Global Distribution of Oil and Gas - CCOP
NO MATH = A GEOLOGIST = A REAL JOB? Understanding Energy Flow and Policy Issues: The Pacific Rim
Stanford University
‘Global Distribution Of Oil, Gas and Coal’ Dr. Nahum Schneidermann ChevronTexaco Overseas Petroleum April 2003 020359.ppt p.1
Global Population Distribution
The World at Night
1
Core Business Technology Capabilities Are Deeper and Broader
U.S.A. Fossil Fuels Balance Production
Major Technology Programs
• Gas-to-liquids
Exports
Imports
OIL (1,000 b/d)
7,716
982
11,619
NATURAL GAS (Tcf)
19.36
0.39
4.03
Consumption
23.39
COAL (MM-Tons)
1,121
48.7
19.8
1,140.8
19,335
Where is the oil coming from?
• Shallow water operations
Jan-'03
• Gasification • Deepwater E&P • Heavy oil recovery and upgrading • Next-generation global IT infrastructure
14
1,611
Canada
1,621
12
1,356
Mexico
1566
12
1,394
Nigeria
798
7
842
Iraq
600
5
795
U.K.
411
3
244
Venezuela
399
3
1,291
Angola
245
2
321
Kuwait
134
1
237
Colombia
120
1
260
Solar, Wind Geothermal
World Energy Demand Coal
Nuclear Electric
Crude Oil
20
Heavy + Oil
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
Decreasing Fossil Fuels
Natural Gas
100
Hydrogen
Hydrogen/carbon ratio
100 BILLION BARRELS
New Technologies
80 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent 60 per Year (GBOE) 40
Decarbonization
Hydroelectric
1993
Dec-'01
1820
Projected World Energy Supplies
100
%-Total
Saudi Arabia
Methane Economy
10
Methane: H/C = 4 Oil: H/C = 2 1
Coal: H/C = 1
0.1
Wood H/C = 0.1
3000
1800 Edwards, AAPG 8/97
1850
Source: Ausubel, American Scientist, March-April 1996
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
Year
2
Vitrinite Reflectance vs. Principle Generation Zones
The Origin of Petroleum
Vitrinite Reflectance vs. Principle Generation Zones Ro
Generation Intensity Diagenetic Zone of Gas Formation
0.5
Increasing Depth and Temperature
0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 2.0
OrganicOrganic-rich Source Rock
Thermally Matured Organic Matter
Oil
Oil Window = Principal Zone of Oil Formation
0.6 % R o
1.1 % R o Principal Zone of Gas – Condensate Formation
Principal Zone of Gas Formation
Oil After Vassoevich et al 1975 001146.fh8
Known Oil Source Rocks
Petroleum System Elements
Anticlinal Trap
Top Seal Rock
(Impermeable)
Reservoir Rock
(Porous/Permeable)
Potential Migration Route
Source Rock
(Organic Rich)
24803
Excellent Good Fair
3
Resource Movement
Major Oil Regions
$$ P1D
P1 U
Prove d P4
P2
P3
Unproved
P5
Contingent Resources
P6
Prospect Database Discovered Reserve Opportunity Field Appreciation
020359.ppt p.4
125
Countries with over 1B BBL Oil Reserves
259.2
2001 Oil Reserves for Countries (Countries with >1Bbbl Oil Reserves)
75
50
B ill io n B a r r els
100
25
0
020359.ppt p.8
“Proved” Oil Reserves
CUMULATIVE PERCENT 25.9 37.1 46.5 55.7 64.7 72.5 77.4 80.3 83.0 85.4 87.8 90.0 91.5 92.4 93.3 94.1 94.7 95.2 95.7 96.2 96.7 97.2 97.7 98.1 98.5 98.9 99.3 99.6 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 100.0020359.ppt
SAUDI ARABIA IRAQ KUWAIT ABU DHABI IRAN VENEZUELA RUSSIA LIBYA MEXICO CHINA NIGERIA U.S.A. QATAR NORWAY ALGERIA BRAZIL OMAN ANGOLA KAZAKHSTAN INDONESIA U. K. INDIA CANADA BRUNEI-MALAYSIA YEMEN DUBAI OTHER C.I.S. AUSTRALIA ARGENTINA EGYPT SYRIA GABON ECUADOR COLOMBIA SHARJAH CONGO REP. AZERBAIJAN DENMARK
2001 World
PERCENT OF TOTAL 25.9 11.2 9.4 9.2 9.0 7.8 4.9 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
