Global Power Synergy
Global Power Synergy Underperform (17E TP Bt34.80)
Company Update
Close Bt34.75
Energy & Utilities August 16, 2016
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade / Overview unchanged
2Q16 operational peak; 2H16E earnings momentum capped Price Performance (%)
Solid earnings momentum; but demanding valuation Despite the company’s good earnings momentum in the next few years underpinned by the committed capacity expansion in the pipeline (546MW during 2017‐19E to reach 1,922MW in 2019E), the share price has largely priced this in with its 2017E PBV/ROE currently trading at 0.17x against the average of 0.13x of domestic peers; thus, we downgrade the rating to Underperform (from Outperform) with the rolled‐over 2017E SOTP‐based TP to Bt34.8/share. Meanwhile, the sizeable upside risk linked to Myanmar‐ exposure power projects will not see any development soon. Solid 2Q16 earnings, mainly from the operation line GPSC delivered 2Q16 NP of Bt687mn (+45% YoY, ‐21% QoQ) and core profit of Bt657mn (+9% YoY, ‐24% QoQ), with the commercial kickoff of IRPC‐CP Phase 1 (COD in Nov. 2015) and a more efficient production process from the optimization of the Rayong plant as the drivers YoY; meanwhile, the absence of dividend income from RPCL was the reason for the QoQ decline (vs. Bt180mn in 1Q16). It marked a high GPM of 17% in 2Q16 (vs. 16.1% in 1Q16), likely to be the peak quarter, mostly attributable to the higher demand of power and steam from customers at Rayong Central Utility Plants 1‐3 (CUP 1‐3) and IRPC‐CP Phase 1, as well as higher K and weight factors during the summer season.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.689
2.035
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐2.3%
‐0.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
GPSC.BK/GPSC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,498.30
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
52.00/1,504.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.95
52 week High / Low (Bt)
40.25/21.40
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
5,077.00
NVDR (%)
1.01
Estimated free float (%)
24.89
Beta
0.85
URL
www.gpscgroup.com ‐
CGR Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Upward earnings revision during 2016‐18E We make an upward earnings revision in 2016‐18E by 20%/16%/15% to reflect 1) the fine‐tuning of the GPM, particularly in the case of Rayong CUP 1‐3 to 20% during the period, given the increasingly efficient production process; and 2) higher‐than‐expected other income, mainly due to dividend income from RPCL. Our newly‐revised 2016E forecast calls for earnings deceleration in 2H16E (1H16 NP accounted for 63% of our full‐year forecast), with a series of planned shutdowns at Rayong CUP 1‐3, Sriracha Power Plant, and IRPC‐CP. Meanwhile, the scheduled kickoff of IRPC‐CP Phase 2 and Bangpa‐In Cogeneration Phase 2 by mid‐2017E will be the earnings catalysts in 2017E. We also roll over our SOTP‐based TP to 2017 at Bt34.8/share, leaving solar Japan (Ichinoseki; 20.8MW, COD 4Q17) and CUP‐ 4 (Phase 1: 45 MW, target COD in 1Q18) as the source of upside risk to our earnings estimates and TP. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 23,755 1,581 1.41 6.56 0.10 22.50
