Grains & Oilseeds Outlook
Grains & Oilseeds Outlook
International Weather • FSU-WESTERN: Unseasonably mild weather returned to major winter wheat producing areas in Ukraine and Russia, melting protective snow cover. • EUROPE: Rain and snow benefited dormant to semi-dormant winter grains and oilseeds across much of the region, while above-normal temperatures maintained faster-than-normal crop development in southeastern Europe. • AUSTRALIA: Mostly dry, unseasonably warm weather hampered development of immature cotton and sorghum, but aided dry down of maturing summer crops. • EASTERN ASIA: Mild weather and light rainfall favored overwintering wheat and rapeseed. • ARGENTINA: Conditions remained mostly favorable for summer grains, oilseeds, and cotton in major production areas of central and northern Argentina, although some locations experienced unseasonable dryness. • BRAZIL: Moderate to heavy showers maintained adequate to locally excessive moisture for immature summer crops, including soybeans. • NORTHWEST AFRICA: Additional showers boosted prospects for vegetative winter grains.
Wheat: Situation & Outlook
Canada: Durum Supply and Disposition Crop Year [a]
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
Seeded Area (kha)
2,230
2,341
1,760
Harvested Area (kha)
2,141
2,297
1,738
Yield (t/ha)
2,32
2,58
2,20
Production (kt)
4,962
5,915
3,821
Imports [b] (kt)
1
1
1
Total Supply (kt)
6,752
8,402
7,088
Exports (kt)
3,218
4,269
4,250
Food & Industrial Use (kt)
254
248
255
Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt)
570
455
393
Total Domestic Use [d] (kt)
1,047
867
838
Carry-out Stocks (kt)
2,487
3,266
2,000
Average Price [f] $/t
201
181 [*]
204 [*
Canada: Wheat Except Durum Supply and Disposition 2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
Seeded Area (kha)
8,169
7,753
8,964
Harvested Area (kha)
7,722
7,530
8,796
Yield (t/ha)
2,71
2,77
2,67
Production (kt)
20,898
20,860
23,456
Imports [b] (kt)
13
23
19
Total Supply (kt)
25,203
26,318
29,952
Exports [c] (kt)
11,593
11,498
15,500
Food & Industrial Use (kt)
2,845
2,822
3,200
Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt)
4,525
4,624
4,340
Total Domestic Use [d] (kt)
8,175
8,343
8,352
Carry-out Stocks (kt)
5,435
6,477
6,100
Average Price [f] $/t
190
181 [*]
211 [**]
Crop Year [a]
Canadian Durum • For 2006-07, production decreased by 35% from 200506 to 3.8 Mt, as a result of lower seeded area and yields. • Supply is down by 16%, as record high carry-in stocks partly offset the lower production, but remains well above the 10-year average of 6.5 Mt. • Over 80% of the crop grades No. 2 CWAD or better, with protein content near normal. • Exports are forecast to be near record high, similar to 2005-06, with increased exports to the US and other markets offsetting lower demand from North Africa and the EU. • Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by about 40% to 2.0 Mt, near the 10-year average. • The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for No.1 CWAD 11.5% durum is up by $2/t from October, at $204/t I/S VC/SL, $23/t above 2005-06. A discount of $7/t to No.1 CWRS 11.5% is forecast, vs. the 10-year average premium of $36/t.
2007/08 Canadian Wheat • For 2007-08, production is forecast to decline by 11%, due to lower area seeded and average yields. • Industrial use is expected to continue to rise as new ethanol plants come on-line in western Canada, with total domestic consumption reaching a record. • Exports are forecast to decline due to reduced supplies and increased domestic demand. • Carry-out stocks are projected to decline by 17%, to 5 Mt, slightly below average.
Corn: Situation & Outlook US corn acres will have to increase 8 – 10 million more acres in 2007 to maintain exports and ethanol production
Barley
Canada: Barley Supply and Disposition February 6, 2007 Crop Year [a] Seeded Area (kha) Harvested Area (kha) Yield (t/ha) Production (kt) Imports [b] (kt) Total Supply (kt) Exports [c] (kt) Food & Industrial Use (kt) Feed, Waste, Dockage [1] (kt) Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) Carry-out Stocks (kt) Average Price [f] $/t
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
2007-2008 [F]
4,440 3,889 3.21 12,481 46 15,962 2,975 167 9,192 9,698 3,289 110
3,861 3,362 2.98 10,005 40 13,333 2,300 260 8,858 9,533 1,500 140-160
4,660 4,170 3.07 12,800 35 14,335 2,400 300 8,830 9,535 2,400 125-145
2007/08 Barley • For 2007-08, production is forecast to increase by 21% due to higher area seeded and yields. • Total supply is also forecast to rise sharply. • Exports are expected to increase slightly, while feed use remains similar to 2006-07. • Carry-out stocks are expected to increase. • The average off-Board feed barley price is forecast to fall by 10%, as the pressure from higher domestic and global barley production more than offsets the support from higher corn prices.
Canada: Oats Supply and Disposition February 6, 2007 Crop Year [a] Seeded Area (kha) Harvested Area (kha) Yield (t/ha) Production (kt) Imports [b] (kt) Total Supply (kt) Exports [c] (kt) Food & Industrial Use (kt) Feed, Waste, Dockage [1] (kt) Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) Carry-out Stocks (kt) Average Price [f] $/t
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
2007-2008 [F]
1,853 1,326 2.59 3,432 20 4,427 1,877 79 1,439 1,678 872 144
1,923 1,431 2.52 3,602 15 4,489 2,100 75 1,543 1,789 600 170-190
2,160 1,590 2.62 4,160 10 4,770 1,900 70 1,625 1,870 1,000 150-170
Oats
Feb 07
Mar 07
Oct 07
Alberta Oats Milling Ltd. Namao
$2.25
n/a
$2.10
Can-Oat Portage La Prairie
$3.05
$3.10
$2.75
Can-Oat Saskatoon
$2.90
$2.95
$2.50
Can-Oat Milling Barrhead
$2.65
n/a
$2.35
2007/08 Oats • For 2007-08, production is forecast to increase by 15%, due to higher area and yields. • Total supply is also expected to increase, as higher production more than offsets lower carryin stocks. • Exports are forecast to decrease slightly. • Carry-out stocks are expected to rise significantly. • The nearby oat futures contract on the CBoT is forecast to decrease from 2006-07 to C$160/t.
Canola: Situation & Outlook
World Soybeans • Global oilseed production for 2006/07 is projected at a record 395.4 million tons, • Foreign production is projected at 298.6 million tons • Global soybean production is projected at 226.9 million tons. • Argentina’s soybean crop is a record 42.5 million tons. • Good weather during the early part of the growing season has improved yield prospects. • India’s rapeseed crop is projected at 6.2 million tons, harvested area reflecting Government of India data on planting progress. • Other oilseed production changes include increased rapeseed production for EU-25, reduced sunflowerseed production for Russia, and lower cottonseed production for Syria and Turkey. Higher cottonseed production in Brazil and China partly offsets these reductions.