020359.ppt p.7
Distribution of
COUNTRY 2001 WORLD OIL RESERVES (1,025.9 B bbl) SAUDI ARABIA 259.2 IRAQ 112.5 KUWAIT 94.0 ABU DHABI 92.2 IRAN 89.7 VENEZUELA 77.6 RUSSIA 48.6 LIBYA 12 Countries 29.5 MEXICO hold 90 % of the 26.9 CHINA 24.0 World’s Proved NIGERIA 24.0 Oil Reserves U.S.A. 22.0 QATAR 15.2 NORWAY 9.4 ALGERIA 9.2 BRAZIL 8.4 OMAN 5.5 ANGOLA 5.4 KAZAKHSTAN 5.4 INDONESIA 5.0 U.K. 4.9 CANADA 4.8 INDIA 4.8 BRUNEI-MALAYSIA 4.3 DUBAI 4.0 YEMEN 4.0 OTHER C.I.S. 3.9 AUSTRALIA 3.5 ARGENTINA 3.0 EGYPT 2.9 GABON 2.5 SYRIA 2.5 ECUADOR 2.1 COLOMBIA 1.7 CONGO REP. 1.5 SHARJAH 1.5 AZERBAIJAN 1.2 DENMARK 1.1
020359.ppt
4
2001 Daily Oil Production (Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)
2001 Production Maturity Index (Produced / D.T.D.) SAUDI RUSSIA U.S.A. IRAN CHINA NORWAY MEXICO VENEZUELA IRAQ U. K. NIGERIA CANADA KUWAIT ABU DHABI LIBYA INDONESIA BRAZIL OMAN BRUNEIALGERIA ARGENTINA EGYPT ANGOLA QATAR INDIA AUSTRALIA COLOMBIA KAZAKHSTAN SYRIA OTHER C.I.S. ECUADOR YEMEN DENMARK GABON CONGO REP. AZERBAIJAN DUBAI SHARJAH
U.S.A. OTHER C.I.S. CANADA U.K. INDONESIA KAZAKHSTAN AZERBAIJAN COLOMBIA EGYPT ARGENTINA BRUNEI-MALAYSIA RUSSIA AUSTRALIA NORWAY SYRIA MEXICO ALGERIA ECUADOR DENMARK OMAN INDIA CHINA GABON NIGERIA DUBAI ANGOLA LIBYA CONGO REPUBLIC VENEZUELA BRAZIL IRAN QATAR SAUDI ARABIA KUWAIT YEMEN IRAQ SHARJAH ABU DHABI 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
1
2
3
4 5 M il li o n B a r r e l s / D a y
6
7
8
Maturity Index % 020359.ppt p.9
020359.ppt p.10
2001 Oil R/P Ratio (Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)
2001 Global Oil (Reserves / Production Ratio) ABU DHABI IRAQ KUWAIT SAUDI ARABIA VENEZUELA SHARJAH IRAN QATAR LIBYA DUBAI NIGERIA YEMEN ALGERIA KAZAKHSTAN OTHER C.I.S.* MEXICO GABON RUSSIA* ANGOLA INDIA CHINA BRAZIL CONGO OMAN AUSTRALIA ECUADOR AZERBAIJAN SYRIA BRUNEIINDONESIA EGYPT ARGENTINA U.S.A. DENMARK NORWAY COLOMBIA CANADA U. K.
OIL RESERVES (1,026 Bbbls)
Production Rate at 24 Bbbls / year 2001 43 years 2043 Undiscovered Reserves ?
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Years Remaining 020359.ppt p.12
020359.ppt p.13
5
Year to Which 2001 Production Level is Sustainable (Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)
Crude Oil Reserves of the United States (2001) Reserves vs. Production Ratio
ABU DHABI IRAQ KUWAIT SAUDI ARABIA VENEZUELA SHARJAH IRAN QATAR LIBYA DUBAI NIGERIA ALGERIA YEMEN KAZAKHSTAN OTHER C.I.S.* MEXICO ANGOLA RUSSIA* GABON CHINA INDIA BRAZIL CONGO ECUADOR AUSTRALIA OMAN BRUNEISYRIA AZERBAIJAN INDONESIA U.S.A. EGYPT ARGENTINA DENMARK NORWAY COLOMBIA U. K. CANADA
2001
Billion Barrels
Ratio 30
30 Reserve Production Ratio 25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5 .
0 2025
2050
2075
2100
2125
2150
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
2175
Year 020359.ppt p.14
OPEC vs. Non-OPEC 2001 Oil Well Producers (Number of Producing Oil Wells) U.S.A. C.I.S. CHINA CANADA VENEZUELA ARGENTINA INDONESIA BRAZIL INDIA MEXICO COLOMBIA OMAN NIGERIA OMAN NIGERIA IRAQ BRUNEI - MALAYSIA
539,754 60,898 72,255 53,302 15,277 14,238 8,535 6,888 3,386 2,991 2,492 2,298 2,374 2,374 2,298 1,685 1,567
SAUDI ARABIA LIBYA U.A.E. U.K. AUSTRALIA EGYPT ALGERIA IRAN ECUADOR KUWAIT NORWAY ANGOLA QATAR GABON
Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia includes PNZ.