2015 22,543 1,906 1.40 (0.20) 0.95 24.03
2016E 26,145 2,473 1.65 17.60 1.15 24.66
2017E 31,160 3,033 2.02 22.65 1.21 25.54
2018E 33,996 3,255 2.17 7.30 1.30 26.49
2014 24.71 17.72 1.54 0.3% 6.4% 41.1%
2015 24.76 20.13 1.45 2.7% 6.2% 12.3%
2016E 21.05 16.97 1.41 3.3% 6.8% 26.6%
2017E 17.16 12.40 1.36 3.5% 8.1% 23.2%
2018E 16.00 11.78 1.31 3.8% 8.4% 19.9%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
Figure 1: GPSC’s 2Q16 earnings review
Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q15 6,609 709 858 (100) 36 (33) (48) (79) 79 24 474 601 0.39 10.7 13.0 7.2 3.2 5.9 0.4 23.8 5.3
1Q16 5,505 885 1,025 (105) 237 (26) 8 ‐ 86 (43) 871 862 0.58 16.1 18.6 15.8 3.6 6.8 0.4 24.6 9.4
2Q16 5,583 947 1,055 (104) 48 (70) 29 ‐ 89 (49) 687 657 0.46 17.0 18.9 12.3 3.3 7.1 0.4 24.5 7.5
% YoY (15.5) 33.6 23.0 3.9 32.8 111.3 nm (100.0) 13.1 nm 44.9 9.3 17.9
% QoQ 1.4 7.0 2.9 (0.9) (79.8) 164.0 250.9 nm 3.7 12.9 (21.1) (23.8) (20.7)
1H15 13,061 1,386 1,659 (203) 58 (53) (41) (79) 162 24 1,005 1,125 0.82 10.6 12.7 7.7 3.2 5.6 0.4 23.8 5.6
1H16 11,088 1,831 2,081 (209) 285 (96) 38 0 175 (92) 1,557 1,519 1.04 16.5 18.8 14.0 3.3 7.0 0.4 24.5 8.5
% YoY (15.1) 32.1 25.4 2.9 388.2 81.7 nm (100.0) 7.9 nm 54.9 35.1 26.8
2015 22,543 2,273 2,764 (394) 478 (90) (46) (79) 339 17 1,906 2,031 1.40 10.1 12.3 8.5 3.6 4.3 0.4 24.0 6.2
2016E 26,145 2,921 3,602 (270) 280 (292) ‐ ‐ 493 (210) 2,473 2,473 1.65 11.2 13.8 9.5 3.3 9.2 0.5 24.7 6.8
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: GPSC’s committed capacity growth in the pipeline Source: The company
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
% YoY 16.0 28.5 30.3 (31.4) (41.4) 224.9 (100.0) (100.0) 45.5 nm 29.8 21.8 17.6
% YTD 42.4 62.7 57.8 77.3 101.7 32.8 nm nm 35.6 43.7 63.0 61.4 63.0
Figure 3: Scheduled maintenance shutdowns in 2016 Source: The company REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E-net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long-term debt Total liabilities Paid-up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 25,703 (23,750) 1,953 (281) 2,663 991 1,672 (601) 185 1,256 (2) (23) (90) 2 5 1,148 1.32 1.02 1,261 1.12 0.00
2014 23,755 (21,665) 2,090 (410) 2,722 1,043 1,680 (470) 135 1,345 (27) (8) 0 268 3 1,581 1.41 1.41 1,588 1.41 0.10
2015 22,543 (20,270) 2,273 (591) 2,764 1,082 1,682 (394) 478 1,765 (90) (46) (79) 339 17 1,906 1.40 1.27 2,031 1.36 0.95
2016E 26,145 (23,224) 2,921 (448) 3,602 1,128 2,473 (270) 280 2,483 (292) 0 0 493 (210) 2,473 1.65 1.65 2,473 1.65 1.15
2017E 31,160 (27,404) 3,755 (471) 4,859 1,575 3,284 (531) 250 3,003 (264) 0 0 636 (342) 3,033 2.02 2.02 3,033 2.02 1.21
