Growth, Productivity and Employment in Agriculture, Manufacturing ...
Growth, Productivity and Employment in Agriculture, Manufacturing and Services
Durmuş Ali Battal E. Sena Kişi Mehmet Ali Öztürk Yusuf Ersoy
Content • Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 • Agriculture • Manufacturing • Services
Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 •Sectoral Shares Average share of agriculture in EU‐15 is 1,9% Share of agriculture in World GDP is 3% Share of agriculture in Emerging and Developing Economies is 8,2%
Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 •Sectoral Growths Growth in construction sector is 17,1%. The share in GDP is 5,6%. Growth in trade sector is 13,3%.
Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 •Sectoral Growths Looking at the sectoral distribution of growth: i.
increase in private sector’s investment in machinery and equipment
ii. increase in domestic consumption iii. contribution of manufacturing industry are the indicators of recovery.
Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 •Sectoral Employment Compared to the past year share in employment increased in Agricultural sector 0.6 point Industrial sector 0.7 point Construction sector 0.2 point Services sector decreased by 1.5 point
Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 •Sectoral Employment Unemployment: Unemployment rate decreased by 2.1% percentage and it is now 11.9%. Urban area decreased by 2.4% and is 14.2% Rural area decreased by 1.6% and is 7.3% Unemployment rate ; Within men decreased by 2.8 % and is 13.2% Within women decreased by 1.7% and is 20.2% Within young population is 21.7% however in 2009 it was 25.3 %.
Agriculture
Agriculture Growth in agricultural sector stayed behind 2008‐2009 global crisis’ growth 4%. In 2010 Turkish economy grew by 8.9% nevertheless agricultural sector grew by 1.6%. Turkish economy compensated last year’s depression, agriculture sector being the attractive power of Turkish economy faced a recession and regression.
Agriculture The difference between input and output prices led to an increase in input costs, especially in fruit, seed production. In some crops there are increases and this is a stimulus of 1.6% increment. For example while cotton was 80 kuruş it rised to 3 TL. Also 30% increase in profit of maize. On an aggregated level, the agrarian structure does not look very healthy with an average farm‐size of less than 6 ha. It indicates that the majority of farm households in Turkey is still based on low‐input semi‐subsistence agriculture.
Agriculture •Growth Increase in 1998 arises from augmentation in value added of farming and animal husbandry.
Weather effect
At constant prices
Agriculture •Productivity Value added in agriculture is highly sensitive through fluctuations in oil prices. Turkey is using more than two times energy resources to be able to produce the same product or services in Europe. According to Independent Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (MÜSİAD) agricultural sector report it is possible to increase 2.5 times in productivity and efficiency in many crops only by correct and enough irrigation.
Agriculture •Productivity
Productivity in regions is lower than West Europe by (per ha) ; 2 times in barley 1.5 times in sugar beet
Sugar Beet
Barley
Agriculture •Productivity
Productivity in regions is lower than West Europe by (per ha); 2.5 times in wheat 2 times in corn
Corn
Wheat: 226 kilos of wheat is cultivated per decare, in EU it is 540 kgs. According to Independent Industrialists and Businessmen's Association agricultural report world average por hectare in wheat is 2.829 kgs. In Turkey it is 2.124 kgs. In Ireland 9.924 kgs, in Belgium 8.981 kgs, in Namibia 8.889 kgs, in the Netherlands 8.862 kgs.
Wheat
Agriculture •Employment
Manufacturing
Manufacturing Reasons behind the decline; Speculative financial sector, Huge cash inflows High interest rate
Manufacturing •Growth
Manufacturing •Productivity Sub‐prime crisis
Manufacturing •Productivity
Sensitivity to financial crisis
Source: TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN THE TURKISH REGIONAL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES Metin KARADAĞ
Manufacturing •Employment
Services Services sector has the biggest share in the Turkish economy. Thus it is the main motivator of employment and growth. The share of services sector has the tendency to grow while the share of agricultural sector declines .
Services •Growth The contribution of services to economic growth is through trade, construction and transport. Highly sensitive to economic circumstances of country in that time.
Services •Growth The change in cement production is the main indicator of the growth of construction sector. in 2002 was 35,5 million tons in 2008 was 51,4 million tons in 2010 was 62,5 million tons
Services •Employment There is a shift from agricultural employment to services employment.
