GMS and ASEAN Development Gaps: A Comparative Introduction to GMS Countries By Yann Duval, Trade Investment Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
ARTNeT GMS Workshop on Bridging the Development Gaps in the GMS, 1-2 June 2009, Hanoi
Overview of the presentation • Comparative data on GMS countries – – – –
Macroeconomic Socio‐economic Trade Governance
• Current picture and trends since 1992
Selected GMS Macro‐economic indicators
Population, Economic Size, GDP growth and GDP per capita GMS Countries China Yunnan
Camb.
Lao Myanmar Thailand Viet Nam
GMS
ASEAN
(Avg.)
( Avg.)
Population (millions; 2006)
1,312
45
14
6
48
63
84
43
56
GDP (US$ billions, constant 2000 )
2,096
58
6
3
N/A
165
48
56
88
GDP growth (%; 2006)
11 %
12 %
11 %
8%
N/A
5%
8%
8%
7%
GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$; 2006)
1,598
1,294
445
439
N/A
2,601
576
1,327
1,552
Source: World Bank WDI June, 2008; year 2006 Yunnan data derived from Yunnan Bureau of Statistics, 2008 GMS average excludes China data in calculation GMS average and ASEAN average for GDP per capita exclude Myanmar data in calculation
GMS, ASEAN and China Population Size (Millions; 2006) GMS total: 261
CAM 14
China: 1,312
Yun 45
VN 84
LAO 6
MYA 48
TH 63
Other ASEAN 340
Data Source: World Bank WDI June, 2008 (constant 2,000 US$) Data for Myanmar not available in WDI *Yunnan data derived from Yunnan Bureau of Statistics, 2008
GMS, ASEAN and China GDP (US$ Billions; 2006) GMS total: 280 CAM 6 LAO 3
China: 2,096
Yun 58
VN 48
TH 165
Other ASEAN 566
MYA ?
Data Source: World Bank WDI June, 2008 (constant 2,000 US$) Data for Myanmar not available in WDI *Yunnan data derived from Yunnan Bureau of Statistics, 2008
Economic Growth of GMS
GMS Economic Development
Singapore (US$ 27,125)
GMS & ASEAN
Brunei (US$ 18,304)
GDP per Capita 2006
Malaysia (US$ 4,535)
(Constant 2,000 US$)
Thailand (US$ 2,601) China (US$ 1,598) Yunnan* (US$ 1,294) Philippines (US$ 1,154) Indonesia (US$ 983) Myanmar (?) Viet Nam (US$ 576) Source: World Bank WDI June, 2008 Data for Myanmar not available in WDI
Cambodia (US$ 445) Lao PDR (US$ 439)
*Yunnan data derived from Yunnan Bureau of Statistics, 2008 Original Yunnan data in Chinese Yuan Conversion rate as of June 13, 2008: 1 USD = 6.8985 CNY, Yahoo! Finance
GMS Economic Structure (2006) GMS Countries China Yunnan
Camb.
Lao Thailand
GMS
ASEAN
Myanmar
Viet Nam
(Avg.)
( Avg.)
Agriculture (as % of GDP)
12 %
19 %
30 %
42 %
11 %
N/A
20 %
14 %
11 %
Industry (as % of GDP)
48 %
35 %
26 %
32 %
45 %
N/A
42 %
44 %
43 %
Services (as % of GDP)
40 %
38 %
44 %
26 %
45 %
N/A
38 %
43 %
47 %
Source: World Bank WDI June, 2008, for year 2006 Yunnan data derived from Yunnan Bureau of Statistics, 2008 GMS average excludes China data in calculation GMS average and ASEAN average exclude Myanmar data in calculation
Total Debt Service, Aid and Aid per capita (2006) GMS Countries
ASEAN
(Avg.)
( Avg.)
Thailand
Myanmar
Viet Nam
5.6 %
7.3 %
N/A
1.5 %
3.7 %
5.2 %
34 %
33 %
-0.4 %
N/A
8%
3%
2%
37
63
-3
3
22
12
9
China
Yunnan
Camb.
Lao
Total debt service (as % of GNI; 2006)
1.0 %
N/A
0.4 %
Aid (% of gross capital formation; 2006)
0.1 %
N/A
1
N/A
Aid per capita (US$; 2006)
GMS
Source: World Bank WDI June, 2008 GMS average excludes China data in calculation Averages for total debt service are simple averages due to unavailability of GNI (constant 2000 US$) in WDI database.
Selected GMS Socio‐economic indicators
GMS Economic Structure (2006) GMS Countries China Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24 (%; 2006)
65 % %
Literacy rate, youth total (% of people ages 15-24; 2000)
99 %
GMS
ASEAN
Camb.
Lao
Thailand
Myanmar
Viet Nam
(Avg.)
( Avg.)
63 %
54 %
46 %
58 %
66 %
57 %
49 %
N/A
N/A
98 %
95 %
N/A
96 %
97 %
6 3
Source: World Bank WDI June, 2008 GMS average excludes China data in calculation. All averages are simple averages.
Employment by Sector of Activity (% of total employment; 2001)
GMS Countries
GMS
ASEAN
China
Camb.
Lao
Thailand
Myanmar
Viet Nam
(Avg.)
( Avg.)
Employment in agriculture
45 %
70 %
N/A
46 %
N/A
64 %
60 %
35 %
Employment in industry
17 %
11 %
N/A
19 %
N/A
14 %
15 %
20 %
Employment in services
13 %
19 %
N/A
35 %
N/A
22 %
25 %
45 %
Source: World Bank WDI June, 2008 GMS average excludes China data in calculation. All averages are simple averages.
GMS Countries China Yunnan
Camb.
Lao Thailand
Myanmar
Viet Nam
GMS
ASEAN
(Avg.)