U.S. Soybeans • U.S. oilseed production for 2006/07 is estimated at 96.9 million tons up 1.4 million tons from last year. • Lower soybean production is mostly offset by increases for sunflowerseed, canola, cottonseed, and peanuts. • Soybean production is estimated at 3,188 million bushels. • The soybean yield is estimated at 42.7 bushels per acre, below last year’s record of 43.0 bushels per acre. • Soybean exports are 1,120 million bushels reflecting weaker-thanexpected shipments in November and December. • Soybean stocks are projected at a record 575 million bushels. • The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2006/07 is narrowed to $5.75 to $6.45 per bushel. • Soybean oil prices are forecast at 26.5 to 28.5 cents per pound compared with 26 to 29 cents last month. • Soybean meal prices are projected at $170 to $185 per short ton compared with $165 to $190 last month.
World Canola/Rapeseed Supply & Usage
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
23,381
24,959
26,070
24,525
22,683
20,852
25,007
26,422
27,161
1.43
1.44
1.63
1.53
1.58
1.60
1.58
1.73
2,589
1,204
2,039
3,937
2,604
2,427
1,937
Production
33,331
35,935
42,378
37,442
35,802
33,437
Total supplies
35,920
37,139
44,417
41,379
38,406
360
275
390
375
2,580
2,692
2,918
Crush
31,776
32,133
Total usage
34,716
1,204
(000 mt)
Area Hvt (000 ha) Yield (kg/ha)
Opening stocks
Food Use Feed,Seed,Waste
Ending Stocks
change
5 yr avg
27,029
0%
24,425
1.77
1.71
-4%
1.65
1,898
4,199
4,608
10%
2,613
39,508
45,711
48,094
46,097
-4%
40,511
35,864
41,445
47,609
52,293
50,705
0%
0
435
383
619
630
641
640
0%
542
3,136
2,232
2,054
2,318
2,624
3,052
2,940
-4%
2,456
37,172
35,264
33,312
31,491
36,611
40,156
43,993
44,942
2%
37,112
35,100
40,480
38,775
35,979
33,927
39,548
43,410
47,685
48,522
2%
40,110
2,039
3,937
2,604
2,427
1,937
1,898
4,199
4,608
2,183
-53%
3,014
Canada: Canola Supply and Disposition February 6, 2007 Crop Year [a] Seeded Area (kha) Harvested Area (kha) Yield (t/ha) Production (kt) Imports [b] (kt) Total Supply (kt) Exports [c] (kt) Food & Industrial Use (kt) Feed, Waste, Dockage [1] (kt) Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) Carry-out Stocks (kt) Average Price [f] $/t
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
2007-2008 [F]
5,491 5,283 1.83 9,660 140 11,386 5,412 3,423 492 3,956 2,019 278
5,373 5,322 1.71 9,105 150 11,274 5,600 3,475 404 3,924 1,750 350-390
5,975 5,880 1.67 9,800 150 11,700 6,000 3,700 405 4,150 1,550 360-400
2007/08 Canola • For 2007-08, production is forecast to increase by 8% due to higher seeded area which more than offsets lower yields. • Total supply is expected to increase by about 4% as the rise in production more than offsets the decline in carry-in stocks. • Exports and domestic crush are forecast to increase to record levels. • Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline by 11%, while canola prices are forecast to rise slightly.
Flax
Canada: Flaxseed Supply and Disposition November 10, 2006 Crop Year [a]
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
Seeded Area (kha)
728
842
838
Harvested Area (kha)
528
803
829
Yield (t/ha)
0.98
1.35
1.16
Production (kt)
517
1,082
959
Imports [b] (kt)
39
38
20
Total Supply (kt)
648
1,144
1,315
Exports [c] (kt)
468
537
550
Food & Industrial Use (kt)
n/a
n/a
n/a
Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt)
n/a
n/a
n/a
Total Domestic Use [d] (kt)
157
271
265
24
336
500
n/a
276
245-285
Carry-out Stocks (kt) Average Price [f] $/t
2007/08 Flax • For 2007-08, production is forecast decline by 42% due to a sharp decrease in seeded area and slightly lower yields. • Exports are forecast to remain stable while domestic use decreases slightly. • Carry-out stocks are projected to decrease significantly, although prices are forecast to be similar to 2006-07.
Peas
Canadian Field Pea Supply-Demand Estimates (acres, metric tons) Year Acreage Yield (lbs) Production Carry In Imports Stocks Disappearance Europe South America N/C America Pacific Rim Arab/Africa Export Seed Feed & Waste Domestic Total Usage
2003 3,220,000 1,454 2,124,400 310,000 23,036 2,457,435 0 652,762 66,250 111,024 429,425 56,672 1,316,134 241,155 620,623 74,524 2,252,435
2004 3,430,000 2,146 3,338,100 205,000 52,375 3,595,475 0 569,228 110,094 97,782 977,627 96,454 1,851,184 237,288 837,420 74,584 3,000,476
2005 3,375,000 2,025 3,099,800 595,000 53,139 3,747,938 0 889,350 71,371 114,418 1,350,782 143,112 2,569,034 245,022 379,239 74,644 3,267,938
2006 3,485,000 1,775 2,806,300 480,000 55,796 3,342,096 0 442,000 90,800 107,700 1,269,300 138,700 2,048,500 230,468 538,424 74,703 2,892,095
2007 3,278,000 1,743 2,591,000 450,000 58,585 3,099,586 0 510,200 91,700 106,600 959,400 126,100 1,794,000 272,864 532,959 74,763 2,674,586
Ending Stock 205,000 595,000 480,000 450,000 425,000 Stocks/Use 9.1 % 19.8 % 14.7 % 15.6 % 15.9 % Forecasts by STAT Market Research based on data from Statistics Canada. Imports from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Created Dec 14, 2006
Canadian Peas • For 2006-07, production and supply decreased, as lower yields more than offset the 3% increase in seeded area. Production was similar to 2005-06 for the yellow type, but decreased for green and other types. • World supply decreased by 10% to 11.07 Mt, mainly because of lower production in Canada, France and Australia, and lower carry-in stocks. • Canadian exports are expected to decrease because of the lower Canadian supply and lower demand in EU feed markets. • Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease, with a stocksto-use ratio (s/u) of 15%. • The average price, over all types, grades and markets, is expected to rise from 2005-06 due to the lower supply and because a larger portion of the dry peas are expected to be sold into the higher priced food market.
Canadian Lentils • For 2006-07, production and supply decreased due to a 36% lower seeded area and lower yields. • Production decreased sharply for large, medium and small green lentils, but increased for red lentils. • Carry-in stocks were high for green lentils, but low for red lentils. World supply decreased by 10% to 4.15 Mt, mainly because of lower production in Canada, Australia and the US. • Canadian exports are expected to increase because of a higher Canadian supply of red lentils and sharply lower production in Australia, which produces red lentils. • Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease, with a s/u of 16%. The average price is expected to increase because of the lower world supply, with the price of green lentils increasing more than for red lentils. • Over all types and grades, the average price is forecast to increase.