020359.ppt p.15
OPEC Countries 2001 Oil Production Comparison (Barrels / Day / Well) 1,560 1,470 1,455 1,430 1,392 1,329 1,284 1,120 1,041 790 742 561 417 375
SAUDI ARABIA IRAN KUWAIT QATAR IRAQ U.A.E. LIBYA NIGERIA ALGERIA VENEZUELA INDONESIA
OPEC (Countries) Non-OPEC (Countries)
5,075 3,300 2,585 1,611 1,397 1,390 928 877 651 184 142
Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia includes PNZ
020359.ppt p.16
020359.ppt p.17
6
Non - OPEC Countries 2001 Oil Production Comparison
Petroleum Products One Barrel of Crude Oil Provides:
(Barrels / Day / Well) NORWAY U.K. ANGOLA MEXICO GABON BRUNEI-MALAYSIA EGYPT AUSTRALIA OMAN ECUADOR COLOMBIA INDIA BRAZIL C.I.S. ARGENTINA CHINA CANADA U.S.A.
5,289 1,723 1,422 1,007 872 611 552 512 406 377 224 186 164 57 52 45 40 10
Gasoline - 19.5 gallons
One Barrel = 42 gallons
Fuel Oil - 9.2 gallons Jet Fuel - 4.1 gallons Asphalt - 2.3 gallons Kerosene - 0.2 gallons Lubricants - 0.5 gallons Petrochemicals, other products - 6.2 gallons American Petroleum Institute, 1999
020359.ppt p.18
North America Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
Petrochemical Products More Than 3,000 Products
• Detergents - Cosmetics • Fertilizers - Weed Killers • Medicine - Antiseptics - Anesthetics • Plastics - Synthetic Fibers • Synthetic Rubber • Rust Preventatives • Liquid Petroleum Gas
20000 18000 16000
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990
American Petroleum Institute, 1999
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
14000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
020359.ppt p.26
7
Western Europe Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
Latin America Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
10000
14000
9000
12000
8000 7000
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
10000
6000
8000 5000
6000
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
4000 3000
4000
2000
2000
1000
0 1990
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
020359.ppt p.27
020359.ppt
Africa Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
Middle East Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
7000 22000 20000
6000
18000
5000
16000
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
4000
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
14000 12000 10000
3000
8000
2000
6000 4000
1000 2000
0 1990
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1990
2000
020359.ppt
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
020359.ppt
8
Asia & Far East Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
Major Gas Regions
18000 16000 14000 12000
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
020359.ppt p.31
Regional Gas Price Chart
020359.ppt p.20
Major Gas Pipelines
12.00
40.00
WTI WTI
35.00
10.00
25.00 6.00
20.00 15.00
US$/bbl
US$/mmbtu
30.00 8.00
4.00 10.00 2.00 5.00 0.00 Jan99
0.00 May99
Sep99
Jan00
May00
Sep00
Jan01
May01
HH Index
Troll Zeebrugge
Japan LNG CIF
Thailand
Japan LNG CIF
Thailand
WTI Mid ($/bbl)
WTI Mid ($/bbl)
Sep01 HH Index
Jan02 Troll Zeebrugge
9
Distribution of 2001 World “Proved” Gas Reserves Countries with over 10 Tcf Gas Reserves
2001 WORLD GAS RESERVES (5364.7 Tcf)
17 Countries hold over 90 % of the World’s Proved Gas Reserves
PERCENT OF TOTAL
1700.0 812.0 508.5 233.4 219.0 196.1 177.4 159.7 147.6 124.0 109.8 92.5 90.0 88.8 65.0 62.5 59.7 52.2 48.3 46.4 44.0 35.2 29.5 29.3 27.5 25.9 25.0 24.0 23.4 22.8 16.9 12.7 12.2 12.1 10.7 10.6 10.0
31.7 15.1 9.5 4.3 4.1 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
CUMULATIVE PERCENT 31.7 46.8 56.3 60.6 64.7 68.3 71.6 74.6 77.3 79.6 81.6 83.3 85.0 86.6 87.8 89.0 90.1 91.0 91.9 92.8 93.6 94.2 94.8 95.4 96.0 96.6 97.1 97.6 98.1 98.5 98.8 99.0 99.2 99.4 99.6 99.8 100.0020359.ppt
2001 Yearly Gas Production (Countries with > 10 TCF Gas Reserves) C.I.S. U.S.A. CANADA U. K. ALGERIA NETHERLANDS INDONESIA NORWAY BRUNEI-MALAYSIA IRAN MEXICO SAUDI ARABIA ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA INDIA VENEZUELA CHINA PAKISTAN QATAR ABU DHABI GERMANY THAILAND EGYPT TRINIDAD KUWAIT NIGERIA OMAN LIBYA BOLIVIA IRAQ MYANMAR (BURMA) BANGLADESH PAPUA N. GUINEA YEMEN SHARJAH 0
5
10
15
20
25
Trillio n C u b ic Feet / Year Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia production and/or number of wells, include half of Neutral Zone area. Data Source: Oil & Gas Journal, et. al.