2018E 33,996 (30,052) 3,944 (501) 5,034 1,591 3,443 (440) 220 3,223 (271) 0 0 722 (419) 3,255 2.17 2.17 3,255 2.17 1.30
2013 7,296 4,999 389 18,178 12,482 43,344 2,614 10,384 18,983 11,237 23,927 434 43,344
2014 3,603 3,013 359 20,048 15,909 42,932 1,595 11,197 16,914 11,237 25,285 733 42,932
2015 11,421 2,849 406 23,467 17,840 55,983 1,595 13,394 18,855 14,983 36,006 1,122 55,983
2016E 7,870 3,582 445 28,978 17,900 58,774 1,394 15,524 20,495 14,983 36,947 1,332 58,774
2017E 7,336 4,268 526 27,785 19,343 59,258 2,312 13,212 19,323 14,983 38,262 1,673 59,258
2018E 5,949 4,657 576 26,581 21,152 58,915 2,312 10,900 17,126 14,983 39,697 2,092 58,915
2013 1,148 23 991 (1,762) 400 (22,053)
2014 1,581 8 1,043 549 3,180 (7,370)
2015 1,906 46 1,082 (1,358) 1,676 (5,438)
2016E 2,473 0 1,128 (1,216) 2,385 (7,194)
2017E 3,033 0 1,575 (810) 3,798 (2,190)
2018E 3,255 0 1,591 (600) 4,246 (2,543)
(22,053) 12,998 22,786 0 (6,835) 28,949 7,296 (21,653) (19.27)
(7,370) (207) 48 0 656 497 (3,693) (4,190) (3.73)
(5,438) 2,197 9,283 (112) 212 11,580 7,818 (3,762) (2.51)
(7,194) 1,929 174 (1,423) 578 1,258 (3,551) (4,809) (3.21)
(2,190) (1,394) 294 (1,719) 677 (2,142) (533) 1,609 1.07
(2,543) (2,312) 303 (1,820) 738 (3,090) (1,387) 1,703 1.14
2013 na na na 7.6 10.4 6.5 4.5 4.9 0.1
2014 (7.6) 2.2 6.6 8.8 11.5 7.1 6.7 6.7 2.0
2015 (5.1) 1.5 (0.2) 10.1 12.3 7.5 8.5 9.0 5.1
2016E 16.0 30.3 17.6 11.2 13.8 9.5 9.5 9.5 11.8
2017E 19.2 34.9 22.7 12.1 15.6 10.5 9.7 9.7 8.8
2018E 9.1 3.6 7.3 11.6 14.8 10.1 9.6 9.6 8.4
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt34.75
Energy & Utilities August 16, 2016
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade / Overview unchanged
2Q16 operational peak; 2H16E earnings momentum capped Price Performance (%)
Solid earnings momentum; but demanding valuation Despite the company’s good earnings momentum in the next few years underpinned by the committed capacity expansion in the pipeline (546MW during 2017‐19E to reach 1,922MW in 2019E), the share price has largely priced this in with its 2017E PBV/ROE currently trading at 0.17x against the average of 0.13x of domestic peers; thus, we downgrade the rating to Underperform (from Outperform) with the rolled‐over 2017E SOTP‐based TP to Bt34.8/share. Meanwhile, the sizeable upside risk linked to Myanmar‐ exposure power projects will not see any development soon. Solid 2Q16 earnings, mainly from the operation line GPSC delivered 2Q16 NP of Bt687mn (+45% YoY, ‐21% QoQ) and core profit of Bt657mn (+9% YoY, ‐24% QoQ), with the commercial kickoff of IRPC‐CP Phase 1 (COD in Nov. 2015) and a more efficient production process from the optimization of the Rayong plant as the drivers YoY; meanwhile, the absence of dividend income from RPCL was the reason for the QoQ decline (vs. Bt180mn in 1Q16). It marked a high GPM of 17% in 2Q16 (vs. 16.1% in 1Q16), likely to be the peak quarter, mostly attributable to the higher demand of power and steam from customers at Rayong Central Utility Plants 1‐3 (CUP 1‐3) and IRPC‐CP Phase 1, as well as higher K and weight factors during the summer season.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.689