(CDN cents per pound farmers dressed quality Large Green 15/64 15.20 to 16.00 (Laird) No 1 13.00 to 14.00 No 2 12.00 to 13.50 Xtra 3 8.00 to 9.25 No 3 7.75 to 8.50 Medium Green No 1 12.00 to 13.00 (Richlea) No 2 10.00 to 11.00 Xtra 3 8.75 to 8.75 No 3 6.75 to 6.75 Small Green No 1 12.50 to 14.00 (Eston) No 2 10.75 to 11.00 Xtra 3 9.50 to 9.75 No 3 7.50 to 7.75 French No 1 12.00 to 13.00 Green No 2 11.50 to 12.00 Xtra 3 8.10 to 8.50 No 3 5.80 to 6.10 Red No 1 12.00 to 15.75 No 2 12.00 to 15.75 Xtra 3 9.00 to 9.00 No 3 3.004.00 Feed Dlv'd Plant (MT) 96.00 to 101.04
delivered plant) 15.73 14.20 13.00 to 12.70 9.00 to 9.10 6.00 to 8.00 7.75 to 12.60 11.00 to 10.40 7.00 to 9.17 7.90 to 7.83 6.10 to 13.20 12.50 to 11.13 9.00 to 9.67 9.50 to 7.67 7.50 to 12.50 10.00 to 11.75 10.00 to 8.30 8.10 to 5.95 5.80 to 14.50 12.00 to 14.50 12.00 to 9.67 8.10 to 98.52
16.00 14.00 12.00 8.50 13.00 11.00 8.75 6.75 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 13.00 12.00 8.50 6.10 15.75 15.75 9.00
96.00 to 101.04
CROP PRODUCTION COSTS ($/ACRE)
Black D.Brown Brown Large Grn Large Grn Large Grn Lentil Lentil Lentil REVENUE PER ACRE Estimated Yield (bu/ac,lb/ac) (A) Est. On Farm Market Price/bus,lb (B) Estimated Gross Revenue/ac (AxB) (C)
955.0 0.17 162.35
1158.0 0.17 196.86
1227.60 0.17 208.69
EXPENSES PER ACRE Variable Expenses/acre Seed Fertilizer - Nitrogen - Phosphorus - Sulfur & Other Total Fertilzer Chemical - Herbicides - Insecticides/Fungicides - Others Machinery Operating - Fuel - Repair Custom Work & Hired Labour Crop Insurance Premium Utilities & Miscellaneous Interest on Variable Expenses Total Variable Expenses (D)
18.90 2.46 5.40 0.00 26.76 35.25 1.11 1.80 14.30 9.00 5.75 9.43 5.30 3.10 111.80
18.90 2.46 5.40 0.00 26.76 35.25 1.11 1.80 14.30 8.04 5.75 12.16 5.21 3.15 113.52
18.90 2.46 5.40 0.00 26.76 35.25 1.11 1.80 12.35 7.16 5.75 12.56 3.52 3.03 109.29
1.60 6.19 2.36 10.15
1.20 5.54 2.00 8.74
0.90 4.89 1.31 17.90
121.95
122.26
134.29
Other Expenses/acre Building Repair Property Taxes Insurance & Licences Total Other Expenses (E) Labour and Management (F)** Total Expenses (D+E+F) (G) Summerfallow Costs Total Rotational Expense (G+H)=(I) Net Income
40.40
74.60
28.50 162.79 45.90
Less: Living Costs Debt Payment Per Acre Residual for Growth
25.0 25.0 -9.6
25.0 25.0 24.60
25.0 25.0 -4.10
Mustard
U.S. Minor Oilseed Production Summary - Jan 2007 United States -- Minor Oilseed Production (metric tons, acres, pounds Production (metric tons) 2002 2003 Mustard 55,997 35,096 Safflower 135,163 124,628 Canola 695,555 685,952 Rapeseed 2,055 517 Flaxseed 319,270 267,120 Oil Sunflower 937,086 1,024,978 Conf. Sunflower 179,329 183,961
Summary per acre) 2004 2005 25,533 15,928 86,803 99,335 607,607 717,130 4,933 1,361 263,360 500,280 799,863 1,441,366 129,835 381,348
2006 12,801 86,821 717,130 499 279,900 811,016 161,320
Area (Acres) Mustard Safflower Canola Rapeseed Flaxseed Oil Sunflower Conf. Sunflower
2002 191,000 219,000 1,460,000 3,400 784,000 2,126,000 455,000
2003 110,000 222,000 1,082,000 1,300 595,000 1,998,000 346,000
2004 73,000 175,000 865,000 8,700 523,000 1,533,000 340,000
2005 49,000 169,000 1,159,000 2,400 983,000 2,104,000 605,000
2006 40,500 189,000 1,045,000 1,400 813,000 1,658,000 292,000
Yield (pounds) Mustard Safflower Canola Rapeseed Flaxseed Oil Sunflower Conf. Sunflower
2002 646 1,361 1,050 1,332 898 972 869
2003 703 1,238 1,398 876 990 1,131 1,172
2004 771 1,094 1,549 1,250 1,110 1,150 842
2005 717 1,296 1,364 1,250 1,122 1,510 1,390
2006 747 1,255 1,513 1,161 1,043 1,218 1,093
2006 Mustard Seed Production by Class and Province (metric tons) Manitoba Brown N/A Oriental N/A Yellow N/A Other N/A All Mustard 1,500
Saskatchewan 27,600 N/A 40,200 22,700 90,500
Alberta 4,500 4,600 16,500 N/A 25,600
B.C. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Canada 32,100 4,600 56,700 22,700 117,600
Brown Oriental Yellow Other All Mustard
Canada -- Production Summary by Class (metric tons) 2003 2004 2005 2006 N/A N/A 32,100 N/A N/A 4,600 N/A N/A 56,700 N/A N/A 24,200 226,100 305,500 201,400 117,600
Change N/A N/A N/A N/A -42.4%
Brown Oriental Yellow Other All Mustard
Canada -- Seeded Area Summary by Class (acres) 2003 2004 2005 2006 N/A N/A 10,000 94,000 N/A N/A 140,000 10,000 N/A N/A 220,000 180,000 N/A N/A 162,000 71,000 840,000 783,000 532,000 350,000
Change 840.0% -92.9% -18.2% N/A -34.2%
Canadian Mustard Seed Supply-Demand Estimates (acres, metric tons) Year Acreage Yield Production Carryin Stocks Disappearance Europe Americas Pacific Rim Arab/Africa Total Export
2003 840,000 593 226,100 60,000 286,100
2004 783,000 860 305,500 92,000 397,500
2005 512,000 876 203,400 194,000 397,400
2006 360,000 720 117,600 190,000 307,600
2007 404,000 709 130,000 95,000 225,000
44,666 55,798 18,857 1,894 121,215
41,879 56,369 17,993 2,786 119,027
44,317 57,911 28,495 2,445 133,167
43,600 58,400 31,400 2,300 135,700
43,300 59,300 31,800 2,800 137,200
Seed/Waste/Other Domestic Usage Carryover Usage/Stocks
56,624 16,260 194,100 92,000 47.4 %
68,053 16,420 203,500 194,000 95.3 %
57,653 16,580 207,400 190,000 91.6 %
60,150 16,750 212,600 95,000 44.7 %
25,879 16,920 179,999 45,000 25.0 %
MUSTARDSEED (CDN cents per pound Yellow No 1 No 2 No 3 No 4 Brown No 1 No 2 No 3 No 4 Oriental No 1 No 2 No 3
SPOT MARKET AVERAGE farmers dressed quality delivered 22.00 to 22.50 22.17 19.50 to 21.00 20.25 15.50 to 20.00 17.75 13.50 to 19.00 16.25 16.00 to 17.50 16.50 15.00 to 16.50 15.75 13.50 to 14.00 13.75 11.50 to 13.00 12.25 14.00 to 14.50 14.17 13.00 to 13.50 13.25 9.00 to 12.00 10.50
M/A/M plant) 22.00 to 19.50 to 15.50 to 13.50 to 16.00 to 15.00 to 13.50 to 11.50 to 14.00 to 13.00 to 9.00 to