020359.ppt p.7
COUNTRY RUSSIA IRAN QATAR OTHER C.I.S. SAUDI ARABIA ABU DHABI U.S.A. ALGERIA VENEZUELA NIGERIA IRAQ INDONESIA AUSTRALIA BRUNEI-MALAYSIA KAZAKHSTAN NETHERLANDS CANADA KUWAIT CHINA LIBYA NORWAY EGYPT MEXICO OMAN ARGENTINA U.K. PAKISTAN BOLIVIA TRINIDAD INDIA YEMEN THAILAND PAPUA NEW GUINEA GERMANY SHARJAH BANGLADESH MYANMAR (BURMA)
2001 Gas R/P Ratio (Countries with > 50 TCF Gas Reserves)
020359.ppt p.23
Natural Gas Reserves of the United States (2001) Reserves vs. Production Ratio
IRAQ
Trillion Cubic Feet
QATAR
Ratio
200
NIGERIA
20 Reserve Production Ratio
IRAN ABU DHABI KAZAKHSTAN KUWAIT
150
15
100
10
50
5
VENEZUELA SAUDI ARABIA RUSSIA AUSTRALIA ALGERIA BRUNEI-MALAYSIA INDONESIA OTHER C.I.S. NETHERLANDS U.S.A. CANADA
0 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Years Remaining 020359.ppt p.24
020359.ppt p.25
10
Natural Gas Value Chain
World Oil & Gas Proven Reserves To January 1, 2001
Residential
Gas Commercial
Distribution
OIL (Billion Barrels)
BOE (Barrels,Oil Equiv. of Gas)
GAS (Trillion Cubic Feet)
53.7
44.4
266.6
North America
94.3
41.7
250.3
South America
77.1
361.3
2168.1
Europe
76.5
63.6
381.9
Africa
680.8
328.6
1971.8
Middle East
43.5
71.6
429.4
Far East
1025.9
911.3
5468.1
WORLD TOTALS
Industrial
Power Gen
Large Industrial
E&P Pipeline
Transmission
Power Generation
Distribution 020359.ppt p.37
Coal Reserves Showing Regional Shares (at end of 1998)
Major Coal Producing & Consuming Countries (Million Short Tons) Producers
Source: BP Amoco
2001
China United States Australia India Russia South Africa Germany Poland North Korea Indonesia Ukraine
1,459 1,121 357 339 300 250 226 179 105 100 90
World
5,266
Exports (2000)* 60 58 206
77 18 63
604
Consumers
2001
China United States India Russia Germany South Africa Japan Poland Australia North Korea Ukraine
1,383 1,060 360 284 265 177 166 151 144 105 94
World
5,263
Imports (2000)* 13
160
600
Source: EIA International Energy Annual 2001 Includes all ranks of coal.
11
Major Trade Routes, 1998 (million tons per annum)
Major World Thermal Coal & Coking Coal Exporters
General global Coal Resources
Source: IEA
Global Hard Coal Consumption in 1997 – 3755 Mt
Generating Electricity from Coal
Stack Coal Supply
Electricity
Conveyor
Boiler
Steam turbine Generator
Pulveriser/Mill Substation / transformer Condenser Ash Systems
Source: IEA
Water Purification
Source: IEA
12
Electricity Consumption – MWh per capita
Source: IEA
Source: WEC
More Generating Capacity is Fueled by Gas 3500 Coal Projected
expected to dominate new and replacement capacity additions
b il li o n K W h
2500 Natural Gas
1500 Nuclear
500
Renewables Petroleum
-5001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
• Natural gas units
• Gas captures additional 13% of the power market by 2025
• Coal will remain the primary fuel for electricity generation
Source: EIA AEO2003
Source: IEA
13
Gas –The Shape Of Things To Come Global Energy Systems Transition Percent Of Market
100
so
1997
Hydrogen
s lid
Wood & hay
80
s se ga
Coal & nuclear
60 Natural gas
Oil & hydroelectric Petroleum oil
40
Oil & natural gas liquids liqu
“City Gas”
20
Whale oil
Natural gas
Actual gas consumption Actual liquids consumption Actual solids consumption ids
0 1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
Source: GHK Company
14
Stanford University
‘Global Distribution Of Oil, Gas and Coal’ Dr. Nahum Schneidermann ChevronTexaco Overseas Petroleum April 2003 020359.ppt p.1
Global Population Distribution
The World at Night
1
Core Business Technology Capabilities Are Deeper and Broader
U.S.A. Fossil Fuels Balance Production
Major Technology Programs
• Gas-to-liquids
Exports
Imports
OIL (1,000 b/d)
7,716
982
11,619
NATURAL GAS (Tcf)
19.36
0.39
4.03
Consumption
23.39
COAL (MM-Tons)
1,121
48.7
19.8
1,140.8
19,335
Where is the oil coming from?