Durmuş Ali Battal E. Sena Kişi Mehmet Ali Öztürk Yusuf Ersoy
Content • Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 • Agriculture • Manufacturing • Services
Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 •Sectoral Shares Average share of agriculture in EU‐15 is 1,9% Share of agriculture in World GDP is 3% Share of agriculture in Emerging and Developing Economies is 8,2%
Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 •Sectoral Growths Growth in construction sector is 17,1%. The share in GDP is 5,6%. Growth in trade sector is 13,3%.
Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 •Sectoral Growths Looking at the sectoral distribution of growth: i.
increase in private sector’s investment in machinery and equipment
ii. increase in domestic consumption iii. contribution of manufacturing industry are the indicators of recovery.
Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 •Sectoral Employment Compared to the past year share in employment increased in Agricultural sector 0.6 point Industrial sector 0.7 point Construction sector 0.2 point Services sector decreased by 1.5 point
Landscape Analysis of Turkish Economy in 2010 •Sectoral Employment Unemployment: Unemployment rate decreased by 2.1% percentage and it is now 11.9%. Urban area decreased by 2.4% and is 14.2% Rural area decreased by 1.6% and is 7.3% Unemployment rate ; Within men decreased by 2.8 % and is 13.2% Within women decreased by 1.7% and is 20.2% Within young population is 21.7% however in 2009 it was 25.3 %.
Agriculture
Agriculture Growth in agricultural sector stayed behind 2008‐2009 global crisis’ growth 4%. In 2010 Turkish economy grew by 8.9% nevertheless agricultural sector grew by 1.6%. Turkish economy compensated last year’s depression, agriculture sector being the attractive power of Turkish economy faced a recession and regression.
Agriculture The difference between input and output prices led to an increase in input costs, especially in fruit, seed production. In some crops there are increases and this is a stimulus of 1.6% increment. For example while cotton was 80 kuruş it rised to 3 TL. Also 30% increase in profit of maize. On an aggregated level, the agrarian structure does not look very healthy with an average farm‐size of less than 6 ha. It indicates that the majority of farm households in Turkey is still based on low‐input semi‐subsistence agriculture.
Agriculture •Growth Increase in 1998 arises from augmentation in value added of farming and animal husbandry.
Weather effect
At constant prices
Agriculture •Productivity Value added in agriculture is highly sensitive through fluctuations in oil prices. Turkey is using more than two times energy resources to be able to produce the same product or services in Europe. According to Independent Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (MÜSİAD) agricultural sector report it is possible to increase 2.5 times in productivity and efficiency in many crops only by correct and enough irrigation.
Agriculture •Productivity
Productivity in regions is lower than West Europe by (per ha) ; 2 times in barley 1.5 times in sugar beet
Sugar Beet
Barley
Agriculture •Productivity
Productivity in regions is lower than West Europe by (per ha); 2.5 times in wheat 2 times in corn
Corn
Wheat: 226 kilos of wheat is cultivated per decare, in EU it is 540 kgs. According to Independent Industrialists and Businessmen's Association agricultural report world average por hectare in wheat is 2.829 kgs. In Turkey it is 2.124 kgs. In Ireland 9.924 kgs, in Belgium 8.981 kgs, in Namibia 8.889 kgs, in the Netherlands 8.862 kgs.
Wheat
Agriculture •Employment
Manufacturing
Manufacturing Reasons behind the decline; Speculative financial sector, Huge cash inflows High interest rate
Manufacturing •Growth
Manufacturing •Productivity Sub‐prime crisis
Manufacturing •Productivity
Sensitivity to financial crisis
Source: TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN THE TURKISH REGIONAL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES Metin KARADAĞ
Manufacturing •Employment
Services Services sector has the biggest share in the Turkish economy. Thus it is the main motivator of employment and growth. The share of services sector has the tendency to grow while the share of agricultural sector declines .
Services •Growth The contribution of services to economic growth is through trade, construction and transport. Highly sensitive to economic circumstances of country in that time.
Services •Growth The change in cement production is the main indicator of the growth of construction sector. in 2002 was 35,5 million tons in 2008 was 51,4 million tons in 2010 was 62,5 million tons
Services •Employment There is a shift from agricultural employment to services employment.