22.50 21.00 20.00 19.00 18.50 16.50 14.00 13.00 16.50 13.50 12.00
Brown Mustard REVENUE PER ACRE Estimated Yield (bu/ac,lb/ac) (A) Est. On Farm Market Price/bus,lb (B) Estimated Gross Revenue/ac (AxB) (C) EXPENSES PER ACRE Variable Expenses/acre Seed Fertilizer - Nitrogen - Phosphorus - Sulfur & Other Total Fertilzer Chemical - Herbicides - Insecticides/Fungicides - Others Machinery Operating - Fuel - Repair Custom Work & Hired Labour Crop Insurance Premium Utilities & Miscellaneous Interest on Variable Expenses Total Variable Expenses (D) Other Expenses/acre Building Repair Property Taxes Insurance & Licences Total Other Expenses (E) Labour and Management (F)** Total Expenses (D+E+F) (G) Summerfallow Costs Total Rotational Expense (G+H)=(I) Net Income Less: Living Costs Debt Payment Per Acre Residual for Growth
18.50 8.50 157.25
17.70 8.20 5.40 2.00 33.30 17.09 0.42 0.00 11.70 4.32 5.00 8.76 3.52 2.40 86.51
0.90 4.89 1.31 14.40 108.01 28.50 136.51 20.74
25.0 25.0 -29.26
Canary Seed
BIRDSEED SPOT MARKET AVERAGE M/A/M (CDN cents per pound farmers dressed quality delivered plant) Canaryseed 16.00 to 17.50 16.60 16.00 to 17.50
Canadian Canaryseed Supply-Demand Estimates (acres, metric tons) Year Acreage Yield (lbs) Production Carryin Stocks Disappearance North Europe Mediterranean Americas Pacific Rim Arab/Africa Total Export
2003 620,000 805 226,400 34,000 260,400
2004 880,000 753 300,500 67,000 367,500
2005 475,000 1,064 229,200 168,000 397,200
2006 297,000 878 118,300 190,000 308,300
2007 350,000 819 130,000 115,000 245,000
27,951 23,695 102,418 4,880 10,635 169,579
31,636 19,608 103,966 4,185 7,933 167,328
36,086 21,095 117,854 4,724 9,654 189,413
31,900 21,500 108,100 4,600 9,400 175,500
38,200 20,700 110,000 4,500 9,000 182,400
All Domestic Usage Carryover Usage/Stocks
23,821 193,400 67,000 34.6 %
32,172 199,500 168,000 84.2 %
17,787 207,200 190,000 91.7 %
17,800 193,300 115,000 59.5 %
22,600 205,000 40,000 19.5 %
CROP PRODUCTION COSTS ($/ACRE)
Black Canary Seed REVENUE PER ACRE Estimated Yield (bu/ac,lb/ac) (A) Est. On Farm Market Price/bus,lb (B) Estimated Gross Revenue/ac (AxB) (C)
D.Brown Canary Seed
Brown Canary Seed
1029.0 0.17 174.93
958.6 0.17 162.96
1009.20 0.17 171.56
8.05 14.35 8.10 0.00 30.50 14.21 1.92 0.00 13.00 5.70 6.75 6.15 5.30 2.38 85.91
8.05 14.35 8.10 0.00 30.50 11.33 1.92 0.00 13.00 4.98 6.75 5.81 5.21 2.27 81.76
8.05 8.20 8.10 0.00 24.35 11.33 1.92 0.00 11.05 4.32 5.50 6.11 3.52 1.94 70.04
1.60 6.19 2.36 10.15
1.20 5.54 2.00 8.74
0.90 4.89 1.31 14.40
96.06
90.50
91.54 28.50 120.04
Net Income
78.87
72.46
51.52
Less: Living Costs Debt Payment Per Acre Residual for Growth
25.0 25.0 28.9
25.0 25.0 22.46
25.0 25.0 1.52
EXPENSES PER ACRE Variable Expenses/acre Seed Fertilizer - Nitrogen - Phosphorus - Sulfur & Other Total Fertilzer Chemical - Herbicides - Insecticides/Fungicides - Others Machinery Operating - Fuel - Repair Custom Work & Hired Labour Crop Insurance Premium Utilities & Miscellaneous Interest on Variable Expenses Total Variable Expenses (D) Other Expenses/acre Building Repair Property Taxes Insurance & Licences Total Other Expenses (E) Labour and Management (F)** Total Expenses (D+E+F) (G) Summerfallow Costs Total Rotational Expense (G+H)=(I)
Chickpeas
Canadian Chick Pea Supply-Demand Estimates (acres, metric tons) Year Acreage Yield ( lbs) Production Imports Carry In Stocks Disappearance Exports Seed Feed & Waste Other Domestic Total Usage Ending Stock Stock/Use
2003 155,000 961 67,600 1,000 85,000 153,600
2004 115,000 982 51,200 1,000 47,000 99,200
2005 195,000 1,175 103,900 1,000 12,000 116,900
2006 355,000 1,132 182,300 1,000 6,000 189,300
2007 402,000 1,015 185,000 1,000 29,000 215,000
73,654 7,820 21,736 3,390 106,600
46,633 13,270 23,857 3,440 87,200
63,796 24,150 19,464 3,490 110,900
98,200 27,350 31,210 3,540 160,300
97,400 20,890 35,120 3,590 157,000
47,000 44.1 %
12,000 13.8 %
6,000 5.4 %
29,000 18.1 %
58,000 36.9 %
CHICKPEAS SPOT MARKET AVERAGE (CDN cents per pound farmers dressed quality delivered Desi Chickpeas 20.00 to 21.75 20.88 No 1 Grade Kabuli Chickpeas 10mm 37.00 to 38.00 37.50 9mm 33.00 to 35.00 33.75 8mm 27.00 to 30.00 28.00 7mm 15.00 to 19.00 16.00 No 2 Grade Kabuli Chickpeas 10mm 30.40 to 32.00 31.47 9mm 26.60 to 28.00 27.53 8mm 22.80 to 24.00 23.60 7mm 12.00 to 23.40 15.80 No 1 B-90 Chickpea 24.00 to 28.00 26.00 No 2 B-90 Chickpea 22.80 to 24.00 23.40 Natural Splits 1.67 to 1.67 1.67
M/A/M plant) 20.00 to 21.75 33.50 30.50 27.00 15.00
to to to to
38.00 35.00 30.00 19.00
30.40 26.60 22.80 12.00 24.00 22.80 1.50
to to to to to to to
32.00 28.00 24.00 23.40 28.00 24.00 1.67
International Weather • FSU-WESTERN: Unseasonably mild weather returned to major winter wheat producing areas in Ukraine and Russia, melting protective snow cover. • EUROPE: Rain and snow benefited dormant to semi-dormant winter grains and oilseeds across much of the region, while above-normal temperatures maintained faster-than-normal crop development in southeastern Europe. • AUSTRALIA: Mostly dry, unseasonably warm weather hampered development of immature cotton and sorghum, but aided dry down of maturing summer crops. • EASTERN ASIA: Mild weather and light rainfall favored overwintering wheat and rapeseed. • ARGENTINA: Conditions remained mostly favorable for summer grains, oilseeds, and cotton in major production areas of central and northern Argentina, although some locations experienced unseasonable dryness. • BRAZIL: Moderate to heavy showers maintained adequate to locally excessive moisture for immature summer crops, including soybeans. • NORTHWEST AFRICA: Additional showers boosted prospects for vegetative winter grains.