2.035
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐2.3%
‐0.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
GPSC.BK/GPSC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,498.30
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
52.00/1,504.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.95
52 week High / Low (Bt)
40.25/21.40
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
5,077.00
NVDR (%)
1.01
Estimated free float (%)
24.89
Beta
0.85
URL
www.gpscgroup.com ‐
CGR Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Upward earnings revision during 2016‐18E We make an upward earnings revision in 2016‐18E by 20%/16%/15% to reflect 1) the fine‐tuning of the GPM, particularly in the case of Rayong CUP 1‐3 to 20% during the period, given the increasingly efficient production process; and 2) higher‐than‐expected other income, mainly due to dividend income from RPCL. Our newly‐revised 2016E forecast calls for earnings deceleration in 2H16E (1H16 NP accounted for 63% of our full‐year forecast), with a series of planned shutdowns at Rayong CUP 1‐3, Sriracha Power Plant, and IRPC‐CP. Meanwhile, the scheduled kickoff of IRPC‐CP Phase 2 and Bangpa‐In Cogeneration Phase 2 by mid‐2017E will be the earnings catalysts in 2017E. We also roll over our SOTP‐based TP to 2017 at Bt34.8/share, leaving solar Japan (Ichinoseki; 20.8MW, COD 4Q17) and CUP‐ 4 (Phase 1: 45 MW, target COD in 1Q18) as the source of upside risk to our earnings estimates and TP. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 23,755 1,581 1.41 6.56 0.10 22.50
2015 22,543 1,906 1.40 (0.20) 0.95 24.03
2016E 26,145 2,473 1.65 17.60 1.15 24.66
2017E 31,160 3,033 2.02 22.65 1.21 25.54
2018E 33,996 3,255 2.17 7.30 1.30 26.49
2014 24.71 17.72 1.54 0.3% 6.4% 41.1%
2015 24.76 20.13 1.45 2.7% 6.2% 12.3%
2016E 21.05 16.97 1.41 3.3% 6.8% 26.6%
2017E 17.16 12.40 1.36 3.5% 8.1% 23.2%
2018E 16.00 11.78 1.31 3.8% 8.4% 19.9%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
Figure 1: GPSC’s 2Q16 earnings review
Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q15 6,609 709 858 (100) 36 (33) (48) (79) 79 24 474 601 0.39 10.7 13.0 7.2 3.2 5.9 0.4 23.8 5.3
1Q16 5,505 885 1,025 (105) 237 (26) 8 ‐ 86 (43) 871 862 0.58 16.1 18.6 15.8 3.6 6.8 0.4 24.6 9.4
2Q16 5,583 947 1,055 (104) 48 (70) 29 ‐ 89 (49) 687 657 0.46 17.0 18.9 12.3 3.3 7.1 0.4 24.5 7.5
% YoY (15.5) 33.6 23.0 3.9 32.8 111.3 nm (100.0) 13.1 nm 44.9 9.3 17.9
% QoQ 1.4 7.0 2.9 (0.9) (79.8) 164.0 250.9 nm 3.7 12.9 (21.1) (23.8) (20.7)
1H15 13,061 1,386 1,659 (203) 58 (53) (41) (79) 162 24 1,005 1,125 0.82 10.6 12.7 7.7 3.2 5.6 0.4 23.8 5.6
1H16 11,088 1,831 2,081 (209) 285 (96) 38 0 175 (92) 1,557 1,519 1.04 16.5 18.8 14.0 3.3 7.0 0.4 24.5 8.5
% YoY (15.1) 32.1 25.4 2.9 388.2 81.7 nm (100.0) 7.9 nm 54.9 35.1 26.8