• Shallow water operations
Jan-'03
• Gasification • Deepwater E&P • Heavy oil recovery and upgrading • Next-generation global IT infrastructure
14
1,611
Canada
1,621
12
1,356
Mexico
1566
12
1,394
Nigeria
798
7
842
Iraq
600
5
795
U.K.
411
3
244
Venezuela
399
3
1,291
Angola
245
2
321
Kuwait
134
1
237
Colombia
120
1
260
Solar, Wind Geothermal
World Energy Demand Coal
Nuclear Electric
Crude Oil
20
Heavy + Oil
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
Decreasing Fossil Fuels
Natural Gas
100
Hydrogen
Hydrogen/carbon ratio
100 BILLION BARRELS
New Technologies
80 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent 60 per Year (GBOE) 40
Decarbonization
Hydroelectric
1993
Dec-'01
1820
Projected World Energy Supplies
100
%-Total
Saudi Arabia
Methane Economy
10
Methane: H/C = 4 Oil: H/C = 2 1
Coal: H/C = 1
0.1
Wood H/C = 0.1
3000
1800 Edwards, AAPG 8/97
1850
Source: Ausubel, American Scientist, March-April 1996
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
Year
2
Vitrinite Reflectance vs. Principle Generation Zones
The Origin of Petroleum
Vitrinite Reflectance vs. Principle Generation Zones Ro
Generation Intensity Diagenetic Zone of Gas Formation
0.5
Increasing Depth and Temperature
0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 2.0
OrganicOrganic-rich Source Rock
Thermally Matured Organic Matter
Oil
Oil Window = Principal Zone of Oil Formation
0.6 % R o
1.1 % R o Principal Zone of Gas – Condensate Formation
Principal Zone of Gas Formation
Oil After Vassoevich et al 1975 001146.fh8
Known Oil Source Rocks
Petroleum System Elements
Anticlinal Trap
Top Seal Rock
(Impermeable)
Reservoir Rock
(Porous/Permeable)
Potential Migration Route
Source Rock
(Organic Rich)
24803
Excellent Good Fair
3
Resource Movement
Major Oil Regions
$$ P1D
P1 U
Prove d P4
P2
P3
Unproved
P5
Contingent Resources
P6
Prospect Database Discovered Reserve Opportunity Field Appreciation
020359.ppt p.4
125
Countries with over 1B BBL Oil Reserves
259.2
2001 Oil Reserves for Countries (Countries with >1Bbbl Oil Reserves)
75
50
B ill io n B a r r els
100
25
0
020359.ppt p.8
“Proved” Oil Reserves
CUMULATIVE PERCENT 25.9 37.1 46.5 55.7 64.7 72.5 77.4 80.3 83.0 85.4 87.8 90.0 91.5 92.4 93.3 94.1 94.7 95.2 95.7 96.2 96.7 97.2 97.7 98.1 98.5 98.9 99.3 99.6 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 100.0020359.ppt
SAUDI ARABIA IRAQ KUWAIT ABU DHABI IRAN VENEZUELA RUSSIA LIBYA MEXICO CHINA NIGERIA U.S.A. QATAR NORWAY ALGERIA BRAZIL OMAN ANGOLA KAZAKHSTAN INDONESIA U. K. INDIA CANADA BRUNEI-MALAYSIA YEMEN DUBAI OTHER C.I.S. AUSTRALIA ARGENTINA EGYPT SYRIA GABON ECUADOR COLOMBIA SHARJAH CONGO REP. AZERBAIJAN DENMARK
2001 World
PERCENT OF TOTAL 25.9 11.2 9.4 9.2 9.0 7.8 4.9 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
020359.ppt p.7
Distribution of