Wheat: Situation & Outlook
Canada: Durum Supply and Disposition Crop Year [a]
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
Seeded Area (kha)
2,230
2,341
1,760
Harvested Area (kha)
2,141
2,297
1,738
Yield (t/ha)
2,32
2,58
2,20
Production (kt)
4,962
5,915
3,821
Imports [b] (kt)
1
1
1
Total Supply (kt)
6,752
8,402
7,088
Exports (kt)
3,218
4,269
4,250
Food & Industrial Use (kt)
254
248
255
Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt)
570
455
393
Total Domestic Use [d] (kt)
1,047
867
838
Carry-out Stocks (kt)
2,487
3,266
2,000
Average Price [f] $/t
201
181 [*]
204 [*
Canada: Wheat Except Durum Supply and Disposition 2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
Seeded Area (kha)
8,169
7,753
8,964
Harvested Area (kha)
7,722
7,530
8,796
Yield (t/ha)
2,71
2,77
2,67
Production (kt)
20,898
20,860
23,456
Imports [b] (kt)
13
23
19
Total Supply (kt)
25,203
26,318
29,952
Exports [c] (kt)
11,593
11,498
15,500
Food & Industrial Use (kt)
2,845
2,822
3,200
Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt)
4,525
4,624
4,340
Total Domestic Use [d] (kt)
8,175
8,343
8,352
Carry-out Stocks (kt)
5,435
6,477
6,100
Average Price [f] $/t
190
181 [*]
211 [**]
Crop Year [a]
Canadian Durum • For 2006-07, production decreased by 35% from 200506 to 3.8 Mt, as a result of lower seeded area and yields. • Supply is down by 16%, as record high carry-in stocks partly offset the lower production, but remains well above the 10-year average of 6.5 Mt. • Over 80% of the crop grades No. 2 CWAD or better, with protein content near normal. • Exports are forecast to be near record high, similar to 2005-06, with increased exports to the US and other markets offsetting lower demand from North Africa and the EU. • Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by about 40% to 2.0 Mt, near the 10-year average. • The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for No.1 CWAD 11.5% durum is up by $2/t from October, at $204/t I/S VC/SL, $23/t above 2005-06. A discount of $7/t to No.1 CWRS 11.5% is forecast, vs. the 10-year average premium of $36/t.
2007/08 Canadian Wheat • For 2007-08, production is forecast to decline by 11%, due to lower area seeded and average yields. • Industrial use is expected to continue to rise as new ethanol plants come on-line in western Canada, with total domestic consumption reaching a record. • Exports are forecast to decline due to reduced supplies and increased domestic demand. • Carry-out stocks are projected to decline by 17%, to 5 Mt, slightly below average.
Corn: Situation & Outlook US corn acres will have to increase 8 – 10 million more acres in 2007 to maintain exports and ethanol production
Barley
Canada: Barley Supply and Disposition February 6, 2007 Crop Year [a] Seeded Area (kha) Harvested Area (kha) Yield (t/ha) Production (kt) Imports [b] (kt) Total Supply (kt) Exports [c] (kt) Food & Industrial Use (kt) Feed, Waste, Dockage [1] (kt) Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) Carry-out Stocks (kt) Average Price [f] $/t
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
2007-2008 [F]
4,440 3,889 3.21 12,481 46 15,962 2,975 167 9,192 9,698 3,289 110
3,861 3,362 2.98 10,005 40 13,333 2,300 260 8,858 9,533 1,500 140-160
4,660 4,170 3.07 12,800 35 14,335 2,400 300 8,830 9,535 2,400 125-145
2007/08 Barley • For 2007-08, production is forecast to increase by 21% due to higher area seeded and yields. • Total supply is also forecast to rise sharply. • Exports are expected to increase slightly, while feed use remains similar to 2006-07. • Carry-out stocks are expected to increase. • The average off-Board feed barley price is forecast to fall by 10%, as the pressure from higher domestic and global barley production more than offsets the support from higher corn prices.
Canada: Oats Supply and Disposition February 6, 2007 Crop Year [a] Seeded Area (kha) Harvested Area (kha) Yield (t/ha) Production (kt) Imports [b] (kt) Total Supply (kt) Exports [c] (kt) Food & Industrial Use (kt) Feed, Waste, Dockage [1] (kt) Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) Carry-out Stocks (kt) Average Price [f] $/t
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
2007-2008 [F]
1,853 1,326 2.59 3,432 20 4,427 1,877 79 1,439 1,678 872 144
1,923 1,431 2.52 3,602 15 4,489 2,100 75 1,543 1,789 600 170-190
2,160 1,590 2.62 4,160 10 4,770 1,900 70 1,625 1,870 1,000 150-170
Oats
Feb 07
Mar 07
Oct 07
Alberta Oats Milling Ltd. Namao
$2.25
n/a
$2.10
Can-Oat Portage La Prairie
$3.05
$3.10
$2.75
Can-Oat Saskatoon
$2.90
$2.95
$2.50
Can-Oat Milling Barrhead
$2.65
n/a
$2.35
2007/08 Oats • For 2007-08, production is forecast to increase by 15%, due to higher area and yields. • Total supply is also expected to increase, as higher production more than offsets lower carryin stocks. • Exports are forecast to decrease slightly. • Carry-out stocks are expected to rise significantly. • The nearby oat futures contract on the CBoT is forecast to decrease from 2006-07 to C$160/t.
Canola: Situation & Outlook
World Soybeans • Global oilseed production for 2006/07 is projected at a record 395.4 million tons, • Foreign production is projected at 298.6 million tons • Global soybean production is projected at 226.9 million tons. • Argentina’s soybean crop is a record 42.5 million tons. • Good weather during the early part of the growing season has improved yield prospects. • India’s rapeseed crop is projected at 6.2 million tons, harvested area reflecting Government of India data on planting progress. • Other oilseed production changes include increased rapeseed production for EU-25, reduced sunflowerseed production for Russia, and lower cottonseed production for Syria and Turkey. Higher cottonseed production in Brazil and China partly offsets these reductions.