2015 22,543 2,273 2,764 (394) 478 (90) (46) (79) 339 17 1,906 2,031 1.40 10.1 12.3 8.5 3.6 4.3 0.4 24.0 6.2
2016E 26,145 2,921 3,602 (270) 280 (292) ‐ ‐ 493 (210) 2,473 2,473 1.65 11.2 13.8 9.5 3.3 9.2 0.5 24.7 6.8
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: GPSC’s committed capacity growth in the pipeline Source: The company
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
% YoY 16.0 28.5 30.3 (31.4) (41.4) 224.9 (100.0) (100.0) 45.5 nm 29.8 21.8 17.6
% YTD 42.4 62.7 57.8 77.3 101.7 32.8 nm nm 35.6 43.7 63.0 61.4 63.0
Figure 3: Scheduled maintenance shutdowns in 2016 Source: The company REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E-net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long-term debt Total liabilities Paid-up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 25,703 (23,750) 1,953 (281) 2,663 991 1,672 (601) 185 1,256 (2) (23) (90) 2 5 1,148 1.32 1.02 1,261 1.12 0.00
2014 23,755 (21,665) 2,090 (410) 2,722 1,043 1,680 (470) 135 1,345 (27) (8) 0 268 3 1,581 1.41 1.41 1,588 1.41 0.10
2015 22,543 (20,270) 2,273 (591) 2,764 1,082 1,682 (394) 478 1,765 (90) (46) (79) 339 17 1,906 1.40 1.27 2,031 1.36 0.95
2016E 26,145 (23,224) 2,921 (448) 3,602 1,128 2,473 (270) 280 2,483 (292) 0 0 493 (210) 2,473 1.65 1.65 2,473 1.65 1.15
2017E 31,160 (27,404) 3,755 (471) 4,859 1,575 3,284 (531) 250 3,003 (264) 0 0 636 (342) 3,033 2.02 2.02 3,033 2.02 1.21
2018E 33,996 (30,052) 3,944 (501) 5,034 1,591 3,443 (440) 220 3,223 (271) 0 0 722 (419) 3,255 2.17 2.17 3,255 2.17 1.30
2013 7,296 4,999 389 18,178 12,482 43,344 2,614 10,384 18,983 11,237 23,927 434 43,344
2014 3,603 3,013 359 20,048 15,909 42,932 1,595 11,197 16,914 11,237 25,285 733 42,932
2015 11,421 2,849 406 23,467 17,840 55,983 1,595 13,394 18,855 14,983 36,006 1,122 55,983
2016E 7,870 3,582 445 28,978 17,900 58,774 1,394 15,524 20,495 14,983 36,947 1,332 58,774
2017E 7,336 4,268 526 27,785 19,343 59,258 2,312 13,212 19,323 14,983 38,262 1,673 59,258
2018E 5,949 4,657 576 26,581 21,152 58,915 2,312 10,900 17,126 14,983 39,697 2,092 58,915
2013 1,148 23 991 (1,762) 400 (22,053)
2014 1,581 8 1,043 549 3,180 (7,370)
2015 1,906 46 1,082 (1,358) 1,676 (5,438)
2016E 2,473 0 1,128 (1,216) 2,385 (7,194)
2017E 3,033 0 1,575 (810) 3,798 (2,190)
2018E 3,255 0 1,591 (600) 4,246 (2,543)
(22,053) 12,998 22,786 0 (6,835) 28,949 7,296 (21,653) (19.27)
(7,370) (207) 48 0 656 497 (3,693) (4,190) (3.73)
(5,438) 2,197 9,283 (112) 212 11,580 7,818 (3,762) (2.51)
(7,194) 1,929 174 (1,423) 578 1,258 (3,551) (4,809) (3.21)
(2,190) (1,394) 294 (1,719) 677 (2,142) (533) 1,609 1.07
(2,543) (2,312) 303 (1,820) 738 (3,090) (1,387) 1,703 1.14
2013 na na na 7.6 10.4 6.5 4.5 4.9 0.1
2014 (7.6) 2.2 6.6 8.8 11.5 7.1 6.7 6.7 2.0
2015 (5.1) 1.5 (0.2) 10.1 12.3 7.5 8.5 9.0 5.1
2016E 16.0 30.3 17.6 11.2 13.8 9.5 9.5 9.5 11.8
2017E 19.2 34.9 22.7 12.1 15.6 10.5 9.7 9.7 8.8
2018E 9.1 3.6 7.3 11.6 14.8 10.1 9.6 9.6 8.4
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