( Avg.)
Agriculture (as % of GDP)
12 %
19 %
30 %
42 %
11 %
N/A
20 %
14 %
11 %
Industry (as % of GDP)
48 %
35 %
26 %
32 %
45 %
N/A
42 %
44 %
43 %
Services (as % of GDP)
40 %
38 %
44 %
26 %
45 %
N/A
38 %
43 %
47 %
Human Development (Human Development Index 2005) 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Thailand
China
Viet Nam
HDI
Lao
Cambodia Myanmar Singapore
GMS Average
Brunei
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia
ASEAN Average
*indicators of life expectancy, educational attainment and income combined into a composite human development index. Source: Human Development Reports 2007/2008, UNDP. HDI calculated based on year 2005 data http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/hdr_20072008_tables.pdf
Human Development* (trends)
*indicator of life expectancy, educational attainment and income combined into a composite human development index. http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/
Human Poverty Indicator (2007‐8)*
*The HPI represents the extent of poverty in a country. It uses indicators of the most basic dimensions of deprivation: a short life, lack of basic education and lack of access to public and private resources Data Source: http://hdr.undp.org/external/flash/hdi_map/stats_hpi-1.html
Poverty Headcount Ratio at National Poverty Line (% of Population) 47
Poverty headcount ratio (% of population)
50 45 40
45 37.4
35
33
35 30
28.9
25 20 15 10 5
9.8 6
0 China (PRC)
Cambodia
Lao PDR
1992 - 2000 Source: World Bank WDI 2008 Myanmar data not available Data during 1992 - 2000 are figures in years closest to 1992 Data during 2001 - 2008 are figures in years closest to 2008 China and Thailand's data during 2001 - 2008 not available
Thailand 2001 - 2008
Viet Nam
Change in GMS within‐country Inequality (1990s to 2000s)* China Cambodia Lao PDR Viet Nam Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Thailand -5
0
5
10
*Measured as % change in the Gini Coefficient for expenditure or income distribution. Data years vary across countries depending on data availability.
Selected GMS Trade and Trade Integration indicators
Bilateral Trade of GMS Countries 2006 (Export & Import Values, US$ millions) China
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Myanmar
Thailand
Viet Nam
Export
-
698
169
1,207
9,764
7,463
Import
-
35
50
253
17,962
2,486
Export
47
-
0.09
553
36
49
Import
781
-
3
0.05
246
286
Export
50
N/A
-
N/A
500
N/A
Import
169
N/A
-
N/A
1,022
N/A
Export
253
N/A
N/A
-
2,341
N/A
Import
1,207
N/A
N/A
-
762
N/A
Export
11,774
1,252
1,022
762
-
3,092
Import
13,617
35
500
2,341
-
906
Export
3,243
781
95
16
898
-
Import
7,391
169
167
65
3,034
-
(reporter) China
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Myanmar
Thailand
Viet Nam
Source: Data for China, Cambodia, Thailand and Viet Nam derived from COMTRADE database, June 2008 Data for Lao PDR and Myanmar derived from Trade Map, ITC UNCTAD/WTO (www.trademap.org) Cambodia data estimated using average annual growth (2000-2004)
Changes in GMS Intraregional Trade
Evolution of GMS Countries' Participation in ASEAN Intraregional Trade
Dependence on Exports to GMS, ASEAN, Non-GMS ASEAN and World (2006)
Calculated as EXPORT as % of GDP
Growth Rates of Export, Import and Total Trade 2006 China
Cambodia
Lao
Myanmar
Thailand
Viet Nam
Export growth (%, 2006)
28 %
24 %
57 %
N/A
29 %
6%
Import growth (%, 2006)
23 %
28 %
37 %
N/A
23 %
26 %
Total trade growth (%, 2006) Trade with ASEAN :
26 %
28 %
42 %
N/A
26 %
19 %
Export growth (%, 2006)
29 %
-18 %
62 %
N/A
14 %
12 %
Import growth (%, 2006)
19 %
9%
21 %
N/A
10 %
35 %
Total trade growth (%, 2006) Trade with the World* :
23 %
6%
32 %
N/A
12 %
26 %
Export growth (annual %, 2002-2006)
31 %
18 %
35 %
15 %
18 %
26 %
Import growth (annual %, 2002-2006)
28 %
19 %
25 %
7%
20 %
23 %
Trade with GMS :
Source: COMTRADE database, June 2008 For trade with GMS and ASEAN, base year 2005 Cambodia data estimated using average annual growth (2004-2005) Myanmar trade data 2006 not available For Lao PDR, data derived from Trade Map (www.trademap.org) China's trade with ASEAN represents bilateral trade with ASEAN group, not intraregional trade Data for trade with the world derived from Trade Map (www.trademap.org)
Growth of GMS countries Intra-GMS Trade
Growth of Trade with ASEAN
Growth of Trade with the World
Intra‐GMS trade has grown faster than trade with ASEAN or the World
… but remains relatively insignificant (except for the smallest countries, Lao PDR in particular) % of total trade with the world
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 GMS intraregional trade ratio (%)
ASEAN intraregional trade ratio (%)
Non-GMS ASEAN intraregional trade ratio (%)
Source: COMTRADE database, June 2008 Non-GMS ASEAN includes Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore
Logistics Performance in the GMS (Performance scale from 1 to 5; 1= low)*
*World Bank Logistics Performance Indicators (LPI); figure based on Layton (2008)
Time for Exports GMS compared with ASEAN and Singapore
Days
60
50
40
GMS Average
30
20
10
0
Time for export (days)
Thailand
China
Vietnam
Cambodia
Lao PDR
ASEAN Average
Singapore
17
21
24
37
50
23.8
5
Countries and GMS Average
Other indicators (governance)
Corruption Perception Index (