U.S. Soybeans • U.S. oilseed production for 2006/07 is estimated at 96.9 million tons up 1.4 million tons from last year. • Lower soybean production is mostly offset by increases for sunflowerseed, canola, cottonseed, and peanuts. • Soybean production is estimated at 3,188 million bushels. • The soybean yield is estimated at 42.7 bushels per acre, below last year’s record of 43.0 bushels per acre. • Soybean exports are 1,120 million bushels reflecting weaker-thanexpected shipments in November and December. • Soybean stocks are projected at a record 575 million bushels. • The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2006/07 is narrowed to $5.75 to $6.45 per bushel. • Soybean oil prices are forecast at 26.5 to 28.5 cents per pound compared with 26 to 29 cents last month. • Soybean meal prices are projected at $170 to $185 per short ton compared with $165 to $190 last month.
World Canola/Rapeseed Supply & Usage
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
23,381
24,959
26,070
24,525
22,683
20,852
25,007
26,422
27,161
1.43
1.44
1.63
1.53
1.58
1.60
1.58
1.73
2,589
1,204
2,039
3,937
2,604
2,427
1,937
Production
33,331
35,935
42,378
37,442
35,802
33,437
Total supplies
35,920
37,139
44,417
41,379
38,406
360
275
390
375
2,580
2,692
2,918
Crush
31,776
32,133
Total usage
34,716
1,204
(000 mt)
Area Hvt (000 ha) Yield (kg/ha)
Opening stocks
Food Use Feed,Seed,Waste
Ending Stocks
change
5 yr avg
27,029
0%
24,425
1.77
1.71
-4%
1.65
1,898
4,199
4,608
10%
2,613
39,508
45,711
48,094
46,097
-4%
40,511
35,864
41,445
47,609
52,293
50,705
0%
0
435
383
619
630
641
640
0%
542
3,136
2,232
2,054
2,318
2,624
3,052
2,940
-4%
2,456
37,172
35,264
33,312
31,491
36,611
40,156
43,993
44,942
2%
37,112
35,100
40,480
38,775
35,979
33,927
39,548
43,410
47,685
48,522
2%
40,110
2,039
3,937
2,604
2,427
1,937
1,898
4,199
4,608
2,183
-53%
3,014
Canada: Canola Supply and Disposition February 6, 2007 Crop Year [a] Seeded Area (kha) Harvested Area (kha) Yield (t/ha) Production (kt) Imports [b] (kt) Total Supply (kt) Exports [c] (kt) Food & Industrial Use (kt) Feed, Waste, Dockage [1] (kt) Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) Carry-out Stocks (kt) Average Price [f] $/t
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
2007-2008 [F]
5,491 5,283 1.83 9,660 140 11,386 5,412 3,423 492 3,956 2,019 278
5,373 5,322 1.71 9,105 150 11,274 5,600 3,475 404 3,924 1,750 350-390
5,975 5,880 1.67 9,800 150 11,700 6,000 3,700 405 4,150 1,550 360-400
2007/08 Canola • For 2007-08, production is forecast to increase by 8% due to higher seeded area which more than offsets lower yields. • Total supply is expected to increase by about 4% as the rise in production more than offsets the decline in carry-in stocks. • Exports and domestic crush are forecast to increase to record levels. • Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline by 11%, while canola prices are forecast to rise slightly.
Flax
Canada: Flaxseed Supply and Disposition November 10, 2006 Crop Year [a]
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007 [F]
Seeded Area (kha)
728
842
838
Harvested Area (kha)
528
803
829
Yield (t/ha)
0.98
1.35
1.16
Production (kt)
517
1,082
959
Imports [b] (kt)
39
38
20
Total Supply (kt)
648
1,144
1,315
Exports [c] (kt)
468
537
550
Food & Industrial Use (kt)
n/a
n/a
n/a
Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt)
n/a
n/a
n/a
Total Domestic Use [d] (kt)
157
271
265
24
336
500
n/a
276
245-285
Carry-out Stocks (kt) Average Price [f] $/t
2007/08 Flax • For 2007-08, production is forecast decline by 42% due to a sharp decrease in seeded area and slightly lower yields. • Exports are forecast to remain stable while domestic use decreases slightly. • Carry-out stocks are projected to decrease significantly, although prices are forecast to be similar to 2006-07.
Peas
Canadian Field Pea Supply-Demand Estimates (acres, metric tons) Year Acreage Yield (lbs) Production Carry In Imports Stocks Disappearance Europe South America N/C America Pacific Rim Arab/Africa Export Seed Feed & Waste Domestic Total Usage
2003 3,220,000 1,454 2,124,400 310,000 23,036 2,457,435 0 652,762 66,250 111,024 429,425 56,672 1,316,134 241,155 620,623 74,524 2,252,435
2004 3,430,000 2,146 3,338,100 205,000 52,375 3,595,475 0 569,228 110,094 97,782 977,627 96,454 1,851,184 237,288 837,420 74,584 3,000,476
2005 3,375,000 2,025 3,099,800 595,000 53,139 3,747,938 0 889,350 71,371 114,418 1,350,782 143,112 2,569,034 245,022 379,239 74,644 3,267,938
2006 3,485,000 1,775 2,806,300 480,000 55,796 3,342,096 0 442,000 90,800 107,700 1,269,300 138,700 2,048,500 230,468 538,424 74,703 2,892,095
2007 3,278,000 1,743 2,591,000 450,000 58,585 3,099,586 0 510,200 91,700 106,600 959,400 126,100 1,794,000 272,864 532,959 74,763 2,674,586
Ending Stock 205,000 595,000 480,000 450,000 425,000 Stocks/Use 9.1 % 19.8 % 14.7 % 15.6 % 15.9 % Forecasts by STAT Market Research based on data from Statistics Canada. Imports from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Created Dec 14, 2006
Canadian Peas • For 2006-07, production and supply decreased, as lower yields more than offset the 3% increase in seeded area. Production was similar to 2005-06 for the yellow type, but decreased for green and other types. • World supply decreased by 10% to 11.07 Mt, mainly because of lower production in Canada, France and Australia, and lower carry-in stocks. • Canadian exports are expected to decrease because of the lower Canadian supply and lower demand in EU feed markets. • Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease, with a stocksto-use ratio (s/u) of 15%. • The average price, over all types, grades and markets, is expected to rise from 2005-06 due to the lower supply and because a larger portion of the dry peas are expected to be sold into the higher priced food market.
Canadian Lentils • For 2006-07, production and supply decreased due to a 36% lower seeded area and lower yields. • Production decreased sharply for large, medium and small green lentils, but increased for red lentils. • Carry-in stocks were high for green lentils, but low for red lentils. World supply decreased by 10% to 4.15 Mt, mainly because of lower production in Canada, Australia and the US. • Canadian exports are expected to increase because of a higher Canadian supply of red lentils and sharply lower production in Australia, which produces red lentils. • Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease, with a s/u of 16%. The average price is expected to increase because of the lower world supply, with the price of green lentils increasing more than for red lentils. • Over all types and grades, the average price is forecast to increase.