COUNTRY 2001 WORLD OIL RESERVES (1,025.9 B bbl) SAUDI ARABIA 259.2 IRAQ 112.5 KUWAIT 94.0 ABU DHABI 92.2 IRAN 89.7 VENEZUELA 77.6 RUSSIA 48.6 LIBYA 12 Countries 29.5 MEXICO hold 90 % of the 26.9 CHINA 24.0 World’s Proved NIGERIA 24.0 Oil Reserves U.S.A. 22.0 QATAR 15.2 NORWAY 9.4 ALGERIA 9.2 BRAZIL 8.4 OMAN 5.5 ANGOLA 5.4 KAZAKHSTAN 5.4 INDONESIA 5.0 U.K. 4.9 CANADA 4.8 INDIA 4.8 BRUNEI-MALAYSIA 4.3 DUBAI 4.0 YEMEN 4.0 OTHER C.I.S. 3.9 AUSTRALIA 3.5 ARGENTINA 3.0 EGYPT 2.9 GABON 2.5 SYRIA 2.5 ECUADOR 2.1 COLOMBIA 1.7 CONGO REP. 1.5 SHARJAH 1.5 AZERBAIJAN 1.2 DENMARK 1.1
020359.ppt
4
2001 Daily Oil Production (Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)
2001 Production Maturity Index (Produced / D.T.D.) SAUDI RUSSIA U.S.A. IRAN CHINA NORWAY MEXICO VENEZUELA IRAQ U. K. NIGERIA CANADA KUWAIT ABU DHABI LIBYA INDONESIA BRAZIL OMAN BRUNEIALGERIA ARGENTINA EGYPT ANGOLA QATAR INDIA AUSTRALIA COLOMBIA KAZAKHSTAN SYRIA OTHER C.I.S. ECUADOR YEMEN DENMARK GABON CONGO REP. AZERBAIJAN DUBAI SHARJAH
U.S.A. OTHER C.I.S. CANADA U.K. INDONESIA KAZAKHSTAN AZERBAIJAN COLOMBIA EGYPT ARGENTINA BRUNEI-MALAYSIA RUSSIA AUSTRALIA NORWAY SYRIA MEXICO ALGERIA ECUADOR DENMARK OMAN INDIA CHINA GABON NIGERIA DUBAI ANGOLA LIBYA CONGO REPUBLIC VENEZUELA BRAZIL IRAN QATAR SAUDI ARABIA KUWAIT YEMEN IRAQ SHARJAH ABU DHABI 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
1
2
3
4 5 M il li o n B a r r e l s / D a y
6
7
8
Maturity Index % 020359.ppt p.9
020359.ppt p.10
2001 Oil R/P Ratio (Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)
2001 Global Oil (Reserves / Production Ratio) ABU DHABI IRAQ KUWAIT SAUDI ARABIA VENEZUELA SHARJAH IRAN QATAR LIBYA DUBAI NIGERIA YEMEN ALGERIA KAZAKHSTAN OTHER C.I.S.* MEXICO GABON RUSSIA* ANGOLA INDIA CHINA BRAZIL CONGO OMAN AUSTRALIA ECUADOR AZERBAIJAN SYRIA BRUNEIINDONESIA EGYPT ARGENTINA U.S.A. DENMARK NORWAY COLOMBIA CANADA U. K.
OIL RESERVES (1,026 Bbbls)
Production Rate at 24 Bbbls / year 2001 43 years 2043 Undiscovered Reserves ?
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Years Remaining 020359.ppt p.12
020359.ppt p.13
5
Year to Which 2001 Production Level is Sustainable (Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)
Crude Oil Reserves of the United States (2001) Reserves vs. Production Ratio
ABU DHABI IRAQ KUWAIT SAUDI ARABIA VENEZUELA SHARJAH IRAN QATAR LIBYA DUBAI NIGERIA ALGERIA YEMEN KAZAKHSTAN OTHER C.I.S.* MEXICO ANGOLA RUSSIA* GABON CHINA INDIA BRAZIL CONGO ECUADOR AUSTRALIA OMAN BRUNEISYRIA AZERBAIJAN INDONESIA U.S.A. EGYPT ARGENTINA DENMARK NORWAY COLOMBIA U. K. CANADA
2001
Billion Barrels
Ratio 30
30 Reserve Production Ratio 25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5 .
0 2025
2050
2075
2100
2125
2150
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
2175
Year 020359.ppt p.14
OPEC vs. Non-OPEC 2001 Oil Well Producers (Number of Producing Oil Wells) U.S.A. C.I.S. CHINA CANADA VENEZUELA ARGENTINA INDONESIA BRAZIL INDIA MEXICO COLOMBIA OMAN NIGERIA OMAN NIGERIA IRAQ BRUNEI - MALAYSIA
539,754 60,898 72,255 53,302 15,277 14,238 8,535 6,888 3,386 2,991 2,492 2,298 2,374 2,374 2,298 1,685 1,567
SAUDI ARABIA LIBYA U.A.E. U.K. AUSTRALIA EGYPT ALGERIA IRAN ECUADOR KUWAIT NORWAY ANGOLA QATAR GABON
Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia includes PNZ.
