Difficulty finding yellowtail flounder Management of other species (northern windowpane flounder AMs, scallop fishery AMs and area-based management)
18
PDT Discussion Recent low quota have not appeared to constrain the U.S.
groundfish fishery in its access to other abundant stocks like GB haddock Otherwise, GB yellowtail flounder would be expected to be caught at a higher rate Total fishery catches were 218 mt in 2013, 159 mt in 2014, and 118 mt in 2015 Quotas lower than recent catches may constrain access to other species (i.e., haddock, scallops)
19
Catch performance
20
Ratio of US discards to US landings
21
Catch composition from observer data US trawl fishing on GB
22
N. Windowpane Flounder AMs Gear Restricted areas in FY 2014- FY 2015
23
Usage of separator gear on GB US groundfish fishery
24
Usage of separator gear on GB US groundfish fishery
25
Usage of separator gear on GB US groundfish fishery
26
Memo Attachments Attachment #1- U.S./Canada Management and Special Access Programs for Sector Vessels Attachment #2- Scallop PDT memo: Scallop Fishery Catch of GB yellowtail flounder 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Scallop Fishery Allocations and Catch of GB YT Rotational and Seasonal Closures within the GB YT Stock Area Gear Modifications to Reduce Flatfish Catch Bycatch Avoidance Efforts Scallop fishery effort in the GB YT stock area
27
PDT Recommendation Based on the PDT’s discussion, the PDT viewed 245 mt as an upper limit on the GB yellowtail flounder catch advice for FY 2017. Any FY 2018 catch advice would be a placeholder until the TRAC assessment in 2017. 245 mt would be approximately a 100 mt reduction from the FY 2016 ABC of 354 mt. The PDT recognizes, while considering the information in the TRAC assessment, that it is unclear if catches are driving the dynamics of the GB yellowtail flounder stock. Further, a quota lower than 245 mt might not lead to a positive response in the GB yellowtail flounder stock, given that recent low quotas and low catches have not appeared to generate a biological response to date. 28
FY 2016 Scallop Management
29
Catch Performance – Scallop Fishery
30
LA Scallop Fishery allocations and CA2 access
31
SMAST Bycatch Avoidance Program
32
Scallop Fishery Effort
33
Scallop Fishery Effort 2014 - # of LA VTR Trips
2013 – # of LA VTR Trips
34
Scallop Fishery Effort 2012 - # of LA VTR Trips
2011 – # of LA VTR Trips
35