(CDN cents per pound farmers dressed quality Large Green 15/64 15.20 to 16.00 (Laird) No 1 13.00 to 14.00 No 2 12.00 to 13.50 Xtra 3 8.00 to 9.25 No 3 7.75 to 8.50 Medium Green No 1 12.00 to 13.00 (Richlea) No 2 10.00 to 11.00 Xtra 3 8.75 to 8.75 No 3 6.75 to 6.75 Small Green No 1 12.50 to 14.00 (Eston) No 2 10.75 to 11.00 Xtra 3 9.50 to 9.75 No 3 7.50 to 7.75 French No 1 12.00 to 13.00 Green No 2 11.50 to 12.00 Xtra 3 8.10 to 8.50 No 3 5.80 to 6.10 Red No 1 12.00 to 15.75 No 2 12.00 to 15.75 Xtra 3 9.00 to 9.00 No 3 3.004.00 Feed Dlv'd Plant (MT) 96.00 to 101.04
delivered plant) 15.73 14.20 13.00 to 12.70 9.00 to 9.10 6.00 to 8.00 7.75 to 12.60 11.00 to 10.40 7.00 to 9.17 7.90 to 7.83 6.10 to 13.20 12.50 to 11.13 9.00 to 9.67 9.50 to 7.67 7.50 to 12.50 10.00 to 11.75 10.00 to 8.30 8.10 to 5.95 5.80 to 14.50 12.00 to 14.50 12.00 to 9.67 8.10 to 98.52
16.00 14.00 12.00 8.50 13.00 11.00 8.75 6.75 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 13.00 12.00 8.50 6.10 15.75 15.75 9.00
96.00 to 101.04
CROP PRODUCTION COSTS ($/ACRE)
Black D.Brown Brown Large Grn Large Grn Large Grn Lentil Lentil Lentil REVENUE PER ACRE Estimated Yield (bu/ac,lb/ac) (A) Est. On Farm Market Price/bus,lb (B) Estimated Gross Revenue/ac (AxB) (C)
955.0 0.17 162.35
1158.0 0.17 196.86
1227.60 0.17 208.69
EXPENSES PER ACRE Variable Expenses/acre Seed Fertilizer - Nitrogen - Phosphorus - Sulfur & Other Total Fertilzer Chemical - Herbicides - Insecticides/Fungicides - Others Machinery Operating - Fuel - Repair Custom Work & Hired Labour Crop Insurance Premium Utilities & Miscellaneous Interest on Variable Expenses Total Variable Expenses (D)
18.90 2.46 5.40 0.00 26.76 35.25 1.11 1.80 14.30 9.00 5.75 9.43 5.30 3.10 111.80
18.90 2.46 5.40 0.00 26.76 35.25 1.11 1.80 14.30 8.04 5.75 12.16 5.21 3.15 113.52
18.90 2.46 5.40 0.00 26.76 35.25 1.11 1.80 12.35 7.16 5.75 12.56 3.52 3.03 109.29
1.60 6.19 2.36 10.15
1.20 5.54 2.00 8.74
0.90 4.89 1.31 17.90
121.95
122.26
134.29
Other Expenses/acre Building Repair Property Taxes Insurance & Licences Total Other Expenses (E) Labour and Management (F)** Total Expenses (D+E+F) (G) Summerfallow Costs Total Rotational Expense (G+H)=(I) Net Income
40.40
74.60
28.50 162.79 45.90
Less: Living Costs Debt Payment Per Acre Residual for Growth
25.0 25.0 -9.6
25.0 25.0 24.60
25.0 25.0 -4.10
Mustard
U.S. Minor Oilseed Production Summary - Jan 2007 United States -- Minor Oilseed Production (metric tons, acres, pounds Production (metric tons) 2002 2003 Mustard 55,997 35,096 Safflower 135,163 124,628 Canola 695,555 685,952 Rapeseed 2,055 517 Flaxseed 319,270 267,120 Oil Sunflower 937,086 1,024,978 Conf. Sunflower 179,329 183,961
Summary per acre) 2004 2005 25,533 15,928 86,803 99,335 607,607 717,130 4,933 1,361 263,360 500,280 799,863 1,441,366 129,835 381,348
2006 12,801 86,821 717,130 499 279,900 811,016 161,320
Area (Acres) Mustard Safflower Canola Rapeseed Flaxseed Oil Sunflower Conf. Sunflower
2002 191,000 219,000 1,460,000 3,400 784,000 2,126,000 455,000
2003 110,000 222,000 1,082,000 1,300 595,000 1,998,000 346,000
2004 73,000 175,000 865,000 8,700 523,000 1,533,000 340,000
2005 49,000 169,000 1,159,000 2,400 983,000 2,104,000 605,000
2006 40,500 189,000 1,045,000 1,400 813,000 1,658,000 292,000
Yield (pounds) Mustard Safflower Canola Rapeseed Flaxseed Oil Sunflower Conf. Sunflower
2002 646 1,361 1,050 1,332 898 972 869
2003 703 1,238 1,398 876 990 1,131 1,172
2004 771 1,094 1,549 1,250 1,110 1,150 842
2005 717 1,296 1,364 1,250 1,122 1,510 1,390
2006 747 1,255 1,513 1,161 1,043 1,218 1,093
2006 Mustard Seed Production by Class and Province (metric tons) Manitoba Brown N/A Oriental N/A Yellow N/A Other N/A All Mustard 1,500
Saskatchewan 27,600 N/A 40,200 22,700 90,500
Alberta 4,500 4,600 16,500 N/A 25,600
B.C. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Canada 32,100 4,600 56,700 22,700 117,600
Brown Oriental Yellow Other All Mustard
Canada -- Production Summary by Class (metric tons) 2003 2004 2005 2006 N/A N/A 32,100 N/A N/A 4,600 N/A N/A 56,700 N/A N/A 24,200 226,100 305,500 201,400 117,600
Change N/A N/A N/A N/A -42.4%
Brown Oriental Yellow Other All Mustard
Canada -- Seeded Area Summary by Class (acres) 2003 2004 2005 2006 N/A N/A 10,000 94,000 N/A N/A 140,000 10,000 N/A N/A 220,000 180,000 N/A N/A 162,000 71,000 840,000 783,000 532,000 350,000
Change 840.0% -92.9% -18.2% N/A -34.2%
Canadian Mustard Seed Supply-Demand Estimates (acres, metric tons) Year Acreage Yield Production Carryin Stocks Disappearance Europe Americas Pacific Rim Arab/Africa Total Export
2003 840,000 593 226,100 60,000 286,100
2004 783,000 860 305,500 92,000 397,500
2005 512,000 876 203,400 194,000 397,400
2006 360,000 720 117,600 190,000 307,600
2007 404,000 709 130,000 95,000 225,000
44,666 55,798 18,857 1,894 121,215
41,879 56,369 17,993 2,786 119,027
44,317 57,911 28,495 2,445 133,167
43,600 58,400 31,400 2,300 135,700
43,300 59,300 31,800 2,800 137,200
Seed/Waste/Other Domestic Usage Carryover Usage/Stocks
56,624 16,260 194,100 92,000 47.4 %
68,053 16,420 203,500 194,000 95.3 %
57,653 16,580 207,400 190,000 91.6 %
60,150 16,750 212,600 95,000 44.7 %