020359.ppt p.15
OPEC Countries 2001 Oil Production Comparison (Barrels / Day / Well) 1,560 1,470 1,455 1,430 1,392 1,329 1,284 1,120 1,041 790 742 561 417 375
SAUDI ARABIA IRAN KUWAIT QATAR IRAQ U.A.E. LIBYA NIGERIA ALGERIA VENEZUELA INDONESIA
OPEC (Countries) Non-OPEC (Countries)
5,075 3,300 2,585 1,611 1,397 1,390 928 877 651 184 142
Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia includes PNZ
020359.ppt p.16
020359.ppt p.17
6
Non - OPEC Countries 2001 Oil Production Comparison
Petroleum Products One Barrel of Crude Oil Provides:
(Barrels / Day / Well) NORWAY U.K. ANGOLA MEXICO GABON BRUNEI-MALAYSIA EGYPT AUSTRALIA OMAN ECUADOR COLOMBIA INDIA BRAZIL C.I.S. ARGENTINA CHINA CANADA U.S.A.
5,289 1,723 1,422 1,007 872 611 552 512 406 377 224 186 164 57 52 45 40 10
Gasoline - 19.5 gallons
One Barrel = 42 gallons
Fuel Oil - 9.2 gallons Jet Fuel - 4.1 gallons Asphalt - 2.3 gallons Kerosene - 0.2 gallons Lubricants - 0.5 gallons Petrochemicals, other products - 6.2 gallons American Petroleum Institute, 1999
020359.ppt p.18
North America Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
Petrochemical Products More Than 3,000 Products
• Detergents - Cosmetics • Fertilizers - Weed Killers • Medicine - Antiseptics - Anesthetics • Plastics - Synthetic Fibers • Synthetic Rubber • Rust Preventatives • Liquid Petroleum Gas
20000 18000 16000
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990
American Petroleum Institute, 1999
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
14000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
020359.ppt p.26
7
Western Europe Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
Latin America Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
10000
14000
9000
12000
8000 7000
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
10000
6000
8000 5000
6000
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
4000 3000
4000
2000
2000
1000
0 1990
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
020359.ppt p.27
020359.ppt
Africa Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
Middle East Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
7000 22000 20000
6000
18000
5000
16000
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
4000
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
14000 12000 10000
3000
8000
2000
6000 4000
1000 2000
0 1990
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1990
2000
020359.ppt
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
020359.ppt
8
Asia & Far East Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products 1990 - 2000
Major Gas Regions
18000 16000 14000 12000
Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
020359.ppt p.31
Regional Gas Price Chart
020359.ppt p.20
Major Gas Pipelines
12.00
40.00
WTI WTI
35.00
10.00
25.00 6.00
20.00 15.00
US$/bbl
US$/mmbtu
30.00 8.00
4.00 10.00 2.00 5.00 0.00 Jan99
0.00 May99
Sep99
Jan00
May00
Sep00
Jan01
May01
HH Index
Troll Zeebrugge
Japan LNG CIF
Thailand
Japan LNG CIF
Thailand
WTI Mid ($/bbl)
WTI Mid ($/bbl)
Sep01 HH Index
Jan02 Troll Zeebrugge
9
Distribution of 2001 World “Proved” Gas Reserves Countries with over 10 Tcf Gas Reserves
2001 WORLD GAS RESERVES (5364.7 Tcf)
17 Countries hold over 90 % of the World’s Proved Gas Reserves
PERCENT OF TOTAL
1700.0 812.0 508.5 233.4 219.0 196.1 177.4 159.7 147.6 124.0 109.8 92.5 90.0 88.8 65.0 62.5 59.7 52.2 48.3 46.4 44.0 35.2 29.5 29.3 27.5 25.9 25.0 24.0 23.4 22.8 16.9 12.7 12.2 12.1 10.7 10.6 10.0
31.7 15.1 9.5 4.3 4.1 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
CUMULATIVE PERCENT 31.7 46.8 56.3 60.6 64.7 68.3 71.6 74.6 77.3 79.6 81.6 83.3 85.0 86.6 87.8 89.0 90.1 91.0 91.9 92.8 93.6 94.2 94.8 95.4 96.0 96.6 97.1 97.6 98.1 98.5 98.8 99.0 99.2 99.4 99.6 99.8 100.0020359.ppt
2001 Yearly Gas Production (Countries with > 10 TCF Gas Reserves) C.I.S. U.S.A. CANADA U. K. ALGERIA NETHERLANDS INDONESIA NORWAY BRUNEI-MALAYSIA IRAN MEXICO SAUDI ARABIA ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA INDIA VENEZUELA CHINA PAKISTAN QATAR ABU DHABI GERMANY THAILAND EGYPT TRINIDAD KUWAIT NIGERIA OMAN LIBYA BOLIVIA IRAQ MYANMAR (BURMA) BANGLADESH PAPUA N. GUINEA YEMEN SHARJAH 0
5
10
15
20
25
Trillio n C u b ic Feet / Year Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia production and/or number of wells, include half of Neutral Zone area. Data Source: Oil & Gas Journal, et. al.