25,879 16,920 179,999 45,000 25.0 %
MUSTARDSEED (CDN cents per pound Yellow No 1 No 2 No 3 No 4 Brown No 1 No 2 No 3 No 4 Oriental No 1 No 2 No 3
SPOT MARKET AVERAGE farmers dressed quality delivered 22.00 to 22.50 22.17 19.50 to 21.00 20.25 15.50 to 20.00 17.75 13.50 to 19.00 16.25 16.00 to 17.50 16.50 15.00 to 16.50 15.75 13.50 to 14.00 13.75 11.50 to 13.00 12.25 14.00 to 14.50 14.17 13.00 to 13.50 13.25 9.00 to 12.00 10.50
M/A/M plant) 22.00 to 19.50 to 15.50 to 13.50 to 16.00 to 15.00 to 13.50 to 11.50 to 14.00 to 13.00 to 9.00 to
22.50 21.00 20.00 19.00 18.50 16.50 14.00 13.00 16.50 13.50 12.00
Brown Mustard REVENUE PER ACRE Estimated Yield (bu/ac,lb/ac) (A) Est. On Farm Market Price/bus,lb (B) Estimated Gross Revenue/ac (AxB) (C) EXPENSES PER ACRE Variable Expenses/acre Seed Fertilizer - Nitrogen - Phosphorus - Sulfur & Other Total Fertilzer Chemical - Herbicides - Insecticides/Fungicides - Others Machinery Operating - Fuel - Repair Custom Work & Hired Labour Crop Insurance Premium Utilities & Miscellaneous Interest on Variable Expenses Total Variable Expenses (D) Other Expenses/acre Building Repair Property Taxes Insurance & Licences Total Other Expenses (E) Labour and Management (F)** Total Expenses (D+E+F) (G) Summerfallow Costs Total Rotational Expense (G+H)=(I) Net Income Less: Living Costs Debt Payment Per Acre Residual for Growth
18.50 8.50 157.25
17.70 8.20 5.40 2.00 33.30 17.09 0.42 0.00 11.70 4.32 5.00 8.76 3.52 2.40 86.51
0.90 4.89 1.31 14.40 108.01 28.50 136.51 20.74
25.0 25.0 -29.26
Canary Seed
BIRDSEED SPOT MARKET AVERAGE M/A/M (CDN cents per pound farmers dressed quality delivered plant) Canaryseed 16.00 to 17.50 16.60 16.00 to 17.50
Canadian Canaryseed Supply-Demand Estimates (acres, metric tons) Year Acreage Yield (lbs) Production Carryin Stocks Disappearance North Europe Mediterranean Americas Pacific Rim Arab/Africa Total Export
2003 620,000 805 226,400 34,000 260,400
2004 880,000 753 300,500 67,000 367,500
2005 475,000 1,064 229,200 168,000 397,200
2006 297,000 878 118,300 190,000 308,300
2007 350,000 819 130,000 115,000 245,000
27,951 23,695 102,418 4,880 10,635 169,579
31,636 19,608 103,966 4,185 7,933 167,328
36,086 21,095 117,854 4,724 9,654 189,413
31,900 21,500 108,100 4,600 9,400 175,500
38,200 20,700 110,000 4,500 9,000 182,400
All Domestic Usage Carryover Usage/Stocks
23,821 193,400 67,000 34.6 %
32,172 199,500 168,000 84.2 %
17,787 207,200 190,000 91.7 %
17,800 193,300 115,000 59.5 %
22,600 205,000 40,000 19.5 %
CROP PRODUCTION COSTS ($/ACRE)
Black Canary Seed REVENUE PER ACRE Estimated Yield (bu/ac,lb/ac) (A) Est. On Farm Market Price/bus,lb (B) Estimated Gross Revenue/ac (AxB) (C)
D.Brown Canary Seed
Brown Canary Seed
1029.0 0.17 174.93
958.6 0.17 162.96
1009.20 0.17 171.56
8.05 14.35 8.10 0.00 30.50 14.21 1.92 0.00 13.00 5.70 6.75 6.15 5.30 2.38 85.91
8.05 14.35 8.10 0.00 30.50 11.33 1.92 0.00 13.00 4.98 6.75 5.81 5.21 2.27 81.76
8.05 8.20 8.10 0.00 24.35 11.33 1.92 0.00 11.05 4.32 5.50 6.11 3.52 1.94 70.04
1.60 6.19 2.36 10.15
1.20 5.54 2.00 8.74
0.90 4.89 1.31 14.40
96.06
90.50
91.54 28.50 120.04
Net Income
78.87
72.46
51.52
Less: Living Costs Debt Payment Per Acre Residual for Growth
25.0 25.0 28.9
25.0 25.0 22.46
25.0 25.0 1.52
EXPENSES PER ACRE Variable Expenses/acre Seed Fertilizer - Nitrogen - Phosphorus - Sulfur & Other Total Fertilzer Chemical - Herbicides - Insecticides/Fungicides - Others Machinery Operating - Fuel - Repair Custom Work & Hired Labour Crop Insurance Premium Utilities & Miscellaneous Interest on Variable Expenses Total Variable Expenses (D) Other Expenses/acre Building Repair Property Taxes Insurance & Licences Total Other Expenses (E) Labour and Management (F)** Total Expenses (D+E+F) (G) Summerfallow Costs Total Rotational Expense (G+H)=(I)
Chickpeas
Canadian Chick Pea Supply-Demand Estimates (acres, metric tons) Year Acreage Yield ( lbs) Production Imports Carry In Stocks Disappearance Exports Seed Feed & Waste Other Domestic Total Usage Ending Stock Stock/Use
2003 155,000 961 67,600 1,000 85,000 153,600
2004 115,000 982 51,200 1,000 47,000 99,200
2005 195,000 1,175 103,900 1,000 12,000 116,900
2006 355,000 1,132 182,300 1,000 6,000 189,300
2007 402,000 1,015 185,000 1,000 29,000 215,000
73,654 7,820 21,736 3,390 106,600
46,633 13,270 23,857 3,440 87,200
63,796 24,150 19,464 3,490 110,900
98,200 27,350 31,210 3,540 160,300
97,400 20,890 35,120 3,590 157,000
47,000 44.1 %
12,000 13.8 %
6,000 5.4 %
29,000 18.1 %
58,000 36.9 %
CHICKPEAS SPOT MARKET AVERAGE (CDN cents per pound farmers dressed quality delivered Desi Chickpeas 20.00 to 21.75 20.88 No 1 Grade Kabuli Chickpeas 10mm 37.00 to 38.00 37.50 9mm 33.00 to 35.00 33.75 8mm 27.00 to 30.00 28.00 7mm 15.00 to 19.00 16.00 No 2 Grade Kabuli Chickpeas 10mm 30.40 to 32.00 31.47 9mm 26.60 to 28.00 27.53 8mm 22.80 to 24.00 23.60 7mm 12.00 to 23.40 15.80 No 1 B-90 Chickpea 24.00 to 28.00 26.00 No 2 B-90 Chickpea 22.80 to 24.00 23.40 Natural Splits 1.67 to 1.67 1.67
M/A/M plant) 20.00 to 21.75 33.50 30.50 27.00 15.00
to to to to
38.00 35.00 30.00 19.00
30.40 26.60 22.80 12.00 24.00 22.80 1.50
to to to to to to to
32.00 28.00 24.00 23.40 28.00 24.00 1.67