020359.ppt p.7
COUNTRY RUSSIA IRAN QATAR OTHER C.I.S. SAUDI ARABIA ABU DHABI U.S.A. ALGERIA VENEZUELA NIGERIA IRAQ INDONESIA AUSTRALIA BRUNEI-MALAYSIA KAZAKHSTAN NETHERLANDS CANADA KUWAIT CHINA LIBYA NORWAY EGYPT MEXICO OMAN ARGENTINA U.K. PAKISTAN BOLIVIA TRINIDAD INDIA YEMEN THAILAND PAPUA NEW GUINEA GERMANY SHARJAH BANGLADESH MYANMAR (BURMA)
2001 Gas R/P Ratio (Countries with > 50 TCF Gas Reserves)
020359.ppt p.23
Natural Gas Reserves of the United States (2001) Reserves vs. Production Ratio
IRAQ
Trillion Cubic Feet
QATAR
Ratio
200
NIGERIA
20 Reserve Production Ratio
IRAN ABU DHABI KAZAKHSTAN KUWAIT
150
15
100
10
50
5
VENEZUELA SAUDI ARABIA RUSSIA AUSTRALIA ALGERIA BRUNEI-MALAYSIA INDONESIA OTHER C.I.S. NETHERLANDS U.S.A. CANADA
0 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Years Remaining 020359.ppt p.24
020359.ppt p.25
10
Natural Gas Value Chain
World Oil & Gas Proven Reserves To January 1, 2001
Residential
Gas Commercial
Distribution
OIL (Billion Barrels)
BOE (Barrels,Oil Equiv. of Gas)
GAS (Trillion Cubic Feet)
53.7
44.4
266.6
North America
94.3
41.7
250.3
South America
77.1
361.3
2168.1
Europe
76.5
63.6
381.9
Africa
680.8
328.6
1971.8
Middle East
43.5
71.6
429.4
Far East
1025.9
911.3
5468.1
WORLD TOTALS
Industrial
Power Gen
Large Industrial
E&P Pipeline
Transmission
Power Generation
Distribution 020359.ppt p.37
Coal Reserves Showing Regional Shares (at end of 1998)
Major Coal Producing & Consuming Countries (Million Short Tons) Producers
Source: BP Amoco
2001
China United States Australia India Russia South Africa Germany Poland North Korea Indonesia Ukraine
1,459 1,121 357 339 300 250 226 179 105 100 90
World
5,266
Exports (2000)* 60 58 206
77 18 63
604
Consumers
2001
China United States India Russia Germany South Africa Japan Poland Australia North Korea Ukraine
1,383 1,060 360 284 265 177 166 151 144 105 94
World
5,263
Imports (2000)* 13
160
600
Source: EIA International Energy Annual 2001 Includes all ranks of coal.
11
Major Trade Routes, 1998 (million tons per annum)
Major World Thermal Coal & Coking Coal Exporters
General global Coal Resources
Source: IEA
Global Hard Coal Consumption in 1997 – 3755 Mt
Generating Electricity from Coal
Stack Coal Supply
Electricity
Conveyor
Boiler
Steam turbine Generator
Pulveriser/Mill Substation / transformer Condenser Ash Systems
Source: IEA
Water Purification
Source: IEA
12
Electricity Consumption – MWh per capita
Source: IEA
Source: WEC
More Generating Capacity is Fueled by Gas 3500 Coal Projected
expected to dominate new and replacement capacity additions
b il li o n K W h
2500 Natural Gas
1500 Nuclear
500
Renewables Petroleum
-5001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
• Natural gas units
• Gas captures additional 13% of the power market by 2025
• Coal will remain the primary fuel for electricity generation
Source: EIA AEO2003
Source: IEA
13
Gas –The Shape Of Things To Come Global Energy Systems Transition Percent Of Market
100
so
1997
Hydrogen
s lid
Wood & hay
80
s se ga
Coal & nuclear
60 Natural gas
Oil & hydroelectric Petroleum oil
40
Oil & natural gas liquids liqu
“City Gas”
20
Whale oil
Natural gas
Actual gas consumption Actual liquids consumption Actual solids consumption ids
0 1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
Source: GHK Company
14
